Hypothetical: Tomlin vs. Vrabel

[tims4wins]

With all of the discussion about the Pats not running a real process, and with rumblings about whether Tomlin will be out in Pittsburgh, I'm curious on the board's pulse.

Two part question: who would you prefer as the Pats coach; and who would you prefer if you were a generic NFL team with an opening. Just Vrabel vs. Tomlin, no other candidates.

 

[bankshot1]

Pats- Vrabel.
I like his make-up, the institutional continuity, the history, and the hope he brings some BB back to the sidelines.

Tomlin-Team generic.
I've grown to appreciate Tomlin's bluster and BS, and interesting articulation. I think he's entertaining. And he competed pretty well in what was probably one of the best divisions in the AFC. I generally liked the way the Steelers played. Hard nosed and tough.

And lets not forget Team generic will be getting a HoF to be.

And that's a lock.

 

[Seels]

I don't currently and have never thought highly of Tomlin. I think he's an okay coach who is mostly overrated when people look at w/l record. He's like a better version of Jeff Fisher. He's a pretty good bet to have your team be decent, but unlikely to be better than that.

 

[Bozo Texino]

Not a Pats fan, so I went Tomlin/Tomlin.

 

[Silverdude2167]

Tomlin's teams have never overachieved and any time he faced a better coach he lost.

He is probably close to the definition of a replacement level coach. He is fine, but only fine.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

Tomlin's teams have never overachieved and any time he faced a better coach he lost.

He is probably close to the definition of a replacement level coach. He is fine, but only fine.

In the NFL, replacement level coaches lose way more than they win. If Tomlin is a replacement level and “fine” there are like 7 good coaches in the league.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I don't currently and have never thought highly of Tomlin. I think he's an okay coach who is mostly overrated when people look at w/l record. He's like a better version of Jeff Fisher. He's a pretty good bet to have your team be decent, but unlikely to be better than that.

better version of Fisher probably applies to both Tomlin and Vrabel

Decent, not difference making coaches. Guys who can get the culture right and have the team running competently. Clearly deserving of a job but not one of the top 5-6 guys in terms of ability to elevate the roster.

I don’t think Vrabel or Tomlin could take a 6 win caliber roster to 10 wins but I think both guys could get at least the true talent level plus maybe a bit more (7 wins in this example)

I think most reasonable CEO coaches fall into that same category though. They’ll coach to the talent level of the roster and hopefully a smart, tough, fundamentally sound team can steal an extra win or two.

 

[tims4wins]

Would love to hear from some of the folks that picked Tomlin for the Pats.

 

[BigJimEd]

Probably comes down to:

.630 winning pct over 19 seasons. 8-11, .421% in playoffs. 2 Super Bowl appearances. 1 Super Bowl Championship

vs

.545 winning pct over 6 seasons. 2-3, .400 in playoffs. no SB appearances.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think there is a lot of "this guy played for the Patriots" and Tomlin fatigue going on...

Tomlin has coached for 18 years, he has never had a team finish below .500 in the regular season... his resume blows Vrabel's away. (multiple GMs over that time too)

In the Vrabel arguments people were saying "oh he had a bad QB for his sub .500 seasons"..... Tomlin went 9-8 with Pickett/Trubisky (7-5 when Pickett was healthy), 10-7 with Pickett/Randolph/Trubisky (10-5 with his top 2 QBs), he went 8-8 in 2019... and it was 8-6 with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges.

If you want the "safe" and "culture builder" pick, Tomlin seems clearly superior based on his resume.

 

[Archer1979]

I went Vrabel/Vrabel. I think that Tomlin has pretty much peaked as a head coach/field general where I think Vrabel still has more to learn. And, that said, I see Vrabel's potential ceiling to be closer to Belichick than it is to Tomlin. Tomlin has been very good in Pittsburgh and he has never had a losing record. That said, as mentioned earlier upthread, with the exception of his two Super Bowl appearances, his teams have never been worrisome in the playoffs, including eight one and out appearances.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Great topic!

The Tomlin tenure seems to have been held back from uber-success by unimaginative, easily-dissected zone defensive schemes. If that's valid, what portion of the blame pie goes to Tomlin vs. the Steelers organization for that shortcoming?

 

[8slim]

Would love to hear from some of the folks that picked Tomlin for the Pats.

