Greinke Opting Out

glennhoffmania

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No big surprise.
 
Zack Greinke will opt out of a contract that has $71 million over three years remaining, according to sources, and one GM suggested he should get multiple offers for $125 million over five years, at a minimum, with the likely winning bid at about $150 million over five years, or perhaps even more.
 
That is even better than the $147 million, six-year deal he got three years ago from LA. That was a deal that turned out to work for everyone.
 
 
Texas, which could lose freee agent Yovani Gallardo, finished second last time for Greinke and was willing to offer a similar number to the Dodgers' winning bid. Atlanta seems to make geographic sense as they train in Greinke's home area of Orlando (and play not too far away) but he may be a bit pricey for them.
 
 
 
 

BaseballJones

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What do you think he'll get in free agency?  5/125?  5/150?  Will someone have to go as high as 6 years for him?
 
If I'm the Red Sox I don't get involved in these sweepstakes, I don't think.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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soxhop411 said:
Does opting out mean he will not cost a draft pick?
I believe they can still give him the QO.

He's going back to LA probably for another 150
 

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BaseballJones said:
What do you think he'll get in free agency?  5/125?  5/150?  Will someone have to go as high as 6 years for him?
 
If I'm the Red Sox I don't get involved in these sweepstakes, I don't think.
 
Funny, I think he becomes our prime target.
 
He's pitching at a high level. He's right handed. He's as young as he can be and still be over 30. He's not just riding one excellent season. I'm willing to give up a pick for him.
 
Plus all our kids are lefties. I don't want to end up with a rotation that's too lefty heavy.
 

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BaseballJones said:
What do you think he'll get in free agency?  5/125?  5/150?  Will someone have to go as high as 6 years for him?
 
If I'm the Red Sox I don't get involved in these sweepstakes, I don't think.
 
The Red Sox should absolutely be involved in this. They need an ace and he is clearly the best on the market. If 5 years / $150 gets it done, the Sox should be all over that.
 

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Greinke is about to turn 32.  But I'd rather give him 6/150 than give a 30 year old Cueto, a 30 year old Price, or a 30 year old Zimmermann 8/200+.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Rasputin said:
 
Funny, I think he becomes our prime target.
 
He's pitching at a high level. He's right handed. He's as young as he can be and still be over 30. He's not just riding one excellent season. I'm willing to give up a pick for him.
 
Plus all our kids are lefties. I don't want to end up with a rotation that's too lefty heavy.
I think Price is the top choice. No compensation and younger. I'm still uneasy about putting Greinke in this market because of his past anxiety disorders. Maybe he's completely over it but I don't want to take the risk.
 

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Ten years ago, someone would've given Greinke Scherzer-type money, but I think everyone is smart enough now to discount his .229 BABIP this season and to take into account the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium. So notwithstanding the fact that he's likely to be the Cy Young runner-up (and might even win the award), I think he'll be valued roughly in line with Jon Lester -- Greinke's numbers are better than Lester's were a year ago, but he's also a year older. My guess is Greinke will opt for the biggest pile of money, if he gets 5 years, it will be at a higher AAV than Lester, but i think someone will offer 6/150, and he'll take it.

I also think Friedman would prefer to sign Price and pocket the pick for Greinke, but that's just a wild-ass guess.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Yeah, I'd prefer a 30-year old price and keeping the 1st rounder instead of a 32-year old Greinke and losing a 1st rounder.
 
Plus I have no problem with a lot of lefties, especially considering that our consistent rival over the next 5 years may still be the Yankees. They have a stadium that demands they have lefty hitters.
 

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Tyrone Biggums said:
I think Price is the top choice. No compensation and younger. I'm still uneasy about putting Greinke in this market because of his past anxiety disorders. Maybe he's completely over it but I don't want to take the risk.
There's some solid reasons to not go after Greinke, but this isn't one of them. 
 

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The reason I like Greinke is that he's a smart pitcher who is constantly refining/perfecting his stuff.  With this approach, he should continue to pitch at a high level for as long as he remains healthy.
 
The reason I am wary of Greinke is nothing more than his age and the mileage on his arm.  But I'd give him five or six years at the figures being thrown around.
 
 
Tyrone Biggums said:
I think Price is the top choice. No compensation and younger. I'm still uneasy about putting Greinke in this market because of his past anxiety disorders. Maybe he's completely over it but I don't want to take the risk.
 
