Hold the Mayo? Evaluating Patriots coaching.

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Cellar-Door

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Is Maye good enough to overcome this shit show on the coaching staff? I hope so.
Honestly no. Really talented QBs make up for a lot, but long term if you have a really bad HC you lose. The hope is either they move on for Mayo or he somehow takes a huge jump as a coach.... I'm doubtful on both,.
 

Euclis20

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Is Maye good enough to overcome this shit show on the coaching staff? I hope so.
No QB in history is good enough to overcome a bad offensive line, AND bad skill players, AND poor coaching. It's a bad team with a handful of exceptions (thankfully Maye looks like one of them), led by a coaching staff that's not exactly making chicken soup out of chicken shit.
 

Ed Hillel

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No QB in history is good enough to overcome a bad offensive line, AND bad skill players, AND poor coaching. It's a bad team with a handful of exceptions (thankfully Maye looks like one of them), led by a coaching staff that's not exactly making chicken soup out of chicken shit.
I think the line of thought is if the Pats go out and have a good offseason/draft, will Maye forever be hindered and never be able to get over the hump because the coaching is so bad. One can easily see Maye and a decent/good draft with a free agency splurge getting this team stuck forever in the 8-11 win train if Mayo is able to get carried each year by Maye.
 
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Does AVP report directly to Wolf?
Perhaps you should re-read the part where I said “direct blame”

You can give Mayo blame for anything coaching related. Failures in blocking on special teams are his fault as much as bad play calls. But the post I responded to seemed to imply Mayo had something to do with those playcalls and I can’t imagine he has any meaningful input on them.
 

DeadlySplitter

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To be honest I thought this thread was an overreaction in the early going,. But now that we had a game where Maye was basically brilliant, a gigantic advantage in today's game, but they still resoundingly lost (it was lucky to be only a one possession difference) - this is the first time I worry this staff would waste Maye badly (and also potentially Wolf / whoever else is deciding on personnel / draft, my concerns are not quelled there at all).

So I guess I've lost faith. Maybe Bill's cowardice on punts late in his tenure is an organizational-wide rot problem, too.
 

Cellar-Door

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To be honest I thought this thread was an overreaction in the early going,. But now that we had a game where Maye was basically brilliant, a gigantic advantage in today's game, but they still resoundingly lost (it was lucky to be only a one possession difference) - this is the first time I worry this staff would waste Maye badly (and also potentially Wolf / whoever else is deciding on personnel / draft, my concerns are not quelled there at all).

So I guess I've lost faith. Maybe Bill's cowardice on punts late in his tenure is an organizational-wide rot problem, too.
The thing was, there was a lot of overreaction early (calls to fire him after like 3 weeks) but also a lot of legitimate causes for concern being discussed. The worry now is.... we're talking today about the exact same thing we talked about on page 3 or 4. It makes sense to give a coach at least a year to see what he has, and let him learn from mistakes and improve. But Mayo keeps making the same mistakes time and again, and every post-game conference someone asks him a legit question like.... "Hey why did you make those incredibly conservative decisions that win probability indicates costs your team significant expected win probability" and his answer is "Whatever call I make people will be mad so I just did what I wanted"..... that to me is a coach who not only isn't learning, it's a coach who legitimately thinks he isn't making mistakes.Those guys stink, they always stink and they cap out as mediocre college coaches.
 

ragnarok725

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It's hard for me to square the results of this season thus far with the rancor towards the coaching in this thread.

This is a squad that came into the season with bottom 5 talent and has had below average injury luck in a few key areas to make matters worse. If you asked me what my optimistic goals for the season would be, they'd be essentially this:
  1. We ease Maye into the NFL, hopefully see some flashes, hopefully see some improvement. Give us something to dream on.
  2. We see some young talent (Gonzalez, White etc.) show out and build experience.
  3. The coaching staff keeps the locker room together and positions some younger guys as leaders, turning culture around.
  4. We lose plenty of games to continue restocking talent around Maye.
Nowhere on that list do I care about optimizing in game decision making. I don't believe past performance is necessarily indicative of future strategy when it comes to in game decision making. In fact, stealing a win here or there because you calibrated a perfect close game win percentage is not ideal given whether the team is at.

Sure, as a fan, I want them to win. And a "culture of winning" is not nothing, even though I think it's way overblown. But overall, I think this team is delivering exactly what I hoped for out of this season. It's hard to know exactly how tightly held any of the beliefs about in game strategy are, or what the vibes in the locker room truly are, but I'm happy with the results thus far.
 

