Going to LAAA in 2018 - Shohei Ohtani

ehaz

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LAAAA should be in GFIN mode and try to get either Darvish or Stanton, right?
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Garrett Richards
Shohei Ohtani
Parker Bridwell
Tyler Skaggs
Andrew Heaney
Alex Meyer
Matt Shoemaker
JC Ramirez

Somewhere in that list of injury prone and project pitchers is an intriguing rotation that could be anywhere from pretty good to a disaster. I'm not sure whether signing Darvish or some other better known quantity is illogical or their best bet.

*
 

Sampo Gida

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Ohtani would be accumulating WAR as a hitter and a pitcher, although I guess little on defense. Still, 9-10 is hard to get to.
He will mainly be a DH which is a significant penalty of about -1.5 WAR per 600 PA. Hard to accumulate WAR as DH unless you are elite like Papi. Of course, teams likely know that WAR for DH is BS and disregard or discount the position adjustment
 

Sampo Gida

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Wait, what? If travel distance doesn’t make a difference why does spring training site make a difference? We’re going to compare weather in LA vs NYC/Boston?

Maybe he/his SO/his family has a fear of flight issue and that 4 hrs difference makes a big deal?

The character and makeup judgments/projections being made, purely because ‘he didn’t pick my team and why wouldn’t he if he wasn’t mentally soft’ are Johnny from Burger King - esque. String work guys and gals.
The differency from LA-Tokyo and NY-Tokyo is about 90 minutes. Thats in first class, sleeper beds, all the booze you can drink, etc. Talking 1 flight every 6 months.

ST in Florida requires many long bus rides, hours in seats not all that comfortable by comparison, no booze to relieve anxiety, etc. Miami to Tokyo is also hours further away than Phoenix to Tokyo. Maybe 3-4 hrs difference

Every team he considered does ST in Arizona. Discount that if you will
 

Granite Sox

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Rough break for Seattle, not only do they lose him but he goes to another team in their division. I think maybe the rumors that he wanted a team who hadn't had Japanese players before ended up being true.
Shigetoshi Hasegawa (pretty decent MLB career, also pitched for Seattle and others) says hello.

LAA is clearly the second team in town behind the Dodgers, not entirely dissimilar to the Yakut Swallows, Yokohama BayStars, or Chiba Lotte Marines playing second (third? fourth?) fiddle to the Yomiuri Giants.

1. They’ll let him hit, 2. His team has some good talent, but is in the shadows of a more popular team, 3. He’s as close as he’ll get to home and play in MLB, 4. There’s a significant Japanese population in LA.

Is it much more complicated than that?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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The differency from LA-Tokyo and NY-Tokyo is about 90 minutes. Thats in first class, sleeper beds, all the booze you can drink, etc. Talking 1 flight every 6 months.

ST in Florida requires many long bus rides, hours in seats not all that comfortable by comparison, no booze to relieve anxiety, etc. Miami to Tokyo is also hours further away than Phoenix to Tokyo. Maybe 3-4 hrs difference

Every team he considered does ST in Arizona. Discount that if you will
I'm sorry he didn't pick your favorite team.


 

Marciano490

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Maybe a dumb question - but he definitely breaks spring training with the major league team right?
 

Flynn4ever

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I love how at the introduction conference, his NPB team was constantly called the "Ham Fighters." Common misperception, the team is the Fighters, the corporate sponsor is Nippon Ham. Thank god we still use city names, I dread the day that the Prudential Red Sox take on the Molson Blue Jays.
 

jon abbey

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I love how at the introduction conference, his NPB team was constantly called the "Ham Fighters." Common misperception, the team is the Fighters, the corporate sponsor is Nippon Ham. Thank god we still use city names, I dread the day that the Prudential Red Sox take on the Molson Blue Jays.
My wife is a designer from Tokyo, and we have both always been amused by this, so a few years ago I got her to design a logo if they were really the Ham Fighters. Someday I will make 100 hats with this, I will definitely let people here know if I do:

 

SumnerH

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I think the answer is actually pretty simple. He's looking for as close a proximity to his home as possible while also weighing Japanese population within those cities. Here's a map from the 2010 census showing the density of Japanese ethnic populations:

Edit: Posted the wrong map and don't have time to dig it up again at work. The list of top cities for Japenese population when you pull out non-baseball cities is Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Chicago was high on the list in 2000 (9th), so is likely still near the top, too.
That's the Japanese percentage of city population, not the actual Japanese population.

