Henry Owens to Debut Tuesday 8/4

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Farrell at post-game presser says Owens to get the start at the Nouveau Toilette Tuesday.
 

TimScribble

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Also, Brian Johnson pulled after 60 pitches today.

@brianmacp: Should Brian Johnson replace Joe Kelly on Friday, the Red Sox would (temporarily) have four lefties and a knuckleballer in their rotation.
 

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Rough Carrigan said:
Good reference.
But it's a hell of a lot better to give a kid a get your feet wet start in a season to nowhere than to drop a kid into a pressure packed situation like they did with Sprowl.
 
Trudat. Against the same franchise, though
 

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I had forgotten that Sprowl actually debuted five days before that MFY start and had a decent outing against the Orioles: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. Sox lost 4-1, though.
 

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TimScribble said:
Also, Brian Johnson pulled after 60 pitches today.

@brianmacp: Should Brian Johnson replace Joe Kelly on Friday, the Red Sox would (temporarily) have four lefties and a knuckleballer in their rotation.
 
And the other move is as expected Porcello on the DL with "tricep tendonitis".  I assume it's "phantom triceps tendonitis".  But whatever.  Let's see what everyone else has got.  Saw enough of Porcello.
 

Sampo Gida

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TimScribble said:
Also, Brian Johnson pulled after 60 pitches today.

@brianmacp: Should Brian Johnson replace Joe Kelly on Friday, the Red Sox would (temporarily) have four lefties and a knuckleballer in their rotation.
 
This is kind of sad when you consider that the AL has a drought of good hitting LHB'ers and are stacked with RH sluggers.  Not to mention the park which has never been all that friendly to  LHP'ers, although its not as bad as it used to be.  Key word there is temporarily of course.
 

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TimScribble said:
Also, Brian Johnson pulled after 60 pitches today.

@brianmacp: Should Brian Johnson replace Joe Kelly on Friday, the Red Sox would (temporarily) have four lefties and a knuckleballer in their rotation.
 
And three of the lefties would be (more or less) homegrown. I think the last time we had that many young, homegrown lefties in the rotation was 1983.
 

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Rudy Pemberton said:
Wade Miley the last member of the opening day rotation standing? Makes two years in a row that they've basically turned over 4/5 of the rotation by end of the year.
 
There's a big difference between guys being demoted/DLed and being traded away.  For better or worse, some or all of these guys could or will be back in the rotation by the end of the year.
 

doctormoist

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I remember early comps to power lefties like Kershaw. Then we hear that Owens sits around 90. This kind of meaningless hype bothers me, and makes me believe that management is in spin mode.  Owens is projected as a 3-4 starter. Why should we be excited?
 

TimScribble

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doctormoist said:
I remember early comps to power lefties like Kershaw. Then we hear that Owens sits around 90. This kind of meaningless hype bothers me, and makes me believe that management is in spin mode.  Owens is projected as a 3-4 starter. Why should we be excited?
Because it's not Rick Porcello?
 

semsox

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doctormoist said:
I remember early comps to power lefties like Kershaw. Then we hear that Owens sits around 90. This kind of meaningless hype bothers me, and makes me believe that management is in spin mode.  Owens is projected as a 3-4 starter. Why should we be excited?
 
Care to recollect those early comps? I remember a time when Owens was projectable, where there was potential to add a bit of velocity, but I don't recall anyone ever thinking he'd be a power arm like Kershaw. His success will be on the shoulders of his change-up and how well he uses his FB and curve off of it.
 

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doctormoist said:
I remember early comps to power lefties like Kershaw. Then we hear that Owens sits around 90. This kind of meaningless hype bothers me, and makes me believe that management is in spin mode.  Owens is projected as a 3-4 starter. Why should we be excited?
The early comps were because they thought he'd fill out and add velocity with his frame. Which was pretty reasonable to expect. No idea why it never happened, but he's still developed pretty nicely in spite of that.
 
EDIT: Also agreed with semsox, should have said Kershaw didn't come up to my knowledge either.
 

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doctormoist said:
I remember early comps to power lefties like Kershaw. Then we hear that Owens sits around 90. This kind of meaningless hype bothers me, and makes me believe that management is in spin mode.  Owens is projected as a 3-4 starter. Why should we be excited?
He's allowed about 6 hits per 9 innings in his minor league career so far.  Who cares if he throws 90?  Batters can't read the ball out of his hand, and his change up is very good.
 
