Hunter Renfroe traded to Brewers for JBJ and 2 prospects

joe dokes

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Bloom is a creative guy and he hasn’t even fully begun to flex the financial muscles yet. Fun to watch him work. Wheels always turning.
I start from "I think he's probably good at this GM thing." Once I start there, I *want* the GM to do things that I dont fully understand (or at least have to read through multiple pages of pretty smart folks explaining it). If I understand everything the Sox GM does/did, we're looking at an 81-win team. If its interesting and not clearly asinine, I'm in.
 

BringBackMo

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I dont have any specific problems with the trade as a way to buy prospects (although I have zero confidence in Bradley hitting enough to have more than ~200 PAs), but people keep saying this line that Renfroe just had a career year and I dont understand where it is coming from. His 2021 season is exactly in line of what you would expect if his COVID shortened year in TB never happened. Its almost exactly what he did over his (much longer) SD career.

I'd be pretty confident Renfroe is a ~250/300/500 player wtih an OPS+ of 110 through his arb years.... because thats exactly what he has been through his age 29 year.
Renfroe’s performance last season does seem to have been in line with his 2018 and 2019 seasons. He’s a good value at $3 million. He’s projected to make more than twice that this year and Steamer, FWIW, is projecting a decline this year of a half-win. I think Bloom knew who Renfroe was when he acquired him—a good value at $3 million—and knew who he was when he traded him.46931
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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An important part to acquiring JBJ is that we actually have a backup CF now. Kike was great last year, but Verdugo proved he can't handle it and Duran's biggest issue is his defense. If Kike was to go on the IL, they needed somebody who could actually play defense out there. I expect Bloom to acquire another starting caliber OF leaving JBJ as the backup. Duran probably stays in AAA for now to get consistent at bats and continue working on defense.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Is there any suggestion or evidence that JBJ was acquired to be a backup? I think he’s going to start. He’s the kind of guy that needs regular playing time to be effective, as we’ve seen over the course of his career.

If he’s a backup, what’s the role there? Mostly defensive replacement? Pinch runner? Start in CF once in a while? As a PH, he’s mildly better against RH than Vazquez, but that’s about it.

I think if you acquire him, you play him in CF everyday and hope he reverts to the guy he’s usually been.
 

sean1562

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I believe 65 refers to his 2021 draft ranking, not overall prospect ranking. Still nice to get an extra top 100 guy in the draft year. Big power added between him, Kavadas, and Jordan in 2020.

I also don’t read too much into being 16th in a bad system. Recent picks especially in non-premium positions (outside of real 1st round blue chippers) generally start in the 10-20 range and need to prove it a bit before bouncing guys from the top 10. Nick Yorke, for example.
His MLB prospect profile says he was a potential top 15 pick before his terrible first month last season. Maybe Bloom sees him as a top 15 draft talent? I am going to choose to still be excited about Duran's potential in CF and see this as a trade to get a fan favorite, premium defensive CF backup/insurance policy while also getting a top 15 draft talent and some other guy to help improve the farm system. Obviously, not all the prospects are going to pan out, but 2024 could see a Red Sox lineup that includes Mayer, Yorke, Casas, Binelas, Duran, Downs, Blaze Jordan, and Gilberto Jimenez. Mayer's ceiling is essentially Carlos Correa, right?

For all the handwringing about "turning into the Rays", it is important to remember that the Rays have a development machine. Bloom seems to have a good eye for talent so I will trust his judgement on these players until he proves otherwise. Nick Yorke was a widely derided pick but is now one of our best prospects. We don't see even half the info on these prospects that the Red Sox do.
 

MuellerToldHisTale

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Really interesting move. Looks like we got solid value in the prospects, and I'm hopeful that JBJ's bat can bounce back after we get him back in the lab with Professor JDM.
 

OCD SS

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Looking at JBJ's career through the lens of baseball turning increasingly into a youth game, his career arc matches the trend of players peaking earlier. He's going into his age 32 season after completely falling off a cliff. This trade is the Brewers betting on Refroe having figured something out so that his career year from last year portends stability going forward into his age 30 season, and getting out from under JBJ's dead weight.

Anyone thinking JBJ will do any more than play good OF defense and maybe have a dead cat bounce with the bat is being irrationally optimistic.

Getting strong prospects also plays towards a value model that would prioritize youth, but both of these guys are young enough that we have no way to know if they will pan out (either as MLB players or trade chips).
 

