Hot take--who's gonna win and by how much?
- Thread starter DJnVa
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Would love for the Pats to win a SB in blowout fashion for once, but I voted for the usual 3-4 point victory.
If the Falcons play a zone coverage - as I understand they do over 80% of the time - the Pats are going to wipe them out.
If the Falcons can play aggressive man on the outside and get to Brady with 5 or fewer rushers, then it will be a game. However, even with two weeks it's really hard to start doing something that a team hasn't done for the entire year.
So I split the difference and said Pats win by TD-ish.
If the Falcons can play aggressive man on the outside and get to Brady with 5 or fewer rushers, then it will be a game. However, even with two weeks it's really hard to start doing something that a team hasn't done for the entire year.
So I split the difference and said Pats win by TD-ish.
I voted 7-9 Pats, I think they give up a late 4th quarter/garbage time TD to make it closeish, but are otherwise in control of the game.
My super useful gut feeling from the perspective of a barely football fan is that NE is going to steamroll the Falcons in a blowout.
I think the Patriots can totally lose this game. If they play the way they did against, say, Houston, they'll lose. Maybe even lose by a lot.
But this team is laser-focused on winning this championship for a multitude of reasons. The defense has the pieces, I think, to limit big plays from Atlanta and force a lot of long drives to turn into field goals. I see Butler one-on-one with Sanu and Rowe/McCourty doubling up Jones. I trust the front seven to limit the Falcons' running game, as they have all season.
I think at halftime everyone is sweating out a first half that will see two unfamiliar teams feeling each other out. I wouldn't be shocked if it's like 14-10 or something like that at the half, with either team in the lead. But the Patriots have been a great second-half team all season, and I think they start to pull away at the end of the third and throughout the fourth quarter.
With all of that said, this feels like a 37-26 Patriots win to me. I think the Falcons get into the end zone a couple of times, but the Patriots' defense forces a lot of field goals which ultimately prove to be the difference in the game.
But this team is laser-focused on winning this championship for a multitude of reasons. The defense has the pieces, I think, to limit big plays from Atlanta and force a lot of long drives to turn into field goals. I see Butler one-on-one with Sanu and Rowe/McCourty doubling up Jones. I trust the front seven to limit the Falcons' running game, as they have all season.
I think at halftime everyone is sweating out a first half that will see two unfamiliar teams feeling each other out. I wouldn't be shocked if it's like 14-10 or something like that at the half, with either team in the lead. But the Patriots have been a great second-half team all season, and I think they start to pull away at the end of the third and throughout the fourth quarter.
With all of that said, this feels like a 37-26 Patriots win to me. I think the Falcons get into the end zone a couple of times, but the Patriots' defense forces a lot of field goals which ultimately prove to be the difference in the game.
I'm having a hard time convincing myself on this one. Atlanta looked terrifying, and the emergence of Sanu, and the ability of Freeman and Coleman to catch balls out of the backfield is going to make them very tough to stop on third down.
I think the game ends up turning on who bogs down in the red zone and kicks field goals instead of scoring TDs.
I'm pessimistic by nature. I thought we'd lose to the Steelers. So, obviously, I have little credibility. 31-30 Falcons, though, is my fear and prediction. I sincerely hope I'm very very wrong.
I think the game ends up turning on who bogs down in the red zone and kicks field goals instead of scoring TDs.
I'm pessimistic by nature. I thought we'd lose to the Steelers. So, obviously, I have little credibility. 31-30 Falcons, though, is my fear and prediction. I sincerely hope I'm very very wrong.
Sticking with the SB prediction I made Jan. 2nd: NE 31 ATL 20
Despite all the high powered weapons on both sides, this game will be won in the trenches. We simply have to pressure their QB and prevent them from pressuring ours.
Despite all the high powered weapons on both sides, this game will be won in the trenches. We simply have to pressure their QB and prevent them from pressuring ours.
Count me in the 7-9 range.
I am in the "Safely in command, but giving up a garbage time TD with less than a minute to go, and then recovering the onside kick before victory formation" camp.
I am in the "Safely in command, but giving up a garbage time TD with less than a minute to go, and then recovering the onside kick before victory formation" camp.
When I think back to the big games the Brady/Belichick Pats have lost, including the two NYG Super Bowls, it generally wasn't because they couldn't keep up with a high-octane offense; it was because their own attack was neutralized by a historically good pass rush. I get that the Falcons' defense is improved and has great speed, but it seems to me that the things they do best don't match up well with where the Pats are most vulnerable.
