Jaguars Game Goat Thread

[Cellar-Door]

They could and should have spent more in free agency but that's only part of the story. Having 35m in cap space isn't unprecedented or that far off the league average. Its when you combine that kind of cap usage with (a) also having above average dead cap and (b) also being above average in terms of players on PUP/IR/exempt list that it becomes crippling. The Pats currently have 142m in players on the active roster, which is dead last in a league that averages about 180m. The teams they played the last two weeks are both around 192m.

None of this is to excuse Wolf. That the Pats had above average dead money should have created incentives to spend toward the cap, not to save. And while he couldn't have predicted the injuries/suspensions, the Pats are above average in that regard but not near the top.

Overall even if you're spending and drafting wisely (which we're not), its hard to compete with 142m in players on your roster against teams with 192m in players on theirs.

Honestly I think the process of the offseason was pretty decent. The re-signed the guys they should have, let guys who weren't value walk, they went after top tier talent and when they missed the filled out a bunch of spots with mid-level vets. The problems were:
1. The mid-level at a few key positons was worse than usual
2. They missed on a few of the most important (Okorafor, Takitaki)

I think there is good reason to think the first FA period was a bust, but it wasn't because they didn't sign enough guys, it's because the guys they signed got hurt, disappointed or both.

Next year looks like it's going to be a deeper/better class at our key positions, and we'll have a very good pick without needing a QB, which should give them real options in the draft. Next offseason to me is the big one where you can start to really judge Wolf.

 

[mcpickl]

This team sucks, but just about every problem they have was a problem last year too. I can't put it all on the shoulders of Mayo and Wolf. What quality pieces did they inherit?

I hope they think they inherited some quality pieces. They've already re-signed or extended at least a dozen players they inherited, and some of them to serious money.

Christian Barmore
Kyle Dugger
Michael Onwenu
David Andrews
Kendrick Bourne
Jahlani Tavai
Jabril Peppers
Hunter Henry
Josh Uche
Anfernee Jennings
Rhamondre Stevenson
Davon Godchaux

All since this regime took over. I'd hope they think they are quality pieces since they didn't need to extend them. Otherwise, I have some serious questions about their process.

Plus Matthew Judon being quality enough to fetch a third round pick., and guys still ineligible to extend as of yet on rookie deals (Gonzalez, Keion, Demario, Marcus Jones)

They obviously weren't left a full cupboard, but it wasn't empty either.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Honestly I think the process of the offseason was pretty decent. The re-signed the guys they should have, let guys who weren't value walk, they went after top tier talent and when they missed the filled out a bunch of spots with mid-level vets. The problems were:
1. The mid-level at a few key positons was worse than usual
2. They missed on a few of the most important (Okorafor, Takitaki)

I think there is good reason to think the first FA period was a bust, but it wasn't because they didn't sign enough guys, it's because the guys they signed got hurt, disappointed or both.

Next year looks like it's going to be a deeper/better class at our key positions, and we'll have a very good pick without needing a QB, which should give them real options in the draft. Next offseason to me is the big one where you can start to really judge Wolf.

I think that's fair. Maybe Wolf could have been a bit more aggressive in that mid-level market in a couple positions but it wasn't like it was disastrous.

I agree that the 2025 offseason looks massive. We currently have 137m in projected cap space and not a lot of free agents that look like must resigns.

 

[BaseballJones]

Honestly I think the process of the offseason was pretty decent. The re-signed the guys they should have, let guys who weren't value walk, they went after top tier talent and when they missed the filled out a bunch of spots with mid-level vets. The problems were:
1. The mid-level at a few key positons was worse than usual
2. They missed on a few of the most important (Okorafor, Takitaki)

I think there is good reason to think the first FA period was a bust, but it wasn't because they didn't sign enough guys, it's because the guys they signed got hurt, disappointed or both.

Next year looks like it's going to be a deeper/better class at our key positions, and we'll have a very good pick without needing a QB, which should give them real options in the draft. Next offseason to me is the big one where you can start to really judge Wolf.

I don't know the draft class very well but there's always 2-3 excellent tackles and several true WR1 types available. The Pats will pick like top 3 again, maybe even #1, which would mean they also get #33 - basically another first round pick. Here's their full slate of picks:

• Round 1
• Round 2
• Round 3
• Round 3 (from the Falcons for Matthew Judon)
• Round 4
• Round 5
• Round 6 (traded to Chargers for J.C. Jackson)
• Round 7
• Round 7 (received from Chargers, Browns, or Vikings)
• Round 7 (received from Titans for Nick Folk)

That's a lot of ammo. Let's say they trade the #1 or #2 pick for a later first round pick plus a second rounder and maybe a second rounder in 2026, they could, say, draft #15, #33, #47, #65, and, say, #75, plus have the extra second rounder in 2026. So that's five of the first 75 picks in the draft. They should be able to get a bunch of quality players and fill the OL holes plus add help at WR and on D.

