I don't think anyone's arguing it's the only way to win. But having a pipeline of cost controlled young talent certainly makes it easier to consistently contend year to year. That is arguably the goal for most teams, no?
How long will Chaim last?
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I agree. I was responding to a post that said it's the only way to win. He even said “you win with young talent, period.”
I think it's the only way to win consistently, over a long period of time.
Any random 25 dudes can get lucky and compete in a given year. (Aside from the 2023 A's).
That was hyperbole. I also said that winning through FA is highly reliant on guessing right (i.e., it's within the range of possible outcomes).
Was Bloom smarter when the strategy worked in 2021? Or just luckier?
Sorry... I don't think so. They're not at peak levels but they're still generating profit and there's lots of fans still going and paying premium prices. There may be a limit on sustaining a .500 quality team. The rabid fanbase on SoSH isn't exactly representative of the general people going to games. And the rabid fanbase that's pissed off will jump quickly back on if this team does make it to the playoffs somehow, I don't think the Henry profit will take a dip at all. Or especially if the team is actually good and young next season. The core is there.
It seems that we are sort of witnessing a repeat of last year, where the Red Sox came into the season with a roster that kind of relied on health and guys having career years to be competitive -- and then it kind of fell apart spectacularly:
2021 -- Sox get great pitching performances out of everybody but Sale and career years out of guys like Hernandez and Renfroe. Most important of all they stayed healthy. And they almost pulled it off.
2022 -- Sox more or less tried to run it back and after stumbling at the start, looked great until everybody gets hurt in and the wheels fall off around July.
2023 -- Sox seemed to be firing on all cylinders in May until they run in to a perfect storm of Jansen blowing two saves, the horrible West Coast road trip where the offense dried up and Sale going down. Now, the defense--never a strength of this team--is completely falling apart and the effort is sagging.
In some ways Bloom's tenure thus far feels like Ben Cherington's tenure albeit without the WS victory: 1) an initial burst of success followed by 2) lots of player development, 3) some questionable deals for major league talent (or at least deals that didn't work out) and 4) poor performance overall.
I get not paying Xander a boatload of money for a dozen years. What I'm a little less sure about is whether relying on guys to stay healthy and play to their ceiling is sustainable in a division where all four competitors are putting real lineups on the field. I look at a guy like Kike who was just terrific down the stretch in 2021. The problem isn't that we have him on the team -- it's that we're kind of relying on a glue guy to be one of the key leaders.
Similarly, I also wonder whether psychologically this approach opens them up for long dips in the quality of their play because all the guys start playing a little tight, knowing that they have to play at their best for the team just to keep up.
I'm not 100% sure what it means for Bloom. I actually like this collection of players and can appreciate the desire not just to sign everybody at the biggest dollar figure. But it seems hard to compete consistently. And that inability to go from development to competing was ultimately what did Cherington in.
2021 -- Sox get great pitching performances out of everybody but Sale and career years out of guys like Hernandez and Renfroe. Most important of all they stayed healthy. And they almost pulled it off.
2022 -- Sox more or less tried to run it back and after stumbling at the start, looked great until everybody gets hurt in and the wheels fall off around July.
2023 -- Sox seemed to be firing on all cylinders in May until they run in to a perfect storm of Jansen blowing two saves, the horrible West Coast road trip where the offense dried up and Sale going down. Now, the defense--never a strength of this team--is completely falling apart and the effort is sagging.
In some ways Bloom's tenure thus far feels like Ben Cherington's tenure albeit without the WS victory: 1) an initial burst of success followed by 2) lots of player development, 3) some questionable deals for major league talent (or at least deals that didn't work out) and 4) poor performance overall.
I get not paying Xander a boatload of money for a dozen years. What I'm a little less sure about is whether relying on guys to stay healthy and play to their ceiling is sustainable in a division where all four competitors are putting real lineups on the field. I look at a guy like Kike who was just terrific down the stretch in 2021. The problem isn't that we have him on the team -- it's that we're kind of relying on a glue guy to be one of the key leaders.
Similarly, I also wonder whether psychologically this approach opens them up for long dips in the quality of their play because all the guys start playing a little tight, knowing that they have to play at their best for the team just to keep up.
I'm not 100% sure what it means for Bloom. I actually like this collection of players and can appreciate the desire not just to sign everybody at the biggest dollar figure. But it seems hard to compete consistently. And that inability to go from development to competing was ultimately what did Cherington in.
Since Bloom took over, the Sox have a .503 winning percentage. That's quite literally middle of the pack (9th out of the 15 AL teams) since 2020. Right between Chicago and Minnesota. In what world does that qualify as "years of shit"? Mediocre, sure. But we're playing .500 ball while rebuilding the team's pipeline of young talent. It could be a hell of a lot worse.
IMO people go to games for reasons that have nothing to do with how good the team is. There will always be a draw due to the brand. And of course the park will be filled if they are good. People love a winner.
I just don't see this "core" and "true window" in 2024.
Last place in 3 out of 4 years. It's not 100% fair due to the division, of course.
