Hold the Mayo? Evaluating Patriots coaching.

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Apr 24, 2019
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One thing that obscures things a bit is that the 2023 D went up against a lot of shit/back-up QBs. That made up for a lot of poor drafting/personnel acquisition on that side of the ball.
 

Cellar-Door

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One thing that obscures things a bit is that the 2023 D went up against a lot of shit/back-up QBs. That made up for a lot of poor drafting/personnel acquisition on that side of the ball.
Meh.. They were an excellently coached defense that was disciplined and played hard. You don't get top 10 defenses in DVOA because you played some backup QBs.. So did a lot of the league. And their last 6 games where they finished strong included Mahomes, Allen and Herbert.
 
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Well, obviously, yes, BB made a massive difference too, but going up against a slate of lower-tier QBs is going to make a defense look better than it is. Look at this, it's ridiculous:

Patrick Mahomes 300+ yards, 3 TDs
Jalen Hurts quiet-ish opening night game
Zach Wilson
Dak played well
Derek Carr
Jimmy G/Hoyer
Tua went off on the D in one game, did only ok 249 yards 1 TD, 1 INT
Josh Allen, D Played well in one game, Allen put up good numbers in the loss to NE
Russell Wilson 25-37 238, 2 TD
Mitch Trubisky
Trevor Simien
Tommy DeVito
Gardner Minshew
Sam Howell
 

Mystic Merlin

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And they’re nonetheless far shittier this year individually and collectively no matter how generously you adjust for contextual factors.

I don’t think what you’re pointing out moves the needle on the larger point.
 

Cellar-Door

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Well, obviously, yes, BB made a massive difference too, but going up against a slate of lower-tier QBs is going to make a defense look better than it is. Look at this, it's ridiculous:

Patrick Mahomes 300+ yards, 3 TDs
Jalen Hurts quiet-ish opening night game
Zach Wilson
Dak played well
Derek Carr
Jimmy G/Hoyer
Tua went off on the D in one game, did only ok 249 yards 1 TD, 1 INT
Josh Allen, D Played well in one game, Allen put up good numbers in the loss to NE
Russell Wilson 25-37 238, 2 TD
Mitch Trubisky
Trevor Simien
Tommy DeVito
Gardner Minshew
Sam Howell
DVOA is adjusting for much or all of that BTW one reason it is better than points or similar raw stats. The defense was legit good last year. It is legit bad this year.
 

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Two things can be true:

1) BB was done here and his time had run out. He needed to go.
2) Mayo was not the right hire.

Just because Mayo isn't the guy doesn't mean we shouldn't have let Bill go. When Bill ran out of good officers to run his ship the way he needed them to (and it shouldn't be a debate that this happened) things got sloppy. Without Bill, but with a lot of his 2nd or 3rd generation of people + a handful of others from outside the organization you get the product we have this year. Hiring Mayo was always a massive risk. If Kraft wants to give everyone another year but bring in help because he wants to try and be patient that's fine. But if things don't get significantly better in year 2 he has to be prepared to gut the entire organization from top to bottom and start over.

Post of the day

Re: the debates about the offensive and defensive coaching staffs... AVP is simultaneously like the 17th biggest problem this franchise has right now, and also somebody who is very replaceable.

From whatever point you have a strong GM and a strong HC and staff, you're at the start of a 2-3 rebuild to being a strong playoff team. If the Krafts' clean house this offseason, *and* make a great GM hire, *and* that person brings in a really solid HC, *and* the team then nails the next few years of drafting and free agency... well, we might be ready to make a deep playoff run around the time Maye's rookie contract expires

So, for everyone is is hanging their hopes on us getting a big financial/competitive advantage from having great QB play on a rookie contract... it might easier to tell yourself that's not how this is going to play out. We can still be a strong playoff team, and compete for a championship, and have good things.

We just won't have the deck stacked in our favor. We'll have to win things the old fashioned way, on a more level playing field
 

SMU_Sox

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I agree with you @Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache - We might not get to see them legitimately compete until his rookie deal is almost over or over. It can change quickly. I would compare Jared Goff and Justin Herbert. Herbert and Goff had their head coach year 1 dismissed. Goff got McVay next and was in the Super Bowl in 2 years. Herbert got Brandon Staley and was in the toilet bowl for 3 years. Now Herbert has a good coach again and the Chargers are 9-6 and in the playoff hunt! They don’t have a particularly good roster either. But they work hard and play harder and I have to think that’s a lot to do with the coaching. They’ve added to the roster though, yes. It’s not just one thing 99% of the time.

Point is that if the stars align and you get the right coaching staff and front office in place your fortune can turn quickly. That’s especially true if you have cap space and acquire the right players through the draft, free agency, and trades. Realistically though that’s damn hard to pull off.

My hope is we can split the difference between your take and turning it around right away. Is this the bargaining phase? Can we bargain for a turnaround in year 3-4 of the rookie deal vs after it is over? Shit, I am still in the bargaining stage.

