Gordon Hayward 2020: I'm standing here in pieces and you're having delusions of grandeur!

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Cellar-Door

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There is zero reporting around this today, is there? No idea whether that means anything but annoying!
Thing is there won't be anything to report until one of two things happens:
1. He opts in
2. The deadline passes without him opting in.

I would guess that if it's a S&T we don't hear much, word is that the NBA was most displeased with the Kings/Bucks trade that fell apart.

There's probably no market. Teams can just wait until tomorrow to make an offer without giving up anything.
I am sure there is a robust market of teams interested.

As for tomorrow, only 3 teams will have the cap space to sign Hayward and I doubt any are his preferred destinations.

Edit- Maybe Hayward wants to sign with ATL or NYK, but I doubt it. My guess is the deadline passes, he becomes a FA, then sometime between 6pm tomorrow and Thanksgiving he either re-signs with the Celtics or is S&T to his preferred team
 

PedroKsBambino

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I would think if there was active trade talks they would have leaked.
That's often the case and part of why I mentioned it. But, as we know, many times there are not leaks and so not really much we can conclude.

It remains a little odd they did the extension absent there being some set of trade discussions---but could have been about others and not Hayward directly too
 

BigSoxFan

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This just feels like an eventual departure. I say opt in and S&T. Feel like an extension would have happened already.
 

NomarsFool

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If he opts in, he can still work out a new deal (with the Celtics or S&T) right?

By opting in, the only thing he loses is the choice to sign with whatever team can pay him (which is almost nobody)
 

Cellar-Door

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This just feels like an eventual departure. I say opt in and S&T. Feel like an extension would have happened already.
If he opts in, he can still work out a new deal (with the Celtics or S&T) right?

By opting in, the only thing he loses is the choice to sign with whatever team can pay him (which is almost nobody)
Opt-in and sign and trade are mutually exclusive.
It's opt-in OR S&T not both.
 

NomarsFool

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If he opts in, I assume he and the Celtics can rip up the deal and sign a new one, right? Or is that not possible in the NBA?

And in both circumstances, why couldn't he be traded afterwards?
 

Cellar-Door

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If he opts in, I assume he and the Celtics can rip up the deal and sign a new one, right? Or is that not possible in the NBA?

And in both circumstances, why couldn't he be traded afterwards?
Nope.
He could sign an extension, but then he wouldn't be trade eligible for a few months
 

FredCDobbs

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Hayward may be better than Myles Turner, but am I the only person who would be very happy with that trade? Adding an athletic big who can shoot and is still developing and is owed I believe 3 for $54 is a huge win for us in my book. And we add what seems like a legitimate shooter in Nesmith who also adds size to our backcourt? Celtics fans need to buck the hell up. If Tommy can find happiness cheering on Waltah we can damn sure find it cheering on a team led by Jaylen Brown and Jayson freaking Tatum.

Edit: nevermind.
 

Cellar-Door

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Hayward may be better than Myles Turner, but am I the only person who would be very happy with that trade? Adding an athletic big who can shoot and is still developing and is owed I believe 3 for $54 is a huge win for us in my book. And we add what seems like a legitimate shooter in Nesmith who also adds size to our backcourt? Celtics fans need to buck the hell up. If Tommy can find happiness cheering on Waltah we can damn sure find it cheering on a team led by Jaylen Brown and Jayson freaking Tatum.
I think Turner would be getting 18M a year to be the 3rd best C on the roster. He's definitely worse than Theis, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Time Lord is better next year
 

nighthob

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Yeah, Turner's sort of a one trick pony. He's an MLE level player getting paid twice that. So for me the answer is dependent on how many picks Boston is getting to eat Indiana's garbage. Because Boston's better off with him leaving outright than having to make luxury tax choices due to Indiana's flotsam. Now if it was Turner/Oladipo, that's another story because you could probably spin VO into something worthwhile.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Maybe I’m off-base but I find it hard to believe that Hayward just walks outright to Atlanta, Charlotte, or NY. I know Hayward wants to maximize the earnings left in his career but none of those teams are even close to contending. My guess is that Boston will work hard to find a sign-and-trade that works for everyone but if they can’t find that they’ll just re-sign him themselves (unless they’re really worried about luxury tax or Hayward’s demands are just ridiculous).
 

radsoxfan

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Taking a step back, the fact that Hayward can even rationally opt out of 34M is pretty amazing after that ankle fracture/dislocation. Collecting that salary from his couch next year was definitely on the table a few years ago. Good for him.

