Jaylen Brown re-signs for 4 years/$115 million

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TripleOT

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One thing JB has added to his game is the drive to within 3-10 feet of the rim, elevate, and teardrop in a shot. As a distance that most NBA players struggle mightily, he's 9-16 so far, 56%, with none of his makes assisted. Brown is also 70% at the rim. Overall, he's 14-27 on non-layup twos, which is excellent in today's NBA. Once the threeball starts dropping again, look out.
 

Sprowl

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Jaylen still relies too much on his fallaway jumper for a go-to move. It would be a better shot if he didn't fall away so much. With his hops, he will already be looking over his defender if he keeps it vertical. The biggest improvement in his offensive repertoire this year has been in his left-handed finish off the left-handed dribble. None of his defenders seem able to anticipate that move. The Book of Jaylen represents him as a right-handed-dominant player, but with a young, skilled, intelligent player evolving rapidly, the Book is a lagging indicator.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Jaylen still relies too much on his fallaway jumper for a go-to move. It would be a better shot if he didn't fall away so much. With his hops, he will already be looking over his defender if he keeps it vertical. The biggest improvement in his offensive repertoire this year has been in his left-handed finish off the left-handed dribble. None of his defenders seem able to anticipate that move. The Book of Jaylen represents him as a right-handed-dominant player, but with a young, skilled, intelligent player evolving rapidly, the Book is a lagging indicator.
I would also add that, even apart from specific moves, he's far more in control when he drives, and he uses changes of speed and direction a lot more instead of just going straight to the basket as fast as he can. It's really rare for a defender to get position on him and take a charge, in part because his drives are far less predictable now. When Jaylen gets an offensive foul, it's usually for something he does (eg, hooking or shoving the defender) as opposed to his defender getting position and taking the charge.
 

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TripleOT

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Based on the NBA.com shot chart tracking, Jaylen has only taken 6 shots this season that are classified as fadeaway--he's hit 4 of them. You can take a look at all of them here:
https://stats.nba.com/events/?flag=3&CFID=33&CFPARAMS=2019-20&PlayerID=1627759&ContextMeasure=FGA&Season=2019-20&section=player&sct=hex
And those fadeways are sweet as hell. He takes them with supreme confidence. And they are mostly in the paint fadeaways, which could end up being a go to alternative to his drives to the rim when other defenders get involved in stopping the drive.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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And those fadeways are sweet as hell. He takes them with supreme confidence. And they are mostly in the paint fadeaways, which could end up being a go to alternative to his drives to the rim when other defenders get involved in stopping the drive.
These shots were one of his upgrades from last year, when he started to learn not only that he could get to advantageous spots on the floor whenever he wanted, but also how to actually go about it. Guy has built an arsenal piece by piece.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Very interesting read in the Athletic about Jaylen, how he struggled with self doubt last year, and how he’s changed his mindset this year:
If you see Brown make one type of play regularly now, he has been honing that craft repeatedly behind the scenes. The idea, he says, is to prepare enough that he does as little thinking as possible while on the court.

Brown has not always been able to play with a free mind. He believes he can overthink the game at times, but his issues last season extended beyond that tendency. Though he hasn’t talked about it much publicly, the Celtics’ bumpy journey cut him up, forcing him to experience anxiety unlike any he had ever encountered around the basketball court. As he lost his starting job and both he and his team failed to live up to high preseason expectations, Brown says his head filled with doubt, questions and disbelief.

Though some of the feelings were foreign to him, he could recognize them as a threat to his well-being.

“That kills more dreams, careers, on and off the court, basketball-related and just (in) regular life,” Brown says. “As soon as you start not believing in yourself, it’s over. So I had to quiet that voice that was in the back of my head. Everybody has it. It’s not something that, like, just Jaylen has been through it. I think everybody on this planet probably has that voice in the back of their head telling them to stop or to quit or not to keep going. And that voice had been louder last year than it had ever been. So I had to make sure to quiet that fucking voice because it was pissing me off.”
https://theathletic.com/1372228/2019/11/13/letting-go-of-the-anxiety-how-jaylen-brown-learned-to-quiet-the-voice-inside/
 

benhogan

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The haters will return from the woodwork when he has one bad game. Bank on it.
Ha. Does anyone really hate on JB here? It seemed the board's support for the contract was pretty universal.

The vast majority of us were getting on Brad to play him more minutes after New Years' last season.

Wade/lovegtm are just having fun tweaking MP and looking for his JB mea culpa... those are hard to come by in these parts.
 