If we keep the current staff and front office people in place though for another year… might be bleak to turn it around by then. So much depends on this offseason from a player acquisition standpoint. Even if Mayo sucks in year 2 and they have to move on from him as long as Wolf or whoever gets the players right it can still happen soonish. Maye is our trump card. Free agents and coaches are going to be drawn to his talent like I am to athletic offensive linemen with thick lower halves, a good center of gravity, and tenacity as run blockers.
 

rodderick

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They have the money and the draft capital to turn it around reasonably quickly if they nail the coaching staff and GM. With each passing day I'm more convinced the current guys aren't going to get it done. The Rams went from dead last in scoring offense in 2016 to first in 2017 by adding McVay, two wide receivers and a great tackle in Whitworth. The turn around doesn't have to be this fast for it to be successful and obviously the 2016 Rams had more pieces in guys like Todd Gurley, but still, if you have the QB in place and a ton of avenues to improve the talent base of the roster, it can be done, as long as the right people are in charge.
 

sezwho

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They have the money and the draft capital to turn it around reasonably quickly if they nail the coaching staff and GM. With each passing day I'm more convinced the current guys aren't going to get it done. The Rams went from dead last in scoring offense in 2016 to first in 2017 by adding McVay, two wide receivers and a great tackle in Whitworth. The turn around doesn't have to be this fast for it to be successful and obviously the 2016 Rams had more pieces in guys like Todd Gurley, but still, if you have the QB in place and a ton of avenues to improve the talent base of the roster, it can be done, as long as the right people are in charge.
I can’t let the DC come back, there’s just no way they can be this bad.

I can’t let Wolf come back. He is the reverse Midas and the skid marks of his reign are all over this roster. Horrible draft picks and unbelievably bad free agent signings: you suck.

I was willing to blame Bill for the roster but they have only gotten worse. Take his car keys before he wrecks a second iteration of this organization. Zero credit for taking Maye, broken clock etc.

I’m still giving Mayo and AVP another year. It’s very possible to me that AVP literally can’t do more with a line and set of WRs who don’t belong in the NFL. Mayo has been rough, the press conference stuff I think is insanely overblown, but I’m not firing my rookie HC after year 1 of rebuild.
 
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jk333

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I mentioned the same concern about continually changing offensive coaches up above. So definitely concerned about that as well.

But I don’t see how you can say that AVP has been “fine.”

By what measure? The team is 30th and 31st in points scored and yards gained.
Last year when Brian Flores had nothing to work with he ran one of the most exotic defenses out there because he knew if he was vanilla and tried to out execute the other team he would lose over and over again. The results weren’t amazing but they were better than what we are watching every week. When you don’t have good players if you want to win you need to be creative with your scheme. We’re basic on defense and basic on offense. If your response is well they don’t have good enough players to be that exotic I would point you back to the Vikings last year. Stop running a conservative, simplistic, and stale (and I mean stale… AVP is living in 2016-2018) offense! For the defense it’s an indictment of the coaching staff that everyone but White and Gonzo (maybe Marcus Jones) who was on the team last year has taken a step back this year. Fundamentals look like garbage too.
I agree the offense is basic but want to ask/push that it’s appropriately basic given:
-no offensive line (overall talent and injury issues)
-no receivers (no talent)
-no continuity, 3 coordinators on the same side of the ball in 3 years
-limited veteran QB for a team that wanted to win low scoring games turned into a team developing a rookie QB with limited offensive players

I’d directly contrast this with the defense where they have spent money and have continuity.

Given the above, I think it makes sense that they’re overly boring on offense. They literally swap (interior mostly) linemen into the starting line from practice squads week over week. Their 2nd round receiver is (sometimes) benched despite lowly competition. They put out fires at multiple positions every week with continuity only from Onwenu and Rham. It also seems reactionary to me and without direction to replace a just hired OC with a boring system after he implements that exact system.

I blame Wolf more than AVP for none of the players on offense (except qb) developing this year into a moderate starter. It’s not great and arguably on AVP that there’s been no progress. If you blame AVP for an outdated system, that’s fair but it’s arguably even more of a Wolf/Mayo indictment that he was hired.

But @dynomite given the players, of course their stats and points scored are bad. I think McVay or Shanahan would struggle with this roster. Given that, I like that they’ve mostly played it safe with boring and predictable offense that has the QB setup well for next year. In support of this, look at DVOA, their offense is scored as BETTER than Cleveland or Tennessee and similar to Las Vegas and Carolina. Now, that’s a bad overall result. Especially having the best QB of those 4. But, their roster is easily as bad as the other 3. And so I think that they’re an offense that will improve with better players. That’s where I’d call the offensive performance fine- DVOA about as expected and growth from Maye given roster limitations.

If they move on from AVP, they need to address the process to hire him. And also how the Defense has been much worse. I wouldn’t do it without also moving on from either Mayo or Wolf also due to that horrible process.
 
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Jimbodandy

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Good summary, and definitely the truth about the brain drain -- I was typing up something similar about how losing Patricia, Flores, McDaniels, Caserio, and Ernie Adams (along with many, many others as @BigJimEd notes above) was clearly a big problem for Bill.

Anyway, I'm not sure what to root for. Mayo doesn't seem like the guy, but what do I know about it? I'm not in the building. I'm not in the meeting rooms. I'm not on the practice field. Heck, I'm not even watching every snap of the season or reviewing the All 22 footage.

Still, I see what we all see: a team that feels directionless, one that seems to be getting worse as the season goes along, and one that offers us almost no hope for the future beyond an outstanding rookie QB.
Yeah I'm kinda here too. Maybe Mayo sucks. Maybe it's rookie jitters and he gets better, but maybe he doesn't. I have no idea, and I frankly don't think that anyone else knows either.

