Is Bryce Harper finished?

jon abbey

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Seriously? He is 24, Aaron Judge is six months older.
 

glasspusher

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last year, pre all star break:

post all star break:
Along with 749 other players
Yes, true, but coming off a unanimous MVP year and doing .256/.399/.491 before the all star break and .226/.336/.373 afterwards. August was his only month above .300 (.310). That's quite a drop off from 2015.
Maybe I'm just catching up to this late. Has it been discussed here?

Edit: to bosox79's point, SLG in third slash.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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off topic but what is with the growing trend of people putting OPS in the 3rd slash column instead of slugging?
 

jon abbey

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Yes, true, but coming off a unanimous MVP year and doing .256/.399/.491 before the all star break and .226/.336/.373 afterwards. August was his only month above .300 (.310). That's quite a drop off from 2015.
I don't follow the NL much, but there were lots of rumors all year that he was playing through injuries. I don't think Harper or his people ever said anything definitively, but this article from last month seems to cover it all pretty well:

http://www.federalbaseball.com/2017/2/8/14555064/scott-boras-on-bryce-harper-2016-i-think-harp-had-an-issue-that-he-played-through
 

glasspusher

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I don't follow the NL much, but there were lots of rumors all year that he was playing through injuries. I don't think Harper or his people ever said anything definitively, but this article from last month seems to cover it all pretty well:

http://www.federalbaseball.com/2017/2/8/14555064/scott-boras-on-bryce-harper-2016-i-think-harp-had-an-issue-that-he-played-through
Interesting article, thanks. I don't follow the NL as much either, but when Harper is on, he's got a swing as sweet as Griffey had. That homer against Hunter Strickland in the 2014 NLDS comes to mind.

from the article:
“Harper hit .178 on four-seam fastballs at the belt and above. The previous year he hit .371 off those same pitches. Something was clearly wrong.”

wow.
 

DJnVa

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Had a collapse the second half of last year. Found this interesting tidbit:

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=1-18792828

About half of his career WAR of 21.5 comes from a 9.9 WAR in 2015. Will be interesting to see how he does this year.
What about that says he finished? His OPS+ was still 116 last year, and he had the second highest OBP of his career.

He was shitty after the ASB, that doesn't mean someone is "finished".
 

glasspusher

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What about that says he finished? His OPS+ was still 116 last year, and he had the second highest OBP of his career.

He was shitty after the ASB, that doesn't mean someone is "finished".
The more I'm looking at his stats last season, the worse they look. .310 in Aug, .286 in April (albeit with his best monthly slugging for the year, .714), .280 in June. .203 in Sept, .200 in May, .176 in July.

Jeez, I'm going to be rooting for him to make this thread title not to come true. He's young! He can do it!

OK, I'll do a monthly update on him. He's off to a good spring training.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Trolling and trying to start flame wars is not OK is any context. We typically handle these types of warnings behind the scenes, but as this one is more glaring than others I figured that it would be an opportune time to use this as a reminder for us all

Rice4HOF

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For all the talk about how he dropped off, or played through injury....some of it COULD be attributed to just plain (bad) luck. I remember Bill James once simulated a star's career multiple times to see what outcome differences you could have.... after much googling, found our own @joyofsox posted about this here. Some notable quotes: "James concludes that it's possible for a player to hit .360 one year and .240 the next just by random chance". Read the whole article before concluding that Bryce Harper may be finished.
 

OilCanMDS

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For all the talk about how he dropped off, or played through injury....some of it COULD be attributed to just plain (bad) luck. I remember Bill James once simulated a star's career multiple times to see what outcome differences you could have.... after much googling, found our own @joyofsox posted about this here. Some notable quotes: "James concludes that it's possible for a player to hit .360 one year and .240 the next just by random chance". Read the whole article before concluding that Bryce Harper may be finished.
I live in DC so I have been forced to discuss how good Harper is with some of my friends here and something similar to this discussion has come up. I find Harper to be a complete enigma at this point.

Is Harper's drop related to luck? Is it injury? I'm not really sure, but I think his break out in 2015 is probably attributable to luck. With respect to his 2016 being attributable to bad luck, it's pretty easy to see that his BABIP was really low, especially relative to the rest of his career (2016-264; 2015-369; 2014-362; 2013-306; 2012-310). But, his batted ball profile suggests there should be a drop in BABIP because in 2016 he had a big drop in LD% and a spike in GB% and FB% (LD%: 2016-17.2; 2015-22.2; 2014-21.8; 2013-19.9; 2012-22.5). So maybe the BABIP drop is because of an injury that's causing him to hit the ball with less power and then some bad luck made it drop even further? His ISO also suggests he was battling some injuries because it dropped from 319 to 198. But, then when you look at the rest of his career, the 319 ISO looks like the big outlier (2016-198; 2015-319; 2014-151; 2013-212; 2012-206). Basically, I don't know what to make of Harper's last two years. I don't think he's finished. I also don't think he's as good as Mike Trout, which I was forced to argue about during his breakout in 2015. I think he will end up being a really good player, but may not reach the heights of his 2015 season again.
 

