How many wins do we need from today (8/13/21) to get into the playoffs?

How many wins?

  • 24-26

    Votes: 14 13.5%
  • 27-29

    Votes: 58 55.8%
  • 30-32

    Votes: 31 29.8%
  • 33+

    Votes: 1 1.0%

  • Total voters
    104
  • Poll closed .

budcrew08

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Sox are 66-51, the fifth best record in the league. They are 2 games up on the MFY for the last spot. How many wins do we need to keep that spot or get better and reach the postseason?
 

JimD

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I voted 30-32 - I think .500 ball gets them there. Not sure how confident I am in that happening, though ...
 

NYCSox

chris hansen of goats
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Y'all are wayyyy too optimistic. The MFYs have been sucking out games with a bunch of refuse pitchers. At some point real pitchers like Severino and Kluber are coming back.
 

RIrooter09

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Jul 31, 2008
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Y'all are wayyyy too optimistic. The MFYs have been sucking out games with a bunch of refuse pitchers. At some point real pitchers like Severino and Kluber are coming back.
I don't think they can play at this unsustainable pace even with those guys returning. Who knows how they'll perform coming off injuries anyway?
 

NYCSox

chris hansen of goats
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Yeah 96 wins is the absolute minimum so they need to go +30-15

24 games against dead teams - Rangers, O's, Twins, Nats and Indians. Clean up on those and we can talk.
 

bankshot1

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Using the generally inconsistent and arbitrary, Bankshot, "How many hard games the rest of the schedule does everyone have eye-ball test" it looks like of the 5 teams in the WC chase (Sox, MFY, BJs, As, Mariners) the Sox seem to have the easist remaining schedule with (if I counted consistently) 20 tough games versus for example the MFY with about 27. Having said that, they'll probably piss away this series against the Os.

There's a lot of menage a teams iterations with 5 teams, but to be safe, win them all, or at least get to 94.
 
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mfried

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Nov 23, 2005
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At the beginning of the season I predicted 88 wins, and all of my friends labeled me pollyannish in the extreme. I stick to that prediction, and hope (against hope) that gets them the 2nd wild card.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
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96 wins is the minimum? Toronto is 62-52. They are the most talented of the WC contenders (OAK, TOR, NYY, BOS), but betting on them to go 34-14 to finish is bold.

The A's are hot right now but they ought to cool off, they aren't that good... I think three of the four of the WC contenders will end up in the low 90s, one high 80s.
 

grimshaw

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My prediction is something like this:

Tampa 97 wins
Sox 91
Jays 89
Mariners 89
Yanks 88
A's 86

The Mariners are no joke and still have 16 games vs the Royals, Rangers and D-Backs.

FWIW fangraphs has it:

Tampa 95
A's 92
Sox 92
Yanks 90
Jays 90
Mariners 83
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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My prediction is something like this:

Tampa 97 wins
Sox 91
Jays 89
Mariners 89
Yanks 88
A's 86

The Mariners are no joke and still have 16 games vs the Royals, Rangers and D-Backs.

FWIW fangraphs has it:

Tampa 95
A's 92
Sox 92
Yanks 90
Jays 90
Mariners 83
I’m guessing you’re leaving out division winners Houston and Chicago…. This is exactly what I think we’ll see (Fangraphs). If the WC teams tie, what’s the process for which team gets home field?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I’m guessing you’re leaving out division winners Houston and Chicago…. This is exactly what I think we’ll see (Fangraphs). If the WC teams tie, what’s the process for which team gets home field?
Without doing any digging, I believe the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. After that, it's some other split (division record, interleague record, something like that).
 

A Bad Man

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Dec 12, 2016
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This is a good reference for remaining schedule strength. Sox have one of the easiest remaining (.482); the A's, one of the toughest (.526).

MFY (.497), Devil Rays (.491), and Toronto (.485) all have more difficult schedules than the Sox. Of course, this is based solely on opponents' winning percentage.
 

NYCSox

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MFYs about to win the series vs ChiSox. One Halos game and four Twins games (so an easy sweep) next week sandwiched around the Sox series.