He has as much upside if not more than Rodriguez.  There is nothing remotely in his repertoire that compares to Kershaw.  Whoever compared him was looking at a baseball card.
 

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There's something magical about a crafty lefty that has a good change-up and breaking ball.
 
He still has upside if his command improves and he adds another couple mph on his fastball. Its not unprecedented. Because of his height and delivery he really needs the former rather than the ladder to succeed as a ML starter.
 

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doctormoist said:
I remember early comps to power lefties like Kershaw. Then we hear that Owens sits around 90. This kind of meaningless hype bothers me, and makes me believe that management is in spin mode.  Owens is projected as a 3-4 starter. Why should we be excited?
Maybe I missed it but I don't ever remember Kershaw comps for Owens. He has been considered a middle rotation guy for a while with an outside chance of being a #2. He has been outstanding of late (finally showing good control to go along with his always excellent ability to miss bats) so, IMO, the #2 possibility is back on the table. But his lack of overpowering stuff probably means he'll struggle for a quite a while in the bigs before hitting his stride, whatever level that turns out to be
 

ehaz

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Owens' last 9 games:             58 IP / 2.64 ERA / 8.1 K / 2.1 BB
EdRod before his call-up:    48.1 IP / 2.98 ERA / 8.2 K / 1.3 BB
 
I think he's turned a corner since the beginning of the season.
 

foulkehampshire

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ehaz said:
Owens' last 9 games:             58 IP / 2.64 ERA / 8.1 K / 2.1 BB
EdRod before his call-up:    48.1 IP / 2.98 ERA / 8.2 K / 1.3 BB
 
I think he's turned a corner since the beginning of the season.
 
His BB/9 has dropped every month in Pawtucket.
 

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I'm looking forward to seeing this best-of-class changeup.
 

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Sprowl said:
I'm looking forward to seeing this best-of-class changeup.
 
Yeah.  I know you've been sort of down on him in the minors--with pretty defensible scouting reasons--but he's been the pitcher I've talked up and been the most pumped about in recent memory.  He might be the pitching prospect I'm most excited about in the past 10 years.
 
I'd kind of perversely just love to see him rack up the Ks, independent of the overall results, just to see that stuff--the changeup in particular--convey to the major league level.  The few times I've seen it, it's absolutely nasty and there's a part of my reptilian brain that wants something that is so dominant up through AAA to play in the big leagues.  
 
Obviously having him actually pitch effectively would be vastly preferable to just some Ks and a ton of walks, but I'm unconscionably giddy about this debut.
 

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It could be worse --  the Bidet favors left-handed hitters with that short RF porch, so it's a good place to start a lefty -- at least if you are trying to win games. Question: should we be?
 

jk333

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Statistically, it will be exciting to see if he continues to strike people out. People traditionally (even in this thread) look to velocity to determine upside and potential k rate; Owens will be a nice test to see if he can keep striking batters out.

Joe Kelly is the opposite with high 90s heat and no ability to strikeout a batter an inning at any level.

If he stays up, it'd be nice to see Owens approach a k/9 of 9 and keep his walk rate below 4.
 

jscola85

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I'm most interested in seeing whether Owens' fastball command is there.  We all know his changeup is exciting but if he can't command his fastball to hit the edges of the strike zone, he won't be in good counts to take advantage of the changeup.
 

nighthob

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doctormoist said:
I remember early comps to power lefties like Kershaw. Then we hear that Owens sits around 90. This kind of meaningless hype bothers me, and makes me believe that management is in spin mode.  Owens is projected as a 3-4 starter. Why should we be excited?
I don't remember many Kershaw comps. I recall a few Denny Neagle ones, and other comps to lefthanded changeup pitchers. The optimism was based on Owens being a tall skinny lefty with a killer change whose fastball sat in the 90mph range. Generally teenagers add velocity as they fill out, so it was reasonable all those years ago to think that he'd be working in the 93-94 range now. Unfortunately it didn't happen and people have adjusted their expectations downward.
 