Based on a 7-round mock draft I've seen, that could be like:

#15 - OT Banks, Texas
#33 - WR Egbuka, Ohio St
#47 - G Jackson, Ohio St
#65 - S Sabb, Alabama
#75 - CB Hallman, Wisconsin

Plus tons of money to spend in FA. I think they could turn things around pretty quickly.

 

[moondog80]

They obviously weren't left a full cupboard, but it wasn't empty either.

They picked 3rd in the draft for a reason. If this past draft turns out to be a dud (other than Maye), it will fit right in among recent drafts.

 

[8slim]

I think that's fair. Maybe Wolf could have been a bit more aggressive in that mid-level market in a couple positions but it wasn't like it was disastrous.

I agree that the 2025 offseason looks massive. We currently have 137m in projected cap space and not a lot of free agents that look like must resigns.

I can’t see Kraft moving on from Mayo/Wolf yet, so I agree that next offseason is make or break for this regime. And there can’t be more excuse making about there being no one to sign, or guys not wanting to play here. Wolf’s got months to figure that shit out. It’s his job.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I don't know the draft class very well but there's always 2-3 excellent tackles and several true WR1 types available. The Pats will pick like top 3 again, maybe even #1, which would mean they also get #33 - basically another first round pick. Here's their full slate of picks:

• Round 1
• Round 2
• Round 3
• Round 3 (from the Falcons for Matthew Judon)
• Round 4
• Round 5
• Round 6 (traded to Chargers for J.C. Jackson)
• Round 7
• Round 7 (received from Chargers, Browns, or Vikings)
• Round 7 (received from Titans for Nick Folk)

That's a lot of ammo. Let's say they trade the #1 or #2 pick for a later first round pick plus a second rounder and maybe a second rounder in 2026, they could, say, draft #15, #33, #47, #65, and, say, #75, plus have the extra second rounder in 2026. So that's five of the first 75 picks in the draft. They should be able to get a bunch of quality players and fill the OL holes plus add help at WR and on D.

Based on a 7-round mock draft I've seen, that could be like:

#15 - OT Banks, Texas
#33 - WR Egbuka, Ohio St
#47 - G Jackson, Ohio St
#65 - S Sabb, Alabama
#75 - CB Hallman, Wisconsin

Plus tons of money to spend in FA. I think they could turn things around pretty quickly.

It's very very early, but my guess is Banks goes top 10, maybe top 5 unless something major changes, Egbuka I'd expect to go top 20.

Overall though, yeah. This draft is much weaker at OT/WR/QB than last year's but that still means the Patriots should have a shot at one of the top guys at either position (Campbell, Banks, etc at OT or McMillan, Burden, etc. at WR) if they want it, and be in position to trade down if they get good offers and pick up 2 guys at premium positions, though that might mean 1 is a non-OT, non-WR.

They picked 3rd in the draft for a reason. If this past draft turns out to be a dud (other than Maye), it will fit right in among recent drafts.

Yeah, they finished 3rd despite having an all-time great coach and not doing the kind of tanking WAS did.

 

[lexrageorge]

White, Wise, Godchaux (their guy they re-signed), Uche, Ekuale, Jennings, Tavai…this should at least be a competent, competitive unit, even if they are not setting the world on fire or even average. These guys are showing flat out regression.

I understand some very good players are gone, but this is not a new phenomenon. Players are hurt all the time. These guys were at least competitive and not getting run on by 2nd and 3rd string RB 20 times in a row.

White has seemingly disappeared. Don't know why - maybe teams saw enough film to figure out how to neutralize him.

Wise, Godchaux, Uche, et al are all JAGs on their better days, and they are all a year older than last season (some players fall off a cliff early - just happens). At some point, you need star caliber players on the unit. Had that with Judon and Barmore last year - both are gone. Gonzalez hasn't progressed - potentially damning on the coaching.

 

[lexrageorge]

Yeah, players are going to..:checks notes….Tennessee, Carolina, Las Vegas, New York Giants and Carolina for rings.

Carolina spent 258M on free agents last off-season (21 players)

Tennessee spent 238M (18 players)

Washington spent 167M (33 players)

New England spent 135M (17 players) including re-signing Onwenu, Bourne, Uche, Jennings, Reagor

One of those things is not like the other despite all those teams being awful last year and unknown this year (no proven elite QB or big name head coach)

Carolina and Tennessee will be fighting the Pats for the #1 pick. Those players obviously haven't worked out too well for them.

 

[Cellar-Door]

White has seemingly disappeared. Don't know why - maybe teams saw enough film to figure out how to neutralize him.