For Japanese population among baseball cities, New York (44,000) is #2 after Los Angeles (135,000). San Francisco (39,000), Seattle (27,000), San Diego (19,000), Chicago (16,000), DC (11,000), Boston (8,000), Detroit (7,000), and Denver (7,000) round out the top 10.

http://proximityone.com/asian_demographics.htm
 

ehaz

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Garrett Richards
Shohei Ohtani
Parker Bridwell
Tyler Skaggs
Andrew Heaney
Alex Meyer
Matt Shoemaker
JC Ramirez

Somewhere in that list of injury prone and project pitchers is an intriguing rotation that could be anywhere from pretty good to a disaster. I'm not sure whether signing Darvish or some other better known quantity is illogical or their best bet.

*
Put me in the "disaster" camp. Even if Richards can come back and throw ~150 innings, LAA would be relying on too many JAG type pitchers for the 3/4/5 slots. None have ever thrown 200 IP.

Richards cannot stay on the mound.
Birdwell's FIP approached 5.00 in about 100 innings last season (only significant ML experience).
Skaggs has shown nothing and is now 26.
Heaney has thrown a grand total of 27 innings since a breakout 2015.
Meyer is a 27 year old former prospect that never panned out in ~ 90 career IP because he has control issues. Walked 6 per 9 last season.
Shoemaker is a good #4 starter (career ERA+ of 100, so exactly league average).
Ramirez has a career FIP of 4.89
 

H78

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I love how at the introduction conference, his NPB team was constantly called the "Ham Fighters." Common misperception, the team is the Fighters, the corporate sponsor is Nippon Ham. Thank god we still use city names, I dread the day that the Prudential Red Sox take on the Molson Blue Jays.
The Dunkin’ Patriots vs. the Trump, Inc. Jets would be fun though.
 

barbed wire Bob

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That's the Japanese percentage of city population, not the actual Japanese population.

For Japanese population among baseball cities, New York (44,000) is #2 after Los Angeles (135,000). San Francisco (39,000), Seattle (27,000), San Diego (19,000), Chicago (16,000), DC (11,000), Boston (8,000), Detroit (7,000), and Denver (7,000) round out the top 10.

http://proximityone.com/asian_demographics.htm
You also have to look at the demographics of Orange County, which is where the Angels are actually located. It’s Asian population is ranked as the third largest in the nation after LA county and Santa Clara and it’s growing. I think that was a big reason why the Angels went after him and a reason why he went with them.
http://www.latimes.com/local/orangecounty/la-me-asian-oc-20140714-story.html
 

jon abbey

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And now more info, wow:

"New Los Angeles Angels star Shohei Ohtani has a damaged ulnar collateral ligament, according to a physical obtained by Yahoo Sports, and underwent a platelet-rich plasma shot in October in hopes of treating the elbow pain caused by it.

Ohtani, the 23-year-old right-handed pitcher and left-handed power hitter who signed with the Angels on Saturday after a frenzied recruiting process, has a first-degree sprain of his right UCL, according to a report dated Nov. 28 and performed by Dr. Masamitsu Tsuchiya at Doai Kinen Hospital in Tokyo."

https://sports.yahoo.com/recent-physical-shows-angels-shohei-ohtani-damaged-elbow-ligament-035554341.html
 

jon abbey

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Passan with a whole article now:

"Here are eight major league scouts, seven of whom have seen Ohtani this spring, and the reports they shared with Yahoo Sports sound almost identical. They acknowledge his raw power and uncommon speed. They also believe major league pitchers are going to punish him with inside fastballs, that his swing contains flaws in balance and mechanics, and that he needs at least 500 plate appearances of seasoning in the minor leagues to give him a chance at becoming a productive major league hitter."

https://sports.yahoo.com/verdict-shohei-ohtanis-bat-not-good-023611674.html
 

jon abbey

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I think he's often wrong, but that is exactly what Keith Law said about Ohtani the hitter all winter, FWIW.
 

jon abbey

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Not rooting against this kid, but he is having a very rough time so far. Today he gave up seven earned runs in the second inning to COL, including HRs to Desmond and Arenado. So far this spring he is 2 for 20 as a hitter (.350 OPS) and has a 27.00 ERA, 2.2 9 9 8 2 5, 3 HRs allowed. Yoiks.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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So glad the Sox didn’t wind up with this guy. Save Ichiro, none of these guys have worked out even close to their hype.
 