Bleedred

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Really interesting move. Looks like we got solid value in the prospects, and I'm hopeful that JBJ's bat can bounce back after we get him back in the lab with Professor JDM.
Ever the optimist. I find this move very uninteresting. Solid, smart, methodical effort by Chaim to improve organizational depth with the 2 prospects, and the Major League ball club by adding JBJ as the 4th or 5th OF'er. JBJ should not stiff the starting lineup absent injury or a starter needing a rest.
 

Archer1979

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The only thing I worry about with JBJ's defense is that its based on speed. If he starts, his bat is obviously going to be a liability, but I've got to think Chaim and Co. know that already and will try to squeeze out what they can for as long as they can (guessing just 2022).

All this leads me to believe as someone speculated earlier, Kike to 2nd and Schwarber to RF.
 

Archer1979

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Please, no. I don't think he has the body type to move fast and accurately enough to get to all the batted balls out there. I will be amazed if that turns out to be the plan.
It sounded like that both the Sox and Phillies were in on Schwarber. I doubt that the Sox would want to continue the first base experiment from the playoffs which leaves only RF and DH as options. Unless they trade JD, the only realistic spot for Schwarber is RF.
 

RobertsSteal

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Getting the two promising prospects is the most important part of the trade. As for the player swap, Bloom gets rid of a player who most likely would not have matched the production of 2021 in 2022 for a player that greatly improves a flaw of the team which is defense. It also opens up a corner OF spot to acquire a bat like Schwarber or Suzuki. As a big market team, it’s a trade you can pull off without worrying about the money.
Does anyone here know how the lockout impacts the ability to sign an international free agent, like Suzuki? I’d assume that’s also frozen, but maybe there’s a loophole?
 

Bergs

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The only thing I worry about with JBJ's defense is that its based on speed. If he starts, his bat is obviously going to be a liability, but I've got to think Chaim and Co. know that already and will try to squeeze out what they can for as long as they can (guessing just 2022).
iirc, that is not really the case. He gets great reads off the bat and takes great paths to balls (and has a cannon for an arm). I don't think raw speed is really his bag.
 

RedOctober3829

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Does anyone here know how the lockout impacts the ability to sign an international free agent, like Suzuki? I’d assume that’s also frozen, but maybe there’s a loophole?
The window to sign Suzuki has been frozen as well. Since he was posted on 11/22, the clock stops and he'll have 20 days to get signed after the lockout is over. It could impact him coming over this year because spring training in Japan starts on Feb 1 so if he doesn't want to wait around he could just go back to his team.
 

chawson

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We know (numbers and eyeballs) that E.Hernandez is a good CF and, at best, only a decent 2B man. So the defense is potentially a wash if JBJ displaces Hernandez from CF. . .but the offense is almost certainly a downgrade from Hernandez/Arroyo to Hernandez/JBJ.
This could be underselling him a bit. By defensive runs saved, Kiké was +12 in 2019, +9 in 2020 and 0 last year.

I agree that he’s better in center field and figure he stays the primary starter there since that’s a much more valuable position, especially these days, but I don’t think he’s necessarily a liability if the team plugs him in at 2B.
 

Whoop-La White

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It is difficult to ascertain whether Bradley’s drop-off is something from which he can re-emerge when he is already a notoriously streaky hitter to begin with. It could be a bad habit, overcompensating for a new home park, not jelling with the hitting coach. Or this could be the hitter he is now.

At least, with Hernandez on the roster, the Red Sox need not do or die with him, and if Kyle Schwarber likes the idea of playing left field, then this opens up a spot for him that wasn’t there before, with Verdugo moving to right.

I suppose it’s fair to think that Renfroe had reached his ceiling, but I have to admit I loved having an inexpensive 30-HR guy hitting sixth or seventh. But it’s also easy to forget that he was brought in ostensibly as a platoon RH bat who murdered lefties, and was helped into more playing time partly because Cordero was terrible.
 
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Al Zarilla

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It sounded like that both the Sox and Phillies were in on Schwarber. I doubt that the Sox would want to continue the first base experiment from the playoffs which leaves only RF and DH as options. Unless they trade JD, the only realistic spot for Schwarber is RF.
RF at Fenway being maybe the most difficult outfield position to play in the majors, I wouldn't even consider Schwarber a candidate for out there. I would hope that a full spring training at first base would get him to at least reasonable at 1B.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Bradley in CF, Verdugo in RF, Schwarber, Bryant, Castellanos, Joc Pederson or whomever in LF seems optimal to me.

