Holt's Trade Value (Insert Wittier title here)

[Thelobsterroll]

So I noticed there is a lively debate about Holt's trade value or lack thereof. My mentor and all around great guy absinthe suggested I start a thread dedicated to this particular topic. I don't have the ability to move comments into this thread, but I will start with my thoughts and go from there.
Holt should be moved if the price is right and that price is high. I think due to his versatility, bat and his price tag for the foreseeable future he could easily be labeled as one of the building blocks. Though if we could turn Holt plus additional pieces into a cost controlled top of the rotation starter, you do so. So have at it Sosh. Let's hear your thoughts, diatribes, and quasi sarcastic responses.

 

[ehaz]

This is tricky. Holt is immensely valuable to this team as a 500 AB super-sub. He's also not even arb-eligible until 2017 - so I don't know if you'd be able to recoup fair value for him considering that Holt is controllable through 2020 and part of the 'core', albeit in a lesser capacity.

Personally, I don't even think about shopping Holt for prospects. But if the Sox made an off-season (or in-season) run at someone like Gray or Sale or one of the young Mets pitchers he obviously wouldn't be off-limits.

 

[mauf]

There are a handful of teams for whom Holt would be an upgrade on their current second baseman. Off the top of my head:
 
Yankees
Angels
Royals (but Infante is under contract another year)
A's (Zobrist is a FA after this season and probably will be dealt between now and Friday)
Phillies
Brewers
Diamondbacks (if they think Owings needs more AAA time)
 
Trying to figure out who would offer the most value would quickly devolve into mindless speculation, but it's not crazy to think there's a trading partner in there who'd offer something more valuable than a utility infielder, which is all Holt will ever be here.

 

[nattysez]

The A's are reportedly on the cusp of trading Ben Zobrist.  Whatever teams are interested in Zobrist will at least have some interest in Holt, who has thus far this year been nearly the same player as Zobrist, minus some power.  Holt has an 111 OPS+, while Zobrist is at 122, with almost the entire difference coming from Zobrist having more power.  Holt is 7 years younger with 2 more years until arb eligibility (2017).
 
The big problem, obviously, is that Zobrist has a long track record, while Holt has two good half-seasons under his belt (he fell off a cliff in the second half last year).
 
I'd certainly shop him, but wouldn't part with him without getting an excellent prospect in return.  I think the "he'll never have more value" thing is a little overblown (he's only 27), and I think the importance of him being able to step in for Pedey when Pedey's inevitably out with injuries is being demonstrated right now. 

 

[TomRicardo]

It is going to be really hard to have a team give us more than Holt's value at the trade deadline. 
 
Holt is not an overwhelming talent that can take you to the World Series so teams are less likely to mortgage their future to acquire him.
 
His peak value would be in the offseason not the trade deadline.

 

[pokey_reese]

I think that you have to start with the Zobrist trade just as something to look at:
 
A's get: Zobrist, Yunel Escobar
 
Rays get: John Jaso, Boog Powell (not that one), Daniel Robertson
 
Robertson was a first round pick back in 2012, but was still in A ball when the trade happened over the winter (97th on Fangraphs top 200 prospect list), Jaso has been a good offensive catcher, Boog Powell is a guy who is likely just AAAA player whose only real skill is a good eye at the plate.
 
On the flip side, Zobrist wasn't alone in the deal, so you have to discount some value there. He is also older than Holt, and finishing a contract, but he has also had a much higher peak and longer track record, so the thing that they really have in common is versatility.
 
I think that Holt could certainly bring back an interesting piece, but not anything like a cost-controlled top of the rotation starter, even in a package. He is probably worth about as much to the Sox next year as anyone else, unless you don't think that the Sox plan to contend in 2016.

 

[biollante]

I would be very surprised if Holt goes anywhere. He fits into the team pretty nicely now. Even if the team sucks.  I suspect he will be here next year. I guess my caveat to that remark is if he is packaged to get something they don't have right now...a number 1 starter. 

