Hindsight is 2020

RIFan

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I think it’s fairly universal that everyone wishes that the Sox did not find themselves in a position where Mookie is reporting to camp in Glendale and not Fort Meyers.

If you could jump in a time machine and go back to the spring of 18 what would you do as the ownership group differently to both put together a club capable of competing for multiple championship AND enable a CBT reset?
 

RIFan

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Easiest thing: don't extend Sale and Eovaldi after 2018. Don't give Pearce an extra year either although that was only $6 million so relatively small potatoes.
Not disagreeing, but what is your 2020 rotation? Deducting Sale and Eovaldi from the payroll and adding in replacements does that get them to the reset level?
 

RedOctober3829

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Easiest thing: don't extend Sale and Eovaldi after 2018. Don't give Pearce an extra year either although that was only $6 million so relatively small potatoes.
Eovaldi I get. It was an emotional signing in which they were bidding against themselves. However the lack of depth in the system necessitated it.

If they don't extend Sale and keep Mookie, they probably still deal off a subsidized Price to get under the LTT. While that would have been a good thing financially they would also have a need for a frontline starter since E-Rod would be your #1. Since none are coming up through the system and they don't have the high end chips to trade for one, they'd have to go overpay somebody else.
 

Ale Xander

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I think it’s fairly universal that everyone wishes that the Sox did not find themselves in a position where Mookie is reporting to camp in Glendale and not Fort Meyers.

If you could jump in a time machine and go back to the spring of 18 what would you do as the ownership group differently to both put together a club capable of competing for multiple championship AND enable a CBT reset?
I would go to November 18, not the spring.

No long contracts to the 3 expensive starters. (Trade Price when the his stock was high).
 

Kliq

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The problem continues to be that the Red Sox have failed to develop starting pitching within their own organization, with the exception of Eduardo (and he wasn't really developed by Boston anyway). That forces them to have to pay on the free agent market to fill out their rotation, and they lack cost-effective pitching options because of it.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Not disagreeing, but what is your 2020 rotation? Deducting Sale and Eovaldi from the payroll and adding in replacements does that get them to the reset level?
They're punting 2020 as it is. I'd far rather go into 2020 with Mookie as the franchise cornerstone for the next 10 years instead of with a broken down and overpaid Sale and Eovaldi.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I wouldn't change a thing, because I don't think getting under the CBT by having never re-signed/extended Eovaldi and Sale makes a lick of difference when it comes to extending Mookie beyond 2020. Let Eovaldi walk last winter and Sale this winter, and they're still faced with only having Mookie for only one more year AND they've got more holes in the rotation. If you want to "fix" the 2020 situation, you probably have to go a lot further back than 2018. You probably have to back to November 2014 and not sign Hanley or Sandoval, or to July 2013 and not signed Pedroia to a 8 year extension (if we're using hindsight, we know he's toast after four years so sign him for that long instead). Then I'd go back to 2011 and sign a freshly drafted Mookie Betts to a 25 year deal.
 

tims4wins

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They're punting 2020 as it is. I'd far rather go into 2020 with Mookie as the franchise cornerstone for the next 10 years instead of with a broken down and overpaid Sale and Eovaldi.
It is not possible for him to be the franchise cornerstone for the next 10 years if he is not under contract.
 
Jul 21, 2005
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Assuming that the goal was to reset the luxury tax I really don't see any preferrable course they could have taken. Even if they had held off on giving Sale the extension and declined to sign Eovaldi and Pierce; I don't think they could have gotten under and reset the tax last year. It would have undoubtably given them the ability to sign Mookie for 35-37 million a year and still get under the tax this offseason with the money from Sale's original contract, Panda and Porcello also coming off the books. But the problem is that under this scenario you are starting this year with a rotation of Price, Erod and .... Filling out the rotation and bench likely either puts you over again anyway. Maybe Sale's injury plagued 2019 would have allowed for a small discount but I'd be skeptical. They could have also pulled back on the extension to Xander, but that would have been, in retrospect, an even worse decision.

edit; what Red(s)Hawks fan said.
 

bankshot1

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I think we all are centered on mostly same issues, (Sale, Price, Evo) but If I'm allowed a 2nd guess, (but bending the time setting on the time machine) that might enable a strong competitive team and CBT relief, I'd say not resigning Jon Lester, when they could have, put them into a position of being wholly depedent upon FA starters and making a series of expensive long-term mistakes. All things considered he's been dependable and pretty good for the Cubs, and maybe we duck the Price contract (or maybe don't rush into a Sale extension) if they had not fucked up the Lester negotiations.

