Henry Owens

TheoShmeo

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Consider the source as this was in Nicky Cafardo's notes column today.  
 
 
9. Henry Owens, LHP, Pawtucket — With the Red Sox’ top pitching prospect now in Triple A and primed to get two months’ worth of starts, if he pitches well Owens could be in competition for a starting role on the major league team next season. Said one major league scout who watched many of Owens’s starts, “There’s no reason to hold him back or not rush him. If he has success at Triple A, he’s going to make an impact at the major league level. Like any young pitcher, you have to be patient. But he has a great feel for pitching.”
 
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/08/02/following-trade-deadline-contenders-still-have-shot-improve-through-waiver-deals/VDZ3m3tYtPzRH9KwKZagRP/story.html?p1=Article_InThisSection_Bottom
 

mabrowndog

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“There’s no reason to hold him back or not rush him."
 
Even though there'd be 40-man space to add him this season (they're at 37 now, with Ryan Lavarnway due to come off the 60-day DL and take one of them shortly), Owens doesn't have to be protected for the Rule 5 draft until after the 2015 season.
 
He'll make his PawSox debut tomorrow night vs Columbus, giving him the chance to make up to 6 starts there this month before the AAA regular season ends. If they make the IL playoffs and he stays on schedule to work every 5th calendar day, he'd be lined up to start their postseason opener with the opportunity for up to 2 more outings (the IL/PCL Championship Game is Sept. 16). Between the next two months and spring training, they'll be able to see enough to know if Owens should figure into their 25-man plans for April.
 

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FWIW, Dog, Cafardo and his source seemed to be talking about Owens pitching in Boston next season if he does well in AAA this season.  I don't read that to be about this season.
 
9. Henry Owens, LHP, Pawtucket — With the Red Sox’ top pitching prospect now in Triple A and primed to get two months’ worth of starts, if he pitches well Owens could be in competition for a starting role on the major league team next season. Said one major league scout who watched many of Owens’s starts, “There’s no reason to hold him back or not rush him. If he has success at Triple A, he’s going to make an impact at the major league level. Like any young pitcher, you have to be patient. But he has a great feel for pitching.”
 

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TheoShmeo said:
Owens could be in competition for a starting role on the major league team next season.
 
In that case, I'm the idiot. Two critically important words and I missed them both. My apologies to Nick and his pal, and I retract my insulting rhetoric.
 
The stuff regarding the Rule 5 draft and the 40-man still stands, but yes, it would be much easier to move him onto the roster (and into the rotation) next spring or mid-season.
 

TheoShmeo

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The drum beat isn't going to get any quieter after Owens' AAA debut.
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/39539/owens-dazzles-in-triple-a-debut
 
The 22-year-old left-hander worked 6 2/3 scoreless innings and allowed two hits and three walks, with nine strikeouts. He tossed 100 pitches (70 strikes) and hit a batter.

Owens retired 16 of the first 19 batters he faced before allowing an infield single in the top of the sixth inning. His fastball topped out at 94, but his off-speed pitches were nasty as he routinely and consistently dropped in his curveball and changeup at 69 and 70 mph.
 
 
Whether and when to promote Owens to Boston is shaping up to be a high class problem.
 

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The media's going to have a field day with this. The trade of Lester & Lackey coupled with the continual implosions by Buchholz, the struggles of Webster, and the generally decent but still iffy track records of Workman & De La Rosa mean that tomorrow's Boston sports talk radio platforms will be about 95% "Promote Owens NOW!" and 5% Patriots. WEEI is already flooding their airwaves with this crap.
 
They're also calling him a "future ace", which despite his impressive rise and dominant AAA debut isn't an accurate portrayal of his ceiling against MLB lineups (I'd call it "irresponsible journalism" but it's not even journalism to begin with). Owens has a mid-rotation projection -- which isn't bad by any stretch, but he lacks the explosive velocity, late fastball life and/or pinpoint control that make aces what they are.
 
