Hot take--who's gonna win and by how much?

Winner and spread


  • Total voters
    258
  • Poll closed .

snowmanny

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Dec 8, 2005
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Avril got hurt.

Also Brady getting the ball out in two seconds seemed to defeat the purpose of a pass rush.
 

DebSox

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Jul 14, 2005
68
My point in all of this is even when we had an HOF offense like 2007, the game that will not be mentioned, it came down to inches because Brady wasn't as mobile( remember he was in a boot cast the week before that Superbowl) and the OL was exposed. And let's give credit to the Giants pass rush on an awesome performance. Do I think that Atlanta can replicate this? NO. But we have seen all the recent SB's with the PATS. None have been easy. Atlanta's defense does not stack up to ours. Our ST beats all other teams. HANDS DOWN . Our coaching staff is worlds above any other teams preparation. But again, it is a game of inches....first downs, moving the chains, keeping the other team on the sidelines, NO MISTAKES, head's up, adapting to the situation, FOCUS, and just DO YOUR JOB.
 

Ed Hillel

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Dec 12, 2007
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Signs this week are strong. First Shannon Sharpe fawning to Brady and now Bart Hubbuch...

FIRED?

 
Mar 26, 2014
45
I don't see anyone talking about the fact that every X-factor benefits NE. Coaching, special teams, experience, and QB experience (I think this deserves its own category, particularly with the vast difference between a 7-timer and a 1st-timer) off the top of my head. If any of these things makes a difference in the game it is very likely to benefit NE. Add this to the fact that NE is the better team and I'm not getting the "coin flip" talk.

Also, Atlanta simply needs their defense to play great. I don't think there's any way they win if they don't. NE, meanwhile, has a bit more leeway. If their defense plays great then I think it's a blowout, and only a terrible defensive game gives them no chance.

I think most people, especially the media, are falling into a trap of assuming that Atlanta plays perfectly while allowing for NE's performance to run the gamut.

While this game could go any way I expect it to be a two-score game late in NE's favor. Atlanta could score with 2 minutes left to bring it within 1 score but I don't expect them to have the ball with a chance to win. So lets say it ends as a 7 point game.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Mar 5, 2007
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No one on Atlanta's vaunted offense has ever played in the Super Bowl. Tom Brady has played in more SB's than all of the Falcons combined. Lots of other key Pats on both sides of the ball have SB experience (of course).

BB and TFB and their "do your job" crew are coming to Houston. The Falcons will score some points, but unless they can somehow come up with an all-world rush, the Pats are going to rock and/or roll.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Jul 15, 2005
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No one on Atlanta's vaunted offense has ever played in the Super Bowl. Tom Brady has played in more SB's than all of the Falcons combined. Lots of other key Pats on both sides of the ball have SB experience (of course).

BB and TFB and their "do your job" crew are coming to Houston. The Falcons will score some points, but unless they can somehow come up with an all-world rush, the Pats are going to rock and/or roll.
I think the experience plays into their hands early in the game. This reason plus the longer halftime says to me Bill will take the ball if given a chance, try to get a double digit lead early while Ryan and Co shake off nerves then make them sit with a longer than normal halftime and come out cold again.
 

Ed Hillel

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Falcons 37-24.

Tom Brady has a "Bad Brady" Postseason game. Has two costly picks that Atlanta gobbles up 10 points converting. Brady still puts in a few TD's to make the stat line look good, but game is over with 8 minutes left in the 4th.
What if I told you Joe Vellano was on Atlanta's active roster for this game?
 

wiffleballhero

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Mar 28, 2009
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In the simulacrum
It is fine that we -- a bunch of people with no tackling responsibilities -- are confident.

But KFP is sort of correct. This is a coin flip. There seem to me to be three outcomes:
Pats blow out.
Pats in a tight one.
Falcons in a tight one (high score).


Falcons blow out is unlikely because their D is not good enough to really create the blow out.
Falcons in a low scoring game is also unlikely since, again, the Pats could put up 21 in a good quarter against them.

All of that said, I totally can see the Pats losing. Sure. Atlanta can score and they can control the clock, so the Pats might be fucked from the get-go.

