Hire Farrell? (12/5: 2018 Option Exercised)

Beale13

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Feb 2, 2006
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Really? If Shaw gets a hit in the 9th to tie the game, then Papi is on deck, and could either be hitting in the 9th (if Mookie walks to load the bases) or leading off the bottom of the 10th. So the possibility was not at all remote that Papi could have had another meaningful AB.

In this case, I think JF did the right thing by using the PR when he did.
Right, and what's the worse case scenario here? Marco Hernandez makes an out. And you play on.

Give yourself the best chance to tie the game, then worry about how to get it done in extra innings.
 

Byrdbrain

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So you are proposing taking Ortiz out of the game on the chance that Hanley hits a double in the gap that would score a faster runner than Ortiz.
Let's play with some numbers:
Hanley hit 28 doubles in 609 plate appearances, lets throw in the 1 triple he got as well assuming Ortiz is so slow he wouldn't score on that either. So that is a 4.7% chance to hit a ball that a runner could score from first on. From some quick searches it looks like runners score from first on a double roughly 40% of the time, I doubt it is that high in Fenway especially with the defense playing deep to avoid such a thing from happening but lets ignore those things. Let's assume that with 2 outs that number goes up a bit, lets call it 60% of the time, So that means roughly 3 out of 100 at bats Hanley would be expected to hit a ball that an average runner would score from first on.
That very slight increase in a chance of scoring now has to be balanced against what you are giving up. As has been mentioned if Shaw reaches last night then Ortiz' spot is on deck so to say it is some kind of crazy longshot that his spot would come up again is simply wrong.
Once Ortiz reaches second then the scoring options become more reasonable and the general consensus is that the risk of losing the bat overcome the reward of potentially scoring.

Obviously these numbers are really rough but to say that pulling Ortiz in that spot is an error on Farrell's part comparable to Buck not pitching his best player in a tied game is insane.

I think I've wasted enough time on this particular subject so I'm done.
 

Beale13

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Feb 2, 2006
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I think your conclusion that the comparison is insane is a little result-oriented. If Ubaldo gets them out of the inning and then Britton goes on to save the game later on Buck would have had lots of defenders and few attackers. And if Hanley doubled and Ortiz was stranded on third I wouldn't be close to the lone voice on this.

But the doubles rate of Hanley is well-taken - turns out he's the only player on the roster more likely to homer than double (he had the same imbalance last year, the only two years of his career where that is the case). I assumed his doubles rate was higher than that. It's a little more likely in Fenway at 5.9%, but still lower than I would have thought.

On the other hand, Ortiz only gets a meaningful at bat to tie or win the game in regulation if one of two things happen - either Kimbrel gives up a run to the bottom of the Indians lineup in the top of the 9th, or the Red Sox strand the bases loaded without scoring a run in both the eighth and ninth innings. The latter is highly unlikely, the former is less so, but still not something Farrell should be putting into his game decision calculator when what the team desperately needed then was one run. I hate the cliche about playing for a tie when at home, but I think it should be taken even farther in post-season play. That late in the game, you play for the tie whether you're home or away, since you're going to unload all your resources with much more abandon, like having Kimbrel pitch more than inning. Such thought processes should have been particularly in play for Farrell, since he was almost through the tough part of the Indian pen.

I appreciate the stat research though, and will concede that it's a closer call than I thought. Still think it would have been the right play though.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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The decision to use Wright as a pinch runner has been discussed before. If Ortiz had gotten hurt trying to score from 2nd, the board would have been on fire. Wright had a mental lapse, and that was entirely on the pitcher. And pulling Buchholz in that Series game at that time was not an option.

Chisenhall had an excellent at bat against Price. But I'm not sure how Tito gets all the credit and Farrell all the blame in that situation. The players play, and in this case one guy made the play and the other didn't. That had nothing to do with either manager.
I'm not giving Tito credit for him getting the big hit, but for putting him in the starting lineup to begin with, which is something I don't think Farrell would have done. And I don't believe am AL team should ever use a pitcher for a pinch runner unless it's the last guy in the bullpen depth chart, certainly not a hot starting pitcher. Yes, it was Wright's mistake, but Farrell put him in the position to make it. That should be grounds for examining his ability to properly manage a major market, perennial contender of a team. If it's not, so be it, but it was a bad move that cost them an important arm no matter how you look at it or assign blame. Whomever is at fault, Farrell made the call and it ultimately falls on him in my book.

