Jaguars Game Goat Thread

[Bigdogx]

If Maye hits, the draft isn't a dud.

Maye was a set it and forget it pick, simply 0 credit for it. The only other move was to trade out, this is not finding some diamond in the rough here...

The rest of the draft is looking pretty terrible at this point to me, If fans want to pretend the draft was a success then i hope those same fans like mediocrity. I dont see any true pathway right now moving forward under this regime, they need so many pieces i feel like we are going to waste the entirety of Maye's rookie deal trying to make something work here with a crew learning the job day by day. It will be a shame if Wolfe is allowed to take what is now looking like the number 1 overall pick into next years process, sorry i dont trust him or Mayo at this point to do the right thing.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Maye was a set it and forget it pick, simply 0 credit for it. The only other move was to trade out, this is not finding some diamond in the rough here...

The rest of the draft is looking pretty terrible at this point to me, If fans want to pretend the draft was a success then i hope those same fans like mediocrity. I dont see any true pathway right now moving forward under this regime, they need so many pieces i feel like we are going to waste the entirety of Maye's rookie deal trying to make something work here with a crew learning the job day by day. It will be a shame if Wolfe is allowed to take what is now looking like the number 1 overall pick into next years process, sorry i dont trust him or Mayo at this point to do the right thing.

In fairness, they literally did the right thing in 2024. The rest of the draft is looking iffy so far but they had 1 key job this past draft and did it. Was it the most imaginative pick? Of course not. But they still executed it.

I’m not a huge Wolf guy but I don’t see a whole lot of impact guys at Polk’s spot that we missed out on. We’ll see how it progresses. Too bad they couldn’t also trade up and snag Thomas because he looks great. But it obviously takes 2 to tango.

But there is no doubt that the 2025 draft will be the big data point for this front office. Maye was easy. Finding the right guys/deals in this draft will be less so.

 

[8slim]

Right but at the end of the day both hires were based on gut feel. Which is neither a skill nor is repeatable as we all agree.

I guess I'm saying that BB wasn't entirely a gut feel hire. Bill had a monster resume and at least one other NFL franchise who desperately wanted him to be HC. It also came on the heels of Kraft realizing he overcorrected after Parcells in hiring nice guy Pete Carroll. There was a ton of logic in hiring Bill, it wasn't just Kraft looking into his eyes and shooting from the hip.

The Mayo hire was ALL gut. There's nothing on his resume to suggest he's ready to be a HC, let alone be a successful one.

I'll put it this way... If McDaniels didn't leave for the Raiders job, and Kraft hired him to replace Bill, that wouldn't be a gut decision. It'd be a process vaguely similar to what he went through with Bill: watch a guy be a critical asset to a HC, determine he learned from his prior HC stint and will improve, etc.

Clearly the mistake Kraft may have made (among many) is thinking that the circumstances of hiring Mayo are similar to Bill They're really very, very different.

 

[cshea]

Maye was a set it and forget it pick, simply 0 credit for it. The only other move was to trade out, this is not finding some diamond in the rough here...

The rest of the draft is looking pretty terrible at this point to me, If fans want to pretend the draft was a success then i hope those same fans like mediocrity. I dont see any true pathway right now moving forward under this regime, they need so many pieces i feel like we are going to waste the entirety of Maye's rookie deal trying to make something work here with a crew learning the job day by day. It will be a shame if Wolfe is allowed to take what is now looking like the number 1 overall pick into next years process, sorry i dont trust him or Mayo at this point to do the right thing.

It’s been 7 games. It’s far too early to pass judgement on the 2024 draft class.

 

[rodderick]

Man, after the Patriots went up 10-0 by putting the ball in Maye's hands, they called running plays on 8 or the next 11 first downs. They are still approaching these matchups as if they can run the ball to shorten the game and then force some punts when they can't do either right now.

 

[tims4wins]

I guess I'm saying that BB wasn't entirely a gut feel hire. Bill had a monster resume and at least one other NFL franchise who desperately wanted him to be HC. It also came on the heels of Kraft realizing he overcorrected after Parcells in hiring nice guy Pete Carroll. There was a ton of logic in hiring Bill, it wasn't just Kraft looking into his eyes and shooting from the hip.

The Mayo hire was ALL gut. There's nothing on his resume to suggest he's ready to be a HC, let alone be a successful one.

I'll put it this way... If McDaniels didn't leave for the Raiders job, and Kraft hired him to replace Bill, that wouldn't be a gut decision. It'd be a process vaguely similar to what he went through with Bill: watch a guy be a critical asset to a HC, determine he learned from his prior HC stint and will improve, etc.

Clearly the mistake Kraft may have made (among many) is thinking that the circumstances of hiring Mayo are similar to Bill They're really very, very different.

Got it, great reply. I completely agree.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

It’s been 7 games. It’s far too early to pass judgement on the 2024 draft class.

Especially given the injuries suffered by Wallace and Robinson.

Wallace hasn't gotten to play his natural position of RT yet at all. Robinson has looked decent when he has been on the field and certainly better than either of our interior linemen picks the previous year.

I doubt either of these guys takes any February trips to Hawaii but its entirely possible that they both turn into perfectly serviceable NFL offensive linemen which is something this team desperately needs.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Especially given the injuries suffered by Wallace and Robinson.

Wallace hasn't gotten to play his natural position of RT yet at all. Robinson has looked decent when he has been on the field and certainly better than either of our interior linemen picks the previous year.

I doubt either of these guys takes any February trips to Hawaii but its entirely possible that they both turn into perfectly serviceable NFL offensive linemen which is something this team desperately needs.

