Karalis was talking about Grant having a bad shoulder. I wonder if he will be on the injury report for tomorrow night.
Grant “Corner Office” Williams
- Thread starter NomarsFool
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FWIW, this is from a chat with Seth Partnow from the Athletic:
Vann the Red: I've seen everything from 4/48 to 4/80 thrown out for Grant Williams' next deal. What do you think he's worth, @Seth P, and what offer sheet would make you walk away? Bonus follow-up: can you imagine any team making that offer?
Seth P: 4/65ish seems right to me. Average starter is going to be making around $18 pretty soon and even though Grant is more situational than that, he's a well above average role player. You start to get up around $20 per year and I start getting twitchy about matching if I'm Boston. As far as who is going to make that offer? He was a great college player who has been a "winner" in the pros. Tell me that doesn't sound like an MJ special?
Vann the Red: I've seen everything from 4/48 to 4/80 thrown out for Grant Williams' next deal. What do you think he's worth, @Seth P, and what offer sheet would make you walk away? Bonus follow-up: can you imagine any team making that offer?
Seth P: 4/65ish seems right to me. Average starter is going to be making around $18 pretty soon and even though Grant is more situational than that, he's a well above average role player. You start to get up around $20 per year and I start getting twitchy about matching if I'm Boston. As far as who is going to make that offer? He was a great college player who has been a "winner" in the pros. Tell me that doesn't sound like an MJ special?
Well above average outcome for a second rounder, even just counting his time in Boston.Poor Semi. Guy has played a total of 400 minutes since leaving BOS and is now playing in Europe and he still gets shit on in this place
Plus he made 8M in the NBA....
In an alternate universe, someone with Semi's basketball skill/value could easily have made $0 in the NBA. Lucky Semi!
At least he gave the Celtics more than Guerschon Yabadabadoo. I will say, however, when Guerschon was playing for the French National Team after he left Boston, he looked a lot more like a player.Poor Semi. Guy has played a total of 400 minutes since leaving BOS and is now playing in Europe and he still gets shit on in this place
I remember this too: That Grant’s strength was marveled at and that was his biggest plus (although his emergence as a 3 point shooter from his office had been pretty awesome. Brick. House. Not sure why this previous observation about him has sorta disappeared, but I agree that its disappearance is notable. Familiarity breeding, er, forgetfulness?
As per what value that brings, I remain fine with saying: I dunno. What the market will bear? But I continue to think it should be considered in terms not of abstract player value but of replacement value in the playoffs. And, per above, RFA means that the Celtics get to see what the market values him at.
I thought there was something about him before the draft that he was really good at the bench press
I think your last sentence is right but missing an important piece. The Celtics want to get the market right because they want to offer him a contract at or slightly above market before he tests RFA. Like, the best scenario is (numbers don’t matter here except comparatively but this does reflect my valuation expectations), that the Celtics offer Grant 4/50, other teams top out at like 4/44, and Grant comes back to the Boston offer feeling like maybe the league structure is cheating him but that the Celtics were fair/generous. Now, maybe Grant gets like 4/60 and you happily match and maybe he gets 4/90 and you walk, but the concept should be to get it right initially because that leads to a player happy to take your contract after testing the market. So, if Grant is worth $20 million to the Celtics but no more than $12 million to anyone else, the ideal opening offer is around $13 million. In other words, let’s hope the Celtics don’t need to learn what the market values Grant at because that is lower than the Celtics are comfortable offering before the market speaks.
True, true. I totally agree: Happy players are good—and this seems to be among the happiest Boston teams I can recall—and it would be best if the Celtics “get it right.” That said, they still have the match and Brad seems to be phenomonally good with players, and he can say: “Do you think you’ll find a better situation? Know what?
“Why don’t you go talk to Al.”
Pretty much agree. I recall Marcus/Happy Walters struggling to get an RFA offer. Danny ended up paying a bit more than the low-end estimates. I'd expect Brad/Zarren to use that same playbook.
I love Grant but he is really struggling to even score complimentary/role-player points. He buried his first 3 last night and was hoping he regained his rhythm/stroke.
ALSO if he is going to hang his hat on defense he has to be a bigger nuisance & provide a little more defensive resistance. Embiid/Giannis can't go for 40pts, otherwise, he's nothing more than a body/6 fouls.
At this point, we're all hoping for a huge playoff performance otherwise this regular season isn't going to get him PAID..
I don't think this is quite fair, those guys are MVPs and put up 40 on a lot of good defenders, like Al Horford for example. C's approach seems to be to not overly double those guys and let them get theirs, but to limit the damage they do playmaking for others. Not surprising when they put up 40.
