Hold the Mayo? Evaluating Patriots coaching.

[EddieYost]

My guess…

Kraft fell in love with Mayo in 2019 and wanted him to be coach eventually.

McDaniels backs out of Colts job and stays with Pats. I think he got a new contract. He’s going to learn HC stuff from BB.

Josh leaves for Raiders after 2021.

Mayo draws interest from other teams in 2023 Kraft panics and gives him the 10 million dollar contract clause.

Bill freezes Mayo out and refuses to name a DC so as to avoid confrontation

Kraft fires bill and hires Mayo.

 

[nattysez]

Here's some of the Breer hit. If you assume he is speaking based on info and not just speculating wildly, this is damning. It got cut from this snippet, but he also said the football ops department KNOWS they are insufficiently staffed.

View: https://youtu.be/GzfYES4dZ6s?si=KkqsaNUwgZ6E8Q5V

Here's a shorter summary on TikTok:

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTYvJNpe7/

 

[bsan34]

Here's some of the Breer hit. If you assume he is speaking based on info and not just speculating wildly, this is damning. It got cut from this snippet, but he also said the football ops department KNOWS they are insufficiently staffed.

View: https://youtu.be/GzfYES4dZ6s?si=KkqsaNUwgZ6E8Q5V

Here's a shorter summary on TikTok:

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTYvJNpe7/

This seems like the kind of problem that's to be expected when you have a generational talent in Belichick doing things so uniquely his way for decades. It also seems like a very fixable problem that takes (we're all hopeful just one) year like this to demonstrate its existence.

 

[tims4wins]

Mayo should be on a college sideline.

 

[sezwho]

Mayo should be on a college sideline.

Ironically Bill will and probably shouldn’t be.

Wow, I really saw an opportunity for Mayo to take some lumps but grow into the role. Hasn’t happened in any visible way to me, if anything it looks like we’re regressing.

One of the more unsung casualties of the non-process is it’s clear theres no plan. Seems like Mayo walked into the job so never had to ‘put the binder together’ and seemed to act like he had time.

I’m flashing back to that off-season moment when they delayed having players come…because they just weren’t ready.

Week 17 and they still arent.

 

[nattysez]

This seems like the kind of problem that's to be expected when you have a generational talent in Belichick doing things so uniquely his way for decades. It also seems like a very fixable problem that takes (we're all hopeful just one) year like this to demonstrate its existence.

Totally agree on all counts, though I think it'll take time for addressing the problem to bear fruit. If they don't have enough college scouts, they likely can't hire enough guys in time to fully scout this year's draft.

 

[dynomite]

I hold zero grudge against BB if Mayo was forced upon him as the "coach in waiting". That's a dumb designation in pro sports to begin with, and even dumber if Kraft didn't have BB's buy in to do it.

What confuses me, however, is how the timeline aligns with Josh McDaniels departure. Wasn't McDaniels considered the "coach in waiting" when he decided to forego the Colts HC job and stay with the Pats? He was here as recently as the 2021 season, so did Kraft elevate Mayo after Josh left?

We'll never really know.

Still, the succession plan for a while in 2016/2017 seemed to be Josh McD as HC and Jimmy G at QB. We all got a chance to see how that worked out in Las Vegas a few years later, so hopefully that's something of a silver lining.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

This seems like the kind of problem that's to be expected when you have a generational talent in Belichick doing things so uniquely his way for decades. It also seems like a very fixable problem that takes (we're all hopeful just one) year like this to demonstrate its existence.

I agree with this take. I would also add that if the Krafts open up their wallet they will likely attract talented people. They may have their QB1 already and they have cap room plus an effective blank canvas.

Things could turn a lot more quickly than some here are arguing. Or maybe they are right and we will pay for the last two decades with the next two.

 

[nattysez]

I agree with this take. I would also add that if the Krafts open up their wallet they will likely attract talented people. They may have their QB1 already and they have cap room plus an effective blank canvas.