I think he's going to be a really good major league pitcher. I don't think he's going to be anyone's ace.
 

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I got to watch Owens for the first time on TV last night. His change up is his best pitch and it was incredible last night. He had over 10 swings and misses alone on the change up. His deception with the pitch is obvious. The batters were out in front of it all night. Most of the lazy flyouts to LF were on the change up as well. He threw the change up in every count and it was incredibly effective.
 
He has two curves. One of the curves looks like a really good pitch to me. It has sharp downward break and he got multiple batters to strike out on this pitch swinging in the dirt last night. The second curve is slow and little loopy and he seemed to throw it situations where he needed to get the curve over the plate. This pitch wasn't impressive and I was surprised it didn't get hit harder. The hardest hit ball of the night before the seventh inning was a line out to LF on this pitch.
 
I don't get the concern about the velocity on the fastball after watching him. I do get the concern about the command. His fastball seemed to have enough separation in velocity from the curve and change. He got a lot batters to foul off fastballs late in counts. His command was slightly off and he missed up quite a few times which I have read he has done consistently throughout his career, but his other stuff was so good last night that he got away with it. Most of the times he missed up were balls that hitter just took. His fastball seemed really effective on the left handers in the line up. He seemed comfortable to jam lefties with the fastball. Resulting in a broken bat ground out to one lefty and a swinging strike to another. I honestly don't remember him coming inside to too many right handers in the line up with the fastball. Which leads to my question for those who have been following more closely than I, has he attempted to learn a cutter? It is a pitch that I think would really help him with right handers. 
 
Reminded me a lot of Buchholz in the minors. Dominant off speed stuff that minor league hitters just can't touch. I went into the game preparing myself to be slightly disappointed since a lot of the stuff I've read lately has been about Owens being a 3/4 starter ceiling. I think the ceiling is higher for him with his dominant off speed pitches, but he has to gain better command of his fastball for the off speed stuff to work as well in the majors.
 

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It sounds like his curve was really on last night, which is good news generally, but especially on a debut for a new level.
I think that his 3/4 profile is upgraded a lot of the curve can end up plus, or at least close to (Ie some days it's great others it's there but not so much) or if he can turn up his command/ control a notch.
 
I think his control has improved, but it was not great, and his curve too. If these can gain consistency he could be more of a 2.
I don't think he can be reliable ace level without both AND the deception showing it really works in the bigs. But he can be a 2 with both and a 3 with either, and 4/5 today. Which isn't bad.
 
There seems to be some slow raising of estimates going on from scouts.
 

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There seems to be some slow raising of estimates going on from scouts.
I think a big reason for the upward movement of his ceiling is the rapid improvement in his control/command.  He was down a full BB/9 in AA this year versus last season's A+ and small AA sample size.  That is for his age 21 season and the general wisdom I've always heard is that lefties take longer to develop command.  Cliff Lee didn't start showing consistent command until he was 26, now he's a consistent mid-1's BB/9 guy.  Hamels was much more spotty than Owens throughout his ML career and got his first ML action at 22 with a 3.3 BB/9, which he immediately dropped to the 2's and stayed there at age 23.  Lester is another example.  He had an incredibly comparable line across the board to Owens at 21 in AA, then had a 3.9 BB/9 at 23 in AAA.  Then at the age of 24 it clicked and his BB/9 dropped into the 2's to stay there most of his career.
 
Given the rapid pace with which Owens is improving his control already and the historical trend for lefties there is a real possibility that Owens will end up as a very capable command pitcher with a killer change and very nice curve.  That is a guy who can be a #1/#2 even with a low 90's fastball.  But again, given that he's only in his age 21 season (turned 22 on July 21st) and 6'6" there is still potential for him to fill out and add a MPH or two to his fastball while still improving command.
 