Cellar-Door

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It's hard for me to square the results of this season thus far with the rancor towards the coaching in this thread.

This is a squad that came into the season with bottom 5 talent and has had below average injury luck in a few key areas to make matters worse. If you asked me what my optimistic goals for the season would be, they'd be essentially this:
  1. We ease Maye into the NFL, hopefully see some flashes, hopefully see some improvement. Give us something to dream on.
  2. We see some young talent (Gonzalez, White etc.) show out and build experience.
  3. The coaching staff keeps the locker room together and positions some younger guys as leaders, turning culture around.
  4. We lose plenty of games to continue restocking talent around Maye.
Nowhere on that list do I care about optimizing in game decision making. I don't believe past performance is necessarily indicative of future strategy when it comes to in game decision making. In fact, stealing a win here or there because you calibrated a perfect close game win percentage is not ideal given whether the team is at.

Sure, as a fan, I want them to win. And a "culture of winning" is not nothing, even though I think it's way overblown. But overall, I think this team is delivering exactly what I hoped for out of this season. It's hard to know exactly how tightly held any of the beliefs about in game strategy are, or what the vibes in the locker room truly are, but I'm happy with the results thus far.
I don't even get this.... you don't care if your coach is bad at a major part of his job and doesn't get better? And why would you think that if a guy does something over and over it ISN'T indicative of what he will do in the future?

One of the things this year should definitely be about is determining if Mayo is the guy who can be a good enough head coach to compete with Maye going forward. Him failing over and over is important because it's an indication that he may not be a good coach, and many a great QB has had failures because they had a bad head coach.
 

mwonow

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The thing was, there was a lot of overreaction early (calls to fire him after like 3 weeks) but also a lot of legitimate causes for concern being discussed. The worry now is.... we're talking today about the exact same thing we talked about on page 3 or 4. It makes sense to give a coach at least a year to see what he has, and let him learn from mistakes and improve. But Mayo keeps making the same mistakes time and again, and every post-game conference someone asks him a legit question like.... "Hey why did you make those incredibly conservative decisions that win probability indicates costs your team significant expected win probability" and his answer is "Whatever call I make people will be mad so I just did what I wanted"..... that to me is a coach who not only isn't learning, it's a coach who legitimately thinks he isn't making mistakes.Those guys stink, they always stink and they cap out as mediocre college coaches.
Why does this remind me of Jimy one-M?
 

Toe Nash

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The 4th down and going for two decisions are something that Belichick was generally sub optimal at. It didn't matter as much as it could have because the offense was always good and Brady would do the right thing with the ball, but if he had made those calls like Dan Campbell I'm pretty sure they would have scored a few more points. It makes sense given his "upbringing" as a defensive coach but it was always frustrating. I wonder if Mayo more or less learned from BB on that.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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The 4th down and going for two decisions are something that Belichick was generally sub optimal at. It didn't matter as much as it could have because the offense was always good and Brady would do the right thing with the ball, but if he had made those calls like Dan Campbell I'm pretty sure they would have scored a few more points. It makes sense given his "upbringing" as a defensive coach but it was always frustrating. I wonder if Mayo more or less learned from BB on that.
BB did not get ultra-conservative with his playcalling until Mac was his QB. For the vast majority of his career here he was at the very cutting edge of those decisions.
 
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BB did not get ultra-conservative with his playcalling until Mac was his QB. For the vast majority of his career here he was at the very cutting edge of those decisions.
yeah it’s weird how that’s been accepted as “the book” on BB. Have people forgotten 4th and 2?

His decisions did skew a bit more conservatively the last few years but I think that was due to lack in faith in the offense as opposed to all of a sudden thinking the conservative play was the “right” play
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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yeah it’s weird how that’s been accepted as “the book” on BB. Have people forgotten 4th and 2?

His decisions did skew a bit more conservatively the last few years but I think that was due to lack in faith in the offense as opposed to all of a sudden thinking the conservative play was the “right” play
I mean, it was Mac. He sucked. BB knew it before anyone. So he tried hard to keep the game results out of Mac's hands as much as possible.
 

Toe Nash

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BB did not get ultra-conservative with his playcalling until Mac was his QB. For the vast majority of his career here he was at the very cutting edge of those decisions.
I don't agree, he would frequently punt on 4th and shortish when he had amazing offenses. It wasn't too much different from the rest of the league at the time but I stand by my post. 4th and 2 sticks out because it was out of character. Campbell goes for that every time.
 

ragnarok725

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I don't even get this.... you don't care if your coach is bad at a major part of his job and doesn't get better? And why would you think that if a guy does something over and over it ISN'T indicative of what he will do in the future?