I thought Grant was better than Horford defending Embiid. A lot of those 40 came from Embiid dominating Al pretty hard.
I also agree with @benhogan that there's no way Grant is getting paid if his playoff numbers look like this. He'd be lucky to get 4/50, and I'm someone fine with paying him.
Agree.
In the playoffs, the proposition also becomes, "Can you (Embiid / Giannis) get to that level every game in a 7 game series with Grant banging you night after night?" Giannis finally, mercifully looked tired in G7 last year; Embiid has yet to answer questions about his conditioning, that he can last a full series. In this context, there's a big difference between a contested 40 vs. an easy 40 over smaller players.
Edit: it's funny to describe Giannis' G7 as "tired": 25 pts, 20 reb, 9 assists. But he was 10-26 from the field w/ 5 TOs. I remember watching and thinking "finally", which just goes to show what an amazing player he is.
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Grant definitely offered more resistance than Al last night, and Embiid will get his. BUT if he wants the $20MM/yr he'll need to be a bigger PITA to Embiid on the perimeter
Don't know how many were when Grant was in fact covering him, but Embiid had 28 points while Grant was on the floor
Right, a lot of those came with Grant covering the 4 and Al on Embiid. I remember watching a lot of plays and wishing the Celtics would put Grant on Joel instead, which they started to go to more as the game went on.
Looks like of Embiid's 12 made field goals, 8 of them came against Horford. Two each against Grant and White
Yup, matches the eye test. He also drew a number of fouls against Horford down low, and they were pretty much all legit fouls.
I think a lot of this had to do with Tobias having a night too. When the Sixers around Embiid are requiring attention this offense is lethal…..and we still came out of their with a W.
I forgot about that! In the Sixers game before this, Tobias was record-scratching every time he caught the ball on the perimeter, and totally bogging down the offense. In this one, he was decisive and effective, especially early.
I re-watched the game on NBA TV.
I stand corrected. Grant did a damn good job of pushing Embiid away from the basket. It led to a Jaylen strip and Joel settling for jump shots (which we always want)
I stand corrected. Grant did a damn good job of pushing Embiid away from the basket. It led to a Jaylen strip and Joel settling for jump shots (which we always want)
If they match up in the playoffs, I think we'll see Grant as the primary cover on Embiid. He holds him up better than Horford, pushes him out well, and gives double-teams more time to come.
Those pointz totals are really going to dampen his market. BUT he's invaluable for a team that's on the edge of a Championship when Philly, Milwaukee, and Denver could all be in the way. Sometimes he's unselfish to a fault, he's got a really nice 3-pt stroke.
He's going to have a long career if PJ Tucker is any indication
As we noted during the game, the list of NBA rotation players who can credibly guard Embiid and Maxey is probably not very big.
People keep fixating on Grant's offense but that's almost a bonus with him. His value is that he is a massive person with quick feet and decent defensive instincts who can punish you if you leave him. Those pieces are incredibly useful in the NBA and I would argue they have a robust secondary market.
I will be surprised if he doesn't get paid towards the higher end of estimates (and again part of this is informed by increasing value of franchises, the next streaming deal etc. Point is the NBA cost curve feels upward sloping). Imo he should.
People keep fixating on Grant's offense but that's almost a bonus with him. His value is that he is a massive person with quick feet and decent defensive instincts who can punish you if you leave him. Those pieces are incredibly useful in the NBA and I would argue they have a robust secondary market.
I will be surprised if he doesn't get paid towards the higher end of estimates (and again part of this is informed by increasing value of franchises, the next streaming deal etc. Point is the NBA cost curve feels upward sloping). Imo he should.
In theory, I agree. But how do you square with the way Brad/Zarren acted this summer? Wyc doesn't seem too bothered with paying a sizeable TAX after collecting for 10 years.
This is a time Brad/Zarren would have MUCH more inside information in regards to "increasing value of franchises, the next streaming deal etc. NBA cost curve upward sloping" than us. Maybe the recent RSN re-negotiations and Zaslav comments are indicative of those curves flattening? IDK, but this is something where Yielding to Authority makes a lot of sense.
At least two, maybe more, were drawn by Embiid going up with the ball while moving his arms and bending his body into Horford's space and upper body, like his shoulder. That can't be a foul, or if it is, has to be an offensive foul. Anybody else trying to go through their defender's shoulder to get a foul call wouldn't get it. Not even Giannis tries that.
So I dunno about "legit fouls". If I were Brad I'd be sending the league a video of some slow-mo selected camera angles.
I can’t think of a player doing this and there is a ton of risk but if Grant was willing to bet on himself could he look to sign a one year deal so he could be unrestricted next year? He would be giving up life changing money for the chance to earn more life changing money. It doesn’t sound like a great decision but Grant seems like a super confident guy.