Things could turn a lot more quickly than some here are arguing. Or maybe they are right and we will pay for the last two decades with the next two.

Hold on -- my understanding was that I paid for the last 20 with the 20 before that.

 

[Auger34]

Here's some of the Breer hit. If you assume he is speaking based on info and not just speculating wildly, this is damning. It got cut from this snippet, but he also said the football ops department KNOWS they are insufficiently staffed.

View: https://youtu.be/GzfYES4dZ6s?si=KkqsaNUwgZ6E8Q5V

Here's a shorter summary on TikTok:

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTYvJNpe7/

I haven’t posted anything bad about Kraft. I think he deserves credit for letting BB do things the BB way and not intervening at all for however long he did. It ended badly but a good portion of owners would have tried to steal the glory much earlier than he did…

However, this is incredibly bad news. The more stuff that leaks the more you have to wonder if Wolfe, and by extension Mayo, weren’t afforded the tools necessary to be good at their jobs

 

[jsinger121]

I haven’t posted anything bad about Kraft. I think he deserves credit for letting BB do things the BB way and not intervening at all for however long he did. It ended badly but a good portion of owners would have tried to steal the glory much earlier than he did…

However, this is incredibly bad news. The more stuff that leaks the more you have to wonder if Wolfe, and by extension Mayo, weren’t afforded the tools necessary to be good at their jobs

I'd say Wolf more than Mayo in terms of not being given the resources. Jerod Mayo had zero contacts through the league in trying to build a good staff and had to use Wolf's connections to get mostly retreads to come here to work. That is a problem right there.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Totally agree on all counts, though I think it'll take time for addressing the problem to bear fruit. If they don't have enough college scouts, they likely can't hire enough guys in time to fully scout this year's draft.

This is also a big reason they need to dump Wolf and Groh ASAP.

The 2025 draft will have to be performed based off the current regime’s work (largely). But if you gut the scouting and football ops next week, you can get a new (expanded) team of evaluators in place so they can “own” 2026

If you give Wolf and Groh another year, you’re looking at 2027 at the earliest before meaningful changes can be seen in the scouting evaluations

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

We're in an old testament mood today, I see

Or maybe they are right and we will pay for the last two decades with the next two.

Fondly do we hope--fervently do we pray--that this mighty scourge may speedily pass away. Yet, if God wills that it continue, until all the wealth piled by the Belichick's years of toil shall be sunk, and until every drop of blood given for a first down, shall be paid by another drawn in a failure to moveth the chains, as was said three thousand years ago, so still it must be said "The judgments of the Lord, are true and righteous altogether"

 

[twibnotes]

It’s really painting the picture that Kraft is the biggest problem and we’re pretty much fucked.

this.

I used to be excited by all the public pressure but now I worry it will make Kraft dig in his heels.

If he does, next year could be extremely ugly (empty seats by week 5 or 6). People are pissed and they should be

Edit: best hope is that Jonathan can get through to Bob and basically say the vrabel play is a safe way back they have to consider seriously. Staying with either this FO and staff (let alone both) is a disaster

 

[NomarsFool]

If we're to believe Kraft about his Israel trip story then he decided that he wanted Mayo as next head coach in summer 2019, before he had ever coached a game on an NFL sideline. That's just ridiculous on a million levels and can only be destabilizing and a headache for the current head coach, who is likely aware that many of his assistants or former assistants - including his own son - not only might also have dreams about that position but were also much more qualified.

This is an excellent point. Any grooming of Mayo by BB would likely have been resented by (at least some) of the other coaches.

As others have pointed out, my hypothesis of the Israel trip story is an example of survivor bias. I'd guess that for all the people that believe they knew the instant they met their spouse that they would marry them, there are lots of other non-spouses out there that they also believed they would marry the instant they met them.

 

[Steve Dillard]

So two of BB’s biggest famous deficits were 1) annoying the media by not explaining himself and 2) weakness at evaluating top college receivers.

and 28-3

 

[Bongorific]

Totally agree on all counts, though I think it'll take time for addressing the problem to bear fruit. If they don't have enough college scouts, they likely can't hire enough guys in time to fully scout this year's draft.

