Jarren Duran: Another Foray to Worcester

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The FA CF situation is rather grim. From MLB Trade Rumors:

Shogo Akiyama (35)
Jackie Bradley Jr. (33)
Lorenzo Cain (37)
Delino DeShields (30)
Billy Hamilton (32)
Kiké Hernandez (31)
Odubel Herrera (31)
Travis Jankowski (32)
Kevin Kiermaier (33) – $13MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout
Jake Marisnick (32)
Tyler Naquin (32)
Brandon Nimmo (30)
Kevin Pillar (34)

Nimmo is great but seemingly always hurt. And the price will be high. Besides that, it's Kiké or bust. Or Judge?
Rays aren’t bringing KK back. If his hip heals up ok, can very much see Bloom being in on him for a short, cheap deal. Tampa North!
 

A Bad Man

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Rays aren’t bringing KK back. If his hip heals up ok, can very much see Bloom being in on him for a short, cheap deal. Tampa North!
KK is interesting, good point. Wonder what that would look like? So perhaps not quite as grim as I thought. But still feeling sketchy.
 

chawson

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Kiké on a 1/$8-10 contract is the best shot we have at above-average CF play next year, barring a trade. I don't know about Kiermaier. He's got the reputation but he's declined in the field and at the plate, and Kiké defense is probably just as good nowadays. Plus I'm so tired of these low-pop lefty bats in the outfield.
 

YTF

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Rays aren’t bringing KK back. If his hip heals up ok, can very much see Bloom being in on him for a short, cheap deal. Tampa North!
Kiké on a 1/$8-10 contract is the best shot we have at above-average CF play next year, barring a trade. I don't know about Kiermaier. He's got the reputation but he's declined in the field and at the plate, and Kiké defense is probably just as good nowadays. Plus I'm so tired of these low-pop lefty bats in the outfield.
KK and Kike'... One just had hip surgery and there other probably needs it. Sign them both on the cheap as LH/RH platoon and make them run the three legged race around the bases as in between inning entertainment.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Low-level trade for Michael Taylor or Ramon Laureano? Not exciting, but the price would be right.

EDIT: More immediately, the Pirates released Jake Marisnick if you just want a CF, any CF for the rest of this year.
 
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Rovin Romine

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There's a non-zero chance our 2023 OF is Verdugo-Hernandez-Pham with Duran on the bench, and some AAA buzz around Valdez et. al. Especially if some of them start hitting for the final month.

This public service message has been brought to you by The Bobby Dalbec Experience, directing cool breezes to fans on the third base line since May of 2022.
 

GB5

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No to Kike or kiermayer. You just went through this with the pitching staff. You pinned a lot of your hopes on Sale, Paxton, Hill and Wacha…and they are all currently broken…who could have foreseen this coming!!!

Kiermayer just had a tough surgery that required him to miss the 2nd half of the season.

Kike is going to miss 85% of this season, along with setbacks in his recovery.

If you are a small market team, sign them and hope they produce to previous levels and then wheel them for prospects at the deadline.

If you are a 220 mill + payroll team, find a guy who hasn’t been on crutches for the past 6 months.
 

mikcou

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There's a non-zero chance our 2023 OF is Verdugo-Hernandez-Pham with Duran on the bench, and some AAA buzz around Valdez et. al. Especially if some of them start hitting for the final month.

This public service message has been brought to you by The Bobby Dalbec Experience, directing cool breezes to fans on the third base line since May of 2022.
Is this a universe where they are trying to compete? Because that is a really bad outfield. The only guy who could be average to above average outfielder has what seems to be a pretty serious hip problem.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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I can't speak to Kaufman Stadium, but a lot of places don't even give you the cap if you buy at the stands, if you don't get it in a cup.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yeah that's not even remotely the same.
I dunno, if you asked me how far a person could throw a beer cap, I would not have guessed anywhere close to 229.3 feet.

I know you can throw a plastic bottle cap a lot further than 15-20 feet. Especially with the height advantage fans would have over Duran. How are you even throwing the bottle cap? Over hand? Then you are doing it wrong. Do you know how to fire a plastic bottle cap?

edit: I mean, it would probably tickle if it did hit him but it's further than 15-20 feet.
 