One of the things this year should definitely be about is determining if Mayo is the guy who can be a good enough head coach to compete with Maye going forward. Him failing over and over is important because it's an indication that he may not be a good coach, and many a great QB has had failures because they had a bad head coach.
In game decision making in the context of a developmental season with a young team and a new coach is very different from the context of contending. It's not hard to read a win probability chat or hire someone to do it for you. I don't believe Mayo making conservative decisions now means that's who he will be as a coach forever. This isn't some physical talent skill set, it's a philosophy and data thing. I believe it can, and likely will change.

I'll also say that the in game decision making has very little to do with the important parts of Mayo's job in a season like this. He needs to shift culture from two decades of Belichick while developing a rookie QB and a young talent-deficient team. It means progressing despite knowing you're going to lose a bunch of games. That's about locker room stuff, player development, and game planning. Those are harder to evaluate from the outside but the indicators for them have been decent thus far.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Mayo has been making the same mistakes again and again and again. There has been zero change or improvement.

He doesn't need to shift culture, he needs to win some fucking games and yet his coaching decisions are in direct opposition to that goal. It's no lie to say his decisions today may have cost the team 12 points, in a game they lost by 6.

He's an abomination in the sight of the Lord.
 

Cellar-Door

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In game decision making in the context of a developmental season with a young team and a new coach is very different from the context of contending. It's not hard to read a win probability chat or hire someone to do it for you. I don't believe Mayo making conservative decisions now means that's who he will be as a coach forever. This isn't some physical talent skill set, it's a philosophy and data thing. I believe it can, and likely will change.

I'll also say that the in game decision making has very little to do with the important parts of Mayo's job in a season like this. He needs to shift culture from two decades of Belichick while developing a rookie QB and a young talent-deficient team. It means progressing despite knowing you're going to lose a bunch of games. That's about locker room stuff, player development, and game planning. Those are harder to evaluate from the outside but the indicators for them have been decent thus far.
Yeah, see I think he's egregiously bad at all the in-game stuff and that matters, especially for a guy who doesn't call plays or design schemes.... being a great cheerleader is not a top 2. If he were being insanely aggressive to set a tone... sure, but he's not, he's pissing down his leg, and most importantly... he does not ever seem to have a plan. Other concerns are the lack of adjustments in game. etc.

I get the idea that he's good for vibes (game planning on the side of the ball he touches most has been pretty bad, as seen today) but that is not enough in the NFL. If he just struggled with one of the things we can see and judge... sure, but he's been bad all year at all of it... timeouts, challenges, FG/Punt/Go for it decisions.... and maybe most important of all.... preparation and decisiveness.

"The team hasn't quit" is not enough to say you aren't a bad coach... it's just enough that you don't 100% need to be fired immediately. Mayo should get the year, but if he doesn't show improvement... you should move on because going into next year with a guy who was already woefully underqualified and who is not showing the ability to learn on the job is just wasting a season of Drake Maye
 

Cellar-Door

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So one other thing about Mayo decisions and culture.....
Mayo loved to point to Dan Campbell when talkign about building culture, and teams that struggled early under rookie coaches....
A big part of building the culture there was that Dan Campbell built an identity by being VERY aggressive, he was always willing to go for it, he showed his team not only that he was coaching to win, but also that he had confidence in them, confidence that his offense could get the yards, confidence that if they missed his D would get the stop. The whole identity of his teams was they were playing to win, and they weren't scared of any situation.....

Mayo coaches scared, and he coaches not to get blown out rather than to win. It's the opposite of Campbell. He is saying "I don't trust you guys to make plays" and "I think you can't get the stop unless I get you 20 yards of field position". It doesn't build the kind of culture you want, it especially doesn't when you go into the post-game and deflect.
 

McBride11

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I don't agree, he would frequently punt on 4th and shortish when he had amazing offenses. It wasn't too much different from the rest of the league at the time but I stand by my post. 4th and 2 sticks out because it was out of character. Campbell goes for that every time.
Heck he won his first SB when he let basically a rookie drive for a game winning FG when even Madden was calling to play for OT.
He let the Seahawks line up for a game winning play without taking a TO. A conservative coach takes a TO there.
 

Cellar-Door

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Heck he won his first SB when he let basically a rookie drive for a game winning FG when even Madden was calling to play for OT.
He let the Seahawks line up for a game winning play without taking a TO. A conservative coach takes a TO there.
Bill was one of the least conservative coaches early in his career, then one of the most late career, but I don't think he actually changed much, it's that the league figured out he was right, then moved past him
 

Curt S Loew

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Mayo coaches scared
I really think it's a personality trait with him that's not gonna change.