It's also the perspective that they haven't put together a roster that anyone objectively thought was a true contender in any of the years. I know they made it within 2 games of the WS in 2021, and we have seen similar teams win titles like in 2013. But he's yet to put together a roster on paper that anyone thought was one of the top 5-8 teams in baseball heading into the year.
I've made the argument that Henry has put together a good enough brand for the Red Sox and Fenway that it will be a sustaining profit making machine, regardless of how awesome the team is as long as it's "competitive". I suspect that he crunched some numbers and realized that the money spent over X amount (not Xander "X" obviously) on players doesn't generate a profit amount in a higher ratio to money spent. He found a good formula for most years and then WILL spend to boost the team into a playoff and WS contender once in a while going forward after all the lower costing players are lined up in a specific way. Good for him. Might not be ideal for those that are more regular fans.
Where’s the pitching, though? The team is one of the worst at the league in run prevention and there doesn’t appear to be much in the way of pitching help In the near future coming from within. So, they need to identify pitching from outside the org and acquire it- TB has done this really well, the Sox just haven’t.
Average Attendance for Red Sox since 2010:
2023: 31,257
2022: 32,408
2021: 21,300 (COVID)
2020: n/a (COVID)
2019: 36,106
2018: 35,747
2017: 36,020
2016: 36,486
2015: 35,565
2014: 36,494
2013: 34,979
2012: 37,567
2011: 37,703
2010: 37,610
It's clear in the numbers that this team's fans have lost interest and this franchise is in need of a "draw", whether that be a winning team (not likely anytime soon), a prized FA, or some farm graduate excitement (probably 1-2 years away from that).
Right, obviously "on paper" doesn't really get you anywhere. The point is more that he hasn't put together a roster that anyone would consider to be a legitimate contender in his 4 years at the helm. I'm willing to give him 2024. If they're still an 80-something win team next year, I'm probably done with him.
Edit: also, the Mets won 101 games last year, or put differently, more than the Sox have won in all but one of my almost 42 on this earth
If that is the new approach, it sucks and it stinks.
But what does that do? Appease the writers? The fan base? Take a look at any of the preseason rankings from this year - BR for example.
- Houston - currently fighting for a wildcard.
- Braves - 1st in division, .613 WP.
- Mets - spent a shitload of money. Currently sporting a losing record, not even in the playoff picture.
- Yankees - currently fighting for a wildcard (although with a .578 WP, thanks AL E).
- Padres - same as the Mets.
- Phillies - Losing record.
- Dodgers - currently fighting for a wildcard.
- Blue Jays - currently fighting for a wildcard (although with a .563 WP, thanks AL E).
Bello looks legit. Houck and Whitlock less so, but they're not nothing. Drohan might be something. I don't disagree that we haven't exactly modeled the Tampa Bay pitching development machine. Very few teams do. But having cheap, cost-controlled talent elsewhere on the roster (shortstop, outfield, first base, catcher, etc.) allows them to sign talent in free agency or trade for talent without killing the future of the franchise. There are a lot ways to dice it.
"Fighting for a wild card" is moving goalposts. Those teams are all on pace for 90+ wins. Houston was 36-24 as of 3 days ago, a 97 win pace. They lost 3 in a row.
The Mets won 101 games last year. The Pads and Phillies won 89 and 87 games respectively last year. There was legit reason for optimism for both. They're both sitting with very similar records as the Sox. Would you care to wager that both finish significantly better than the Sox?
I'd love to have the same record as Houston, the Braves, the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Blue Jays. Where do I sign up?
I posted upthread with general numbers, but this effectively a 15% decrease from pre-COVID normal from 2010-2019. That is a material decline and is 100% hurting revenues in a material manner. If theyre way out of it at the end of July, the numbers will get worse.
At an average ticket price of over $60, this equates to ~$20M in reduced revenue per season.
Can we pivot the conversation for a minute? Why don't we have a development machine like Tampa's? Isn't that why we hired Bloom from them? The Yankees seem to be trying some new things coaching wise and spending where their financial largesse can still be an advantage. What are the Sox doing?
Simple answer -- it takes time.
The Rays also regularly trade players approaching FA for young, cost controlled talent, which gives them more bites at the apple.
Just because I wanted a baseline, average MLB attendance is down compared to 2019, but only ~5%.
(-10% from the average of 2010-2019)
| Year | G | Attendance | Attend/G |
| 2023 | 939 | 25,229,866 | 26,868 |
| 2022 | 2430 | 64,556,658 | 26,566 |
| 2021 | 2429 | 45,304,109 | 18,651 |
| 2020 | 898 | ||
| 2019 | 2429 | 68,506,896 | 28,203 |
| 2018 | 2431 | 69,671,272 | 28,659 |
| 2017 | 2430 | 72,678,797 | 29,908 |
| 2016 | 2428 | 73,159,044 | 30,131 |
| 2015 | 2429 | 73,719,340 | 30,349 |
| 2014 | 2430 | 73,739,622 | 30,345 |
| 2013 | 2431 | 74,027,037 | 30,451 |
| 2012 | 2430 | 74,859,268 | 30,806 |
| 2011 | 2429 | 73,425,667 | 30,228 |
| 2010 | 2430 | 73,061,763 | 30,066 |
edit: added average for the decade.