Apisith

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His batted balls velocity isn't good enough to sustain his crazy MVP year. That year was a lot of luck on batted balls. He's regressed but seems to have regressed more than his batted balls velocity would suggest he should.
 

DJnVa

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The more I'm looking at his stats last season, the worse they look. .310 in Aug, .286 in April (albeit with his best monthly slugging for the year, .714), .280 in June. .203 in Sept, .200 in May, .176 in July.

Jeez, I'm going to be rooting for him to make this thread title not to come true. He's young! He can do it!

OK, I'll do a monthly update on him. He's off to a good spring training.

I'm just confused as to why you jump from a guy having a bad year (by his standards) to "is he's done?" Hyperbole aside, it's just a very large leap.
 

grimshaw

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I think Bryce Harper is finished not being a perennial top 5 MVP candidate. He was a monster, and then he was very likely hurt. You don't go from an MVP caliber to a 2 win player in your early 20's unless there is something wrong with you physically. I guess unless you're Darin Erstad.
 
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canderson

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I think Bryce Harper is finished not being a perennial top 5 MVP candidate. He was a monster, and then he was very likely hurt. You don't go from an MVP caliber to a 2 win player in your early 20's unless there is something wrong with you physically. I guess unless you're Darin Erstad.
On the flip side since he's in his younger 20s there is plenty of time for healing.

Harper had a bad* half of the season. I'd kill for him to be for Boston still.

* relatively speaking
 

grimshaw

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On the flip side since he's in his younger 20s there is plenty of time for healing.

Harper had a bad* half of the season. I'd kill for him to be for Boston still.

* relatively speaking
Absolutely. And if Betts does what Harper did last year - would we think he was finished?
Actually . . . some of us probably would.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think Bryce Harper is finished not being a perennial top 5 MVP candidate. He was a monster, and then he was very likely hurt. You don't go from an MVP caliber to a 2 win player in your early 20's unless there is something wrong with you physically. I guess unless you're Darin Erstad.
His career WAR totals: 5.1, 3.7, 1.0, 9.9, 1.6. He also missed significant time in 2013 and 2014 with injuries. Excluding 2015, he's basically been a .270ish hitter with a .200ish ISO and a decent walk rate. Or 2015-2016 Jackie Bradley without the defense. Of course Harper's 2016 walk rate is double anything JBJ has done. Maybe that's part of Harper's problem. He got too selective. Or he's just been unlucky and will hit .300 this season with no other real change in his game and slash .300/.425/.500 and finish top 5 in MVP voting.

Harper is only 24 years old so the comparison isn't really good but 2015 is looking like Jacoby's 2011. I'm guessing he'll bounce back to being an MVP candidate this season but I think it's a legit question to ask what's up with Bryce Harper. He's definitely not finished though. dWAR is also all over the place with him. 1.4, -0.1, -0.7, 0.4, -1.0. A return to the positive in defense would change his WAR totals drastically.
 

grimshaw

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Harper is only 24 years old so the comparison isn't really good but 2015 is looking like Jacoby's 2011. I'm guessing he'll bounce back to being an MVP candidate this season but I think it's a legit question to ask what's up with Bryce Harper. He's definitely not finished though. dWAR is also all over the place with him. 1.4, -0.1, -0.7, 0.4, -1.0. A return to the positive in defense would change his WAR totals drastically.
I hadn't thought of Ellsbury - but I think most would argue that his year came out of nowhere and in retrospect not surprising it was an outlier. Harper's 2015 was not a big shock given the hype.

A better comparison - and again - I think Harper was hurt and will be a machine moving forward, would be Adrian Beltre. He was hyped as a superstar, came up very young (19 like Harper) and was a good but not great regular until he had a 9.5 WAR season in his age 25 season and then back down to a 3 win season. It took him another 6 years to crack 7 but he was upper third during that period. And 6 years later he's still awesome and padding the HoF resume.

I need at least another season of Harper being an average regular before thinking something was up. Even then - he's going to have the aura of "Is this the year he puts it back together?" for the next 3-4 years.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I hadn't thought of Ellsbury - but I think most would argue that his year came out of nowhere and in retrospect not surprising it was an outlier. Harper's 2015 was not a big shock given the hype.

A better comparison - and again - I think Harper was hurt and will be a machine moving forward, would be Adrian Beltre. He was hyped as a superstar, came up very young (19 like Harper) and was a good but not great regular until he had a 9.5 WAR season in his age 25 season and then back down to a 3 win season. It took him another 6 years to crack 7 but he was upper third during that period. And 6 years later he's still awesome and padding the HoF resume.

I need at least another season of Harper being an average regular before thinking something was up. Even then - he's going to have the aura of "Is this the year he puts it back together?" for the next 3-4 years.
In that regard, Andruw Jones would be the "cautionary tale" and that's a pretty good cautionary tale to have for another 6-8 years.
 

jon abbey

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2 HRs today including a game-winning 3 run HR in the bottom of the 9th, 1.099 OPS so far.
 

jon abbey

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Two more HRs and 5 RBIs in the first two innings tonight, OPS now 1.312.

