Hot take--who's gonna win and by how much?

Winner and spread


  • Total voters
    258
  • Poll closed .

Kenny F'ing Powers

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The Pats are 16-2, and would be 17-1 without a made up suspension. They're pretty good, too.

Pats are clearly a better overall squad. The gap between the Pats O and Atlanta D is bigger than that between the Atlanta O and Pats D. Would anyone dispute that? This doesn't mean it's a Pats win, but why would I pick against the better team with the best QB ever and the best coach ever?

Pats by 11, 38-27.
You're arguing with yourself. Thinking your team should win isn't the same as some of the quotes in this thread (barring a ton of tutnovers, I don't see how the Patriots could lose.)
 

Ed Hillel

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You're arguing with yourself. Thinking your team should win isn't the same as some of the quotes in this thread (barring a ton of tutnovers, I don't see how the Patriots could lose.)
I don't think I'm arguing with myself, since I don't think there is anything objective that can be presented to show this game is a coinflip. Not saying Atlanta can't win, but I'm comfortable saying the Pats are clearly the better team on paper.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I don't think I'm arguing with myself, since I don't think there is anything objective that can be presented to show this game is a coinflip. Not saying Atlanta can't win, but I'm comfortable saying the Pats are clearly the better team on paper.
Vegas line is -3. That's essentially a coinflip.
 

Rudy's Curve

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I don't even know what the fuck this means. Care to dumb it down for the non-degenerates?
The Patriots money line (no spread, just have to win) is -155 now on Pinnacle, which is the best representation of the betting market because it takes almost unlimited sharp action, so you have to risk 155 to win 100 on them to win - sorry if that's dumbing it down too much. The Falcons are +140, so you have to risk 100 to win 140. The juice (vig) is included in both bets, so to figure the actual odds of the Patriots winning you add them up and divide by two which comes out to 147.5. In order to figure out the percentage of something where you're laying odds (the Patriots would be -147.5 if there was no vig), you divide the number by itself + 100, so 147.5/247.5 = 59.6%. To calculate the Falcons' odds (besides obviously subtracting 59.6 from 100), you divide 100 by 100 + the number, so 100/247.5 = 40.4%. There's still plenty of time left for things to change, but they're a pretty solid favorite at the moment.
 

simplyeric

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The Patriots money line (no spread, just have to win) is -155 now on Pinnacle, which is the best representation of the betting market because it takes almost unlimited sharp action, so you have to risk 155 to win 100 on them to win - sorry if that's dumbing it down too much. The Falcons are +140, so you have to risk 100 to win 140. The juice (vig) is included in both bets, so to figure the actual odds of the Patriots winning you add them up and divide by two which comes out to 147.5. In order to figure out the percentage of something where you're laying odds (the Patriots would be -147.5 if there was no vig), you divide the number by itself + 100, so 147.5/247.5 = 59.6%. To calculate the Falcons' odds (besides obviously subtracting 59.6 from 100), you divide 100 by 100 + the number, so 100/247.5 = 40.4%. There's still plenty of time left for things to change, but they're a pretty solid favorite at the moment.
'Defla....'
(There's more than one reason I'm not a betting man, but this is indeed one of them)
 

Bowhemian

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Atlanta terrifies the shit out of me. They just ROLLED two legit teams in GB and Seattle. Think they'll have more fans there too; I'm nervous as hell.
I agree with your overall point that they are a good team and that they just handily beat 2 quality teams. No doubt there. However, the GB team they played was not the same GB team that finished the regular season quite strongly. The GB players were dropping like flies, and I think they lost 4 or 5 starters before halftime of the Atlanta game.
With that said, I am not sure that GB would have beat Atlanta had they been full strength, but I do think it would have been a much closer game.

No doubt ATL is playing with a shit ton of confidence, which can be very dangerous...for either team. Confidence is good. Overconfidence, not so much.
 