I see panther super bowl. Sort of nothing in first half and then all hell breaks loose. Pats 41-falcons 35
]

You might get the final score right, but no way the first half is 'nothing' or even nip-and-tuck.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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Barring some truly bizarre events in this game (Brady throwing 4 picks.... two special teams TDs for one team, a rash of injuries to key people, etc.), I see the range next Sunday basically being this:

Atlanta winning by a touchdown at most..... to ...... the Patriots winning by 17 points.

In other words, I think New England could blow Atlanta out, but I don't think (again, barring crazy stuff happening) Atlanta can blow New England out. But Atlanta absolutely can win this game, and it doesn't take a crazy scenario for THAT to happen. Generating a turnover or two against the Patriots is totally possible - a pick and, say, a strip sack, or whatever. Matt Ryan could totally get in a groove and go off. The Pats' D could have trouble getting off the field. Etc.

If Atlanta wins, it's going to be close. If New England wins, it could be either close or fairly lopsided.


Turnovers in the Pats' previous six Super Bowls:

- vs. StL: StL 3, NE 0
- vs. Car: Car 1, NE 1
- vs. Phi: Phi 4, NE 1
- vs. NYG: NYG 1, NE 1
- vs. NYG: NYG 0, NE 1
- vs. Sea: Sea 1, NE 2

TOT: Opp 10, NE 6

The Pats are 3-0 in SBs when they win the turnover battle.
The Pats are 0-1 in SBs when they are tied in the turnovers.
The Pats are 1-1 in SBs when they lose the turnover battle.
 

heavyde050

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Nov 17, 2006
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I picked Pats 3-6. I think the Pats will have a lead in the game of more than 10, but I see a late score by the Falcons keeping the game within a touchdown.
Plus, the Pats always seem to play close Super Bowls (at least the BB and Brady led Pats do).
I could see the Pats winning by 14 and I could see the Falcons pulling an upset, but I think I am most confident in a Pats win in a close game.
 

Leather

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Jul 18, 2005
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Jesus just once out of seven times you'd think we could get the Pats in a laugher, just so we could sit back and enjoy it for once.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Mar 5, 2007
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It would be awesome to enjoy the halftime show of a Pats SB for once. Let's have a "haha for Gaga" this year!

Oh wait, it's Lady Gaga...
 

Ed Hillel

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Dec 12, 2007
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Who's the no-name for Atlanta who makes the miracle catch at the end? I'm thinking that second Tight End. Maybe Joe Vellano.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Nov 11, 2006
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BaseballJones said:
Turnovers in the Pats' previous six Super Bowls:

- vs. StL: StL 3, NE 0
- vs. Car: Car 1, NE 1
- vs. Phi: Phi 4, NE 1
- vs. NYG: NYG 1, NE 1
- vs. NYG: NYG 0, NE 1
- vs. Sea: Sea 1, NE 2

TOT: Opp 10, NE 6

The Pats are 3-0 in SBs when they win the turnover battle.
The Pats are 0-1 in SBs when they are tied in the turnovers.
The Pats are 1-1 in SBs when they lose the turnover battle.
Dude, think you've got a bit of a counting problem. I have 2-0 / 1-1 / 1-1 for the 3 categories.

No mistakes in our posts this late in the season, people. Do Your Job!
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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Dude, think you've got a bit of a counting problem. I have 2-0 / 1-1 / 1-1 for the 3 categories.

No mistakes in our posts this late in the season, people. Do Your Job!
You are right, my bad. So they don't lose SBs with a + turnover margin, and are 50/50 to win in any other situation.

Thanks for the correction.
 

Dehere

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Apr 25, 2010
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Think both offenses move the ball pretty easily between the 20s and it comes down to red zone efficiency. ATL D worst in the league in the red zone. NE D pretty good and seemingly getting better. I thought the AFCC turned on the stop of PIT on 1st and goal after the overturned TD call.

Pats force a couple FG tries in the red zone, win and cover. NE by high single digits.
 

Kull

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Nov 1, 2005
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They play the games because unpredictable things happen (turnovers, injuries, weird catches), but I expect a familiar pattern here, something we've seen a lot of in the second half of the season. Pats get the lead and build on it, while the Falcon answers don't include enough TDs. As the lead widens, the Atlanta offense starts taking chances, turnovers happen, blowout ensues.