I hope he stays at reasonable money to be honest, but a S and T to bolster the bench would also be a very good outcome.
 

NomarsFool

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It seems like he could be quite stuck now, though. I find it hard to believe he wants to go to those 3 teams. So, the Celtics can play hardball with whoever wants to acquire him, if they want.
 

BaseballJones

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To me the big piece of this - if I'm understanding things correctly, which I may not be - is that if Hayward signs elsewhere, the Celtics really lose a ton of financial capital. Because they'd not be able to sign a guy of Hayward's stature. The only reason they can overpay these guys is because the NBA rules allow you to re-sign your own guys and put you over the cap, and once there, you can trade with other teams as long as the salaries match. But if they lose Hayward, they no longer have that "over the cap" money to spend.

Do I understand this right?
 

nighthob

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Maybe I’m off-base but I find it hard to believe that Hayward just walks outright to Atlanta, Charlotte, or NY. I know Hayward wants to maximize the earnings left in his career but none of those teams are even close to contending. My guess is that Boston will work hard to find a sign-and-trade that works for everyone but if they can’t find that they’ll just re-sign him themselves (unless they’re really worried about luxury tax or Hayward’s demands are just ridiculous).
Honestly Indiana isn't close to contending either, so I don't think it's that important to him. I think he wants Indiana because it's home. But it's going to be tough to get there if Pritchard's offering pigshit to Boston to help the Pacers out. And while I don't doubt that GMs do each other favors from time to time, I also doubt that anyone does them to Pritchard because he's totally the type to welch.
 

Cellar-Door

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It seems like he could be quite stuck now, though. I find it hard to believe he wants to go to those 3 teams. So, the Celtics can play hardball with whoever wants to acquire him, if they want.
Not really. The NBA doesn't work that way, the guy is a free agent, he's not going to sign with you. He'd either sign with a team with space, or a team will salary dump to a team with space to make the room for him.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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To me the big piece of this - if I'm understanding things correctly, which I may not be - is that if Hayward signs elsewhere, the Celtics really lose a ton of financial capital. Because they'd not be able to sign a guy of Hayward's stature. The only reason they can overpay these guys is because the NBA rules allow you to re-sign your own guys and put you over the cap, and once there, you can trade with other teams as long as the salaries match. But if they lose Hayward, they no longer have that "over the cap" money to spend.

Do I understand this right?
That's right.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Hayward signing with another team as a free agent would be disastrous for the Celtics. Pray for a sign-and-trade.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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To me the big piece of this - if I'm understanding things correctly, which I may not be - is that if Hayward signs elsewhere, the Celtics really lose a ton of financial capital. Because they'd not be able to sign a guy of Hayward's stature. The only reason they can overpay these guys is because the NBA rules allow you to re-sign your own guys and put you over the cap, and once there, you can trade with other teams as long as the salaries match. But if they lose Hayward, they no longer have that "over the cap" money to spend.

Do I understand this right?
This is basically correct, though a clean opt-out with no salary coming back is better for the bottom line re: luxury tax, with Tatum's impending extension.

Since I do not care about Wyc's finances as long as they don't impact the Celtics, I am not rooting for that outcome. The NBA's luxury tax penalties are purely financial, unlike MLB.
 

AimingForYoko

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It seems like he could be quite stuck now, though. I find it hard to believe he wants to go to those 3 teams. So, the Celtics can play hardball with whoever wants to acquire him, if they want.
He can just walk if hardball holds up a sign & trade.