And that is a really exciting thought.  Owens today looks like a valuable ML pitcher.  If in a year's time he's throwing 91-94 throughout games with a AAA BB/9 in the low 3's he'll look like the future ace everyone says he doesn't have the tools to be right now.
 

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Also, most impressive K's are the 3-2 change up that was absolutely fantastic and the 1-2 fastball that the guy had absolutely no chance of catching up to.  Would love to see the sequence leading up to that.
 

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Jed Zeppelin said:
 
Please, not a cutter.
 
It's worked for Lester. Having a 4th pitch he can go to, especially something similar to the fastball, is a really good thing for a pitcher like Owens who doesn't have a plus four-seamer. I'd rather see a cutter than a splitter if we're getting worried about additions to his arsenal.
 

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
It's worked for Lester. Having a 4th pitch he can go to, especially something similar to the fastball, is a really good thing for a pitcher like Owens who doesn't have a plus four-seamer. I'd rather see a cutter than a splitter if we're getting worried about additions to his arsenal.
 
Lester didn't have to add a cutter. The cutter was his best pitch going back to the early days -- as much a signature out pitch as Owens' changeup appears to be. Lester had to learn how to pitch without relying on the cutter.
 
A splitter would probably duplicate his changeup in speed and movement, so I don't think there would be much value to Owens adding a splitter.
 

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The thing I love is the long, elegant leg kick and easy delivery. It doesn't look forced. Another lefty who is succeeding with this right now is Scott Kazmir.
 

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Jon Lester
Truth.  There was a lot of doubt and whining about John Lester until recently, when it began to dawn on us that he was really really good.
 

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Sprowl said:
 
Lester didn't have to add a cutter. The cutter was his best pitch going back to the early days -- as much a signature out pitch as Owens' changeup appears to be. Lester had to learn how to pitch without relying on the cutter.
 
A splitter would probably duplicate his changeup in speed and movement, so I don't think there would be much value to Owens adding a splitter.
 
I just meant Lester's a lefty with a great cutter, so I don't see why anyone would be worried about Owens adding one to the mix. And I wasn't suggesting that Owens might develop a splitter instead. I was pointing out that there are far more dangerous (health-wise) pitches he could be adding than a cut fastball.
 
In short, I don't get the objection.
 

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Cherington downplayed idea of Owens in MLB this year: "There are some things he'll get out of pitching the rest of the way at Triple-A."
He's at 127 innings now (135 for 2013) and he's not on the 40-man roster. I'm not sure what's so urgent about a peek at the show that gets by innings concerns and the requisite roster move. Four more starts puts him around 150 innings, which I'd assume is plenty for his age.
 

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chrisfont9 said:
He's at 127 innings now (135 for 2013) and he's not on the 40-man roster. I'm not sure what's so urgent about a peek at the show that gets by innings concerns and the requisite roster move. Four more starts puts him around 150 innings, which I'd assume is plenty for his age.
If he starts next year with the Sox, with 150 or so inning this year, he can easily make the jump to 180 and be within the clubs innings percentage jump.
 

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Seeing him progress makes me think that (a) he's going to absolutely need to be in any deal for Stanton, and (b) I'm not so sure I want to include him, which means that I'm not so sure I want to swing the hypothetical deal with Miami.  I mean, I want Stanton, but Cespedes is Stanton-lite, and frontline lefty starters that are cost-controlled don't just grow on trees.  
 
Oh man….
 

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Not a worry. If Cherington even thought Stanton was a chance he would have loaded up on prospects at the deadline, not Craig and Cespedes. The question is will Owen be included in a trade for a pitcher?
 

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OptimusPapi said:
Not a worry. If Cherington even thought Stanton was a chance he would have loaded up on prospects at the deadline, not Craig and Cespedes. The question is will Owen be included in a trade for a pitcher?
 
Why? Are you implying the Red Sox don't have enough ammunition to trade for Stanton?
 

