How to improve the WR position
- Thread starter BaseballJones
- Start date
If you're looking at trade candidates who might be cheaper (acquisition cost) than expected for salary reasons....
I wouldn't be surprised to see Keenan Allen go for a low price. Injury issues age 30, they have another pricey WR, and moving him saves LAC $16M in cap space.
Receiving team would be on the hook for:
$19M (partial guarantee)
$23.1M (all non-guaranteed)
Assume he would be asked to re-structure/extend
I wouldn't be surprised to see Keenan Allen go for a low price. Injury issues age 30, they have another pricey WR, and moving him saves LAC $16M in cap space.
Receiving team would be on the hook for:
$19M (partial guarantee)
$23.1M (all non-guaranteed)
Assume he would be asked to re-structure/extend
Supposedly they didn't have a great relationship, but we should kick the tires on him and Tee Higgins.
Bengals ain't trading Tee Higgins--at least not to NE.
I don't think Hopkins is worth our one and I don't think you'll get him for a two--it's a catasrophic cap and PR hits fro Arizona--but for a two, I think i'd do it.
I think Meyers is a perfectly good and dependable slot receiver but he's playing on a team that could really use a dependable outside option. Maybe they can find that guy through a trade (Evans? Cooks?) because the draft and FA looks barren for that type of receiver, but the problem is that Meyers is gonna get paid and then all of the sudden you're using ~$30M+ of your cap space on two WRs while still needing (at least 1) starting OT, a McCourty replacement, and corner to replace Jonathan Jones. Meyers' only competition for top dog is Juju and maybe Lazard. Christian Kirk got 4/$72M last year and Kirk's production in his walk-year was pretty similar to Meyers'. That deal looks solid in hindsight because Kirk had a big breakout in year 1, but does anyone really see Meyers doing that? Signing Meyers ~$15M+ per year for more of the same doesn't seem like the best use of cap space.
Perhaps the offense improves enough by simply running it back under BOB with Meyers and Parker + by replacing Agholor's production with Bourne and 2nd year Tyquan. But maybe moving on from Meyers at his price tag and drafting Jordan Addison to replace him is the better move. You get a higher ceiling, quicker receiver in the slot and still have enough cap space if someone like Evans becomes available.
Perhaps the offense improves enough by simply running it back under BOB with Meyers and Parker + by replacing Agholor's production with Bourne and 2nd year Tyquan. But maybe moving on from Meyers at his price tag and drafting Jordan Addison to replace him is the better move. You get a higher ceiling, quicker receiver in the slot and still have enough cap space if someone like Evans becomes available.
I'm wondering if we are overestimating what Meyers is going to get on the open market. While he's been productive in an offense that hasn't always been productive, how much of that is due to him being one of the only reliable targets? I get that cuts both ways because if he is the only guy that is good then he gets double teamed and it's harder to produce, but his measurables aren't super high on the NFL scale. I kind of think of it akin to the "all star" in the NBA who scored 25 ppg on an awful team because someone needs to take the shots and score the points. Maybe this is a bad comparison, and maybe it's unfair of me. But the crazy WR market may not be there for Meyers.
Edit: I see the Christian Kirk comp - Kirk was a 2nd round pick who ran a 4.47 vs. Meyers 4.63. Just one example of the measurables difference.
Edit: I see the Christian Kirk comp - Kirk was a 2nd round pick who ran a 4.47 vs. Meyers 4.63. Just one example of the measurables difference.
Is anyone at the point where you look at a list of draft prospects and you just go, pick me the highest-rated SEC guy and I will take my chances? After seeing N'keal Harry picked before AJ Brown, and DK Metcalf, I may be scarred for life.
I don't think they'll trade him, but if they do I wouldn't be surprised if NE is a partner provided they're in the ballpark compensation-wise. The teams don't play next year (and aren't scheduled for sure until 2025), and BB and the Brown family have an excellent relationship.
If they decide that they can't afford him he might absolutely be on the market--they can't lose him for nothing.
They'd also be giving up a year of him in a Super Bowl window where there's no chance the compensation will be as valuable next year. There's a pretty good chance his marginal value next year + 2025 compensatory third is greater than the return they'd get. Considering the Brown family needs to be blown away to move someone, I just don't see it happening.