Embiid completely initiated contact with Smart in the middle of Q3 (around the nail). It was clearly a charge, noted by JVG, and they called the foul on Smart (his 4th).
Not sure how Embiid and Harden both play over 40 minutes last night and only get whistled for 1 foul each.
Then again it was Mark Davis, so it shouldn't be shocking.
The Embiid/Harden performance art show is tedious, so glad the Celtics own them.
Agree that he's a guy who has value to a contender, but how many of those teams will have cap space to sign him? I don't think he'd fare well as a high usage guy on a poor team, so he's perhaps in a tough spot. Good for the C's as I think they'll have a good shot at resigning him reasonably.
Since there has been speculation in regard to the CAP figured I'd post this from the Athletic:
“We want to finish this deal soon and certainly want this wrapped up before the (March 31) deadline,” one high-ranking source involved in the players’ negotiations, “It’s close — we need to dot the I’s and cross the T’s.”
The NBA and NBPA are attempting to identify where the tax bracket tiers should be set — while maintaining the punitive state of the upper tax levels.
Since everything about these dividing lines is completely up for negotiation in a new CBA, the two sides can redo them to make a small dip into the tax more manageable and then step up the charges for those franchises willing to dive head first into the tax. Increasing each of the thresholds that make up the luxury tax (often called “bands”) that lead to steeper tax payments also makes sense with a league that has much higher revenues and thus a much higher salary cap than they did in previous agreements.
For the NBA, the issues of load management and resting among players and teams are core concerns, as well as the Diamond Sports’ Regional Sports Network and its economic model being able to sustain the broadcasting of 16 of the league’s teams.
The sides are also discussing several other core issues:
“We want to finish this deal soon and certainly want this wrapped up before the (March 31) deadline,” one high-ranking source involved in the players’ negotiations, “It’s close — we need to dot the I’s and cross the T’s.”
The NBA and NBPA are attempting to identify where the tax bracket tiers should be set — while maintaining the punitive state of the upper tax levels.
Since everything about these dividing lines is completely up for negotiation in a new CBA, the two sides can redo them to make a small dip into the tax more manageable and then step up the charges for those franchises willing to dive head first into the tax. Increasing each of the thresholds that make up the luxury tax (often called “bands”) that lead to steeper tax payments also makes sense with a league that has much higher revenues and thus a much higher salary cap than they did in previous agreements.
For the NBA, the issues of load management and resting among players and teams are core concerns, as well as the Diamond Sports’ Regional Sports Network and its economic model being able to sustain the broadcasting of 16 of the league’s teams.
The sides are also discussing several other core issues:
- Lowering the age eligibility for the NBA Draft to 18 years old, which would effectively end the one-and-done system in college basketball.
- Increasing the contract extension limits, which would add flexibility and have significant effects incredibly quickly. Under the current CBA, teams and players can only increase the player’s salary by 120 percent in the first new year of the extension unless that player qualifies as a designated player/rookie or makes well below the league’s average salary. Shifting that 120 percent to potentially 140-150 percent as the sides have discussed, according to sources, opens the door a lot more for players who signed contracts that eventually become below-market deals to get enough of a raise to commit ahead of time, a group that potentially includes O.G. Anunoby, Domantas Sabonis and Lauri Markkanen over the next few seasons.
- Smoothing out the process by which the salary cap rises instead of allowing the cap to spike, which occurred in 2016 and led to several overpriced contracts.
It really depends on how free agency plays out. If there are multiple teams left with a ton of cap space they are going to be looking to spend it. It’s all going to depend on where Grants falls in the pecking order.
One reason I expect Grant to receive a big offer at this point in time is due to my expectations of many FA remaining with their current team which only increases Grant’s value. If this doesn’t come to fruition than Grant is going to be in trouble gaining that big offer sheet.
I believe 8 Cap space teams could afford the $20M/yr Grant is rumored to be looking for. Of course, they may have a few players of their own that they'd like to extend.
Rockets ($61 million), Spurs ($40-48 million), Jazz ($31-45 million), Magic ($22-58 million), Hornets ($27-37 million), Thunder ($31 million), Pistons ($30 million), Pacers ($28 million)
Thanks for doing that homework. I just don't see spending $20m on Grant as a good use of resources for those teams, who I view as needing top end talent more than valuable role players. Maybe the Magic or Thunder, who are a little ahead of the others on the talent acquisition path. I guess Pacers too if they think Mathurin/Turner/Haliburton is a nucleus.
What if he’s the best available option remaining for the GM in need of improving his team? These are how markets are made.