Unless the Atlanta defense can somehow shut down all elements of the Pats offense, there's nothing which stops that scenario from unfolding. Especially on the other side of the ball where the Pats field a defense crafted specifically to reduce points at the expense of yards. Pats 14+
 

bankshot1

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Feb 12, 2003
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where I was last at
I just hope the Pats don't have the over-confidence I have right now..

If luck gets evenly distributed and is not a factor, I don't see Atlanta's D stopping the Pats on a more frequent basis than I imagine the Pats D stopping Atlanta's O.

GB pissed away 10 points in the NFCCG and played that game with basically no running game and healthy receivers, and once they fell behind they had to pass. One dimensional football is not a good way to win. So I take that game with a grain of salt The Pats O is a lot better than GBs..And they are mostly healthy.

I think the Pats can stop the run, (the Mack injury/health is a factor), the passing attack may be contained, the backs out of the backfield is a concern, but that's where the Pats ability to tackle hard and quick and limit YAC helps a lot .

IMO 8 of 10 games the Pats win this game by at least 10.

Pats 37
Falcons 20
 

Dollar

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May 5, 2006
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I just woke up from a dream with the time winding down and the score was 40-20 Pats, so I'll go ahead and assume that I'm clairvoyant and go with that.
 

Brand Name

make hers mark
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Dope
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Oct 6, 2010
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The Land of Thomas Cecil
31-27 Pats.
Same here. I feel like this is going to feel quite a bit like a higher scoring version of SB39, where a lead is pretty steady throughout, because of strong defensive line play, and smart throws to running backs, but just can't put them away on the scoreboard. They'll try to make a comeback of it late, but come up a little bit short.
 

eustis22

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Nov 14, 2016
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When I close my eyes, I see this thing, a sign. I see this score in bright blue neon lights with a purple outline. And this score is so bright and so sharp that the sign — it just blows up because the score is so powerful: Pats 33, Falcons 17
 

TomTerrific

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Jul 15, 2005
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I'm going Pats 34, Falcons 21

What came to me in my dreams a few days ago was a Lombardi ceremony in which Goodell hands the trophy to Kraft, and says, "Here's your shine box!". Kraft slaps the trophy down while Belichick comes from behind and stands Goodell up so Kraft can lay haymaker after haymaker on his jaw. Brady stands at the top of the stairs, holding back NFL security.

I can't get the vision of Kraft and Belichick teaming up to curb stomp Goodell out of my head. This game can't come soon enough.
 

Super Nomario

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When I close my eyes, I see this thing, a sign. I see this score in bright blue neon lights with a purple outline. And this score is so bright and so sharp that the sign — it just blows up because the score is so powerful: Pats 33, Falcons 17
I think Heaven has sent you here, eustis22. I think the angels have blessed us all because of you.
 

Ed Hillel

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I actually had a dream last week about this game. Pats won 8-5 on a last-second FG that one of Atlanta's two defenders, who bounced on a backyard trampoline, just barely missed blocking. Score was 2-2 at half fwiw.
 

Oppo

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Apr 5, 2009
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Adding to the nonsensical.

Dreamt Big Ben drove ATL to the 5 on the opening drive before being injured and replaced by Dan Marino. Late in the 4th Pats up 14, draw play to Hogan, who fumbles 10 yards downfield. Fumble overturned by some obscure rule. Jimmy and Jacoby each see playing time and the Pats win 34-20.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Nov 11, 2006
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You are right, my bad. So they don't lose SBs with a + turnover margin, and are 50/50 to win in any other situation.

Thanks for the correction.
Quick update ...
Now 2-0 / 1-1 / 2-1:
Turnovers in the Pats' previous six Super Bowls:
  • vs StL: StL 3, NE 0
  • vs Car: Car 1, NE 1
  • vs Phi: Phi 4, NE 1
  • vs NYG: NYG 1, NE 1
  • vs NYG: NYG 0, NE 1
  • vs Sea: Sea 1, NE 2
  • vs Atl: Atl 1, NE 2

    TOT: Opp 11, NE 8
Winning the TO battle is soooo overrated! ;)