ArttyG12

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Seems to me that Jackie was DFA'ed because one of two things was about to happen:
1) (the optimistic version) some combination of Kiké and Duran are the starting/backup CF, so you give JBJ a chance to catch on somewhere or
2) (the current dumpster fire) this team tanks and Jackie isn't good enough to be a difference maker. So you see what you really have in Duran over a couple months and, again, JBJ gets a chance to catch on somewhere.

Duran seems like a nightmare but I don't think JBJ makes a difference beyond optics, and releasing him may have been to his benefit either way.
 

tbb345

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Sean McAdam eviscerates Duran, and the Sox handling of him, in the BSJ this morning. That’s not exactly McAdam’s style.
can you post some quotes or give a general synopsis of what he said?
 

8slim

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can you post some quotes or give a general synopsis of what he said?
Here are a few lines that capture the spirit of the piece...

"As such, it should be obvious to them by now that Jarren Duran is not the answer in center field. The operative phrase there, however, is should be. Because despite all the evidence in front of their own eyes, they refuse to publicly acknowledge the obvious."

"Instead, the Red Sox continue to protect Duran. They habitually remind anyone who will listen that Duran is "young,'' when, in fact, he's not. Not in baseball terms, anyway."

"Suggesting that Duran is only struggling because of his age, or noting that he's making big strides is not helping the player. For that matter, such coddling isn't helping Duran."


McAdam wrote things that have been echoed by posters here. Just struck me as particularly damning since he's not exactly known as a hot-takez guy.

By the way, BSJ costs me $35/year. McAdam's coverage alone is well worth that.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I really think - hit on here plenty of times- that the key to a team is developing a consistent farm system through drafts and smart trades (and I’m putting the Vazquez one in this category) with the occasional FA signing to put a home grown team over the top- with some other supplemental signings that have a good year.
Step one is the farm… and it’s depleted. I think Bloom is working on that while also trying to at least fulfill what I read as a direction from He ry to also “compete”. I mean… look at the deadline. It was half-in and half-out and only makes sense if there’s two different philosophies being implemented. SOSH people may love a full tear down year but the more casual fans that go to games want to see a team compete year in and year out. Bloom needs more time but not sure if he’ll get it.
 

E5 Yaz

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This all naturally leads to the obvious question: Who would you rather see play for Boston next season ... Duran or Durant?
 

Cesar Crespo

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I really think - hit on here plenty of times- that the key to a team is developing a consistent farm system through drafts and smart trades (and I’m putting the Vazquez one in this category) with the occasional FA signing to put a home grown team over the top- with some other supplemental signings that have a good year.
Step one is the farm… and it’s depleted. I think Bloom is working on that while also trying to at least fulfill what I read as a direction from He ry to also “compete”. I mean… look at the deadline. It was half-in and half-out and only makes sense if there’s two different philosophies being implemented. SOSH people may love a full tear down year but the more casual fans that go to games want to see a team compete year in and year out. Bloom needs more time but not sure if he’ll get it.
The farm system should start producing next year and in 2024 or Bloom needs to be fired. I don't expect much from 2023 other than some players actually breaking in/sticking. If the team doesn't have any cost controlled players after 2023, it's a pretty big strike against Bloom.
 

Ale Xander

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This all naturally leads to the obvious question: Who would you rather see play for Boston next season ... Duran or Durant?
Le Bon and Co. at Leader Bank Pavilion.

Oh wait, you said for, not in.
 

GB5

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I think the point I was trying to make regarding the injuries is that the RS signed guys especially to the pitching staff that had a recent history of being broken, and that’s why the Sox were able to get them on the cheap.

Wacha had a history the prior three years of shoulder injury, hamstring, shoulder injury. This year he is intercostal injury, dead arm and shoulder injury.

Hill’s injury history, plus advanced age, are too much to go into.

The Red Sox signed these guys on the cheap, and then they both most significant time with injuries.