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rodderick said:
Has a minor league pitcher who sits below 94-95 ever been given a "number 1/2" projection by scouts and publications? I'm asking this honestly.
 
Roy Halladay (pitched a bit faster Owens) and Tom Glavine,  I guess Jered Weaver as well.
 

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rodderick said:
 
Why? Are you implying the Red Sox don't have enough ammunition to trade for Stanton?
If he is, it makes no sense.  And nothing stops them from using any of Cespedes, Kelly and Craig in a trade for Stanton or anyone else.  Or the prospects they obtained for Peavy.  Or the prospect that they obtained for Miller.  Or even the player or players they get back for Doubront.
 
The notion that the Sox have given up on Stanton because they picked up three established major leaguers ignores the many attractive parts and pieces that the Sox have on their major league team and in the minors.  That's not to say that a deal will get done.  But they certainly have the ammo.  Would the Marlins say no to Owens, Swihart and Cespedes, for example?  And if they would say no, what if they added Betts?  Or Betts and Ranaudo? 
 
To be clear, I'm not remotely advocating such a deal or any deal for that matter.  I'm just pointing out that the Sox could bring Stanton back with a package of some of the guys they have. 
 
But, back to this thread, just say no on trading Owens, Ben.
 

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rodderick said:
 
Why? Are you implying the Red Sox don't have enough ammunition to trade for Stanton?
He's saying that a team looking to get Stanton this winter doesn't pick up both Craig and Cespedes instead of straight prospects at the deadline.  Craig and Cespedes might have some sort of value in a deal for Stanton (probably have to be a three team deal then) while prospects have obvious value directly to the Marlins.  A team focused on making a run for Stanton doesn't pick the former over the later (which the Sox have outright stated they did) as it only makes their job harder.
 
Stanton has two more years until FA.  The Marlins will get a very similar deal whether they're trading two years of Stanton this winter or one year of Stanton next winter, so there is basically zero incentive to deal him this winter.  The Sox FO are likely aware of this and so have protected themselves from an OF black hole for 2015 by getting Craig and Cespedes, but neither will stop them from trading for Stanton prior to 2016 when the Marlins are motivated sellers, or going all-in for Stanton as a free agent in 2017.
 
And the later is a very likely scenario.  Stanton has toiled away with a non-competitive club for his entire career so far.  He'll basically command the biggest FA contract ever if he just plays to free agency.  Why would he give that up for some team that trades for him?  The odds he goes to FA are scary high if the price consists of some combination of Owens, Betts and Swihart.
 

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Drek717 said:
He's saying that a team looking to get Stanton this winter doesn't pick up both Craig and Cespedes instead of straight prospects at the deadline.  Craig and Cespedes might have some sort of value in a deal for Stanton (probably have to be a three team deal then) while prospects have obvious value directly to the Marlins.  A team focused on making a run for Stanton doesn't pick the former over the later (which the Sox have outright stated they did) as it only makes their job harder.
 
Stanton has two more years until FA.  The Marlins will get a very similar deal whether they're trading two years of Stanton this winter or one year of Stanton next winter, so there is basically zero incentive to deal him this winter.  The Sox FO are likely aware of this and so have protected themselves from an OF black hole for 2015 by getting Craig and Cespedes, but neither will stop them from trading for Stanton prior to 2016 when the Marlins are motivated sellers, or going all-in for Stanton as a free agent in 2017.
 
And the later is a very likely scenario.  Stanton has toiled away with a non-competitive club for his entire career so far.  He'll basically command the biggest FA contract ever if he just plays to free agency.  Why would he give that up for some team that trades for him?  The odds he goes to FA are scary high if the price consists of some combination of Owens, Betts and Swihart.
 
 
He will command way more this offseason then next because teams will be afraid next year that he will walk.  It will be a lot easier buying out two arbitration years and extending him then one.
 
The reason why he gives up free agency is he stands 40+ million over the next two years instead of 16 million in two years of arb without the risk of injury costing him.
 

