January 2020 General NBA Game Thread

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Not enough attention has been given to the embarrassing effort from Dame and CJ this year. This is piss poor pathetic
Lillard is top 15 in both RPM and PIPM. The Blazers aren't losing because of him - they are losing because he and McCollum are not good defenders (due mostly to size and not effort) and the roster has no help around them. Aminu and Harkless helped them in that regard but they were generally terrible on offense so I can't kill Portland for letting them go. They lowkey kind of miss Evan Turner too.
 

ElUno20

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Lillard is top 15 in both RPM and PIPM. The Blazers aren't losing because of him - they are losing because he and McCollum are not good defenders (due mostly to size and not effort) and the roster has no help around them. Aminu and Harkless helped them in that regard but they were generally terrible on offense so I can't kill Portland for letting them go. They lowkey kind of miss Evan Turner too.
I hate this take. No boxscore can tell you what watching these two apathetic aholes for even a quarter can. They simply are not playing hard. I don't care what the stats say. I've watched them enough this year and it's clear they dont give an F. Especially McCollum.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I hate this take. No boxscore can tell you what watching these two apathetic aholes for even a quarter can. They simply are not playing hard. I don't care what the stats say. I've watched them enough this year and it's clear they dont give an F. Especially McCollum.
Its not really a take. In the case of Lillard, I was just quoting stats. You clearly don't believe that they are telling an accurate story which is fine. The rest about what ails Portland is takey but the data backs that up as well.

Regardless, Portland is scuffling and even a McCollum trade may not save them.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not enough attention has been given to the embarrassing effort from Dame and CJ this year. This is piss poor pathetic. The laziest i got paid and mailing it in performances in years
What is funny about reading this is that I was telling my buddy here the other day that despite the Blazers letting their entire frontcourt go and replacing them with Whiteside and unproven players while totally ducking with the chemistry which helped them overachieve last year that I was impressed with how Lillard and CJ haven't missed a beat. They are playing the same identical games they have in the past despite the dysfunction around them. Not saying you are right or wrong just that how two people can watch the same thing and come to completely different conclusions-



Ok, I lied. I think you are very wrong. :)
 

Sam Ray Not

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Tying a couple threads together, the next time KD gets into it with CJ McCollum, he should bust out El Uno's "Piss Poor Pathetic" and "Apathetic A-Hole" lines, lol.
 

Tony C

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The way the Mavs are playing I assumed this was either their first game back from a road trip or, at least, 2nd of a back to back. Nope....but they're sure playing like it -- gave up 45 in the 1st q to an AD-less Lakers.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Pelicans have won 8 out of 11. Curious to see what the line will be for the game tomorrow night.
Was going to guess 7 or 7.5......a couple offshores are up at 8.5 and 9. Celtics still getting respect with two teams heading in opposite directions.
 

ElUno20

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I know simmons is an elite defender and does so many great things on the court...but he cant score 11 points in a big game on the road with no embiid. Step up kid. 0 for in the 2nd half too.
 

128

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I know simmons is an elite defender and does so many great things on the court...but he cant score 11 points in a big game on the road with no embiid. Step up kid. 0 for in the 2nd half too.
The fucking Sixers have these lapses against everybody except Boston.
 

lovegtm

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The fucking Sixers have these lapses against everybody except Boston.
Celtics regular season games are clearly some kind of weird Super Bowl for them. Embiid got emotional after the last win.

I do think they'll be way better playoffs than regular season, since I expect them to bring that intensity more consistently. With a halfway competent backup center, they would have beaten Toronto last year imo.
 

lovegtm

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I just don’t understand this disparity. Is it the coaching? Too much partying on the road?
Just from watching them a decent amount, I’d say they have a thin margin as currently constructed. It’s not like the Bucks, who have an overwhelming base offense and defense against poor to ok teams.

The Sixers have a really high top-end, but they have to expend a lot of mental and physical energy to hit it, and that’s just not realistic over the 82 game grind. When they really dig in and get up for it, as we’ve seen with Milwaukee and Boston, they can be really good.
 

amarshal2

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Knicks beat Miami putting Celtics back in the 2 seed. SA even with Toronto late in Siakam’s return game.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I just don’t understand this disparity. Is it the coaching? Too much partying on the road?
Maybe leadership but once it gets to this point it becomes more mental than anything. Coaches and players begin overthinking ways to play better on the road rather than simply playing free and easy which leads to poor effort/poor resiliency. One of my college teams went through similar struggles on the road and once you begin thinking about it you are screwed. It's negative reinforcement.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Utah has quietly reeled off nine wins in a row and 15 of their last 17 - they are now at the two seed spot in the West.