The problem is that this was 40% of your starting staff. Injuries were the much more likely result than these guys making 30 starts, 25, 20 even.

With the injury to Sale, I had no problem with that. A line drive to the finger is not predictive. However given Sale’s recent chronic history, should we have been surprised when he had his setback while rehabbing?

My issue is that signing injury prone guys, for small market teams is potentially great business. You get them for less money than they would be worth if healthy. If the pitcher stays healthy and pitches well, you trade them at the deadline for good prospects and your investment pays off. Or if somehow you land in contention then the pitcher stays and hopefully pitches you into the playoffs.

If the pitcher stinks or remains injured, who cares, you were going to finish in last place anyways.

For the Sox so much of their pitching staff was set up with guys who had recent high end injury history, I know Sale and Paxton may be different but adding them in with Hill and Wacha created such a high risk of it going bad, that there should have been more certainty with a 230 million dollar payroll.
 

Ganthem

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I think the point I was trying to make regarding the injuries is that the RS signed guys especially to the pitching staff that had a recent history of being broken, and that’s why the Sox were able to get them on the cheap.

Wacha had a history the prior three years of shoulder injury, hamstring, shoulder injury. This year he is intercostal injury, dead arm and shoulder injury.

Hill’s injury history, plus advanced age, are too much to go into.

The Red Sox signed these guys on the cheap, and then they both most significant time with injuries.

The problem is that this was 40% of your starting staff. Injuries were the much more likely result than these guys making 30 starts, 25, 20 even.

With the injury to Sale, I had no problem with that. A line drive to the finger is not predictive. However given Sale’s recent chronic history, should we have been surprised when he had his setback while rehabbing?

My issue is that signing injury prone guys, for small market teams is potentially great business. You get them for less money than they would be worth if healthy. If the pitcher stays healthy and pitches well, you trade them at the deadline for good prospects and your investment pays off. Or if somehow you land in contention then the pitcher stays and hopefully pitches you into the playoffs.

If the pitcher stinks or remains injured, who cares, you were going to finish in last place anyways.

For the Sox so much of their pitching staff was set up with guys who had recent high end injury history, I know Sale and Paxton may be different but adding them in with Hill and Wacha created such a high risk of it going bad, that there should have been more certainty with a 230 million dollar payroll.
The problem with this argument is that Bloom had to have known they would all be injured at the same time. I don't think Bloom and company thought they would get 180 to 200 innings from Sale, Paxton, Hill or Wacha. The idea was to have enough depth to cover the inevitable injuries. The odds of those injuries all happening at the same time was unlikely. It is a freak situation. I am also going to point out that Bloom's plan worked. When Sale went down earlier then expected Wacha was able to step into the rotation with favorable results. Houck did just fine when he was in the rotation as did Whitlock when he replaced Houck. Then when the rash of injuries occurred, Winchowski and Crawford stepped in with mostly favorable results. The amount of starting pitching depth, especially if you compare it to 2020, is actually very impressive.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Yesterday, on the two alleged triples (I feel bad for Schreiber getting charged with earned runs there) you could see he was afraid of the wall. He doesn't have enough kinesthetic awareness to sense when he's getting close, and seems afraid to go hard into a wall. The out is not the most important thing to him, his safety is. He's obviously done the research on that.

FWIW, I played centerfield through community college. We were taught to put an arm out to sense the wall if there was time, but otherwise, track the ball. I had some fun accidents with walls and fences, but my favorite was running full speed into a 3' high chain link fence, flipping over it, and losing the ball when I landed. Probably not a home run, but I carried it over the fence with me.

