Grant “Corner Office” Williams

[benhogan]

@benhogan and @Jimbodandy you are 2 of my favorite posters in MBPC. But where are all these mins that Jabari and Herno is getting that you want AN to get in stead? When did PP get alot more egregious mins then AN?

Garbage and position specific seem the real culprits. Jabari played center for a few mins when RWill was out (so we needed some Big man mins). And Herno played in Garbage time (Which I think AN did as well).

And PP played some "guard mins" which I guess AN could have done but its a bit out of his comfort zone bringing the ball up and iniating the Offense.

Maybe I missed it. Just what egregious mins are you claiming he should have gotten???

Is he supposed to play before Romeo? Richardson? GWill? Those are the guys he is competing with.

No one wants to see AN play and develop more then Me (and the rest of us.....either to become that sniper or that trade bait).
I am just not sure what Ime can do other then ask the opposing coach if he wants to play a 5th quarter.

Actually as crazy as it sounds I might like to see AN START instead of "Current" Jaylen. One I think Jaylen isnt adding much if anything (i could be very wrong....his defense at times last night was decent). 2 I think AN might benefit from the attention that JT, DS and Al can draw in various forms. 3 Finally I think for young players alot of success is actually momentum. Example last year with PP and "his first shot". Get AN in early when a possession or 3 wont kill you. Let me take a shot or 3 with JT drawing 2 or a guy dropping to double Al in the post.
I see this (being the 4th or 5th option as a starter) as better opportunity then trying to be the 2nd or 3rd option with the reserves.

All of that may sound insane...but basically I dont think AN has a current spot as player 6-9. But I do think he could Start instead of Jaylen.

Of course Jaylen would need to be (and perhaps should be....) on the shelf for this to happen.

Finally i have no idea of the problems with internal dynamics this would cause. Would Schroder freak out? Would Richardson? Is AN "showing the necessary effort" in practice for Ime to be able to do this?

But until Jaylen sits....not sure there is mins for AN starting or off the bench beyond the junk wing mins. So in that aspect I agree He should play in front of Herno and (position dependent) Jabari

I was talking about going forward (there were a few games that IME tried out Jabari/JH at the 5, but no big deal, its been corrected)

There are no minutes for AN (& barely any mins for Romeo or Kanter) with a fully healthy roster. BUT I suspect Jaylen won't go back-to-back in the next few weeks and we'll have some other players go down.

IME seems to be settling into a 9-man rotation on a nightly basis. With full health, I have AN at #11, so we'd need two guys to be out for him to get minutes.

There is so much positional flexibility with 1-10, you never really have to play PP ahead of AN. DS/MS/JR or a wing (even Al) can all initiate the offense

It's important to see if IME can get Aaron going before the trade deadline. If he can't, then Brad needs to add a sniper, but we'll never know if Nesmith doesn't get those loose minutes. I'm nowhere close to writing him off at this point

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Looking into it, Juancho has played 38:33. His biggest 2 man combo is with... Aaron Nesmith. 23:02 of his minutes have been with AN.

I guess there are some "minutes." That's 15:31 in 22 games. Nesmith wouldn't even be getting an extra minute a game.

Parker has played 76:07, 19:56 with Nesmith. Mostly all of Jabari's minutes come where he's the 5 though. No Rob or Al.

There just aren't minutes without injuries.

edit: Maybe with PP. Pritchard is at 157:34, 54:51 with AN. Not giving any minutes to PP could have got AN some burn. Talking about 115 minutes at best over 22 games. It's not nothing. It's not really something either.

 

[benhogan]

Looking into it, Juancho has played 38:33. His biggest 2 man combo is with... Aaron Nesmith. 23:02 of his minutes have been with AN.

I guess there are some "minutes." That's 15:31 in 22 games. Nesmith wouldn't even be getting an extra minute a game.

Parker has played 76:07, 19:56 with Nesmith. Mostly all of Jabari's minutes come where he's the 5 though. No Rob or Al.