They are currently seventh in differential overall and are second in offensive eFG% and fourth in defensive eFG%. They are doing this all without Mike Conley who is out with a hamstring injury and has looked pretty terrible during his first season in Utah (36.5% from the field...yikes!).

What has helped them is an unlikely catalyst in Jordan Clarkson who has been very good since coming over from the Cavs as well as Bojan Bogdanovic, who is having a very good season amid a much higher usage pattern than previous years. Joe Ingles, who struggled early on, is also playing better.

I don't think Utah is going to threaten the Clippers or Lakers that much in the West but if you are looking for a team that has a shot if things fall right for them, you could do worse than Utah. They are well coached and are very good defensively. Like the Celtics, they don't have any superstars but Mitchell is getting there as his efficiency creeps up and they are diversified enough on offense that they have to be tough to game-plan against.
 
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Sam Ray Not

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Per 36 minutes this season

Kawhi Leonard: 28.8 pts on .562 true shooting
D'Angelo Russell: 27.1 pts on .562 true shooting
LeBron James: 26.1 pts on .569 true shooting
 

HomeRunBaker

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Per 36 minutes this season

Kawhi Leonard: 28.8 pts on .562 true shooting
D'Angelo Russell: 27.1 pts on .562 true shooting
LeBron James: 26.1 pts on .569 true shooting
Russell was really good last night too. He kept it a single-digit game until the 2nd unit of G-Leaguers came in and immediately turned it into a 20-pt game late 3rd. It is flying under the radar that Russell’s leap last year wasn’t a fluke and is sustainable. Of course if he remains a Warrior next year his numbers will dip along with his role.
 

lovegtm

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Per 36 minutes this season

Kawhi Leonard: 28.8 pts on .562 true shooting
D'Angelo Russell: 27.1 pts on .562 true shooting
LeBron James: 26.1 pts on .569 true shooting
And yet, somehow, no one is jumping to trade either of those other two guys for the 24 year-old, cheaper D-Lo. Almost as if there is another side of the floor, and as if TS% doesn't capture a ton of what goes into team offensive output...
 

Sam Ray Not

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Utah has quietly reeled off nine wins in a row and 15 of their last 17 - they are now at the two seed spot in the West.

They are currently seventh in differential overall and are second in offensive eFG% and fourth in defensive eFG%. They are doing this all without Mike Conley who is out with a hamstring injury and has looked pretty terrible during his first season in Utah (36.5% from the field...yikes!).

What has helped them is an unlikely catalyst in Jordan Clarkson who has been very good since coming over from the Cavs as well as Bojan Bogdanovic, who is having a very good season amid a much higher usage pattern than previous years. Joe Ingles, who struggled early on, is also playing better.

I don't think Utah is going to threaten the Clippers or Lakers that much in the West but if you are looking for a team that has a shot if things fall right for them, you could do worse than Utah. They are well coached and are very good defensively. Like the Celtics, they don't have any superstars but Mitchell is getting there as his efficiency creeps up and they are diversified enough on offense that they have to be tough to game-plan against.
Impressive indeed. The biggest ingredient has been a huge jump in their overall three-point efficiency and volume since the bombing Rockets buried them in last year's playoffs. Great piece on it a couple days ago in the Athletic (part of a series on the 3-ball and its transformation of the game): https://theathletic.com/1521661/2020/01/09/the-philosophy-and-the-exhausting-drill-that-has-helped-the-jazz-become-the-nbas-best-3-point-shooting-team/
 
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Sam Ray Not

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And yet, somehow, no one is jumping to trade either of those other two guys for the 24 year-old, cheaper D-Lo. Almost as if there is another side of the floor, and as if TS% doesn't capture a ton of what goes into team offensive output...
I mean, # of possessions being equal, the team with a higher TS% wins 100% of games (by definition, since TS = points per possession divided by two). But I was hoping people would get that my point wasn't actually that DLo is as good as LeBron or Kawhi, lol. His defense remains a train wreck work in progress, for one thing. Just noting the increasingly clear uptick in his scoring efficiency, which is exactly what you want to see in an improving 23 year old all-star.