 

[grimshaw]

I see him as averaging 2 WAR until he makes some actual money, so a few years of $16-18 mill of surplus value.  Basically a cheaper Josh Harrison.
If he's an everyday day player at one position, I don't see him worth as much, and not every team has a spot for a super utility guy.  I think he's worth a B prospect or as a 2nd or 3rd piece for a major acquisition.

 

[snowmanny]

It is going to be really hard to have a team give us more than Holt's value at the trade deadline. 
 
Holt is not an overwhelming talent that can take you to the World Series so teams are less likely to mortgage their future to acquire him.
 
His peak value would be in the offseason not the trade deadline.

I wonder if that's true. I would have bet teams were generally most likely to overpay at the trade deadline because contenders might feel like they
want to pull out many, if not all, the stops.

 

[Pilgrim]

The problem is that utility infielder and 5th outfielder are actual roles that every team in baseball must fill, and are almost exclusively held by players who are, by definition, replacement level.

Even if Holt only gives you a win in a half in 120 games, thats value that you're almost certainly not going to get out of whatever Pedro Ciriaco type crumb bums fill the two roster roles he currently provides.

 

[nattysez]

Right-handers Sean Manaea and Aaron Brooks going to #Athletics for Zobrist, per @jcrasnick and @JonHeymanCBS.
 

 
 
Manaea just got called up to AA. Was a top-100 prospect across the board at the start of the year.
Brooks appears to be a meh starter at AAA -- he's repeating AAA this year.
 
So I'm not sure what that means you can get for Holt.

 

[jscola85]

I've had a man-crush on Manaea since he dominated the Cape League in 2012.  Kid is going to eventually be a stud.
 
While I think Holt and Zobrist aren't far off in value, Zobrist's 5+ year track record of success and additional pop in his bat mean a big value gap to what the Sox likely get for Holt.

On top of that, Holt is the kind of guy the Sox should hold onto.  His rest of year ZIPS projection is 0.7 WAR in 52 games, or ~2 WAR per full season.  That's a really nice player for his cost when you consider he can be slotted in basically anywhere on the diamond.  For a team like Boston that may see a fair bit of roster upheaval in the offseason to re-tool, having a guy you can shift around the diamond depending on where other players move is very valuable.

 

[Auger34]

 
 
Manaea just got called up to AA. Was a top-100 prospect across the board at the start of the year.
Brooks appears to be a meh starter at AAA -- he's repeating AAA this year.
 
So I'm not sure what that means you can get for Holt.

Holt is younger, on a cheaper contract, and at this time is a better defender and more versatile than Zobrist.
I think this means that that package is the minimum to expect for Holt

 

[mauf]

Holt and Zobrist are apples and oranges -- similar defensive flexibility, but very different age and contract status.
 
The only effect that the Zobrist trade has on Holt's market is removing one potential suitor (and not a likely one at that).

 

[jscola85]

Holt is younger, on a cheaper contract, and at this time is a better defender and more versatile than Zobrist.
I think this means that that package is the minimum to expect for Holt

 
Holt's value is heavily buoyed right now by a generous .364 BABIP.  He also only has ~200 games played of track record, whereas Zobrist has performed at a consistently high level going back to 2008/2009.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

In all the talk about Holt's value as a trade chip, no one has answered the very simple question of why the Red Sox should be shopping him in the first place?  What do people expect to gain from moving him now?
 
Let's say they can get a similar return to what the A's just got for Zobrist.  Two minor league pitchers, the more highly regarded of which looks to be on track to maybe crack a big league roster in 2017.  Is that something the Red Sox need more than what Holt gives them now, or will potentially give them in 2016-2019?
 
The trade deadline isn't supposed to be a going out of business sale where you sell anything that isn't nailed down.  They've got games to play the rest of this year, and beyond.