On the other side of the ball, I am cautiously optimistic that the combo of BB, Patricia and a disciplined corps of players will be able to at least slow the Falcons down and get a couple key stops. I can picture the post-game stories about how the Pats schemed to contain Jones and the RBs to minimize big plays, and about how the Pats D was the great under-appreciated facet of this team.
Patriots 38, Falcons 27
On the other side of the ball, I am cautiously optimistic that the combo of BB, Patricia and a disciplined corps of players will be able to at least slow the Falcons down and get a couple key stops. I can picture the post-game stories about how the Pats schemed to contain Jones and the RBs to minimize big plays, and about how the Pats D was the great under-appreciated facet of this team.
Patriots 38, Falcons 27
Granting all the caveats re different team, different time, fewer playmKers on the Pats D...
Remember those playoff games against Peyton and "the Colts offense didn't punt ONCE last week?!" That's the vibe I get now. I believe BB, TB12, et al, will control the game via the offense AND the defense, resulting in a two-touchdown margin of victory.
38-24, F U Roger.
Edit typos and clarity
Remember those playoff games against Peyton and "the Colts offense didn't punt ONCE last week?!" That's the vibe I get now. I believe BB, TB12, et al, will control the game via the offense AND the defense, resulting in a two-touchdown margin of victory.
38-24, F U Roger.
Edit typos and clarity
Pats 38-23
Two weeks of preparation seems to help the team with the better D. I see the Falcons as an improved version of the 2014 Colts. Falcons will get their yards but the D will do it's bend but don't break thing. NE will run all over them and force them to play 8 men in the box. Blount will get 160+ yards and 2 TD's.
Two weeks of preparation seems to help the team with the better D. I see the Falcons as an improved version of the 2014 Colts. Falcons will get their yards but the D will do it's bend but don't break thing. NE will run all over them and force them to play 8 men in the box. Blount will get 160+ yards and 2 TD's.
I see something like a 31-27 Patriot win. I think that the Pats D Line will hold their own enough to contain Atlanta's running game and make Atlanta more one dimensional than they want to be. I think that Atlanta will have as many 4-8 yard dumpoffs as they want but will be frustrated and not be able to stay patient. I think Atlanta gets stymied on a few more drives than the Patriots. Pats D will throw enough confusing looks at Ryan and get him to let's say 2 three and outs. He'll be trying to be a little bit conservative to make sure that he's not throwing picks -at least for most of the game.
Pats offense shapeshifts throughout the game from balanced drives to hurry up to run heavy and keeps Atlanta's D guessing. Brady does his thing and keeps checking into stuff that Atlanta's D isn't ready for and keeps the chains moving.
Pats offense shapeshifts throughout the game from balanced drives to hurry up to run heavy and keeps Atlanta's D guessing. Brady does his thing and keeps checking into stuff that Atlanta's D isn't ready for and keeps the chains moving.
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I had NE over ATL 31-27 in the predictions thread, so I'll stick with that. But I am starting to think that the game could be lower scoring than people are thinking, with NE playing ball control on offense and trying to force long drives on D.
Yeah, I'm coming around to the under as well--I think the Pats will also sit back and dare the Falcons to run it. So while the scoring might be relatively high on a points per drive basis, there might not be a ton of drives.
Pats by 3-4. Pats will score against the Falcons' D no doubt, but I think they will cause the Pats a lot of problems. Namely, Julio WILL bust one or two and the RBs will be hard to contain. Unless the Pats want to slow down the game considerably when they have the ball (a real possibility), I see 34-30, or 33-30, Pats add one for the thumb.
Also, fuck Roger.
Also, fuck Roger.
Impressive.
Pats take a double digit lead into the 4th, but garbage time makes it close, 3-7 point win.
27-20 Pats, in a game not decided until the final possession. Both offenses wilt a bit in the limelight.
I know nothing about football, but the previews all say they are both stacked teams. I think we'll see the lowest scoring super bowl in history(21 total points in VII), with the Pats on top.
Good point. The Pats, if need be, probably could have put up 500 yards of offense on the Steelers.
It seems like in the midst of this Super Bowl analysis focused on Atlanta's offense is the very real fact that the Patriots have an absolutely dynamic and versatile offense that very well could light Atlanta's defense up like a Christmas tree.
Team 1: Awesome offense, average defense, good special teams
Team 2: Awesome offense, awesome defense, awesome special teams
Generally speaking, Team 2 wins. Not always of course. But probably more often than not.
