Indiana Jones and the Acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton

[derekson]

Cameron is completely full of shit. Stanton would not cost all 3 of Betts, Swihart, and Owens. No player has ever commanded that many top 50 (possibly all top 30) prospects in one deal. People talk like this and then everyone acts shocked when the price tag is significantly lower when an actual trade occurs. IF Stanton is moved it will be at a price closer to what ivanvamp suggested:

Bogaerts, Ranaudo, Vazquez, Barnes, and a low level, high upside, guy for Stanton.
 

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Didn't Mark Teixeira get traded to the Braves for 3 or 4 highly-touted prospects?
 
EDIT:  Elvis Andrus, Neftali Perez, Matt Harrison, Salty and someone named Beau Jones.  Wow, that was a horrible trade for Atlanta.  Just read:  Saltalamacchia was the MAIN piece in the deal.  He and Andrus were their #1 and 2 prospects (I don't know about top 30).  
 
But I agree with derekson, I think the days of giving 3 great prospect for a guy with a couple of years left on his contract, are over.  Same with giving up a bunch of top prospects for the right to pay someone 20mil (like Hamels).  It's just bad math and teams are smarter these days.

 

[derekson]

Didn't Mark Teixeira get traded to the Braves for 3 or 4 highly-touted prospects?
 
EDIT:  Elvis Andrus, Neftali Perez, Matt Harrison, Salty and someone named Beau Jones.  Wow, that was a horrible trade for Atlanta.

 
Feliz was a high upside lottery ticket at the time. He just happened to pay off. Otherwise Salty was a top 50 guy, Andrus was a bit lower starting 2007 (#65 on Baseball America's 2007 list) though ascending prospect lists during the season, and Harrison was a fringe top 100 guy. And that trade is seen as the ultimate in overpays nowadays.

 

[jasail]

I posted this elsewhere (not SOSH), but I just really wish this talk would crawl off in a corner and die. I love Stanton as much as the next guy but this deal makes no sense for either team.  
 
1) The Marlins: They are in a weak division and have a good nucleus for a run next year. While Stanton is Arb2 next year and he'll get a sizeable raise but he won't price himself out of the Marlins payroll, as it's only a 2015 deal. With that in consideration, they need not move him for anything short of a King's Ransom.  If they don't intend to sign him long term, they can still move him after 2015 for a better return than any other player in baseball (not named Trout).  
 
 
2) The Sox: They have a lot of holes to fill going into next season. Most concerning are their lack of front of the rotation starter(s) and back of the bullpen relievers. If they were to address position players, their most glaring holes include the left side of the infield and left handed hitters. After bringing in Cespedes and Craig at the deadline this team no longer lacks corner OFers or RHH power. Stanton, while better than anyone they would have, is absolutely redundant. If anything, they may be looking to shed a RHH corner bat. So besides acquiring the best guy (not named Trout) it makes no sense to use their assets to pay a Kings Ransom for Stanton.  Those assets are better used elsewhere.
 
That said, when the Marlins do go into sell mode, I expect the Sox to be active. I just don't see either team being aggressive buyers or sellers this off-season. 

 

[mfried]

I posted this elsewhere (not SOSH), but I just really wish this talk would crawl off in a corner and die. I love Stanton as much as the next guy but this deal makes no sense for either team.  
 
1) The Marlins: They are in a weak division and have a good nucleus for a run next year. While Stanton is Arb2 next year and he'll get a sizeable raise but he won't price himself out of the Marlins payroll, as it's only a 2015 deal. With that in consideration, they need not move him for anything short of a King's Ransom.  If they don't intend to sign him long term, they can still move him after 2015 for a better return than any other player in baseball (not named Trout).  
 
 
2) The Sox: They have a lot of holes to fill going into next season. Most concerning are their lack of front of the rotation starter(s) and back of the bullpen relievers. If they were to address position players, their most glaring holes include the left side of the infield and left handed hitters. After bringing in Cespedes and Craig at the deadline this team no longer lacks corner OFers or RHH power. Stanton, while better than anyone they would have, is absolutely redundant. If anything, they may be looking to shed a RHH corner bat. So besides acquiring the best guy (not named Trout) it makes no sense to use their assets to pay a Kings Ransom for Stanton.  Those assets are better used elsewhere.
 