He's also very defensive in his commentary and definitely listens to the noise. His interviews always contain things like "I know you guys think we're idiots" or "I know you think we don't prepare for things"

He started off poorly with the "Burn some Cash" and it's downhill ever since.

If you can't tune out the criticism and focus, you're not gonna be around long.
 

Ed Hillel

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BB did not get ultra-conservative with his playcalling until Mac was his QB. For the vast majority of his career here he was at the very cutting edge of those decisions.
He changed before that, probably around 2018 or so.

Regardless, even with Mac he had gotten too conservative, and if there was a single reason I didn’t mind seeing BB go, it was that. Now the new coach is as bad, if not worse. Get with the program, Jerod, it’s 2024 and you aren‘t a Boomer.
 

lars10

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Mayo has been making the same mistakes again and again and again. There has been zero change or improvement.

He doesn't need to shift culture, he needs to win some fucking games and yet his coaching decisions are in direct opposition to that goal. It's no lie to say his decisions today may have cost the team 12 points, in a game they lost by 6.

He's an abomination in the sight of the Lord.
They'd won two of their last three.. and were in it today. Not that I don't agree with some of your complaints about Mayo.. I would say though that Maye has improved over the past few weeks and the Rams are not nearly as bad as their record.. this is one of the few games they've had both Kupp and Nakua... which made blitzing Stafford make less sense... but at least the Pats were in it.
 

kieckeredinthehead

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Purely from an entertainment perspective, the offensive decision making sucks. Any time you have a coin flip play between going for more points or less points, why not just go for more points? The game today was actually pretty good, Pats were always within range. The thing that would've made it more exciting was if they'd tried to kick the field goal instead of punt, and go for it on 4th and goal, and go for 2 instead of (flub) the PAT. What's the worst that could happen, they still lose? I just don't see the downside in a season where losses are inevitable. I'm guessing the players would be stoked, too. Give them a chance to make some winning plays.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Maye looks like a legit elite QB, and the ultimate worry is this turns into a Staley-Herbert scenario. That said, the chargers got a real coach and look great, so i dont worry about it breaking maye
 

8slim

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I really think it's a personality trait with him that's not gonna change.

He's also very defensive in his commentary and definitely listens to the noise. His interviews always contain things like "I know you guys think we're idiots" or "I know you think we don't prepare for things"

He started off poorly with the "Burn some Cash" and it's downhill ever since.

If you can't tune out the criticism and focus, you're not gonna be around long.
Agreed. Maybe this shouldn’t bother me, but it does. I really wish Mayo would stop addressing the criticism he gets.

It really seems like he’s leaned into being the “anti Bill” and I find it pretty stupid and counterproductive.
 

NomarsFool

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Maybe his goal is just to beat the spread rather than win the game? Asking for a friend…

I did think it was pretty funny to talk about winning the time of possession game. You know, it is actually pretty easy to “win” time of possession by just giving up big plays on defense to get them off the field after the other team scores in a minute or two. Success!
 

Al Zarilla

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Maye looks like a legit elite QB, and the ultimate worry is this turns into a Staley-Herbert scenario. That said, the chargers got a real coach and look great, so i dont worry about it breaking maye
Besides showing a lot of promise, Maye seems to have a great attitude and doesn’t complain. I remember Peyton refusing to leave the field when Dungy wanted to punt and Peyton didn’t. Of course, Peyton was a lot more experienced at the time. At some point with the coaches’ decisions and ineptitude of some of his teammates I almost expect Maye to throw his hands up in the air in disgust. Hasn’t happened yet that I’ve seen.
 

Garshaparra

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Yeah, I must've been watching a different game. Never thought the Patriots were in control.
Yeesh, that's pretty wild. The 2nd half lead off with the cover 0 disaster and ensuing TD, putting the Pats behind the 8 ball for the rest of the game. The Rams ran it pretty easily on them once they had that big lead as well, getting the final points they needed with 3 long runs, 1 scramble and 2 long passes, the defense not showing any ability to stop LAR. Maybe Mayo can only remember the 4th quarter, where the defense stiffened against obvious runs to attempt to eat clock already up 28-13.
 