If using that approach, that would be Jalin Hyatt from the list above. Good size and great speed. But my eye wanders to Rashee Rice.
I mean they could--pick up the 3rd round comp pick and frankly his free agent contract is likely to be an overpay, and it might make sense to do that and have the Chase-Higgins WR for 2023 and take another crack at a SB rather than trading him a year early.
I think the far more likely result though is that they overpay him on a front-loaded contract and let other free agents (Jonah Williams Logan Wilson etc) go because they're the bengals and they tend to keep their well known skill position players.
I'm not trying to plot out all of the Bengals future moves here, but Higgins has been mentioned a few places as a guy that could potentially be moved. The Patriots absolutely should call and see and if he is, go for it. That's all this thread is about.
I'm just saying I wouldn't buy any green bananas. He plays for an organization notoriously averse to moving pieces who also happen to be square in the middle of a Super Bowl window.
Higgins is a nice player but the Patriots need to think bigger….Chase.
Tyquan Thornton and a 4th should get it done…
I'll backtrack a little - I give it a very slim chance since Higgins is repped by David Mulugheta, the same agent (and Watson's) whom they were never close on for two years of negotiations with Bates. Of course, they never entertained trading Bates even though they've known for a year and a half there's zero chance he'll be a Bengal in two months.
None of the mock drafts I've seen have a WR going in the top 10. Which means it's highly likely that whichever WR is #1 on the Pat's draft board will be available at 14. At worst, #2. Lots of other teams have had success pairing a great young WR with their young QB. That's what I'd do.
I wish I had a better answer for you. Right now I am waist-deep in OT and IOL tape. Doing about 60-65 guys there. The good news is I have plenty of ideas for day 3. The bad news is I have only done one WR, Zay Flowers. I like Zay a lot. Personally I see him as a day 2 pick and probably a top 50 player.
If Bill doesn't mind that he's a slender build and not that tall? Sure. Then again Bill doesn't usually go for slot guys early and I don't think Flowers plays outside. If I pushed the magic buttons I would consider taking him early. The odd thing with him is he doesn't run a lot of choice/option routes. That's more a function of BC's offense though I think but to be fair I do not know much about them.So probably on the Patriots first round board you are saying?
Edit: to clarify I think he COULD run really good option routes but BC's offense doesn't run a lot of slot choice/option routes with him.
From your lips to God's ears. That would be a great addition.
As would a few of those OTs that you're analyzing right now (I cannot wait to read that).
I want a draft pick. On some of the other options posted:
- Hopkins is old. Unless you can get him for dirt cheap - no thanks
- Meyers is okay, but he's going to cost too much
- OBJ? Is it 2015? He's both too old and too injured (and too dramatic)
- Cooks? Seriously?
Why do you guys want so many guys over 30?
I wish they traded for Hockenson since he was available. The list of WR who are good past 32 or so is extremely limited, and there's no reason to think two guys who excessively rely on their speed will do it, especially since they both have team chemistry issues.
Looking at the list of top receivers last year - it seems pretty clear that you need to pay a premium for it.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/receiving.htm
Maybe they could call up Washington and see if McLaurin is available for a reasonable price since they won't be competitive any time soon. Tee Higgins is about be expensive for Cincinnati, maybe he's available. All the same, I'd prefer them just spend the first on it unless they think they can get a top tier front 7 guy on defense. Someone like Quentin Johnston.
- Hopkins is old. Unless you can get him for dirt cheap - no thanks
- Meyers is okay, but he's going to cost too much
- OBJ? Is it 2015? He's both too old and too injured (and too dramatic)
- Cooks? Seriously?
Why do you guys want so many guys over 30?
I wish they traded for Hockenson since he was available. The list of WR who are good past 32 or so is extremely limited, and there's no reason to think two guys who excessively rely on their speed will do it, especially since they both have team chemistry issues.
Looking at the list of top receivers last year - it seems pretty clear that you need to pay a premium for it.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/receiving.htm
Maybe they could call up Washington and see if McLaurin is available for a reasonable price since they won't be competitive any time soon. Tee Higgins is about be expensive for Cincinnati, maybe he's available. All the same, I'd prefer them just spend the first on it unless they think they can get a top tier front 7 guy on defense. Someone like Quentin Johnston.