That said, when the Marlins do go into sell mode, I expect the Sox to be active. I just don't see either team being aggressive buyers or sellers this off-season. 

I wonder which Craig will appear in 2015, wherever he's playing - the 2013 one or this year's defective twin.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

/hijack
 
The Red Sox drafted Nick Hagadone and Ryan Dent ahead of Stanton. So I guess that would be a good 2 for 1 trade.
 
/sorry

 

[TomRicardo]

Count me out on Tulo for that kind of package.  With the labrum issue that has him shelved, I'm not sure I want him at any price.
 
It is my opinion, when Stanton is dealt, he'll be wearing Dodger blue.  In support I offer:
 
- Puig, Seager, Urias, plus, plus is a really strong package.  That's a cost controlled 70% WAR offset, at the same position, we can't match.  The two top 20 prospects is also something we can't match
- Stanton has already been approached by Hollywood and wants that 2nd career.
- His agents, the Wasserman Media Group, are located in LA; and being able to host prospective clients while featuring Stanton would be huge for their business. 
He's from Sherman Oaks, 20 minutes from Dodger Stadium.
 
Some of this is admittedly transcribed from Bowden's comments yesterday, when for once, he made some sense.

 
My guess is he will be a Cub.  
 
There isn't a team that could beat Starlin Castro plus Soler and another prospect.  Castro is cost controlled and young.
 
The best offer the Cubs will get for Castro for a pitcher is Zach Wheeler plus like deGrom or Montero... I rather have Stanton.

 

[TomRicardo]

 
I agree that the Cubs could put together a package that blow anyone else away if they decided to, but I disagree that Castro, Soler and another prospect couldn't be topped by a handful of teams. It also seems to fly directly in the face of statements made by Theo in the press that they plan to build the offense in the minors and then trade and sign for pitching. It seems like a terrible use of resources for them to package prospects for a hitter when they already have a bunch of budding young hitters ready to make an impact. 
 
They can go Bryant/Alcantara/Soler in the OF, Baez/Russell/Anyone/Rizzo in the IF, in 2015 and presumably have one of the best lineups in the NL. They could sign Zobrist for 2B if they wanted to get saucy. You then use Castro as trade bait and go over the top for a pitcher. Price, Shark, Zimmerman, Cueto, Fister...there's a lot of arms on the market after next season. To say nothing if they decide to get into the Lester/Scherzer/Shields market this year. 

 
Look I understand getting excited about rookies but if this year taught us anything it is top prospects don't immediately come in and hit.  Having 5 rookies in a lineup could be disastrous.  
 
Secondly why would the Tigers trade Price for Castro, the Nationals trade Zimmerman for Castro, and why would the Cubs trade for Fister?
 
I don't think there are a "ton" of arms this offseason and nothing of the caliber of Stanton.  
 
That said Cueto could be interesting but Castro is not going to be nearly enough to get him and the Reds are going to be looking for pitching.  Outside of CJ Edwards the Cubs do not have a ton of arms to deal.

 

[MakMan44]

Why are the Reds going to be looking for pitching? Their OF is pretty terrible, and Cozart has been terrible on offense for 3 years straight. I actually think that the Reds and Cubs up pretty well there, even if it's not a trade for Cueto. 
 
EDIT: You misunderstood his point anyway. He wasn't talking about trading Castro for those guys, he was suggesting they sign them after the 2015 season, because that's when they'll be FA. 

 

[TomRicardo]

 
They wouldn't, which is why I said they could sign them after next season when they are FAs. But don't bother reading the post you are quoting. 

 

You then use Castro as trade bait and go over the top for a pitcher. Price, Shark, Zimmerman, Cueto, Fister...there's a lot of arms on the market after next season. To say nothing if they decide to get into the Lester/Scherzer/Shields market this year. 
 