We should absolutely investigate whether anxiety disorders are the reason that David Price appears unable to perform in the postseason.
 

grimshaw

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The length really depends on who signs first this offseason, but I think he'll get more like 6/170 or 180 due to some market inflation.  He is close to on par with Scherzer but one year older so maybe gets 1 fewer year.
 
Edit:  Just saw he was going to be 32, so readjusted.
 

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I would be very happy if Greinke ends up being the ace the Sox go after, if indeed that is the plan that they are committed to (and it seems like it is). If 5/125 got it done I would sign that deal today, and probably the same is true for 5/135. If it goes to 6 or 7 years I might hesitate, but not if the alternative is Price at 7 or 8 years, as I would rather have Greinke over that stretch. Plus, for all that you can see his past anxiety issues as a problem, they also kept some mileage off his arm, so it's a little like he is a year younger in that regard.
 

JimBoSox9

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MakMan44 said:
There's some solid reasons to not go after Greinke, but this isn't one of them. 
 
You can't pretend it's not a risk factor they're going to consider.  Making a definitive statement on what the actual cause and effect would end up being, however, is armchair psychology at its finest.  It's a coin flip.
 

mauf

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Greinke's past issues with anxiety should be no more of a factor than Lester's lymphoma.
 
Now, if you want to talk about how Greinke's interviews resemble Nuke LaLoosh's, I can understand why you might think that would be a bigger problem in a large, East Coast market like Boston than it has been in Los Angeles, Kansas City, or Milwaukee. He might not be the best fit for this market, especially if the contract he'd receive would create the expectation that he'll be the face of the franchise, or at least its pitching staff.
 
(Full disclosure: Greinke is one of my favorite non-Sox players and I would love to see him play here, even as I realize that committing $150mm to a 32-year old pitcher is seldom a wise move.)
 

MakMan44

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JimBoSox9 said:
 
You can't pretend it's not a risk factor they're going to consider.  Making a definitive statement on what the actual cause and effect would end up being, however, is armchair psychology at its finest.  It's a coin flip.
Of course it's something the Sox will consider. I seriously doubt it would stop them from making a run at Greinke though. 
 

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A couple of things to keep in mind about Greinke:
 
1. He has expressed his love for taking his turn in the batter's box. Sure, staying in the NL allows him to pitch against 8/9ths of the lineups of the AL, but he has said on multiple occasions that he prefers the overall NL game, including getting a chance to hit.
 
2. He is an organizational nerd of the highest order. On his own, he has scouted players, watched film, etc. He's really into that aspect of the game; so a strong selling point could be encouraging that sort of participation.
 
If he doesn't stay in LA (and with Friedman, it's the sort of org that Greinke might prefer), I agree with the above that Atlanta seems like a solid choice. So would the Cubs
 

Tyrone Biggums

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MakMan44 said:
There's some solid reasons to not go after Greinke, but this isn't one of them. 
So you would feel okay investing 150 million over 5 years in a pitcher who almost had to retire due to anxiety? Not to mention that he would be in one of the biggest pressure cooker markets out there. LA could care less about sports teams outside of maybe the Lakers. They get to the park late and leave early that's no comparison to places like Boston NY or Philly.
 

MakMan44

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Tyrone Biggums said:
So you would feel okay investing 150 million over 5 years in a pitcher who almost had to retire due to anxiety? Not to mention that he would be in one of the biggest pressure cooker markets out there. LA could care less about sports teams outside of maybe the Lakers. They get to the park late and leave early that's no comparison to places like Boston NY or Philly.
Yes. I see no reason to suggest that his anxiety is going to be any more of factor here than has been in LA. 
 

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The reason I like Greinke is that he's a smart pitcher who is constantly refining/perfecting his stuff.  With this approach, he should continue to pitch at a high level for as long as he remains healthy.
 
The reason I am wary of Greinke is nothing more than his age and the mileage on his arm.  But I'd give him five or six years at the figures being thrown around.
 

That's why I like him, too. 
 
Among all the FA starters available this winter, I think Greinke's got the best potential to actually be performing at a high level at the end of his contract.
 
I also want the Sox to acquire a RHP starter, and would probably be happy enough with either Greinke or Cueto on a 5-6 year deal.
 