Robinson was pretty terrible honestly, he was one of the worst pass-blockers in the league.

Now... he's a 4th round rookie. He probably shouldn't be starting anyway, and we've seen big imrpovement in other OL over a year or 2.

To me, you can't judge a draft pick really until mid-year 2 at the earliest, and probably year 3 for anybody drafted after the 1st two rounds.

Im not that concerned about the draft so far. It appears they might have hit on the pick that is far more important than all the rest combined in Maye. Everybody else is a work in progress, and even the ones who are struggling have shown something to project on, whether it be Robinson's initial run block success, Wallace's pretty decent work as the 6th OL on the right (yes he was terrible the one game they had to start him at LT), or Polk getting open (now if only he could catch).

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Robinson was pretty terrible honestly, he was one of the worst pass-blockers in the league.

Now... he's a 4th round rookie. He probably shouldn't be starting anyway, and we've seen big imrpovement in other OL over a year or 2.

To me, you can't judge a draft pick really until mid-year 2 at the earliest, and probably year 3 for anybody drafted after the 1st two rounds.

Im not that concerned about the draft so far. It appears they might have hit on the pick that is far more important than all the rest combined in Maye. Everybody else is a work in progress, and even the ones who are struggling have shown something to project on, whether it be Robinson's initial run block success, Wallace's pretty decent work as the 6th OL on the right (yes he was terrible the one game they had to start him at LT), or Polk getting open (now if only he could catch).

Yeah, I was grading pretty heavily on a curve there for Robinson - pretty decent for a fourth round rookie thrown into the fire.

I agree that we won't know much for another year but its not implausible to me that either him or Wallace or both end up as solid NFL players.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Yeah, I was grading pretty heavily on a curve there for Robinson - pretty decent for a fourth round rookie thrown into the fire.

I agree that we won't know much for another year but its not implausible to me that either him or Wallace or both end up as solid NFL players.

I think both will be NFL players, question is how high up... Robinson could to me end up anywhere from deep bench of spot starter. Wallace could be a starting RT I still believe.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Has anyone brought up the brain trust at NFL-central (oxymoron, I know) ? One team had 10 or so days in London, the other had 2.5, which included all of the required publicity check ins. I don't want to sound like I am saying "it's not fair!", but imagine a Superb Owl in France, with one team getting there 2 weeks ahead of the other.

EDIT- And the Pats don't even have a bye -- so they have to fly halfway around the globe, again, to be ready for Sunday...

 

[BaseballJones]

I don't agree at all with the idea that they shouldn't get credit for Maye. There were a ton of people speculating that the Pats would trade the pick away and draft Nix, or would simply draft McCarthy. There were a ton of ways for NE to screw up that pick, and they didn't. They absolutely get credit for it. It wasn't the highest degree of difficulty ever in a pick - like picking Seymour over Terrell in 2000 was a really ballsy choice that obviously turned out to be the right move, so way more credit for that pick - but you still get credit when you do the right thing.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I don't agree at all with the idea that they shouldn't get credit for Maye. There were a ton of people speculating that the Pats would trade the pick away and draft Nix, or would simply draft McCarthy. There were a ton of ways for NE to screw up that pick, and they didn't. They absolutely get credit for it. It wasn't the highest degree of difficulty ever in a pick - like picking Seymour over Terrell in 2000 was a really ballsy choice that obviously turned out to be the right move, so way more credit for that pick - but you still get credit when you do the right thing.

Yeah, it's incredibly silly to only grade a GM on the picks when they go away from consensus... even if we ignore that there really is rarely such a thing as consensus. You want your GM to make good decisions, and often the "obvious" move is the right one, and they get credit for recognizing that.

 

[soxpatscelts1524]

I don't agree at all with the idea that they shouldn't get credit for Maye. There were a ton of people speculating that the Pats would trade the pick away and draft Nix, or would simply draft McCarthy. There were a ton of ways for NE to screw up that pick, and they didn't. They absolutely get credit for it. It wasn't the highest degree of difficulty ever in a pick - like picking Seymour over Terrell in 2000 was a really ballsy choice that obviously turned out to be the right move, so way more credit for that pick - but you still get credit when you do the right thing.

I'd say it depends on what you mean by "credit." No one was speculating that the Commanders or Bears would trade away the pick and draft Nix, so it's pretty fair to assume that the rumors actually had some truth to them. You shouldn't get real credit for actively considering something dumb and then deciding not to do it. It's also the case the only team in the Patriots situation (no franchise QB with consensus top QB on the board) to ever have not drafted the QB was the Sashi Brown/Paul DePodesta Browns. Does Wolf get credit for not being the Sashi Brown/Depodesta browns? Sure, I guess. But if we're considering whether to replace Wolf with someone else, it's a pretty fair assumption that nearly any other candidate would've drafted Maye, because nearly every GM in the history of the NFL would've done the same thing. If we're handing out grades like it's a report card or something, sure, A+ for drafting Maye. If we're debating whether or not to keep Wolf? I wouldn't keep him because he drafted Maye.

 

[4 6 3 DP]

To an extent it was luck, because he had BB on the team for a single year and developed a gut feeling over him through their personal relationship and first hand knowledge of how players thought of him, in a way that's not wholly dissimilar to what happened with Mayo. Sure, Bill had an incomparably more extensive and successful resume at that point, but he wasn't seen as a guy who turned the Browns around, but as a failed HC with a difficult personality. Kraft was supremely ballsy to bet on Bill to the extent that he'd trade a first round pick for him, but he developed confidence in Belichick's ability to thrive as the next head coach through instinct and limited information. Bill was "his guy", it's not like they had a whole process and he came out of it as the candidate who checked the most boxes. It's not right to call it exclusively luck, I agree, but I don't think it demonstrates some higher level of planning or reasoning by Kraft either. He got to know Bill for a bit, he liked Bill personally, defenders praised Bill, once Bill became available he was set on having Bill as the next guy. That's pretty much it.