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Drek717 said:
He's saying that a team looking to get Stanton this winter doesn't pick up both Craig and Cespedes instead of straight prospects at the deadline.  Craig and Cespedes might have some sort of value in a deal for Stanton (probably have to be a three team deal then) while prospects have obvious value directly to the Marlins.  A team focused on making a run for Stanton doesn't pick the former over the later (which the Sox have outright stated they did) as it only makes their job harder.
 
Stanton has two more years until FA.  The Marlins will get a very similar deal whether they're trading two years of Stanton this winter or one year of Stanton next winter, so there is basically zero incentive to deal him this winter.  The Sox FO are likely aware of this and so have protected themselves from an OF black hole for 2015 by getting Craig and Cespedes, but neither will stop them from trading for Stanton prior to 2016 when the Marlins are motivated sellers, or going all-in for Stanton as a free agent in 2017.
 
And the later is a very likely scenario.  Stanton has toiled away with a non-competitive club for his entire career so far.  He'll basically command the biggest FA contract ever if he just plays to free agency.  Why would he give that up for some team that trades for him?  The odds he goes to FA are scary high if the price consists of some combination of Owens, Betts and Swihart.
 

OptimusPapi

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Thank you Drek. And I would like to add that I see Stanton reaching free agency. First off the Marlins are not the Red Sox farm club. They have a legitimate chance to compete over the Next two years, and if they don't win it all then they get a draft pick and get to dangle all their young players for prospects. Second off all the big money clubs are going to be in on Stanton he might blow pass 10 years and 300 million why would he want to sign with the Sox and not find out what some healthy competition can net him?
 

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Owens reports to camp at 220 lbs, which has to be at least 15 up from last season.  Also some quotes there from him about being out of gas at the end of last year (160 IP represented a ~25% increase from 2013).  I'll be hugely interested to see a radar gun on him in a couple weeks.
 

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Well, he has been an absolute tire fire in Spring training so far, with another poor outing today (1 1/3 innings, 4 hits, 1 BB, 6R/4ER and no Ks), taking his 3rd loss.  Having not actually seen any of his 5 appearances in FL, can anyone who has seen him actually pitch comment?  Is he just getting bad BABIP luck/SSS issues but throwing well overall, or is he badly missing spots/not have all his pitches working?  14 hits and 6 BB allowed in 11 1/3rd innings...
 
From the ESPN summary of today's game:
 
 
Red Sox: Boston originally planned to start Henry Owens on Tuesday with Brad Johnson following him, but manager John Farrell decided to give Johnson, who along with Owens is competing for a bullpen spot, the start instead. Johnson responded by allowing one run on one hit and three walks in 3 2/3 innings. "The way he's throwing the ball, honestly he's deserving the start," Farrell said. Owens allowed five runs, four earned, in the eighth.
 
I wasn't actually under the impression that Owens was competing for a bullpen spot (yet), but perhaps I am mistaken.  He certainly can be considered a long shot now...
 

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TheYaz67 said:
Well, he has been an absolute tire fire in Spring training so far, with another poor outing today (1 1/3 innings, 4 hits, 1 BB, 6R/4ER and no Ks), taking his 3rd loss.  Having not actually seen any of his 5 appearances in FL, can anyone who has seen him actually pitch comment?  Is he just getting bad BABIP luck/SSS issues but throwing well overall, or is he badly missing spots/not have all his pitches working?  14 hits and 6 BB allowed in 11 1/3rd innings...
 
From the ESPN summary of today's game:
 
 
I wasn't actually under the impression that Owens was competing for a bullpen spot (yet), but perhaps I am mistaken.  He certainly can be considered a long shot now...
No, he's not (and wasn't) in the bullpen mix. He's a more highly regarded prospect than Johnson (though some scouts prefer Johnson), but at this point Johnson is closer to the majors, perhaps next in line after Wright. Owens, on the other hand, has a lot of work to do before he'll be in the mix for a promotion.
 