FWIW, it feels like a simplification based on the fact that the world blamed Mac Jones for last year's suck and now needs a new scapegoat. It just feels very much like basically the entire Bruins forum in this thread. Fire the QB, done. Now it's the coach's fault. If football had goaltenders, we'd be blaming him next.

The "it's the same team with a way better WB, why are we just as bad???" mindset. It's not the same team.

I think they are full of shit, the scheme is terrible because it fails to elevate the personnel. This Personnel is not that different than the group from last year that was a top 10 defense under a much better coach. The scheme I guess isn't bad in the sense it is a variant on the same schemes everyone uses, but it lacks the designed pressures and QB confusing play calls that you need. It's an incredibly basic line up and hope you win individual matchups D.... which is barely acceptable with great personnel, and surrender with bad personnel.
This defense is not the same defense as last year. Yes, they extended some of the guys. And while folks are down on Dugger and Peppers, the entire secondary will pretty much always look worse when you trade away your pass rush guys and fire the greatest defensive mind ever.
 

BigJimEd

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the entire secondary will pretty much always look worse when you trade away your pass rush guys and fire the greatest defensive mind ever.
Judon only played in 4 games last year. As you allude to the biggest difference is the coaching and perhaps many had too high of expectations going in. I think many expected a drop off but few expected the D to be near the bottom of the league.
 

Jimbodandy

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Judon only played in 4 games last year. As you allude to the biggest difference is the coaching and perhaps many had too high of expectations going in. I think many expected a drop off but few expected the D to be near the bottom of the league.
Not an expert, and agree that a lot of it is the coaching (i.e., BFB's problem-solving is gone), but the DL struggling to get pressure, set edges, and win at basically anything pass/run at the line is killing us right now. There's no contain and not much threat. QBs and RBs are comfortable AF, and that's making a mediocre secondary and LB/SS group look worse than they were last year. I'm not just talking about sacks. They're losing at just about everything up front. And I honestly think that it's death by a thousand cuts up there, not just "this one guy is gone". Barmore's injury, no Judon, Uche gone (not that he was doing much anyway). The DL is just bad and there's no evil genius to watch a million hours of game film and sprinkle fairy dust on the plan to make the non-Gonzo guys look great.
 

BigJimEd

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Not an expert, and agree that a lot of it is the coaching (i.e., BFB's problem-solving is gone), but the DL struggling to get pressure, set edges, and win at basically anything pass/run at the line is killing us right now. There's no contain and not much threat. QBs and RBs are comfortable AF, and that's making a mediocre secondary and LB/SS group look worse than they were last year. I'm not just talking about sacks. They're losing at just about everything up front. And I honestly think that it's death by a thousand cuts up there, not just "this one guy is gone". Barmore's injury, no Judon, Uche gone (not that he was doing much anyway). The DL is just bad and there's no evil genius to watch a million hours of game film and sprinkle fairy dust on the plan to make the non-Gonzo guys look great.
Yeah, good points. Barmore being out is big. Bentley has been a bigger loss than I expected. "Death by a thousand cuts" seems accurate. Very little has gone right.
 

8slim

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I'll never see the situation as dire as some folks express here. I mean, it's the NFL, a league purposefully designed to have bad teams rise to be at least mediocre within a season or two. It's a league where 44% of teams make the playoffs every year.

I simply don't agree that the franchise will be set back years if they bring back Mayo and Wolf. If they suck again next season then we clean house and try again. A good GM/coach combo can get us to that 9 win/fringe playoff level fairly quickly. It's how this league operates.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I'll never see the situation as dire as some folks express here. I mean, it's the NFL, a league purposefully designed to have bad teams rise to be at least mediocre within a season or two. It's a league where 44% of teams make the playoffs every year.

I simply don't agree that the franchise will be set back years if they bring back Mayo and Wolf. If they suck again next season then we clean house and try again. A good GM/coach combo can get us to that 9 win/fringe playoff level fairly quickly. It's how this league operates.
We seen poorly run teams defy this 44% figure all the time. The Jets have missed the playoffs 14 straight years. The Bengals, Browns, and Raiders were horrible for 20 years straight. Jacksonville has been shit for 15 of the last 17 years. There's no reason to think the Patriots are somehow immune to this type of futility if they continue to make appalling decisions like they've recently made.

If they bring back Mayo and Wolf they will suddenly be staring at 4 consecutive losing seasons.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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Is this the bargaining phase? Can we bargain for a turnaround in year 3-4 of the rookie deal vs after it is over? Shit, I am still in the bargaining stage.
LOL-- FWIW, my understanding of the concept is that we don't move through the stages one after another in sequence, like rest stops off the highway or something. Instead you bounce around in several at once, which gradually shifting your way down the spectrum. (If things go well)

I think I might have been in some combination of anger and depression when I wrote that post :)

It's snowing outside and life looks better this morning. The world is a fundamentally beautiful place, thank God


I simply don't agree that the franchise will be set back years if they bring back Mayo and Wolf
There's no reason to think the Patriots are somehow immune to this type of futility
Can you both be right?

We see through a glass dimly. Wolf (and Highsmith) may be in the process of putting together a cracker-jack scouting/evaluation team that knocks the next few drafts out of the park. Mayo may make a Mazzulla-like level of improvement next season and put doubts to rest.