I think there is a lot missing with this.

BB had a defensive game plan from the 1990 Super Bowl that is in the Hall of Fame - as well as being the right hand man behind a HOF coach in Bill Parcells. He'd rebuilt the Browns into a playoff team, only to see it fall apart after the team announced a move. He had built a defense in NE, working for Kraft, that had gone to the 96 Super Bowl, and had players like Lawyer Milloy raving about the guy. There was not "limited information".

The issues with BB as a head coach was a media that didn't like him and Art Modell saying he would be a terrible mistake. I guess you could add the handling of the Bernie Kosar situation, but BB was right (and would likely use that experience several years later to build a dynasty) So Kraft had to reconcile a brilliant, successful football brain with considerable success as a coordinator and limited success as a head coach, who had been fired as a head coach under unusual circumstances. There was nothing that Kraft could do besides size him up one on one and determine where the truth lay. And he sized it up perfectly.

Mayo on the other hand served as a business development professional for several years before never calling a play as a defensive assistant for a bunch of Patriot teams that never won a playoff game. Not sure the vetting process for these two should have been the same.

Yes, the fact that a gamble was involved in both is certainly in common, but that's just the risk inherent in finding a coach. Sometimes the unusual hires work out and they are John Harbaugh (ST coach) or Dan Campbell, sometimes you get Nathanial Hackett.

Sometimes you hire a brilliant technical mind and get Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay and sometimes you get Josh McDaniels. Obviously it isn't an exact science and by no means should it be treated like BB was a shoo-in, especially with the compensation necessary, but the comparison is IMO inappropriate.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I am not sure if Kraft is a bad owner, but nailing the BB hire reminds me of something that was said about Sunny Balwani (one of the Theranos fraudsters) in Carreyrou's book on the subjct. Paraphrasing, but Balwani was someone who got lucky on some investments through no work of his own and mistook that for his own genius; like someone who believes they are financially saavy expert for hitting the jackpot on a lotto ticket. Sometimes I think Kraft is like that. Sure, BB wasn't some unknown, but he was a mediocre HC with the Browns, a good DC and was just hired by the Jets, forcing Kraft to trade for him. The League is littered with "good coordinator, unsuccessful HC" types, so there was a chance that BB could have joined them, especially if Mo Lewis' hit hadn't forced the team to play Brady. Now that Kraft has to do what other owners do (hire multiple coaches and GMs), its clear that the job is not easy and becoming clearer that Kraft doesn't have some kind of secret sauce/process that works better than anyone else.

This is a great reference. I loved that Carreyrou book, although I can't see Kraft and BB roleplaying those awkward romantic messages between Balwani and Holmes (Kraft: "You are my moon and stars. BB: "OK.")

 

[Cotillion]

I think there is a lot missing with this.

BB had a defensive game plan from the 1990 Super Bowl that is in the Hall of Fame - as well as being the right hand man behind a HOF coach in Bill Parcells. He'd rebuilt the Browns into a playoff team, only to see it fall apart after the team announced a move. He had built a defense in NE, working for Kraft, that had gone to the 96 Super Bowl, and had players like Lawyer Milloy raving about the guy. There was not "limited information".

The issues with BB as a head coach was a media that didn't like him and Art Modell saying he would be a terrible mistake. I guess you could add the handling of the Bernie Kosar situation, but BB was right (and would likely use that experience several years later to build a dynasty) So Kraft had to reconcile a brilliant, successful football brain with considerable success as a coordinator and limited success as a head coach, who had been fired as a head coach under unusual circumstances. There was nothing that Kraft could do besides size him up one on one and determine where the truth lay. And he sized it up perfectly.

Mayo on the other hand served as a business development professional for several years before never calling a play as a defensive assistant for a bunch of Patriot teams that never won a playoff game. Not sure the vetting process for these two should have been the same.

Yes, the fact that a gamble was involved in both is certainly in common, but that's just the risk inherent in finding a coach. Sometimes the unusual hires work out and they are John Harbaugh (ST coach) or Dan Campbell, sometimes you get Nathanial Hackett.

Sometimes you hire a brilliant technical mind and get Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay and sometimes you get Josh McDaniels. Obviously it isn't an exact science and by no means should it be treated like BB was a shoo-in, especially with the compensation necessary, but the comparison is IMO inappropriate.

Isn't there a story out there where Ravens reached out to Bill asking about hiring a special teams guy like Harbaugh as an HC, and Bill recommended they hire him?

 

[4 6 3 DP]

Isn't there a story out there where Ravens reached out to Bill asking about hiring a special teams guy like Harbaugh as an HC, and Bill recommended they hire him?

There is. Bill did recommend him (presumably to Ozzie or ownership). Even then, pretty risky hire. It came up because Harbaugh was rumored to be the original source of the deflated ball situation after the 2014 playoff game (fed it to Pagano his former DC I believe), and one of the responses was that Harbaugh had a lot of loyalty to BB for speaking on his behalf.

 

[rodderick]

I think there is a lot missing with this.

BB had a defensive game plan from the 1990 Super Bowl that is in the Hall of Fame - as well as being the right hand man behind a HOF coach in Bill Parcells. He'd rebuilt the Browns into a playoff team, only to see it fall apart after the team announced a move. He had built a defense in NE, working for Kraft, that had gone to the 96 Super Bowl, and had players like Lawyer Milloy raving about the guy. There was not "limited information".