Which would be blech.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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It wouldn't be disastrous, but yes it would be not great.
The Celtics have no middle-market contracts they can use for additional moves outside of Smart who is valuable in his own right. Their salary distribution is imbalanced and they won't have cap space for a couple of years if they lose Hayward for nothing. This will create a scenario where Ainge has less flexibility. Not to mention the talent drain. It's one less asset.

He could still re-sign, which would be great as well.
 

Euclis20

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I think Turner would be getting 18M a year to be the 3rd best C on the roster. He's definitely worse than Theis, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Time Lord is better next year
I've seen this a lot, and I don't quite get it. Compared to Theis, Turner is:

-3 inches taller
-4 years younger
-A stronger shot blocker
-A slightly better 3 point shooter, on more volume
-More durable (3400 minutes over the last. 3 years for Theis vs. 5800 minutes for Turner)
-Much better at avoiding fouls

Theis certainly has his advantages, but considering his age and other attributes, it's pretty easy to see Turner being far more valuable going forward.
 

amarshal2

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At first I was pretty demoralized that Shams didn't say anything about what might be next and just reported FA. Seemed to hint towards him signing with one of the teams with cap space, which I have long thought and continue to think is the least likely outcome. I think the fact that Woj and others haven't done any reporting on this yet is becoming notable that they're working on a bigger story and don't have a clear picture yet. I'd rate S&T as most likely because that's the most complicated and is illegal to have already worked out. I'd rate a re-sign with Boston as less likely because that's the simplest and you'd think there's a good chance it would have been announced. Edit: I've been assuming that a re-sign would be worked out ahead of the opt-out because the $34M is a pretty good piece of leverage. It's plausible Hayward wants to get a contract offer from NYK to push Ainge's hand...just seems like Ainge would call his bluff.
 
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Cellar-Door

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I've seen this a lot, and I don't quite get it. Compared to Theis, Turner is:

-3 inches taller
-4 years younger
-A stronger shot blocker
-A slightly better 3 point shooter, on more volume
-More durable (3400 minutes over the last. 3 years for Theis vs. 5800 minutes for Turner)
-Much better at avoiding fouls

Theis certainly has his advantages, but considering his age and other attributes, it's pretty easy to see Turner being far more valuable going forward.
Last 2 years, I think it's clear Theis is better, and Turner is 6 years in and not showing any signs that he's improving.
36515
 

JakeRae

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The Celtics have no middle-market contracts they can use for additional moves outside of Smart who is valuable in his own right. Their salary distribution is imbalanced and they won't have cap space for a couple of years if they lose Hayward for nothing. This will create a scenario where Ainge has less flexibility. Not to mention the talent drain. It's one less asset.

He could still re-sign, which would be great as well.
This isn’t really true. The Celtics have 2 max contracts (starting next year) and a near max emerging young players in Brown. They also have a very good underpaid starter in Smart. If Hayward walks outright, they also have the full MLE available and will be pressed up against the luxury tax with a pretty good distribution of salaries. They don’t need Hayward’s salary slot and never could commit to it long term.
 

Euclis20

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Last 2 years, I think it's clear Theis is better, and Turner is 6 years in and not showing any signs that he's improving.
View attachment 36515
It's telling that you don't have per game numbers up here, because it's pretty slanted in Turner's favor. The fact that Turner played more than 50% more minutes than Theis over the last two years makes rate states close to useless. Two reasons why he played so few minutes:

-The Celtics got him off the floor quickly in unfavorable matchups. If we had Turner, he'd be less exposed against larger players due to his size advantage and we wouldn't be forced to give his minutes to players who are inferior in other ways.
-Theis fouls at an incredibly high rate. If you want to say he gets a harsh whistle I won't argue, but the fact remains, he averages 5.5 fouls per 36 minutes. He will always struggle to play more than 25 minutes per game with those numbers.