Hernandez at 2B, Arroyo is the utility IF, Duran stays in Worcester. Just need a RH bat off the bench who can ideally backup 1b/of.

If he’s healthy, Jose Martinez looks like a good target who would surely come cheap.
 

mauf

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Looking at JBJ's career through the lens of baseball turning increasingly into a youth game, his career arc matches the trend of players peaking earlier. He's going into his age 32 season after completely falling off a cliff. This trade is the Brewers betting on Refroe having figured something out so that his career year from last year portends stability going forward into his age 30 season, and getting out from under JBJ's dead weight.

Anyone thinking JBJ will do any more than play good OF defense and maybe have a dead cat bounce with the bat is being irrationally optimistic.

Getting strong prospects also plays towards a value model that would prioritize youth, but both of these guys are young enough that we have no way to know if they will pan out (either as MLB players or trade chips).
Agreed. JBJ is a negative asset, even if he isn’t as bad as he was in Milwaukee. CB is selling high on Renfroe and buying two prospects — and incidentally filling the 4th OF role, which needed to be addressed at some point. The rating of the incoming prospects is uninspiring, but I’m open to the possibility that people who work in the game see something that the folks who write for Baseball America or whatever do not.

Nice move by the Brewers. They’ve got a window, so they’re dealing two guys who are a few years away for a cost-controlled guy who they think can help now, plus significant salary relief the next two seasons.
 

RedOctober3829

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Agreed. JBJ is a negative asset, even if he isn’t as bad as he was in Milwaukee. CB is selling high on Renfroe and buying two prospects — and incidentally filling the 4th OF role, which needed to be addressed at some point. The rating of the incoming prospects is uninspiring, but I’m open to the possibility that people who work in the game see something that the folks who write for Baseball America or whatever do not.

Nice move by the Brewers. They’ve got a window, so they’re dealing two guys who are a few years away for a cost-controlled guy who they think can help now, plus significant salary relief the next two seasons.
Binelas is certainly far from uninspiring. I think he's a very intriguing prospect because of his age, power, and seemingly has just started to scratch the surface of how good he can be. Hamilton is less likely to rise up the ranks, but Binelas could.
 

mauf

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Binelas is certainly far from uninspiring. I think he's a very intriguing prospect because of his age, power, and seemingly has just started to scratch the surface of how good he can be. Hamilton is less likely to rise up the ranks, but Binelas could.
I’m just reacting to him not being rated among the top prospects in a bottom-5 farm system. If that’s an accurate assessment, then CB overpaid. It’s entirely possible that the assessment isn’t accurate, which was my point about opinions inside baseball perhaps differing from opinions among writers who follow this stuff.
 

Twilight

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Whose arm is as good as Renfroe's in RF?
JBJ's? Pretty close, anyway. Even if one gives Renfroe a slight edge in arm strength (and certainly his assist total was impressive this past year), I think JBJ is probably a better right fielder than Renfroe overall. Anticipation, first step, hands, situational awareness, baseball IQ, etc. We now have two really good center fielders in Kike and JBJ, and you pretty much need a CF in RF at Fenway. When they're both on the field I think JBJ plays right because he has a better arm than Kike.

Verdugo-Kike-JBJ (L to R) is a really good outfield. I bet we see it a lot, and I think JBJ will play more than a typical fourth outfielder. The '21 Sox were excellent offensively, and even with JBJ in there the '22 Sox should have another strong lineup. I think they'll carry JBJ's bat a fair amount, at least in the first half.
 

BringBackMo

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Is there any suggestion or evidence that JBJ was acquired to be a backup? I think he’s going to start.
Is there any evidence that he wasn't? Is there any evidence of anything right now? There is a lot of off-season yet to unfold. This transaction was doubtless just one part of a a bigger plan, and it's possible that even Bloom won't know for certain what JBJ's ultimate role will be until the dust settles and he learns which additional pieces he's been able to acquire.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Would you pay $17M+ for two prospects like that? I have to think he’s banking on a return to from for JBJ, which seems reasonable enough of a gamble.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Would you pay $17M+ for two prospects like that? I have to think he’s banking on a return to from for JBJ, which seems reasonable enough of a gamble.
You act like $17 mil is a lot to pay for 2 prospects. Tell me how much Moncada signed for again.