The issues with BB as a head coach was a media that didn't like him and Art Modell saying he would be a terrible mistake. I guess you could add the handling of the Bernie Kosar situation, but BB was right (and would likely use that experience several years later to build a dynasty) So Kraft had to reconcile a brilliant, successful football brain with considerable success as a coordinator and limited success as a head coach, who had been fired as a head coach under unusual circumstances. There was nothing that Kraft could do besides size him up one on one and determine where the truth lay. And he sized it up perfectly.

Mayo on the other hand served as a business development professional for several years before never calling a play as a defensive assistant for a bunch of Patriot teams that never won a playoff game. Not sure the vetting process for these two should have been the same.

Yes, the fact that a gamble was involved in both is certainly in common, but that's just the risk inherent in finding a coach. Sometimes the unusual hires work out and they are John Harbaugh (ST coach) or Dan Campbell, sometimes you get Nathanial Hackett.

Sometimes you hire a brilliant technical mind and get Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay and sometimes you get Josh McDaniels. Obviously it isn't an exact science and by no means should it be treated like BB was a shoo-in, especially with the compensation necessary, but the comparison is IMO inappropriate.

You're recontextualizing the Browns stint based on Belichick's success with the Patriots. He wasn't a hot commodity as HC and was widely believed to have failed at Cleveland. That those years have been eulogized into "the dynasty that never was" now that he and Saban have become arguably the two greatest coaches in the history of the sport can't bend reality itself.

And yeah, I straight up said Bill had a much more extensive and impressive resume as a coach and DC, don't know what to tell you. He wasn't highly sought after, and the decision to trade a first rounder for him was met with surprise and a whole lot of cynicism. That it ended up being the home run of all home runs is to Robert and Bill's eternal credit, but it's revisionist history to act like Bill was anything more than a reclamation project at that point.

 

[4 6 3 DP]

You're recontextualizing the Browns stint based on Belichick's success with the Patriots. He wasn't a hot commodity as HC and was widely believed to have failed at Cleveland. That those years have been eulogized into "the dynasty that never was" now that he and Saban have become arguably the two greatest coaches in the history of the sport can't bend reality itself.

And yeah, I straight up said Bill had a much more extensive and impressive resume as a coach and DC, don't know whatto tell you.

Apologies if I mischaracterized anything you said, I specifically was only trying to respond to the idea that the process to identify Mayo was "not wholly dissimilar" - other than they were both defensive coaches who'd both worked for the Patriots, I can't think of too much that the hires have in common.

 

[tims4wins]

Apologies if I mischaracterized anything you said, I specifically was only trying to respond to the idea that the process to identify Mayo was "not wholly dissimilar" - other than they were both defensive coaches who'd both worked for the Patriots, I can't think of too much that the hires have in common.

Their resumes are completely different.

But the idea that Kraft got it in his head that he wanted to hire both of them based on personal interactions had some similarities.

 

[rodderick]

Apologies if I mischaracterized anything you said, I specifically was only trying to respond to the idea that the process to identify Mayo was "not wholly dissimilar" - other than they were both defensive coaches who'd both worked for the Patriots, I can't think of too much that the hires have in common.

They have in common the fact that both hires were made based on Kraft's personal relationship with the coach and gut feeling about them being the best option instead of resulting from a structured process with a search for candidates that fit specific criteria conducted by a GM, like most other teams do business.

 

[lexrageorge]

I'd say it depends on what you mean by "credit." No one was speculating that the Commanders or Bears would trade away the pick and draft Nix, so it's pretty fair to assume that the rumors actually had some truth to them. You shouldn't get real credit for actively considering something dumb and then deciding not to do it. It's also the case the only team in the Patriots situation (no franchise QB with consensus top QB on the board) to ever have not drafted the QB was the Sashi Brown/Paul DePodesta Browns. Does Wolf get credit for not being the Sashi Brown/Depodesta browns? Sure, I guess. But if we're considering whether to replace Wolf with someone else, it's a pretty fair assumption that nearly any other candidate would've drafted Maye, because nearly every GM in the history of the NFL would've done the same thing. If we're handing out grades like it's a report card or something, sure, A+ for drafting Maye. If we're debating whether or not to keep Wolf? I wouldn't keep him because he drafted Maye.

The idea that Wolf was in favor of trading the #3 just so the Pats could draft Nix is not supported by any real evidence.

What we know is that the Giants GM inquired with Wolf about some trade possibilities. And nothing came close as it became quickly apparent that Wolf’s asking price was going to be much more than the Giants were willing to go. These types of conversations happen all the time across the league; GM’s feel each other out to see what could happen. Many of these conversations don’t become public until years later.

Any good GM is always open to having those discussions. It’s quite possible that teams called Chicago and Washington as well; except those teams were not being featured on Hard Knocks.

 

[BaseballJones]

I'd say it depends on what you mean by "credit." No one was speculating that the Commanders or Bears would trade away the pick and draft Nix, so it's pretty fair to assume that the rumors actually had some truth to them. You shouldn't get real credit for actively considering something dumb and then deciding not to do it. It's also the case the only team in the Patriots situation (no franchise QB with consensus top QB on the board) to ever have not drafted the QB was the Sashi Brown/Paul DePodesta Browns. Does Wolf get credit for not being the Sashi Brown/Depodesta browns? Sure, I guess. But if we're considering whether to replace Wolf with someone else, it's a pretty fair assumption that nearly any other candidate would've drafted Maye, because nearly every GM in the history of the NFL would've done the same thing. If we're handing out grades like it's a report card or something, sure, A+ for drafting Maye. If we're debating whether or not to keep Wolf? I wouldn't keep him because he drafted Maye.

