Has the "Twilight of the Patriots’ Dynasty" Finally Arrived?

[Van Everyman]

Charlie Pierce thinks so:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/magazine/2018/02/28/charlie-pierce-the-twilight-patriots-dynasty-has-finally-arrived/4HxBBZIQDxxS0ZJWz3eKTK/story.html

Starting a new thread because we are in the dog days of the offseason. Plus, there has been a continuing drumbeat of the themes first outlined in the Wickersham piece and summarized by this piece. To recap, the reports say that there is some level of friction between:

1. Kraft and Belichick
2. Belichick and Brady
3. Belichick and Guerrero
4. Belichick and Gronk
5. Belichick and the players
6. Players and the training staff

Other factors that seem to have multiple implications include the hangover that is the whole Butler situation in the SB and whatever went down with the Jimmy trade.

For all the strurm und drang, there's still a lot we don't know -- and the team has made some moves to shore things up (retaining McDaniels in particular) that suggest things may be getting back on track. But given what we do know--particularly the "will he or won't he" that has been Gronk's offseason (supplemented by reports from Curran, who I trust)--I have a hard time waving this all away as media-driven noise, as many here did when ESPN first ran its piece this fall.

How serious do we think this is? Is Brady going to play for another 5 years under this regime? Or are things going to come apart before he gets the chance?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I mean rationally, they're closer to the end of the run than the beginning. Of course people have been predicting the end of the dynasty since 2002, so do it often enough and you'll be right and get to take a victory lap.

Pierce isn't a shit-stirrer, so I'm not inclined to be as dismissive of his take as others were in the other thread. Frankly, see the Eagles use the Pats' own game plan and execution against them in the Super Bowl sort of made me feel the same way, that this could be it. But that's just a gut feeling and no one knows anything.

 

[InstaFace]

You saw the extended discussion of this article in the Nation's Tears thread, right?

 

[bankshot1]

I see an older team, with decidedly mixed results in recent drafts. Winter is coming.

 

[Super Nomario]

They are more likely to win zero Super Bowls going forward with this crew than to win any, but I also would have said the same thing before 2014 and they've won two since so who knows?

 

[southshoresoxfan]

I see an older team, with decidedly mixed results in recent drafts. Winter is coming.

I see a young team except the QB position, w the same success in drafts as everybody else. Hit or miss

 

[bankshot1]

I see a young team except the QB position, w the same success in drafts as everybody else. Hit or miss

A few years ago the Pats were among the youngest 1/3 teams in the NFL, now they are among the older teams.

Without going name by name, or team by team, IMO they have had a lot of disappointments in the early round picks, which has led them to depend on more vets, and voila, they got older.

 

[Leather]

On one hand, I've heard the "Patriots are done" song after the following seasons:
2001
2005
2006
2008 (Week 1)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015

So... Yeah.

On the other hand, while I don't think they'll win another SB in the foreseeable future, and Brady will retire probably without returning to the game, they won't fall off the face of the earth for at least another 5 years. They will still probably win the Division for the next 2-3 years, and depending on who they get QB and HC, could still be a playoff contender for another decade. Who knows.

 

[slamminsammya]

There's friction. But how much friction is there on a middle of the pack average NFL team going nowhere? Doesn't seem to affect their play very much. Time >>> drama as factors causing a downfall.

 

[Carmine Hose]

How does this fit in to the long term outlook? Very bizarre.

http://www.weei.com/blogs/weei/robert-krafts-girlfriend-ricki-noel-lander-reportedly-welcomes-baby#cxrecs_s

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Who gives a crap? Not our business, not the team's concern.

 

[Number45forever]

Fuck this noise. Edelman will be back next season, McD is still around, and Brady is going to be really, really motivated. Shore up the D a bit, go lead the league in points scored and see how it goes in the postseason. The end is approaching, but it isn't here yet.

 

[Carmine Hose]

Who gives a crap? Not our business, not the team's concern.

I'm sure it concerns Jonathan Kraft as the future owner of the team. This is the type of odd life thing that we don't need leadership dealing with as they steady the rudder.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I'm sure it concerns Jonathan Kraft as the future owner of the team. This is the type of odd life thing that we don't need leadership dealing with as they steady the rudder.

I think this is extremely overblown.

 

[Van Everyman]

I think this is extremely overblown.

Roose Bolton felt the same way.

 

[joe dokes]

I think this is extremely overblown.

Is there a level beyond "extremely"?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Is there a level beyond "extremely"?

Ludicrous speed.

 

[wilked]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkay/2018/02/04/super-bowl-2019-odds-opening-line-for-all-32-teams-and-expert-picks/#14e3b8347504

Best odds for Super Bowl Champs next year
Third best odds for year after

As others noted, I have high confidence for this year - AFC Championship expectations, and whatever happens beyond that is gravy
2019/2020 season I start to worry about given Brady's age.

