Hold the Mayo? Evaluating Patriots coaching.

EddieYost

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This is barely believable and someone should (and will) check me, but the all time record, combined, of all pro football teams appears to be 24,196 wins, 23,803 losses, 725 ties. That’s a winning percentage of .496.

Therefore, the vast majority of coaches have not gone on to greatness.

Pulled this data from pro football reference.
What? When one team wins another team has to lose. No?
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah.... Kraft is not groveling, and BB... well if he got some good groveling out of it he might be petty enough to make his triumphant return, but particularly with Kraft taking shots recently (because he fooled himself into thinking this was going to be better than last year so he's throwing a little tantrum) and BB taking that as leave to open up the criticism... yeah I don't see it.


Kraft as the submissive. Yes, this tracks.

It's Vrabel. It's always been Vrabel. And he'll keep most of the staff. And it probably won't work. But we'll get more, "I've known since 2004, when I saw him sitting contemplatively in his locker, that he was the one..." digressions from Bob.
I don't know. I think Kraft considered him for sure but..... Vrabel's rep is he's an absolute nightmare to work with.. given how much Kraft has complained about how much Bill was so bad to work with.... can't imagine he jumps right back on that train... but in some ways worse, at least Bill was the coach and GM so he was just an asshole but the drama was minimal... Vrabel in TEN by most accounts was constantly fighting and maneuvering with everybody in the building.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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This is not an historically bad team. Just a run of the mill bad team and bad coaching staff. That’s probably good for a couple wins. The chances things bottom out to the point where Kraft has to admit he made a mistake in hand picking (without any search) BB’s successors are tiny.
They just got smoked by another of the teams thought to be pretty bad. I think historically bad is still in play.
 

axx

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Bill needs to accept that he's too old to coach anymore.

They just got smoked by another of the teams thought to be pretty bad. I think historically bad is still in play.
The Pats do play a bunch of teams that currently have losing records too.
 

Hoya81

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One other thing that I didn't really think about before is that BB's coaching tree was always considered pretty rough - McDaniels, Patricia, Crennel, Judge, BOB, Weis, Mangini, etc. were all pretty lousy HCs and Vrabel (former player, not a coach under BB) was probably the best of the bunch and even he was more good than stellar. In a weird way, I am not sure why I thought Mayo would break that cycle.
Flores probably deserves some re-evaluation if and when he gets another HC gig. His first 7 games in Miami were also a disaster, going 0-7 and including a 4 game stretch were they were out-scored 163-26. But he managed to pull it together and go 24-18 over his next 42 games.
 

lexrageorge

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One other thing that I didn't really think about before is that BB's coaching tree was always considered pretty rough - McDaniels, Patricia, Crennel, Judge, BOB, Weis, Mangini, etc. were all pretty lousy HCs and Vrabel (former player, not a coach under BB) was probably the best of the bunch and even he was more good than stellar. In a weird way, I am not sure why I thought Mayo would break that cycle.
Flores probably deserves some re-evaluation if and when he gets another HC gig. His first 7 games in Miami were also a disaster, going 0-7 and including a 4 game stretch were they were out-scored 163-26. But he managed to pull it together and go 24-18 over his next 42 games.
O’Brien had a good run with Houston as coach. Didn’t work so well when he as given GM-like authority as well. But his coaching was fine.

Nick Saban is another counter example to the narrative.
 

skip wright

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Can someone summarize the reasons to be worried? What is there that isn't fixable with experience (media relations) or a better roster / good injury luck (literally everything)?

Like, if he seems bad with Xs and Os he could be just trying to hide weaknesses in the personnel. If he's saying the wrong thing to the press he can get better at that. If the team seems unprepared I'm not sure how you would separate that from having guys who aren't NFL starters at most of the positions or playing next to someone who has 10 snaps of experience. The end of half decisions aren't great but could also be explained by the above.

