Jaylen Brown, Year 7

DGreenwood

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It’s low impact, so I’m guessing it lets a basketball player work on explosive jumping without the impact of landing from those jumps. It seems like a good way to rest joints in the off-season while building/maintaining strength.
 

luckiestman

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Does aquatic training like that accomplish anything you don't get from normal training or does it just look cool?
Anything that is not sport specific is more like GPP (general physical preparedness) so is this better? Probably not. Is it worse? Probably not.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Yeah less wear and tear but great cardio. Not sure how this helps his handles, though.
It would help my (love) handles if I worked out like this. To be fair, based on the Grant Williams interview last week he said Brad and Ime just told the team flat out to not pick up a basketball for 3-4 weeks after the Finals. The strategy seems to be #1 to go on vacation and rest, #2 get into your strength training, and finally #3 late this summer into fall get into their basketball training.

A not insignificant part of this approach is to just "forget" the basketball being played at the end of the season. In playoff basketball everybody is doing whatever it takes to win, even if it is usually a weakness for them or they need to go into Kobe mode for some selfishness that wouldn't fly normally. While Jaylen's handles weren't good, in the regular season this would be exploited into 2-3 steals rather than 8-10 TOs at the end of the postseason through a combination of the opposition's singular focus and the aforementioned hero ball you sometimes need in the playoffs.

Cutting this off and just starting over for the 2022-23 season to relearn the fundamentals and build confidence seems like a wise play. Nevermind the fact that JB may have much fewer driving attempts this season anyway, due to the Brogdon acquisition and how likely the rotations will result in him playing at the 3 than the 2.
 

pjheff

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Nevermind the fact that JB may have much fewer driving attempts this season anyway, due to the Brogdon acquisition and how likely the rotations will result in him playing at the 3 than the 2.
Is there such a distinction between the “2” and the “3” in Ime’s system that would meaningfully impact the driving attempts of a player like Jaylen Brown?
 
Jan 22, 2006
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Back when I was swimming at a high level, there was a belief that intense cardio at 8ft of depth and below would lead to some benefits. I think it was a similar principle as working out at high altitudes developing more hemoglobin which would then lead to better cardio at sea levels?

I think its also good resistance training while being gentle on the joints.
 

sezwho

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Back when I was swimming at a high level, there was a belief that intense cardio at 8ft of depth and below would lead to some benefits. I think it was a similar principle as working out at high altitudes developing more hemoglobin which would then lead to better cardio at sea levels?

I think its also good resistance training while being gentle on the joints.
I’ve felt swimming may act as a form of massage even while I’m doing it. Not sure it’s actually breaking up fascia, but at least flushing muscles on surface if not deeper. When I used to swim and kickbox more (I’m no expert at either) I felt like the bruises & bumps were a little less present after a pool workout. Maybe just me.
 

RorschachsMask

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Jaylen has and will clean up basically all of his physical weaknesses, it’s the reading the game aspect that I worry* will always keep him from jumping from very good to elite.

*Not really worry, as he’s proven to be at least a guy whose in the conversation for an all all star spot every season.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Jaylen has and will clean up basically all of his physical weaknesses, it’s the reading the game aspect that I worry* will always keep him from jumping from very good to elite.

*Not really worry, as he’s proven to be at least a guy whose in the conversation for an all all star spot every season.
With Tatum's development, that's not even that problematic. His handle is the big thing.
 

RorschachsMask

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With Tatum's development, that's not even that problematic. His handle is the big thing.
Yeah that’s why I added that disclaimer. I think he will clean the handles up some, but having Brogdon will help there just as much. I’d expect to see Jaylen off ball a fair amount more next season, especially with Brogdon being one of the most aggressive drivers in the league.

Brogdon will be a staple of lineups with Jaylen any time Tatum sits.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Is there such a distinction between the “2” and the “3” in Ime’s system that would meaningfully impact the driving attempts of a player like Jaylen Brown?
Anecdotal and I didn't chart the possessions or anything, but seem to recall when Smart and White were on the floor concurrently with Jaylen he had so many more catch and shoot opportunities.
 

Jimbodandy

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Jaylen had a 11.6% turnover percentage to Jayson's 10.9% last year. I'd be more interested in getting his assist rate of 17.9% closer to Jayson's 21.1% than the turnover problem.

Both saw a serious spike in turnover percentage in the playoffs, which is no bueno. Having a Brogdon around will definitely help with that.
 