Justthetippett

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Besides showing a lot of promise, Maye seems to have a great attitude and doesn’t complain. I remember Peyton refusing to leave the field when Dungy wanted to punt and Peyton didn’t. Of course, Peyton was a lot more experienced at the time. At some point with the coaches’ decisions and ineptitude of some of his teammates I almost expect Maye to throw his hands up in the air in disgust. Hasn’t happened yet that I’ve seen.
He doesn't seem wired that way, which is awesome. I'm sure there are hard conversations happening behind closed doors. That's how it should happen. Eventually we'll see him taking charge more on the field, but I don't think it will be counterproductive. He seems to genuinely want to work within the structure of the team and figure things out.
 

rodderick

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Yeah, I must've been watching a different game. Never thought the Patriots were in control.
Same here. It felt like one of those games that you're taken by absolute surprise when they have the ball with a shot to win it at the end. Thorough domination from the end of the first quarter on.
 

BigJimEd

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Article questioning the decision not to have Gonzalez shadow Kupp or Nacua.

But the presence of a lockdown corner like Gonzalez at least offered New England the opportunity to negate one of the Rams’ skilled pass-catchers.

Sure enough, both Kupp and Nacua didn’t do much damage when matched up against Gonzalez.

Against Kupp, Gonzalez allowed two catches off of four targets for just nine total yards. Against Nacua? Gonzalez gave up one catch for 10 total yards.

The only issue for Gonzalez and the Patriots? Those one-on-one matchups between the corner and the Rams’ top offensive weapons were few and far between on Sunday.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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The weak Boston media probably won’t even call him out on his softness as a coach either.
You already know the answer to that. It’s all a bunch of guys on the beat that are afraid of losing access. Will McDonough ain’t walking through that door.

The Heralds lede is opting to target someone else:

FOXBORO — For the second time in three weeks, a Patriots comeback attempt ended on a Drake Maye interception.
91954
 

8slim

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Mike Reiss on 98.5 just now said one can defend each of the 4 controversial decisions that Mayo made but noted (a) they all had subsequent results that hurt the Pats, and (b) the biggest issue was the defensive scheme decision, particularly the all-out blitz after halftime that led to the 69 yard TD.
 

rodderick

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Mike Reiss on 98.5 just now said one can defend each of the 4 controversial decisions that Mayo made but noted (a) they all had subsequent results that hurt the Pats, and (b) the biggest issue was the defensive scheme decision, particularly the all-out blitz after halftime that led to the 69 yard TD.
Stafford ate up the blitz the whole first half and they immediately came out of the gate sending everyone to start the second. Just mind bogglingly stupid.
 

Ed Hillel

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Article questioning the decision not to have Gonzalez shadow Kupp or Nacua.
I was complaining a out this in the game thread. The idea you barely had Gonzalez covering either of those two guys is really crazy. The defensive coaching is abysmal, and the Head Coach is supposed to have a pretty good idea of what he’s doing in that department.

Plus, they blitzed all game against a Godly QB against the blitz. Idiots.
 

8slim

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Stafford ate up the blitz the whole first half and they immediately came out of the gate sending everyone to start the second. Just mind bogglingly stupid.
Yup. I agree with Reiss that the defensive scheme yesterday was farrrr more concerning than any one decision to punt/kick/go for it. Coaches can improve the latter with time, but the former showed complete over-arching stupidity.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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The blitzing was kind of understandable. They couldn't get any pressure, so they tried something. Failed miserably, but tried.
 

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FWIW, I heard on the Athletic Football pod recently that Stafford has uncharacteristically struggled against pressure looks this season, which could at least justify having that as part of the game plan. (Although some consideration should have been given to the fact that those struggles occurred before they got two of their starting linemen back from injury as they did last week, and while they were missing Puka and Cupp at times.) But to double down after halftime is inexcusable, since they had the evidence of the first half to show it wasn't working. That said, the game effectively ended with us down 6 with the ball in Maye's hands with a chance to drive the field and win the game. I think that's the best we could hope for given the disparity in talent between the teams.
 

Manzivino

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I was complaining a out this in the game thread. The idea you barely had Gonzalez covering either of those two guys is really crazy. The defensive coaching is abysmal, and the Head Coach is supposed to have a pretty good idea of what he’s doing in that department.

Plus, they blitzed all game against a Godly QB against the blitz. Idiots.
Chad Graff had an article on The Athletic about how the Pats assigned Gonzalez to a side of the field instead of a receiver and the Rams figured it out after two drives and just started motioning Kupp and Puka to the other side. Pats coaching staff just doesn’t make in-game adjustments.
 

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Circling back on the BB aggressiveness discussion, he went for 4th and 1 from their own 44 yard line on the opening drive of the 2003 AFCCG.
 
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