Wise, Godchaux, Uche, et al are all JAGs on their better days, and they are all a year older than last season (some players fall off a cliff early - just happens). At some point, you need star caliber players on the unit. Had that with Judon and Barmore last year - both are gone. Gonzalez hasn't progressed - potentially damning on the coaching.

Teams aren't surprised by him moving around anymore, and one thing they are doing is.... when he shifts they just kill/can into a run and rip off a 9 yard gain right where he was before he moved.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Most years there are 10-20 “first round” caliber players in the draft. This year is the lower end of that range and maybe only 1-3 true “blue chip” talent. So I don’t think pick 33 is like another first @BaseballJones this year. Sorry.

 

[Patsfan1983]

Nothing Bill himself has said about Maye leads me to believe he thought he was worthy of the 3rd overall pick.

Bill does a review of the QBs I think in the preseason and he bashes the Maye pick and strongly hints to taking Bo Nix if he had the choice. He 100% trades down with the Giants and takes Nix at 6.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I can’t see Kraft moving on from Mayo/Wolf yet, so I agree that next offseason is make or break for this regime. And there can’t be more excuse making about there being no one to sign, or guys not wanting to play here. Wolf’s got months to figure that shit out. It’s his job.

I'd be shocked if Wolf's job is in jeopardy. But Mayo may end up being an interesting test for Kraft, depending on how things go the rest of the year. Right now 1-16 or 2-15 seem like legit possibilities for this team and a lot of head coaches don't survive a 1-2 win season, even if its their first. When they do, its almost always a bad decision. Zac Taylor is the only head coach I can think of in the modern salary cap/free agency era who survived a 0-2 win season and it turned out to be a good decision for the organization. There is probably somebody I'm forgetting but its definitely not a big list. Going back slightly further there was Jimmy Johnson but that was a different era of team construction.

In the vast, vast majority of cases when your team only wins 1-2 games in the modern NFL it has meant you suck in some fundamental way as a head coach and you have no real future as one.

 

[SMU_Sox]

The run blocking sucked today. Seemed like the WRs weren’t separating. Edges, DL, ILBs couldn’t consistently stop the run. Gonzo gave up some plays again. Tackling was poor. Polk couldn’t make 2 tougher catches and then fucking tripped. Seems like almost everyone sucked. Coaching wasn’t great either.

We knew they were a shit roster and they couldn’t rebuild it in one offseason. But Wolf’s draft after Maye has been a bunch of 0s… he could have gone in a lot of directions at 37 and 68. There were better consensus players on the board and valuable positions to be had. He didn’t have to reach.
It’s better to suffer through roster rot than reach for positions.

 

[8slim]

I'd be shocked if Wolf's job is in jeopardy. But Mayo may end up being an interesting test for Kraft, depending on how things go the rest of the year. Right now 1-16 or 2-15 seem like legit possibilities for this team and a lot of head coaches don't survive a 1-2 win season, even if its their first. When they do, its almost always a bad decision. Zac Taylor is the only head coach I can think of in the modern salary cap/free agency era who survived a 0-2 win season and it turned out to be a good decision for the organization. There is probably somebody I'm forgetting but its definitely not a big list. Going back slightly further there was Jimmy Johnson but that was a different era of team construction.

In the vast, vast majority of cases when your team only wins 1-2 games it means you suck in some fundamental way as a head coach and you're never going to be very good.

I can’t disagree with any of that. I just think it’d be extremely difficult for Kraft to admit all his talk this offseason about him knowing Mayo was the guy was pure nonsense. The ego that kicked BB to the curb likely isn’t going to allow him to admit the Mayo hiring was a poor decision.

 

[BaseballJones]

Most years there are 10-20 “first round” caliber players in the draft. This year is the lower end of that range and maybe only 1-3 true “blue chip” talent. So I don’t think pick 33 is like another first @BaseballJones this year. Sorry.

Well if there are only 1-3 blue chip guys, the Pats should be able to get one of them, and thus will be one of the few teams really able to improve themselves through the draft.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I can’t disagree with any of that. I just think it’d be extremely difficult for Kraft to admit all his talk this offseason about him knowing Mayo was the guy was pure nonsense. The ego that kicked BB to the curb likely isn’t going to allow him to admit the Mayo hiring was a poor decision.

Yeah, I'm afraid you may be right. The Browns hired Hue Jackson, he went 1-15, Jimmy Haslam brought him back and he went 0-16, and then he brought him back for a third season after that. Bad owners do crazy shit and right now evidence is leaning toward Bob Kraft becoming a bad owner.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Well if there are only 1-3 blue chip guys, the Pats should be able to get one of them, and thus will be one of the few teams really able to improve themselves through the draft.

It is possible that 2 of them are corners. I’ll actually have time to do my deep dive this year.

That is something I have mentioned to @Super Nomario … we might be in a class where there are 2 “top 5” guys in the draft and they both play corner. The Michigan guy and Travis Hunter (he also plays WR).