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InsideTheParker said:
Owens sent down to the minors today, per mlbn.
 
He showed that he's not ready yet, and is probably well down on the list of emergency starter callups. If we're lucky, he'll have learned from his spring shellacking: a wicked changeup alone won't fool batters. If the short term wasn't very pretty, how about the long term: did his fastball velocity show a sustainable uptick?
 

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Sprowl said:
He showed that he's not ready yet, and is probably well down on the list of emergency starter callups. If we're lucky, he'll have learned from his spring shellacking: a wicked changeup alone won't fool batters. If the short term wasn't very pretty, how about the long term: did his fastball velocity show a sustainable uptick?
So now we're using a couple of starts in ST to determine if a player is "ready" for the Show? ST stats mean nothing .. virtually everyone on the board knows this intiuitively but we still get knee jerk reactions to tiny sample sizes in practice games.
 

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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
So now we're using a couple of starts in ST to determine if a player is "ready" for the Show? ST stats mean nothing .. virtually everyone on the board knows this intiuitively but we still get knee jerk reactions to tiny sample sizes in practice games.
 
You think I'm making a knee-jerk reaction to Owens pitching poorly in games, getting bad results to show for his efforts, and getting sent to the minors? Those are three separate indicators, and they all indicate that he's not ready.
 
And yes, how a player performs in spring training is a much better indicator of whether or not he's ready than no information at all. Rather than trying to put words in my mouth, perhaps you could render an observation, a projection, or - well, anything - of your own. Otherwise, why bother to post at all?
 

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Sprowl said:
 
You think I'm making a knee-jerk reaction to Owens pitching poorly in games, getting bad results to show for his efforts, and getting sent to the minors? Those are three separate indicators, and they all indicate that he's not ready.
 
And yes, how a player performs in spring training is a much better indicator of whether or not he's ready than no information at all. Rather than trying to put words in my mouth, perhaps you could render an observation, a projection, or - well, anything - of your own. Otherwise, why bother to post at all?
 
I apologize for the somewhat over the top reaction. But .. it was two starts - in ST no less. That's meaningless. Lets put it this way - if Owens had a couple of lights out games would you be claiming he's ready for MLB? In other words, the sample size and the context render that "information" completely without value.
 
 
I wasn't suggesting anything about his readiness for full time employment in Boston. But I WAS suggesting that his performance in Pawtucket and Portland last year was a far better indicator than a couple of ST starts where he shat the bed.
 
ST is practice .. in my view the results of that practice have little value in determining a player's current skill level. 
 

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Small sample sizes aren't useless, so long as we take them in the proper context. So far (including his brief stint last year), Owens has allowed 15 earned runs over 15 2/3 innings. He's allowed 18 hits, has walked 8, struck out 11 and been taken deep twice. While the sample is small, major league hitters have annihilated him. He's very clearly not ready and this spring does serve as a data point to support that opinion.
 

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
Small sample sizes aren't useless, so long as we take them in the proper context. So far (including his brief stint last year), Owens has allowed 15 earned runs over 15 2/3 innings. He's allowed 18 hits, has walked 8, struck out 11 and been taken deep twice. While the sample is small, major league hitters have annihilated him. He's very clearly not ready and this spring does serve as a data point to support that opinion.
 
In two of the three bad outings he had this spring (against the Marlins), he was knocked around by the likes of Jeff Baker and Jordany Valdespin, who really aren't any better than guys he has regularly faced and succeeded against in AAA.
 
He may not be a ready but I don't think its quite accurate to infer that this 15 IP sample has been against hitters of a different quality to what he has succeeded against in the past and that his struggles in that sample show that he still can't handle hitters that good.  He has simply sucked ass this spring (and last) in general, against a wide range of hitters from minor league non-prospects, to AAAA guys, to major league studs (Bautista took him deep, for example).