Beyond that...who knows, but anything other than a perennial AFC Conf Champ participant is a step down so of course they are likely for a step down

 

[loshjott]

They are more likely to win zero Super Bowls going forward with this crew than to win any, but I also would have said the same thing before 2014 and they've won two since so who knows?

The same can be said of every team in the NFL, in any 2-4 yr period.

 

[lexrageorge]

Noone really knows anything about the inside workings in Patriot Place, and predicting the future in the NFL is impossible. About the only certainty is that Brady, Belichick, and Kraft Sr will no longer be with the team at some point, and probably sooner rather than later.

With Brady and Belichick, we could start each season saying the Pats were a legit playoff team and possible championship contender. When they're gone, we'll likely go through a period where that will not be true. What's almost certain is that we'll probably not see another run with 8 SB appearances in 18 years. The margin between Super Bowl winner and road team on Wild Card Weekend is thinner than we'd like acknowledge sometimes.

There may indeed be some friction inside the building in Foxboro. The Gronk story seems to have some legs, although it's hard to tell if it's really a big deal or not. It's quite possible that Gronk may want to retire for health reasons that have nothing to do with him having to walk 10 minutes across the parking lot to do his training regimen. However, the time since the Super Bowl has given us time to debunk some of the more outrageous and ludicrous theories. For instance:

- McCourty has debunked the Minnihane claim that Belichick sprang the Butler benching upon the team at the last possible moment.

- Belichick's appearance at the combine, coupled with his agreement to work more closely with McDaniels at Kraft's behest, kills the nonsense that BB was somehow the source for Wickersham's story and was going to bolt the team once the SB was done.

- The honest assessment of the team's salary cap situation and JG's extension have pretty much destroyed the theory that Kraft forced Belichick to trade JG just to appease Brady.

I'm sure it concerns Jonathan Kraft as the future owner of the team. This is the type of odd life thing that we don't need leadership dealing with as they steady the rudder.

If Kraft Sr. having a baby is enough to distract them from running the team, they are far, far worse businessmen than we ever thought.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

They issued a press release specifically denying Kraft is the father. Sounds like he'll be financially taking care of the child, but clearly they believed it best to get ahead of the situation now to move on. No one wants questions in training camp when they see his GF carrying around an infant, assuming she's even there.

This is a nothingburger.

 

[hoothehoo]

If Kraft Sr. having a baby is enough to distract them from running the team, they are far, far worse businessmen than we ever thought.

Apparently not his.

https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2018/03/01/robert-kraft-ricki-noel-lander-baby

 

[jsinger121]

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

They issued a press release specifically denying Kraft is the father. Sounds like he'll be financially taking care of the child, but clearly they believed it best to get ahead of the situation now to move on. No one wants questions in training camp when they see his GF carrying around an infant, assuming she's even there.

This is a nothingburger.

Says you.

I think it's yet another sign of friction within the organization and, along with Butlergate, will add to the reasons why Patriot players will tune out BB.

If they aren't going to explain the Butler story, they, at least, owe the team and it's fans an explanation why Kraft is supporting a child that isn't his. If not, this will be a huge distraction come OTAs.

 

[tims4wins]

Curran timely article

http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/curran-patriots-future-rides-breaking-tension

 

[joe dokes]

If Kraft Sr. having a baby is enough to distract them from running the team, they are far, far worse businessmen than we ever thought.

Nobody knows the Kraftlings better than Bob. Maybe that's why he had the baby.* "Jesus, I can't let these assclowns run this thing after I'm gone."


*(yes I know. it is now being reported that the chair is not his son).

 

[joe dokes]

Says you.

I think it's yet another sign of friction within the organization and, along with Butlergate, will add to the reasons why Patriot players will tune out BB.
.

I read that as "Buttergate." Last Tango in Foxboro.

 

[Bowhemian]

Says you.

I think it's yet another sign of friction within the organization and, along with Butlergate, will add to the reasons why Patriot players will tune out BB.

If they aren't going to explain the Butler story, they, at least, owe the team and it's fans an explanation why Kraft is supporting a child that isn't his. If not, this will be a huge distraction come OTAs.

In what world would Kraft fathering a child provide any kind of distraction for the Pats players? I mean, I could see it if BB was the father. And I could definitely see it if Kraft fathered the child with one of the coaches/players girlfriend and/or wife. But in this case, who gives a rats ass, besides the fans and the media? Who would even address the question in a press conference other than RK?

If anything, I would think the players would be more likely to give him a smile and a high 5 for banging a chick half his age.

 

[bankshot1]

I think we now know why Kraft told BB to trade JG.