Bottom line, he sucks defensively and he's not going to get much better.
Thanks for sharing your experience.
Like so many things in baseball, the skill of playing balls at the wall is, I think, part natural (instinct or having that kinesthetic awareness) and part practice. I recall hearing the radio guys saying that JBJ would shag a lot of flies on the road -- practicing and getting used to a relatively foreign field. Given how we so often saw Jackie go into a little jump to soften the blow as he approached a wall, I'm sure part of what he was doing in his practice time was figuring out how many strides he would take to get the wall. Not that in the heat of the moment he'd be counting his steps (or maybe he would?) but I expect that between his natural awareness and his practice he just "knew" where the wall was. He clearly also had a great sense from seeing the ball off the bat where it was going, so he could watch where he was going more than just following the ball.
Clearly Jarren Duran has none of these skills, and watching him butcher CF after years of JBJ (and to a lesser extent Kiké last year) is a hard pill to swallow. Just one more trait (pitchers not throwing strikes, hitters putting up uncompetitive at-bats) that makes following the 2022 Red Sox a dreary business.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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The Lester deal was technically a bad deal if you go by $9 mil per WAR. 12.3 WAR for $155 million. So if that's paying off handsomely and considered a good outcome, I want no part of it.
If you don't mind, I'm going to use this post to start a new thread on the topic of WAR value, because there's an immense amount of conversation that could be had there.
 
Jul 16, 2005
78
There's a non-zero chance our 2023 OF is Verdugo-Hernandez-Pham with Duran on the bench, and some AAA buzz around Valdez et. al. Especially if some of them start hitting for the final month.

This public service message has been brought to you by The Bobby Dalbec Experience, directing cool breezes to fans on the third base line since May of 2022.
Pham's a free agent this winter. I don't expect him to return.
 
Jul 16, 2005
78
Seems to me that Jackie was DFA'ed because one of two things was about to happen:
1) (the optimistic version) some combination of Kiké and Duran are the starting/backup CF, so you give JBJ a chance to catch on somewhere or
2) (the current dumpster fire) this team tanks and Jackie isn't good enough to be a difference maker. So you see what you really have in Duran over a couple months and, again, JBJ gets a chance to catch on somewhere.

Duran seems like a nightmare but I don't think JBJ makes a difference beyond optics, and releasing him may have been to his benefit either way.
No. 2 sounds very plausible
 
Jul 16, 2005
78
I really think - hit on here plenty of times- that the key to a team is developing a consistent farm system through drafts and smart trades (and I’m putting the Vazquez one in this category) with the occasional FA signing to put a home grown team over the top- with some other supplemental signings that have a good year.
Step one is the farm… and it’s depleted. I think Bloom is working on that while also trying to at least fulfill what I read as a direction from He ry to also “compete”. I mean… look at the deadline. It was half-in and half-out and only makes sense if there’s two different philosophies being implemented. SOSH people may love a full tear down year but the more casual fans that go to games want to see a team compete year in and year out. Bloom needs more time but not sure if he’ll get it.
Agree on the importance of the farm. But it's a lot less "depleted" than it was when Bloom arrived, and it's getting better. It's hard to be patient, but that's what's required.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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KK and Kike'... One just had hip surgery and there other probably needs it. Sign them both on the cheap as LH/RH platoon and make them run the three legged race around the bases as in between inning entertainment.
I'm a little sick of the value hunting / Eric Vanification approach to roster building. Damaged players have a place on a roster from a risk perspective, but can we keep them out of the middle of the field? We've done the wild card game in the center of the diamond before and it rarely if ever works out. Now if you'll excuse me, I'll be returning to 2014 with my hopes of Grady Sizemore returning to his MVP candidate form.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Agree on the importance of the farm. But it's a lot less "depleted" than it was when Bloom arrived, and it's getting better. It's hard to be patient, but that's what's required.
How many of these guys are real prospects though? You've got help in the form of AAAA players that can fill out a bench role, but the number of actual impact players is low. The farm is certainly not depleted and has improved significantly over where Dombrowski left it, but I'm not convinced Bloom is the right guy for this job.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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How many of these guys are real prospects though? You've got help in the form of AAAA players that can fill out a bench role, but the number of actual impact players is low. The farm is certainly not depleted and has improved significantly over where Dombrowski left it, but I'm not convinced Bloom is the right guy for this job.
The farm is better but most of the talent is several levels away. A lot can happen between A ball and Boston; some of it good, a lot of it not. Also have to balance the improved farm with the weakened talent at the major league level. The system appears to be improving, sure, but it’s got to be reflected in a stronger product on the field in Boston, either by calling prospects up or converting them into major league players via trade.