Valek123

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This game is going to be the most like the NE/Carolina super bowl that I can remember, both teams will score nearly 30 and the game will hinge on turnovers and who has the ball last. I believe the NE defense to be superior by a fair amount and Atlanta's offense to be better, so it comes down to who executes and who turns the ball over. Or to boil it down even more, if Lewis/White have a good day the Pats win if they just miss a few throws I think they lose. Atlanta is going to come after them with the pass rush, Blount will help neutralize but the screen game and wheel routes will be the difference IMO. If Atlanta covers that up for the game I think they win as both teams will score. Just my .02, I'll take the Pats 7 times out of 10 in this but alas it's played one time.

Pats win 34 to 27 with Atlanta scoring late and failing to recover an onside kick.
 

johnmd20

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Falcons 37-24.

Tom Brady has a "Bad Brady" Postseason game. Has two costly picks that Atlanta gobbles up 10 points converting. Brady still puts in a few TD's to make the stat line look good, but game is over with 8 minutes left in the 4th.
This is one of the best attempted reverse mushes I've seen in years.
 

TheoShmeo

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The only way I can see the Pats losing is if the O-Line can't give Tom time. That has been the consistent thread through most playoff losses and many regular season losses.

Given how well Tom has been protected this year, I don't see that happening. Beasley is a beast and Freeney is a crafty, skilled player but I still don't see a line that can beat this year's group enough.

Rowe getting picked on worries me, too. But that will be a factor in the Falcons' success and will not be enough to tilt the scale.

38-24, Patriots.
 

nothumb

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I don't even know what the fuck this means. Care to dumb it down for the non-degenerates?
It means he thinks the Pats winning 6 times out of 10 instead of 5 is a big enough difference that we should have a semantic argument over this game being a coinflip or not.

I think the people you were responding to in your post were the ones picking Pats by 10 or saying "barring something totally crazy, we can't lose." Which implies like 75 or 80 percent win equity.

Your point was it's a more evenly matched game than some people think. You're right.
 

SMU_Sox

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I agree with KFP in that this is closer to a coin flip than an easy win. Most models have the Pats winning somewhere between 55-63% of the time. Add in factors which are hard to model (individual matchups, expected scheme va scheme results, injuries, etc.) and it is easy to see how people can knock 5-10% off of that to get to a coin flip. I keep going back and forth on the outcome. Why? Because I don't see a clear path to success for either defense. Yes, the Pats have a better defense. But that doesn't mean they can stop the Falcons. Ryan has excelled this year when he is not under pressure (something like a 130+ QB rating). The Pats are not a successful pass rushing team. Mack's injury gives me hope that Brown and/or Branch can collapse the middle of the pocket making life uncomfortable for Ryan. Does the Patriots defense have it in them to stall a Falcons drive once or twice forcing them to punt, get a turnover from the pressure on either a poor decision to throw by Ryan or a strip sack, and/or force the Falcons to settle for field goals in the red zone? Ask the same question for Atlanta's defense. I'm more confident in the Pats defense to do that. I see both teams executing longer drives and gobbling up what's given to them underneath. Maybe each team ends the game with only 8-9 drives. I like a 34-30 final as of 9:12am on 1/27/2017. Pats have 9 drives: 4 TDs, 2 FGs, and 3 punts. Falcons have 9 drives: 3TDs, 3 FGs, 2 punts and a turnover. The Pats do enough to hang on and win by 4. Big games for Jules, Blount, and Lewis/White. I think we see many non-Jules receiving options in the 4-5 receptions for 50-80 yards as Brady effectively spreads the ball around. Wouldn't surprise me if both Brady and Ryan end up with 325+ yards and a high completion %.
 

drbretto

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It means he thinks the Pats winning 6 times out of 10 instead of 5 is a big enough difference that we should have a semantic argument over this game being a coinflip or not.

I think the people you were responding to in your post were the ones picking Pats by 10 or saying "barring something totally crazy, we can't lose." Which implies like 75 or 80 percent win equity.

Your point was it's a more evenly matched game than some people think. You're right.
IMO, 60/40 is more significant than you're giving it credit for.
 

Stitch01

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Yeah I actually think its closer to a coin flip than the market and that +3 is probably the "right" side, but the Vegas line isn't evidence the game is a coin flip.
 