Last year they could’ve picked up a draft guide at a news stand on their way to the draft and done a better job. I hope they dedicate the resources needed to reinvent their scouting department. In the meantime, get a GM and coach in place, figure out what schemes you’re running, and draft BPA that fits the scheme.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

and 28-3

Most excellent

 

[E5 Yaz]

Last year they could’ve picked up a draft guide at a news stand on their way to the draft and done a better job.

That was one of the dumber comments the clown on the left made in that Breer video.

 

[Bongorific]

That was one of the dumber comments the clown on the left made in that Breer video.

I didn’t watch the video. But is it inaccurate?

 

[E5 Yaz]

I didn’t watch the video. But is it inaccurate?

I find it an oversimplification.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I didn’t watch the video. But is it inaccurate?

yes probably? Like all things drafting is complicated, in part because a lot of the outcomes depend on coaching, scheme fits, time, etc.

 

[gmogmo]

Mayo should be on a college sideline.

Mayo should be nowhere near a football field, he belongs back at Optum

 

[jsinger121]

I’ll say this. I was no fan of how BB ran the Patriots into the ground at the end but if Jerod Mayo is sent packing on black Monday which he should be then BB’s segment on Pat McAfee should be pure gold. Would love to see him bury Jerod Mayo into the ground on national TV.

 

[Silverdude2167]

I’ll say this. I was no fan of how BB ran the Patriots into the ground at the end but if Jerod Mayo is sent packing on black Monday which he should be then BB’s segment on Pat McAfee should be pure gold. Would love to see him bury Jerod Mayo into the ground on national TV.

Unless BB thinks that Mayo got him fired (and I think Wolf was the one conducting the whisper campaign (based on no facts FYI)), I don't think he will say anything bad about Mayo. Now I could see him go in hard on Kraft and I would enjoy that.

 

[lexrageorge]

Unless BB thinks that Mayo got him fired (and I think Wolf was the one conducting the whisper campaign (based on no facts FYI)), I don't think he will say anything bad about Mayo. Now I could see him go in hard on Kraft and I would enjoy that.

Agree. I never got the impression that there was bad blood between Bill and Mayo. There may have been rifts among the assistants; I get the feeling that Bill O'Brien wasn't really happy how BB was ushered out the door and Wickersham got some anonymous quotes regarding Mayo approach that could be attributed to BoB. But the situation with BB being on an obvious hot seat would create a situation ripe for dissension among the staff.

At the same time, Brian Belichick remains on Mayo's staff, and he certainly would have had other options available to him last offseason. And Steve Belichick's departure seemed completely amicable.

I will enter speculation territory here and state that Bill probably thought highly of Mayo, or he wouldn't have brought him on board. But Bill wasn't going to go out of his way to train Mayo as "head coach in waiting", as there was no real reason for him to do that. The post-BB succession plan was Kraft's problem to solve, not Bill's. It's not like Bill Parcells ever held weekly "here's how to be a head coach" classes with BB, Tom Coughlin, and the rest of his staff back in the Giants days.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I’ll say this. I was no fan of how BB ran the Patriots into the ground at the end but if Jerod Mayo is sent packing on black Monday which he should be then BB’s segment on Pat McAfee should be pure gold. Would love to see him bury Jerod Mayo into the ground on national TV.

Unless BB thinks that Mayo got him fired (and I think Wolf was the one conducting the whisper campaign (based on no facts FYI)), I don't think he will say anything bad about Mayo. Now I could see him go in hard on Kraft and I would enjoy that.

Respectfully, why would you want that? Don’t you want these guys to bury the hatchet? I’m not trying to be holier than thou. I really want the stupid drama to stop. I hate this stuff.

This drama is also so much he-said she-said and it comes down to how much tolerance you have for reporting and sources. I know I have more than SN for example… but not a ton more.