I did. I think Tomlin is an excellent, highly proven head coach. The Steelers are always good-ish, and frequently very good. I think they've struggled with navigating the end of Big Ben's career and finding his replacement.

He got 10 wins and a playoff appearance from a pretty gnarly bunch this season and last. I'd take him over Vrabel, easily.

 

[tims4wins]

I did. I think Tomlin is an excellent, highly proven head coach. The Steelers are always good-ish, and frequently very good. I think they've struggled with navigating the end of Big Ben's career and finding his replacement.

He got 10 wins and a playoff appearance from a pretty gnarly bunch this season and last. I'd take him over Vrabel, easily.

I hear you.

The stat that they’ve fallen behind by 21 in each of their last six playoff games is what ultimately would scare me off. That’s a remarkable stat.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I think there is a lot of "this guy played for the Patriots" and Tomlin fatigue going on...

Tomlin has coached for 18 years, he has never had a team finish below .500 in the regular season... his resume blows Vrabel's away. (multiple GMs over that time too)

In the Vrabel arguments people were saying "oh he had a bad QB for his sub .500 seasons"..... Tomlin went 9-8 with Pickett/Trubisky (7-5 when Pickett was healthy), 10-7 with Pickett/Randolph/Trubisky (10-5 with his top 2 QBs), he went 8-8 in 2019... and it was 8-6 with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges.

If you want the "safe" and "culture builder" pick, Tomlin seems clearly superior based on his resume.

I think the argument against Tomlin’s resume with regard to winning with bad QB is that he had elite defensive talent on those rosters

Not saying I fully buy that but it’s something to consider.

 

[8slim]

I hear you.

The stat that they’ve fallen behind by 21 in each of their last six playoff games is what ultimately would scare me off. That’s a remarkable stat.

Yeah, I get it. Playoff success is weird though. And no one knows that better than Pats fans. If Adam Viniatieri didn't have balls of steel (and a leg made of the richest mahogany) we lose a couple of those early BB era playoff games and the narrative looks a lot different.

 

[EvilEmpire]

I did. I think Tomlin is an excellent, highly proven head coach. The Steelers are always good-ish, and frequently very good. I think they've struggled with navigating the end of Big Ben's career and finding his replacement.

He got 10 wins and a playoff appearance from a pretty gnarly bunch this season and last. I'd take him over Vrabel, easily.

This is where I’m at.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Tomlin's teams have never overachieved and any time he faced a better coach he lost.

He is probably close to the definition of a replacement level coach. He is fine, but only fine.

I think by definition "replacement level" cannot include a coach that has never been under .500 and has a ring.

There are a lot of replacement level coaches out there. They don't last 18 years and some of them don't last 18 months.

 

[tims4wins]

Interesting that other team is 44-36 in favor of Vrabel as of right now (55%), but 60-20 (75%) for the Pats. Probably a function of his playing here?

 

[j44thor]

I don't think there is a safer hire in the NFL than Tomlin if you are hiring a coach today. I prefer Vrabel for NE because of his past experience with the franchise but if I'm a GM for generic franchise that wants to keep my job for a few years Tomlin is a no-brainer. He has among the highest floors a coach has in the NFL and doesn't seem to meddle in personnel at all. He'll try to mould whatever you give him into a contender. I doubt he wins another ring but he'll coach for as long as he wants to.

 

[Granite Sox]

Tomlin the best at building and maintaining team identity and managing behavior challenges with star players. Unremarkable when it comes to X’s and O’s, position coaching, game planning, in-game strategy. One of the best, if not the best, at getting the most out of his roster.

Vrabel a notch below at building team identity and managing players, but several notches better than Tomlin at all facets of actually playing football on offense and defense. Advantage: Vrabel.

Probably a “push” at identifying/hiring coaches. Not necessarily a strength for either.

 

[Seels]

I'm puzzled to the Tomlin defense.

There was no team in the league I was more confident was going to be a win on the Patriots schedule throughout the entire Belichick era. Not the Browns, Lions, Jets, Bills. Every year that was the safest win on the entire schedule regardless of the caliber of their team.

The Steelers have continually had pretty high level quarterback play, or at worst, at least decentish qb play. There is thought about the AFC north being tough, but.. well what? The Browns are perennial bottom feeders and the Bengals have been average at best outside a year or two of Burrow.