Reverend

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I agree with KFP in that this is closer to a coin flip than an easy win. Most models have the Pats winning somewhere between 55-63% of the time. Add in factors which are hard to model (individual matchups, expected scheme va scheme results, injuries, etc.) and it is easy to see how people can knock 5-10% off of that to get to a coin flip. I keep going back and forth on the outcome. Why? Because I don't see a clear path to success for either defense. Yes, the Pats have a better defense. But that doesn't mean they can stop the Falcons. Ryan has excelled this year when he is not under pressure (something like a 130+ QB rating). The Pats are not a successful pass rushing team. Mack's injury gives me hope that Brown and/or Branch can collapse the middle of the pocket making life uncomfortable for Ryan. Does the Patriots defense have it in them to stall a Falcons drive once or twice forcing them to punt, get a turnover from the pressure on either a poor decision to throw by Ryan or a strip sack, and/or force the Falcons to settle for field goals in the red zone? Ask the same question for Atlanta's defense. I'm more confident in the Pats defense to do that. I see both teams executing longer drives and gobbling up what's given to them underneath. Maybe each team ends the game with only 8-9 drives. I like a 34-30 final as of 9:12am on 1/27/2017. Pats have 9 drives: 4 TDs, 2 FGs, and 3 punts. Falcons have 9 drives: 3TDs, 3 FGs, 2 punts and a turnover. The Pats do enough to hang on and win by 4. Big games for Jules, Blount, and Lewis/White. I think we see many non-Jules receiving options in the 4-5 receptions for 50-80 yards as Brady effectively spreads the ball around. Wouldn't surprise me if both Brady and Ryan end up with 325+ yards and a high completion %.
To what extent, though, is Lewis a wild card here. His usage by the Pats is anything but consistent and classic game planning.

It's quite possible that how we think this game might shake out hinges greatly on how we think Belichick's usage of Lewis could matchup against ATL, i.e. if he could play an impactful role.

I don't know nearly enough about ATL to address this kind of gameplanning issue and how much potential there is for an impact there, or if there is reason to believe he's a non-factor against a team like the Falcons.
 

loshjott

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The Patriots did not face any top 10 QBs by rating this season. They are, in order: Ryan, Brady, Prescott, Rodgers, Brees, Bradford, Cousins, Carr, Luck, Mariota. I think the speed and precision of Atlanta's offense will put the Pats D on their heels in the early going. How the Pats D adjusts will be the deciding factor, along with the obvious of turnovers and special team play. Pats will get their points and so will Atlanta.

35-31 either way.
 

drbretto

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My only source of confidence (and I will absolutely defer to anyone else here as the only things I know about this game come from all of you anyway) is that if the Pats do have a significant statistical advantage, it would/should take mental errors and a lack of preparation to be upset. And I just don't see that happening here. They seem to have the most prepared leadership, a ton of experience and I know they will downplay the deflategate thing, but I just can't see Atlanta wanting it more than they do.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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. However, the GB team they played was not the same GB team that finished the regular season quite strongly. The GB players were dropping like flies, and I think they lost 4 or 5 starters before halftime of the Atlanta game.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Houston would have beat the GB team that was playing in the 2nd half. They were a mess.

Yes, Atlanta just throttled two good teams - but the Patriots just throttled a good team and put up 34 points on what might be the best defense in the league.

New England is the better team here, and by a significant amount. They are, and should be the favorite. The two teams have similar offenses, and NE has significantly better defense and special teams. Frankly, I think the spread should be 4-5, and not 3.

3 Points makes sense in a neutral matchup, but the Falcons have been abysmal at covering running backs and slot receivers, and that is an enormous weakness to have playing the Patriots. The games where teams have largely been successful slowing down Atlanta they've stopped Atlanta's running game early, which forced Atlanta to be one dimensional - and NE has better run defense running the nickle than most teams do in a base set.

Atlanta is good enough that anything can happen here, but NE is a bad matchup for them, and a better team. That doesn't mean NE will win - margins are thin enough at this level where a bad throw, or fumble early in a game can change the whole shape of the game.