There was no consensus at all that Maye was the right pick at #3. Many of us liked him there, but a bunch of national people really loved McCarthy and thought the Pats would go after him.

 

[soxpatscelts1524]

The idea that Wolf was in favor of trading the #3 just so the Pats could draft Nix is not supported by any real evidence.

What we know is that the Giants GM inquired with Wolf about some trade possibilities. And nothing came close as it became quickly apparent that Wolf’s asking price was going to be much more than the Giants were willing to go. These types of conversations happen all the time across the league; GM’s feel each other out to see what could happen. Many of these conversations don’t become public until years later.

Any good GM is always open to having those discussions. It’s quite possible that teams called Chicago and Washington as well; except those teams were not being featured on Hard Knocks.

Look, I have no idea if Wolf was seriously interested in trading #3 and there's no way for us to know. I think it would've been completely absurd. The fact that there was basically zero buzz about Washington or Chicago trading suggests that maybe he actually was considering it, but there's no way to know that.

Here's what we do know: In the modern NFL era, there have been countless QBs drafted at the top of the draft. There is literally only one example in the history of the modern NFL (Sashi Brown) of a team without a potential franchise QB on the team trading away the pick. That to me suggests that the vast majority of other people who we could replace Wolf with as GM would've also picked Maye. We can still give Wolf a gold star or whatever for picking Maye, but I don't think it should help him keep his job. It doesn't add any value over replacement level.

I'll note that this would be a lot different if Wolf made some great pick at 25 or something that was the top guy on most media big boards. Teams do pass up on "consensus" top guys at that point in the draft all the time and that would be a significant value add pick, even if it was media consensus best player. But picking a top QB is different. In drafts where the QBs go at the top, we know who the top rated QBs are, we know who's going to take them.

 

[soxpatscelts1524]

There was no consensus at all that Maye was the right pick at #3. Many of us liked him there, but a bunch of national people really loved McCarthy and thought the Pats would go after him.

The fact that several other teams showed interest in trading up to #3 but no one else paid even a small price to trade up for McCarthy suggests that he was never a real consideration for the NFL there.

 

[BaseballJones]

The fact that several other teams showed interest in trading up to #3 but no one else paid even a small price to trade up for McCarthy suggests that he was never a real consideration for the NFL there.

Maybe. Maybe not. The Pats still get credit for making the right pick when they very easily could have done a bunch of different things.

 

[ManicCompression]

Look, I have no idea if Wolf was seriously interested in trading #3 and there's no way for us to know. I think it would've been completely absurd. The fact that there was basically zero buzz about Washington or Chicago trading suggests that maybe he actually was considering it, but there's no way to know that.

Here's what we do know: In the modern NFL era, there have been countless QBs drafted at the top of the draft. There is literally only one example in the history of the modern NFL (Sashi Brown) of a team without a potential franchise QB on the team trading away the pick. That to me suggests that the vast majority of other people who we could replace Wolf with as GM would've also picked Maye. We can still give Wolf a gold star or whatever for picking Maye, but I don't think it should help him keep his job. It doesn't add any value over replacement level.

I'll note that this would be a lot different if Wolf made some great pick at 25 or something that was the top guy on most media big boards. Teams do pass up on "consensus" top guys at that point in the draft all the time and that would be a significant value add pick, even if it was media consensus best player. But picking a top QB is different. In drafts where the QBs go at the top, we know who the top rated QBs are, we know who's going to take them.

It seems like you're going out of your way to take away credit from Wolf for this pick. Even the Colts, when they took Peyton Manning, should get credit for not drafting Ryan Leaf instead (who people viewed as his equal as a prospect). Wolf could've picked Joe Alt and traded for Justin Fields, or gotten Marvin Harrison and Russ Wilson. In hindsight it looks obvious, but it was anything but in real time.

I didn't like the Wolf hire or the Mayo hire, but now that we're here, let's at least give the picks some time to acclimate to the NFL. Polk, for all his faults so far, is still doing a great job simply getting separation, which you can't say for other previous Pats WR draft busts - that's a skill he can build on the rest of the year with a QB who actually looks to pass to wide receivers. We'll see about Wallace and Robinson... they've been too injured to make any long-term declarations on them. Go through the second and third rounds - are there any rookies playing at a high level right now? If we took Kingsley and Roman Wilson in rounds 2 and 3, are the Pats appreciably different through 7 games?

I get the heat on Wolf for Free Agency - I get his strategy as well, but there's a good argument we should expect more - but the draft we're not going to know for a while.

 

[soxpatscelts1524]

Maybe. Maybe not. The Pats still get credit for making the right pick when they very easily could have done a bunch of different things.

Let's propose a hypothetical: What if the Bears had a new GM this year, they drafted Caleb Williams at #1, and then all the other picks were busts?
How about with the 2012 Colts? Would we say their GM is amazing for picking Andrew Luck even if he picked a bunch of other busts? What if Trevor Lawrence actually looked great? Would we say the 2021 Jaguars GM is great for picking him? Even if the other guys sucked?

What you want is a GM who can be better than the replacement NFL GM, similarly to how you want players on your roster that can play above replacement. It's usually hard to identify what the replacement level GM would've done. If you're picking at say, #30 overall, even if the guy you picked was media consensus best player, 29 other teams still passed on him, so the GM gets a lot of credit if he's a big hit. Picking a QB at the top of the draft is different because no one else passes on them, and history has shown that nearly every GM will take the QB. Picking Maye at #3 isn't quite the same as the examples I gave earlier, but it's pretty damn similar. The only two teams that passed on him have picked rookie QBs that have somehow looked even better. While I'm glad we made the obvious pick, I don't think we should award Elliot Wolf a ton of value above replacement for making it.