I think it's way too soon to know anything unless you were literally watching all the practices or something. I'm more concerned Wolf and the scouting department doesn't know what they're doing, but I don't know that either. The answer to all of this is that you wait until near the end of the season anyway.
my first clue that this might be a train wreck came when within days of mayo gettin hired.he stated that the pats were getting ready to spend some serious coin signing free agents.two days later he is doing the moonwalk all the way to foxboro.so we still have a boatload of cap money unspent.of course we can roll it into next year.then we have the drake maye experiment...is he gonna sit the whole year?is he gonna play?it seems like every time mayo speaks robert kraft steps in publicly and corrects mayo.it kinda seems like we are moving in the direction of a jerry jones regime......the owner lets the coach publicly make a statement then steps in and corrects him publicly.im thinking that perhaps robert kraft possibly didnt properly explain to jerod mayo what his actual job description is.it seems to me this started when brady left.i know kraft has a huge ego and wants all the credit for the years we dominated the nfl but thats not happening.after 20 years of drafting in the lower ten percent of the league it finally caught up with us.a couple bad drafts put the final nails in our coffin.we are bereft of talent,coaching is terrible,players dont know the fundamentals,injuries are killing us,our offensive line maybe is the worst line in nfl history,and now if our coach holds a press conference and says the sky is blue,our owner holds one and says the sky is red.maybe the first thing we need to do is go back to handling things in house like we used to.
 

Jimbodandy

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Was listening to Evan and Tiki on WFAN this afternoon. Evan has a conspiracy theory (his words) that Mayo will be fired at end of season and Kraft will bring back Belichick.
His reasoning:
  • BB loves Maye
  • BB trashing Mayo
  • Tons of cap space
  • Getting the gang back together
I think he's off his rocker. But how would people feel about this?

If BB could bring back Steve and Josh, I think I'd think it might be worth doing. If he could bring back Scar then I'm in 100%.
Threads like this make me miss the tinfoil hat guy in Kenmore square. And the Rat. But mostly the tinfoil hat guy.
 

astrozombie

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O’Brien had a good run with Houston as coach. Didn’t work so well when he as given GM-like authority as well. But his coaching was fine.

Nick Saban is another counter example to the narrative.
Nick Saban was an awful NFL coach. He was a great college coach obviously, but I specified (or meant to specify at least) that I meant at the NFL level. BOB was good at Penn State too, esp post-scandal. Weis had a few good ND years. One day JMD is going to go to some PAC10 school and coach teams that average 60 points a game. Ferentz was another person on BB's staff who had a lot of success in college. I presume it's because BB always got smart X and Os type coaches who - in college - you don't have to balance talent acquisition with budgets or an owner or anything. You just recruit the best players you can (frustrating and not for everyone, but it's not like there are constraints) and play them.
This is less at you, but the sum response to my comment is that I need to consider Saban (horrible NFL coach, great college one), Flores (not great in Miami though I am guessing he gets another chance in the future and was dealing with other challenges) and BOB in Houston (4 games over .500 and was good actually, YMMV). Again, I am not sure you look at those as the epitome of success off the BB NFL coaching tree and think "I gotta get in on that" with Mayo.
 

BaseballJones

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In retrospect, nothing was as bad as Clive Rush or Rod Rust at the helm. We've had worse. Trust me.
For sure. I mean, back in those days, not only was the coaching catastrophically bad, there was absolutely no reason whatsoever to think there was any hope for the future. One look at the QB position from 1990-1992 (1-15, 6-10, 2-14) and you find Marc Wilson and Hugh Millen.

Just to remind everyone....

In 1990, Marc Wilson was 33 years old and put up this passing line: 52.5%, 1,625 yds, 6 td, 11 int, 61.6 rating.
In 1991, Hugh Millen was 28 years old and put up this passing line: 60.1%, 3,073 yds, 9 td, 18 int, 72.5 rating.
In 1992, Hugh Millen was 29 years old and put up this passing line: 61.1%, 1,203 yds, 8 td, 10 int, 70.3 rating.