This is a pure 2nd guess, but I was very vocal at the time that low-ballling Lester was dumb.
 

YTF

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IMO hindsight is something you have AFTER you know how things have played out. As of today we know nothing more than we knew last week, last month or even four months ago other than the roster has changed and payroll has been shed. You asked, "If you could jump in a time machine and go back to the spring of 18 what would you do as the ownership group differently to both put together a club capable of competing for multiple championship AND enable a CBT reset? " The groundwork for this MAY have been laid. I can't judge this until I see how it all plays out. I mean just look at some of the threads we have here. All of a sudden people are becoming open to the idea of taking in Wil Meyers. There was no way anyone wanted him for Mookie, but now that Betts is gone we're entertaining the idea that it might be a good thing? My point being there are lots of wheels in motion here. If Mookie went without Price being packaged with him the return would have been different. If Price goes separately do they get the payroll relief they were looking for? Does Price get packaged with someone else after the Betts deal? There are a fuck load of moving parts here and until the dust settles we still won't know the makeup of the roster, the total payroll $$$ shed or the return in prospects/cost controlled players.
 

Danny_Darwin

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I think we all are centered on mostly same issues, (Sale, Price, Evo) but If I'm allowed a 2nd guess, (but bending the time setting on the time machine) that might enable a strong competitive team and CBT relief, I'd say not resigning Jon Lester, when they could have, put them into a position of being wholly depedent upon FA starters and making a series of expensive long-term mistakes. All things considered he's been dependable and pretty good for the Cubs, and maybe we duck the Price contract (or maybe don't rush into a Sale extension) if they had not fucked up the Lester negotiations.

This is a pure 2nd guess, but I was very vocal at the time that low-ballling Lester was dumb.
Or trade Lester, Lackey, and (I’ll say it) Koji for prospects and get some actual pitchers instead of the “reload, not rebuild” strategy Cherington opted for.
 

moondog80

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Not disagreeing, but what is your 2020 rotation? Deducting Sale and Eovaldi from the payroll and adding in replacements does that get them to the reset level?
I don't know, maybe they keep Price in that scenario?

I should add that I am of the thought that getting under the CBT was just a side benefit of the Mookie trade. It really boiled down to the fact they didn't want to commit to what it would have taken to re-sign him.
 

nvalvo

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IMO hindsight is something you have AFTER you know how things have played out. As of today we know nothing more than we knew last week, last month or even four months ago other than the roster has changed and payroll has been shed. You asked, "If you could jump in a time machine and go back to the spring of 18 what would you do as the ownership group differently to both put together a club capable of competing for multiple championship AND enable a CBT reset? " The groundwork for this MAY have been laid. I can't judge this until I see how it all plays out. I mean just look at some of the threads we have here. All of a sudden people are becoming open to the idea of taking in Wil Meyers. There was no way anyone wanted him for Mookie, but now that Betts is gone we're entertaining the idea that it might be a good thing? My point being there are lots of wheels in motion here. If Mookie went without Price being packaged with him the return would have been different. If Price goes separately do they get the payroll relief they were looking for? Does Price get packaged with someone else after the Betts deal? There are a fuck load of moving parts here and until the dust settles we still won't know the makeup of the roster, the total payroll $$$ shed or the return in prospects/cost controlled players.
As part of an effort to build a contender for 2020, Myers sucked.

As part of an effort to build a contender for 2022-25, Myers (as the price to bring in a young SP and a good catching prospect) is pretty interesting.

They trade Price then, the angry thread here is at 15,000 posts by now
I don't think that's so certain. If I remember, we were all assuming that the team would be choosing one of Price or Sale, as they have in fact now done. I think the most likely scenario appeared at the time to be that Sale would be the one leaving, after the extension he signed with the White Sox was completed, because I don't think anyone really expected that we could have two ~$30m AAV pitchers on the roster long-term. And... now we don't.

Some people would have been upset, of course, but most would have reasoned that Price was brought in to win a WS, he won one, and now it was time to get out of the back of the deal while the getting was good, even if the return was slight, which it likely would've been, playoff heroics or no.

If the team chose neither Price nor Sale — if they dealt Price without extending Sale — then I think your point would be more accurate. Perhaps that's what you meant.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Price should have been WS MVP.