 
 
Please read that and say where you said go after them as free agents.  At best it was ambiguous what you were alluding to.
 
Edit Why would talk about using Castro to get a pitcher then immediately go into signing free agents?  What was your point?  Or were you just filling space again?

 

[djhb20]

So, who else do we demand from the Marlins so they can acquire Mookie for Stanton?

Obviously that's too much for us to give up and only get Stanton in return. Maybe one of their young starters....

 

[soxhop411]

Jon Couture ‏@JonCouture  3h
Olney, writing about pursuit of Stanton, says #RedSox couldn't match others "anchor piece" of a trade package - http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/7987 …
 
 can someone recap this for those of us who do not have insider?

 

[MakMan44]

They don't have as good a head line piece as some other clubs, like the Cubs for example, do. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

They don't have as good a head line piece as some other clubs, like the Cubs for example, do. 

But, the Cubs don't have the depth of prospects both in pitching and hitting that the Red Sox do.  I feel confident enough saying that the Red Sox could offer a better package than the Cubs.

 

[soxhop411]

They don't have as good a head line piece as some other clubs, like the Cubs for example, do. 

I disagree with this. (not you, but ESPN) 

 

[MakMan44]

But, the Cubs don't have the depth of prospects both in pitching and hitting that the Red Sox do.  I feel confident enough saying that the Red Sox could offer a better package than the Cubs.

I dunno. If I'm in the Marlins shoes, and the Cubs offer Bryant, what do the Sox offer that's going to really top that? (EDIT:Especially if the Marlins think Bryant can stick at 3rd)
 
EDIT: I forgot about Swihart. I think he comes close to Bryant in terms of interest to teams but only because he's a catcher. 

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

There are plenty of teams that COULD offer better packages than the Sox likely WOULD offer.  If LA wanted to give up Puig, Seager and Urias, that would beat anything Boston would be willing to offer.  But LA would be stupid to offer that.  Cubs could offer Castro, Soler and Bryant.  Also stupid, imo.  But that's why it's essentially futile to speculate about how we stack up against other clubs in a hypothetical Stanton pursuit.
 
I do continue to think that Boston could meet the Marlins' needs/wants for current and future and cost-controlled MLB-ready talent by combining the replacement middle-order bat in Cespedes with, say, Betts (who looks ready to help now), Owens, and a lower-level younger guy like Margot.  That wouldn't get laughed at.

 

[kazuneko]

 
To expand on Mak's synopsis, Olney basically said: 
 
1. Dodgers; prospects to offer, money to resign and Stanton in LA would be like Shaq going to the Lakers 
2. Cubs; Bryant, but Bryant's agent is Boras so potentially they would rather sign Stanton long term than deal with the "uncertainty" of Bryant; I'm guessing he's saying that 10 years of Stanton at FA rates > six years of Bryant pre FA if there's the risk to lose him after that? 
3. Sox; they don't have the stud like LAD (Seager) or CHC (Bryant) but have more volume; they could also subsidize Castillo and include him.
4. NYY if the trade doesn't happen until after 2015 and their prospects tick up next season 
5. Mets; have pitching to deal but people don't think Stnaton would resign
6. Tex; have prospects but big money already out to Shoo and Fielder
7. Cards; could meet the price but "not their style"
8. Astros; prospects but Stanton probably wouldn't resign 
 
I lost count of how many times the words "rival executives" "unnamed" "one executive" etc were used. It was a bullshit article and offers little. 