The actual relevant Breer stuff about how our infrastructure is outdated and under-everythinged is incredibly useful. You wonder how true it is, to what degree, and if they (Krafts) make massive changes to the organization in year 2 post Bill.

 

[cornwalls@6]

In regards to the Patriots football operations being under-staffed, I wonder if the things that were always assumed to be Bill’s old school/unique way of operating (not paying/titling assistants quite to league market value, having a leaner, smaller operation than other places, often not spending to the cap, hard balling at times on contract negotiations with players, including Brady, etc.) were as much driven by the Krafts mandating much tighter cost controls on him than was reported or known at the time. I hope they come to the realization that, to some degree, they’re going to have spend their way out of this mess.

 

[scobie88]

In regards to the Patriots football operations being under-staffed, I wonder if the things that were always assumed to be Bill’s old school/unique way of operating (not paying/titling assistants quite to league market value, having a leaner, smaller operation than other places, often not spending to the cap, hard balling at times on contract negotiations with players, including Brady, etc.) were as much driven by the Krafts mandating much tighter cost controls on him than was reported or known at the time. I hope they come to the realization that, to some degree, they’re going to have spend their way out of this mess.

So waaaay back in 2017 the lacrosse player Paul Rabin started a podcast called "suiting up". One of his first guests was Bill. He actually got a ton of really good info out of Bill which I always thought was amazing. (BB obv said very little to media but then pours his heart out to a lacrosse guy. Classic Bill). He gives his summary of why he carried such a lean coaching staff and as often is the case it's pretty simple. Less people working at max capacity produces a better product than more people working at something less than full capacity. The whole thing is a worth a listen but the staffing stuff is at 4:15.

https://suitinguppodcast.com/episode/bill-belichick-new-england-patriots-head-coach/

 

[Trapaholic]

In regards to the Patriots football operations being under-staffed, I wonder if the things that were always assumed to be Bill’s old school/unique way of operating (not paying/titling assistants quite to league market value, having a leaner, smaller operation than other places, often not spending to the cap, hard balling at times on contract negotiations with players, including Brady, etc.) were as much driven by the Krafts mandating much tighter cost controls on him than was reported or known at the time. I hope they come to the realization that, to some degree, they’re going to have spend their way out of this mess.

I think this is it right here. BB implemented his program from top to bottom. They had a DC and OC obviously, but the rest of the operation was a skeleton crew. They had positional coaches and Ernie Adams, doing whatever he was doing. He was probably "the analytics department" to use todays terminology.

They would always get creative with the names of the roles, like "assistant" or "consultant" or whatever. I would have to assume that the actual names of the roles come with different pay grades. The salary cap is one thing, but they were consistently bottom of the league on actual cash spending. Team wasn't spending a ton of money on the football operation, and was still able to compete for a super bowl for 20 straight years. Pretty much the perfect set up for the Krafts.

Couple this with the fact that the organization was far behind the rest of the league in training facilities, family care, and accommodations. They were able to do this because they had the greatest coach and QB The 2 people who made this all possible, BB and Brady, are gone. These 2 were the crux of the whole operation. Unfortunately, it seems like the Krafts were the last people to realize this and we are starting from scratch.

EDIT: What kills me is that when hiring a new coach, they didn't even do a proper search. This would have been a great opportunity to at least interview people from around the league and get some insight into what other successful teams are doing. The whole thing was very insulated and they had very little knowledge of what was going on in the rest of the league. Handing the job to someone who was already in the building was cheap but also short sighted.

 

[ShaneTrot]

I’ll say this. I was no fan of how BB ran the Patriots into the ground at the end but if Jerod Mayo is sent packing on black Monday which he should be then BB’s segment on Pat McAfee should be pure gold. Would love to see him bury Jerod Mayo into the ground on national TV.

We get it you don't like Mayo. Mayo was a very good player for this team and has been saddled with the worst roster in the NFL. The lack of respect for the guy here is nauseating. I won't lose any sleep if he is back next year. The 2024 team is devoid of talent.