What exactly does Tomlin do at a level better than okay? I will recognize that the Steelers routinely have a good roster, and good drafts. But Tomlin isn't really involved with that. Not falling below .500 is nice, but collectively since 2019 they have a +10 point differential. They haven't been a top 5 team by record, point differential, yard differential, or really any other measure since at least 2017 (and I'd argue 2010). Yes, the Steelers can construct a roster that is not embarrassing. But that team, since the superbowls in 05-2010, has not been a franchise that has meaningfully competed for a superbowl.

 

[Auger34]

Tomlin's teams have never overachieved and any time he faced a better coach he lost.

He is probably close to the definition of a replacement level coach. He is fine, but only fine.

This is an absolutely crazy take. Guy has never been under .500 and his QBs have been middling at his best since Ben retired

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'm puzzled to the Tomlin defense.

There was no team in the league I was more confident was going to be a win on the Patriots schedule throughout the entire Belichick era. Not the Browns, Lions, Jets, Bills. Every year that was the safest win on the entire schedule regardless of the caliber of their team.

The Steelers have continually had pretty high level quarterback play, or at worst, at least decentish qb play. There is thought about the AFC north being tough, but.. well what? The Browns are perennial bottom feeders and the Bengals have been average at best outside a year or two of Burrow.

What exactly does Tomlin do at a level better than okay? I will recognize that the Steelers routinely have a good roster, and good drafts. But Tomlin isn't really involved with that. Not falling below .500 is nice, but collectively since 2019 they have a +10 point differential. They haven't been a top 5 team by record, point differential, yard differential, or really any other measure since at least 2017 (and I'd argue 2010). Yes, the Steelers can construct a roster that is not embarrassing. But that team, since the superbowls in 05-2010, has not been a franchise that has meaningfully competed for a superbowl.

I think the last time the Steelers had anything above "below average" QB play was 2019... after that they had washed post-injury Roethlisberger who couldn't throw downfield, and a rotating cast of scrubs.

 

[j-man]

for me netiner sean payton or mcvay

 

[dabutcha]

Long time Steelers Fan here.

RE: Tomlin - This thread sums up a lot of my feelings on Tomlin in general.

He has had a hell of a successful career. 18 consecutive non-losing seasons to start his career, taking teams that were by far not the best at points and getting them to the playoffs (Rudolph/Duck, Pickett/Rudolph/Trubisky eras). I'd even argue this year was more of a success than it could have been with having only one legitimate receiving option in the entire offense.

However, he has also had some years (the killer Bs???) where he had the talent to blow the playoffs away and he couldn't put together a game plan to get them over the hump. He consistently makes weird play calls (fake punts on 4th and 10 with the score tied going into halftime type JV plays) and it does often feel like he's out coached by his contemporaries (Harbaugh, Payton, McDermott, Reid.)

The 2009 SB win was mostly Cowher's team running mostly Cowher's offense and Dick LeBeau's defense.
So, looking at his record, 2011 and 2017 are the only years where you can argue he actually took a team of his own making anywhere worth talking about in the playoffs. Controversial on a NE sports thread, but 2017 should have been another SB year if the refs had eyes on the Jesse James catch. But sprinkled in you've had some wildly awful times (especially in the last decade.) The 11-0 to 12-4 ending with a first round loss to the Browns? The first round loss to Tim Tebow? The first round loss to Blake Bottles and the Jags?

I love the guy, I have been a long time defender. He's a HOF coach, would be immediately snatched by another team in the league if we dumped him, and would continue to go on and have success there - maybe even more success with a different team, environment, division, GM, etc. But this year (even despite what I think was overall a successful season given the offense,) the manner of the collapse and the team's showing in yet another first round loss has me for the first time thinking we ought to consider moving on in Pittsburgh.

At the end of the day, Mike T. hasn't had playoff success in close to a decade. If I were to draw a coaching comparison, it wouldn't be Jeff Fisher, it would be McCarthy's Green Bay era. He was great when he was great, but by the end it was time for him to go.

Vrabel? I'd be psyched to get him in Pittsburgh (young guy, room to grow, hungry like I feel Tomlin was in the beginning.) So I voted Tomlin/Tomlin because I would have wanted the rest of the league going after him while we brought in Vrabel.