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BaseballJones

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His game has really matured. So good to see.

31.3 min, 19.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 53.0% fg, 77.4% ft, 2.2 assists

His per 36 minute rates have gone up considerably from last year:

2018-19: 46.5% fg, 65.8% ft, 18.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists
2019-20: 53.0% fg, 77.4% ft, 22.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists

He's been all-star caliber so far this year. Yes, just six games played, but still. You can just SEE the improvement, and the stats reflect it.
 

lovegtm

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Ha. Does anyone really hate on JB here? It seemed the board's support for the contract was pretty universal.

The vast majority of us were getting on Brad to play him more minutes after New Years' last season.

Wade/lovegtm are working hard for that MP mea culpa... those are hard to come by in these parts.
Yeah, support for the contract was pretty universal. I’m not even hating on MP, it’s just funny to have a take get that bad within one week.

I did not think JB would make this big a jump this fast. Now I’m just curious what else he can do—playmaking seems to be slowly ticking up (eye test).
 

benhogan

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Yeah, support for the contract was pretty universal. I’m not even hating on MP, it’s just funny to have a take get that bad within one week.

I did not think JB would make this big a jump this fast. Now I’m just curious what else he can do—playmaking seems to be slowly ticking up (eye test).
the handle has improved beyond anything I thought possible and the FT shooting touch has been soft on the rim. It's been very impressive. I certainly didn't see it coming this quickly, but to the eye test, it's here.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Ha. Does anyone really hate on JB here? It seemed the board's support for the contract was pretty universal.

The vast majority of us were getting on Brad to play him more minutes after New Years' last season.

Wade/lovegtm are just having fun tweaking MP and looking for his JB mea culpa... those are hard to come by in these parts.
Some of us preferred to hold off on signing him until after this season but were ok with the signing. I don't think anyone was adamantly against it.
 

JCizzle

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mcpickl

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Yeah, support for the contract was pretty universal. I’m not even hating on MP, it’s just funny to have a take get that bad within one week.

I did not think JB would make this big a jump this fast. Now I’m just curious what else he can do—playmaking seems to be slowly ticking up (eye test).
Huh?

Is MP me?
 

lovegtm

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This is a bit crazy atm, but I'm going to stake out the ground early: Jaylen Brown has a chance to be an explosive, scoring version of Draymond (in terms of the types of lineups he can unlock). He provides the same death lineup defensive versatility in terms of having the strength to play centers for short stints, and the quickness to hang with guards. He'll also be a far superior offensive player, if he isn't already.
 

Devizier

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This is a bit crazy atm, but I'm going to stake out the ground early: Jaylen Brown has a chance to be an explosive, scoring version of Draymond (in terms of the types of lineups he can unlock). He provides the same death lineup defensive versatility in terms of having the strength to play centers for short stints, and the quickness to hang with guards. He'll also be a far superior offensive player, if he isn't already.
Watching Jaylen stifle Thomas Bryant was quite something. He really has taken major strides in all areas this year.
 

lovegtm

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Watching Jaylen stifle Thomas Bryant was quite something. He really has taken major strides in all areas this year.
Yup, those were exactly the plays I was thinking of. Bryant isn't some offensive juggernaut, but Jaylen's strength down low has gotten really impressive.
 

TripleOT

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I was at the game last night. Brown was totally in command in his offense. He missed a few easy shots and was held to two first half points, but didn't press with his team putting up big points. To start the second half, he made a concerted effort to exploit smaller switches, and did so with effortless mid--range makes and layups.

In a game where the Celtics' defense was garbage, he covered big and small well, and did a good job disrupting Washington's high pick exchange game. He's put it all together in year four.
 

Cesar Crespo

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This is a bit crazy atm, but I'm going to stake out the ground early: Jaylen Brown has a chance to be an explosive, scoring version of Draymond (in terms of the types of lineups he can unlock). He provides the same death lineup defensive versatility in terms of having the strength to play centers for short stints, and the quickness to hang with guards. He'll also be a far superior offensive player, if he isn't already.
Depends how much you value Draymond's passing but I don't think it's particularly close. Jaylen is the more complete offensive player.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Interesting Reddit post comparing JB to the other JB - Jimmy Butler - here: View: https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/dw81e9/jaylen_brown_is_on_a_familiar_path/
. I'll just post the stats that are cited and strip out the commentary:

Year 1:
  • Butler: 2.6 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.3 steals 40.5%/18.2%/76.8% in 8.5mpg.
  • Brown: 6.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.4 steals 45.4%/34.1%/68.5% in 17.2mpg
Year 2:
  • Butler: 8.6 points, 4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1 steal, 46.7%/38.1%/80.3% in 26mpg
  • Brown: 14.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1 steal, 46.5%/39.5%/64.4% in 30.7mpg
Year 3:
  • Butler: 13.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.9 steals, 39.7%/28.3%/76.9% in 38.7mpg
  • Brown: 13 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.9 steals 46.5%/34.4%/65.8% in 25.9mpg
Year 4:
  • Butler: 20 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 46.2%/37.8%/83.4% in 38.7mpg
  • Brown: 20.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.7 steals 52%/26.9%/80% in 31.9mpg (through 7 games)
 

PC Drunken Friar

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Out of curiosity, I went to look at the 2016 draft to see how Murray (this reddit user's wish) to see how that draft may have shook out. I am far from an advanced stat in the NBA, but how the hell can Brown have only .4 VORP player in his career? Jakob Poltl is 3rd at 4.4. Brown is behind such studs as Dunn, Dejounte Murray, Valentine, and Ivica Zubac.

For Win Shares, he is 8th, with 9.9. Again guys like Poltl are ahead of him (12.7)...who has put up a 5.4/4.6/.8/.9 in his career in 16 MPG.
 

lovegtm

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Out of curiosity, I went to look at the 2016 draft to see how Murray (this reddit user's wish) to see how that draft may have shook out. I am far from an advanced stat in the NBA, but how the hell can Brown have only .4 VORP player in his career? Jakob Poltl is 3rd at 4.4. Brown is behind such studs as Dunn, Dejounte Murray, Valentine, and Ivica Zubac.

For Win Shares, he is 8th, with 9.9. Again guys like Poltl are ahead of him (12.7)...who has put up a 5.4/4.6/.8/.9 in his career in 16 MPG.
It’s almost like those stats are kind of garbage.

The assumption that an acronym and decimal points make something “advanced” or “scientific” has always struck me as bizarre and cargo-cultish. (not picking on you personally, PC Drunken Friar, just a pet peeve)
 

nighthob

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Out of curiosity, I went to look at the 2016 draft to see how Murray (this reddit user's wish) to see how that draft may have shook out. I am far from an advanced stat in the NBA, but how the hell can Brown have only .4 VORP player in his career? Jakob Poltl is 3rd at 4.4. Brown is behind such studs as Dunn, Dejounte Murray, Valentine, and Ivica Zubac.

For Win Shares, he is 8th, with 9.9. Again guys like Poltl are ahead of him (12.7)...who has put up a 5.4/4.6/.8/.9 in his career in 16 MPG.
It’s because VORP is pretty stinky. And, frankly, all the black box numbers are sort of shaky.
 

shoelace

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It’s because VORP is pretty stinky. And, frankly, all the black box numbers are sort of shaky.
I believe Russell Westbrook's MVP season is the highest single season VORP total in NBA history, which seems like it indicates some flaws with the stat, and with BPM by extension.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Out of curiosity, I went to look at the 2016 draft to see how Murray (this reddit user's wish) to see how that draft may have shook out. I am far from an advanced stat in the NBA, but how the hell can Brown have only .4 VORP player in his career? Jakob Poltl is 3rd at 4.4. Brown is behind such studs as Dunn, Dejounte Murray, Valentine, and Ivica Zubac.

For Win Shares, he is 8th, with 9.9. Again guys like Poltl are ahead of him (12.7)...who has put up a 5.4/4.6/.8/.9 in his career in 16 MPG.
Someone more knowledgeable than me can chime in but I believe people in the past said it is because JB had a pretty high usage, did not generate a lot of counting stats, and was (by extension) seen as pretty inefficient. What really hurts JB in a lot of advanced metrics I believe is that he - up to this season - got relatively few assists and steals for a guy of his physical ability.
 

lexrageorge

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Out of curiosity, I went to look at the 2016 draft to see how Murray (this reddit user's wish) to see how that draft may have shook out. I am far from an advanced stat in the NBA, but how the hell can Brown have only .4 VORP player in his career? Jakob Poltl is 3rd at 4.4. Brown is behind such studs as Dunn, Dejounte Murray, Valentine, and Ivica Zubac.

For Win Shares, he is 8th, with 9.9. Again guys like Poltl are ahead of him (12.7)...who has put up a 5.4/4.6/.8/.9 in his career in 16 MPG.
Any black box method that relies on curve fitting ends up with outliers; the VORP and Win Shares are basically useless because of that.