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nighthob said:
I don't remember many Kershaw comps. I recall a few Denny Neagle ones, and other comps to lefthanded changeup pitchers. The optimism was based on Owens being a tall skinny lefty with a killer change whose fastball sat in the 90mph range. Generally teenagers add velocity as they fill out, so it was reasonable all those years ago to think that he'd be working in the 93-94 range now. Unfortunately it didn't happen and people have adjusted their expectations downward.
 
A Denny Neagle-like career would be a fine outcome for Owens - Decade long career averaging around 2.0 WAR per year (Fangraphs) with a 4-year peak with seasons between 3 and 5 WAR. 
 

jscola85

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Hector Santiago seems like an interesting comp.  Lefty without an overpowering fastball (90 MPH average this year) who can get a bit wild at times (3.9 BB/9 in his pro career), extreme flyball pitcher like Owens, and utilizes his changeup a fair bit (19% on his career).
 

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grimshaw said:
He's allowed about 6 hits per 9 innings in his minor league career so far.  Who cares if he throws 90?  Batters can't read the ball out of his hand, and his change up is very good.
 
He has as much upside if not more than Rodriguez.  There is nothing remotely in his repertoire that compares to Kershaw.  Whoever compared him was looking at a baseball card.
I doubt it. If he's sitting 90 his upside is Wade Miley and his downside is Bobby Sprowl. There's no reason to be excited about a kid whose out pitch is a change up. Major league hitters read those a hell of a lot better than minor leaguers, and they don't miss 90 mph meatballs either.

This organization is in a world of hurt if they aren't going to be willing to spend $350 million on 3 top of the rotation starters. The next one that even has a chance to be that from the minors is Anderson Espinoza. He's in the GCL.
 

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HomeRunBaker said:
To Devin doesn't pretty much every pitcher look like Kershaw out there?
Yeah that was another fabulous use of a #1 pick, wasn't it?
 

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Plympton91 said:
I doubt it. If he's sitting 90 his upside is Wade Miley and his downside is Bobby Sprowl. There's no reason to be excited about a kid whose out pitch is a change up. Major league hitters read those a hell of a lot better than minor leaguers, and they don't miss 90 mph meatballs either. .
Like the guy the sox faced yesterday? There are a number of pitchers who rely on their change and are successful. The kid is left handed and has been doing well. Can we give him one game in the pros before dismissing him?
 

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Plympton91 said:
I doubt it. If he's sitting 90 his upside is Wade Miley and his downside is Bobby Sprowl. There's no reason to be excited about a kid whose out pitch is a change up. Major league hitters read those a hell of a lot better than minor leaguers, and they don't miss 90 mph meatballs either.

This organization is in a world of hurt if they aren't going to be willing to spend $350 million on 3 top of the rotation starters. The next one that even has a chance to be that from the minors is Anderson Espinoza. He's in the GCL.
 
Someone mentioned Hector Santiago as a good comp for Owens, and I agree.  And I would be very excited if Santiago was in the Sox rotation.  And Santiago just throws a 91 mph fastball.  Few teams are going to throw $350 million for 3 top of the rotation starters.  But give me some depth in the rotation 2-5, that is young and cost-controlled, and it makes it a lot easier to justify going out and paying for an Ace on the FA market.  Bruce Hurst was not exactly a hard-thrower, but I'd love to have vintage Hurst in the rotation today.
 
Let's see what Owens can do over the next 2 months before we condemn him to the also-ran pile.
 

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Plympton91 said:
I doubt it. If he's sitting 90 his upside is Wade Miley and his downside is Bobby Sprowl. There's no reason to be excited about a kid whose out pitch is a change up. Major league hitters read those a hell of a lot better than minor leaguers, and they don't miss 90 mph meatballs either.

This organization is in a world of hurt if they aren't going to be willing to spend $350 million on 3 top of the rotation starters. The next one that even has a chance to be that from the minors is Anderson Espinoza. He's in the GCL.
 
Yup, a plus to plus-plus change isn't useful to major league pitchers.  Pedro just got lucky when he threw his.
 
Owens benefits from natural deception in his delivery as it comes from behind his head and jumps on hitters as he has that long body.  He doesn't need to throw 95.
 

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Plympton91 said:
I doubt it. If he's sitting 90 his upside is Wade Miley and his downside is Bobby Sprowl. There's no reason to be excited about a kid whose out pitch is a change up. Major league hitters read those a hell of a lot better than minor leaguers, and they don't miss 90 mph meatballs either.