In that case my thought is I would much rather just trade down, stockpile as many picks as we can, and attack this from a volume strategy. That’s the best way to win the draft.

Edit: I know they both play outside corner. I am not sure if they can also play in the slot.

 

[BaseballJones]

I'd be shocked if Wolf's job is in jeopardy. But Mayo may end up being an interesting test for Kraft, depending on how things go the rest of the year. Right now 1-16 or 2-15 seem like legit possibilities for this team and a lot of head coaches don't survive a 1-2 win season, even if its their first. When they do, its almost always a bad decision. Zac Taylor is the only head coach I can think of in the modern salary cap/free agency era who survived a 0-2 win season and it turned out to be a good decision for the organization. There is probably somebody I'm forgetting but its definitely not a big list. Going back slightly further there was Jimmy Johnson but that was a different era of team construction.

In the vast, vast majority of cases when your team only wins 1-2 games in the modern NFL it has meant you suck in some fundamental way as a head coach and you have no real future as one.

I know you said "vast, vast majority" and not "all". Only 11 teams in NFL history went 1-15

Jimmy Johnson - 1989 Cowboys - 1-15 (obviously a great coach)
Dick Nolan - 1980 Saints - 1-15 (11 years, won 8+ games 4 times, including a 10-3 season in 1970)
George Seifert - 2001 Panthers - 1-15 (terrific HC who won 2 Super Bowls)
Doug Marrone - 2020 Jaguars - 1-15 (not good but did have a 9-7 season and a 10-6 season)
Herm Edwards - 2008 Chiefs - 2-14 (four seasons with 9+ wins, 4 playoff appearances)
Mike Caldwell - 2011 Colts - 2-14 (62-50 career record, 5x with 9+ wins, 3x with 10+ wins, 4 playoff appearances)
Art Shell - 2006 Raiders - 2-14 (56-52 career record, 4x with 9+ wins, 2x with 10+ wins, 3 playoff appearances)
Chip Kelly - 2016 49ers - 2-14 (sub-.500 record, but 2x with 10+ wins)

So yeah, most coaches of 1-2 win teams were bad coaches. But there's a surprising number of pretty decent (or even excellent) coaches who had a season with 1 or 2 wins.

 

[BaseballJones]

It is possible that 2 of them are corners. I’ll actually have time to do my deep dive this year.

That is something I have mentioned to @Super Nomario … we might be in a class where there are 2 “top 5” guys in the draft and they both play corner. The Michigan guy and Travis Hunter (he also plays WR).

In that case my thought is I would much rather just trade down, stockpile as many picks as we can, and attack this from a volume strategy. That’s the best way to win the draft.

Edit: I know they both play outside corner. I am not sure if they can also play in the slot.

Well clearly they need corners too. Suddenly that's a position of need, not excess.

 

[8slim]

I know you said "vast, vast majority" and not "all". Only 11 teams in NFL history went 1-15

Jimmy Johnson - 1989 Cowboys - 1-15 (obviously a great coach)
Dick Nolan - 1980 Saints - 1-15 (11 years, won 8+ games 4 times, including a 10-3 season in 1970)
George Seifert - 2001 Panthers - 1-15 (terrific HC who won 2 Super Bowls)
Doug Marrone - 2020 Jaguars - 1-15 (not good but did have a 9-7 season and a 10-6 season)
Herm Edwards - 2008 Chiefs - 2-14 (four seasons with 9+ wins, 4 playoff appearances)
Mike Caldwell - 2011 Colts - 2-14 (62-50 career record, 5x with 9+ wins, 3x with 10+ wins, 4 playoff appearances)
Art Shell - 2006 Raiders - 2-14 (56-52 career record, 4x with 9+ wins, 2x with 10+ wins, 3 playoff appearances)
Chip Kelly - 2016 49ers - 2-14 (sub-.500 record, but 2x with 10+ wins)

So yeah, most coaches of 1-2 win teams were bad coaches. But there's a surprising number of pretty decent (or even excellent) coaches who had a season with 1 or 2 wins.

You forgot Rod Rust.

 

[Cellar-Door]

It is possible that 2 of them are corners. I’ll actually have time to do my deep dive this year.

That is something I have mentioned to @Super Nomario … we might be in a class where there are 2 “top 5” guys in the draft and they both play corner. The Michigan guy and Travis Hunter (he also plays WR).

In that case my thought is I would much rather just trade down, stockpile as many picks as we can, and attack this from a volume strategy. That’s the best way to win the draft.

Edit: I know they both play outside corner. I am not sure if they can also play in the slot.