Turner averaged a full 10 mpg more than Theis over the last two years. Theis is the Celtics' best center, but his size and foul issues ensure that another player has to take his spot for at least half of the game. Turner would decrease the amount of time we'd be forced to turn to the backups significantly, and that has to be factored into a comparison between the two players.
 

mauf

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This isn’t really true. The Celtics have 2 max contracts (starting next year) and a near max emerging young players in Brown. They also have a very good underpaid starter in Smart. If Hayward walks outright, they also have the full MLE available and will be pressed up against the luxury tax with a pretty good distribution of salaries. They don’t need Hayward’s salary slot and never could commit to it long term.
Agreed. I think the opt-out extends the window — they avoid the luxury tax this season, and maybe in 2021-22, but they can contemplate giving Smart the near-max deal he’ll command in two years, which would be off the table if GH’s salary slot was tied up in other talent and the C’s had already been over the tax threshold in 2021-22.

Edit: I think an extension would already have happened, if it was going to. S/T could still happen, but Danny shouldn’t fall over himself to make it happen.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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Counterpoint: Turner is 24 and has played most of his career under Nate McMillan.
He can also play 30 minutes per game without fouling out. How many times in the playoffs did Brad need to go with some funky lineup becasue Theis had 5 fouls in the 3rd or whatever?
 

jmcc5400

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It's telling that you don't have per game numbers up here, because it's pretty slanted in Turner's favor. The fact that Turner played more than 50% more minutes than Theis over the last two years makes rate states close to useless. Two reasons why he played so few minutes:

-The Celtics got him off the floor quickly in unfavorable matchups. If we had Turner, he'd be less exposed against larger players due to his size advantage and we wouldn't be forced to give his minutes to players who are inferior in other ways.
-Theis fouls at an incredibly high rate. If you want to say he gets a harsh whistle I won't argue, but the fact remains, he averages 5.5 fouls per 36 minutes. He will always struggle to play more than 25 minutes per game with those numbers.

Turner averaged a full 10 mpg more than Theis over the last two years. Theis is the Celtics' best center, but his size and foul issues ensure that another player has to take his spot for at least half of the game. Turner would decrease the amount of time we'd be forced to turn to the backups significantly, and that has to be factored into a comparison between the two players.
I love Theis, but the thing that leaped off the page in that comparison to me was the fouls per 36. Turner stays on the floor and he gives them another body to throw at Embiid, Bam and AD. He would be a reasonable consolation prize if Gordon bolts.
 

scottyno

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He can also play 30 minutes per game without fouling out. How many times in the playoffs did Brad need to go with some funky lineup becasue Theis had 5 fouls in the 3rd or whatever?
Theis averaged 28 minutes a game in the playoffs this year and 4 fouls a game so probably not very many. Also if you traded Hayward for Turner today Turner still isn't playing 30 minutes a game with this team.
 

Jimbodandy

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He can also play 30 minutes per game without fouling out. How many times in the playoffs did Brad need to go with some funky lineup becasue Theis had 5 fouls in the 3rd or whatever?
That does happen.

I think that people are putting too much stock into Turner's stagnation in his age 23 year last year. The mix was obviously bad for him (good for Sabonis), and some of that is probably his fault. I just think that a mind like Stevens gets more out of a long guy who can shoot (.348 .357 .388 .344 last 4). FFS, the biggest complaint is that he's overpaid and isn't good at setting screens. How hard is the latter to fix? And with a better system and coach who knows how to use him, maybe he starts looking like an 18M player.
 

mcpickl

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I've seen this a lot, and I don't quite get it. Compared to Theis, Turner is:

-3 inches taller
-4 years younger
-A stronger shot blocker
-A slightly better 3 point shooter, on more volume
-More durable (3400 minutes over the last. 3 years for Theis vs. 5800 minutes for Turner)
-Much better at avoiding fouls

Theis certainly has his advantages, but considering his age and other attributes, it's pretty easy to see Turner being far more valuable going forward.
What in the world is this? The guy who played starter minutes over three seasons, is more durable than a guy who was a bench player for two seasons and a starter for one, because he played more minutes?