This really just seems like the media trying to overhype the interest in Stanton to generate hits on websites. I mean, even in that list of 8 teams 5 are basically non-contenders (if Tex doesn't have the money, the Yanks don't have the prospects, the Mets and Astros can't resign him and the Cards aren't interested, why even list them?). And there are serious question marks about the remaining three.  The Dodgers -supposedly the most likely- actually make very little sense. Stanton is going to be a very expensive signing for whoever gets him, but for the Dodgers the price would also have to include a second, subsidized trade of either  Crawford or Kemp. Wouldn't it be a far  better use of their assets to resign Hanley and/or trade for Tulo? The Sox, number 3 on this list, also don't make much sense. The team is currently overloaded with outfielders and in desperate need of starting pitching. Wouldn't it make more sense for their assets to be funneled that direction?  And since when are the post-Punto deal Red Sox interested in longterm, big-money deals?  Stanton is likely going to require a 10 year 250 million dollar deal. That type of contract seems to go completely contrary to the operating philosophy of the team since they were bit in the ass by the Crawford signing. So in the end that leaves the Cubs, but they might be the one team in the league who isn't in need of a power bat. Next year they'll probably have Rizzo, Soler, Bryant  and Baez in what should be a pretty dynamic young lineup. Wouldn't they be better off signing a top of the rotation starter (Lester?) instead of giving up both prospects and big money for Stanton?
Really, unless some team bids against themselves after deciding they need to make a big splash, there seems like a good chance that the Marlins will end up having to accept a lot less than some of the crazy packages that have been discussed. The Marlins have no choice but to trade Stanton, but among the few teams out there  that can actually afford him there doesn't seem to be anyone with a complementary need to trade for him.  

 

[JimD]

 
I lost count of how many times the words "rival executives" "unnamed" "one executive" etc were used. It was a bullshit article and offers little. 

 
I generally like Olney, but he's as susceptible to churning out these speculative pieces as any of them.  In his defense, though, they're probably fun to write.

 

[pockmeister]

The Sox, number 3 on this list, also don't make much sense. The team is currently overloaded with outfielders and in desperate need of starting pitching. Wouldn't it make more sense for their assets to be funneled that direction?  And since when are the post-Punto deal Red Sox interested in longterm, big-money deals?  Stanton is likely going to require a 10 year 250 million dollar deal. That type of contract seems to go completely contrary to the operating philosophy of the team since they were bit in the ass by the Crawford signing. 

 
I'd agree with the general premise that the Sox are avoiding long-term big money deals post-Punto, but I'm not sure that the overloaded outfield is an issue here.  The current outfield is populated by decent but not exceptional MLB players (unless Mookie really does become the Messiah), who are unlikely to be close to the level of production Stanton might deliver - regardless of which players he replaces.  It would be pretty reasonable to use the outfield excess as part of the trade package to get him / trade them elsewhere to get useful complementary assets (pitching), thus addressing to some degree both of the issues.  However, the size and length of contract for Stanton is the most likely blocker to this.  
 
I suppose one factor that may move the Sox towards offering a large and long contract is if the FO is confident that Stanton's bat projects to carry at any position for a decade or so, opening up the possibility of him becoming a 1B / DH towards the back end of the deal.  His power would indicate this is pretty reasonable as an assumption - he's such a different type of player to Crawford, and so the FO may be thinking of him as a power OF solution for 5-6 years, then a 1B / DH from 2020 onwards.  This would seem to be a way to get maximum value from him and prolonging his effective career.

 

[snowmanny]

The Marlins plan to offer Stanton the most lucrative contract in the history of the franchise.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2014/09/09/giancarlo-stanton-nl-mvp-marlins-trade-contract/15360507/

My guess is that if they don't offer him more dollars than any other contract in LEAGUE history
(i.e. More than Votto's 12/251 extension - at the same service point, I believe) he isn't signing.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

What's their largest contract, the Reyes deal?  It's not saying much.  7/$105M sure isn't getting it done. 

 

[geoduck no quahog]

What's their largest contract, the Reyes deal?  It's not saying much.  7/$105M sure isn't getting it done. 

 
A cursory check on their 2012 payroll has the following:
 
Carlos Zambrano: (5 / 91.5 + 13M option) w/ 19M due in 2012
Hanley Ramirez: (6 / 70) w/ 16M due in 2014
Josh Johnson: (4 / 39) w/ 13.75M due in 2013
Jose Reyes: (6 / 106) w/ 22M due 2015-2017
 
Zambrano's AAV actually exceeds Reyes'

 

[Cumberland Blues]

Well yeah, but the Cubs gave Z that contract and were paying a chunk of the freight for his time in MIA.

