They have about $15 million to spend to stay under the tax (I might be slightly off on that number). There is significant long term value in not paying tax this year, Rozier and Morris are both likely gone next year, and Smart and Baynes shouldn't cost more than $20 million combined.
It isn't as much about the money this year so long as we remain under the tax as it is about the years. I don't know if I go two on Baynes but I certainly don't go 3.
They can't really overpay Baynes on a 1+1 because the max they can give him is the midlevel exception. I don't think that would be an overpay big enough to be worth giving up years if that's what he wants.
They'd be able to run those bigger teams off the floor for the most part, and if you just need an extra body to bang for 15 mins/night against those teams, that can be found cheaply.
This is where our disconnect of his value comes into play. A one-year MLE to an 18 mph guy whose role will be greatly reduced upon Hayward's return is the overpay I was referring to. The value to this deal would be more in the offseason where he can be part of a larger package than what he would bring in his limited role next year.
Why would you try and go cheap for that role when you have a guy you already know can handle it very well for a bit more?
I don't think Baynes role will be vastly reduced with Hayward back, Morris role probably will.
Plus, as we learned in the playoffs, Baynes might be one of the better Embiid defenders in the league. I could certainly see it happening for that reason.
Holmes is coming back. So they are spending their MLE for a bench piece to back up Embiid, when they already have that?
We have no idea, it's still kinda early. But I'll throw out some possibilities that make sense to me.
How much is a 34 year-old Redick really going to get? Last year’s deal was an anomaly. I think they could easily fit in both and more with their current cap space if they don’t land a big fish.
Brad has already said that if not for Hayward's injury we would have gone as of exclusively small all season. If you take him at his word there isn't much of a role for Baynes in a role that Williams can be looked at until the deadline. There is no reason to pay Baynes absurd backup money for minimal impact.
went to 18/19 offseason thread to talk Baynes
If it's "a bit more", the Celtics of course will do it. Everyone here would do Baynes on his conctract from last year in a heartbeat. When the numbers go higher though, the repeater tax becomes an issue.
The only catch here is that Hayward and Kyrie will both likely be eased in, and Horford is probably going to be even more on the "Playoff Al" plan (reduced regular season minutes and practices). I suppose the best option if they want to go small all the time is probably to say "f it", and just throw Theis out there to bang all year for heavier minutes, since he probably won't be back in 2019-2020, and thus they don't really have to worry about his longterm health.
Baynes won't get absurd money, if he does, move on to the next big. There are other centers (Cousins will get a big deal) out there.
If they were planning on going exclusively small last season, then why did they sign Baynes in the first place? They must've thought they needed him, right? So why wouldn't they need him now, even if they were planning on going exclusively small again? They'd need him less after he played well for them and they had the top defense in the league? It just doesn't make sense to me that they'd now go with just Theis and a late first round pick to add to Horford at the five. I don't understand why they'd want to play so many minutes with Horford taking a pounding at the five, and I guess Tatum having to defend PFs. It makes sense to me to close games with Horford-Tatum at the 4 and 5, seems like a bad idea for them to pile up a lot of minutes all year long that way.
This list of guys blocking Baynes is wild.
Yeah this is why I don't expect us to sign anyone if we lose Baynes. Run with Williams in spot minutes then address at the deadline if necessary.
My point is you can only commit so many $$$ to a 4/5 that can't shoot a 3. In a league that is going athletic and small, wings are well bid. Centers are not in demand, there seems to be plenty available. A team can only budget so much for the 4/5 non-shooters. Hence Powell at 9M, a rebuilding Mavs can't start adding a 31yr old Aron Baynes at MLE, they'd be better off adding young wings that can shoot.
This doesn't matter.
This is true. Amir got $11m last year, Patrick Patterson 3/$16m, Alan Willliams 3/$17m, Dedmon 2/$14, Nene's corpse even got 3/$11m. Sure the position has been deemphasized but if someone gives Baynes a 3rd year at similar dollars matching the years is an awful play imo. He simply is not that important to our success moving forward.
I don't think Dwight Powell stinks. But you can only have so much salary cap tied up on bigs that can't hit the 3. Luckily for the Celtics, Danny has shrewdly signed an incredibly cheap but effective Theis. Plus picked up Williams late in the first, which also makes him very cheap.
Cuban has a track record of overpaying marginal bigs and assuming Noel doesn't return they only have Dwight Powell masquerading at the 5.
A lot of those signings took place in a different era, game has changed, which you know.
Agreed, but I wonder how much Carlisle and Cousins would potentially clash after Boogie signs a big/long-term deal. That has to go into the equation.
His quickness on defense is good enough that if his 3-ball is at all real, he's worth real money. Dallas giving him a large 1+1 would make a lot of sense for them if they want to make the playoffs, and would be hard for him to turn down imo.
I think they’re far more likely to make a play for DeMarcus Cousins than a 31 year old part time player. And I’d think that a younger guy with upside like Alex Len would be higher on their wish list given their overall age.
If Baynes would take 3/16 Patterson got, I give that to him in a heartbeat.
Their first option is probably firing a big offer sheet at Capela. Houston very likely matches, but nothing to lose there and at worst locks in Capela at a big number for the Rockets.
Turning down 4/$70M wasn't the best idea ever. I'm not sure who's advising him, but he probably needs new people. That's a lot of money left on the table for someone, as you said, who can't play on offense.
I'm intrigued, but like many of the replies in the comments, I do not follow the logic.
Sure do hope it happens.