Yeah barring a change, if they get the #1, I'd want to trade down. I do like McMillan a lot, but not sure he's good enough to be better than more assets and a guy like Burden or one of the OTs.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Yeah barring a change, if they get the #1, I'd want to trade down. I do like McMillan a lot, but not sure he's good enough to be better than more assets and a guy like Burden or one of the OTs.

And SOMEONE will want to move up for a QB, that’s just how it is in the top 5 of the draft now.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Well clearly they need corners too. Suddenly that's a position of need, not excess.

Corner is such a volatile position. This team doesn’t have any position of excess. To me if you have a high pick and you can’t get OT, Edge, IDL, or WR (or QB obviously) you best trade down. I wouldn’t want to take a corner in the top 5 and prefer not to in the top 10. So yeah trade down. Plus, where do you put CB2 anyway? We need one but I think it’s lower on the list.

Quick edit: I would trade down anyway.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I know you said "vast, vast majority" and not "all". Only 11 teams in NFL history went 1-15

Jimmy Johnson - 1989 Cowboys - 1-15 (obviously a great coach)
Dick Nolan - 1980 Saints - 1-15 (11 years, won 8+ games 4 times, including a 10-3 season in 1970)
George Seifert - 2001 Panthers - 1-15 (terrific HC who won 2 Super Bowls)
Doug Marrone - 2020 Jaguars - 1-15 (not good but did have a 9-7 season and a 10-6 season)
Herm Edwards - 2008 Chiefs - 2-14 (four seasons with 9+ wins, 4 playoff appearances)
Mike Caldwell - 2011 Colts - 2-14 (62-50 career record, 5x with 9+ wins, 3x with 10+ wins, 4 playoff appearances)
Art Shell - 2006 Raiders - 2-14 (56-52 career record, 4x with 9+ wins, 2x with 10+ wins, 3 playoff appearances)
Chip Kelly - 2016 49ers - 2-14 (sub-.500 record, but 2x with 10+ wins)

So yeah, most coaches of 1-2 win teams were bad coaches. But there's a surprising number of pretty decent (or even excellent) coaches who had a season with 1 or 2 wins.

The pre-salary cap/modern agency era is just so different in terms of the competitive landscape that I think its largely irrelevant.

In the 1994 and on era, the other guys on the 2-14 or worse list are Hue Jackson, Steve Spagnuolo, Jim Schwartz, Romeo Crennel, Mike Mularkey, Ken Whisenhunt, Lovie Smith, Adam Gase, John Fox, Herm Edwards, Rod Marinelli, Cam Cameron, Dom Capers, Dennis Erickson, Dick Lebeau, Marty Mornhinweg, Mike Riley, Chris Palmer, and Rich Kotite. Its largely a murderers' row of terrible coaches. And the best guys are almost all coaches at the very end of their careers' who actually retired after their terrible season, an admission that they just didn't have it anymore. George Seifert, Art Shell, Dennis Ericksen, and Dom Capers all fall into that group. Chip Kelly kind of fits there too, although he was younger when hanging it up. And Lovie Smith didn't retire immediately but he had the same kind of trajectory. That 2-14 season was the beginning of the end for him.

Other than Zac Taylor the only head coaches I see that went on to even moderately successful careers afterward were John Fox and Jim Caldwell. The bottom line for me is that 2 wins or worse is pretty good evidence that you shouldn't bet on a head coach going forward, whether that's a young guy at the beginning of his career who is in over his head (the Adam Gase model) or a more established coach who the game has probably passed by. Over the last 30 years if NFL teams had a decision rule where they automatically fired anybody who won 2 or fewer games they would never have gone all that wrong as far as I can tell.

 

[BaseballJones]

The pre-salary cap/modern agency era is just so different in terms of the competitive landscape that I think its largely irrelevant.

In the 1994 and on era, the other guys on the 2-14 or worse list are Hue Jackson, Steve Spagnuolo, Jim Schwartz, Romeo Crennel, Mike Mularkey, Ken Whisenhunt, Lovie Smith, Adam Gase, John Fox, Herm Edwards, Rod Marinelli, Cam Cameron, Dom Capers, Dennis Erickson, Dick Lebeau, Marty Mornhinweg, Mike Riley, Chris Palmer, and Rich Kotite. Its largely a murderers' row of terrible coaches. And the best guys are almost all coaches at the very end of their careers' who actually retired after their terrible season, an admission that they just didn't have it anymore. George Seifert, Art Shell, Dennis Ericksen, and Dom Capers all fall into that group. Chip Kelly kind of fits there too, although he was younger when hanging it up. And Lovie Smith didn't retire immediately but he had the same kind of trajectory. That 2-14 season was the beginning of the end for him.

Other than Zac Taylor the only head coaches I see that went on to even moderately successful careers afterward were John Fox and Jim Caldwell. The bottom line for me is that 2 wins or worse is pretty good evidence that you shouldn't bet on a head coach going forward, whether that's a young guy at the beginning of his career who is in over his head (the Adam Gase model) or a more established coach who the game has probably passed by. Over the last 30 years if NFL teams had a decision rule where they automatically fired anybody who won 2 or fewer games they would never have gone all that wrong as far as I can tell.