96 is required. No question about it. Oh and not losing a series to the MFYs would help too.
 

grimshaw

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MFYs about to win the series vs ChiSox. One Halos game and four Twins games (so an easy sweep) next week sandwiched around the Sox series.

96 is required. No question about it. Oh and not losing a series to the MFYs would help too.
They'd have to go .695 the rest of the way to do that, or 14 losses.
They still have 25 of their 43 games against the Sox, Rays, Jays, Braves and Mets. I just can't see them doing that.
 

cantor44

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I think it'll take 93 wins to get in ...Looking over the As schedule - it's tough.
Which had me realizing ...something MLB will love, but will be more anxiety producing than it's worth for me: Red Sox-Yankees WC game ....That's my guess right now what we'll see saving any wave of injuries to either team ...Yanks/Sox single game elimination ...1978 Redux ....
 

Max Power

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Jul 20, 2005
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If there isn't a single reliable arm left in the bullpen, there's no chance this team can make the playoffs. They'll bludgeon the bad teams and lose close games to good teams along the way to a .500 record the rest of the way. That will put them at 90 wins and 3 games back of the second wild card.
 

cantor44

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If there isn't a single reliable arm left in the bullpen, there's no chance this team can make the playoffs. They'll bludgeon the bad teams and lose close games to good teams along the way to a .500 record the rest of the way. That will put them at 90 wins and 3 games back of the second wild card.
Oy, after losing both games of doubleheader you may be right. I was suckered by the wins against an abjectly horrible Orioles team into thinking they were righting the ship. So naive.
 

grimshaw

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Since the poll:

The Rays are 14-3

-They have locked it up, though their final 30 games are rough.

The Yanks are 13-4

-They won 13 in a row and now have lost 4 in a row. Weathering the COVID storm really helped, and they are due some production from their acquisitions. Their schedule is relatively easy, with the hardest stretch the last 9 vs the Blue Jays, Sox and Rays. Fangraphs has them at 94 wins.

The M's are 9-7

-They basically held serve when they needed a lot more. It didn't help dropping 3 of 4 to the Royals, but they were 4-1 vs the Jays and A's. They have 14 remaining games against the A's, Sox and Stros so will have to play way above their heads to have a chance. Fangraphs has them at 84 wins.

The Sox are 9-8
-Thanks to them going 9-3 against the softies, the 0-5 vs the Yanks and Rays could have made things disastrous. They had a few brutal late inning pen meltdowns by Barnes and company but stole one with Arauz. The schedule is feast or famine the rest of the way with 9 vs the O's and Nats, and 14 vs playoff contenders. Fangraphs has them at 92 wins (no change from 17 games ago) and the 2nd WC spot. This isn't taking into account COVID, so things should stay tight with the A's.

The Jays are 7-10
-Tough to tell why they aren't winning more with the roster they have, but the hole may be too deep and they coughed up too many losses to crappy teams over the stretch. They have 8 left vs the O's and all 7 vs the Twins, so could pull off 11+ wins there. They aren't dead yet, but they need to do some damage in the 13 remaining vs the Yanks and Rays. Fangraphs has them at 87 wins.

The A's are 5-11
-Despite the bad run, they are still right there. It turns out that when you have 13 games straight vs the iron, you can lose ground and look bad. The remaining road still makes things hard, since they have no head to head vs the Sox or Yankees and 19 against the Astros, White Sox, Jays and Mariners. Fangraphs has them at 88 games.

TL/DR. Unlike others who think they won't win another game against a good team, I still think the Sox squeak by into WC2. The kids gloves are being taken off Sale and he he should get 7 more starts because of all the off days. Losing the struggling pitchers could be a blessing in disguise, especially with roster expansion giving us a look at potential upgrades, but no one can replace X and Kike. I think that costs them another two games but still up (barely) vs the trailers.
 
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cantor44

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I think it'll take 93 wins to get in ...Looking over the As schedule - it's tough.
Which had me realizing ...something MLB will love, but will be more anxiety producing than it's worth for me: Red Sox-Yankees WC game ....That's my guess right now what we'll see saving any wave of injuries to either team ...Yanks/Sox single game elimination ...1978 Redux ....
Okay, not a stretch of a prognostication, but I did call 93 wins and a Red Sox -Yankees WC on August 15!