How About Joe Kelly?

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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Looks more like someone that just needs more starting experience and more coaching and will suddenly turn the corner and into a legit no. 2....  much more valuable than a closer, espcially under team control for another 4 years.  If he's slotted in to the rotation as a "no. 4" he'll be fine, and better than the average "no. 4".  
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Rudy Pemberton said:
Kelly has a 4.81 FIP, 5 BB/9, and a 1.3 K/BB ratio. He looked really good yesterday, but it was an Orioles team resting most of it's starters and getting ready for the post-season. His relative success with the Sox is being driven by a .220 BABIP (25% lower than his career rate).
 
The walk rate is a bit out of career context, though (highest previous ML walk rate 3.2), and could just indicate an adjustment period to the new league.
 
I don't know if he's got #2 potential, but he seems like he could certainly be a solid mid-rotation type who provides 175-200 average-ish innings. A guy like that who's 26 and cost-controlled is a nice puzzle piece to build around.
 

TomRicardo

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Rudy Pemberton said:
Kelly has a 4.81 FIP, 5 BB/9, and a 1.3 K/BB ratio. He looked really good yesterday, but it was an Orioles team resting most of it's starters and getting ready for the post-season. His relative success with the Sox is being driven by a .220 BABIP (25% lower than his career rate).

Don't get me wrong; I'm intrigued and think he'll help next year's team in some kind of role but with is peripherals and relative inability to miss bats (7% swinging strike rate) I'm not sure I'm ready to see him as a #2 or a closer.
 
I would have him on the back half of my rotation next year and smile.
 
Kelly's pitch is his sinker.  When he is getting ground balls, he is effective.  He needs to get more control but he could very well become Derek Lowe type starter without the rampant alcoholism.
 
Edit - People are surprised by a sinker ball pitching have low sing and miss rates?  I mean he is trying to get contact. 
 

HomeRunBaker

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Of all the problems with the Boston Red Sox heading into 2015 I'd have to believe Joe Kelly is near the bottom of that list. He's shown to be pretty consistent which is what you want from your #3 or 4 guy.

To me the question isn't Kelly himself but the surrounding pieces to the rotation. I kinda group Kelly and Buchholz together (yin to yang and all that) for the purpose of "slotting" them in the rotation. If you go into ST with this duo as your 2/3 I have major concerns as you then have more volatility at the 2 backend slots. However as your 3/4 you have a presumably rock solid 1/2 and only one of the RDLR/Webster/Wright/Barnes/Owens in the rotation.
 

MakMan44

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What's your point Rudy? I'm not sure what you're trying to say. 
 
EDIT: I ask because I thought the consensus has been the Red Sox are going into the offseason looking for at least 2 SP acquisitions. 
 

TomRicardo

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Rudy Pemberton said:
Just trying to confirm that they probably need 2 guys better than anyone they have; Lester and Scherzer seem to be a clear step above any of the others available, not surprisingly. Santana, McCarthy, and Shields all very good; Masterson not really any better than what they have. Just curious as to whether the opinions are that it's imperative to land one of the two available "aces"?

That being said, really doesn't have much to do with Joe Kelly, who I think we all seem to agree is in the mix for next year's rotation and probably slots in as the #4 behind X, X, Buchholz, and ahead of RDLR.
 
Rudy do you understand why FIP might not be the best tool in a discussion about Kelly?
 

Pozo the Clown

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Sep 13, 2006
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FWIW, during yesterday's Oriole's TV broadcast, Jim Palmer repeatedly lauded Kelly's stuff and more than once stated that he believes this will turn out to be one of the Sox better trades (there was no mention of Allen Craig in this context, just Lackey).
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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He was fantastic today and only had his line made worse than it really was due to Craig's horrible defense at first and Farrell's usual slow hook. 26 years old and seems to be the new Derek Lowe. I'm excited for his future here.
 
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