Put another way, Tito doesn't do that. I don't even think Valentine or Little do either.
 

Red Leader

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Aug 2, 2009
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I'm not giving Tito credit for him getting the big hit, but for putting him in the starting lineup to begin with, which is something I don't think Farrell would have done. And I don't believe am AL team should ever use a pitcher for a pinch runner unless it's the last guy in the bullpen depth chart, certainly not a hot starting pitcher. Yes, it was Wright's mistake, but Farrell put him in the position to make it. That should be grounds for examining his ability to properly manage a major market, perennial contender of a team. If it's not, so be it, but it was a bad move that cost them an important arm no matter how you look at it or assign blame. Whomever is at fault, Farrell made the call and it ultimately falls on him in my book.

Put another way, Tito doesn't do that. I don't even think Valentine or Little do either.
Tito pinch ran Clay Buchholz in an American League game.
 

rembrat

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I'm not giving Tito credit for him getting the big hit, but for putting him in the starting lineup to begin with, which is something I don't think Farrell would have done.
Lonnie Chisenhall started 119 games in RF. That wasn't a genius move, that was the closest thing to an everyday RF as Tito has had all year.

And Farrell has done something similar to what you're suggesting he wouldn't have done when he played Jonny Gomes over Daniel Nava during the 2013 postseason and it kinda worked out pretty spectacularly.
 

lexrageorge

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I'm not giving Tito credit for him getting the big hit, but for putting him in the starting lineup to begin with, which is something I don't think Farrell would have done. And I don't believe am AL team should ever use a pitcher for a pinch runner unless it's the last guy in the bullpen depth chart, certainly not a hot starting pitcher. Yes, it was Wright's mistake, but Farrell put him in the position to make it. That should be grounds for examining his ability to properly manage a major market, perennial contender of a team. If it's not, so be it, but it was a bad move that cost them an important arm no matter how you look at it or assign blame. Whomever is at fault, Farrell made the call and it ultimately falls on him in my book.

Put another way, Tito doesn't do that. I don't even think Valentine or Little do either.
The pinch running of a pitcher is something that happens time to time in the NL. It's just not as big of a deal as it's being made out to be. There was simply no reason for Wright to get hurt.
 

Red Leader

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Tito pinch ran Clay Buchholz in an American League game.
Very true, of course. Simply pointing out that when negatively comparing JF to Tito, pinch running pitchers can't be used as a mark against him.

Edit: replying to SJH. Don't know how quote works.
 

Adrian's Dome

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And Farrell has done something similar to what you're suggesting he wouldn't have done when he played Jonny Gomes over Daniel Nava during the 2013 postseason and it kinda worked out pretty spectacularly.
Jonny Gomes, 2013 WS: .118/.286/.294. 17 AB, 2 H.
Daniel Nava, 2013 vs RHP: .322/.411/.484 in 339 AB.

Gomes hit like shit. Just because he ran into one doesn't make it a wise move, I'd much rather my manager consistently make moves that set the team up to win, not make moves based on "feel" hoping that they work out in the end. That was the straightest platoon setup you're ever going to see and Farrell consistently went against it.
 

joe dokes

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Jonny Gomes, 2013 WS: .118/.286/.294. 17 AB, 2 H.
Daniel Nava, 2013 vs RHP: .322/.411/.484 in 339 AB.

Gomes hit like shit. Just because he ran into one doesn't make it a wise move, I'd much rather my manager consistently make moves that set the team up to win, not make moves based on "feel" hoping that they work out in the end. That was the straightest platoon setup you're ever going to see and Farrell consistently went against it.

I dont think the merits of the move were under discussion. Someone suggested that Farrell would never do what Terry "Tito Maddon Showalter Einstein" Francona did by putting LHH Chisenhall (52 PA's -- 12% or so -- vs. LHP's all season) in against Price.
 

Toe Nash

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I dont think the merits of the move were under discussion. Someone suggested that Farrell would never do what Terry "Tito Maddon Showalter Einstein" Francona did by putting LHH Chisenhall (52 PA's -- 12% or so -- vs. LHP's all season) in against Price.
Rembrat specifically linked to the Gomes HR though.

Chisenhall had a 1.308 OPS in small sample against Price which I suspect is why that move was made -- we've known Tito to make similar calls in the past. I disagree with the usefulness of 13 PA over multiple years but that is at least some specific data to make a move against your normal platoon. JF's reason for playing Gomes was something about how the lineup "felt different" with him in it, which is a dumb reason.
 

uncannymanny

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Which one of these moves caused our top 2 pitchers to crap their pants again?