Had they traded him that offseasons thise Mookie threads would have preceded by similar, although without as much personal praise, Price threads. Complete with I AM NEVER WATCHING THEM AGAIN and #notmyredsox posts
 

YTF

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As part of an effort to build a contender for 2020, Myers sucked.

As part of an effort to build a contender for 2022-25, Myers (as the price to bring in a young SP and a good catching prospect) is pretty interesting.
Definitely more the latter than the former. As per the opening post, "both put together a club capable of competing for multiple championship AND enable a CBT reset".
 

jon abbey

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I just don’t think it’s realistic to have the best team in franchise history and not try to reassemble them for a repeat attempt. It didn’t work but IMO you have to try. The Astros went after Eovaldi hard in free agency, can you imagine if he had been great for them and BOS had come up a few games short because of his absence?
 

moondog80

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I just don’t think it’s realistic to have the best team in franchise history and not try to reassemble them for a repeat attempt. It didn’t work but IMO you have to try. The Astros went after Eovaldi hard in free agency, can you imagine if he had been great for them and BOS had come up a few games short because of his absence?

But those are the adult decisions well-run teams make. Classic example being the Cardinals letting Albert Pujols go after winning the WS in 2011.
 

jon abbey

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But those are the adult decisions well-run teams make. Classic example being the Cardinals letting Albert Pujols go after winning the WS in 2011.
That STL team only won 90 games, not 108, and they still offered Pujols 10/210 but were (luckily) outbid.
 

tims4wins

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Signing Eovaldi was a risk, there is no doubt about that, but a risk that would have resulted in massive upside if he continued to pitch like he did in 2018. Obviously 2019 was a lost year, but if he pitches well in 2020-2022 then his contract will still be a bargain. That is still TBD.

Everyone keeps talking about Mookie, but the 2020 season was always going to be about pitching. If Sale and Eovaldi bounce back, this team will be good. If not, they will suck. Mookie is irrelevant to that discussion.
 

soxin6

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As I've mentioned before, they could have easily paid Mookie his asking price if reports are to be believed. They chose not to.
As you said, they were never going to pay Mookie his asking price. The Red Sox do not seem interested in giving a 10+ year contract. So your solution would be great in terms of luxury tax, but Mookie was highly unlikely to re-sign with the Red Sox unless an unexpected offer came from ownership.
 

jon abbey

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IMO no moves they have made or could have made in 2018-2019 changed the chances of Mookie signing here after this season. If the idea is to never trade Mookie, the time machine move necessary probably is to go back 5-6 years and hire Friedman as the GM then before the Dodgers get him, but then maybe the 2018 title never happens.
 

johnnywayback

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IMO no moves they have made or could have made in 2018-2019 changed the chances of Mookie signing here after this season. If the idea is to never trade Mookie, the time machine move necessary probably is to go back 5-6 years and hire Friedman as the GM then before the Dodgers get him, but then maybe the 2018 title never happens.
I agree with this. And, frankly, the thing I'd be most tempted to do with my time machine is trade Mookie at the deadline in 2019 so we could spend this off-season re-investing in the 2020 team.
 

curly2

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In true hindsight, you let Eovaldi go and sign Morton for two years.

You also trade ALCS MVP Jackie Bradley Jr. to the win-now Reds for Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray.
 

jon abbey

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In true hindsight, you let Eovaldi go and sign Morton for two years.

You also trade ALCS MVP Jackie Bradley Jr. to the win-now Reds for Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray.
There you go, maybe top NY’s 2/24 for LeMahieu also.
 

chawson

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There’s a case that rather than package Betts with Price this offseason, we might have packaged Benintendi with Price or Porcello after 2018.

I really wonder what that package might have received then. A package of Benny, Porcello and Groome bringing back Syndergaard and a half-subsidized Jay Bruce probably swung in the Mets' favor at the time, or maybe even Benny/Price for the same package and Bruce's full contract. A deal like Benintendi and Porcello to Cleveland for Bieber and Encarnacion would also have looked bad for us then, and pretty damn good right now.

From there, you hold off on Sale's extension, let Eovaldi and Pearce walk. Trade Brian Johnson and Swihart for whatever. Sign Homer Bailey to the minor-league deal he got from the Royals (some serious hindsight there) and Wilmer Flores to the 1/$4.25 deal he got from Arizona. In the first scenario -- Beni/Porcello for Syndergaard/Bruce (at 2/$14m), you're at about $200m and have reset the cap.