100% YES he would pay $17 mil for 2 prospects like that.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Is there any evidence that he wasn't? Is there any evidence of anything right now? There is a lot of off-season yet to unfold. This transaction was doubtless just one part of a a bigger plan, and it's possible that even Bloom won't know for certain what JBJ's ultimate role will be until the dust settles and he learns which additional pieces he's been able to acquire.
I just keep seeing a lot of suggestions that he’ll be the fourth OF which seems like a lot of guessing, considering that there’s really only three OF in the roster. Given his salary, past history in Boston, and abysmal performance as a part timer in the past, I think it’s safer to assume he’s starting but I guess we are all guessing.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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If people look at this transaction in aggregate, it feels like it makes more sense. I haven't seen anyone characterize it as riskless either - if Renfroe continues to produce at or above his current level while JBJ continues to decline and the prospects flame out, that will undoubtedly be a bad outcome. The money concerns people here but let's assume by now that JWH et al don't need us looking out for their budget.

In short, the Sox traded some level of certainty for upside. Again, I may have this dynamic wrong but it also strikes me as a smart move if you believe that the players will prevail in moving the arbitration clock forward. It feels like teams with a bigger pipeline of prospects will fare better in that environment but perhaps that isn't even a consideration for Bloom.
 

BringBackMo

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The only thing I worry about with JBJ's defense is that its based on speed.
If that's the only thing you worry about with JBJ's defense then you should feel pretty good about his defense. JBJ has never been a blazer. He's been outstanding with his reads and his routes. This article from 2017 had him registering 27.2 feet per second in Statcast sprint speed data. The MLB average at the time, according to the article, was 27.0 feet per second. JBJ's sprint speed at the time placed him sixth on the Red Sox, tied with Marco Hernandez.
 

BringBackMo

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The rating of the incoming prospects is uninspiring, but I’m open to the possibility that people who work in the game see something that the folks who write for Baseball America or whatever do not.
This is a fair concern, but the SoxProspsects guys often point out that proximity to the big leagues is a significant driver of prospect rankings. Binelas, in particular, seems like the sort of prospect who could shoot up the rankings as he climbs the minor league ladder and gets closer to the majors. That said, another driver of rankings is position, which could hold Binelas back a bit as he appears to be a 1B-only player. All in all, I think Binelas is a quite intriguing prospect, and I find myself persuaded more by the Sox interest in him than by where he fell in the ranking after his first year in pro ball.
 

YTF

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JBJ's? Pretty close, anyway. Even if one gives Renfroe a slight edge in arm strength (and certainly his assist total was impressive this past year), I think JBJ is probably a better right fielder than Renfroe overall. Anticipation, first step, hands, situational awareness, baseball IQ, etc. We now have two really good center fielders in Kike and JBJ, and you pretty much need a CF in RF at Fenway. When they're both on the field I think JBJ plays right because he has a better arm than Kike.

Verdugo-Kike-JBJ (L to R) is a really good outfield. I bet we see it a lot, and I think JBJ will play more than a typical fourth outfielder. The '21 Sox were excellent offensively, and even with JBJ in there the '22 Sox should have another strong lineup. I think they'll carry JBJ's bat a fair amount, at least in the first half.
JBJ does have the arm to play RF, but I don't want him out there everyday because I don't want his bat in the lineup everyday. As Mauf mentioned up thread I think Chaim sold high on Renfroe for a couple of prospects and found his fourth OF.
 

snowmanny

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Would you pay $17M+ for two prospects like that? I have to think he’s banking on a return to from for JBJ, which seems reasonable enough of a gamble.
Return to form would be the 90 OPS +/2.5ish WAR player he was at ages 27-29 instead of the 34 OPS+/negative WAR guy he was last year at 31. Not sure I'd "bank" on that happening and even if it does it is not exactly great.
And I love JBJ for many reasons but he never seemed like someone who took well to changing his approach (seemed too pull/power happy) so I'm reasonably worried he's washed up.

But the whole board including me thought Mike Lowell was done when his salary was dumped on the Red Sox and he was fine, so who knows? Like you said we are all guessing.
 

InsideTheParker

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JBJ's? Pretty close, anyway. Even if one gives Renfroe a slight edge in arm strength (and certainly his assist total was impressive this past year), I think JBJ is probably a better right fielder than Renfroe overall. Anticipation, first step, hands, situational awareness, baseball IQ, etc. We now have two really good center fielders in Kike and JBJ, and you pretty much need a CF in RF at Fenway. When they're both on the field I think JBJ plays right because he has a better arm than Kike.

