How will the Sox do in 2020?

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I scanned the threads looking for something like this but couldn't find it....
I'm seeing this season as a "welllllllllll.... maybe things will break right and we'll be in the thick of the race and could possibly make a mid-season deal to address the glaring weakness (SP, duh!) but likely not".

Pick your win total... I'm going with 79-85, with the Sox staying competitive-ish but clearly lacking something (SP, duh!), and rather than buying, they cut their losses and deal JDM, Workman and other parts.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I said 84-90. (Interesting that your options overlap. They could win 84 or 85 and we'd both be right. Was that on purpose?)

Fangraphs has them at 84-78, and I figure as a fan I should not be less hopeful than that neutral forecast. They're going to score a lot of runs. Their bullpen will be OK. Given the starting pitching situation, I think for them to top 90 wins they'll need Morgan Magic-level good luck, but the upper 80s seems like rational optimism.

 

[BaseballJones]

The Sox surprise and win 90 games. Sale, once he gets going, ends up having a good year. EdRo proves to be, once again, a really good SP. They piece together the rest. The bullpen is surprisingly good. The offense puts up a ton of runs. Verdugo ends up hitting .300 with 20 homers. Devers and X take a little step back (in their otherwise upward moving careers) but still produce. Benintendi has a career year. Downs comes up midway through the season and provides offensive spark. The Sox are in the WC hunt til the very end.

 

[donutogre]

Picked 79-84, but I'm thinking the higher end of that. Could easily end up 85 or 86, but I think the pitching is just way too compromised to get them much over .500.

 

[grimshaw]

I'm going with 81-81. Unless they figure out openers and/or bullpen games twice a week, I just can't see how the rotation keeps them competitive against good teams much less functional all season. There is no depth at all in the upper minors, so a few injuries may not even bring up replacement level talent.

I like what Bloom has done with his moves so far, but know that requires a step or two back.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

91 providing health. I think a few players surprise us.

 

[bankshot1]

I'm in camp 85 with some upside depending upon Sale and the health of the MFY starters.

 

[Earthbound64]

I'm tentatively optimistic and said 89-95.

 

[Oppo]

Why is there such weird overlap in the options???
<80
79-85
84-90
89-95
94-99

 

[ifmanis5]

Fangraphs has it right and if anything I'd hedge lower.

 

[CreedBratton]

I’ll be stunned if they win more then 80.

 

[OCD SS]

It’s the start of spring, baseball’s here, I’m going to be optimistic; looking for 90-95

 

[Salem's Lot]

I’ll be stunned if they win more then 80.

This is were I’m at. Sale is already pushed back a couple of weeks and we can’t count on Eovaldi staying healthy. After that it’s Rodriguez and a bunch of journeyman openers and mediocre middle relievers. Oh and they just traded their best offensive player and are going into the season with an interim manager. This has all the makings of a 90+ loss team.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

They’ve got a lot of talent on the roster still, but I think they’re going to get rolled by the Yankees and Rays all year long, and finish well under .500

I’m still not sure where I am. The Betts trade still feels like the last straw for me, and I’m just not interested in watching any games this year. Part of me even hopes ratings/attendance tanks hard this season to send ownership a message.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

92 wins. Still a lot of talent. Very good manager.
Let the games begin.

 

[Wallball Tingle]

93 and hosting the WC game. There's talent on this roster.

 

[BaseballJones]

92 wins. Still a lot of talent. Very good manager.
Let the games begin.

A ton of talent.

Three .300/30/100 guys, two of whom are young (JD, Devers, X).
Other exciting young players with a lot of talent (Verdugo, Benintendi, Vazquez).
Three power-hitting prospects that could make an impact this year (Dalbec, Chavis, Downs).

There's pitching holes for sure, but it's not like this team is bereft of talent. They have three of the best hitters in baseball.

 

[nattysez]

My expectation is that the decent bullpen arms are toast by June and Sale continues his steady decline.

We will at some point start debating whether to have Eovaldi serve as an opener twice each time through the rotation rather than having him get lit up in the fifth every start.

They've already ruined my summah - .500 sounds about right.