I am excited to bump this thread all summer, please no one change the title.
 

soxhop411

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Two more HRs and 5 RBIs in the first two innings tonight, OPS now 1.312.

I am excited to bump this thread all summer, please no one change the title.

How can you post this without stating his numbers against Teheran?!?!?!

“@MarkZuckerman: Updated Harper career numbers vs. Teheran: 15-for-33, 3 2B, 7 HR, 17 RBI, 1.707 OPS”
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yr, OPS+, DWAR WAR

'12 118 1.4 5.3
'13 133 -0.1 3.7
'14 111 -0.7 1.0
'15 199 0.4 9.9
'16 116 -1.0 1.6
'17 264 0.1 1.3


I know it means nothing. Just funny how that works out sometimes. He's better with the bat and glove on odd years. '12 being the exception. He's almost offered just as much value this year in 14 games as he did in 147 games last year.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Yr, OPS+, DWAR WAR

'12 118 1.4 5.3
'13 133 -0.1 3.7
'14 111 -0.7 1.0
'15 199 0.4 9.9
'16 116 -1.0 1.6
'17 264 0.1 1.3


I know it means nothing. Just funny how that works out sometimes. He's better with the bat and glove on odd years. '12 being the exception. He's almost offered just as much value this year in 14 games as he did in 147 games last year.
Which is why WAR shouldn't be used in small samples for anything more than a laugh.

And the variation from year to year is basically his health. When healthy, Harper is arguably the best player in the world. Unfortunately, he's prone to getting banged up and playing through it, which leads to years like 2016. He's had issues with his hamstrings and knee, which would each impact both the bat and his range.

His DL stints were for the knee and his thumb, but the hamstring was rumored to linger all year after the initial incident.
 

dcmissle

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Which is why WAR shouldn't be used in small samples for anything more than a laugh.

And the variation from year to year is basically his health. When healthy, Harper is arguably the best player in the world. Unfortunately, he's prone to getting banged up and playing through it, which leads to years like 2016. He's had issues with his hamstrings and knee, which would each impact both the bat and his range.

His DL stints were for the knee and his thumb, but the hamstring was rumored to linger all year after the initial incident.
Yup. How great and lengthy his career is will turn on health, which is partially within his control based on his approach in the field and on the base paths. Balls out all the time, he's going to continue to have issues. I hope he can rein it in a bit.

He hasn't been open about this, so some people here were pointing to the genius Joe Maddon, who just would not pitch to him early last year. Which coincided with, but did not cause, the off season.

I can't wait until they get acquainted again, and Harper hits 6 bombs. Or Joe continues to walk Harper, and Daniel Murphy hits 12.
 

loshjott

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Yup. How great and lengthy his career is will turn on health, which is partially within his control based on his approach in the field and on the base paths. Balls out all the time, he's going to continue to have issues. I hope he can rein it in a bit.

He hasn't been open about this, so some people here were pointing to the genius Joe Maddon, who just would not pitch to him early last year. Which coincided with, but did not cause, the off season.

I can't wait until they get acquainted again, and Harper hits 6 bombs. Or Joe continues to walk Harper, and Daniel Murphy hits 12.
Yeah, one quality Ryan Zimmerman AB in that series would have ended that approach real fast.
 

jon abbey

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Heh, I did not know that, nice.
Yr, OPS+, DWAR WAR

'12 118 1.4 5.3
'13 133 -0.1 3.7
'14 111 -0.7 1.0
'15 199 0.4 9.9
'16 116 -1.0 1.6
'17 264 0.1 1.3


I know it means nothing. Just funny how that works out sometimes. He's better with the bat and glove on odd years. '12 being the exception. He's almost offered just as much value this year in 14 games as he did in 147 games last year.
Also he is still so young, he was 19 for the entire 2012 season and is still only 24. When someone is in the bigs that young, I think it's even harder to look at their record and gauge their true potential, he may still be getting better than even 2015.
 

terrynever

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Also he is still so young, he was 19 for the entire 2012 season and is still only 24. When someone is in the bigs that young, I think it's even harder to look at their record and gauge their true potential, he may still be getting better than even 2015.
Mantle came up at 19 and had his Triple Crown season in 1956 at 24, then hit .365 in 1957 and lost the batting title to a cranky old guy in Boston who hit .388 at age 39.
 

Dummy Hoy

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Crappy title aside, this was a good question. There were a couple of pretty reputable studies done last year using stat cast data that showed a significant drop in his power due to decrease in exit velocity and launch angle. Rob Arthur did one for 538 and I can't remember who did the other. Essentially they weren't sure if the outlier was his 2015 or last season, but saying it looked like it was his all world season. Arthur's concludes:
Even without 450-foot home runs, this diminished version of Bryce Harper remains a good ballplayer, a testament to the breadth and depth of his skills. But at the same time, this just isn’t the Harper we were all expecting to see after the historic performance he produced last season.
I'm glad to see Harper off to the start he is, but it's no means a given that he'll repeat his 2015 season...not that he needs to in order to be a star.
 

Kliq

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I expect Harper to have an elite season but as a Harper fantasy owner last year I'd like to point out he got off to a scorching hot start last year as well.