That's where I'm at, though I think reality is that the Pats defense is more "very good" than awesome, and the Atlanta offense is so awesome that they are going to score quite a bit on even a very good defense. I trust this defense to force a couple more punts and field goals out of Atlanta than the other way around, though, so ultimately I think as long if NE is even in the turnover battle they win this game without much 4th quarter drama.
I'm thinking the opposite:
Pats by 10 in the 4th...but a Pick-6 or just an interception and security TD in the late minutes make it 17. Falcons get a quick field goal and then can't get the onside kick...Pat's run it out for a 14 pt. win.
Limit turnovers like we did against the Steelers and we win by more than 10. The falcons seem over inflated, but the Pats need to play like last weekend to secure the win.
All the Patriots Super Bowls in the Brady/Belichick have had a 3 or 4 point margin of victory. I'm going with history repeating itself and picking the Patriots because I think they are the better team and I'm a homer.
A football game can change with the direction an oblong football bounces. A fumble that hits the turf and bounces to the left to a Patriots player, versus that same ball hitting the turf and bouncing to the right to a Falcons player - can completely be the difference between a Patriots' victory or loss.
The Patriots are the better team. Similarly explosive offense. Much better defense. Better special teams. Better coaching. More experience. But in a one-game scenario, the better team doesn't always win.
The Pats tend to play really close Super Bowls. I don't see this being any different. I think, like some of you all here, that it will be more of a lower scoring game than some folks are imagining. I see both teams taking longer amounts of time getting into the end zone (or being held to field goals), limiting the number of possessions. Neither team tends to turn it over much, but I think each defense may come up with a big turnover at some point.
Close game all the way - the biggest lead either team has is 10 points. The Patriots take the lead late by a touchdown. Atlanta comes back to kick a field goal and then with like 4+ minutes left is faced with the decision of whether to kick and play defense or onside kick it. They kick it away. The Patriots then get enough first downs to run out the clock til about 30 seconds left. Then we all hold on for dear life as Ryan completes a couple of long passes to get within striking distance, but a last-second hail mary falls short.
Pats win, 31-27, just slipping under the O/U line of 59.
The Patriots are the better team. Similarly explosive offense. Much better defense. Better special teams. Better coaching. More experience. But in a one-game scenario, the better team doesn't always win.
The Pats tend to play really close Super Bowls. I don't see this being any different. I think, like some of you all here, that it will be more of a lower scoring game than some folks are imagining. I see both teams taking longer amounts of time getting into the end zone (or being held to field goals), limiting the number of possessions. Neither team tends to turn it over much, but I think each defense may come up with a big turnover at some point.
Close game all the way - the biggest lead either team has is 10 points. The Patriots take the lead late by a touchdown. Atlanta comes back to kick a field goal and then with like 4+ minutes left is faced with the decision of whether to kick and play defense or onside kick it. They kick it away. The Patriots then get enough first downs to run out the clock til about 30 seconds left. Then we all hold on for dear life as Ryan completes a couple of long passes to get within striking distance, but a last-second hail mary falls short.
Pats win, 31-27, just slipping under the O/U line of 59.
I think the people taking the Pats in 10+ scoring margins are nuts and are really underselling what this Falcons team is capable of. Julio Jones is the best non-QB offensive player in the league. Freeman and Coleman are both dynamic RBs and Coleman especially has speed that we really haven't seen out of the backfield. Their secondary WRs are capable of wreaking havoc in 1-on-1 scenarios. And Matt Ryan is basically matching our QB advantage that we have on basically everybody else.
This is going to be yet another nail biter and I hope we're on the right side of it. I have confidence that our offense scores some points but our defense will certainly give up a decent amount. And there's really no shame in that.
I think Pats would need to be +2 or better on turnover margin to win by 10+.
This is going to be yet another nail biter and I hope we're on the right side of it. I have confidence that our offense scores some points but our defense will certainly give up a decent amount. And there's really no shame in that.
I think Pats would need to be +2 or better on turnover margin to win by 10+.
Falcons 37-24.
Tom Brady has a "Bad Brady" Postseason game. Has two costly picks that Atlanta gobbles up 10 points converting. Brady still puts in a few TD's to make the stat line look good, but game is over with 8 minutes left in the 4th.
Tom Brady has a "Bad Brady" Postseason game. Has two costly picks that Atlanta gobbles up 10 points converting. Brady still puts in a few TD's to make the stat line look good, but game is over with 8 minutes left in the 4th.