Setting aside the two best players on the planet, I would say DLo's basically Donovan Mitchell if Spida' were (1) lefty; (2) a qualitatively better passer and floor general; and (3) three inches taller. That seems like a solidly good thing to have, but YMMV.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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John Collins
Block %
17/18: 3.8%
18/19: 1.8%
19/20: 5.9%

He had 39 blocks in 61 games last year. He has 30 in 14 so far this year. In his rookie year, he had 80 in 74. Kinda curious since he isn't exactly long. Hawks are still losing but Collins puts up some numbers. 17.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.1 blocks on .490/.333/.756 shooting.
 

bowiac

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Russell was really good last night too. He kept it a single-digit game until the 2nd unit of G-Leaguers came in and immediately turned it into a 20-pt game late 3rd. It is flying under the radar that Russell’s leap last year wasn’t a fluke and is sustainable. Of course if he remains a Warrior next year his numbers will dip along with his role.
The Warriors, G-Leaguers and all, have a better net rating with Russell on the bench. His various fancy numbers are equally lackluster. On a projection level, DARKO has him at somewhere between the 203rd and 259th best player in the league, depending on whether you want to look at the box-only version, or the on-off aware version.

Your mileage may vary.
 

dhellers

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Cavs playing build a 14 put lead in 2nd quarter, but la cuts it to 1 at half. Love scored a bit to build the lead, but was useless (missing shots and bystander D) when LA came back.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Cavs playing build a 14 put lead in 2nd quarter, but la cuts it to 1 at half. Love scored a bit to build the lead, but was useless (missing shots and bystander D) when LA came back.
You are a stronger person than me. That is one game I just cant watch...
 

lovegtm

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I mean, # of possessions being equal, the team with a higher TS% wins 100% of games (by definition, since TS = points per possession divided by two). But I was hoping people would get that my point wasn't actually that DLo is as good as LeBron or Kawhi, lol. His defense remains a train wreck work in progress, for one thing. Just noting the increasingly clear uptick in his scoring efficiency, which is exactly what you want to see in an improving 23 year old all-star.

Setting aside the two best players on the planet, I would say DLo's basically Donovan Mitchell if Spida' were (1) lefty; (2) a qualitatively better passer and floor general; and (3) three inches taller. That seems like a solidly good thing to have, but YMMV.
The problem is that TS% only covers the possessions a player actually shoots on. It doesn’t take into account:

1. the other 80% of shots when he’s on the floor
2. the quality of assisted shots he creates
3. hockey assists
4. his spacing/gravity/cutting
5. turnovers

So TS% tells us that D-Lo is good on the 21 possessions per game that end with him shooting. The other possessions don’t seem to go so great, even adjusting for team quality.

Incidentally, this is why I’d always take Tatum over Brown (who I like), even though Brown puts up higher TS on decent usage.

Steph Curry would still be an amazing, defense-warping player at 58% TS if he kept the same playing style and shot profile.

I need to coin a word that means “just eyeballing TS+assists and assessing a player accordingly.”. Duncan-LeRoux-itis isn’t catchy, but would be accurate.
 

lovegtm

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Further to that point, here are 3 images from last night's game that show stuff Kemba does on the ~75% of possessions that don't get counted in his TS% (click for full-size):







1. Smart isos Markannen and draws the foul. Dunn is a good, aware defender, but Walker spaces way back of the 3-point line, and Dunn can't dig, because Walker will either get a 3 or be able to get a huge advantage on the closeout.

2. Kemba is spaced close to Smart, and again Dunn can't dig, because he'll leave Smart with a short pass for the 3.

3. Kemba's cut is an emergency that Santoransky helps on, leaving Smart for the 3 that he hits.

The Celtics are +11 offensively with Kemba on the floor, and that has very, very little to do with whether his TS% is 59% (this year), or 56% (last year, when a shit Hornets team had the #11 offense).