EddieYost

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What is the definition of "these guys" anyway? Pitchers who started their careers on another continent?
 

jon abbey

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And Matsui and Ichiro did pretty well for themselves also.

Honestly as long as we're trying to become a better site, the lumping all Japanese players together would be a great thing to try to eradicate. That has bugged me for years (not just here) and I almost called out the post above last night but didn't, so I'm glad others kind of did. It's as lazy as comparing white NBA players only to other white NBA players, each player is different and sometimes those comparisons are valid, but sometimes they are not at all.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And Matsui and Ichiro did pretty well for themselves also.

Honestly as long as we're trying to become a better site, the lumping all Japanese players together would be a great thing to try to eradicate. That has bugged me for years (not just here) and I almost called out the post above last night but didn't, so I'm glad others kind of did. It's as lazy as comparing white NBA players only to other white NBA players, each player is different and sometimes those comparisons are valid, but sometimes they are not at all.
Is it lumping all Japanese players together or is it comparing the Nippon league to the MLB? One is valid, one isn't.
 

jon abbey

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It’s most definitely the former. Agreed that the leagues are wildly different and many guys have trouble adapting, but there are many possible trajectories for Japanese pitchers (or any pitcher), they don’t have to necessarily echo the careers of one of the few Japanese guys who have tried to make the transition before them.
 

Sampo Gida

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These are incredibly SSS. Consider his lack of work and repetitions which seem to be due to a designed go slow approach, and adjusting to a new culture, different ball and steeper mound I find it hard to get excited. Betts started 1-20. And Porcello got lit up in a couple of starts.

I would like to see him get more work in ST or perhaps start the season in the minors (unless they had a verbal not to do so) before seeing action in MLB.

Also if Scoscia plans to let him hit only twice a week in the regular season just end the 2 way player role now since that's not going to work IMO. Maybe he never was onboard with it.

Makes me wonder if Ohtani can return to Japan if he feels they breached a verbal agreement (minors, infrequent playing time as hitter, etc). Probably not due to the opt out fee
 

jon abbey

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First start today, pretty damn impressive. He gave up two singles and a HR in 8 pitches early on, but settled down immediately after, retiring 14 of the last 15 before leaving with a 7-3 lead after 6. But more impressive are these two stats:

Ohtani got 18 swinging strikes on 92 pitches, 19.6%. For reference, Corey Kluber led MLB last year at 15.6% and Gerrit Cole had a career high today with 21 swinging strikes.

Ohtani threw 39 fastballs, average velocity 97.8 MPH. That is higher than Syndergaard's first start.
 

Infield Infidel

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I just saw his two homers, not cheapies in the least, the first one would have been out last year before the lowered the wall this year. Different parts of the zone for both homers and had to make an adjustment up and away to hit the second one.
 

Apisith

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112mph off the bat. Hardest hit ball by Angel for a while. The power is legit. Let’s see if they find a hole in his swing.

Love the start he’s had! So exciting.
 

schillzilla

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May 11, 2006
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First off, glad NYY did not land this guy - I really am pulling for him to succeed. I am going to snag tickets when the Angels come to town. There are very few players I feel that way about. I remember Ichiro’s first year and he was a sensation- I did the same thing.

But this is a whole different level, if he succeeds, teams might be willing to take more chances on guys doing this. As well as players might have more confidence to attempt it. I just love this story for the game of baseball.
 

simplicio

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That's some easy looking power.

Man, that announcer is really locking himself into his Ohtani-san thing, huh?
 

Tokyo Sox

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That's some easy looking power.

Man, that announcer is really locking himself into his Ohtani-san thing, huh?
I heard that call on the first homer, has he done it on the next two? Because it was pretty damned annoying the first time. No one would ever call him that in any kind of a game or announcing situation. It sounds really stupid.
 

BigSoxFan

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I heard that call on the first homer, has he done it on the next two? Because it was pretty damned annoying the first time. No one would ever call him that in any kind of a game or announcing situation. It sounds really stupid.
Yup. So forced and contrived.