Yeah I’m not disagreeing with your larger point. Just pointing out that there have been some good coaches to have 1 or 2 win seasons.

 

[lexrageorge]

Bill does a review of the QBs I think in the preseason and he bashes the Maye pick and strongly hints to taking Bo Nix if he had the choice. He 100% trades down with the Giants and takes Nix at 6.

Bo Nix is by far the most overrated QB on these forums. Fortunately, Bill's opinion on this particular matter has zero weight.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I don't care what the Broncos record is. Bo Nix is absolutely TERRIBLE.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Yeah I don't know if anyone watched the Thursday night game last week, but Nix had a handful of throws that were so mindblowingly bad that it was hard to figure out who he might be throwing too. Nobody around him, not even hurried...and I don't mean that a throw sailed on him a bit. I was watching with a crowd and we kept staring at each other, mouths agape. I honestly don't think that I've ever seen someone with worse mechanics and footwork. He might be something someday, but nobody should be jonesing for Bo Nix.

 

[rodderick]

Yeah I don't know if anyone watched the Thursday night game last week, but Nix had a handful of throws that were so mindblowingly bad that it was hard to figure out who he might be throwing too. Nobody around him, not even hurried...and I don't mean that a throw sailed on him a bit. I was watching with a crowd and we kept staring at each other, mouths agape. I honestly don't think that I've ever seen someone with worse mechanics and footwork. He might be something someday, but nobody should be jonesing for Bo Nix.

He had two wide ass open receivers, no pressure, and managed to split the difference between the guys in a manner that made catching the ball impossible for both of them. It 100% ranked among the worst throws I've ever seen at any level of football.

 

[Jimbodandy]

He had two wide ass open receivers, no pressure, and managed to split the difference between the guys in a manner that made catching the ball impossible for both of them. It 100% ranked among the worst throws I've ever seen at any level of football.

That was the absolute worst one, but there were a few others that were also horrible. Shorting wide open guys by a full five yards.

 

[astrozombie]

Yeah, I'm afraid you may be right. The Browns hired Hue Jackson, he went 1-15, Jimmy Haslam brought him back and he went 0-16, and then he brought him back for a third season after that. Bad owners do crazy shit and right now evidence is leaning toward Bob Kraft becoming a bad owner.

I am not sure if Kraft is a bad owner, but nailing the BB hire reminds me of something that was said about Sunny Balwani (one of the Theranos fraudsters) in Carreyrou's book on the subjct. Paraphrasing, but Balwani was someone who got lucky on some investments through no work of his own and mistook that for his own genius; like someone who believes they are financially saavy expert for hitting the jackpot on a lotto ticket. Sometimes I think Kraft is like that. Sure, BB wasn't some unknown, but he was a mediocre HC with the Browns, a good DC and was just hired by the Jets, forcing Kraft to trade for him. The League is littered with "good coordinator, unsuccessful HC" types, so there was a chance that BB could have joined them, especially if Mo Lewis' hit hadn't forced the team to play Brady. Now that Kraft has to do what other owners do (hire multiple coaches and GMs), its clear that the job is not easy and becoming clearer that Kraft doesn't have some kind of secret sauce/process that works better than anyone else.

 

[8slim]

I am not sure if Kraft is a bad owner, but nailing the BB hire reminds me of something that was said about Sunny Balwani (one of the Theranos fraudsters) in Carreyrou's book on the subjct. Paraphrasing, but Balwani was someone who got lucky on some investments through no work of his own and mistook that for his own genius; like someone who believes they are financially saavy expert for hitting the jackpot on a lotto ticket. Sometimes I think Kraft is like that. Sure, BB wasn't some unknown, but he was a mediocre HC with the Browns, a good DC and was just hired by the Jets, forcing Kraft to trade for him. The League is littered with "good coordinator, unsuccessful HC" types, so there was a chance that BB could have joined them, especially if Mo Lewis' hit hadn't forced the team to play Brady. Now that Kraft has to do what other owners do (hire multiple coaches and GMs), its clear that the job is not easy and becoming clearer that Kraft doesn't have some kind of secret sauce/process that works better than anyone else.

That undersells Kraft's machinations to land BB. I mean, the Jets had a clause in his contract that made him the HC the second that Parcells retired. Clearly BB was highly regarded -- a lot more than just a "good DC". He was a legendary DC who had actually turned the Browns around as HC (remember the 1994 playoffs?) before Modell sabotaged the team.

Kraft managed to extricate BB from his HC of the NYJ deal by trading a first round pick. That was ballsy.