No, the NE defense will not stop Atlanta from scoring, but they don't have to. They just have to keep the scoring down a little, because barring anything unforeseen, the Patriots are going to put up a lot of points on Atlanta.
 

nothumb

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IMO, 60/40 is more significant than you're giving it credit for.
I have played enough cards to know that 60% favorites lose with regularity. I don't know how much credit you think I am giving or not giving or why - if you asked me to pick one team straight up at even money, I would certainly take the Pats. All I'm saying is it's pretty easy for a team that's a 3:2 favorite to lose without any freaky or unusual shit happening - it happens all the time.

So in the context of this discussion, where some people are saying shit has to go completely sideways for the Pats not to win, and KFP is pushing back by saying the game is more like a coin flip, I would agree with the spirit of what he's saying - that it's a close matchup and neither team winning should be a shock - even if the game is not literally a toss up / pick em.

They only play it the once, so it's mostly academic anyway.
 

axx

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No, the NE defense will not stop Atlanta from scoring, but they don't have to. They just have to keep the scoring down a little, because barring anything unforeseen, the Patriots are going to put up a lot of points on Atlanta.
You could really say the same thing about the Falcons. Running the ball to kill the clock doesn't seem like a bad idea honestly.
 

drbretto

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I have played enough cards to know that 60% favorites lose with regularity. I don't know how much credit you think I am giving or not giving or why - if you asked me to pick one team straight up at even money, I would certainly take the Pats. All I'm saying is it's pretty easy for a team that's a 3:2 favorite to lose without any freaky or unusual shit happening - it happens all the time.

So in the context of this discussion, where some people are saying shit has to go completely sideways for the Pats not to win, and KFP is pushing back by saying the game is more like a coin flip, I would agree with the spirit of what he's saying - that it's a close matchup and neither team winning should be a shock - even if the game is not literally a toss up / pick em.

They only play it the once, so it's mostly academic anyway.
I honestly don't think we're that far apart from each other. I was just saying that 60% is a more significant than you were making it out to be. I totally get your overall point and don't completely disagree. I don't think anyone is really saying it's a fait accompli, either.

I don't think it'll take anything crazy for the Falcons to pull the upset, either. I just don't see it being the Pats making the mistake, so I feel like the Pats' real odds are probably on the higher side of the range.

Just to clarify the spirit of my comments. It can't be overstated how little I know about football compared to the rest of you.
 

Captaincoop

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There have been several folks stating that they expect something like the Pats-Panthers Super Bowl (on SOSH and elsewhere).

It's worth noting that before that game, everyone was 100% positive that game was going to be a low-scoring slugfest between two great defenses. I can't remember what the o/u was, but it was low. With two weeks of planning, anything can happen. I wouldn't rule out at least one of these offenses getting shut down.
 

uk_sox_fan

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There have been several folks stating that they expect something like the Pats-Panthers Super Bowl (on SOSH and elsewhere).

It's worth noting that before that game, everyone was 100% positive that game was going to be a low-scoring slugfest between two great defenses. I can't remember what the o/u was, but it was low. With two weeks of planning, anything can happen. I wouldn't rule out at least one of these offenses getting shut down.
You're right - it was 37.5. Only XXXV (Ravens - Giants) was lower before or since all the way back to the early 80's

http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/super-bowl-betting-odds-history
 

BigSoxFan

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tims4wins

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And the game started at like 37.5 would be too high. The first quarter was punts galore. I think at one point deep into the first, the Panthers had like 1 or 2 first downs. Then injuries hit and all of a sudden the Panthers started moving the ball.
Zero. I think they had zero first downs and Delhomme had negative passing yards. Pats went up 7-0 after the Vrabel strip sack led to a quick TD drive, then the Panthers were in 3rd and long deep in their own territory, and Proehl IIRC made a juggling catch that extended the drive, and the Panthers ended up scoring on the bomb to Smith. If they hadn't completed that pass the Pats might have trounced them.