Even if you want to make the case Turner is more valuable than Theis, is he 3 years at 54 million vs 1 year at 5 million better?

It's a bad outcome for the Celtics if Hayward walks away for nothing. I think it's an even worse outcome if you take back a longterm contract you don't want to facilitate him leaving.

I'd make the case the Celtics might be able to get a better player for the full midlevel that would likely be available to them if Hayward walks than Myles Turner.
 

Euclis20

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What in the world is this? The guy who played starter minutes over three seasons, is more durable than a guy who was a bench player for two seasons and a starter for one, because he played more minutes?

Even if you want to make the case Turner is more valuable than Theis, is he 3 years at 54 million vs 1 year at 5 million better?

It's a bad outcome for the Celtics if Hayward walks away for nothing. I think it's an even worse outcome if you take back a longterm contract you don't want to facilitate him leaving.

I'd make the case the Celtics might be able to get a better player for the full midlevel that would likely be available to them if Hayward walks than Myles Turner.
It's not about "starter" minutes. Theis can't stay on the court, either because of matchup issues or because of foul trouble. He isn't getting any bigger, and he isn't getting any better at avoiding fouls (Turner has less of an issue on both fronts). Certainly Theis at $5M is more valuable, but the fact that he's an unbelievable discount doesn't mean he's actually a better player. It is a major point in his favor that Turner is able to stay about as effective as Theis while playing 50% more minutes. Maybe durability isn't the right word here, but we've got a pretty large body of evidence that Turner can be relied on to spend more time on the court without being exposed or getting deep in foul trouble.
 

mcpickl

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It's not about "starter" minutes. Theis can't stay on the court, either because of matchup issues or because of foul trouble. He isn't getting any bigger, and he isn't getting any better at avoiding fouls (Turner has less of an issue on both fronts). Certainly Theis at $5M is more valuable, but the fact that he's an unbelievable discount doesn't mean he's actually a better player. It is a major point in his favor that Turner is able to stay about as effective as Theis while playing 50% more minutes. Maybe durability isn't the right word here, but we've got a pretty large body of evidence that Turner can be relied on to spend more time on the court without being exposed or getting deep in foul trouble.
To the first bolded: That's not "durability" you're talking about then. And again, comparing a starters minutes to a guy who was a backup for 2 out of 3 years. is silly. Theis played 24 minutes a game this year as a starter to Turners 29.5 And Theis bumped it up to 28 in the playoffs. I see zero minutes issue with him, durability or otherwise.

To the second bolded: You original post said "it's pretty easy to see Turner being far more valuable going forward." So yes, I included each of their contracts in a discussion of who's more valuable. Because it matters. A lot.
 

Euclis20

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To the first bolded: That's not "durability" you're talking about then. And again, comparing a starters minutes to a guy who was a backup for 2 out of 3 years. is silly. Theis played 24 minutes a game this year as a starter to Turners 29.5 And Theis bumped it up to 28 in the playoffs. I see zero minutes issue with him, durability or otherwise.

To the second bolded: You original post said "it's pretty easy to see Turner being far more valuable going forward." So yes, I included each of their contracts in a discussion of who's more valuable. Because it matters. A lot.
Fair enough, not durability. I won't quibble with valuable (although that can mean more than money), but the rest I'll stand by. Turner is a better player because he's bigger, is better at staying on the court (for a couple of reasons), is a better three point shooter, is a better shot blocker (yes there's more to defense than shot blocking), and is significantly younger. I'm also pretty confident Theis has been put in a position to succeed the last few years playing fewer minutes against more favorable matchups with good coaching. I'm not sure the same can be said for Turner. Theis is absolutely as good as he's going to get, based on his age and limited minutes. Put him in a new system and Turner still has upside (and he's pretty solid right now).
 
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