There just aren't minutes without injuries.

edit: Maybe with PP. Pritchard is at 157:34, 54:51 with AN. Not giving any minutes to PP could have got AN some burn. Talking about 115 minutes at best over 22 games. It's not nothing. It's not really something either.

IME has been trying out different schemes, players so no sense in looking in the rearview mirror.

Looking forward over the next 30 games (up to trade deadline) he'll need to emphasize a few things. Like bumping AN, when guys are out.

The last 30 games will be about jockeying for position/finalizing rotations for the playoffs (which will be tightened further)

 

[Bernie Carbohydrate]

Talking about 115 minutes at best over 22 games. It's not nothing. It's not really something either.

Nearly starter minutes!

 

[lovegtm]

If Grant is going to keep drawing hard closeouts/tight coverage, and keeps playing D well, they need to find serious minutes for him.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

If Grant is going to keep drawing hard closeouts/tight coverage, and keeps playing D well, they need to find serious minutes for him.

He's averaging 26.6 over his last 10. He's already been playing serious minutes. If the team is fully healthy, it's as easy as going to an 8-9 man rotation.

 

[sezwho]

He's averaging 26.6 over his last 10. He's already been playing serious minutes. If the team is fully healthy, it's as easy as going to an 8-9 man rotation.

Yeah, very good stuff. When the season started, I imagine like most of us, I was hoping one of the youngsters would ‘make a leap’ but honestly I didn’t see Grant being the guy forcing himself into the rotation. Ime clearly did though, and has been giving him opportunities all season. Must have seen something in practice and last year’s 37% from 3 makes it possible his current nailz performance from deep isn’t a complete fluke.

 

[NomarsFool]

Between Grant, Pritchard, Nesmith, and Langford - I would have put Grant as 4th most likely to look like an NBA rotation player heading into this season, but at the moment he is trending in that direction.

 

[benhogan]

Between Grant, Pritchard, Nesmith, and Langford - I would have put Grant as 4th most likely to look like an NBA rotation player heading into this season, but at the moment he is trending in that direction.

You weren't alone, there was much worse, many had written him off (read the game threads to start this season).

He was only 18mths removed from being in the main rotation in the EC Championship playoffs.

6 weeks off from the Orlando Bubble and he showed up fat last year. He claims to have put on weight to play more Center minutes. A complete disaster of a decision by him? whomever? Someone miscast him as a small-ball 5, he's clearly a wing now at this weight. He's perfectly fine switching on to 5s for 10-15 seconds but you don't want him as your Center on the floor. IME has corrected that and it's been great to see.

He's back to his Orlando bubble weight and he's a slightly better version of bubble Grant.

CornerGrant & CornerRomero are very important to ball movement, those two give the JAYs/DS an easy kick-out pass when stymied driving in the lane.

 

[NomarsFool]

SSS is of course always misleading, but it is interesting that Grant Williams, at the moment, has made himself into an actually good 3 point shooter (he's just outside the top 10 in %). You always think that with practice, guys get better. But, it's of course one thing to get better, and a completely different thing to be among the best in the world.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

SSS is of course always misleading, but it is interesting that Grant Williams, at the moment, has made himself into an actually good 3 point shooter (he's just outside the top 10 in %). You always think that with practice, guys get better. But, it's of course one thing to get better, and a completely different thing to be among the best in the world.

And PJ Tucker right behind him at .431 (Grant is .432).

Right now the top 10 list doesn't really feature too many of the best in the world.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2022_totals.html#totals_stats::fg3_pct

 

[benhogan]

And PJ Tucker right behind him at .431 (Grant is .432).

Right now the top 10 list doesn't really feature too many of the best in the world.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2022_totals.html#totals_stats::fg3_pct

Grant is taking more 3s, in less time on the floor as Tucker

Plus PJ is cheating , firing 90% of his 3s from the corner. Grant hits on 54% of his corner3s after hitting them at a 45% rate last season

Mike has taken to calling him Ole Reliable which is pretty funny after watching him struggle last season

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Career 35% from three in the regular season and over 50% on SSS in the playoffs.

