It's time to go to WAR

stepson_and_toe

New Member
Aug 11, 2019
386
There is an article on the ESPN site by Sam Miller, "How is WAR calculated, really? Breaking down a single play to find out."

Miller, with the help of some others who he credits, looked at a play in a game between the Braves and the Reds and broke it down second by second, describing whose WAR went up or down on its individual components. He also notes the variations among the versions of WAR used by FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference, as well as discussing players whose WAR was not affected but perhaps should have been.

The play was scored as "Single to RF (Line Drive to Short CF-RF); Lorenzen to 3B; Peraza out at 2B" (because he slid past the bag when he tried to return to 2nd after rounding the bag). The play itself took just over 9 seconds and there is a video of it linked in the article.

Interesting.
 

teddywingman

Looks like Zach Galifianakis
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2009
11,211
a basement on the hill
Cool article.

The fact that the author, who watched this play more than anyone, admits that he isn't sure of the various defensive values (at least, especially the defense values) helps me understand a little more about how defensive metrics are not reliable.

But that is a fascinating breakdown.