Or maybe past performance is, in this case, predictive of future results.

The world is sometimes incredible predictable and other times incredibly surprising

We live in hope
 
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Trapaholic

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Its tough because they were in that 44% in the first 2 Mac Jones seasons. They snuck into the playoffs then fell back below .500. The last 2 seasons they have totally bottomed out, and it would take a stellar draft and several free agent signings to even get them back to mediocre. Not saying they can't have an excellent offseason, but we simply have not seen it recently.

Last year was some of the worst quarterback play we have ever seen with Zappe and Mac. They have a much better quarterback now, and are worse record wise and competition wise. There is a lot that needs to break right even to get back to .500 next year.
 
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All fair to suggest and perhaps warranting of moving on but the roster is so bad it’s actually hard to prove.
The OL and WR are major problems clearly. But is the rest of the roster “so bad”?

I don’t know that the talent on D especially is as bad as the results have been.
I'll never see the situation as dire as some folks express here. I mean, it's the NFL, a league purposefully designed to have bad teams rise to be at least mediocre within a season or two. It's a league where 44% of teams make the playoffs every year.

I simply don't agree that the franchise will be set back years if they bring back Mayo and Wolf. If they suck again next season then we clean house and try again. A good GM/coach combo can get us to that 9 win/fringe playoff level fairly quickly. It's how this league operates.
The key point there is a “a good GM/coach combined can get us to that 9 win level”

Recent history is littered with franchises that have failed to get to playoff level for nearly a decade (or have one fluke year and over a decade of sub .500 ball)

In fact, it’s the exception that firing a bad coach/GM will result in the next guy being any good

Look at the Browns post Crennel. 7 coaches before finding Stefanski (who might not even be “the” guy)

the Jets since Ryan (Bowles, Gase, Saleh)

Washington is on coach 5 since Gibbs. I guess maybe Shanahan can be considered a vague success (one playoff appearance between 3 years of double digit losses)

Being consistently mediocre or in the playoff hunt is actually something most coaches and GM’s don’t/can’t accomplish.

They need to can Mayo and Wolf and move on because history suggests the next guys probably won’t be “the” guys.

The 49ers are a good case study. They had Harbaugh and Shanahan. Between them they had the awful single seasons of Tomsula and Kelly. Between Harbaugh and Mariucci they had terrible seasons from Erickson, Nolan, and Singletary.

There’s no reason to keep Mayo and Wolf, the chances that either of those guys is really secretly awesome are tiny. Just move on and keep looking because there’s a very good chance they spend all of Drake Maye’s rookie deal churning through guys
 

BaseballJones

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I agree with adjust the expectations.

I also think Johnny doing worlds better under Mike McDaniel is a strike against Belichick, not a feather in his cap
I'm very late to this discussion (apologies), as I was out of the country, but Jonnu also has two great RBs and two great WRs around him as skill players, plus a really sharp and dynamic offensive mind as HC. All that opens up tons of space for Jonnu, and he has always been a terrific athlete with the ability to make plays. That's what BB saw in him initially, but couldn't make it work with Mac and the lack of other quality skill position players around him. Jonnu wasn't great in Ten and wasn't great in Atlanta either (he was fine in Atlanta, not amazing). Just didn't have the volume. But defenses focus on the electric RBs and WRs in Miami and that allows them to target Jonnu a ton. Already a career high in targets (89...previous high was 70 last year), and his production reflects this increase in targets.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Dugger is having a below replacement level year. He had a bad 2023 when they played him more up top vs in the box and this year their scheme and vision was to… to… repeat the same fit? This is where I would think Wolf and Mayo would have reviewed 2023 and determined that if they want to move to much more 2 high that they shouldn’t re-sign him. He is a box safety in a single high dominant system. This is the kind of mistake Bill didn’t often make. This Is the kind of mistake teams that don’t have a vision and connection between the coaches and the front office make. Think the Lions and KVN or the Cardinals and Reddick.
Paying a guy top of the market money all to have him play 1/3 of his snaps in a role he stinks at.
I've made my feelings about Dugger known, but I think theres two things here:

  1. In fairness to Dugger, I think the injuries sustained by the defense may have more impact on him than anyone else - in particular in his run defense (which has been bad this year). His safety partner (Peppers) has been out most of the year. Barmore, the best defensive lineman we have to gobble up blockers to free up a lighter in box safety, has barely played. Bentley, a downhill linebacker that pulls attention from Dugger, has been out all season. In past years, hes been able to free roam alot more in the box to help make plays, but that isnt the case this season.
  2. I dont think the issue is that Dugger is paid top of market money and is now often being misused. The problem is simply that he was paid top of market money. Paying someone top of market money that is very, very bad at the most important part of his job description - being able to cover in the secondary - was always a really dumb idea. It be like paying a run-stopping defensive end top of market money and then complaining that he doesn't get any sacks. And it isn't like they can just shift him into a box role 100% of the time. There are a LOT of plays that dont require a safety in the box. So the alternative is to have one of the highest paid safeties in the league simply get 30% less snaps because he cant fucking cover anyone. This was ALWAYS going to be the issue with Dugger. I made a thread about not wanting to resign him before he signed, I shit all over the contract when they did sign him, and he's done nothing to dissuade me from the opinion that this was a horrible waste of resources by Wolfe (and one of his bigger blunders so far).
 