 

[lexrageorge]

In what world would Kraft fathering a child provide any kind of distraction for the Pats players? I mean, I could see it if BB was the father. And I could definitely see it if Kraft fathered the child with one of the coaches/players girlfriend and/or wife. But in this case, who gives a rats ass, besides the fans and the media? Who would even address the question in a press conference other than RK?

If anything, I would think the players would be more likely to give him a smile and a high 5 for banging a chick half his age.

I think the post was very much made tongue in cheek, in reaction to posts some others made about the Butler benching.

 

[EvilEmpire]

I think we now know why Kraft told BB to trade JG.

Ok, that was pretty good.

 

[E5 Yaz]

You saw the extended discussion of this article in the Nation's Tears thread, right?

Who gives a rat's ass if a similar discussion was buried in a megathread. The topic is worthy of its own thread.

 

[BaseballJones]

I see an older team, with decidedly mixed results in recent drafts. Winter is coming.

Given that the QB is the best ever, and at most is a handful of years away from retirement, there's no doubt that, barring one hell of a replacement at QB, the Patriots' dynasty is on the last couple of holes. They are, IMO, still the best team in football, and should rightfully be the favorite going into 2018. But yes, the dynasty is winding down.

Enjoy it while you can. This is the golden age.

 

[loshjott]

Nobody knows the Kraftlings better than Bob. Maybe that's why he had the baby.* "Jesus, I can't let these assclowns run this thing after I'm gone."


*(yes I know. it is now being reported that the chair is not his son).

Cautionary tale from the Nation's Capital on that. Jack Kent Cooke didn't bequeath his team to his son, and, well, we all know what happened with that:

"In his will, Cooke left the team and stadium to his foundation with instructions to sell it. Cooke's son, John Kent Cooke, tried to put in a competitive bid to keep the team in the family, but it instead went to local businessman Daniel Snyder and his associates for a record-setting $800 million."

 

[BunnzMcGinty]

Ok, my problem with this whole debate is that every argument giving credence to the idea that the end is nigh leads back to the Wickersham piece, an article that is poorly sourced, poorly reasoned, and most (if not all) of which has been debunked. I have an incredibly difficult time accepting any argument based upon this very shaky ground.

I also find the concept laughable that players are "tuning out" Bill Belichick because of Butlergate. We already have confirmation from McCourty that it wasn't sprung on the team last minute. Anyone who's been paying attention to BB over the last 20 years knows he has zero problem sending any player packing. Ask Jamie Collins how "tuning out" Bill worked for his career.

Finally, Kraft's gf's baby is literally a non-story, at least from a football angle. The choices Robert Kraft makes in his personal life have absolutely no bearing on the operation of the team, and he owes NO ONE any explanation for it. As far as I can see, as an ignorant upsider, the guy loves her enough to take care of her kid. Not exactly a dark, sordid scandal.

Anyway, while we are obviously much closer to the end of this journey than the beginning, most of this Sturm und Drang is jealous wishcasting from outside the organization rather than actual cases for concern.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Ok, my problem with this whole debate is that every argument giving credence to the idea that the end is nigh leads back to the Wickersham piece, an article that is poorly sourced, poorly reasoned, and most (if not all) of which has been debunked. I have an incredibly difficult time accepting any argument based upon this very shaky ground.

Not quite. Several people have pointed to an aging quarterback, the law of averages and the lack of recent drafting depth as reasons for believing that the Patriots run might be closer to the end than the beginning.

Citing the Wickersham article as the primary and/or mover in this is lazy posting

 

[BaseballJones]

Not quite. Several people have pointed to an aging quarterback, the law of averages and the lack of recent drafting depth as reasons for believing that the Patriots run might be closer to the end than the beginning.

Citing the Wickersham article as the primary and/or mover in this is lazy posting

Exactly. Aging roster, 40 year old QB who, while still great, is clearly closer to the end than the beginning (by a sizable margin), a HOF tight end that could be retiring soon, and nobody even close to their ability waiting in the wings. Plus it's not like Belichick is 55 years old.

It was a hot take to say that the Pats' dynasty was ending in, say, 2009. It's not a hot take now. We're sadly much closer to this being a reality than any of us would wish. And it has nothing to do with Seth Wickersham.

I still see them being really good as long as Brady is here and playing well. But obviously that's not going to be much longer.

 

[BunnzMcGinty]

Not quite. Several people have pointed to an aging quarterback, the law of averages and the lack of recent drafting depth as reasons for believing that the Patriots run might be closer to the end than the beginning.

Citing the Wickersham article as the primary and/or mover in this is lazy posting

All I've asserted that while the end may be nigh, the end is NOT 2018. We have a team that had a legit chance to win the Super Bowl in the 4th quarter despite a non-existent defense, and most folks, including in this thread, give them a better than even shot to get back.

EDIT: Removed the first paragraph because it was a little rude and fighty, but I do think the "lazy posting" comment was equally rude and condescending.