 

[OCD SS]

I've just been assuming it will be comparable to their offer for Pujols; I have no idea if I'm giving the Marlins too much credit, or if Stanton would sign anything without no trade protection.

 

[Jnai]

Took a fastball off the face tonight.

 

[ALiveH]

time to kill this thread.

 

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

https://vine.co/v/OaupxpK5w0u
 
Square in the face.  
 
Why I suck so bad at embedding?

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

https://vine.co/v/OaupxpK5w0u
 
Square in the face.  
 
Why I suck so bad at embedding?

 
All the better; this should be a little hard to get too. (I sure as hell don't want to see it.)

 

[Pozo the Clown]

 
All the better; this should be a little hard to get too. (I sure as hell don't want to see it.)

 
Let's all hope and pray that this:http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2014/08/47_years_ago_tonight_everything_changed_for_tony_c.html  is NOT how Stanton's story plays out.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

 
Let's all hope and pray that this:http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2014/08/47_years_ago_tonight_everything_changed_for_tony_c.html  is NOT how Stanton's story plays out.

 
I'm not clicking through on your link because I don't want to see the full-color picture of what happened to TonyC again.
 
I wish I could un-see it.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

Wow. Just awful. Brings back memories from taking one in the face in HS. Hope he fully heals and comes back the same player. Fun player to watch.

 

[mabrowndog]

For those interested, there's a separate thread on the incident and his injuries.

 

[IpswichSox]

Dave Samson, the Marlins' president, says Stanton won't be traded this winter, according to the Miami Herald:
 

While the Marlins intend to soon offer Stanton a long-term contract that would keep him in Miami beyond the 2016 season, when he first becomes eligible for free agency, they’re not letting go of him even if he doesn't accept. Instead, they would go through salary arbitration, a process in which Stanton stands to make as much as $13 million next season.
 
"He’s on this team [in 2015] either way,” Samson told the Herald. “I can’t wait until after the season to sit down with Giancarlo and [agent] Joel Wolfe and talk about contract. We’re ready. We want him to be a Marlin well past his arbitration years. We hope that he believes in us and believes in Miami and believes in the direction of this team and recognizes that he has a chance to be the leader of a successful team for many years to come.”

 

[OptimusPapi]

But sox and their fans deserve Stanton and we are entitled so this must mean he is lying. He probably just wants the sox to throw in Middlebrooks in addition to Webster and Coyle

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

WMB and Webster and Coyle???  If so, then it better be a 3-team deal with Hamels coming to Boston, too.

 

[gryoung]

But that 3-team deal may also require Holt. Still interested now?

 

[snowmanny]

But sox and their fans deserve Stanton and we are entitled so this must mean he is lying. He probably just wants the sox to throw in Middlebrooks in addition to Webster and Coyle

 
Well, that organization is famous for lying.  The owner told Reyes to buy a house in Miami two days before they traded him. 
 
That being said there is no excuse for the Marlins not to have an $85-90 Million payroll with the new TV contract and the most logical place for them to spend their money is on Stanton.

 

[JimD]

Samson may be gambling that Stanton's outlook about waiting two more years for his big payday changed after taking that fastball in the face.  Take away the option of getting traded before 2017 to a big market team and maybe Giancarlo would be more amenable to signing a deal now with Miami.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

If Samson said that Stanton is as good as traded if you go by their track record.

 

[gryoung]

From the Sox, or any other potential suitor's, perspective it seems pretty smart to table any trade considerations until we all see how he recovers.  This is a nasty injury and there could be side-effects, both physical and mental. 

 

[MakMan44]

Maybe mental (I doubt it) but without any damage to the vision, why would there any physical side effects?

 

[seantoo]

Samson may be gambling that Stanton's outlook about waiting two more years for his big payday changed after taking that fastball in the face.  Take away the option of getting traded before 2017 to a big market team and maybe Giancarlo would be more amenable to signing a deal now with Miami.

Of course he is.