 

[bakahump]

I am a sucker for stupid shit like this but wasnt it DS that got pushed over (and I thought it was a medium push.....but not a shove) by Nurkic? Grant ("Stongest man in the Draft") Williams came over and stood up for his teammate.

Doubt to many guys want to mess with a pissed off Grant. Between him and Bruno we could throw down with any team in the league.

 

[benhogan]

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-news-stats-cole-anthony-grant-williams-javale-mcgee/

Boston Celtics big Grant Williams and Philadelphia 76ers guard Seth Curry are the only players in the 50-40-90 club from the field, three-point line and free-throw line so far this season.

While it’s not surprising to see someone named Curry shooting so well, it’s more surprising to see Williams on the list. Williams is averaging 1.37 points per possession when shooting off the catch, per Synergy, which ranks in the 95th percentile. Among those who have as many attempts, only four players are shooting better on catch-and-shoot jumpers.

But what’s most exciting is how much his three-point shooting is opening up the rest of his offensive game. Now that defenders have to guard him on the perimeter, he can use sweet pump fakes to fool his defender before driving to the basket for nifty floaters

Williams has improved as a shooter, indeed, but he is also 9-for-12 (75.0 percent) when cutting to the basket. Overall, he is shooting comically well near the basket, connecting on 22-for-26 (84.6 percent) of looks at the rim. That is the best mark among anyone in the league who has as many attempts in that zone.

He is doing nearly all of his damage from the restricted area or from the corners on the perimeter and his shot selection profile has been solid all season long.
On the other end of the floor, he is also an intriguing player on defense. Statistically speaking, based on a metric created by BBall-Index.com, Williams is actually one of the most versatile defenders in the league. While he is a frontcourt player, he is defending guards for more than one-third of his defensive possessions.

During the three games that the Celtics have played against the Toronto Raptors, Williams has defended the 6-foot-1 guard Fred VanVleet (who is in the midst of an All-Star campaign) for nearly 20 defensive possessions. When Boston faced Toronto on Nov. 28, during the two minutes that Williams was matched up on VanVleet, the Raptors star had two attempts from the field – both were three-pointers off the dribble on high pick and rolls – and he missed them both.

However, Boston is also using him on defense against talented bigs like Evan Mobley, Christian Wood and Julius Randle

Williams defended Mobley, the lengthy 6-foot-11 Cleveland Cavaliers big man and Rookie of the Year hopeful, for approximately 30 defensive possessions over the course of two games. He got his hand in his face to contest a three-pointer and he also gave him fits while defending him in the pick and roll.

He is a versatile, low-usage floor spacer in the frontcourt and that makes him essential to the Celtics.

 

[lovegtm]

Time to start playing "what would you extend Grant Williams for?" He's kind of a JAG, but he has the right JAG skills (defense and low/mid volume 3-point shooting). He clearly fits as a 4 and doesn't look too small there (he's still small, but not drastically so). He's not as lost when putting the ball on the floor. His shot seems real at this point. He's 23 since November.

The tricky part is that the upside isn't really there--his upside case is that he improves his ability to get 3s off and ups his volume, maybe adds a bit of competence getting the ball in space. What is that guy worth? $12-17M?

I'd probably be ok doing 4/32; more than that I'm pretty happy letting him go to RFA.

 

[slamminsammya]

Time to start playing "what would you extend Grant Williams for?" He's kind of a JAG, but he has the right JAG skills (defense and low/mid volume 3-point shooting). He clearly fits as a 4 and doesn't look too small there (he's still small, but not drastically so). He's not as lost when putting the ball on the floor. His shot seems real at this point. He's 23 since November.

The tricky part is that the upside isn't really there--his upside case is that he improves his ability to get 3s off and ups his volume, maybe adds a bit of competence getting the ball in space. What is that guy worth? $12-17M?

I'd probably be ok doing 4/32; more than that I'm pretty happy letting him go to RFA.