Kemba and D-Lo are both meh to bad defenders, and have similar TS%, but every single GM in the league would take Kemba over D-Lo (this year, age is a different consideration), because Kemba is in a different offensive stratosphere, regardless of his TS%.
 

HomeRunBaker

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So TS% tells us that D-Lo is good on the 21 possessions per game that end with him shooting. The other possessions don’t seem to go so great, even adjusting for team quality.
These possessions shouldn’t end so great. His teammates are last pretty much last across the board in everything shooting by a good margin. Numbers lie without context.

Would those possessions end differently, and Russell be rated higher by these metrics, if Curry and Klay were taking those shots rather than Alec Burks, Damion Lee, and Jacob Evans?
 
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Sam Ray Not

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All great points, lovegtm; but as I said, I wasn't implying that DLo's value was anywhere near the level of Kawhi or LeBron (who, holy heck, is lapping the field in advanced stats at age 35). Or even Kemba. I was "just noting the increasingly clear uptick in his scoring efficiency, which is exactly what you want to see in an improving 23 year old all-star."

I don't take too much from his adjusted plus-minus numbers at this point since (a) those take longer to normalize; and (b) he has been thrown into a laughably bad situation this season, jumping onto a new team devastated by injuries and full of babies and G-leaguers, yo-yoing in and out of the lineup with two separate hand injuries and then — right when the team had started to win some games and in the middle of an epic game in which he was totally balling out against Doncic — wrenching his neck/shoulder out and missing another six games.

Given all that, all I really want to see in his development to this point is (a) better defensive effort and use of his size (6'-10" wingspan) on that end; and (b) an improvement in his shooting and a more Harden-esque shot selection — i.e. fewer mid-rangers and tough floaters, more 3fg, decisive drives, and fta. I think the D is still mostly a trainwreck, but that's been a team-wide thing; and again, it's hard to judge too harshly given the inconsistency, youth, and quality of his floormates. But he has pretty clearly checked the box on the scoring efficiency, even with the caveats about overall offensive impact that you note.

As far as that list of other things that make for good offense: I think DLo's more of mixed bag than you imply. His penchant for P&R and dribble-dribble-dribble is obviously an awkward fit in an idealized Kerr motion offense. Stuff like screening, cutting, running off multiple screens, etc. is all pretty new to him. On the "quality of assisted shots" test, though, I think he passes with flying colors. He's a really spectacular passer — far more creative and advanced than Kemba at comparable age (if partly cos those 4-5 inches of height give him much better court vision). He averaged 8.3 assists per 36 last season (only player other than the Big O to average 25 pts/ 8 ast per 36 before age 23, to use a SRN stat); and while that has dropped to 6.8 this year with his crud floormates, he's till good for a couple of beautiful, highlight reel passes a game. Cross-court, push-ahead, home-run, pocket-pass, alley-oop, lefty, righty — he's got the full arsenal. And: his turnover rate is not bad for his high level of usage (3.4 tov per 36 on 32.4 USG).

Beyond the on-court stuff, despite all the losing, his overall demeanor (body language on court, support for his teammates on the bench, attitude in interviews) has been consistently positive — much more Kemba-like than Kyrie-like.

A-/B+ at the half-way point, imho.
 
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lovegtm

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All great points, lovegtm; but as I said, I wasn't implying that DLo's value was anywhere near the level of Kawhi or LeBron (who, holy heck, is lapping the field in advanced stats at age 35). Or even Kemba. I was "just noting the increasingly clear uptick in his scoring efficiency, which is exactly what you want to see in an improving 23 year old all-star."

I don't take too much from his adjusted plus-minus numbers at this point since (a) those take longer to normalize; and (b) he has been thrown into a laughably bad situation this season, jumping onto a new team devastated by injuries and full of babies and G-leaguers, yo-yoing in and out of the lineup with two separate hand injuries and then — right when the team had started to win some games and in the middle of an epic game in which he was totally balling out against Doncic — wrenching his neck/shoulder out and missing another six games.

Given all that, all I really want to see in his development to this point is (a) better defensive effort and use of his size (6'-10" wingspan) on that end; and (b) an improvement in his shooting and a more Harden-esque shot selection — i.e. fewer mid-rangers and tough floaters, more 3fg, decisive drives, and fta. I think the D is still mostly a trainwreck, but that's been a team-wide thing; and again, it's hard to judge too harshly given the inconsistency, youth, and quality of his floormates. But he has pretty clearly checked the box on the scoring efficiency, even with the caveats about overall offensive impact that you note.