This organization is in a world of hurt if they aren't going to be willing to spend $350 million on 3 top of the rotation starters. The next one that even has a chance to be that from the minors is Anderson Espinoza. He's in the GCL.
I don't understand what you're getting at.  Glavine, Moyer and Santana all had great change ups and didn't light up the radar gun.  Mark Buerhle and Ted Lilly do/did ok too.  And how does 90 mph mean meatball?  I mean, he was ranked just behind Syndergaard in terms of pitching prospects this year.  I don't know what to say if you're not excited about him.
 

jscola85

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Movement & command also matter.  As we have seen with Joe Kelly, you can throw it 99 but if it's down the pipe and straight as an arrow, you'll get lit up by MLB hitters.
 

nighthob

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HomeRunBaker said:
To Devin doesn't pretty much every pitcher look like Kershaw out there?
 
No, he was definitely being realistic, because a lot of pitchers look like prime Pedro to him.
 

nighthob

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That being said there's no reason that he can't be successful despite the underpowered fastball. He has a sufficient spread between the fastball and change to be effective. And if Jamie Moyer could keep pitching to the age of, what, 73? as a changeup pitcher, then Owens can certainly be effective.
 

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jscola85 said:
I'm most interested in seeing whether Owens' fastball command is there.  We all know his changeup is exciting but if he can't command his fastball to hit the edges of the strike zone, he won't be in good counts to take advantage of the changeup.
 
I would be more concerned about his command in the strike zone.  If he is wild in the zone he will give up a lot of HR, especially against the Yankees.  A few walks won't kill him if he stays away from the middle of the plate.  The change can be thrown on any count, and is not a pitch that is only used ahead of the count at the MLB level
 

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Plympton91 said:
There's no reason to be excited about a kid whose out pitch is a change up. 
From BP:  What makes Owens a potential No. 3 starter though is the changeup. It is one of the best of any pitching prospect in baseball. There’s late fade to the offering, and his arm speed and arm slot allow for tremendous deception. If it isn’t a plus-plus change, then no prospect has a plus-plus change right now. It’s that good.
 

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Sampo Gida said:
 
I would be more concerned about his command in the strike zone.  If he is wild in the zone he will give up a lot of HR, especially against the Yankees.  A few walks won't kill him if he stays away from the middle of the plate.  The change can be thrown on any count, and is not a pitch that is only used ahead of the count at the MLB level
 
He will get eaten up either way against a good, patient lineup like NYY.
 

Plympton91

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WenZink said:
Someone mentioned Hector Santiago as a good comp for Owens, and I agree.  And I would be very excited if Santiago was in the Sox rotation.  And Santiago just throws a 91 mph fastball.  Few teams are going to throw $350 million for 3 top of the rotation starters.  But give me some depth in the rotation 2-5, that is young and cost-controlled, and it makes it a lot easier to justify going out and paying for an Ace on the FA market.  Bruce Hurst was not exactly a hard-thrower, but I'd love to have vintage Hurst in the rotation today.
 
Let's see what Owens can do over the next 2 months before we condemn him to the also-ran pile.
Yeah, I agree. It would be great to have a good #4 starter like Santiago and that's a good wish cast for Owens. Everything in baseball is percentages. Owens might live up to the ceiling in his scouting reports and be Tom Glavine someday. That would be great. But, if I recall, Glavine sucked for most of his first 2 years at least. The Red Sox don't need any more #4 starters and can't live through 50 sucky starts from Owens before he becomes Glavine , because they already have one of the worst pitching staffs ever assembled by a Red Sox front office.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Plympton91 said:
Yeah, I agree. It would be great to have a good #4 starter like Santiago and that's a good wish cast for Owens. Everything in baseball is percentages. Owens might live up to the ceiling in his scouting reports and be Tom Glavine someday. That would be great. But, if I recall, Glavine sucked for most of his first 2 years at least. The Red Sox don't need any more #4 starters and can't live through 50 sucky starts from Owens before he becomes Glavine, because they already have one of the worst pitching staffs ever assembled by a Red Sox front office.
Actually, they can. It's called rebuilding, those 50 starts. And if Owens could truly become a Glavine, then maybe it's what the team needs to commit to, since that the immediate-term pitching picture is so bleak.
 