My concern with Grant is that we saw what happened when he had some extra weight last year, and it was terrible. Maybe he keeps the weight off, but the general point is he lives on a knife's edge of usefulness. If he gets a niggling injury and loses just a fraction of a step he becomes a big liability. I know this is true of a lot of bench guys but with him it seems especially pronounced. And as you mention he doesn't really have anywhere to realistically go from here. I don't see him adding the 3s off the dribble or really doing anything that isn't catch and shoot or just cycling the ball.

 

[benhogan]

Time to start playing "what would you extend Grant Williams for?" He's kind of a JAG, but he has the right JAG skills (defense and low/mid volume 3-point shooting). He clearly fits as a 4 and doesn't look too small there (he's still small, but not drastically so). He's not as lost when putting the ball on the floor. His shot seems real at this point. He's 23 since November.

The tricky part is that the upside isn't really there--his upside case is that he improves his ability to get 3s off and ups his volume, maybe adds a bit of competence getting the ball in space. What is that guy worth? $12-17M?

I'd probably be ok doing 4/32; more than that I'm pretty happy letting him go to RFA.

put a weight clause in it and get him to sign on the line that is dotted

his defense is underrated, so I'm sure you'll get pushback

 

[lovegtm]

My concern with Grant is that we saw what happened when he had some extra weight last year, and it was terrible. Maybe he keeps the weight off, but the general point is he lives on a knife's edge of usefulness. If he gets a niggling injury and loses just a fraction of a step he becomes a big liability. I know this is true of a lot of bench guys but with him it seems especially pronounced. And as you mention he doesn't really have anywhere to realistically go from here. I don't see him adding the 3s off the dribble or really doing anything that isn't catch and shoot or just cycling the ball.

Huh, my worries about him are more about upside than weight. When the team told him he was a 5, he put on weight and was bad. When they told him he was a 4, he lost weight and is good.

The fact that he was able to adjust his body relatively quickly like that is a positive sign for Grant imo, not a negative.

The upside that you're looking for is primarily 3-point volume. He has good touch and form, and already gets up 5.4 3PA/36. If he can take that closer to 8 while staying in the high 30s/low 40s, that's a pretty different player.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Huh, my worries about him are more about upside than weight. When the team told him he was a 5, he put on weight and was bad. When they told him he was a 4, he lost weight and is good.

The fact that he was able to adjust his body relatively quickly like that is a positive sign for Grant imo, not a negative.

The upside that you're looking for is primarily 3-point volume. He has good touch and form, and already gets up 5.4 3PA/36. If he can take that closer to 8 while staying in the high 30s/low 40s, that's a pretty different player.

Weird take. He's struggled with weight his whole career.

Plus is there any actual proof he was told to fatten up? If so, that person should be fired.

 

[tbrown_01923]

Told - not that I am aware of. but there is this:

“My rookie year, I had to gain weight to play the 5. Then I never lost that weight. Now, I’ve lost 12-15 pounds. I’ve got another 8-10 to lose to be able to play the 4 more,” Williams said at Media Day.

https://www.celticsblog.com/2021/10/3/22705925/grant-the-great-a-slimmed-down-williams-looks-to-bounce-back-in-year-3

 

[benhogan]

Weird take. He's struggled with weight his whole career.

Plus is there any actual proof he was told to fatten up? If so, that person should be fired.

Rick Barnes would tease Grant by eating donuts next to him while he jogged on the treadmill

He played 3 years at Tenn where he won SEC POY twice. Then Grant had a good rookie year, playing a rotational role for an EC finalist. Last year he came off a 6-week break from the bubble HEAVY (it was very noticeable) and had a terrible season. He claimed to have added bulk to be more effective at the 5. This season he came in lighter and picked up where he left off from the bubble.

So it's been 1 season where he struggled with weight, he had a flimsy excuse IMO. That's the last time he can claim the dog ate his homework

A weight/fat% clause in his contract (Smart has one) would be prudent

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Rick Barnes would tease Grant by eating donuts next to him while he jogged on the treadmill

He played 3 years at Tenn where he won SEC POY twice. Then Grant had a good rookie year, playing a rotational role for an EC finalist. Last year he came off a 6-week break from the bubble HEAVY (it was very noticeable) and had a terrible season. He claimed to have added bulk to be more effective at the 5. This season he came in lighter and picked up where he left off from the bubble.

