Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top

DJnVa

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So is he back to being a no brainer top 10 player and fringe top 5? Or does he still have too many no shows?
How many "no shows" do other players have? Does Tatum actually have appreciably more or do we just watch all his games so we notice them?
 

jezza1918

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How many "no shows" do other players have? Does Tatum actually have appreciably more or do we just watch all his games so we notice them?
It does look like he has a few additional over the last handful of years than guys like Jokic or Embiid. Of course, some of that is due to the Celtics consistently playing deeper into the playoffs than the Sixers or Nuggets.
 

Cesar Crespo

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How many "no shows" do other players have? Does Tatum actually have appreciably more or do we just watch all his games so we notice them?
Luka doesn't have any, Butler had 1.5 (didn't play 2nd half). Giannis probably had 0 (he had some clunkers but not "no shows").

I think what's more noticeable about Tatum is when other players no show, they still somehow finish with 18-20 points. Tatum has finished with 10 twice. Of course, Butler just put up back to back games of less than 10 points (granted he missed a half in one).
 

Kliq

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Can Embiid make a Conference Finals? I've grown to like Joel more than I did, and he has gotten some bad luck, but hard to say he is better than Tatum when Tatum has consistently risen to the occasion in the playoffs and Embiid basically never has.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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How many "no shows" do other players have? Does Tatum actually have appreciably more or do we just watch all his games so we notice them?
In the last two years, I count:

Jokic (1)- 7-18 16/9/1
Embiid (1) 4-20 17/21/4 (But not sure if this counts? That is dominance on the boards)
Curry- (2) 5-13 16/3/4 and 4-10 14/3/4
Giannis (0)
Durant (1) 6-11 16/8/8 (only because he needs to take more than 11 shots in 46 minutes)
LeBron (1) 4-11 10/6/7 (I went back 3 for this one)
Harden (4)
Luka (0)

Tatum (3) 3-12 9/4/1, 4-19 10/1/3 and 3-14 10/6/4
 

jezza1918

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In the last two years, I count:

Jokic (1)- 7-18 16/9/1
Embiid (1) 4-20 17/21/4 (But not sure if this counts? That is dominance on the boards)
Curry- (2) 5-13 16/3/4 and 4-10 14/3/4
Giannis (0)
Durant (1) 6-11 16/8/8 (only because he needs to take more than 11 shots in 46 minutes)
LeBron (1) 4-11 10/6/7 (I went back 3 for this one)
Harden (4)
Luka (0)

Tatum (3) 3-12 9/4/1, 4-19 10/1/3 and 3-14 10/6/4
I think Luka's game 1 against GSW last week counts...6-18 (3-10 from 3), got to the line 8 times but missed 3 of those as well. 7 D-boards (no O-boards), 4 assists and 7 turnovers.
 

Rustjive

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Luka doesn't have any, Butler had 1.5 (didn't play 2nd half). Giannis probably had 0 (he had some clunkers but not "no shows").

I think what's more noticeable about Tatum is when other players no show, they still somehow finish with 18-20 points. Tatum has finished with 10 twice. Of course, Butler just put up back to back games of less than 10 points (granted he missed a half in one).
Butler no showed the entire playoffs last year ('stupidly locked in') against the Bucks though.
 

Auger34

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So is he back to being a no brainer top 10 player and fringe top 5? Or does he still have too many no shows?

Looking at his game log, I'd say he's had 2 games where he was a "no show" this playoffs. People can argue what a "no show" is. 2 out of 15 doesn't seem like a lot to me. Obviously we'd rather it be 0 or 1, but it's not like he disappears as a reoccurring act. And whenever he does lay a dud, he responds in a big way the following game.

I don't know if he's in my top 5. He might be but I'd have to put some thought into it. He's definitely in my top 10 and I don't have to do any thinking.
I think I have him at 5 but he’s unequivocally a top 10 player. Anyone that says otherwise needs to get their head examined.

To be fair to the previous “backlash”, I think that was from people who were saying that he had too many “no shows” to absolutely be a top 5 player.

In the end, it’s all just talking points and really doesn’t matter that much
 

m0ckduck

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Luka doesn't have any, Butler had 1.5 (didn't play 2nd half). Giannis probably had 0 (he had some clunkers but not "no shows").

I think what's more noticeable about Tatum is when other players no show, they still somehow finish with 18-20 points. Tatum has finished with 10 twice.
This is right.
I think Luka's game 1 against GSW last week counts...6-18 (3-10 from 3), got to the line 8 times but missed 3 of those as well. 7 D-boards (no O-boards), 4 assists and 7 turnovers.
It was bad. But if you squint, he still put up 20-7-4 with a b-ref game score of 7.1.

Tatum’s worst two game scores are 0.7 and -1.2, both of which were narrow losses. He needs to figure out a way not to stink out loud under these circumstances.

edit: for context, again, I have him #6 overall.This is not to trash him, but to say that the last step is cutting down on the degree of variance.
 

Spelunker

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Luka doesn't have any, Butler had 1.5 (didn't play 2nd half). Giannis probably had 0 (he had some clunkers but not "no shows").