A big off-season upcoming for sure, but I think a big part of the frustration down the stretch is that not only are the Sox struggling, but that the young players (particularly the positional ones) are regressing and don’t necessarily look like part of the core going forward.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm a little sick of the value hunting / Eric Vanification approach to roster building. Damaged players have a place on a roster from a risk perspective, but can we keep them out of the middle of the field? We've done the wild card game in the center of the diamond before and it rarely if ever works out. Now if you'll excuse me, I'll be returning to 2014 with my hopes of Grady Sizemore returning to his MVP candidate form.
What are the alternatives though? If you have a better CF in mind for 2023, who? Anyone who isn't a value hunt will have to be traded for, and that's assuming there are any decent CF options being shopped around.
How many of these guys are real prospects though? You've got help in the form of AAAA players that can fill out a bench role, but the number of actual impact players is low. The farm is certainly not depleted and has improved significantly over where Dombrowski left it, but I'm not convinced Bloom is the right guy for this job.
According to BP (I think it was BP), 63 are "real" prospects. In 2019, 33 were "real" prospects."

As far as potential impact players in the system, quite a few. How many turn into actual impact players is another matter.
Mayer, Casas, Bleis, Bello and Perales are potential "stars." Not all of these players have the same chance (see Perales, Bleis), but their ceiling is limitless.
Yorke and Rafaela are potential every day players. Yorke has lost a lot of shine this year but Rafaela has had a breakout season and should be starting 2023 in AAA.
Walter and Mata could be impact guys out of the pen.
Enmanuel Valdez has a chance to be an impactful bat. There's a greater than 0% chance he sees Boston this year.

While betting on any specific player to jump from JAG prospect to top 100 type is foolish, considering the sheer volume of prospects in the farm system, it's probably more likely than not that a few do emerge. We've seen in the last few years with Ceddanne Rafaela and Brandon Walter. When you have 63 prospects that publications deem "worthy of rating" that's a lot of chance at improvement. And if a Nick Yorke does falter, a Rafaela is there to replace him.

Blaze Jordan is now ranked 18th on Sox Prospects. I know all the concerns but the fact he's 18th is crazy. If Jordan handles the velocity concerns, it's not hard to envision him as an every day 1b providing plus offense.
Brainer Bonaci is ranked 27th. He just turned 20 years old and is putting up a .265/.401/.377 line with 73bb/72k in 392 PA. 18.6% BB%. 18.4%K%. Great baseball instincts, average ish defender. Walking just as much as he strikes out at an age appropriate level is always a huge glowing endorsement of future success. He has average raw power that projects to below average power in game. While it's not super likely, any bump in power would make him an every day regular. But again, he just turned 20 and has average raw power. While not super likely, also not impossible.

The Red Sox have endless guys like this. Guys who are MLB quality players minus one glaring hole that holds them back One of the players they acquired from SD is a small bump in power away from projecting to an every day CF (or heavy side of the platoon, anyway) in Corey Rosier. If Wilyer Abreu can learn to make better contact with his new swing, he's an every day player.

edit: They have some Max Ferguson types in the 63 too. Guys who have many holes (contact, power) in their games but have some really strong strengths (drawing a walk, base running). I don't care for those guys so much because a lot has to go right. For Rosier to develop 10-15 HR power requires one thing to go right.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The farm is better but most of the talent is several levels away. A lot can happen between A ball and Boston; some of it good, a lot of it not. Also have to balance the improved farm with the weakened talent at the major league level. The system appears to be improving, sure, but it’s got to be reflected in a stronger product on the field in Boston, either by calling prospects up or converting them into major league players via trade.