 

[75cent bleacher seat]

I'm in with 84-90 and that's being highly optimistic....My big question is Sale's health...of which I'm sadly doubting

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Good lord.... when I say I'm "bad at numbers" I'm not joking. I should have started the poll low and worked upwards in wins rather than backwards! Do you realize how difficult it is to count backwards!?!??!? It's not.... I'm just that challenged.
Anyhow....
Really thinking around 81 wins- I suspect that they'll be tantalizingly close to competitive with a few stretches during the season where they hold first place, then struggle... but I hope that Bloom can see through the cheese and realize that the roster needs some long term fixing rather than tweaking and he cuts it by mid July- deals Eovaldi, Workman, JBJ and JDM to some teams that will be willing to part with some decent near ready ML talent in order to make a run..... freeing up enough cash to make a serious offer to Mookie after '20. If they're able to pry loose a decent young cost controlled starter from that cluster of guys they could be fully stocked for another long term run in '21. But yeah... next season I fear will be a tease

 

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

Kudos to the true believer at 100+. As OCD said, it’s spring and baseball is here. We should all be overflowing with optimism and good thoughts.

I voted high 80’s. They still have a very good lineup and some decent bullpen pieces. The injuries to the Yankees starters helps a bit.

 

[azsoxpatsfan]

100+

 

[Rovin Romine]

It is, for me, almost too early to ask this question. March 26 games are the first ones to count. We'll know on the 25th who's ready and who isn't for the season.

I'll say, 91 and in the wild card scrum, given only minor injury setbacks. Or, they implode and cellar-dwell from early-on to the end.

One thing that helps is they face Toronto, then Baltimore for the first 7 games. Home opener is against the White Sox for 3, then Tampa for 3. If they dump early games "because we're still figuring things out, marathon, not a sprint" I have little faith in them to roar back at some point later in the season.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

86 wins and in the wild card hunt until the middle of September.

 

[Plympton91]

I put the odds of the Red Sox finishing first at 5% (because even if the Yankees somehow falter, the Rays are stronger too, and Blue Jays don’t suck), chance of finishing second at about 15% (I think even if the Yankees falter, they’ll still finish second), chance of finishing third about 35%, fourth about 40% (I think the Blue Jays are better, marginally), last about 5%.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

2019, the sequel: win total in the 80s, but never really “in it” in any meaningful way. Not even any cool deadline deals.

 

[cornwalls@6]

86-88 wins, in the WC hunt through the deadline, but ultimately fading down the stretch. Think the offense will be good, and be among the leaders in runs scored, even without Mookie. And there are enough options in the pen to be reasonably effective. But everything really hinges on Sale. And I just have zero faith that he can string together a healthy, fairly complete season. Then we’re left with Eddy, an injury prone Eovaldi, and bunch of Jags. Not enough.

 

[Shaky Walton]

I went 79=85 and I fear that I might be overly optimistic with that. The starting pitching has the potential to be hideous. ERod is solid but he's not been a paragon of consistency health wise over his career. What's the over/under on Sale starts? I would say 18 and the under seems quite possible. Eovaldi, outside of the 2018 playoff run, has generally been a guy with great stuff and mediocre results. Perez is the definition of mediocre. While a change of scenery might do him good, there's really little basis to say that he's not what his numbers say he is. Ryan Weber? Another totally mediocre guy that we have very little basis for believing in.

And it's not as if Bloom has assembled (or inherited) a lights out pen who can be counted on to bail the starters out.

I hope I'm wrong and this pitching staff well exceeds my very dim expectations.

Never mind considering how the offense will be affected by losing a spark plug and producer like Mookie Betts.

 

[amRadio]

I went with 85-95. The pessimism on Chris Sale around here is wild, even somewhat delusional. He put up a 3.39 FIP, 1.08 WHIP and a 5.89 K/BB last year. I'll take that type of steady decline any day. I think Sale has a year in line with those numbers and somewhere around 180 IP. If he's strong at the end, this team still has all the talent required to challenge for WC spot and bother the Yankees all year.

 

[pdub]

I don't think we'll make the playoffs, I'm going with about 79 wins. I think the offense will be good but I'm concerned about the rotation and bullpen. We lost a lot of rotation depth and our shaky bullpen went unaddressed, so I think that will bite us in the ass this year. Still, we have the talent to make the playoffs, so let's see...

 

[bosockboy]

91 and host the WC game.