 

[ManicCompression]

Let's propose a hypothetical: What if the Bears had a new GM this year, they drafted Caleb Williams at #1, and then all the other picks were busts?
How about with the 2012 Colts? Would we say their GM is amazing for picking Andrew Luck even if he picked a bunch of other busts? What if Trevor Lawrence actually looked great? Would we say the 2021 Jaguars GM is great for picking him? Even if the other guys sucked?

You're listing strictly quarterbacks who were called "Once in a generation prospects", which Maye is decidedly not. It's more like the 2021 draft picks AFTER Lawrence, except we picked a player who's actually good instead of Zach Wilson or Trey Lance.

 

[soxpatscelts1524]

It seems like you're going out of your way to take away credit from Wolf for this pick. Even the Colts, when they took Peyton Manning, should get credit for not drafting Ryan Leaf instead (who people viewed as his equal as a prospect). Wolf could've picked Joe Alt and traded for Justin Fields, or gotten Marvin Harrison and Russ Wilson. In hindsight it looks obvious, but it was anything but in real time.

I didn't like the Wolf hire or the Mayo hire, but now that we're here, let's at least give the picks some time to acclimate to the NFL. Polk, for all his faults so far, is still doing a great job simply getting separation, which you can't say for other previous Pats WR draft busts - that's a skill he can build on the rest of the year with a QB who actually looks to pass to wide receivers. We'll see about Wallace and Robinson... they've been too injured to make any long-term declarations on them. Go through the second and third rounds - are there any rookies playing at a high level right now? If we took Kingsley and Roman Wilson in rounds 2 and 3, are the Pats appreciably different through 7 games?

I get the heat on Wolf for Free Agency - I get his strategy as well, but there's a good argument we should expect more - but the draft we're not going to know for a while.

In hindsight and in foresight it looks obvious. Wolf could've done that stuff, he also could've drafted Javon Baker #1 overall. The point is that a replacement level GM makes the Maye pick. The only GM in the modern era to trade out of a QB pick at the top of the draft without a potential franchise QB on the roster is Sashi Brown. Polk looks terrible and it's only been one metric showing him getting good separation. ESPN analytics has him as one of the worst receivers in the league, with only Jonathan Mingo getting worse separation.

https://espnanalytics.com/receivers

 

[soxpatscelts1524]

You're listing strictly quarterbacks who were called "Once in a generation prospects", which Maye is decidedly not. It's more like the 2021 draft picks AFTER Lawrence, except we picked a player who's actually good instead of Zach Wilson or Trey Lance.

Yes, it's a more obvious example than Maye, but it illustrates the point. There are degrees to this, and there are some picks that a replacement level GM would make 100% of the time (Caleb, Lawrence, Luck) which means the GM deserves 0 credit for making it, some picks that replacement level GM would make a small percentage of the time (the vast majority of picks in any draft) where the GM gets nearly 100% of the credit. The Maye pick is somewhere in between, where any GM in the NFL, including a replacement level GM is going to take him in the patriots situation 90-95% of the time, so I'm fine with giving Wolf a little credit for making the obvious pick, but the credit I give has to be pretty limited.

 

[Auger34]

Nothing Bill himself has said about Maye leads me to believe he thought he was worthy of the 3rd overall pick.

Didn’t Bill have Nix rated ahead of Maye on his board during that McAfee special?

My guess would be that Belichick traded down once or twice with the goal of drafting Nix

 

[ManicCompression]

In hindsight and in foresight it looks obvious. Wolf could've done that stuff, he also could've drafted Javon Baker #1 overall. The point is that a replacement level GM makes the Maye pick. The only GM in the modern era to trade out of a QB pick at the top of the draft without a potential franchise QB on the roster is Sashi Brown. Polk looks terrible and it's only been one metric showing him getting good separation. ESPN analytics has him as one of the worst receivers in the league, with only Jonathan Mingo getting worse separation.

https://espnanalytics.com/receivers

I don't understand this Sachi Brown stat. Chicago traded out of the top pick last year and I wouldn't call Justin Fields a "franchise QB." They could've stayed and picked Stroud. Carolina could've picked Stroud. All of these decisions matter, even ones you personally decide are obvious later.

 

[soxpatscelts1524]

Didn’t Bill have Nix rated ahead of Maye on his board during that McAfee special?

My guess would be that Belichick traded down once or twice with the goal of drafting Nix

No, that was Field Yates' big board that people misinterpreted as Bill's. McAfee actually said that Belichick had Maye rated as the top QB.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

In hindsight and in foresight it looks obvious. Wolf could've done that stuff, he also could've drafted Javon Baker #1 overall. The point is that a replacement level GM makes the Maye pick. The only GM in the modern era to trade out of a QB pick at the top of the draft without a potential franchise QB on the roster is Sashi Brown. Polk looks terrible and it's only been one metric showing him getting good separation. ESPN analytics has him as one of the worst receivers in the league, with only Jonathan Mingo getting worse separation.

https://espnanalytics.com/receivers

"Potential" is doing a lot of work here.

Bears traded #1 to Carolina when their starting QB was Justin Fields two years in without the lightbulb going on yet in terms of the passing game.

49ers traded #2 to the Bears when their starting QB was CJ Beathard.

Browns traded #5 to the Jets when their starting QB was Brady Quinn.