The production is good from Flowers but he has a lot of red flags as well. He is one of the oldest WR prospects in the draft, same age as Garret Wilson and Chris Olave. Historically older WR prospects not named Cooper Kupp have a low hit rate. Size is an obvious concern and playing at BC isn't the same as the SEC/Big 10. If we are looking at smaller slot WRs I think I'd rather take a shot on Marvin Mims Jr. who will probably be drafted right around Flowers possibly later and is 18 mos younger with similar athletic profile coming out of Oklahoma.
Well, Cooks anyway is still good. And he's still just 29, believe it or not. He's not an elite #1 WR, but he's still pretty darned good.
I'm going to assume the reason we only had Cooks for one year is that he wasn't a great fit for the team. Understood that BOB and Josh aren't the same, but they sure did seem to ship him out pretty fast.
He's had a weird career. Everywhere he's been, he's been good. But he's been...a lot of places.
3 years in New Orleans, where he had two seasons with more than 1,100 yards and 8 TD receiving.
1 year in New England, where he had 1,082 yards receiving and 7 TD.
2 years with the Rams, one of which he had 1,204 yards receiving and averaged 15.1 yards per catch.
3 years in Houston, where he's had two years of 1,000 or more yards receiving. And this past year he "only" had 699 but he missed 4 games and likely would have had another 1,000 yard season
I mean, it's bizarre. He's a good receiver everywhere he's been. So why has he been so many places?
Production is a part of it but I am more of a traits slut when I scout. I also take an analytics approach with the big board and with individual prospects. That's a broad term but for example I don't consider OL as tackles if they have shorter arms than 32.75 inches and even then 33 inches is usually my hard cutoff. I don't want to draft a tight end without an 8+ RAS in rounds 1-early 3. I believe that positional value is huge early in the draft but also that don't take a round 3 edge in round 1 because of positional value. With Zay the traits are there. He is an excellent route runner. He has good hands. Great RAC. Very good speed. Shifty. Hip sink is there. Age is a concern as is route tree. Competition level is fine tbh - it isn't the SEC but it's still a solid P5 conference.
Quick edit: 11% drop rate to me is not a reflection of his catch technique but mental errors.
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He was also literally the entire BC offense. Basically got Tyreek Hill attention each and every week. I can’t wait to see him go somewhere where he can just be another guy against single coverage.
Do you think Addison is a slot only guy? His route running impressed me the most of the receivers I've looked at and I think he's quick enough and has the releases to be moved around a lot and play outside too.
Edit: Waldman has a nice video breaking down one of his routes:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip-tSIU84iU
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It's definitely weird. I never understood why we dumped so quickly after his first year here. I've never read that he's trouble or a bad teammate.
He was entering the final year of his rookie deal, and it was clear that the Pats were not going to pay him in free agency. So they decided to take the draft pick instead. He puts up good numbers but he is not considered a play that moves the needle very much.
Maybe - apologies I haven't done a deep dive on him yet. I will get to WRs probably after OL.
That's my guy! I think he can play outside plenty for the Pats but could also move around (a little like a slighly bigger Deion Branch) and he was definitely my Pats binkie at 14.
That is until I saw Devon Witherspoon...
This is the guy I'm watching for at the combine.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQQd9JO8qyA
I'm an unabashed SEC guy when it comes to going skill position, particularly at WR, and this guy is the next one out of Ole Miss, after AJ Brown/Elijah Moore/DK Metcalf. The thing he doesn't have compared to those guys is production, but part of that is because he was playing behind those guys, and this season, their QB situation was a mess. He's got the size and then some. Question for me is can he get down into the low 4.4's or high 4.3's for the combine. I think his lack of production moves him down to late 2nd/3rd round pick, which is good, as I don't see BB using the 14th on someone unless maybe Johnston slips there.
I also like Hiatt as well, but he gives me weird John Ross vibes for some reason.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQQd9JO8qyA
I'm an unabashed SEC guy when it comes to going skill position, particularly at WR, and this guy is the next one out of Ole Miss, after AJ Brown/Elijah Moore/DK Metcalf. The thing he doesn't have compared to those guys is production, but part of that is because he was playing behind those guys, and this season, their QB situation was a mess. He's got the size and then some. Question for me is can he get down into the low 4.4's or high 4.3's for the combine. I think his lack of production moves him down to late 2nd/3rd round pick, which is good, as I don't see BB using the 14th on someone unless maybe Johnston slips there.