It is also how GM's get fired. That list of teams should not be spending 20 million on a role player like Grant. He is what, maybe worth one win for an up and coming team?
GM’s need to add talent in the offseason or they will lose their jobs quicker. We’ve seen this for decades and smaller market lottery team GM’s have been overpaying for a long time to sell that improvement on their bosses. I don’t see why this wouldn't continue this year if the correct dynamic is there for a player like Grant.
He’s going to be in a volatile situation. Early on he’s not going to get an offer as a RFA so he’s relying on the market benefitting him with one of those teams I mentioned above knowing they have to be aggressive for the Celtics not to match……but he could just as easily not find a home to where the ball would be in Bostons court to provide him a reasonable deal.
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Yea, I've been a Granite stan for years and I don't see $20M/yr either. Neither did Brad/Zarren this summer.
He's been getting starter minutes and scoring 8.6ppg. It's tough to get paid without POINTZ
Does anyone think Grant has a higher standing than Marcus Smart had when he hit RFA?
Since Brad took over he
1. Immediately extended Marcus Smart
2. Extended Rob Williams
3. Gtd Horford before the playoffs last year. Then gave him a 2yr extension recently
4. Gave Hauser a 3yr deal
5. Gave Luke Kornet a 2yr deal
6. Traded for Derrick White who had 3.5yrs left on his deal
7. Traded for Malcolm Brogdon who had 3yrs left on his deal
8. Signed Gallinari to a 2yr deal
9. Recently traded for Muscala who has 1.5yrs left
Brad/Zarren clearly value continuity. I'm not questioning them on this, they've got Grant's RFA figured out.
Totally agree.
Ainge has spent much of his years, recognizing his job security/selling this to his owners, abusing GM’s who either needed to make a leap asap to save their own job OR were under mandates by their owners which imo occurs much more frequently than we can ever imagine. He did it in Boston and now he’s doing the same in Utah.
I agree with your overall point but quibble with it as it relates to Grant. Market lottery GM’s need to overpay for potential and players that their fans can project on. A player thay they can sell their owners and fanbase on as possibly becoming a main scoring option and/or All Star.
Grant is just not the type of player that a GM who wants to sell proof of concept or save his job would go after. He’s not flashy, his contributions don’t show up in the box score and his offense is entirely dependent on playing with other creators/stars that can “touch the paint”.
I think Grant is a good player and he very clearly has a role as a rotation player on any team but I really don’t think a team that’s in the lottery or not planning to really compete is going to blow their wad on him. My guess is that he comes back to the Celtics for a contract with an AAV of around 17.5. Maybe I’m wrong and Indy or Sacramento break the bank for him and Brad has a tough decision to make but I xotn see it
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Grant appears to have fallen to a matchup based end of rotation guy..
Played 6 minutes against IND (9th most)
Bounced back for 5th most (28 minutes) against PHI
Tied for 7/8 at 16 minutes against NYK
Currently working on a DNP-CD at the half against CLE w/ Celtics going 9 deep.
Played 6 minutes against IND (9th most)
Bounced back for 5th most (28 minutes) against PHI
Tied for 7/8 at 16 minutes against NYK
Currently working on a DNP-CD at the half against CLE w/ Celtics going 9 deep.
Yup, they clearly prefer Hauser and the guards when the other team doesn't have a scoring threat at big/big wing. Which makes not playing Grant more against Randle a bit odd, but everything else makes sense.
As Eddie said, the negotiations are starting now lol.
Grant got lucky Muscala didn't come in and start burying 3s. His first DNP in 2 yearsPhase 1 of contract negotiations.
Frankly, I would have rather seen a Muscala/Grant pairing to give TL/Al a blow rather than the 3 PG (Brogdon, Smart, White) rotation
We're going to see a lot of thought/consideration behind minutes & matchups over the final 20 games.
Fine-tuning for the playoffs
He’s pretty much sucked out loud since the break. I don’t know what he did during that week and I’ve spoken about some players, like Tatum, timing being off from not being on their regular routine but man…..Grant’s fall has been on another level.
Yea, I'm surprised you've been on the Grant is getting PAID bandwagon.
#8/bench players need to go "2019 Rozier/getting mine" to convince crappy-run organizations to pay up
Grant patiently waiting to launch efficient Corner3s isn't going to lead to lots of POINTZ, which is the magic elixir to NBA $$$
GW is a "match-up" based player, according to CJM. Joe liked using Muscala as his small-ball center with the 2nd unit.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bz4bx6BLXac
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Isn't the best parallel PJ Tucker? Tucker never got paid, because folks knew his ceiling. The longer Grant plays, the more obvious his ceiling becomes too?