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Plympton91 said:
Yeah, I agree. It would be great to have a good #4 starter like Santiago and that's a good wish cast for Owens. Everything in baseball is percentages. Owens might live up to the ceiling in his scouting reports and be Tom Glavine someday. That would be great. But, if I recall, Glavine sucked for most of his first 2 years at least. The Red Sox don't need any more #4 starters and can't live through 50 sucky starts from Owens before he becomes Glavine , because they already have one of the worst pitching staffs ever assembled by a Red Sox front office.
 
That's one way of looking at it. The other way of looking at is that they're never going to be consistently good for a long time until they are willing to make being consistently good for a long time their goal and never sacrifice that goal for the sake of being good next year, regardless of what fans and reporters think.
 
I mean, think what you're saying for pete's sake. The Sox "can't live through 50 sucky starts from Owens before he becomes Glavine"? WTF else can they do? How are they ever going to have a shot at enjoying the services of a good starting pitcher in his prime if they're not willing to live through his growing pains?
 
This is not to say that Owens is likely to be as good as a Glavine, or even close to that good. But giving pitchers like him a chance to show how good they can be is the only game in town; if we're not willing to do it we'll be stuck in a cycle of expensive mediocrity indefinitely. We can't FA our way out of it; those days are over. We can supplement with FAs but we can't build a core around them. The alternative is more 2015s. 
 

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Plympton91 said:
Yeah, I agree. It would be great to have a good #4 starter like Santiago and that's a good wish cast for Owens. Everything in baseball is percentages. Owens might live up to the ceiling in his scouting reports and be Tom Glavine someday. That would be great. But, if I recall, Glavine sucked for most of his first 2 years at least. The Red Sox don't need any more #4 starters and can't live through 50 sucky starts from Owens before he becomes Glavine , because they already have one of the worst pitching staffs ever assembled by a Red Sox front office.
 
 
The reason Miley is important to the roster is that he's a viable SP who puts up desperately-needed innings (he's on pace for 185 or so) at sub-FA prices. Even if he looks like a back-of-the-rotation guy now, he has real upside (take a look at his 2012 numbers). 
 
Owens can be another guy like that. I don't see him as an ace in the near term, even if he has pitched better than Rodriguez for Pawtucket since they started letting him throw his changeup again. But I saw him a lot in Portland, and he gets a lot of swings and misses, and he throws a lot of IP. 
 

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Plympton91 said:
Yeah, I agree. It would be great to have a good #4 starter like Santiago and that's a good wish cast for Owens. Everything in baseball is percentages. Owens might live up to the ceiling in his scouting reports and be Tom Glavine someday. That would be great. But, if I recall, Glavine sucked for most of his first 2 years at least. The Red Sox don't need any more #4 starters and can't live through 50 sucky starts from Owens before he becomes Glavine , because they already have one of the worst pitching staffs ever assembled by a Red Sox front office.
God - please save us from having another Glavine in the making.
Can you at least look at Owens' minor league numbers first and tell me if anyone has dominated the competition more since at least Buchholz?
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa597755&position=P
I'll summarize:
518 IP 389 hits allowed = 6.8 hits/9.  This rate would put him first in the league some years  572 k's = 9.9 k/9.  This rate would put him 5th among starters at the major league levels.  All this while being at least 2 years younger than the competition.  He can be excused if it takes him a few years to get his command and walks under control.
 
He's not likely to come close to duplicating those rates, but you don't put up those numbers in the age appropriate league without being a really good prospect.
 

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Plympton91 said:
Yeah, I agree. It would be great to have a good #4 starter like Santiago and that's a good wish cast for Owens. Everything in baseball is percentages. Owens might live up to the ceiling in his scouting reports and be Tom Glavine someday. That would be great. But, if I recall, Glavine sucked for most of his first 2 years at least. The Red Sox don't need any more #4 starters and can't live through 50 sucky starts from Owens before he becomes Glavine , because they already have one of the worst pitching staffs ever assembled by a Red Sox front office.
 
Santiago is nearing 500 IP in his MLB career and has a career ERA+ of 118.  Lester's career ERA+ is 121.  Hamels is at 123.  This year Santiago's ERA+ is 135.  If you think Santiago is just a "good #4 starter," then you must think Lester and Hamels are just "average #3 starters."