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Should Bloom really get any longer than his two predecessors did, though?
Look at the pitching staff, and what’s available in AA and AAA. Why haven’t they Sox been able to build a staff like other teams have? Why are they cycling through a ton of pitchers with no apparent strategy?
The only teams to give up more runs per game than the Sox are the Royals and A’s. Seeing the success of all the pitchers who have left the Sox kind of makes one wonder what’s going on here.
I think some would argue that Chaim is making some headway on that front and that it takes time. Not sure I'd call it a "machine" but there is some material improvement with Chaim guys like Yorke, Drohan, Jordan, Meidroth, Mayer, etc. reaching "interesting" status. My larger concern is with the pitching staff, both in the majors and minors. Where are the impact arms coming from? We have so few of them and seemingly less than basically everybody else. Feels like every week the Guardians are bringing up another stud pitching prospect and they haven't even brought up Gavin Williams yet. Why can't we get some semblance of pitching development going in this organization?
Yeah, I don’t get the sense that attending baseball games is nearly as popular as it was 10-20 years ago, for a variety of reasons, in a lot of markets. The Mets and Yankees don’t seem to get the crowds they used to, either.
His predecessors had different mandates. Cherington built up a pretty good farm system/pipeline that he never got to see come to fruition because he was squeezed out by the hiring of Dombrowski. Dombrowski didn't really succeed in maintaining the pipeline (perhaps in part due to failings at the end of Cherington's tenure) and wasn't given much of a chance to rebuild it.
I suspect the hope with Bloom is to repeat the successes of the two tenures without experiencing the dry spell they've had since roughly Devers' call-up (2018-2022ish). That arguably may require longer than either of his predecessors was given.
Just wanted to point out that Wacha and Eovaldi are a combined 14-4, 2.67 ERA in 148.1 IP over 24 starts (nearly 6.1 IP per start).
Seems to me the 2023 Red Sox might be pretty good if they had that kind of performance at the top of the rotation.
Seems to me the 2023 Red Sox might be pretty good if they had that kind of performance at the top of the rotation.
I'll add, how do we know what we have or don't have? Isn't Whitlock a prime example of developing a guy from that "just-off-the-40" pack of players that the Rays pick over? I feel like we have gotten a few interesting stories of how they have worked with pitchers to tweak their stuff the way all smart teams do now.
43 year old Rich Hill? Eovaldi is 33. Wacha is 32. Apples and hand grenades.
This x100. Bloom isn't a one-man show. It's I don't even know how many dozens of scouts and other functionaries running around Latin America and the Carribean and Japan and Korea. It's about building relationships on the ground that can give you an advantage when some super talented kid is available to sign. Or so we are told. Flipping GMs every five years seems antithetical to building the networks that lead to real, sustained success. If you really are rebuilding and looking for organizational advantages, you have to tune out all of the people playing yesterday's results on social media.
Often injured Eovoldi and inconsistent Wacha?
or did you know they’d be good, if so I pledge loyalty to your predictions forward
Hill has also been way better than Kluber. As has Matt Strahm. Hell, Strahm has a higher bWAR than every pitcher on the Sox.
I am not paid multi millions of dollars to make these decisions. It doesn't matter whether I predicted it. It is Bloom's job to make good decisions. His decisions on Wacha, Eovaldi, and JDM all look pretty fucking bad on June 9.
If you have a multi million dollar salaried guy that makes these decisions correctly all the time then I’ve got your back
Obviously process matters, but at the end of the day,
Was his decision on Wacha correct? Seemingly no.
Was his decision on Eovaldi correct? Seemingly no.
Was his decision on JDM correct? Seemingly no.
Process may be 3 for 3. Outcome is 0 for 3. At some point that matters.
Was his decision on Yoshida correct?
etc.
I am done with this game. Feel free to reply here or PM
etc.
I am done with this game. Feel free to reply here or PM
Wacha and Eovaldi signed muti-year contracts. They've each made 12 starts. Multi-year contracts can't be judged on 12 starts. Or at least, not accurately
https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/prospects/red-sox-reportedly-pulled-offer-for-nathan-eovaldi-after-spending-elsewhere-scott7
The sox offered Nate a larger contract at the start of the offseason. He/his agent turned it down thinking he could get a larger offer on the market.
So. Try again. He and his agent severely miscalculated the FA pitching market. not sure how you blame the SOX front office for that.
The decision on JD was absolutely correct, regardless of how he's hitting this year. With Casas breaking in at first, they needed a DH who could take the field sometime. The roster doesn't have room for a DH-only player.
The Sox have built a team that is terrible at preventing runs. Where is it acceptable to direct our ire?
And yet, everyone kills the front office for losing out of 60 games of Mookie Betts.
Maybe keep the offer on the table for the entire offseason and not bite off your nose to spite your face?
I don't even know what this means, but I still love the Mookie trade and will reserve judgment on Wacha and Eovaldi because we don't know anything yet.
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