So it's been 1 season where he struggled with weight, he had a flimsy excuse IMO. That's the last time he can claim the dog ate his homework

A weight/fat% clause in his contract (Smart has one) would be prudent

I guess he already outpriced himself out of Boston anyway. Kelly Olynyk land.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Time to start playing "what would you extend Grant Williams for?" He's kind of a JAG, but he has the right JAG skills (defense and low/mid volume 3-point shooting). He clearly fits as a 4 and doesn't look too small there (he's still small, but not drastically so). He's not as lost when putting the ball on the floor. His shot seems real at this point. He's 23 since November.

The tricky part is that the upside isn't really there--his upside case is that he improves his ability to get 3s off and ups his volume, maybe adds a bit of competence getting the ball in space. What is that guy worth? $12-17M?

I'd probably be ok doing 4/32; more than that I'm pretty happy letting him go to RFA.

I view him not too dissimilar to Olynyk and Big Baby. I want nothing to do with a 4-year deal for him to get fat & happy on (pun intended). I’d maybe do 2/20 to keep him movable as an expiring aside from that I’d be looking to include him in a deal this summer. I want no part of a long term commitment to a young role player with no upside to grow (full of puns today).

 

[the moops]

If he makes his next two free throws he will be back in the 50/40/90 club

 

[benhogan]

I view him not too dissimilar to Olynyk and Big Baby. I want nothing to do with a 4-year deal for him to get fat & happy on (pun intended). I’d maybe do 2/20 to keep him movable as an expiring aside from that I’d be looking to include him in a deal this summer. I want no part of a long term commitment to a young role player with no upside to grow (full of puns today).

He's more PJ Tucker than Big Baby/Kelly.

Depends on how you feel about having young PJ on your roster

 

[HomeRunBaker]

He's more PJ Tucker than Big Baby/Kelly.

Depends on how you feel about having young PJ on your roster

I’d characterize him as a poor man’s Tucker at this stage. The real Tucker has never signed a deal for more than the MLE.

I wouldn’t say a 4/40+ is egregious based on our salary structure without any young players due a big raise (sadly) but it’s not for me. I’ve never been a fan of signing young role players to long term MLE+ deals unless they have significant upside to grow into more. It’s just a bad way to structure your pay scale imo. That’s one of the things I loved about Ainge (and Theo for that matter). Pay/Overpay for impact players and utilize your scouting to find value on rookie deals/vet mins.

 

[benhogan]

I’d characterize him as a poor man’s Tucker at this stage. The real Tucker has never signed a deal for more than the MLE.

I wouldn’t say a 4/40+ is egregious based on our salary structure without any young players due a big raise (sadly) but it’s not for me. I’ve never been a fan of signing young role players to long term MLE+ deals unless they have significant upside to grow into more. It’s just a bad way to structure your pay scale imo. That’s one of the things I loved about Ainge (and Theo for that matter). Pay/Overpay for impact players and utilize your scouting to find value on rookie deals/vet mins.

4yr/$32MM was the deal propped by @lovegtm or just go to RFA

so we probably all agree that's where he belongs salary-wise & wouldn't be a problematic deal if he stays away from Chipotle

 

[Jimbodandy]

4yr/$32MM was the deal propped by @lovegtm or just go to RFA

so we probably all agree that's where he belongs salary-wise & wouldn't be a problematic deal if he stays away from Chipotle

Guy is switchable onto 1s now and bugged the shit out of a pretty good handle on Anthony last night. I'm not looking to throw money at him, but we need to get over the ptsd of his stay-puft year.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I've been saying it in game threads for a while, but Grant is so, so underutilized in the post when he has the right matchup, and shockingly, I found some stats to back it up. Of course, we're talking about an insanely small sample. They give him basically one post-up opportunity every 5 games, but he's tied for #2 in the league at 1.5ppp, tied for 1st in scoring frequency at 75%, #6 in FT frequency at 33.3% and he has zero turnovers in those moments.