 

[Silverdude2167]

EDIT: What kills me is that when hiring a new coach, they didn't even do a proper search. This would have been a great opportunity to at least interview people from around the league and get some insight into what other successful teams are doing. The whole thing was very insulated and they had very little knowledge of what was going on in the rest of the league. Handing the job to someone who was already in the building was cheap but also short sighted.

100% this.

I was not on board with firing BB, but if you are going to you need to clean house.

Thinking the sinking ship could be fixed by firing the captain and keeping the crew was insanity especially when the captain was the GOAT and had a unique way of doing things.

 

[BaseballJones]

So waaaay back in 2017 the lacrosse player Paul Rabin started a podcast called "suiting up". One of his first guests was Bill. He actually got a ton of really good info out of Bill which I always thought was amazing. (BB obv said very little to media but then pours his heart out to a lacrosse guy. Classic Bill). He gives his summary of why he carried such a lean coaching staff and as often is the case it's pretty simple. Less people working at max capacity produces a better product than more people working at something less than full capacity. The whole thing is a worth a listen but the staffing stuff is at 4:15.

https://suitinguppodcast.com/episode/bill-belichick-new-england-patriots-head-coach/

Man, I miss having this guy as HC.

 

[Auger34]

We get it you don't like Mayo. Mayo was a very good player for this team and has been saddled with the worst roster in the NFL. The lack of respect for the guy here is nauseating. I won't lose any sleep if he is back next year. The 2024 team is devoid of talent.

Yeah, the guy hasn’t been a good coach so far but some people are trying to paint him as some Machiavellian, greedy sniveling loser who strong armed an owner into a job he didn’t deserve are going way too far IMO

 

[Cellar-Door]

Man, I miss having this guy as HC.

Of course he's not the HC anymore in part because the problem with his theory (beyond that good people will work at full capacity anyway, as many of the top franchises have shown), and that more people means more skillsets, is that when you have a small staff, you need to replace each person perfectly each time, and any slippage of any of those people (including Bill) in any area is huge.

The Patriots had a setup that worked because of the high end talent of Bill and some of his closest allies... and a great QB that covered for mistakes. The decline came when he probably slipped a little on the personnel side with age, and he couldn't replace guys like Ernie, Pioli, DiMitroff, Scar, etc. If he had a larger pool of talented coaches/execs/scouts all the way through, then he would be less susceptible to brain drain.

 

[Dogman]

I’ll say this. I was no fan of how BB ran the Patriots into the ground at the end but if Jerod Mayo is sent packing on black Monday which he should be then BB’s segment on Pat McAfee should be pure gold. Would love to see him bury Jerod Mayo into the ground on national TV.

There are a number of things with this that give me pause and reason for concern.

During the dynasty, you were hardly posting or at least nowhere close to the volume of posts since Brady left and the team plummeted. You were very vocal about wanting BB gone, but nowhere close to where you are at this point with Mayo. When describing Mayo over the last few weeks, you've said things like "he is a loser", "he is a weasel", and "he is lazy and does nothing all week" to express your hatred for him. You rush to start Game Goat threads before the games are even over to trash him. When starting a Patriots gamethread, you trash him days before the game starts. Now, the quoted post. I understand not liking the job Mayo has done. I also understand our fandom and expecting better results. I also recognize some just like to complain (hello SJH). But, your posting and behavior is not normal and my reasons for concern are now about your mental and physical health.

In all seriousness, are you ok?

(Trolling is certainly possible, but benefit of doubt and all that)

 

[jacklamabe65]

I would love to see the team do the same that Craig Breslow did and have an external audit done as part of the rebuilding process. Preferably, this should be done by Eliot Wolf or the next Director of Football Operations.

 

[Justthetippett]

I would love to see the team do the same that Craig Breslow did and have an external audit done as part of the rebuilding process. Preferably, this should be done by Eliot Wolf or the next Director of Football Operations.