At least in 2024, the Patriots, for all their warts (and there are plenty), at least have a 22 year old apparent stud at QB who in just two games (plus a couple minutes of garbage time in a third) has put up this line:

64.1%, 541 yds, 5 td, 2 int, 95.1 rating

So yeah, as bad as it is now, it's not without hope, and it's not even close to as bad as it was in those dark days.
 

jk333

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Nick Saban was an awful NFL coach. He was a great college coach obviously, but I specified (or meant to specify at least) that I meant at the NFL level. BOB was good at Penn State too, esp post-scandal.
Saban was 2 games under .500 in two seasons with Gus Ferrotte and Joey Harrington as his primary starting QBs.

BOB had talented teams. He was 4 games over .500 in 7 seasons as Texans head coach. That includes an 0-4 stretch that ended his tenure. Before giving the talented players all of the credit (they deserve most of it), the team was 2-14 in the year before he arrived and 9-7 in his first season.

Both Saban and BOB were average head coaches. BOB’s success was tied to his teams but he was not a problem. His worst year, year 3, they went 4-12 as Watson was a rookie and began the season 3-3 before tearing his ACL. Someone named Tom savage finished the year 1-6. While Saban’s Miami teams had players, their QBs were awful. Both coaches get unfairly ridiculed; they were not good but were both normal head coaches.
 

astrozombie

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Saban was 2 games under .500 in two seasons with Gus Ferrotte and Joey Harrington as his primary starting QBs.

BOB had talented teams. He was 4 games over .500 in 7 seasons as Texans head coach. That includes an 0-4 stretch that ended his tenure. Before giving the talented players all of the credit (they deserve most of it), the team was 2-14 in the year before he arrived and 9-7 in his first season.

Both Saban and BOB were average head coaches. BOB’s success was tied to his teams but he was not a problem. His worst year, year 3, they went 4-12 as Watson was a rookie and began the season 3-3 before tearing his ACL. Someone named Tom savage finished the year 1-6. While Saban’s Miami teams had players, their QBs were awful. Both coaches get unfairly ridiculed; they were not good but were both normal head coaches.
Sure. BOB and Saban were normal head coaches saddled with crappy teams. I retract my statement that the BB coaching tree failed to bear much fruit.
 

jk333

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Sure. BOB and Saban were normal head coaches saddled with crappy teams. I retract my statement that the BB coaching tree failed to bear much fruit.
Its interesting that both Saban and O’Brien failed with organizational control. BOB became executive per PR in 2019 and was fired after starting 0-4 in 2020 and Saban, I believe had organizational control the whole time.

I think there are bad head coaches and great head coaches but they're rare and the players are a larger factor. Definitely hard to be sure for football though.
 

sezwho

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Sure. BOB and Saban were normal head coaches saddled with crappy teams. I retract my statement that the BB coaching tree failed to bear much fruit.
And when they fail it’s because they were soldiers not generals. Bill remains immaculate.


https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/bill-belichick-reportedly-told-falcons-his-key-assistants-are-better-soldiers-than-generals#:~:text=Here's the key quote: "[,were better soldiers than generals.”
 

Mystic Merlin

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‘Coaching trees’ might just be a dumb construct given how contingent head coaching success in the NFL is on any number of factors both inside and outside of their control, not to mention how people broadly take for granted the assumption that a coach can take credit for ‘developing’ a coach that worked under them irrespective of any apparent causation. I’m kind of unmoved by it, except insofar as you can glean an actual football philosophy, like Walsh’s West Coast offense or Coryell’s offensive system, from it. The rest seems ultimately illusory to me/mere fodder for casual sports debates, akin to GOAT discussions purporting to assess players in different eras. Perfectly fair game, don’t get me wrong, but I think it’s one of those bottomless rabbit holes that is viewed with less suspicion than is warranted.
 

lexrageorge

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Its interesting that both Saban and O’Brien failed with organizational control. BOB became executive per PR in 2019 and was fired after starting 0-4 in 2020 and Saban, I believe had organizational control the whole time.

I think there are bad head coaches and great head coaches but they're rare and the players are a larger factor. Definitely hard to be sure for football though.
Saban was overruled on getting Drew Brees as QB. He had only partial organizational control.
 

jk333

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Mayo and AVP didn’t look so bad today.