Obviously, it's hard to gauge anything on that little usage, but IMO, it passes the eye test. In the right matchups, he can post up and has more moves down there than anyone on the team, IMO. He doesn't just need to be a floor spacer on offense.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I've been saying it in game threads for a while, but Grant is so, so underutilized in the post when he has the right matchup, and shockingly, I found some stats to back it up. Of course, we're talking about an insanely small sample. They give him basically one post-up opportunity every 5 games, but he's tied for #2 in the league at 1.5ppp, tied for 1st in scoring frequency at 75%, #6 in FT frequency at 33.3% and he has zero turnovers in those moments.

Obviously, it's hard to gauge anything on that little usage, but IMO, it passes the eye test. In the right matchups, he can post up and has more moves down there than anyone on the team, IMO. He doesn't just need to be a floor spacer on offense.

Context like this is important on guys like Grant, Romeo, Rozier when he was here, etc. The stats alone don’t account for their role and/or usage on a particular team. You’ve obv been watching this more carefully than I have but generally speaking I’d say that if you notice off the ball actions where you see a matchup that isn’t utilized and is backed by data of times when it is utilized…..there may be something to it. Good stuff.

 

[Just a bit outside]

Grant had Okeke on him last night and abused him in the post. I mean he just bullied him and scored easily. The Celtics then proceeded to completely ignore the matchup and hoist threes on the following possessions. Grant is matchup dependent in the post and has difficulty if he is the smaller guy but destroys when the matchup is in his favor.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I've been saying it in game threads for a while, but Grant is so, so underutilized in the post when he has the right matchup, and shockingly, I found some stats to back it up. Of course, we're talking about an insanely small sample. They give him basically one post-up opportunity every 5 games, but he's tied for #2 in the league at 1.5ppp, tied for 1st in scoring frequency at 75%, #6 in FT frequency at 33.3% and he has zero turnovers in those moments.

Obviously, it's hard to gauge anything on that little usage, but IMO, it passes the eye test. In the right matchups, he can post up and has more moves down there than anyone on the team, IMO. He doesn't just need to be a floor spacer on offense.

It makes sense. Grant was a big who could post up in college. Both he and Marcus are good in the post (to pass or score) when they have the right matchup.

I like Grant and I think I would sign him for 4, $32M.

Grant had Okeke on him last night and abused him in the post. I mean he just bullied him and scored easily. The Celtics then proceeded to completely ignore the matchup and hoist threes on the following possessions. Grant is matchup dependent in the post and has difficulty if he is the smaller guy but destroys when the matchup is in his favor.

This is a thing an offensively-challenged team like the C's needs to do more of - when there's a good matchup, keep going back to it. Sure, the D will adjust and stop it, but until they do, take the points.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

It makes sense. Grant was a big who could post up in college. Both he and Marcus are good in the post (to pass or score) when they have the right matchup.

He was even good in the post against guys bigger than he was. Watch the clips below (his defense ability down low was outrageous at Tennessee too, which is probably what Danny saw in him in the first place):

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwZ2csGMc-4

 

[slamminsammya]

I've been saying it in game threads for a while, but Grant is so, so underutilized in the post when he has the right matchup, and shockingly, I found some stats to back it up. Of course, we're talking about an insanely small sample. They give him basically one post-up opportunity every 5 games, but he's tied for #2 in the league at 1.5ppp, tied for 1st in scoring frequency at 75%, #6 in FT frequency at 33.3% and he has zero turnovers in those moments.

Obviously, it's hard to gauge anything on that little usage, but IMO, it passes the eye test. In the right matchups, he can post up and has more moves down there than anyone on the team, IMO. He doesn't just need to be a floor spacer on offense.

Two things - one is that his efficiency is mostly a function of his selection of when he tries to post up, which is exclusively when he has a serious mismatch. The other is that I think NBA teams have gone away from post play for a mostly good reason, which is that it isn't that efficient even if you're good at it since it leads to lots of turnovers and its hard to find big guys who are good at passing out of help.