I think many scoffed at the Sox for this. It seemed at the time like some classic over-consulting/corporatization of the franchise. Remains to be seen if it bears fruit. But I agree the Pats need some version of this approach. It's a perfect moment for a review to see what the next steps should be.

 

[Dotrat]

The Patriots had a setup that worked because of the high end talent of Bill and some of his closest allies... and a great QB that covered for mistakes. The decline came when he probably slipped a little on the personnel side with age, and he couldn't replace guys like Ernie, Pioli, DiMitroff, Scar, etc. If he had a larger pool of talented coaches/execs/scouts all the way through, then he would be less susceptible to brain drain.

I think the drain in experience and intellect from the football ops and coaching staffs has been the most underreported problem with the team going back to Scar's retirement early in 2020. Since that time, they've also lost Nick Caserio, Ernie Adams, and Josh McDaniels (who took a few assistants with him)--as well as (IIRC) some departures from the scouting ranks. None of these highly valuable people were adequately replaced, never mind improved on. The team has been lacking coaching and FO talent since well before BB's exit--even before we account for the ways in which his leaner and meaner approach may have cost the team.

Needless to say, part of any appraisal the Krafts conduct--ideally with some key input from outside the NEP--has to look closely and critically at the way in which the entire operation has been structured over the last decade or so at least.

 

[Bongorific]

I find it an oversimplification.

yes probably? Like all things drafting is complicated, in part because a lot of the outcomes depend on coaching, scheme fits, time, etc.

It's an oversimplification for how much work goes into drafting, sure. Despite how much work Wolf and the front office put in, though, early results look like they did worse than what's put out there for free, minimal cost, or by hobbyist. Good teams and good executives have had plenty of bad drafts. But the way I look at it, Wolf is hired and paid to be one of the top 32 people in the world to run a front office. I'm not very encouraged from this year.

Let's just look at receivers. Here's how our own @SMU_Sox ranked the receivers pre-draft, where they ended up getting drafted, and their 2024 stats.

SMU Rank	Draft #	Rec	Yds	Avg	Y/G	Lng	TD
Nabers	6	104	1,140	11	81.4	59	6
Harrison Jr.	4	57	822	14.4	51.4	60	7
Odunze	9	52	716	13.8	44.75	47	3
Thomas Jr.	23	80	1,179	14.7	69.35	85T	10
Coleman	33	27	525	19.4	43.8	64	4
Worthy	28	59	638	10.8	39.9	54	6 (+3 rushing)
Franklin	102	26	251	9.7	16.7	30	2
McConkey	34	77	1,054	13.7	81.1	60	7
Burton	80	4	107	26.8	7.64	47	0
Pearsall	31	25	331	13.2	33.1	46T	2
Mitchell	52	20	254	12.7	21.16	33	0
Wilson	84	IR
McMillan	92	32	387	12.1	32.3	32	7
Baker	110	0	0	0	0	0	0
Legette	32	41	439	10.7	31.4	35	4
Polk	37	12	87	7.3	6.21	21	2

Walter Football had it:
Harrison
Nabers
Odunze
Thomas Jr.
Worthy
Mitchell
Legette
Coleman
McConkey
Pearsall
McMillan
Polk

None were perfect. @SMU_Sox indicated a few times that he was high on Baker. Maybe he'll have a better sophomore season. From a quick search, I don't see many places that had Polk ahead of McConkey and McMillan.

 

[astrozombie]

I think many scoffed at the Sox for this. It seemed at the time like some classic over-consulting/corporatization of the franchise. Remains to be seen if it bears fruit. But I agree the Pats need some version of this approach. It's a perfect moment for a review to see what the next steps should be.

I realize this opinion is heavily influenced by whatever the reader thinks of the Sox ownership, but typically those types of "audits" are conducted with an aim to reducing costs by eliminating redundancies and reshuffling supervisors. The firm wasn't brought in to make the Sox operations (or on-field product) better; it was done to reduce costs. That said, I agree with you that the Pats would benefit from the Commanders approach of ownership hiring out a firm to find someone who knows what they are doing, put that someone in charge of football ops (either as GM or person who would hire a GM) and give that person some authority to make decisions as well as support them if they want to do things like expand the scouting or analytic departments.

