Is Sandy Leon a Major Difference Maker?

TheoShmeo

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We've seen the numbers. The Sox are 29-2 in Leon's last 31 starts.

We heard what Rick Porcello said about him last night. That he's the best defensive catcher Porcello has ever thrown to.

We've heard what Alex Cora has said about him. That he's the best catcher in baseball.

To the Cora point:

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/08/09/commentary-red-sox-catcher-leon-quietly-stands-out/

Leon has made some extraordinary plays over the last few weeks, one of which is discussed in the linked article. His play on last night's final out -- completing the out on the K/passed ball -- wasn't too shabby.

Yet, Leon has been released several times and has never been widely viewed as a star.

So what exactly do the Sox have here? Are Cora and Porcello just caught up in the moment and overly excited? Can 29-2 be credibly minimized because Leon is playing on such an incredible team? Or is Leon indeed a major difference maker?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Yet, Leon has been released several times and has never been widely viewed as a star.
Released several times by whom? He's never been released by anyone. The Nationals signed him initially as an international free agent in 2007. He remained in their system until they traded him to the Red Sox at the end of spring training 2015 because he was out of options. The Red Sox DFA'd him in 2015 in order to outright him to Pawtucket. He remained in the system in 2016 and they selected him back to the big league roster and he went on that hot streak in the second half. He's been with the Sox ever since.
 

luckysox

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Guys sure seem to like pitching to him. <Insert important stats here>. But also, they all talk about liking to throw to the guy. I think that makes, at the very least, a mental difference to pitchers, which has to count for an unquantifiable amount of something. Stats others will post plus the verbal praise the man gets means what we have here is the main catcher until he gets old and creaky, or until his bat completely disappears. As it is, his bat is perfectly acceptable for a catcher, and when he's hot, it really lengthens the heck out of the lineup. Whether he gets ridden like Varitek did in his prime will likely depend on Vaz being healthy again and being able to hit even a little, or Swihart learning so much at Sandy's knee that he becomes a little mini-Sandy. If neither of those things happen, Sandy's the main man, and the other guy, whoever it ends up being, will be a 2x a week guy. They'll wear Sandy right down to a little nub - and not just this season - if they really believe he affects the pitchers in such a positive way. So far, it sure seems like they believe that.
 

TheoShmeo

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Released several times by whom? He's never been released by anyone. The Nationals signed him initially as an international free agent in 2007. He remained in their system until they traded him to the Red Sox at the end of spring training 2015 because he was out of options. The Red Sox DFA'd him in 2015 in order to outright him to Pawtucket. He remained in the system in 2016 and they selected him back to the big league roster and he went on that hot streak in the second half. He's been with the Sox ever since.
Thanks for the correction.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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An interesting little story of the season that I don't think received very much coverage was Chris Sale's change from Vaz to Sandy. Sandy started the year as essentially Porcello's caddy. It's hard to tell what Cora was thinking, but his other starts in the beginning of the year seemed to be when Vaz needed a day off or Cora wanted a switch in the lineup. Sandy also caught Pom when he came back.

Vaz caught Sale most of the early part of the year. Then, one day, Sandy was behind the plate. Then a little back and forth until May 22 when it became Sandy's job. With Porcello and Sale and occasionally Pom, Sandy was already at the point of being a 50/50 guy rather than a backup when Vaz went on the disabled list.

I've never heard Sale talk about it. But there's no way this was coincidence and it seems like Sale must have expressed a preference that Cora has honored. There's never been doubt that Porcello loves Sandy. And so his postgame comments are hardly surprising. But it seems like Sale may silently agree.

Then there's David Price. Vaz was pretty close to Price's personal caddy for the first part of the year. Until Vaz's injury he caught 17 of Price's 18 starts. The one that Sandy caught was a 9 inning complete game. Since Vaz was injured, Price has pitched five games to Sandy. He's 3-0 in those games and the Sox are 5-0. He's averaged over 6.5 innings per start. 1.64 ERA with an OPS against by opponents of .579. Not a very big sample but it will be interesting to see who catches Price coming down the stretch for the season.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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An interesting little story of the season that I don't think received very much coverage was Chris Sale's change from Vaz to Sandy. Sandy started the year as essentially Porcello's caddy. It's hard to tell what Cora was thinking, but his other starts in the beginning of the year seemed to be when Vaz needed a day off or Cora wanted a switch in the lineup. Sandy also caught Pom when he came back.

Vaz caught Sale most of the early part of the year. Then, one day, Sandy was behind the plate. Then a little back and forth until May 22 when it became Sandy's job. With Porcello and Sale and occasionally Pom, Sandy was already at the point of being a 50/50 guy rather than a backup when Vaz went on the disabled list.

I've never heard Sale talk about it. But there's no way this was coincidence and it seems like Sale must have expressed a preference that Cora has honored. There's never been doubt that Porcello loves Sandy. And so his postgame comments are hardly surprising. But it seems like Sale may silently agree.