8slim

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We seen poorly run teams defy this 44% figure all the time. The Jets have missed the playoffs 14 straight years. The Bengals, Browns, and Raiders were horrible for 20 years straight. Jacksonville has been shit for 15 of the last 17 years. There's no reason to think the Patriots are somehow immune to this type of futility if they continue to make appalling decisions like they've recently made.

If they bring back Mayo and Wolf they will suddenly be staring at 4 consecutive losing seasons.
It's actually incredibly rare for a team to have the kind of playoff drought the Jets are enduring. Aside from the Jets, the longest droughts are the Broncos (8 years), Falcons and Panthers (7 years). Every other team has made the playoffs at least once since 2020.

I'm not suggesting the Pats can't endure a 7+ season playoff drought. I'm saying the notion that if they don't fire Mayo and Wolf right now the franchise is sunk for a decade is silly. Sure, it could be. But honestly, probably not. Most NFL franchises, even the inept ones, make the playoffs every few seasons at worst.

I'm just trying to temper the catastrophizing people love to do around here.
 

dynomite

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Maye's development is all that really matters this year though. We have the worst line talent in the league by a good margin given injuries, etc.
I agree the offense is basic but want to ask/push that it’s appropriately basic given:
-no offensive line (overall talent and injury issues)
-no receivers (no talent)
-no continuity, 3 coordinators on the same side of the ball in 3 years
-limited veteran QB for a team that wanted to win low scoring games turned into a team developing a rookie QB with limited offensive players

I’d directly contrast this with the defense where they have spent money and have continuity.

Given the above, I think it makes sense that they’re overly boring on offense. They literally swap (interior mostly) linemen into the starting line from practice squads week over week. Their 2nd round receiver is (sometimes) benched despite lowly competition. They put out fires at multiple positions every week with continuity only from Onwenu and Rham. It also seems reactionary to me and without direction to replace a just hired OC with a boring system after he implements that exact system.

I blame Wolf more than AVP for none of the players on offense (except qb) developing this year into a moderate starter. It’s not great and arguably on AVP that there’s been no progress. If you blame AVP for an outdated system, that’s fair but it’s arguably even more of a Wolf/Mayo indictment that he was hired.

But @dynomite given the players, of course their stats and points scored are bad. I think McVay or Shanahan would struggle with this roster. Given that, I like that they’ve mostly played it safe with boring and predictable offense that has the QB setup well for next year. In support of this, look at DVOA, their offense is scored as BETTER than Cleveland or Tennessee and similar to Las Vegas and Carolina. Now, that’s a bad overall result. Especially having the best QB of those 4. But, their roster is easily as bad as the other 3. And so I think that they’re an offense that will improve with better players. That’s where I’d call the offensive performance fine- DVOA about as expected and growth from Maye given roster limitations.

If they move on from AVP, they need to address the process to hire him. And also how the Defense has been much worse. I wouldn’t do it without also moving on from either Mayo or Wolf also due to that horrible process.
Right, so this is the counter argument, that the players are so bad that no coach could do better with them. And I think what @SMU_Sox and I (sorry if I'm not accurately summarizing your opinion, SMU) are saying is: are we sure about that? Because:

1) it feels like many good coaches have figured out how to at least not oversee the worst unit in the league when they have had bad personnel, and

2) Maye's rookie year is almost over, and the team needs to start righting the ship quickly.

Here's a 20 minute top notch film breakdown from Kurt Warner of the Patriots offense against the Titans. I hadn't seen it before. And after watching it, I'm even more concerned about AVP.

I don't see a "safe, boring, vanilla" offensive scheme. I see a system that is actively making Maye's life as a young QB harder. I see a number of clean pockets with receivers running hopeless routes that lead them to run into each other's space.

I hear Warner asking many times "What are we doing here?," as in, best case scenario, what was supposed to happen on this play, with no good answer.

Go to 4:05, and watch the play call that bizarrely bunches 3 receivers in an almost impossibly tight window as Warner says: "Look at the spacing here, like this is my concept?... There's no spacing to make this throw" (It doesn't help that one of them slips, but even so)

But my point is: this is the scheme. AVP calls a play asks Maye to throw a perfectly timed corner route against press coverage with his options hopelessly bunched -- Warner's reaction is along the lines of: "To try to throw this off of press coverage and hit a corner route is really hard. So we blame a lot of things, we could say it's good defense, it's just really hard for a young quarterback to play football like this."

At 12:38 when talking about yet another scheme that lead to bunched receivers and Maye being forced to make a perfect throw with perfect timing (which he did), Warner says: "A lot of times the spacing and details aren't what they're looking for to help make it easier on your quarterback."

Now I don't have the Xs and Os acumen to push back on Warner here, so if someone watches this film and comes to a different conclusion, I'm open to hearing it.

And perhaps another pushback here is: "Maybe Warner is using these videos to audition for a job as an NFL QB Coach, so he's being overly critical." I have no idea whether that's true -- although I will say other recent video breakdowns include "Bo Nix Continues to Progress and Impress," "Winston Breathing New Life Into Browns," and "Herbert Playing at High Level."

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjuFGw83XCU&ab_channel=KurtWarnerxQBConfidential
 

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It's actually incredibly rare for a team to have the kind of playoff drought the Jets are enduring. Aside from the Jets, the longest droughts are the Broncos (8 years), Falcons and Panthers (7 years). Every other team has made the playoffs at least once since 2020.