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Maybe its good if he almost retired before. If he starts to go downhill fast he may just retire and save the Sox a lot of money instead of hanging on for the cash
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
I'd take my chances on Price before I went for Greinke.  Price is younger and has pitched well in the AL East for almost all of his career.  
 
Well, except for the fact that he often struggles against the Yankees, despite being a lefty...
 
I hope the Sox have seen the folly of the "no aces" strategy in the current pitching dominated MLB, and go after Greinke hard if he can be had on a 5 or 6 year deal, now that he has opted out....
 

soxhop411

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Tyrone Biggums said:
I believe they can still give him the QO.

He's going back to LA probably for another 150
Thats why I think they go after Price instead... We have a pretty high draft pick
 

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One could very reasonably look at the fact that Greinke had a severe anxiety disorder and seems to have very successfully dealt with it/battled through it as a sign of toughness and as an ability to deal with adversity. I mean, give me the guy who had all the crap on earth thrown at him and still found a way to put up those numbers. But none of us know him, so who knows?  Hopefully they ask around, follow him, look in his trash; you know, the usual.
 
I am actually more concerned about Price's ability to deal with any negativity from the Boston media/fandom since he seems to get so prickly whenever things don't go his way.  I'd prefer he play in one of the other leagues.
 
Edit: No clue about the reasons for the pretentious font.  Sorry.
 

snowmanny

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Well, except for the fact that he often struggles against the Yankees, despite being a lefty...
 
I hope the Sox have seen the folly of the "no aces" strategy in the current pitching dominated MLB, and go after Greinke hard if he can be had on a 5 or 6 year deal, now that he has opted out....
 
While with Toronto Price kind of turned it around against NYY.  Four starts, 3-0  26.1 IP 5ER, 22H, 27K, 5BB (1.71 ERA) 
 
Edit: Of course the second-half NYY offense was not their usual permier bunch.
 

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I don't understand this idea of basing acquisitions on how well they may do against the Yankees.  NY hasn't been the best team in the division since 2012.  They should acquire players that should help win the most games, period.  But if we're going to consider how a player has done versus a particular opponent, trying to figure out which pitcher may do the best job of containing the Toronto offense would seem to make more sense right now.
 

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StuckOnYouk said:
Yeah, I'd prefer a 30-year old price and keeping the 1st rounder instead of a 32-year old Greinke and losing a 1st rounder.
 
Plus I have no problem with a lot of lefties, especially considering that our consistent rival over the next 5 years may still be the Yankees. They have a stadium that demands they have lefty hitters.
 
I want to agree with you then I look at the list of pitchers.
 
Price*
Porcello
Buchholz
Miley*
Rodriguez*
Johnson*
Wright
Owens*
 
That;s our top eight starters and five of them are lefties and one's a knuckleballer. In the completely improbable situation where Buchholz gets hurt, we have one traditional righty in the rotation.
 
That's not just a lot of lefties, it's overwhelmingly lefties.
 
And if, as we hope, Rodriguez gets better and is acelike if you squint, we're leading off our playoff rotation with two lefties.
 
I'll live, don't get me wrong, but it's a lotta lotta lefties.
 

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The lefty overload is one reason my priority target would be Jordan Zimmermann
 

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E5 Yaz said:
The lefty overload is one reason my priority target would be Jordan Zimmermann
I asked one of my oldest friends, a Nationals fan, if he thought the Sox should go after Z. He thought of course they should, but said that Z. apparently longs to return to the mid-West, and wants to pitch for the Brewers. He acknowledged that of course a boatload of money would probably win out.
 

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Huh....that may be the first time I've heard the phrase "wants to pitch for the Brewers"
 

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I will be very disappointed if Dombrowski is not in on Greinke and every other major arm this winter.  Of course,the Sox FO will certainly conduct their own due diligence internally and prioritize.
 

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JimD said:
I will be very disappointed if Dombrowski is not in on Greinke and every other major arm this winter.  Of course,the Sox FO will certainly conduct their own due diligence internally and prioritize.
 
I, for one, am thankful for the insight and wisdom delivered within this post.
 

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InsideTheParker said:
I asked one of my oldest friends, a Nationals fan, if he thought the Sox should go after Z. He thought of course they should, but said that Z. apparently longs to return to the mid-West, and wants to pitch for the Brewers. He acknowledged that of course a boatload of money would probably win out.
I hear this sort of thing all the time (see, e.g., Harper to the Yankees), but when was the last time that a big money MLB free agent took less money to sign with his hometown/childhood favorite team?
 