 

[YTF]

This team as currently constructed has it's share of question marks, mostly concerning the pitching staff. There is also the obvious void in right field and the marriage of a new manager and new leadership under Bloom. That said there is talent on this team. I chose 84-90, Looking at the schedule, it won't be easy. They play 54 games total vs. MFY, TB and Toronto. Add to that matchups vs other top AL teams as well as 4 each vs Atlanta and Cincinnati and 3 each vs St. Louis and Cubbies. I see 90 wins as the absolute ceiling and IMO that would be a damn fine season. On the flip side (barring a rash of prolonged health issues) I have to believe that this team at the very least finishes a couple of games over .500.

 

[jon abbey]

They play 54 games total vs. MFY, TB and Toronto.

Just a nitpick, teams play their division 19 times each, not 18.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

I don't think I've been this pessimistic at the start of the season in at least 20 years. We're not quite back to the late Gorman/early Duquette years in terms of the cupboard being bare, but with holes though out the lineup and the pitching staff and little talent in the minors, the glass looks closer to empty than full. Other than JDM, Bogaerts and Devers, it's a roster full of question marks.

I like having low expectations and being pleasantly surprised, but I'm guessing this team is around .500, worse if Sale isn't healthy or if anything happens to our big three hitters.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I don't think I've been this pessimistic at the start of the season in at least 20 years. We're not quite back to the late Gorman/early Duquette years in terms of the cupboard being bare, but with holes though out the lineup and the pitching staff and little talent in the minors, the glass looks closer to empty than full. Other than JDM, Bogaerts and Devers, it's a roster full of question marks.

Here are the differences between this lineup and the one that won 119 games two years ago:

1. A promising young hitter has replaced a superstar.
2. At 2B, Michael Chavis and Jose Peraza will be vying to replace the titanic production of Brock Holt + the corpses of Eduardo Nunez and Ian Kinsler. (Tall order, eh?)
3. Their primary catcher has improved at the plate, while their backup is merely a bad hitter, as opposed to an epochally bad one.
4. They have an actual 4th outfielder.
5. Everybody is two years older, but there will still be only 3 guys over 30 in the likely default lineup, same as in 2018.

The starting pitching and the MLB-ready minor league talent gap--those are legit worries. But there's nothing really wrong with the lineup. It's not as good, of course, without Mookie, but if there are "holes throughout" it, then there were in 2018 as well.

 

[canderson]

I think they finish 82-80.

 

[Coachster]

I think they finish 82-80.

Wow. For you, that's pretty positive.

I'm at 80-82. Sale won't pitch 120 innings. Eovaldi won't pitch 120 innings. Between openers and the middle guys on the AAA express, we're going to give up A LOT of runs. Now granted, we'll score a lot of runs too, but I believe we'll have a career-season for nut-punch losses. I will say I'm already excited for Alex Verdugo because the thought of Kevin Pillar on an every day basis makes me want to puke.

Let's go for .500, baby!

 

[VORP Speed]

93 wins, 2nd WC. Lose a heartbreaker WC game in the Bronx.
Sox will score lots of runs, Sale will do better than expected as his starts are more tightly managed...80-90 pitch outings keep him fresher later in the year. They’ll figure out some opener/bulk guy combos and folks here will be shocked at how effective it is.

 

[nvalvo]

93 wins, 2nd WC. Lose a heartbreaker WC game in the Bronx.
Sox will score lots of runs, Sale will do better than expected as his starts are more tightly managed...80-90 pitch outings keep him fresher later in the year. They’ll figure out some opener/bulk guy combos and folks here will be shocked at how effective it is.

I am also bullish on Tampa Bay.

 

[Mrmojo]

Best and worst case scenarios: a solid 3rd place between Toronto and Tampa.82-85 wins.

 

[simplicio]

I feel like people are overselling the decline in pitching over last year here; outside of Edro, Price and Sale (and Lakins?), just about every starter last year had an ERA north of 5. Doesn't seem like improving substantially on Porcello's 175 innings of home run derby is such an unreasonable possibility. Think I'm on 84-86 wins.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I voted 89-95. It's all down to the pitching. They'll go as far as Sale, Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Perez, and the openers can take them. And if those guys stay healthy, I'm optimistic about how far the team can go.