 

[Cellar-Door]

It's an oversimplification for how much work goes into drafting, sure. Despite how much work Wolf and the front office put in, though, early results look like they did worse than what's put out there for free, minimal cost, or by hobbyist. Good teams and good executives have had plenty of bad drafts. But the way I look at it, Wolf is hired and paid to be one of the top 32 people in the world to run a front office. I'm not very encouraged from this year.



None were perfect. @SMU_Sox indicated a few times that he was high on Baker. Maybe he'll have a better sophomore season. From a quick search, I don't see many places that had Polk ahead of McConkey and McMillan.

One key point with Ladd... the people doing those rankings don't have his medicals, and we know some teams had him red-flagged.

In terms of Polk, yeah he wasn't high on some lists, but not many were as low as SMU.
PFF had him as the 11th WR, 48th player overall, only guys ahead of him on their board not drafted before him.... Mitchell, Wilson, Franklin (guys behind him drafted before him... Legette, Worthy)
Nate Tice at Yahoo had him the 7th best WR, 34th player overall, ahead of Pearsall, Legette and Worthy, and 1 spot ahead of Ladd McConkey!
Connor Rodgers at NBC Sports had him 28th overall and 5th WR (He was insanely high on him) ahead of Ladd, and a bunch of others.

I'd say consensus was Polk in the 11th-14th WR and he was taken as the 10th, so high but given how messy that area was and the non-public stuff like Medicals etc..... it was a mild reach not some wild off the board call.

But also, people always say... "should have gone with the magazines" when the guy who was higher ranked is better, but never when saying stuff like "How could you take Harry over Deebo".

 

[Prodigal Sox]

So waaaay back in 2017 the lacrosse player Paul Rabin started a podcast called "suiting up". One of his first guests was Bill. He actually got a ton of really good info out of Bill which I always thought was amazing. (BB obv said very little to media but then pours his heart out to a lacrosse guy. Classic Bill). He gives his summary of why he carried such a lean coaching staff and as often is the case it's pretty simple. Less people working at max capacity produces a better product than more people working at something less than full capacity. The whole thing is a worth a listen but the staffing stuff is at 4:15.

https://suitinguppodcast.com/episode/bill-belichick-new-england-patriots-head-coach/

There is an old book on software development, from 1975, called "The Mythical Man Month" that is about this. Essentially it boils down to the fact if there is "X" number of man hours associated with a project you can't just divide it by a number of people and assume that that's how long it will take to get a project done. At some point, the administrative work and communication adds more hours to the timeline/project than the help in adding additional people. Not to mention the reduction in product quality from the errors that occur due to communication and coordination problems.

 

[Bongorific]

One key point with Ladd... the people doing those rankings don't have his medicals, and we know some teams had him red-flagged.

In terms of Polk, yeah he wasn't high on some lists, but not many were as low as SMU.
PFF had him as the 11th WR, 48th player overall, only guys ahead of him on their board not drafted before him.... Mitchell, Wilson, Franklin (guys behind him drafted before him... Legette, Worthy)
Nate Tice at Yahoo had him the 7th best WR, 34th player overall, ahead of Pearsall, Legette and Worthy, and 1 spot ahead of Ladd McConkey!
Connor Rodgers at NBC Sports had him 28th overall and 5th WR (He was insanely high on him) ahead of Ladd, and a bunch of others.

I'd say consensus was Polk in the 11th-14th WR and he was taken as the 10th, so high but given how messy that area was and the non-public stuff like Medicals etc..... it was a mild reach not some wild off the board call.

But also, people always say... "should have gone with the magazines" when the guy who was higher ranked is better, but never when saying stuff like "How could you take Harry over Deebo".

Good point on the medicals.

Harry was such a huge miss that really hurt the franchise. But I’ve posted here before that there were others in the media that had him as the best receiver in draft.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Good point on the medicals.