 

[Spelunker]

Says you.

I think it's yet another sign of friction within the organization and, along with Butlergate, will add to the reasons why Patriot players will tune out BB.

If they aren't going to explain the Butler story, they, at least, owe the team and it's fans an explanation why Kraft is supporting a child that isn't his. If not, this will be a huge distraction come OTAs.

How better to temper criticism and distance himself from being seen as a Trump ally than positioning himself as a literal cuck?

 

[Al Zarilla]

The Patriots don’t have any guarantee of the dynasty continuing, but none of the other 31 teams have a guarantee of anything either. I’ll take my chances with this coach, this quarterback and the rest of the team, and the management group to replace said people when they have to. And, if and when they fall apart, it’s been one of the best runs in any sport ever.

This thread should be closed. What else do you do, keep it open until it is over?

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

How better to temper criticism and distance himself from being seen as a Trump ally than positioning himself as a literal cuck?

Vlad Putin positioned Kraft as such years ago.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

On one hand, I've heard the "Patriots are done" song after the following seasons:
2001
2005
2006
2008 (Week 1)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015

So... Yeah.

On the other hand, while I don't think they'll win another SB in the foreseeable future, and Brady will retire probably without returning to the game, they won't fall off the face of the earth for at least another 5 years. They will still probably win the Division for the next 2-3 years, and depending on who they get QB and HC, could still be a playoff contender for another decade. Who knows.

Can we side bet both not making the SB and not winning another? The mans coming off and MVP campaign AND a 500 yard performance in the SB.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

Eventually the Pats will lose Belichick and Brady. It’s hard to replace the best coach ever and the best QB ever, of course, but who’s to say that Josh can’t be 90% of BB with a few more years of tutoring and that the Pats can’t get themselves into another Jimmy G situation under Brady’s last couple years?

I’m not sure how long a twilight lasts, but the Pats are the most likely team to win the Bowl for at least the next two years, so long as B.B. and TB remain.

 

[tims4wins]

I’m not sure how long a twilight lasts.

Hmm ask Duke and Rajah

 

[snowmanny]

The last famous Boston sports twilight lasted ten years.

Ed: Well crap. I should probably read the post above mine before hitting send

 

[reggiecleveland]

I think it is sooner, maybe even soon:

Brady did the unheard of at his age. Yes he is one of a kind, but it was unheard of because the odds are stacked against a guy that old being good. let alone great.
There is pseudo science in Brady's belief as to why he is successful. Maybe it doesn't matter, but I highly doubt he has it all figured out as much as he thinks.
The fact we are hearing negative stories from multiple sources, when the Pats have been known for radio silence
The league, nation, media want them to fail, that creates a powerful subconscious pull on officials and drive to opponents, without that anger, hate, etc, at least one major play in the last SB gets over turned.
It is the greatest run by any team ever, Two more years is like Wilt scoring 150, Bolt running 9.3, Jack winning 25 majors.

 

[Van Everyman]

@Chad Finn with some good perspective on this topic: http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2018/03/05/the-patriots-could-use-some-meaningful-wins-this-offseason/wIWxHgOtnTJDcJqkW4zPdO/story.html

 

[Leather]

I dunno. No offense to Finn, but it was more of a long lament that it sucks to lose a Super Bowl and have to wait for the next season.

 

[wiffleballhero]

In the grand scheme of things, obviously this is the downslope. Brady is not going to play until he is sixty and BB is not coaching to 85.

That said, the Pats are not competing against the 1960/70 Montreal Canadiens, the MFY of the 1950s or the Celtics of the 1960s. They are competing, first, against, the AFC East and then the rest of the AFC, led by the likes of Blake Bortles, and Mike Tomlin. From there it is who-knows-what from the NFC in another season that is unlikely to be decided in March.

I'll take my chances with snake oil-plyometric-Brady, grouchy pants Belichick and old man (drunken grandpa) Kraft with his love child any day of the week.

This is just to say, there is a kind of false equivalency in the discussion here. Would you bet -- in the way you might in 2007 -- that the Pats are gonna be 'dynastic' for the next five years? Probably not. But can they, more probably than not, and more probably than another team, run the AFC gauntlet 2018? Yeah, I think so.

As I wrote to a friend of mine nearly before the fumble to end the SB had stopped rolling, "so who do the Pats get in the AFCCG next year?"

BTW, twilight includes some remaining light. Maybe a last SB is in order.

 

[j-man]

yes

the 4gers dysenty was really over after 95 but hung on for 3 more years

i thing its likely ne makes 1 more SB app unless ben pulls a betiss but tomain is Vance Joseph

after 2018 bray is 42 gronk will be gone by 2020 juilan will be 32 now tailb will be a huge get for u but plob only has 2 all pro years left