One side of the draw is the best division winner vs the winner of the top two wild cards, the other side is the second division winner vs the winner of the third division winner vs the third wild card. To me (and what VORP meant) is that the road to the ALCS seems much easier from the 6 spot than the 4 or 5, even given the home field advantage that the 4 will get initially.
The WC winner will also face the MFY. So you’d avoid ALL other AL East teams until the ALCS. There is basically zero argument for WC 1 or 2 as better position to WC 3.
But it's worth noting that aiming for WC3 isn't something you'd ever try to do. If another club is within a handful of games, you never know if you might have a freak losing jag, etc.
I think there were a couple of games postponed due to a CoVid outbreak within the team.
If Toronto and Tampa have their spots locked in by then they won't be playing their full A lineups, they'd care way more about being healthy with a set rotation for the playoffs than knocking the Sox out of the other side of the bracket. If it's close enough where the Sox could potentially pass one of them for WC2 then it could be really interesting if the teams try to "out tank" each other to get the easier side.
Suddenly, 16 vs NYY seems less like a death sentence and more like an opportunity. It's still only June. We're comin'
Seriously? I guess YMMV, but I feel this past two weeks has seen the best stretch of total team hitting that we have seen all season. It seems that everyone has been getting in on the act. The 1-6 spots in the lineup has finally shown to be as good if not better than we expected them to be and the 7-9 slots are no longer 3 automatic outs. Vaz is hitting .277, Franchy has a new found discipline at the plate that sees him on base more and JBJ has been on one of his productive streaks. I guess you might point to the overall BA's of a couple of guys, but that doesn't really speak to "half of the lineup STILL not hitting.
Your post in the Franchy thread tells me that my observations do not hold up to the numbers you've presented. Thanks for the your efforts.
Dalbec has had a rough few weeks, but he was a league average hitter in May and has been a league average hitter in June. He's been adequate for almost 2 months now.
Fair. I just have a vendetta against him because I have an irrational love for Franchy. OPS+ of 102 in May and 99 in June, though, so really everyone other than JBJ has been hitting
Yeah JBJ makes no sense
At least JBJ is hitting at Fenway, where his defense is especially important. (777 OPS vs 375 away; about 110 PAs for each).
2022 stats
His home/away splits are wild. 112 wRC+ at home, 10 away. Partially because he has a .354 BABIP at home vs. .182 away, but a lot of that is because he has dramatically different batted ball profiles. He hits way more line drives and way fewer ground balls at home, and hits the ball harder much more often. Is that just SSS noise? Or is there some other reason for that?
Been ok since. To be fair, I said half the lineup wasn't hitting but adjustments were being made. Verdugo returning to form and Cordero, Refsnyder and Duran producing with Dalbec being league average since May, there aren't as many holes and it's possible there's no real reason to upgrade the offense once everyone is healthy. There are 6 lineup spots producing at an average to above average level. 7 would be more to my liking, 8 is being greedy.
At some point, not having half of our pitching staff and our top SPs is gonna bite us. Starting this week, probably.
I mean, they went 2-4 against the Cubs and Jays, with the two wins coming in extras after the bullpen blew the first save opportunity. In the case of the Toronto win, the bullpen still nearly gave up a three-run lead. They dominated Tampa yesterday at home, but I think we're already seeing some recently-patched cracks opening back up. And while the Duran issue will be a non-factor next time they go north, there are still three arms on their staff, one of whom is the guy who threw a shutout yesterday, who won't be going with them, barring a sudden change of mind or reversal of restrictions. If anyone thinks that final series in Toronto won't be pivotal, I'd be surprised.
Pivotal for what, do you think? For a spot in the playoffs? For standings/seedings?
If this team is going to, against all odds, contend for a playoff spot, then it will be both. Of course, if they fall off the pace, it'll just just another series as they're playing out the string.
The glass half full of that is that when Sale, Eovaldi and Paxton get back, we might just have a strong pitching staff.
Yeah, I don't think their contending for a playoff spot is against all odds. In fact, I'm pretty sure it isn't against any odds.
Seriously.
Thank you for this. The Red Sox aren't lucky to have 45 wins right now. They're right where they ought to be, on pace for 90-91 wins, in the mix with a bunch of other good but flawed teams. I think because we so closely follow the Red Sox, we have a tendency to be myopic about the league in general.
You have to admit, thought, it is pretty odd
"Siri, what does 'against all odds' mean?"
I'd hope that they would also bitch about how the team plays well during the regular season but folds in the playoffs.