I'm not suggesting the Pats can't endure a 7+ season playoff drought. I'm saying the notion that if they don't fire Mayo and Wolf right now the franchise is sunk for a decade is silly. Sure, it could be. But honestly, probably not. Most NFL franchises, even the inept ones, make the playoffs every few seasons at worst.

I'm just trying to temper the catastrophizing people love to do around here.
Why limit since 2020? The Raiders had losing records and missed the playoffs for 13 straight years. The Browns missed for 17 straight years, from 2003 till 2020. The Jets, obviously, are the Jets.

I am saying there's no reason the Patriots cannot show the type of ineptitude the above mentioned teams have shown. The common denominator for all of them is horrible ownership. And frankly, what Bob Kraft has show us lately as he sundowns is the same type of horrible ownership that Woody Johnson has always shown: hiring cronies based on hunches instead of leading real searches, interfering in football decisions, and leaving inept people in charge.

I see no reason to temper the catastrophizing, because IMO we are already in the midst of it. 3rd straight losing season, each worse than the last. A HC hire without any kind of search at all, based on "vibes." A GM who has butchered his first draft despite high picks in each round. Completely inept DC, bad FA signings, comically awful scheming. And it keeps getting worse each week. There's zero growth from any of the parties involved. With Maye you can see him getting better each week. Would that we could say the same for his coaches.

The Buffalo games this weekend and in week 19 are going to be very, very ugly.
 

Cellar-Door

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Right, so this is the counter argument, that the players are so bad that no coach could do better with them. And I think what @SMU_Sox and I (sorry if I'm not accurately summarizing your opinion, SMU) are saying is: are we sure about that? Because:

1) it feels like many good coaches have figured out how to at least not oversee the worst unit in the league when they have had bad personnel, and

2) Maye's rookie year is almost over, and the team needs to start righting the ship quickly.

Here's a 20 minute top notch film breakdown from Kurt Warner of the Patriots offense against the Titans. I hadn't seen it before. And after watching it, I'm even more concerned about AVP.

I don't see a "safe, boring, vanilla" offensive scheme. I see a system that is actively making Maye's life as a young QB harder. I see a number of clean pockets with receivers running hopeless routes that lead them to run into each other's space.

I hear Warner asking many times "What are we doing here?," as in, best case scenario, what was supposed to happen on this play, with no good answer.

Go to 4:05, and watch the play call that bizarrely bunches 3 receivers in an almost impossibly tight window as Warner says: "Look at the spacing here, like this is my concept?... There's no spacing to make this throw" (It doesn't help that one of them slips, but even so)

But my point is: this is the scheme. AVP calls a play asks Maye to throw a perfectly timed corner route against press coverage with his options hopelessly bunched -- Warner's reaction is along the lines of: "To try to throw this off of press coverage and hit a corner route is really hard. So we blame a lot of things, we could say it's good defense, it's just really hard for a young quarterback to play football like this."

At 12:38 when talking about yet another scheme that lead to bunched receivers and Maye being forced to make a perfect throw with perfect timing (which he did), Warner says: "A lot of times the spacing and details aren't what they're looking for to help make it easier on your quarterback."

Now I don't have the Xs and Os acumen to push back on Warner here, so if someone watches this film and comes to a different conclusion, I'm open to hearing it.

And perhaps another pushback here is: "Maybe Warner is using these videos to audition for a job as an NFL QB Coach, so he's being overly critical." I have no idea whether that's true -- although I will say other recent video breakdowns include "Bo Nix Continues to Progress and Impress," "Winston Breathing New Life Into Browns," and "Herbert Playing at High Level."

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjuFGw83XCU&ab_channel=KurtWarnerxQBConfidential
One thing to note on some of the this.. If you follow the local reporters seems like every week when they ask about plays like this AVP talks about failure to execute (and refuses to to throw a guy under the bus) and then one of the WRs admits he ran the route wrong.

I don't think that this offense is good or special, but I think it does try to always give Maye an easy check down or scramble lane. A lot of the pacing issue seem to be... Guys can't run their routes right now consistently.

If they fire everybody I won't cry for AVP. If they just fire him I think it's an indicator of a poorly run team since I see him as the least of the problems going forward. I think he can be Maye's Greg Roman.. Come in teach him to be an NFL QB, protect him, and then if you need to move on to take the next step when the roster is is ready you do it.

I was originally on the "give this group another year but maybe a new DC or at least senior voice".. I starting to lean towards a full cleaning.. New GM let him pick his HC (preferably an offensive guy) let the HC choose his staff.
 

SMU_Sox

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The spacing has been an issue for 4 years now? 5? 6? It’s bad @dynomite.

What I would say to Warner is, you know more football than I ever will but some of the concepts you are slamming are just wrong or poorly run routes sometimes from 4/5 guys at the same time.

As for the Dugger note, @Kenny F'ing Powers i agree but I would note that when they played a lot more single high he didn’t have to be playing deep. He’s actually a good robber… if you play a lot of single high man or cover 3 he’s a good safety. If you play a lot of 2 high concepts he’s not that guy. All teams play all of these coverages and he will always play each role but the mix of which roles he plays depends on the defensive scheme. That’s all I mean. He’s better on defenses that play less 2 high concepts.
Misread his value, misread the market, misuse of the tag, misuse of the cap.