I'm baffled that anyone thinks the offense is going to be a problem. Unless a couple key guys get hurt and don't play much at all, they've got a fairly potent lineup. They averaged 5.5 runs a game last year and the only significant loss is Betts. I suspect that better seasons from Benintendi and Bradley combined with a reasonably decent season out of Verdugo should make the net loss of Betts rather small.

 

[YTF]

I voted 89-95. It's all down to the pitching. They'll go as far as Sale, Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Perez, and the openers can take them. And if those guys stay healthy, I'm optimistic about how far the team can go.

I'm baffled that anyone thinks the offense is going to be a problem. Unless a couple key guys get hurt and don't play much at all, they've got a fairly potent lineup. They averaged 5.5 runs a game last year and the only significant loss is Betts. I suspect that better seasons from Benintendi and Bradley combined with a reasonably decent season out of Verdugo should make the net loss of Betts rather small.

For me the concern for the offense is A) I think we pretty know what to expect from Bradley. B) I need to see Vazquez replicate what he did last season. And C) We need healthy seasons out of Chavis and Mooreland. If B and C play out in a positive way I think the Sox will be fine. In addition, I think a healthy Lucroy is an offensive plus as is a rebound season out of Peraza and as you mentioned Benintendi. Fingers crossed that the stars align and the majority of this falls the right way.

 

[Cokes311]

Why is there such weird overlap in the options???
<80
79-85
84-90
89-95
94-99

yeah, this threw me a bit too. i was thinking 89 wins but that is included in two different poll options so I just went with the higher one

 

[Traut]

Where are the innings coming from? They have 4 starters. 3 of those starters are oft injured - Sale, EdRo, and Eovaldi. Sale is already on the DL. A crappy rotation puts a lot of stress on a middling bullpen. This team finishes under .500.

You can't win without pitching.

 

[Orel Miraculous]

The rotation is.. troubling to say the least, given Sale’s lack of health, ERod only have just reached his potential once, and no number 5 starter. But I also can’t help but think that (1) they played under their true talent level last year, and (2) the Yankees rotation is kind of complete garbage, too.
This could be a season where the division winner only has around 90 wins, with the Rays, Sox, and Yanks in it all year.

Could be a weird year in the AL all together, with no dominant team and a lot of races. Hopefully Trout and Shoei’s Angels finally break through.

 

[jon abbey]

the Yankees rotation is kind of complete garbage, too.

Anything is possible, but it is decidedly better on paper than last year when they won 103 games and that's even if none of the kids like Schmidt and Deivi break through. They lost Severino but they never really had him last year, they added a top 3 MLB pitcher in Cole, and they got back Montgomery who looks great so far. They should get Paxton back in May and German in June, I might take their rotation 1-10 over anyone else in MLB, even without Severino.

 

[Orel Miraculous]

Anything is possible, but it is decidedly better on paper than last year when they won 103 games and that's even if none of the kids like Schmidt and Deivi break through. They lost Severino but they never really had him last year, they added a top 3 MLB pitcher in Cole, and they got back Montgomery who looks great so far. They should get Paxton back in May and German in June, I might take their rotation 1-10 over anyone else in MLB, even without Severino.

Cole has been a top three MLB pitcher precisely once in his career, and is most likely never going to be as good again. Paxton has been elite once in his career. . . it was three years ago and he’s now an injured 31-year-old. And rather than draw any conclusions from Jordan Montgomery’s 4 innings of spring training, I’m just going to go ahead and laugh at the notion that “Montgomery looks great so far” means anything.

I suppose with the addition Cole then, sure, it’s obviously true that the Yankees rotation looks better on paper than it did last year. But lest we forget, the Yankees significantly outplayed their true talent level last year, too.

 

[simplicio]

Where are the innings coming from? They have 4 starters. 3 of those starters are oft injured - Sale, EdRo, and Eovaldi. Sale is already on the DL. A crappy rotation puts a lot of stress on a middling bullpen. This team finishes under .500.

You can't win without pitching.

Sale's on the IL because he got a late start due to his pneumonia, not because he's injured. And as long as Edro's knee is fully recovered, which has been the case the past 2 seasons, there's no cause to presume poor health from him. I won't presume to know what we'll get from Eovaldi, but my money's on something better than the 67 innings of 6 ERA ball he managed last year.

 

[Cokes311]

fwiw edro sounds really dumb as a nickname

imo