Part of the problem is that Jaylen did get a lot of minutes in his rookie year where he really didn't contribute much on either end; his rookie season was basically used as a development tool for him. And then he was forced into a starter's role after Hayward got hurt; while he looked promising, there were plenty of duds there as well. Not unexpected for a 21 y/o.
 

mcpickl

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Yeah, it's all in good fun. I know you weren't comparing JB's style to Ariza's, but the "5th guy on a good team" take didn't age so great.
Eh, I still don't feel bad about it. I thought he was the 5th best guy on this team coming into the season, and that was on a team I expected to win somewhere in the high 40s this year, so a good-ish team at best.

In the small sample so far, he looks like he's taken a huge leap that I certainly didn't see coming.

He's been way more confident with the ball, and it's showing up everywhere. He's going to the rim more often, and finishing better and/or getting fouled(and so far making the FTs). He's slowed down enough so that he can adjust on his drives to the rim that get stopped to pull up and shoot an 8 footer, and he's been able to find open guys while he's on the move.

He's also doing a great job getting back on the defensive board, which is a huge need for this team.

I expect his shooting to level out a bit, I'd guess his % from two and line to go down, and to go up from the three point line.

Based out what we've seen so far, he's a hell of a lot more likely to approach his ceiling than I thought three weeks ago.
 

chilidawg

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Interesting Reddit post comparing JB to the other JB - Jimmy Butler - here: View: https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/dw81e9/jaylen_brown_is_on_a_familiar_path/
. I'll just post the stats that are cited and strip out the commentary:

Year 1:
  • Butler: 2.6 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.3 steals 40.5%/18.2%/76.8% in 8.5mpg.
  • Brown: 6.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.4 steals 45.4%/34.1%/68.5% in 17.2mpg
Year 2:
  • Butler: 8.6 points, 4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1 steal, 46.7%/38.1%/80.3% in 26mpg
  • Brown: 14.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1 steal, 46.5%/39.5%/64.4% in 30.7mpg
Year 3:
  • Butler: 13.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.9 steals, 39.7%/28.3%/76.9% in 38.7mpg
  • Brown: 13 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.9 steals 46.5%/34.4%/65.8% in 25.9mpg
Year 4:
  • Butler: 20 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 46.2%/37.8%/83.4% in 38.7mpg
  • Brown: 20.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.7 steals 52%/26.9%/80% in 31.9mpg (through 7 games)
The Butler comp has always struck me as a good one. Butler has turned into an excellent playmaker, I doubt Jalen will get there, but everything else looks fair. The Draymond Green one seems far fetched.
 

lovegtm

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By far Brown's worst game of the year last night. It looked like he was a toddler touching a basketball for the first time.

Something was weird about the game--the starters came out with energy for a couple minutes, then things got bad. Brad subbed in the Tatum/Kanter/Wannamaker/Semi/Carsen lineup late in the first, and stuck with it for 7-8 minutes straight. My best guess is that he knew or suspected that the starters had been out late and wanted to send a message without showing them up.

(Cue comments about how lovegtm is the first person to ever notice the effects of NBA noon tip times).
 

TripleOT

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Brown is 9-15 the past three games from three, to get his 3% up to 39%, after starting the year 7-23. He was out of sync the last two games, missing shot he has made consistently this season. He only got 4 FTs, the past three games, after earning 21 FTs the previous three games. On the bright side, after struggling offensively the first half in Phoenix, he managed to find some points in the second half without forcing things. He has hit the glass hard this trip, going for 8, 8, and 9 rebounds.

I'm looking for a big game from JB in LA tonight.
 

lovegtm

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Brown is 9-15 the past three games from three, to get his 3% up to 39%, after starting the year 7-23. He was out of sync the last two games, missing shot he has made consistently this season. He only got 4 FTs, the past three games, after earning 21 FTs the previous three games. On the bright side, after struggling offensively the first half in Phoenix, he managed to find some points in the second half without forcing things. He has hit the glass hard this trip, going for 8, 8, and 9 rebounds.

I'm looking for a big game from JB in LA tonight.
Yeah there will be ups and downs, but his handle, strength, and ability to defend aren’t going anywhere.

I’m also impressed with his jumpshot touch overall—he’s made it from a weakness into a strength.
 

benhogan

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Brown is 9-15 the past three games from three, to get his 3% up to 39%, after starting the year 7-23. He was out of sync the last two games, missing shot he has made consistently this season. He only got 4 FTs, the past three games, after earning 21 FTs the previous three games. On the bright side, after struggling offensively the first half in Phoenix, he managed to find some points in the second half without forcing things. He has hit the glass hard this trip, going for 8, 8, and 9 rebounds.