Zososoxfan

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I did a fair amount of water-based rehab and it's definitely easier on the joints, and the massage talk above is accurate to an extent. Water pressure acts as a compression force on the body and helps heal inflammation. What he's doing is good stuff and looks badass, certainly way cooler than my foam barbells you see in use by the elderly in the aqua-aerobics classes on beach vacations. TBH, I don't think I could do that in your typical 8 foot pool with the foam weights.
 

LoLsapien

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Not sure if this is the thread for it, but I was thinking about player comps for jaylen, whether there's reason to think that he's peaked, and how to project that peak. I'm a complete neophyte when it comes to bball and bball stats, but I was a bit curious about a couple DARKO "similarity" charts:
54132
By DARKO DPM, jaylen shows no indications that his skills are ready to plateau, and he's exceeded all his comps. But DARKO Box DPM shows a different picture:
54133
Now, I can't find an explanation for how Box DPM differs from DPM, and this second chart looks kind of weird with the data points that occur after reaching the end of Jaylen's curve. Nonetheless, if folks have particular tools you like for creating player comps, particularly in the context of guessing where jaylen might be heading in the next couple year, please let me know!

Btw, looking at some of these player comps, I'm starting to understand on a basic level the limitation of these all-in-one stats (DeMarcus cousins? Sure!)
 

benhogan

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Keith Smart does a good job explaining Brown's future contract options here.
https://www.spotrac.com/research/nba/next-contract-series-jaylen-brown-1572/

Here is the summary at the end:

Whether he’s traded or not, it makes little to no sense for Jaylen Brown to sign a Veteran Extension either this season or next. Here’s what Brown would give up in each scenario:

  • Veteran Extension vs 35% Designated Veteran Extension or Contract with Boston: $125 million-plus
  • Veteran Extension vs 30% max re-signing with Boston (or re-signing): $83.6 million-plus
  • Veteran Extension vs 30% max signing with another team: $19.3 million-plus
There is little chance Brown would leave that much money, and flexibility, on the table to ink a standard Veteran Extension in the next year or two. Nor should that be the expectation of him.

Because Brown signed for less than the max in his original deal, and the cap is continuing to rise, he’s highly likely to forgo signing anything this offseason. Next offseason might be a different story.

Assuming Brown remains with the Celtics, both sides could agree to a Designated Veteran Extension in the summer of 2023, if he qualifies that season. It’s not a reach, as Brown is coming off a season where he averaged 23.6 points and 6.1 rebounds per game in the regular season prior to a very productive run to the 2022 NBA Finals.

If Brown doesn’t qualify for a Designated Veteran Extension in 2023, then he’ll be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2024. He may qualify for the Designated Veteran Contract by virtue of a big 2023-24 season. If not, he’ll then look to cash in with the Celtics on a standard 30% max deal, or he could give up some money and move to a new team.

This offseason isn’t the time for Boston fans to worry about Jaylen Brown not extending. It simply doesn’t make any financial sense for a player of his ability. But if Brown makes All-NBA (or wins MVP or DPOY) in 2023 and we’re still waiting on an extension a year from now, it’s fair to get a little nervous if you’re a Celtics fan. That would mean Brown is passing on the largest contract he can possibly get.

If Brown is eligible and passes on signing a Designated Veteran Extension in 2023, it probably makes sense for Boston to consider trading Brown before he could walk for nothing in the summer of 2024. At that point, the confidence level he wants to remain with the Celtics would have to be fairly low, as no one passes up the so-called “supermax extension” when it’s offered.
 

mcpickl

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I think Keiths' numbers are a bit off, he started Jaylens' salary a bit too high in an extension.

This is what I think he'd be leaving on the table if he signed a 2+1 extension with Boston before this season.(going off of Keiths 143M cap projection for 24/25)

If he extends now, he'd make 34.2M in 24/25 and 37M in 25/26, with his option for 39.8M in 26/27. He'd also have 8.3M in incentives in the first two seasons, around 5.5M that he can reasonably make.

If he wait til FA, he'd make 42.9M in 24/25 and 46.3M in 25/26.

So to lock in 111M in security early, he'd be leaving 18M guaranteed over the first two years, but would probably make 5.5M of that up in incentives.

So leaving somewhere between 12.5M to 18M on the table to lock in 111M.