Harry was such a huge miss that really hurt the franchise. But I’ve posted here before that there were others in the media that had him as the best receiver in draft.

Yeah, he was a consensus late 1st, early 2nd. He is basically the definition of a non-reach complete bust.

 

[SMU_Sox]

One key point with Ladd... the people doing those rankings don't have his medicals, and we know some teams had him red-flagged.

In terms of Polk, yeah he wasn't high on some lists, but not many were as low as SMU.
PFF had him as the 11th WR, 48th player overall, only guys ahead of him on their board not drafted before him.... Mitchell, Wilson, Franklin (guys behind him drafted before him... Legette, Worthy)
Nate Tice at Yahoo had him the 7th best WR, 34th player overall, ahead of Pearsall, Legette and Worthy, and 1 spot ahead of Ladd McConkey!
Connor Rodgers at NBC Sports had him 28th overall and 5th WR (He was insanely high on him) ahead of Ladd, and a bunch of others.

I'd say consensus was Polk in the 11th-14th WR and he was taken as the 10th, so high but given how messy that area was and the non-public stuff like Medicals etc..... it was a mild reach not some wild off the board call.

But also, people always say... "should have gone with the magazines" when the guy who was higher ranked is better, but never when saying stuff like "How could you take Harry over Deebo".

60th on Arif’s board. Thor Nystrom (who is the most accurate individual mock drafter the last 3 years) had him in the 120s. Waldman had him WR20. Plenty of folks didn’t love Polk.

By mock I mean his board matched the actual draft order the closest over the last 3 years. Again this all per Arif.

 

[SMU_Sox]

One last thing of slight interest with Polk: the nfl insider boards had him at 80 vs non nfl insider boards had him at 59. His original slot on the big board was 63.
NFL insiders are better at predicting where prospects go in the draft but are no better than their non-insider peers at predicting success overall.

 

[Cellar-Door]

60th on Arif’s board. Thor Nystrom (who is the most accurate individual mock drafter the last 3 years) had him in the 120s. Waldman had him WR20. Plenty of folks didn’t love Polk.

By mock I mean his board matched the actual draft order the closest over the last 3 years. Again this all per Arif.

Oh yeah I didn't mean to indicate people didn't have him low ( Arif's consensus board had him WR 13), I was just noting that it gets messy in the 11-14 range and within that there were some who did have him higher, and that non-public stuff can often be the reason a guy gets passed on. It was a reach, but also not a huge one (half a round maybe a full round?) and him completely tanking is weird.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I like putting guys in tiers. Polk was in a tier of 8 WRs. I didn’t have a big board last year because I had a real life first round pick born the day before the draft , but I would have probably been pointing to other positions and wondering why they didn’t take an edge, IDL, OG, OT not just I had graded higher, but much more importantly, the consensus board had higher. I can’t stress how little my own valuations mean. They mean nothing compared to the wisdom of the crowds. I think Polk is having a major confidence problem, but, at the same time I always saw him as a solid #2 type (Ideally suited for big slot or Z).

 

[Cellar-Door]

I like putting guys in tiers. Polk was in a tier of 8 WRs. I didn’t have a big board last year because I had a real life first round pick born the day before the draft , but I would have probably been pointing to other positions and wondering why they didn’t take an edge, IDL, OG, OT not just I had graded higher, but much more importantly, the consensus board had higher. I can’t stress how little my own valuations mean. They mean nothing compared to the wisdom of the crowds. I think Polk is having a major confidence problem, but, at the same time I always saw him as a solid #2 type (Ideally suited for big slot or Z).

That to me is the much better criticism (I think I mentioned it in another thread maybe?) than "why Polk over WR X" is that they pretty clearly locked in on the idea that they were taking a WR and OT in the 2nd and 3rd no matter what. Whether that was because the owner was pushing, Wolf decided draft for need, Mayo pushed for it, or it was just the product of a draft by committee, they clearly forced positions over BPA and it was a mistake.