I'm looking for a big game from JB in LA tonight.
He hasn't looked great the last few games, but if this is BAD Jaylen's floor he has seriously jumped this year. If he is healthy the rest of this season he's making the All-Star team.

ALSO looking forward to a big game from JB tonight
 

DourDoerr

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It's been exciting to see this bump up in JB's play. In last night's game, 2 plays stood out for me. With Butler on him above the FT line, Brown juked right, crossed over to his left - which exposed Butler - and a slight step back to his left to nail a 2. The second play he was hemmed in the left corner behind the 3pt line with Winslow tight on him. With the clock winding down, Brown jumps straight up and hits the 3-pointer. Winslow had defended the play well, cutting off Brown's options and leaving him with a very tough shot. If you watch the replay, Winslow turns to watch the shot and visibly crumples slightly when the ball swishes through the net. The confidence and execution he's exhibiting is very encouraging.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Great video. I like at the end where KOC is running through all the player Celtics fans talk about before Brown (Tatum, Hayward, Kemba) and he drops in "... and how Tacko Fall is better than Bill Russell..."
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Thus far, he is at a career high 49.4% from the field, 38.2% (on a career high ~5.2 3PA/game) and a career high FT% of 71.8% and he is also at a career high in FTA. That said, his net differential is -5 and his on/off numbers aren't that impressive.

I wouldn't read too much into the advanced data as I think that there are a bunch of variables at play including his increased usage, Stevens evolving line-ups including injuries and maybe even Brown himself recognizing that he can do more these days and trying new things as a result.

Its probably safe to say that anyone worried about his contract can rest a bit easier. He appears to be on his way to earning that money.
 

NomarsFool

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I feel like they don't get him involved enough in the offense sometimes. You see him just standing in the corner, and if they don't get him the ball - he doesn't touch it. He's been nailing those 3PA this year, which is great. Maybe he needs to work on his off-ball movement - I don't know. I feel like he's a great scorer, and would like to see just a few less shots from Kemba and Tatum go to Brown to balance it out a bit.
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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I feel like they don't get him involved enough in the offense sometimes. You see him just standing in the corner, and if they don't get him the ball - he doesn't touch it. He's been nailing those 3PA this year, which is great. Maybe he needs to work on his off-ball movement - I don't know. I feel like he's a great scorer, and would like to see just a few less shots from Kemba and Tatum go to Brown to balance it out a bit.
Agreed, (I) off-ball movement + (ii) playmaking for others (the latter of which he's already doing a bit more of) are the next phases of his offensive development. Other than some well-timed back-cuts, he's never been the kind of guy who makes his defender chase him all over the court before he touches the ball - he just kind of shuffles down to his spot and waits for a pass.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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Agreed, (I) off-ball movement + (ii) playmaking for others (the latter of which he's already doing a bit more of) are the next phases of his offensive development. Other than some well-timed back-cuts, he's never been the kind of guy who makes his defender chase him all over the court before he touches the ball - he just kind of shuffles down to his spot and waits for a pass.
That may be a function of Brad's offense, partially. His teams seems to cut less than average in general.
 

benhogan

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I feel like they don't get him involved enough in the offense sometimes. You see him just standing in the corner, and if they don't get him the ball - he doesn't touch it. He's been nailing those 3PA this year, which is great. Maybe he needs to work on his off-ball movement - I don't know. I feel like he's a great scorer, and would like to see just a few less shots from Kemba and Tatum go to Brown to balance it out a bit.
agreed, more Jaylen Brown please!
and JB has scored 31 and 28pts over the last 2 games:drunk:

The handle, FTs, asst/to have all seen the needed improvement. Also, his pump fakes at the rim and play through contact is a direct reflection on his increased strength.
 

lovegtm

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We now have over 800 attempts of Jaylen Brown being a 37% 3PT shooter in the NBA, on decent volume and not just cherry-picking open looks.
 

TripleOT

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Not many players can credibly defend four positions. JB is at a minimum holding his own defensively this season as he has to guard PFs in the Kemba, Smart, Tatum, Brown, center line up. Last night, he held Paul Millsap to five points in 20 minutes, 2-6, with two TOs, while torturing the Nugs at the other end for 21 points, using his quickness to go 5-6 inside the paint, and outside skills to bang three threeballs in seven tries, which is exactly what a quicker undersized quasi-4 should be doing.
 
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