Both deserve a longer look; most coaches are going to have poor games with a roster as bad as this Patriots team. Mayo could be a poor coach and I think specifically his handling of the press could be tweaked but he deserves this full season and very likely next. If they’re not a projected playoff team for 2026 though, I’d get new coaches after next season.

Also, unrelated, @lexrageorge interesting about Brees Saban. Those Miami teams would’ve been something with a QB. (To some extent shown by Pennington)
 

rodderick

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They were well coached on offense today. Most drives sputtered due to bad drops, thought they were creative and had a nice balance of run and pass plays. Wasn't impressed with the defense. But progress, to be sure.
 

ShaneTrot

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If you made a list of the top 10 players who played in today’s Pats-Jets game, at least 8 of them are Jets, and Mayo was able to coach this terrible roster to a win, nicely done.
 

Cellar-Door

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I've thought AVP has been good for a couple weeks, the defense looked better, and whether you agree with the decision he made or not Mayo finally picked a lane on an end of half clock decision which is progress
 

mcpickl

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I've thought AVP has been good for a couple weeks, the defense looked better, and whether you agree with the decision he made or not Mayo finally picked a lane on an end of half clock decision which is progress
This week was a much easier decision. Since the Jets managed to burn all their timeouts before the first quarter ended, the Patriots could guarantee the opponent wouldn't get the ball back just by running it.

Wasn't the case in the two games that everyone complains about. Or the third game that no one complains about, because the same process ended in a Boutte TD.
 

Cellar-Door

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This week was a much easier decision. Since the Jets managed to burn all their timeouts before the first quarter ended, the Patriots could guarantee the opponent wouldn't get the ball back just by running it.

Wasn't the case in the two games that everyone complains about. Or the third game that no one complains about, because the same process ended in a Boutte TD.
Sure it was an easier decision, but the key is he made one.
 

Bergs

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Did Mayo burn a timeout after the questionable "not a TD call" toward the end of the game instead of throwing the challenge flag? That's what it looked like to me, and that is atrocious situational awareness. I was using Red Zone, so if I'm wrong on this, please LMK.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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Did Mayo burn a timeout after the questionable "not a TD call" toward the end of the game instead of throwing the challenge flag? That's what it looked like to me, and that is atrocious situational awareness. I was using Red Zone, so if I'm wrong on this, please LMK.
Wasn't that inside 2 minutes when all challenges have to come from the booth?
 

Saints Rest

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Did Mayo burn a timeout after the questionable "not a TD call" toward the end of the game instead of throwing the challenge flag? That's what it looked like to me, and that is atrocious situational awareness. I was using Red Zone, so if I'm wrong on this, please LMK.
It was under 2:00 so he didn't have any option. I think he called a TO in the hopes that NY might review it, but he couldn't challenge.
 

cshea

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Wasn’t perfect but kudos to Mayo and the staff. Shitshow of a week with the soft stuff but the team responded. Won a game with the QB going down early.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Yeah I am in agreement here with both of you. I think Cover-3 would also work... another guy in the box to help stop the run too.

...

Yes but I think they would be better off in more single high situations, more man coverage, and go higher risk higher reward. Blitz more too.
Good call on this one (per usual).

Lazar
In the first matchup in the Meadowlands, the Patriots played 40% of the passing downs in a split-safety coverage with seven drop-backs in cover two. Against those split-safety coverages, Rodgers lit up the Pats defense by going 11-for-13 or 115 yards (8.8 avg.). He also killed New England on extended drop-backs by going 4-for-5 for 71 yards with four-plus seconds to throw.
Overall, Rodgers has owned split-safety coverages all year. So the Pats played more single-high (12 drop-backs) and cover zero (six) structures this time around. They also did a much better job keeping Rodgers from beating them on extended plays, holding the Jets QB to 31 passing yards on six extended drop-backs (3-of-6) – a huge difference from Week 3.
 