I think most defenses would be happy to see the Celtics feeding him down low.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

…

I think most defenses would be happy to see the Celtics feeding him down low.

Not if he were to score at a 60%+ clip, right? It’s all about maximizing efficient opportunities.

 

[slamminsammya]

Not if he were to score at a 60%+ clip, right? It’s all about maximizing efficient opportunities.

He wouldn't be scoring at a 60% clip at any meaningful volume, in my opinion.

EDIT: Adding some statistical context to that argument, you can see post up stats here . What they show are that guys who have > 2 possessions per game posting up basically top out at scoring 60% of the time - these are your Lebrons, Jarret Allen is weirdly in there, Durant. Lebron and Durant are actually at 55%. Embiid is a freak posting up 8 times a game and he scores 54% of the time.

I don't see Grant being above 55% at any volume greater than "once every couple of games".

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

He wouldn't be scoring at a 60% clip at any meaningful volume, in my opinion.

EDIT: Adding some statistical context to that argument, you can see post up stats here . What they show are that guys who have > 2 possessions per game posting up basically top out at scoring 60% of the time - these are your Lebrons, Jarret Allen is weirdly in there, Durant. Lebron and Durant are actually at 55%. Embiid is a freak posting up 8 times a game and he scores 54% of the time.

I don't see Grant being above 55% at any volume greater than "once every couple of games".

That’s fair. I think people are just saying that we need to recognize it when it’s there and not be afraid of forcing a defensive change. So maybe once every 2-3 games, we get and exploit an advantage for 2-3 straight possessions.

 

[lovegtm]

Pretty likely Grant gets extended after all these moves now, barring including him as an asset in a trade this summer.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Lately, Grant has been effectively driving closeouts. Not something he did last year or even the early part of this year. And a few games ago he even managed a dribble sidestep corner 3.

 

[benhogan]

Lately, Grant has been effectively driving closeouts. Not something he did last year or even the early part of this year. And a few games ago he even managed a dribble sidestep corner 3.

His perimeter defense has also been solid, he can get better. Don't buy into all that low ceiling talk

 

[NomarsFool]

It's amazing how much better he is this season on defense, especially against smaller / quicker players.

 

[lovegtm]

Grant's extension price is going to get expensive fast if he keeps playing D like this, shooting, and now starting to add off-the-bounce stuff.

I imagine the plan is to not offer an extension until they see whether he's needed in a trade as an asset. If he doesn't get moved, I'm starting to think that a 4/50 contract would still be a positive, easily moveable asset, although obviously lower would be better.

 

[benhogan]

Grant's extension price is going to get expensive fast if he keeps playing D like this, shooting, and now starting to add off-the-bounce stuff.

I imagine the plan is to not offer an extension until they see whether he's needed in a trade as an asset. If he doesn't get moved, I'm starting to think that a 4/50 contract would still be a positive, easily moveable asset, although obviously lower would be better.

Not being a starter should dampen his price a hair and he probably doesn't get TL level $$$. Something like the 4/32MM you originally propped is where they probably start negotiations. A lot of it depends on where the CAP is going in the next few years? These extensions (Smart/TL) play well with a CAP that has been flattish and due for an upward kink.

I do think we can comfortably say he is a knockdown Corner3 shooter. I'd like to see Granite continue to shave pounds and get back his college hops/quickness. That would only help his perimeter D and rim closeouts from the corner. Whoever suggested he gain weight to play the post last season should be taken out behind the barn.

As far as the PJ Tucker comps. PJ didn't start playing in the NBA until he was 27 and spent his first 5 seasons shooting 3's at a 35% clip (on 2.3 attempts/game)

 

[lovegtm]

Not being a starter should dampen his price a hair and he probably doesn't get TL level $$$. Something like the 4/32MM you originally propped is where they probably start negotiations. A lot of it depends on where the CAP is going in the next few years? These extensions (Smart/TL) play well with a CAP that has been flattish and due for an upward kink.