Kraft also had the good sense to turn the operation over to BB and stand aside. He learned from the debacle that was the Carroll/Grier era.

It's fine to say that 83 year old Bob Kraft doesn't have the acumen that 58 year old Bob Kraft had. I agree with that assessment. But it's not right to call what he did with BB "luck".

 

[rodderick]

That undersells Kraft's machinations to land BB. I mean, the Jets had a clause in his contract that made him the HC the second that Parcells retired. Clearly BB was highly regarded -- a lot more than just a "good DC". He was a legendary DC who had actually turned the Browns around as HC (remember the 1994 playoffs?) before Modell sabotaged the team.

Kraft managed to extricate BB from his HC of the NYJ deal by trading a first round pick. That was ballsy.

Kraft also had the good sense to turn the operation over to BB and stand aside. He learned from the debacle that was the Carroll/Grier era.

It's fine to say that 83 year old Bob Kraft doesn't have the acumen that 58 year old Bob Kraft had. I agree with that assessment. But it's not right to call what he did with BB "luck".

To an extent it was luck, because he had BB on the team for a single year and developed a gut feeling over him through their personal relationship and first hand knowledge of how players thought of him, in a way that's not wholly dissimilar to what happened with Mayo. Sure, Bill had an incomparably more extensive and successful resume at that point, but he wasn't seen as a guy who turned the Browns around, but as a failed HC with a difficult personality. Kraft was supremely ballsy to bet on Bill to the extent that he'd trade a first round pick for him, but he developed confidence in Belichick's ability to thrive as the next head coach through instinct and limited information. Bill was "his guy", it's not like they had a whole process and he came out of it as the candidate who checked the most boxes. It's not right to call it exclusively luck, I agree, but I don't think it demonstrates some higher level of planning or reasoning by Kraft either. He got to know Bill for a bit, he liked Bill personally, defenders praised Bill, once Bill became available he was set on having Bill as the next guy. That's pretty much it.

 

[tims4wins]

To an extent it was luck, because he had BB on the team for a single year and developed a gut feeling over him through their personal relationship and first hand knowledge of how players thought of him, in a way that's not wholly dissimilar to what happened with Mayo. Sure, Bill had an incomparably more extensive and successful resume at that point, but he wasn't seen as a guy who turned the Browns around, but as a failed HC with a difficult personality. Kraft was supremely ballsy to bet on Bill to the extent that he'd trade a first round pick for him, but he developed confidence in Belichick's ability to thrive as the next head coach through instinct and limited information. Bill was "his guy", it's not like they had a whole process and he came out of it as the candidate who checked the most boxes. It's not right to call it exclusively luck, I agree, but I don't think it demonstrates some higher level of planning or reasoning by Kraft either. He got to know Bill for a bit, he liked Bill personally, defenders praised Bill, once Bill became available he was set on having Bill as the next guy. That's pretty much it.

Yep. It’s really quite similar to Mayo except Kraft knew Mayo much longer than he knew BB at the time. Clearly Kraft takes pride in his “ability” to identify people. But it’s not a real skill IMO and it’s going to cost Kraft many years of bad football.

 

[astrozombie]

To an extent it was luck, because he had BB on the team for a single year and developed a gut feeling over him through their personal relationship and first hand knowledge of how players thought of him, in a way that's not wholly dissimilar to what happened with Mayo. Sure, Bill had an incomparably more extensive and successful resume at that point, but he wasn't seen as a guy who turned the Browns around, but as a failed HC with a difficult personality. Kraft was supremely ballsy to bet on Bill to the extent that he'd trade a first round pick for him, but he developed confidence in Belichick's ability to thrive as the next head coach through instinct and limited information. Bill was "his guy", it's not like they had a whole process and he came out of it as the candidate who checked the most boxes. It's not right to call it exclusively luck, I agree, but I don't think it demonstrates some higher level of planning or reasoning by Kraft either. He got to know Bill for a bit, he liked Bill personally, defenders praised Bill, once Bill became available he was set on having Bill as the next guy. That's pretty much it.

This is a better explanation of what I was getting at, thanks.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Yep. It’s really quite similar to Mayo except Kraft knew Mayo much longer than he knew BB at the time. Clearly Kraft takes pride in his “ability” to identify people. But it’s not a real skill IMO and it’s going to cost Kraft many years of bad football.

That's the problem.

If I make a half-court shot you can debate the degree to which it reflected luck vs skill but the one thing that nobody should be doing is betting on my ability to do it again.

I worry that Kraft has a lot psychologically invested in the foolish idea that he can swish Mayo.

 

[Curt S Loew]

He got to know Bill for a bit, he liked Bill personally, defenders praised Bill, once Bill became available he was set on having Bill as the next guy. That's pretty much it.

Well, he wasn't set for a bit. He hired Pete Carroll. I remember seeing a video of Kraft and Bill in a vehicle together during the hiring process after Parcells left.