Cardinals traded #2 to San Diego when their starting QB was Jake Plummer.

 

[soxpatscelts1524]

I don't understand this Sachi Brown stat. Chicago traded out of the top pick last year and I wouldn't call Justin Fields a "franchise QB." They could've stayed and picked Stroud. Carolina could've picked Stroud. All of these decisions matter, even ones you personally decide are obvious later.

At the time, Fields was viewed as a potential franchise QB coming off a relatively decent season. Carolina made the wrong choice at QB, which happens all the time. With the Patriots, we barely even had a choice, with no franchise QB and the 3rd pick in a 3 QB draft.

 

[ManicCompression]

At the time, Fields was viewed as a potential franchise QB coming off a relatively decent season. Carolina made the wrong choice at QB, which happens all the time. With the Patriots, we barely even had a choice, with no franchise QB and the 3rd pick in a 3 QB draft.

No he wasn't. He was viewed as "Let's give this guy one more year with DJ Moore and if it doesn't work out, we'll get someone next year." No one after year 2 of the Justin Fields experience was particularly attached to him as a franchise QB. If Carolina takes Stroud and is really good immediately, we're all talking about how stupid the Bears are and the Commanders would likely be Caleb Williams' team right now.

All these teams have lots of choices. Hell, you could simply look at the threads here discussing whether to trade down to try to get a WR and a tackle in round 1 to then have a good foundation for a rookie QB next year.

 

[soxpatscelts1524]

"Potential" is doing a lot of work here.

Bears traded #1 to Carolina when their starting QB was Justin Fields two years in and not looking that great.

49ers traded #2 to the Bears when their starting QB was CJ Beathard.

Browns traded #5 to the Jets when their starting QB was Brady Quinn.

Cardinals traded #2 to San Diego when their starting QB was Jake Plummer.

Fair, I know this is going to sound like moving the goalposts but I believe I had this in my head because I did some research around the draft on QBs that went before any skill position player. Those QBs went after skill position players, meaning someone else passed on them as well.

Regardless, I'm getting way too bogged down in this point, which I don't even think is all that important. The fact of the matter is, we have a great young QB. We have an absolutely putrid remainder of the roster, we completely whiffed in the draft last year outside of the QB, and we're going to have a very essential offseason next year. When we're asking ourselves, who do we want leading player decisions going into this crucial offseason, I don't think we should be fully tethered to Elliott Wolf just because he happened to make a good pick at QB at #3 when he could've messed it up and done something else. He gets a gold star for that, sure, but I'd rather get someone else as GM next year, given how completely terrible the talent level on this team is.

 

[ManicCompression]

Fair, I know this is going to sound like moving the goalposts but I believe I had this in my head because I did some research around the draft on QBs that went before any skill position player. Those QBs went after skill position players, meaning someone else passed on them as well.

Regardless, I'm getting way too bogged down in this point, which I don't even think is all that important. The fact of the matter is, we have a great young QB. We have an absolutely putrid remainder of the roster, we completely whiffed in the draft last year outside of the QB, and we're going to have a very essential offseason next year. When we're asking ourselves, who do we want leading player decisions going into this crucial offseason, I don't think we should be fully tethered to Elliott Wolf just because he happened to make a good pick at QB at #3 when he could've messed it up and done something else. He gets a gold star for that, sure, but I'd rather get someone else as GM next year, given how completely terrible the talent level on this team is.

Check out this draft after 7 games: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2000_draft.htm

It's so early to decide whether this year was a complete bust or not.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

No he wasn't. He was viewed as "Let's give this guy one more year with DJ Moore and if it doesn't work out, we'll get someone next year." No one after year 2 of the Justin Fields experience was particularly attached to him as a franchise QB. If Carolina takes Stroud and is really good immediately, we're all talking about how stupid the Bears are and the Commanders would likely be Caleb Williams' team right now.

All these teams have lots of choices. Hell, you could simply look at the threads here discussing whether to trade down to try to get a WR and a tackle in round 1 to then have a good foundation for a rookie QB next year.

Certain people seem to forget it was a constant discussion for months as you point out. Trade up, trade down, you’re stupid to draft a QB without an offensive line, you can’t draft a QB before they’re ready, you’re not getting the top 2 QB, so you should trade out.

Draft Marvin Harrison Jr!

Trade back and draft Penix at #33!

The jump Daniels made was the biggest benefits the Pats could have wished for at the #3 pick, even if Daniels turns out to be better. It was from my recollection Caleb and Maye #1, #2 (in an unknown order) from the start of the season to half way though. Maye had a rougher year, but his tools didn’t change. Daniels sprinted up the draft board and the Pats got a consensus #1 or #2 pick (who would likely be #1 if he came out this year) at 3 Without giving up any draft capital.

 

[DJnVa]

The Maye pick is somewhere in between, where any GM in the NFL, including a replacement level GM is going to take him in the patriots situation 90-95% of the time, so I'm fine with giving Wolf a little credit for making the obvious pick, but the credit I give has to be pretty limited.

This board had a poll. More than 30% didn't want Maye at #3. Now, 70% is a majority, but it wasn't a slam dunk on this board.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

This board had a poll. More than 30% didn't want Maye at #3. Now, 70% is a majority, but it wasn't a slam dunk on this board.

Can you post the link to it here? I’d love to reread the whole thread and searching sucks at times.

 

[Hoya81]

And let’s not forget Dick MacPherson, who followed up his six win debut season with a two win campaign. But I think his list was just of guys that had a little success despite the 1-2 win season. And neither Rust nor MacPherson ever had NFL head coaching success.