I do think we can comfortably say he is a knockdown Corner3 shooter. I'd like to see Granite continue to shave pounds and get back his college hops/quickness. That would only help his perimeter D and rim closeouts from the corner. Whoever suggested he gain weight to play the post last season should be taken out behind the barn.

As far as the PJ Tucker comps. PJ didn't start playing in the NBA until he was 27 and spent his first 5 seasons shooting 3's at a 35% clip (on 2.3 attempts/game)

I sort of like the macroeconomic bet that the debt+fiscal situation will force continued devaluation of the dollar, and would like to bet on the cap rising significantly due to that. That's as far as I'll go without violating my commitment to never post on V&N here.

The PJ comparison feels off to me now that Grant is defending perimeter players as well as he is. "Longer Jae Crowder with a much better shot" feels closer, and a below-market contract for him could become as good as Jae's was.

Worth noting that Jae's 5/35 came with a much lower cap, so it would be more like a 5/55 now.

 

[benhogan]

I sort of like the macroeconomic bet that the debt+fiscal situation will force continued devaluation of the dollar, and would like to bet on the cap rising significantly due to that. That's as far as I'll go without violating my commitment to never post on V&N here.

The PJ comparison feels off to me now that Grant is defending perimeter players as well as he is. "Longer Jae Crowder with a much better shot" feels closer, and a below-market contract for him could become as good as Jae's was.

Worth noting that Jae's 5/35 came with a much lower cap, so it would be more like a 5/55 now.

Jae Crowder, that's an interesting "new comp". Agree that a slimmer Grant could get there (w/better 3pt shooting). Bringing JC into the discussion should awaken the other Cellar Dwellers

Yea there is inflation everywhere, NBA players will want their cut. The new TV contract will put the CAP on steroids at some point.

@nighthob usually has the best take on present/future salary CAP implications in the Time of COVID. This is what I dug up from last week:

The NBA has informed teams of the projected salary cap and luxury tax levels for the 2022-23 season: $121 million and $147 million, respectively, sources tell The Athletic. Both are $2 million higher than previous estimates.
The new salary cap figures would be an increase of 7.6 percent compared to this season. The salary cap for 2021-22 was set at $112.4 million, while the luxury tax was $136.6 million.

 

[Buster Olney the Lonely]

Comparing rate stats at the same age:
Jae Crowder (age 23):
16.1 MPG, .439 FG%, .331 3PTFG%, .754 FT%

Grant Williams (age 23):
22.8 MPG, .481 FG%, .431 3PTFG%, .896 FT%

 

[Eddie Jurak]

View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1493814989773234176?s=20&t=qzd01OxFuPxN_ibO_9haJA

Sean Grande: NBA - 3-POINT SHOOTING LEADERS

1. P.J. Tucker, Mia .455
2. GRANT WILLIAMS, BOS .441

Grant is now up to 37.5% for his career from behind the arc, even with the 0 for 25 debut. He may not be a true talent 0.441 shooter from three, but I think we can be reasonably confident that he is at least a true talent 37.5% shooter from three, which is good.

 

[benhogan]

View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1493814989773234176?s=20&t=qzd01OxFuPxN_ibO_9haJA

Sean Grande: NBA - 3-POINT SHOOTING LEADERS

1. P.J. Tucker, Mia .455
2. GRANT WILLIAMS, BOS .441

Grant is now up to 37.5% for his career from behind the arc, even with the 0 for 25 debut. He may not be a true talent 0.441 shooter from three, but I think we can be reasonably confident that he is at least a true talent 37.5% shooter from three, which is good.

38.4% if you include his entire NBA career (playoff games)

41.4% over the last 2 seasons

45% from Corner3s over his entire career. 51.7% this season. The Corner3 spreads the floor, defense bending and needed next to the JAYs

Repeatable pocket, getting quicker, the man needs more shots/minutes.

I'd go a step further and say he's comfortably a 40% 3-pt shooter going forward.

 

[lovegtm]

Price keeps going up...