I remember hoping he would be the choice then.

I found a photo Googling it:

 

[DJnVa]

The run defense was arguably the best in the league last year, it's one of the worst this year, that is definitely not a problem they inherited

Sure, but last year's run defense had Barmore, Bentley, Peppers, and Judon. This one doesn't for reasons that aren't really on Wolf/Mayo.

 

[DJnVa]

They picked 3rd in the draft for a reason. If this past draft turns out to be a dud (other than Maye), it will fit right in among recent drafts.

If Maye hits, the draft isn't a dud.

 

[rodderick]

Well, he wasn't set for a bit. He hired Pete Carroll. I remember seeing a video of Kraft and Bill in a vehicle together during the hiring process after Parcells left.

I remember hoping he would be the choice then.

I found a photo Googling it:
View attachment 90339

Kraft has said he wanted to hire Bill then and regretted passing on him for Carroll, so he wouldn't make the same mistake again. It's pretty clear he had him on his mind as the next guy for a while after Bill's season on the Patriots defensive staff.

 

[Silverdude2167]

If Maye hits, the draft isn't a dud.

But it will be a flashing red light that maybe BB wasn't the issue but the entire front office which was kept in place.

 

[8slim]

Bill was "his guy", it's not like they had a whole process and he came out of it as the candidate who checked the most boxes. It's not right to call it exclusively luck, I agree, but I don't think it demonstrates some higher level of planning or reasoning by Kraft either.

This I largely agree with. And Kraft certainly had farrrrr more tangible prior success to inform his gut with BB compared to Mayo. BB was critical to Parcells' performance and Kraft got to watch that dynamic up close. No one can argue that Mayo was critical to BB's success.

I just hate the term "luck". I'll concede that Kraft was "fortunate" that BB turned out to be the coaching GOAT. But if BB only won that 2001 Super Bowl it still would have been a great hire by Kraft.

 

[nighthob]

You forgot Rod Rust.

And let’s not forget Dick MacPherson, who followed up his six win debut season with a two win campaign. But I think his list was just of guys that had a little success despite the 1-2 win season. And neither Rust nor MacPherson ever had NFL head coaching success.

 

[Curt S Loew]

Kraft has said he wanted to hire Bill then and regretted passing on him for Carroll, so he wouldn't make the same mistake again. It's pretty clear he had him on his mind as the next guy for a while after Bill's season on the Patriots defensive staff.

Right, but didn't pull the trigger. I was merely commenting that he wasn't set on him right away. He should have been.

 

[rodderick]

This I largely agree with. And Kraft certainly had farrrrr more tangible prior success to inform his gut with BB compared to Mayo. BB was critical to Parcells' performance and Kraft got to watch that dynamic up close. No one can argue that Mayo was critical to BB's success.

I just hate the term "luck". I'll concede that Kraft was "fortunate" that BB turned out to be the coaching GOAT. But if BB only won that 2001 Super Bowl it still would have been a great hire by Kraft.

It was absolutely a great hire for Kraft, honestly hiring Bill easily ranks among the greatest calls in sports history by an owner. It wasn't an obvious pick at all and he paid a really high price to acquire him. I just don't think it qualifies as evidence that Robert has a process or repeatable skill in identifying the next guys.

 

[8slim]

Yep. It’s really quite similar to Mayo except Kraft knew Mayo much longer than he knew BB at the time. Clearly Kraft takes pride in his “ability” to identify people. But it’s not a real skill IMO and it’s going to cost Kraft many years of bad football.

It's "similar" in the most superficial way. It's not similar in the sense that BB had a resume roughly 14 million miles longer than Mayo when the Pats named him HC.

I do agree that Kraft is exhibiting rich old guy energy in thinking he alone has some window into people's soul and can suss out winners. It's bullshit and we're likely to find that out the hard way over the next couple seasons.

 

[8slim]

And let’s not forget Dick MacPherson, who followed up his six win debut season with a two win campaign. But I think his list was just of guys that had a little success despite the 1-2 win season. And neither Rust nor MacPherson ever had NFL head coaching success.

For sure, I had my tounge planted firmly in cheek.

 

[tims4wins]

It's "similar" in the most superficial way. It's not similar in the sense that BB had a resume roughly 14 million miles longer than Mayo when the Pats named him HC.

I do agree that Kraft is exhibiting rich old guy energy in thinking he alone has some window into people's soul and can suss out winners. It's bullshit and we're likely to find that out the hard way over the next couple seasons.

Right but at the end of the day both hires were based on gut feel. Which is neither a skill nor is repeatable as we all agree.

 

[nighthob]

For sure, I had my tounge planted firmly in cheek.

As did I, as a franchise the Patriots have a lot of those 1-2 win coaches in their bin.