I like Dugger, but (without seeing the details) this money could have served the team better in a million other ways.
^^ is your first post on it. Well done.

I like the guy but I think this - that’s a lot of money to tie up in a less important position and for a guy who struggles in coverage. But what do I know.
You know more than the average bear…
 

shoosh77

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Judon only played in 4 games last year. As you allude to the biggest difference is the coaching and perhaps many had too high of expectations going in. I think many expected a drop off but few expected the D to be near the bottom of the league.
Judon only 4 games and Gonzo out most the season last year. They’re a poorly run organization at this point with no identity.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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I see no reason to temper the catastrophizing, because IMO we are already in the midst of it.
I think you are correct. I think if they stick with Mayo and Wolf for 2 more years, we'll be up to 5 straight losing seasons. And then you hit the reset button and who knows how many years it will take to be a winning team again. It would take multiple poor hiring cycles to get to 13 seasons, and the odds are unlikely, but becoming more likely with each passing week.

If you hire the right people, you can win quickly. They need to hire the right people.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I think you are correct. I think if they stick with Mayo and Wolf for 2 more years, we'll be up to 5 straight losing seasons. And then you hit the reset button and who knows how many years it will take to be a winning team again. It would take multiple poor hiring cycles to get to 13 seasons, and the odds are unlikely, but becoming more likely with each passing week.

If you hire the right people, you can win quickly. They need to hire the right people.
Craig Calcaterra writes a daily baseball newsletter that I subscribe to, and in it he very often riffs on other sports, poltics, music, etc. He had this to say about Woody Johnson today:

The New York Jets suck. They've sucked for a very long time. I don't pay enough attention to football to be able to give you a detailed breakdown of all of the reasons they suck, but even an outsider like me can tell that it's largely due to franchise-wide dysfunction that starts in the owner's box. It's a tale as old as time, really: a super rich dude who has never had to work for a single thing in his life and who has never been told "no" (a) believes that he is smarter and more competent than he is; and (b) has weaponized his privileged incompetence via a micromanaging style that has doomed the entire enterprise and will continue to doom it for as long as he is in charge.
While Kraft doesn't fall into the "never had to work for anything in his life" category (although marrying into millions certainly helped), I truly do think that the other points made here about Woody now apply to Kraft as well to some extent: that he's not told "no" any longer and firing BB was part of that quest to no longer be told "no," and that his micromanaging has increased over the years (remember the story about refusing to allow BB to trade Mac) and that has provided extremely negative results for the Patriots organization.

Naming Mayo the HC -in-waiting based on "vibes" is very much the act of someone who thinks he is much smarter than he actually is. When you're starting to behave like Family Dollar Woody Johnson, that's a bad sign.
 

dynomite

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One thing to note on some of the this.. If you follow the local reporters seems like every week when they ask about plays like this AVP talks about failure to execute (and refuses to to throw a guy under the bus) and then one of the WRs admits he ran the route wrong.

I don't think that this offense is good or special, but I think it does try to always give Maye an easy check down or scramble lane. A lot of the pacing issue seem to be... Guys can't run their routes right now consistently.

If they fire everybody I won't cry for AVP. If they just fire him I think it's an indicator of a poorly run team since I see him as the least of the problems going forward. I think he can be Maye's Greg Roman.. Come in teach him to be an NFL QB, protect him, and then if you need to move on to take the next step when the roster is is ready you do it.

I was originally on the "give this group another year but maybe a new DC or at least senior voice".. I starting to lean towards a full cleaning.. New GM let him pick his HC (preferably an offensive guy) let the HC choose his staff.
The spacing has been an issue for 4 years now? 5? 6? It’s bad @dynomite.

What I would say to Warner is, you know more football than I ever will but some of the concepts you are slamming are just wrong or poorly run routes sometimes from 4/5 guys at the same time.
These are fair responses, and I will say I agree that AVP -- unlike Mayo, notably -- has handled his media responsibilities professionally and capably. He doesn't attack individual players, he's accountable, and at least once or twice I've heard him admit when something is his fault (not knowing Jones had played some snaps on offense before, which raises othre concerns but at least he was forthright about it).

The ongoing spacing issues, to your point @SMU_Sox, are just baffling and infuriating. And if WRs are still constantly running the wrong routes in December, I'm sorry, that's in part on the OC.

Just look at this tape of him breaking down Bo Nix, and how beautifully the receivers are spaced on many these plays. Time after time after time, Nix has wide open RBs for dump offs, receivers at different levels of the defense, and multiple options on a play. And to his credit, Warner is criticizing Nix on some of these plays for missing a read or letting the game speed up on him -- again, he's a rookie QB, that's to be expected.