Then there's David Price. Vaz was pretty close to Price's personal caddy for the first part of the year. Until Vaz's injury he caught 17 of Price's 18 starts. The one that Sandy caught was a 9 inning complete game. Since Vaz was injured, Price has pitched five games to Sandy. He's 3-0 in those games and the Sox are 5-0. He's averaged over 6.5 innings per start. 1.64 ERA with an OPS against by opponents of .579. Not a very big sample but it will be interesting to see who catches Price coming down the stretch for the season.
Sandy better start every postseason game with numbers like that.
 

dwainw

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Released several times by whom? He's never been released by anyone. The Nationals signed him initially as an international free agent in 2007. He remained in their system until they traded him to the Red Sox at the end of spring training 2015 because he was out of options. The Red Sox DFA'd him in 2015 in order to outright him to Pawtucket. He remained in the system in 2016 and they selected him back to the big league roster and he went on that hot streak in the second half. He's been with the Sox ever since.
During at least a couple of broadcasts Dave O'Brien has mentioned how Mike Rizzo has regretted trading Sandy Leon ever since. Whether that is based on his subsequent performance with the Red Sox or that they recognized his potential early on, praise offered in that manner (at the GMs own expense) is worth noting.
 

timlinin8th

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During at least a couple of broadcasts Dave O'Brien has mentioned how Mike Rizzo has regretted trading Sandy Leon ever since. Whether that is based on his subsequent performance with the Red Sox or that they recognized his potential early on, praise offered in that manner (at the GMs own expense) is worth noting.
I’m sure no small part of that regret is tied to the fact that the Red Sox gave up absolutely nothing to get Leon. Cash considerations for a guy who has managed to stick on the big league roster? That’s a steal.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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9: Percent of pitches in the strike zone called balls when Sandy Leon is catching
If that sounds like a lot … well, it’s not. Among those who have caught at least 1,000 pitches, Leon has the lowest rate of those that actually were in the zone called for balls, according to StatCorner. Which means he is excellent at making umpires see what they actually should be seeing. Overall, StatCorner’s ranking of Leon as +58 means he has stolen strikes at the best clip in the American League. Baseball Prospectus’ framing metric doesn’t rate him quite as high, but it still has Leon well above average. It’s no wonder Red Sox pitchers love throwing to Leon. They are 28-2 in the last 30 games he has started.
A relevant (and interesting) tidbit hidden in a nice read from Passan at Yahoo!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yahoo.com/amphtml/sports/117-reasons-love-2018-boston-red-sox-164316247.html
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I’m sure no small part of that regret is tied to the fact that the Red Sox gave up absolutely nothing to get Leon. Cash considerations for a guy who has managed to stick on the big league roster? That’s a steal.
He let him go in favor of keeping Jose Lobaton to back up Wilson Ramos (who was succeeded by Weiters). Lobaton hit .197/.278/.309 in 427 PA (134 games) from 2015 through 2017. Leon, meanwhile, hit .251/.312/.375 in 712 PA (204 games) in Boston over the same stretch. And obviously he's still going. A case where Rizzo should have stuck with the youth (Leon is four years younger and had more years of control).
 

tonyarmasjr

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This has come up in the Swihart thread, and it's an interesting discussion. If we really think he's a chief factor in that 29-2, we can probably save a lot of money not re-signing or extending some guys this offseason while still being a really, really good team... He has a .267 wOBA over this stretch. That's an awful lot of defensive value he must be providing to have a significant positive impact on the team's W/L record. How does his record compare to other catchers' on his teams throughout his career? How about Sale's, Porcello's, and Price's performance with and without him behind the plate in previous years? Other pitchers'? Is this phenomenon isolated to 2018?

Catcher defense and all the ancillary effects that come with it is not valued properly. I would think someone somewhere is working on a system that offers a better picture. But how do you accurately quantify the effects of pitcher comfort or confidence, pitch sequencing, in-game adjustments to hitters, pitch framing, and the like? And those kinds of things certainly have a greater impact on outcomes than throwing out 45% of base-stealers vs. 35%. For decades, it's been common thought that having a solid defensive catcher is more important than him being able to hit a lick. Is it possible that the difference between a really good defensive catcher and an average one is something like 5+ WAR? Because that's what's implied when we're attributing even a small portion of a 29-2 stretch to a catcher who can't hit.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Those are such good intangibles, Leon should be made captain.

Seriously, though. I don’t know how it would be possible to measure the psychological aspect of the kind of positive feedback loop we’re talking about here, as a matter of pitcher “wins” or “runs” above an average or replacement-level catcher, whatever that might be.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
How about Sale's, Porcello's, and Price's performance with and without him behind the plate in previous years?
Numbers are ERA, OPS allowed, K/BB; these are all career splits, so they include this year.