For all he reverence, if Ortiz doesn't bail out the team multiple times in 2004, Tito is JAG who gets fired after a few seasons. If anyone got hits like that this series we may still be playing.
 

joe dokes

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Rembrat specifically linked to the Gomes HR though.

Chisenhall had a 1.308 OPS in small sample against Price which I suspect is why that move was made -- we've known Tito to make similar calls in the past. I disagree with the usefulness of 13 PA over multiple years but that is at least some specific data to make a move against your normal platoon. JF's reason for playing Gomes was something about how the lineup "felt different" with him in it, which is a dumb reason.
He mentioned the HR, but I thought he was responding to the "Farrell never" part. He can speak for himself.

13 PA over multiple years is nonsense and if Farrell started Young over benintendi against a RHP because of 13 PAs people would break the internet and you know it. Tito went with his gut just like Farrell did with Gomes.

There have been dozens of examples given in these various threads of the geniuses doing the same shit-that-makes-us-mad as Farrell, or Farrell doing the same shit-that-makes-us-hard as the geniuses.

Did Bochy mismanage the SF pen right out of the playoffs last night, or does his pen suck? Does his pen suck because he sucks or because the pitchers suck? Or maybe Righetti is only successful when he has great pitchers? I don't know. Others seem to.
 

rembrat

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He mentioned the HR, but I thought he was responding to the "Farrell never" part. He can speak for himself.

There have been dozens of examples given in these various threads of the geniuses doing the same shit-that-makes-us-mad as Farrell, or Farrell doing the same shit-that-makes-us-hard as the geniuses.
Absolutely. It was in response to a poster who claimed Farrell will never do the "little things it takes to steal a win in big games" in reference to Chisenhall taking Price deep which lead me to post about Gomes and his huge World Series home run. I'm sure the goalposts will now shift and around we go.
 

Moviegoer

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Tito pinch ran Clay Buchholz in an American League game.
And he got criticized for doing it, if I recall correctly. Also if I remember correctly, he hadn't done anything so boneheaded for a good while before that or for a good while after that either.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Absolutely. It was in response to a poster who claimed Farrell will never do the "little things it takes to steal a win in big games" in reference to Chisenhall taking Price deep which lead me to post about Gomes and his huge World Series home run. I'm sure the goalposts will now shift and around we go.
I especially appreciated when he tried to steal that win by letting Workman hit. That was truly the pinnacle of managerial excellence.
 

Sampo Gida

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The pinch running of a pitcher is something that happens time to time in the NL. It's just not as big of a deal as it's being made out to be. There was simply no reason for Wright to get hurt.
NL pitchers run the bases, they do it all the time, at least when they get on base when they hit. AL pitchers don't. Plus, if you are going to PR a pitcher on a AL roster, pick one of your more athletic pitchers and a less valuable pitcher, not an unathletic All Star pitcher.
 

TheoShmeo

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Yeah, especially one that cost them the World Series.

Oh
Meh, it was a terrible decision. That it did not have a terrible result doesn't change that.

When Buck Showalter did not go to Britton, I assume many of us were thinking something like "this is a terrible decision; he better hope that it doesn't bite him in the ass; who knows, maybe he'll look a little better or even good if he can use Britton to get the save; forget that, stupid decision." That it might have worked out doesn't change that Showalter screwed up, and that it did work out for Farrell doesn't either.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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I had my timeliness off. My bad. Criticism of Farrell retracted in that regard. I still think it was a questionable decision but that's probably why I'm not am MLB manager. But, yeah, withdrawn.
 

PTC

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Nov 10, 2006
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Is it worth it to fire a replacement level manager if you aren't 100% sure you'll get a tangible upgrade? Not a JF fan, but who else is going to actually make an impact here?
 

timlinin8th

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The pinch running of a pitcher is something that happens time to time in the NL. It's just not as big of a deal as it's being made out to be. There was simply no reason for Wright to get hurt.
This argument has been rehashed many many times across this board, so its just talking in circles, but the counter to this point is that when pitchers run in the NL, they have some experience doing so, vs Wright who had basically come right out and said he hadn't run the bases since high school. He had no idea how huge his lead actually was, most likely due to this inexperience.

Wright took a very big lead, and wasn't expecting a throw to the bag from Blanton.