If they had anything resembling a functional QB in the McPhearson years, he might have hung on, but they rolled the dice on Tom Hodson and Hugh Millen for some reason.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Robinson was pretty terrible honestly, he was one of the worst pass-blockers in the league.

Now... he's a 4th round rookie. He probably shouldn't be starting anyway, and we've seen big imrpovement in other OL over a year or 2.

To me, you can't judge a draft pick really until mid-year 2 at the earliest, and probably year 3 for anybody drafted after the 1st two rounds.

Im not that concerned about the draft so far. It appears they might have hit on the pick that is far more important than all the rest combined in Maye. Everybody else is a work in progress, and even the ones who are struggling have shown something to project on, whether it be Robinson's initial run block success, Wallace's pretty decent work as the 6th OL on the right (yes he was terrible the one game they had to start him at LT), or Polk getting open (now if only he could catch).

Yes Maye is the most important part.

Refresher: Wolf reached by quite a bit on most of the remaining picks. You should be concerned that the entire rest of the draft has not done anything of note early on. Why wouldn't you be? You are a draft and develop team that hasn't shown that they can actually draft well. Sample size of one draft but Polk looks bad, Wallace couldn't beat out garbage to snag the RT spot and looked awful at LT, and then got hurt, and the rest of the guys haven't done anything of note. You can't just sweep the rest of the draft under the rug - the draft matters. You need to hit outside of your first round pick.

I'll address Robinson later in this...

Yeah, I was grading pretty heavily on a curve there for Robinson - pretty decent for a fourth round rookie thrown into the fire.

I agree that we won't know much for another year but its not implausible to me that either him or Wallace or both end up as solid NFL players.

I think both will be NFL players, question is how high up... Robinson could to me end up anywhere from deep bench of spot starter. Wallace could be a starting RT I still believe.

Robinson, a reach at the time, has shown that he still doesn't know his ass from his elbow in pass pro. He is still making the same mistakes he made in college. Robinson was considered a reach because his pass pro in college was that bad. Wallace, again, couldn't beat out awful options at OT.

Yeah sure, jury is still out, but so far this has been a disappointing 7 games from their draft class even given that you can't count on rookies much at all.

No need to sugar-coat it. Initial results have been bad. The chances of Wallace being anything good have gone down since they drafted him. Same with Robinson.

Their pro-evaluations have sucked too. Aside from Maye almost every single move Wolf has made via FA or the draft has not worked out so far.

Quick edit: I liked signing Onwenu, Dugger, Peppers. Aside from those his middle tier of guys have all missed.

 

[DJnVa]

Can you post the link to it here? I’d love to reread the whole thread and searching sucks at times.

What do you want Pats to do with #3? | Sons of Sam Horn

 

[NortheasternPJ]

What do you want Pats to do with #3? | Sons of Sam Horn

Thank you!

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Seems to me that one of the biggest indictments of the draft class is that, other than Maye, none of the other guys drafted (or signed as UDFA) have really contributed anything despite this being a roster many (most?) think is one of the worst in the NFL.

Seriously…Who is the 2nd best rookie thus far? Dell Pettus? Robinson has played (very poorly). Wallace was passable as a “big TE/3rd tackle” but have either of them shown to be guys better than in house options or good bets to be useful next season?

If your roster is bad, bad enough to get the GOAT coach fired, how do you not find at least 2-3 guys who are vaguely useful upgrades from last year’s squad?

By comparison, Washington has found Luke McCaffrey, Johnny Newton, Mikey Sainristil and Brandon Coleman (plus Ben Sinnott)

The Giants (setting 1st round Nabers aside) got Theo Johnson, Tyrone Tracy and Tyler Nubin

Even the Panthers found two guys who have come in and played well outside their first rounder (JaTavion Sanders and Trevin Wallace)

It’s one thing for a stacked roster to not get a lot of contributions from their rookie class but if we are to believe that the roster is amongst the worst in the league, it should have been easy for Wolf to find a few upgrades here and there. Even if you’re going from “obvious garbage” to “vaguely useful role player”

Sure, give him credit for Maye. But other than that, is this roster on aggregate better than the one he inherited? He had a full off-season, a full allotment of draft picks. And this roster does not seem to have improved meaningfully anywhere outside of kicker and QB. There’s probably 45 roster spots equal or worse today than this time last year.

 

[mcpickl]

Man, after the Patriots went up 10-0 by putting the ball in Maye's hands, they called running plays on 8 or the next 11 first downs. They are still approaching these matchups as if they can run the ball to shorten the game and then force some punts when they can't do either right now.

While the Patriots were going up 10-0 by "putting the ball in Maye's hands", they also ran of 5 of those 9 first downs.

The 4 they didn't were a Maye scramble from pressure for 2 yards, incomplete pass, sack, and a 3 yard completion.

Of all the weird AVP complaints, this week complaining about him running the ball is the weirdest.

He called 40 passes to 12 runs.

 

[Cellar-Door]

While the Patriots were going up 10-0 by "putting the ball in Maye's hands", they also ran of 5 of those 9 first downs.

The 4 they didn't were a Maye scramble from pressure for 2 yards, incomplete pass, sack, and a 3 yard completion.

Of all the weird AVP complaints, this week complaining about him running the ball is the weirdest.

He called 40 passes to 12 runs.

Every 1st down run that doesn't get 5 yards was a bad run according to this board, and has been since at least the Charlie Weiss era. Every OC gets massively outsized criticism, McDaniels was one of the best in the league for years and people here hated his playcalling. Also, if you have more than 3 runs get stopped for less than 4 yards you should just never run another time all game seems to be the consensus.