A big off-season upcoming for sure, but I think a big part of the frustration down the stretch is that not only are the Sox struggling, but that the young players (particularly the positional ones) are regressing and don’t necessarily look like part of the core going forward.
Agreed with all this... but other than Casas, (obviously hasn't been called up yet) for guys that are "close"....how many of the position players that have been called up have REALISTICALLY been expected to be significant contributors?
Duran and Downs were the only two that were close. For Duran, I never really saw any overwhelming support for him even when he was looking great. Lots of questions about his defense and if his offense would translate. And if it did.. .would it be good enough to qualify for a corner OF spot? LF in Fenway?
For Downs, he seemed like he could translate to a higher ceiling but adjustments WAY down were made after about mid season '21.
But the pitching has genuinely been great. I mean... maybe Winky isn't a top tier starter, but he's looking like a dependable 4/5 at minimum cost with some possible great stretches. Crawford has clearly exceeded all expectations and looks like a possible mid rotation guy. Seabold didn't have results but his stuff is great and he strikes people out-swinging and looking. Out of those 3 I actually still think Seabold has the higher ceiling. Bello was called up too soon, obviously.... but he's going to be genuinely good.
The pitching is there. Ready to contribute in '23 from start to finish. The positional players... '24 before they start to have an impact. Maybe Casas and that's it before then.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The pitching is there. Ready to contribute in '23 from start to finish. The positional players... '24 before they start to have an impact. Maybe Casas and that's it before then.
Rafaela could see time in 2023. I'd have to imagine he's starting 2023 in AAA and if he gets off to a good start, could earn a promotion. Given that he can play every position, getting him at bats shouldn't be a concern either.

Enmanuel Valdez should see some playing time in 2023 as well. He's just as "close" as Casas, if not closer. Things would have to go very wrong for him not to see time in 2023.

Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez will also see time in 2023 if they are still on the team.


edit: Not sure what you mean be realistic contributors but I think Valdez and one of Wong/Hernandez will get a bit of burn. Wilyer Abreu is in the same category as Rafaela but less likely. He'll be starting next year in AAA too.
 
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nvalvo

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And if a Nick Yorke does falter, a Rafaela is there to replace him.
You've been killing it, CC. This is another great post.

I think you're absolutely right that having a broad, deep system with a ton of 40 and 35+ F-type prospects, as we do, not only provides us with a pipeline of relief arms and utility players, but also each of those guys has a small chance to catch fire, and if you get enough of those small chances, you'll hit on a few. I just found a post-draft report card for the Sox 2011 draft, and it was absolutely glowing! It gushed about Barnes, Swihart, Owens, Bradley, Williams Jerez and Noe Ramirez. Unmentioned: Mookie Betts, an athletic but undersized SS who couldn't throw and was too small to hit for power... until he one by one addressed each of his shortcomings and became easily the best player of the group.

I'm actually not super worried about Yorke, between the injuries, the lowish BABIP, the reasonable K rate... I think he just needs to get all the way healthy and then the production will return. Foot injuries are tough on hitters. Now, if he doesn't/can't get healthy, it's just not going to work out, but you could say that about any prospect. Is there something I'm missing there?
 

nvalvo

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How many of these guys are real prospects though? You've got help in the form of AAAA players that can fill out a bench role, but the number of actual impact players is low. The farm is certainly not depleted and has improved significantly over where Dombrowski left it, but I'm not convinced Bloom is the right guy for this job.
Are they really all that low? Compared to who?

Looking at FG, there are farm systems with more impact prospects (say 55 and up) than we have, but not a ton. Baltimore has 4, we have 2 and a few others (PIT, NYM, TEX, WAS, ARI) are tied with us at 2. If you broaden it out to 50 and up, we get passed by some of those clubs and a few more (CHI, CLE, TBR, STL), but there's a reason the FG methodology ranks us in the top 10, and it's not only that we have an absolute ton of 35 and 40 type guys. And, it's worth pointing out that most of the teams ahead of us have either been terrible for several years (TEX, PIT, ARI) or recently traded a star player or two for a considerable prospect haul (WAS, but also CHI and CIN and even TBR).

We're pretty rare for being the original signing team for our top-five prospects. CLE, BAL, and ARI also meet that test among Fangraphs top-ten systems, and well, Baltimore and Arizona are drafting pretty high more often than we are. Cleveland meets that test only because they've now graduated everybody they got for Lindor — which means they've been drafting and developing amazingly well during a period in which they've typically been competitive.