Now, of course, the Broncos have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, so I'm not suggesting our results should be the same. But just from a scheme point of view, in terms of what I'm seeing develop on the field before the QB even throws the ball or we account for breakdowns up front? Sure, you can also say "Well, the Broncos have the best o line in the NFL and Cortland Sutton, this isn't apples to apples" -- but beyond Sutton, Marvin Mims? 7th round rookie Davaughn Vele? Old friend Lil'jordan Humphrey? Adam Trautman at TE? Maybe I'm underestimating how good that group is, but they just look like they know where they should be running to and what they should be doing from play to play.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRXh2kvhDi4&ab_channel=KurtWarnerxQBConfidential
 

Dogman

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Craig Calcaterra writes a daily baseball newsletter that I subscribe to, and in it he very often riffs on other sports, poltics, music, etc. He had this to say about Woody Johnson today:



While Kraft doesn't fall into the "never had to work for anything in his life" category (although marrying into millions certainly helped), I truly do think that the other points made here about Woody now apply to Kraft as well to some extent: that he's not told "no" any longer and firing BB was part of that quest to no longer be told "no," and that his micromanaging has increased over the years (remember the story about refusing to allow BB to trade Mac) and that has provided extremely negative results for the Patriots organization.

Naming Mayo the HC -in-waiting based on "vibes" is very much the act of someone who thinks he is much smarter than he actually is. When you're starting to behave like Family Dollar Woody Johnson, that's a bad sign.
I am so happy we are now at the point in your Kraft has an ego because he won't do what I want him to do narrative that he is essentially Woody Johnson. EEI level nonsense. It's going to be a long off season, FA period, and draft when Wolf and Mayo get another year.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I am so happy we are now at the point in your Kraft has an ego because he won't do what I want him to do narrative that he is essentially Woody Johnson. EEI level nonsense. It's going to be a long off season, FA period, and draft when Wolf and Mayo get another year.
Well there's one way Kraft isn't Woody Johnson for sure: Woody's team has a better record this year.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
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Man, in retrospect these comments from Kraft in Mach sure have aged like milk.


"The major decisions in life that I've made, I've gone with my instincts," Kraft said. "Sometimes people don't agree, but I think Eliot has good training, good pedigree. We actually have a good group of young people. We're starting new chapters in our development as we evolve here, and I like the young people doing this.

"We were in an environment previously where everything really funneled to the top, and maybe some of the young people that have worked real hard didn't get a chance to have their positions heard or maybe didn't speak up as much. I've encouraged them to be collaborative, and I think the combination of Jerod and (director of player personnel) Matt (Groh) and together with Eliot, I'm actually excited (with) what I've seen."
"I feel bad. I think we've actually made some improvements," Kraft said. "I think we're getting the system of functioning the way we did where this year, we signed a number of younger players that we had drafted or had been in our system.

"As a foundation, if you want to win consistently, you have to draft well and then get those players on the second contract. We started to do that this year. We pursued the people we wanted in free agency."

Fans' expectations might be low, but the owner is setting the bar familiarly high.

"My hope and expectation is to make the playoffs," Kraft said. "That's something realistically. ... We have a new leadership team. We're gonna have a lot of young players. We don't know. A lot can happen. We might struggle more than I want. … I really feel like we have a good young team. I just hope we don't struggle. But in the end, everything is chit-chat until you get on the field. …

"I believe we're going in the right direction."
Narrator: "They were going in the wrong direction."
 

Over Guapo Grande

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This is asinine, most good coaches have HoF level players. Also, when is the last time a RB carried a team to the playoffs, 1992?
So Derrick Henry had no bearing on the success that the Titans had. It was all Vrabel's magic pixie dust that he used to elevate Tannehill? Not that Tannehill had success because teams were putting 9 in the box to try to stop Henry.
 

chief1

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Dogman

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Man, in retrospect these comments from Kraft in Mach sure have aged like milk.






Narrator: "They were going in the wrong direction."

I think I will develop a SJH post translator.

This translation:

I WANT WINZ NOW DAMMIT WHILE I IGNORE ALL CONTEXT AND CALL THE DRAFT A BUST AND PARSE ALL MAYO/WOLF/KRAFT COMMENTS TO FIT MY NARRATIVE AND DECLARE KRAFT A WOODY JOHNSON CLONE.

Seriously, next time you are outside touching grass, try not to yell at the clouds.
 

teddykgb

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The thing with Vrabel for me is that he was in a fairly easy division and that helps a lot to make a few playoff appearances. Then you win a game or two and you've built a reputation.

Coaching the Patriots means being probably 3rd best talent wise in 2025/2026 even if the team does everything well. Buffalo probably isn't going anywhere anytime soon. When Vrabels team stopped having talent he stopped having results. That's not really abnormal but when you're identifying a guy to turn this around it's a little hard to see what Vrabels path is. It's so much easier to see the path of an offensive guru to get an offense going which changes their trajectory
 

Garshaparra

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So Derrick Henry had no bearing on the success that the Titans had. It was all Vrabel's magic pixie dust that he used to elevate Tannehill? Not that Tannehill had success because teams were putting 9 in the box to try to stop Henry.
Henry was the straw that stirred the drink, no question. With Henry healthy in 2019, Tannehill relieves Mariota and gets 22 TDs in 12 games, following it with 33 TDs in a full 2020. AJ Brown got 8 and 11 of those TDs respectively. When Henry got hurt in 2021 (playing half the season), Tannehill threw for 22 in 17 games, and Brown caught 5 TDs in 13 games. Then Brown gets traded during his contract dispute in 2022, ostensibly for Treylon Burks, who has 1 more TD in the NFL than I do.

At the end of 2022, Jon Robinson was fired, and Vrabel the next year. FWIW, Robinson just interviewed with the Jets for their GM job after 2 years out of football, after (I'm sure) enjoying 2 years getting paid by the Titans and waiting for a desperate team to come calling.
 
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