As far as that list of other things that make for good offense: I think DLo's more of mixed bag than you imply. His penchant for P&R and dribble-dribble-dribble is obviously an awkward fit in an idealized Kerr motion offense. Stuff like screening, cutting, running off multiple screens, etc. is all pretty new to him. On the "quality of assisted shots" test, though, I think he passes with flying colors. He's a really spectacular passer — far more creative and advanced than Kemba at comparable age (if partly cos those 4-5 inches of height give him much better court vision). He averaged 8.3 assists per 36 last season (only player other than the Big O to average 25 pts/ 8 ast per 36 before age 23, to use a SRN stat); and while that has dropped to 6.8 this year with his crud floormates, he's till good for a couple of beautiful, highlight reel passes a game. Cross-court, push-ahead, home-run, pocket-pass, alley-oop, lefty, righty — he's got the full arsenal. And: his turnover rate is not bad for his high level of usage (3.4 tov per 36 on 32.4 USG).

Beyond the on-court stuff, despite all the losing, his overall demeanor (body language on court, support for his teammates on the bench, attitude in interviews) has been consistently positive — much more Kemba-like than Kyrie-like.

A-/B+ at the half-way point, imho.
Yeah, I get the bull case for D-Lo, and I do think there is some positive stuff despite the poor impact numbers.

The problem for GSW is that the target audience isn't me (or anyone here): it's NBA GMs with trade assets that make sense for next year's Dubs. "A-/B+" might be his grade in terms of personal improvement, but not many GMs would grade him as A-/B+ at 4/126.

I don't get think D-LO+ top-5 pick in a bad draft gets you anywhere close for Giannis, and I'm not sure what else is out there. I don't think Boston does him for Hayward in the summer, for example.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Yeah, I get the bull case for D-Lo, and I do think there is some positive stuff despite the poor impact numbers.

The problem for GSW is that the target audience isn't me (or anyone here): it's NBA GMs with trade assets that make sense for next year's Dubs. "A-/B+" might be his grade in terms of personal improvement, but not many GMs would grade him as A-/B+ at 4/126.

I don't get think D-LO+ top-5 pick in a bad draft gets you anywhere close for Giannis, and I'm not sure what else is out there. I don't think Boston does him for Hayward in the summer, for example.
I mean, nothing gets you Giannis, unless he refuses to re-up and demands out of Milwaukee. In that scenario, one would assume GS is high up on his list; and I don't think DLo plus young assets (Paschall, Spellman, e.g.) plus top 5 pick is too far off what the Pels got for Anthony Davis. I think Brandon Ingram right now is about the same caliber of player/asset as DLo (those Lakers #2 picks stick together, lol); and there was no guarantee when the Pels made that trade that Ingram would blow up into the player he is now. (He's on a cheaper deal for this season, but will be pulling DLo money starting next season).

Beyond the Giannis pipedream, who knows. A lot will be eye of the beholder / team need. A lot of teams are set at PG. But for ones that aren't, I'd think DLo's age 24-27 seasons at $30M a year is an easy A-/B+. Heck, if the Celtics were slightly less "GFIN" mode, I think he might have been a better use of Kemba money than Kemba. I lobbied for you guys to nab him this offseason, as he would have slotted in nicely in terms of age and game with the Jays, and brought some potential defensive versatility with his size if Stevens could coach him up a bit.

The most obvious landing spot is still probably MIN, who badly need a PG / shot creator, and could pair him with his BFF Towns, thereby (theoretically) keeping their one franchise player happy. I'd assume every asset Minny has outside of KAT (Covington, Dieng, Okogie, Culvert, draft picks, whatever) is on the table for DLo if and when the Warriors want it. I wouldn't consider something like RoCo + Dieng + Okogie + a protected pick an awful haul. With that in their back pocket, the Ws can shop around and see what disgruntled players on disgruntled teams shake out in the offseason (Ben Simmons, e.g....?)
 

Devizier

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What gets close to the Pels package is basically the future boat of draft picks, which had added value because the Lakers are on the old side and the picks come after their immediate window is likely closed.