I also like Hiatt as well, but he gives me weird John Ross vibes for some reason.
Yep basically that, they got a full year out of him, AND got essentially all the value back they traded for him, while not paying him 4/81 like the Rams were willing to.
On top of that, they got back Edelman (missed the Cooks year) and added Josh Gordon by moving from the 5th to the 7th. Seemed like less a case of not liking him, than getting great value for him rather than paying a big contract, then getting another value WR with upside to replace him.
I want Hopkins and the 1st round draft pick. #1 WR for the next 2-3 years, then the rookie takes the reins.
Did you know the name Jonathan Mingo is just the southern pronunciation of N'Keal Harry? Lot of sloppy footwork and contested catches from the big guy...
EDIT: Ugh say his track times and he ran 11.97 in the 100m as a senior which is not good for an NFL prospect (N"Keal Harry was an 11.40 as a junior, not superb but a heck of a lot better).
SECOND EDIT: My guy Jordan Addison, 10.85/22.56 in high school as a junior which is moving pretty good.
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Mingo is certainly intriguing good size power combo like you said. I've seen him compared to Deebo and he is supposed to be a strong run blocker which Bill values. Interesting draft at the WR position as there might not be a true Alpha #1 but a lot of #2/3 types depending on what you need. Much less consensus among the top 8-10 than you typically see though that could change after the combine.
Patriots need a quick guy to work the middle and sidelines, shake coverage fast, get open and catch the ball. Anyone like Edelman, Welker, Branch, Tro would be fine with me.
edit: clarity
edit: clarity
At 14 you're likely looking at higher quality corners, edges, defensive tackles, maybe OTs vs WRs on the board. Feels like 2019 where there are guys who you want at the end of the first or in the 2nd and third round. I think there is a glaring need for two offensive tackles, a starting slot corner if they don't like Marcus Jones there, and a number 1 shut down outside corner with size. They might also want an elite IDL or edge. You can find those guys at 14. You aren't going to find them later on (probably). Let's see what they do in FA. I also don't know how I feel about most of the WRs or any other position but OL so far minus the top 4-5 tight ends.
Quick edit: you can probably find a starting slot corner later on. But a true number 1 type not so much. Not usually.
Quick edit: you can probably find a starting slot corner later on. But a true number 1 type not so much. Not usually.
Clear cuts are all bad players, but maybe some can't be traded and get cut from the list below:
Clear cuts... Robbie Anderson, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Kenny Golladay, Braxton Berrios.
Maybe traded, Maybe Cut: Robert Woods, Corey Davis, Adam Theilen, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen
Titans can cut Robert Woods and save $12M with only $2.6M cap charge so he’s definitely a candidate.
They will also definitely cut Taylor Lewan for $14M in savings against zero cap. I know he’s been injured a ton recently but… finding guys who can play LT competently is really hard. If you can squeeze another year or two out of Lewan and move Brown back to his preferred RT spot, then you don’t necessarily have to use the #14 pick to throw a rookie into the mix right away in a very big year for Mac and the offense. You could take a developmental tackle later or draft one in ‘24, use #14 for a #1 corner or WR, etc.
They will also definitely cut Taylor Lewan for $14M in savings against zero cap. I know he’s been injured a ton recently but… finding guys who can play LT competently is really hard. If you can squeeze another year or two out of Lewan and move Brown back to his preferred RT spot, then you don’t necessarily have to use the #14 pick to throw a rookie into the mix right away in a very big year for Mac and the offense. You could take a developmental tackle later or draft one in ‘24, use #14 for a #1 corner or WR, etc.
Lewan co-hosts a podcast on Barstool with Will Compton. He might see signing with the Patriots as a detriment to the side gig.
BUF can save a little over 2M by cutting Isaiah McKenzie who had 42/420 yds and 4 TDs in 15GP as the 4th option in BUF. They have Shakhir ready to take his place so I think he is serious cut candidate. He is entering his age 28 season so could be a decent 2yr option at low $$.
When Brady bolts, Tampa will probably look to rebuild and trade or cut Evans.