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JimD said:
I will be very disappointed if Dombrowski is not in on Greinke and every other major arm this winter.  Of course,the Sox FO will certainly conduct their own due diligence internally and prioritize.
 
JimBoSox9 said:
 
I, for one, am thankful for the insight and wisdom delivered within this post.
So is this guy...
 
 

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B H Kim said:
I hear this sort of thing all the time (see, e.g., Harper to the Yankees), but when was the last time that a big money MLB free agent took less money to sign with his hometown/childhood favorite team?
Not for one of the reasons you cite, but Cliff Lee signed for less with the Phillies, we heard because he and his wife wanted the care their son could get in Philadelphia (child had leukemia, currently in remission per Wikipedia). I know that is a much more serious reason than the ones you gave. 
 

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B H Kim said:
I hear this sort of thing all the time (see, e.g., Harper to the Yankees), but when was the last time that a big money MLB free agent took less money to sign with his hometown/childhood favorite team?
 
Hanley Ramirez.
 

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E5 Yaz said:
The lefty overload is one reason my priority target would be Jordan Zimmermann
 
I keep coming back to Zimmerman because I see him as the only candidate of the "Big 4" with a chance to get at least somewhat James Shields'ed this winter. Like everybody else i'd prefer Price, but i'm not sure i like Price in reality terms and at 2-3 additional years + pushing $100m more. 
 
Similar to David Price signing at anything below what Max Scherzer got last winter, i have a really, REALLY hard time speculating a scenario where the Dodgers willingly let Greinke walk at even the ceiling projections being thrown out in this thread. An outside offer of 5 years certainly isn't breaking down any doors there.
 
He's also getting $30m/per after the year he had. No question to that imo. 
 

Shane

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The reason I like Greinke is that he's a smart pitcher who is constantly refining/perfecting his stuff.  With this approach, he should continue to pitch at a high level for as long as he remains healthy.
That's what I'm thinking. Did anyone else read the Sports Illustrated article earlier this year about Greinke's change up? He seems like a smart guy, always making adjustments to stay effective. I'd love to see him pitching for the Red Sox on opening day.
 

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I apologize for not remembering which "expert" it was that I heard on The Rusillo Show (I'll try to find it later than edit) but they said the leader. If not LA, was the SF Giants.
The reasons given were basically everything E5 YAZ typed, with the major emphasis being the desire to stay in the NL and out west.

Figured I's mention that quick since I don't believe I saw anyone mention SF yet as competition (for those that are hoping for him).
 

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B H Kim said:
I hear this sort of thing all the time (see, e.g., Harper to the Yankees), but when was the last time that a big money MLB free agent took less money to sign with his hometown/childhood favorite team?
Harper > Yankees is not going to be about less money. Hope that the Nats give him 4 to 5 hundred million. If they don't, the MFYs will.
 

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dcmissle said:
Harper > Yankees is not going to be about less money. Hope that the Nats give him 4 to 5 hundred million. If they don't, the MFYs will.
 
Hope he enjoys finishing second a lot.
 

sean1562

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InsideTheParker said:
I asked one of my oldest friends, a Nationals fan, if he thought the Sox should go after Z. He thought of course they should, but said that Z. apparently longs to return to the mid-West, and wants to pitch for the Brewers. He acknowledged that of course a boatload of money would probably win out.
 
Im a nats fan and the whole "JZimm wants to go back to the mid-West" is not something grounded in any comment he made or anything. It is literally the "Ellsbury will sign in Seattle" of Nationals message board speculation.
 

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sean1562 said:
 
Im a nats fan and the whole "JZimm wants to go back to the mid-West" is not something grounded in any comment he made or anything. It is literally the "Ellsbury will sign in Seattle" of Nationals message board speculation.
 
 
Rosenthal reports that the Giants are likely to pursue right-hander Jordan Zimmermann as they look to bulk up their rotation this offseason. However, he notes that the Wisconsin native may prefer to return to the Midwest. 
Maybe he read it here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/jordan-zimmermann I agree that's not substantial, so I wonder where Rosenthal got it. Do people just dream this stuff up?