Porcello
Leon: 4.06, .729, 4.84
Vazquez: 4.15, .737, 3.44
Swihart: 4.55, .770, 4.17

Sale
Leon: 2.40, .556, 7.61
Vazquez: 3.38, .658, 3.93
Swihart: none

Price
Leon: 2.78, .640, 5.83
Vazquez: 4.32, .735, 3.41
Swihart: 5.73, .646, 4.50

I mean....damn.

OTOH, Edro is almost exactly the same pitcher (basically a slightly improved version of Porcello-to-Vazquez) to all three; no significant differences in any of those columns.
 
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DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I know it's no substitute for the numbers, but I still view Sale's decision to switch from Vaz to Sandy early in the year when both were healthy as quite significant. There may not be a pitcher in the majors who relies as heavily on his catcher as Sale does. It's a major vote of confidence.

If it turns out he's also a David Price whisperer, his value to the team goes up immensely given that there's still $125 million worth of value to try to capture there to break even.
 

teddywingman

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The K/BB numbers are what really jump out to me. ERA and OPS could be more easily dismissed as coincidence, but K/BB? How can those numbers not be a direct result of who's catching?
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Is there any way to know number of pitches that are thrown by these starters depending on who is catching? Like in some format that's normalized, like per batter or inning?

My perception is that pitchers are a bit more efficient when they are pitching to Sandy. I used game logs in a gamethread early in the year to figure out the difference between Sandy and Vaz to one of the pitchers -- I think EdRo -- and there was a difference of a pitch or two per inning as I recall the data. I think Vaz seems to be more predictable with "waste" pitches and maybe even letting batters back in after difficult counts.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The K/BB numbers are what really jump out to me. ERA and OPS could be more easily dismissed as coincidence, but K/BB? How can those numbers not be a direct result of who's catching?
Are pitchers getting more Ks or fewer walks when throwing to Leon rather than Vazquez or Swihart? I can see a catcher influencing K totals with their sequencing and pitch selection. I'm unsure how that sort of thing affects walks. Is it how they present themselves as a target behind the plate?

I remember Clemens talking about the differences in how catchers set up and how it affected his approach. Some catchers just set up square to the plate and the pitcher aims at his knees and shoulders to hit the corners. Some move around and center themselves behind the target spot so the pitcher's always throwing to the mitt. The latter seems to be the more common approach now a days (Clemens was commenting on it back in the late 80s). Can the hows and whens of the catcher doing that affect the pitcher's control? Or does it come down to framing and stealing more strikes?
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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The K/BB numbers are what really jump out to me. ERA and OPS could be more easily dismissed as coincidence, but K/BB? How can those numbers not be a direct result of who's catching?
Because the K/BB gets generated against different batters with different skills, with calls made by different umpires behind the plate?

I should mention that I don’t dispute the “reality” of a Sandy León effect. Every pitcher always repeats the old adage that the most important thing to pitching well is to be able to focus on throwing the next pitch with conviction. Sandy appears to have won the full trust of some of the best starting pitchers in the league, and has them believing in his ability to help them do just that.

So I would never say there isn’t a qualitative difference between León and the other catchers on the team, but I don’t have any idea how the delta could be quantified, given the huge number of possible variables (defense personnel, shifts, opposing team, batter tendencies, game score, umpire, what pitch the pitcher “has working” or not, etc. and etc.).
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Are pitchers getting more Ks or fewer walks when throwing to Leon rather than Vazquez or Swihart? I can see a catcher influencing K totals with their sequencing and pitch selection. I'm unsure how that sort of thing affects walks. Is it how they present themselves as a target behind the plate?
It's definitely more about the walks. Porcello and Sale have higher K rates with Leon behind the plate, but not by much (and keep in mind both have thrown a lot more to Leon than to Vaz, especially Sale). Price actually has a higher K rate with Vazquez behind the plate. But all of them have significantly lower walk rates with Leon catching. In Price's case the BB/9 is almost twice as high pitching to Vazquez.

Here are the differences (K/9 then BB/9--just Leon and Vazquez since Swihart has so few innings):

Sale
Leon: 13.5, 1.8
Vazquez: 11.0, 2.8

Price
Leon: 8.3, 1.4
Vazquez: 9.2, 2.7

Porcello
Leon: 8.3, 1.7
Vazquez: 7.9, 2.3

I think the obvious explanation here (nicely borne out in this piece from yesterday) is probably the true one:

Every pitcher always repeats the old adage that the most important thing to pitching well is to be able to focus on throwing the next pitch with conviction. Sandy appears to have won the full trust of some of the best starting pitchers in the league, and has them believing in his ability to help them do just that.
This makes sense in terms of the walk rate differential, because it stands to reason that pitchers who feel confident they're throwing the right pitch are more likely to attack the zone with it.