Verdugo-Kike-JBJ (L to R) is a really good outfield. I bet we see it a lot, and I think JBJ will play more than a typical fourth outfielder. The '21 Sox were excellent offensively, and even with JBJ in there the '22 Sox should have another strong lineup. I think they'll carry JBJ's bat a fair amount, at least in the first half.
Yes. Thinking about it this morning, I have concluded that JBJ in RF is the way to go. If he can't hit at all, then he will be reserved for the defensive ninth, I guess.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Do you trust his bat out there everyday?
Everyday? No. But I didn't trust Renfroe's either. Or his glove, for that matter.

JBJ is unquestionably a defensive upgrade in RF over Renfroe. But a platoon of some sort, particularly sitting JBJ against lefties, would be the optimal approach.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Binelas is certainly far from uninspiring. I think he's a very intriguing prospect because of his age, power, and seemingly has just started to scratch the surface of how good he can be. Hamilton is less likely to rise up the ranks, but Binelas could.
Pulled from a couple of different spots- seems like Binelas's stock dropped significantly due to an injury in college. He was projected as a late first round pick but fell to the third round due to poor start to the college season (caused by a hand injury). He ended up hitting 19 homers with a .621 slugging %. AT MLB’s first pre-Draft Combine, Jim Callis reported that Binelas led all hitters in terms of maximum distance (446 feet), as well as both average and maximum exit velocity (98 mph and 109 mph, respectively). When he moved up to A ball this year, he put up similarly good stats: .314/.379/.636, 132 PA, 9 HR.

Hamilton looks much less impressive, with this primary skill being plus defense and excellent speed (he stole 31 bases in his first 43 games in High A ball).
 

Rovin Romine

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Assuming no value from JBJ and assuming that Renfroe's contract is a wash, and even if you take this Fangraphs article that teams paid $4.81M per win in FA in 2021 - which I note is way lower than it has been in previous years - if the prospects can generate what 4 wins over their cost-controlled years, then they will make up the $17.5M.

So to answer your question, yes prospects are worth that much.

The only reason Bloom does this deal is because he thinks it's pretty likely there will be a good amount of surplus value on the back end.
I don't mean to discount what you're saying, but there's an important caveat that not all wins are created equally or are fungible. Do you have to play a meh player the whole season to rack up 1 WAR? What's the opportunity cost in doing so? Trade value is always relative.

Along those lines, salary costs don't happen in a vacuum - there's a cap, and maybe the organizational philosophy is to stay below it at points.

I'm sure Bloom think's there's value here, or he wouldn't have done the trade. I'm just not sure it's as solid or sure a value as some seem to think.
 

joe dokes

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The only thing I worry about with JBJ's defense is that its based on speed. If he starts, his bat is obviously going to be a liability, but I've got to think Chaim and Co. know that already and will try to squeeze out what they can for as long as they can (guessing just 2022).

All this leads me to believe as someone speculated earlier, Kike to 2nd and Schwarber to RF.
But it isn't based on speed. He's never been a speed guy. His defense is based on anticipation and getting a jump. (I can't quantify this; it's something I think I've read several times. )
 

Cesar Crespo

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But it isn't based on speed. He's never been a speed guy. His defense is based on anticipation and getting a jump. (I can't quantify this; it's something I think I've read several times. )
If he's a step slower, it's going to impact his defense regardless of if he was a speed guy or not.
 

osori

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Despite the prospects looking promising, not a big fan of taking JBJ's horrible contract (and bat).

But Bloom has been great so far, so I trust his decision.
 

chawson

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I'm sure Bloom think's there's value here, or he wouldn't have done the trade. I'm just not sure it's as solid or sure a value as some seem to think.
It may be that Bloom knows another GM who’d want Binelas or Hamilton in a trade later on in the offseason, in which case this would be more like a delayed 3-team deal.

Someone would have to be dealt. Dalbec is a FA in ‘27, and we’ll have Casas, Jordan, Binelas and (possible DH) Kavadas in the pipeline ready by ‘25.
 

joe dokes

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If he's a step slower, it's going to impact his defense regardless of if he was a speed guy or not.
Yes, this is true. I might have misinterpreted the post as suggesting that he was the type of CF who used his speed to overcome other shortcomings, like getting a jump, etc. (Sort of what is said about Duran).
 

ngruz25

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You act like $17 mil is a lot to pay for 2 prospects. Tell me how much Moncada signed for again.

100% YES he would pay $17 mil for 2 prospects like that.
The fact that the organization is happy to pay $17 million for two prospects, one of whom was just drafted in the 3rd round of the 2021 draft, is a pretty fascinating bit of insight on the MLB draft in general. And specifically in how it is designed to suppress the money going to players.