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The most significant difference between NE's offense and Atlanta's is Atlanta's defense's inability to stop anyone, and how this caused Atlanta to have a huge amount of meaningful snaps late in games against bad teams. Atlanta was winning games 38-31 while the Patriots were busy winning those games 28-7.
(Average game score =NE:27.6-15, ATL:33.75-25)
DVOA paints a similar picture - the Falcons offense for the season is at +26.2%, which is good, but not in any way historical (2007,2010 Pats are 40%+). The Patriots this year, for reference are at 21.9%. There's a difference there, but not a big one.
The big difference in this game is the defense and special teams - the Patriots have about a 10% lead in defense, and 3% lead in ST - total DVOA ends up 40.8 Pats, 21.5 Falcons.
The chance of NE's good defense slowing down the Falcons great offense is significantly higher than the chance of the Falcons terrible defense slowing down the Patriots good offense. NE having a significant special teams advantage just exacerbates this.
NE by 7 or so, but not as close as the score indicates.
If these Falcons send 5 rushers and play aggressive man coverage, Brady will absolutely rip them to shreds on said plays with screens and hot routes.
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I see panther super bowl. Sort of nothing in first half and then all hell breaks loose. Pats 41-falcons 35
You are correct that the Pats could rip apart an aggressive man defense - particularly when the defense in question hasn't played a lot of man up to this game (one of the problem when trying to do something that isn't in a unit's "nature").
But Brady is going to rip apart a zone coverage (look at the Steelers) so it's kind of like pick your poison, no?
I love the line(s) of thinking here. Pats 31-20 with a late TD by Falcons of a super soft NE Prevent making it look like less of a blowout. Short of a 2005 Denver nightmare scenario with Turnovers I don't see how the Pats don't win. Hell they spotted an amazing Seattle team 2 turnovers for 59 minutes 2 years ago and still led that game (And I am in no way forgetting or diminishing the Greatest Play in NFL History).
The obscene confidence in this game is petrifying. Atlanta is a really good team, and the fan base confidence has a 2011 pats/jets AFC divisional vibe from me.
This game is a coinflip.
Atlanta terrifies the shit out of me. They just ROLLED two legit teams in GB and Seattle. Think they'll have more fans there too; I'm nervous as hell.
The Pats are 16-2, and would be 17-1 without a made up suspension. They're pretty good, too.
Pats are clearly a better overall squad. The gap between the Pats O and Atlanta D is bigger than that between the Atlanta O and Pats D. Would anyone dispute that? This doesn't mean it's a Pats win, but why would I pick against the better team with the best QB ever and the best coach ever?
Pats by 11, 38-27.
The Falcons are worse in weighed DVOA than the Steelers team the Pats just blew out. They are not solid in all three phases of the game, the Patriots are. They were ranked 27th in D by football outsiders far worse than Pitt which was ranked 8th and hyped up all week before getting picked apart. The Pats have nearly doubled the weighed DVOA as Atlanta and seem to match up very well in all 3 phases. It seems as if Atlanta doesn't keep it close early this will really tilt to a NE strength (running/not worrying about the Falcons running) while the reverse would not favor the Falcons in game flow.
Atlanta lost to TB, SD, PHI, and KC. NE with Brady lost once, at the buzzer to Seattle playing near full strength without Dion Lewis for the Patriots.
Fans were over confident heading into Houston, the team played like crap and still won by 20. And at the same time had a very recent wake up call. Being overconfident in the fan base isn't itself a reason to expect them to lose. There is little doubt this team comes out and isn't focused given everything they add to the legacy if they can win combined with two weeks of Belichick showing Atlanta highlights and creating a scheme. Barring a 2 turnover disadvantage (which is not strength of Atlanta) it doesn't seem like Atlanta should be close.
Atlanta lost to TB, SD, PHI, and KC. NE with Brady lost once, at the buzzer to Seattle playing near full strength without Dion Lewis for the Patriots.
Fans were over confident heading into Houston, the team played like crap and still won by 20. And at the same time had a very recent wake up call. Being overconfident in the fan base isn't itself a reason to expect them to lose. There is little doubt this team comes out and isn't focused given everything they add to the legacy if they can win combined with two weeks of Belichick showing Atlanta highlights and creating a scheme. Barring a 2 turnover disadvantage (which is not strength of Atlanta) it doesn't seem like Atlanta should be close.
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