One big benefit to signing a 2+1 now is, the second year of that extension would be his tenth year in the NBA. Opting out then would make him eligible to sign a 35% max, instead of a 30% max in 24/25 if he doesn't extend, and would come after the new TV deal kicks in. He'd probably make up most of the difference of the money he left on the table in the 26/27 season alone. (That's assuming he would sign a 3+1 or 4+1 max in 24/25 if he doesn't extend now)

I thought before this playoff run, that him signing an extension now was at least a decent possibility. I think making the finals probably knocked that way down. Just being in that high profile spot, probably gives him a small step up in being in voters minds for all-NBA next season. If he has a similar season next year as he did this year, maybe he gets a vote in a close race with a Donovan Mitchell or Paul George that he wouldn't have if they lost to Milwaukee. It's probably enough for him to gamble on trying to make all-NBA and be eligible for an early motherlode from Boston.

I'd guess now the only way he extends before this season is if he really wants to be here, and the Celtics said to him that if he wouldn't extend that they'd be afraid he was going to walk and were going to trade him now. I'd consider that a very unlikely scenario.
 

benhogan

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Brown super-max extension next summer (if he makes All-NBA) would look something like this:

Brown would boost what would start as an approximately five-year, $248.8 million extension into a $290.3 million mega-deal, over $100 million more than he could sign for with a new team in free agency. It’s a serious advantage the Celtics would benefit from if he positions himself to earn all that he can. He already has to some degree, with 2022 the most consistently involved he’s ever been in the offense — averaging 24.2 points on 18.8 shots each night after his injury. His 60.2 touches per game were up from 56.9 the year before and 49.0 in 2020.

https://www.celticsblog.com/2022/8/24/23313059/what-if-jaylen-brown-becomes-an-all-nba-player-kevin-durant-trade-jayson-tatum-boston-celtics


the Game 2 video against the Nets is nice offseason fodder
 

chilidawg

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Brown super-max extension next summer (if he makes All-NBA) would look something like this:

Brown would boost what would start as an approximately five-year, $248.8 million extension into a $290.3 million mega-deal, over $100 million more than he could sign for with a new team in free agency. It’s a serious advantage the Celtics would benefit from if he positions himself to earn all that he can. He already has to some degree, with 2022 the most consistently involved he’s ever been in the offense — averaging 24.2 points on 18.8 shots each night after his injury. His 60.2 touches per game were up from 56.9 the year before and 49.0 in 2020.

https://www.celticsblog.com/2022/8/24/23313059/what-if-jaylen-brown-becomes-an-all-nba-player-kevin-durant-trade-jayson-tatum-boston-celtics


the Game 2 video against the Nets is nice offseason fodder
That's a great article. I liked this from Ime:

“All-around, the things he does, the versatility he gives us on the defensive end is what it is, I think that trickles down with Marcus and our big wings,” Ime Udoka said. “He’s been solid there and he’s one of the guys who has probably had to restructure what he did as a defender. He’s usually a guy that locks in on an assignment on-ball, off-ball and kind of takes that guy out where we’re asking for more communication and he’s one of the guys that has improved throughout the season as far as that. Offensively ... his playmaking ability and his scoring for himself. I think (Game 3 of the Finals) was one of his best games of getting guys organized into spots he wanted, get our spacing correct and then attacking from there ... one, two dribbles and finding guys all over the court. That growth, as well as Jayson, was a big point of emphasis coming into the season.”

Add the Darko chart and the highlights against the Nets and that filled my basketball needs for the day.
 

benhogan

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That's a great article. I liked this from Ime:

“All-around, the things he does, the versatility he gives us on the defensive end is what it is, I think that trickles down with Marcus and our big wings,” Ime Udoka said. “He’s been solid there and he’s one of the guys who has probably had to restructure what he did as a defender. He’s usually a guy that locks in on an assignment on-ball, off-ball and kind of takes that guy out where we’re asking for more communication and he’s one of the guys that has improved throughout the season as far as that. Offensively ... his playmaking ability and his scoring for himself. I think (Game 3 of the Finals) was one of his best games of getting guys organized into spots he wanted, get our spacing correct and then attacking from there ... one, two dribbles and finding guys all over the court. That growth, as well as Jayson, was a big point of emphasis coming into the season.”

Add the Darko chart and the highlights against the Nets and that filled my basketball needs for the day.
IME's description of JB's defense was spot on. Very clever and subtle without being too critical.