Jud Fabian was a higher rated prospect than Binelas and was drafted 46 spots higher than Binelas. And yet, slot money at that spot was $1.8 million, and the Sox were apparently unwilling to go as high as $3 for him. Binelas does have the benefit of adding a strong 29 games at Low A to his resume, but it's still an interesting comparison.
 

chrisfont9

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It's errors, I know, but Renfroe had 12 last year. JBJ has had 20 his whole career. And aside from that, watching him play, I think we all know that he was maybe maybe slightly above average in RF. He did not get to a lot of balls. While he was not at vaz or verdugos level, he was also part of the steak head base running brigade. I'm not that worried about losing him. We'll see about the rest.
Yup. Renfroe has one season of non-negative dWAR in his career. I loved seeing him hose guys at third, but he did not fit the blueprint of the last two decades of having a strong defensive right fielder for Fenway. And he probably should have been benched in the ALCS.
 

mikcou

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If that's the only thing you worry about with JBJ's defense then you should feel pretty good about his defense. JBJ has never been a blazer. He's been outstanding with his reads and his routes. This article from 2017 had him registering 27.2 feet per second in Statcast sprint speed data. The MLB average at the time, according to the article, was 27.0 feet per second. JBJ's sprint speed at the time placed him sixth on the Red Sox, tied with Marco Hernandez.
I dont think this is the right way to look at it. Normally, faster guys can hedge speed declines by hopefully improving their routes/jumps. Bradley is already 99th percentile there - any speed lost is likely going to hit his range. For what its worth, Andruw Jones (another elite defensive CF who was not fast and honestly a better defender than JBJ) fell off the face of the earth defensively around 30 as his speed evaporated. Jones partially got a bit out of shape, but I suspect if Bradley's speed declines, hes not going to be a good defender and the decline will come very fast. I dont think theres any indication that JBJ has particularly slowed, but he is around the age where many non-elite athletes do.

Right field seems an ideal defensive place for him to hide a decline in speed and his ball tracking and knowledge of angles would be of great use in Fenway's disaster of a RF. That said, hopefully hes not playing much because hes pretty likely to be a pretty poor hitter.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The fact that the organization is happy to pay $17 million for two prospects, one of whom was just drafted in the 3rd round of the 2021 draft, is a pretty fascinating bit of insight on the MLB draft in general. And specifically in how it is designed to suppress the money going to players.

Jud Fabian was a higher rated prospect than Binelas and was drafted 46 spots higher than Binelas. And yet, slot money at that spot was $1.8 million, and the Sox were apparently unwilling to go as high as $3 for him. Binelas does have the benefit of adding a strong 29 games at Low A to his resume, but it's still an interesting comparison.
I know you know this but just for posterity, it's not really $17M. It's $17M minus any value that JBJ brings and plus/minus and negative/surplus value Renfroe would have been if they kept him.

But more to your point, and people have said this before but tanking didn't really become a widely-pursued thing (more or less) until rookie salary caps were installed. I mean no one was really tanking to have the right to pay Sam Bradford $80M (or whatever his contract ended up being) before he stepped foot on a pro football field.

I don't mean to discount what you're saying, but there's an important caveat that not all wins are created equally or are fungible. Do you have to play a meh player the whole season to rack up 1 WAR? What's the opportunity cost in doing so? Trade value is always relative.

Along those lines, salary costs don't happen in a vacuum - there's a cap, and maybe the organizational philosophy is to stay below it at points.

I'm sure Bloom think's there's value here, or he wouldn't have done the trade. I'm just not sure it's as solid or sure a value as some seem to think.
Maybe I'm not being clear, and if I'm not I apologize. Bloom didn't make this trade because he thinks that the two prospects are going to make 5 WAR over their cost controlled years. He made this deal because he obviously thinks that there is a significant potential for one of them to contribute much more than 5 WAR - that is, to generate the surplus value he looks for in a deal.

It's not risk-free but at some point, the potential upside is real enough (50%? 40%?) that Bloom likes the deal.

In addition to being a fascinating commentary on how the rookie wage scale has suppressed the value of draft picks, it's also a commentary on how hard the talent acquisition process is these days. MLB has locked down most of the ways that teams can use payroll to boost their chances at acquiring talent. Bloom is using the RS's payroll like NBA teams do - a means to generate additional swings at the talent development pool. Very creative.