DJnVa

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Mayo is perhaps better than we thought. Kirk Minihane's sources don't exist.
It's almost like making declarative statements of long-term prognosis based on week-to-week results doesn't really make any sense.
 

cshea

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I'm interested to see how the game goes this week. Mayo and staff had a nice win yesterday which will lower the noise level for a few days. Was it a one off blip with a helping of Jets ineptitude or can they build on it? Even if Brissett is the QB, the Titans are beatable. If they are going to progress and build something this is a game they should be able to win. I know similar stuff was said before the Jacksonville game but Jacksonville has real talent. The Titans are much closer to the Pats in that regard and the opposing QB is either Will Levis or Mason Rudolph, not Trevor Lawrence.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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Not sure what Mayo did to deserve kudos this week. Seems like kind of a neutral week for him. Still some sloppiness the team needs to clean up, idiotic PI on Elliss, Gibson fumble, drops galore, run D in the first half, missed blocking assignment on the tipped punt. Blame the position coaches I guess, but the team hardly looked like a well oiled machine and the clock management was horrific at times (again).

AVP called a nice game, he deserves some credit.

Mayo letting his WR chirp all week and then put forward a horrendous effort catching the ball is concerning. Him saying publicly he didn’t realize Maye was concussed was kind of a bad look too.

I guess it’s an improvement from total embarrassment the past few weeks as far as his coaching goes but it’s a bridge (way way) too far to suggest he’s improving.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Mayo was right about at least part of the team being soft. The WR corps is literally afraid to go over the middle or be physical, and showed it by dropping 5 highly catchable balls. The very definition of soft in an NFL sense.
 

joe dokes

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Not sure what Mayo did to deserve kudos this week. Seems like kind of a neutral week for him. Still some sloppiness the team needs to clean up, idiotic PI on Elliss, Gibson fumble, drops galore, run D in the first half, missed blocking assignment on the tipped punt. Blame the position coaches I guess, but the team hardly looked like a well oiled machine and the clock management was horrific at times (again).

AVP called a nice game, he deserves some credit.

Mayo letting his WR chirp all week and then put forward a horrendous effort catching the ball is concerning. Him saying publicly he didn’t realize Maye was concussed was kind of a bad look too.

I guess it’s an improvement from total embarrassment the past few weeks as far as his coaching goes but it’s a bridge (way way) too far to suggest he’s improving.
The team, with only 1 win, few good players, and on a losing streak with the hotshot rookie QB out, played hard for him. That says more to me than just about anything else.

To be fair, I generally blame most shitty play, like drops, fumbles and PI, on players making those plays. Im not savvy enough to analyze the schemes that may lead toward blocking or coverage fuckups, as opposed to the players just fucking up.
 

8slim

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Not sure what Mayo did to deserve kudos this week. Seems like kind of a neutral week for him. Still some sloppiness the team needs to clean up, idiotic PI on Elliss, Gibson fumble, drops galore, run D in the first half, missed blocking assignment on the tipped punt. Blame the position coaches I guess, but the team hardly looked like a well oiled machine and the clock management was horrific at times (again).

AVP called a nice game, he deserves some credit.

Mayo letting his WR chirp all week and then put forward a horrendous effort catching the ball is concerning. Him saying publicly he didn’t realize Maye was concussed was kind of a bad look too.

I guess it’s an improvement from total embarrassment the past few weeks as far as his coaching goes but it’s a bridge (way way) too far to suggest he’s improving.
Almost everything you mentioned in your first paragraph is on the players not Mayo. He doesn’t control how a DB defends a receiver or if someone can’t catch a ball. Put the blame on our GM for assembling an awful roster.

They won a game against a terrible team. That’s a good thing. No one is saying Mayo is on his way to being a great coach.

It’s OK to acknowledge a smidgen of success, however fleeting.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Look, no one thinks Mayo is incompetent more than I do, yet it was obvious that after his calling out of the team, they responded with a strong game and total effort against a fierce division rival while missing Uche and losing Maye mid-game. Mayo has many, many flaws, but he did get a really strong effort and response from his team on Sunday and deserves credit for that.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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Almost everything you mentioned in your first paragraph is on the players not Mayo. He doesn’t control how a DB defends a receiver or if someone can’t catch a ball. Put the blame on our GM for assembling an awful roster.