Edit: looked it up. Panthers had 1 first down which came on a defensive holding call.
 
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loshjott

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Zero. I think they had zero first downs and Delhomme had negative passing yards. Pats went up 7-0 after the Vrabel strip sack led to a quick TD drive, then the Panthers were in 3rd and long deep in their own territory, and Proehl IIRC made a juggling catch that extended the drive, and the Panthers ended up scoring on the bomb to Smith. If they hadn't completed that pass the Pats might have trounced them.
Isn't that the play where Eugene Wilson went out injured?
 

Toe Nash

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The obscene confidence in this game is petrifying. Atlanta is a really good team, and the fan base confidence has a 2011 pats/jets AFC divisional vibe from me.

This game is a coinflip.
Good thing fans' feelings have zero impact on the actual game.

I think they will win by exactly 10, which technically isn't a option in the poll so I picked >10 :).

34-24 Pats.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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You could really say the same thing about the Falcons. Running the ball to kill the clock doesn't seem like a bad idea honestly.
You can, but the odds of it happening are very different.

The difference between the Patriots defense and Falcons defense is significantly larger than the difference between their offenses.

Here are the point-per-drive stats:

NE - OFF: 2.44 (4th) DEF:1.39 (1st) Point Differential Per Drive: 1.05
ATL-OFF: 3.09 (1st) DEF:2.31 (29th) Point Differential Per Drive : .78

The Falcons defense turned basically the average team they played into the 6th ranked offense in the league. The Patriots defense turned the average team they played into a hybrid between the Browns and Rams.


That doesn't mean the Patriots will win, but the idea that the Falcons offense doesn't have a tougher job than the Patriots offense is insane.
 

SumnerH

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It means he thinks the Pats winning 6 times out of 10 instead of 5 is a big enough difference that we should have a semantic argument over this game being a coinflip or not.

I think the people you were responding to in your post were the ones picking Pats by 10 or saying "barring something totally crazy, we can't lose." Which implies like 75 or 80 percent win equity.
More like 95% or even higher. Hitting 1 out of 5 odds isn't "totally crazy" by any reasonable standard.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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More like 95% or even higher. Hitting 1 out of 5 odds isn't "totally crazy" by any reasonable standard.
But even since this conversation it's sprung up.

"Only possible way I see the Patriots losing is if Tom Brady doesn't get time."

Whatever. We're the bestest.
 

DebSox

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ok boys,I
just replayed the SB49. Brady had 2 HORRIBLE pics at the worst possible points in the game. If he does this again, this is a toss up. We still won against Seattle, but that game should have been sown away way before the "circus catch". Count me in at another nail biter 3 pointer. GO Ghost.
 

yecul

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The Pats should win due to a comparable offense (ATL is a bit better) but a stronger D with special teams being good both sides. This is a close on in my book and could go either way. I like the Pats. I think they win. I think it's close. However, if ATL wins by up to a TD it wouldn't surprise me. The biggest surprise in this game would be ATL winning by 7+. Everything else is in play, IMO.
 

dynomite

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ok boys,I
just replayed the SB49. Brady had 2 HORRIBLE pics at the worst possible points in the game. If he does this again, this is a toss up. We still won against Seattle, but that game should have been sown away way before the "circus catch". Count me in at another nail biter 3 pointer. GO Ghost.
Well, to be fair the 2014 Seahawks defense was one of the elite units of this young century (they were 1st in points allowed, yards allowed, and DVOA that season). Those were not great throws by Brady, but that defense was great, and has nothing to do with the 2016 Falcons defense he'll be facing next week (beyond some familiar schemes from Quinn).
 

Ed Hillel

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The second INT wasn't really that bad. The throw was slightly off, but it was a really good play by the best Linebacker in football on third down. The first INT was absolutely awful, but may have been a net positive since Lane got hurt and his replacement got abused. Brady made up for those in the 4th.
 

koufax32

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Since it's been mentioned a few times, when was the last time Brady mostly stayed clean and NE didn't win?

IIRC SEA hit him pretty often.
In MIA.last year? Before that?