Impact of Drew Deal on Payroll

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Cots has the Red Sox at $156.3m, all in. https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html

Drew brings it to $166.3m.

Using the estimates that Speier had before the year of $4 million for depth call ups, $10.8m for benefits, and $1.2m for 40-man minor salaries, that puts the Red Sox around $182.3m. http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/11/08/how-much-can-red-sox-spend-winter-2014-payroll

That leaves nearly $7m for waiver wire deals. Not a ton, but enough for a $21m/year player since you only get charged 1/3 of the salary for end of July deals. Speier suggested $5m was a reasonable reserve for trades. (Peavy was $5.5m.)

Given that we get Drew for 2/3 of the year instead of 1/3, give up no prospects, and are not saddled with anything in the future, if the yardstick for measuring this deal is what could have been in two months, this seems pretty favorable. I mean, we basically got 2 months of Peavy by giving up a good asset, paying $5.5m, and taking on the last, overpay year of his 5-year deal. Waiver wire free trade deals in July aren't cheap, and we still have $7m or so if the right deal comes along.

 

[AlNipper49]

Broke out from P&G Thread
 

 

[67WasBest]

Won't much of what you're suggesting is available will be eaten up by Sizemore's performance clauses?

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Won't much of what you're suggesting is available will be eaten up by Sizemore's performance clauses?

 
Ahh -- excellent point.  Cots only has him at $750k, and he's already earned his first $250k incentive, with at least a few more coming.  So, good point.  Bummer.  

 

[Joshv02]

Won't much of what you're suggesting is available will be eaten up by Sizemore's performance clauses?

1/2 - he has about 3.75mm in playing time incentives - if he doesn't go on the DL (?!) he should make them.  For example, the highest PA incentive is at 500; he is on track for 475, but he'll likely play more going forward (though, again, he'll also likely hit the DL at least once).
 
The rest of the money is in performance incentives, which are unlikely to be met.  
 
That would give them right around 3-4mm before the tax.  Also, by July they'll know more how much of the "depth" $ they will actually be using.  3-4mm is a roughly $10mm player, taking on 1/3 of his remaining salary obligation, assuming noone moves in the other direction.

 

[Puffy]

1/2 - he has about 3.75mm in playing time incentives - if he doesn't go on the DL (?!) he should make them.  For example, the highest PA incentive is at 500; he is on track for 475, but he'll likely play more going forward (though, again, he'll also likely hit the DL at least once).

 
I am wondering how much more rope Sizemore could possibly get. He's basically been the biggest black hole in the offense not named Middlebrooks or Bradley, Jr., and has pretty significant defensive limitations. He's had 133 PA, so it's hard to imagine a .218/.293/.336/.629 really being enough to cut it, particularly for a 31-year old reclamation project who has no future with the team and is going to cost more and more money the more he plays.
 
Unlike other players who are struggling at the plate and in the field, given Sizemore's injury history, there is a pretty good chance that below average defense and a .629 OPS might actually be what he is right now in 2014. I mean, if you squint, maybe you could project something a bit better (.700 OPS?). I guess I'm not ready to throw the towel in just yet, but it's getting closer every day. I think he'll need more than just marginal strides to still have a job on this team by the All Star break.
 
In the meantime, Daniel Nava is hitting .283/.400/.472/.872 against right-handed pitching in Pawtucket. I think he could really help the offense out if they went back to a straight Nava/Gomes platoon in LF. RHP is killing this offense.