They won a game against a terrible team. That’s a good thing. No one is saying Mayo is on his way to being a great coach.

It’s OK to acknowledge a smidgen of success, however fleeting.
Coaches don’t get blamed for players with terrible and sloppy fundamentals? Interesting perspextive

so if the performance of the players isn’t something Mayo should get any credit or blame for, what exactly are we saying he did well?

The players play “hard” and Mayo gets credit? WR play soft and unfocused but that’s on them and nothing to do with Mayo?

What in game strategy did Mayo as coach excel at if we’re removing him entirely from the performance of his team? He doesn’t even call plays.
 

8slim

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Coaches don’t get blamed for players with terrible and sloppy fundamentals? Interesting perspextive

so if the performance of the players isn’t something Mayo should get any credit or blame for, what exactly are we saying he did well?

The players play “hard” and Mayo gets credit? WR play soft and unfocused but that’s on them and nothing to do with Mayo?

What in game strategy did Mayo as coach excel at if we’re removing him entirely from the performance of his team? He doesn’t even call plays.
You're the one who's not giving Mayo any credit for winning a game. The team made several big defensive stops, scored on 3 of their 5 second half possessions with Maye out, and you're wondering why Mayo gets "kudos" because the receivers dropped some balls and there was some "sloppiness".

What precisely does he need to do for you to give him a kudo? Cure a disease?

It's OK to give someone a smidgen of credit for a win. It'll make you feel better. Try it.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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Look, no one thinks Mayo is incompetent more than I do, yet it was obvious that after his calling out of the team, they responded with a strong game and total effort against a fierce division rival while missing Uche and losing Maye mid-game. Mayo has many, many flaws, but he did get a really strong effort and response from his team on Sunday and deserves credit for that.
strong game against a fierce division rival? Or mediocre game against incompetent division rival?

it’s great the Pats won and a couple players had nice games, but I’m failing to see what Mayo did here to deserve any credit. Against any non-dysfunctional opponent, the team’s sloppy performance would have gotten them blown out.

The team “responded well” and “played hard” seems to be the things people are pointing to in propping up Mayo’s performance here but I see WR who were dropping passes, sloppy penalties, another soft fumble by a RB, shaky run D early on.

So they didn’t get blown off the LOS for an entire quarter like they did against Jacksonville. Ok great. I didn’t see anything fundamentally different this week than in 3-4 of the losses they’ve had except Maye kept them moving a bit early on.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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You're the one who's not giving Mayo any credit for winning a game. The team made several big defensive stops, scored on 3 of their 5 second half possessions with Maye out, and you're wondering why Mayo gets "kudos" because the receivers dropped some balls and there was some "sloppiness".

What precisely does he need to do for you to give him a kudo?
The argument put forth in this thread is that saying Mayo shouldn’t be blamed for the drops, fumble, penalty etc should therefore mean he doesn’t get credit for the team making plays. Shouldn’t that go to the players or at least AVP and Covington?

If the team’s sloppiness isn’t something to pin on Mayo, why on earth would we give him credit for the success on offense?

WR look sloppy and unfocused - not Mayo

WR catch a ball - Mayo did well

is that how it works?
 

8slim

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The argument put forth in this thread is that saying Mayo shouldn’t be blamed for the drops, fumble, penalty etc should therefore mean he doesn’t get credit for the team making plays. Shouldn’t that go to the players or at least AVP and Covington?

If the team’s sloppiness isn’t something to pin on Mayo, why on earth would we give him credit for the success on offense?

WR look sloppy and unfocused - not Mayo

WR catch a ball - Mayo did well

is that how it works?
This is silly. We're talking about the game in total. The body of work, which includes the practice and prep leading into it.

You're suggesting that despite the win, because Boutte dropped a pass, Mayo gets no credit for having his team prepared to play on both sides of the ball and gutting out a win against a team with substantially more talent.

You're saying it was Bill Belicheck's fault that Wes Welker dropped a pass in the Super Bowl that could have secured a win. Because dropped passes are the direct fault of a head coach. Bill did a shit job that day because Wes dropped the pass.