“That's why I more like dove, jump backed to the bag vs. slide, because it caught me off guard," Wright said. "I didn't think my lead was that big and I panicked, I just jumped back. My initial reaction was 'don't get picked off.' That's the last thing I wanted to do."
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2016/08/steven_wright_hurt_shoulder_pinch_running_replaced_by_clay

Also, even in the NL, very rarely will you see a manager use one of their top starters as a pinch runner - if Kershaw or Arrieta were used as a pinch runner and got hurt their managers would be similarly criticized. They'll use their number four or number 5 guy, which is what Farrell should have done if he was so hell-bent on using a pitcher to run instead of Hanley or Leon (and they had just acquired a guy from an NL team that fits this description exactly in Pomeranz). Worst case you dig into your bullpen depth chart and have Robbie Ross or Tazawa run (caveat: I don't remember if Tazawa was on the roster during that game, but you get the point).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Also, even in the NL, very rarely will you see a manager use one of their top starters as a pinch runner - if Kershaw or Arrieta were used as a pinch runner and got hurt their managers would be similarly criticized. They'll use their number four or number 5 guy, which is what Farrell should have done if he was so hell-bent on using a pitcher to run instead of Hanley or Leon (and they had just acquired a guy from an NL team that fits this description exactly in Pomeranz). Worst case you dig into your bullpen depth chart and have Robbie Ross or Tazawa run (caveat: I don't remember if Tazawa was on the roster during that game, but you get the point).
A couple weeks before the fated Steven Wright incident, Bruce Bochy used his ace as a pinch hitter then pinch ran for him with another of his high-priced starters.

A few years ago, Don Mattingly used Clayton Kershaw as a pinch runner. The linked article is one criticizing the decision, but it also illustrates why Mattingly chose to do it. Mattingly's replacement with the Dodgers apparently learned not to use Kershaw in that way, instead using Kenta Maeda as a runner in a game about a month before Wright got hurt.

It happens. Sometimes you're in a position where it's all hands on deck and everyone's got to contribute something even if it is outside their normal job description. And sometimes, shit happens. It all coalesced in one moment that night in Chavez Ravine.
 

lexrageorge

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There were 2 pitchers that were definitely not available to pitch that day: Wright and EdRod. The latter had been dealing with knee issues, so you can scratch him.

A reliever may have been a possibility, but that was the pitcher's spot, so the reliever would be burned given that he would not have had a chance to warm up. Burning a reliever in a close road game in an NL park is not ideal either.

Pomeranz would have been a possibility, although he's been on base a total of 11 times in 6 seasons (not counting his 2 career home runs). Not sure he would be any better. And perhaps he was being held back for spot relief duty. And there were the stories of Pomeranz being possibly injured already. An example of many factors of which we are unaware, factors that go into the decision process the manager uses when deciding who to play when during the endless regular season.

Freak injuries happen all the time. You really cannot manage solely to avoid injury. People complaining about the Wright injury are nowhere near irritating and clueless than those complaining about Swihart's, but still, what Farrell did is not so beyond the pale that he deserves to be fired over it.
 

joe dokes

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There were 2 pitchers that were definitely not available to pitch that day: Wright and EdRod. The latter had been dealing with knee issues, so you can scratch him.

A reliever may have been a possibility, but that was the pitcher's spot, so the reliever would be burned given that he would not have had a chance to warm up. Burning a reliever in a close road game in an NL park is not ideal either.

Pomeranz would have been a possibility, although he's been on base a total of 11 times in 6 seasons (not counting his 2 career home runs). Not sure he would be any better. And perhaps he was being held back for spot relief duty. And there were the stories of Pomeranz being possibly injured already. An example of many factors of which we are unaware, factors that go into the decision process the manager uses when deciding who to play when during the endless regular season.

.

Having seen Pomeranz play defense like a giraffe with broken glass in his shoes, I'm not sure he would have been much less of a danger to himself than was wright..
 

BJBossman

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Lonnie Chisenhall started 119 games in RF. That wasn't a genius move, that was the closest thing to an everyday RF as Tito has had all year.

And Farrell has done something similar to what you're suggesting he wouldn't have done when he played Jonny Gomes over Daniel Nava during the 2013 postseason and it kinda worked out pretty spectacularly.
he was great last year, not so great this year (defensively). And he made some bafflingly bad gaffes in the playoffs this year. Include turning a single to right into a run (with a runner on first) in game 7.