I think what's more noticeable about Tatum is when other players no show, they still somehow finish with 18-20 points. Tatum has finished with 10 twice. Of course, Butler just put up back to back games of less than 10 points (granted he missed a half in one).
Luka doesn't have any on the offensive side of the ball.

For me these playoffs have crystalized Tatum being a better overall player: the Warriors are hunting the hell out of him, and abusing him on that side of the ball. The Suns did the same (although it wasn't enough). Can you imagine a team trying to hunt Tatum?

Luka has a small-to-decent edge over Tatum on O, but there's a wide gulf between the two on defense that more than makes up for it.
 

jezza1918

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This is right.

It was bad. But if you squint, he still put up 20-7-4 with a b-ref game score of 7.1.

Tatum’s worst two game scores are 0.7 and -1.2, both of which were narrow losses. He needs to figure out a way not to stink out loud under these circumstances
Totally fair. I think the next step for him is on nights like game 3 he needs to figure out how to get some of the calls he whines about when he turns it over. In a hypothetical world where 2 of his 7 TOs in game 3 were fouls that's probably about a 6 point swing if you add some FT's for Tatum and take away transition points for the heat.
 

RorschachsMask

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I have Tatum at 5 or 6, but his ability to play like the best player in the league on any given night is just as important.

Rankings are fun, but things are so fluid. I just have it more as “guys good enough to lead teams to a title”, then the next tier.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I have Tatum at 5 or 6, but his ability to play like the best player in the league on any given night is just as important.

Rankings are fun, but things are so fluid. I just have it more as “guys good enough to lead teams to a title”, then the next tier.
Yeah, top 5 is essentially short hand for tier 1. Though sometimes there are more than 5 of those guys. Lately, there's been like 7 or 8. That's probably why the NBA playoffs are so open this year, too.
 

Devizier

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Can Embiid make a Conference Finals? I've grown to like Joel more than I did, and he has gotten some bad luck, but hard to say he is better than Tatum when Tatum has consistently risen to the occasion in the playoffs and Embiid basically never has.
I see one big argument for Tatum over Embiid and that is Tatum is far more durable. This doesn’t just show up in appearances, but also in the ability to sustain performance under duress.
 

Van Everyman

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Made the point somewhat tongue-in-cheekily during the game but he can be absolutely dominant playing a “Melo” game in the paint using his size and strength and a dose of patience to find daylight and get to the line. He’s not as big as Melo but a similar skillset is there for when the shot isn’t falling. Hell, a lot of people said Melo was his upside coming out of college when they didn’t know he would also be a 40% outside shooter and great defender.

He was really effective last night getting defenders isolated and spinning/driving his way to the hoop when they overcommitted—the standard Miami individual D is to place yourself on the opponents back as if you are their tight-fitting jacket, which can be exploited under the right circumstances.
Doesn’t upend your point or anything but both Anthony and Tatum are listed as 6’8” and most seem to think Tatum has grown at least an inch if not two since the draft. His shoulders are also enormous.

Edit: wait, you’re saying Carmelo Anthony was a great defender too?
 

DGreenwood

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Doesn’t upend your point or anything but both Anthony and Tatum are listed as 6’8” and most seem to think Tatum has grown at least an inch if not two since the draft. His shoulders are also enormous.

Edit: wait, you’re saying Carmelo Anthony was a great defender too?
I think he's just saying that Melo is bigger at 240 lbs and can operate a little easier in the paint because of it. Tatum looks like he's headed to the 230/240 range if he keeps doing what he's been doing in the offseason.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Doesn’t upend your point or anything but both Anthony and Tatum are listed as 6’8” and most seem to think Tatum has grown at least an inch if not two since the draft. His shoulders are also enormous.

Edit: wait, you’re saying Carmelo Anthony was a great defender too?
Sorry, was maybe a little loose with my pronouns. Melo was a common comp for Tatum before it became clear that Tatum could be a 40% 3pt shooter and an excellent defender (and playmaker, which I neglected to include above). The comp makes much less sense now in light of the extra elements in Tatum's game.

I think he's just saying that Melo is bigger at 240 lbs and can operate a little easier in the paint because of it. Tatum looks like he's headed to the 230/240 range if he keeps doing what he's been doing in the offseason.
Yeah, basically this. Prime Melo was great at bully ball and using that bulk to find daylight through contact. Tatum is still getting there but he also has more fluidity and grace to go with his increasingly strong frame and will never be as hefty as Melo—they carry the weight differently.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Tough for Trae Young to lead the league in total assists and points and get beat out by Booker. DeRozan also seems better than Booker.

(I hadn't noticed before, BTW, that Tatum led the league in field goals attempted.)
 

Ed Hillel

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This means Tatum is eligible for more money in his supermax and would have to turn down an even larger amount to leave at the end of his deal, correct?
 

Sam Ray Not

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Booker over Steph is UTTER BULLSHIT (by RPM, Curry #3, Booker #23; by RAPTOR, Curry #6, Booker #19; plus it's fucking Steph Curry v. Devin Booker), but Tatum is richly deserving.

Steph, Luka, Tatum, Giannis, Jokic is the correct answer.
 
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nighthob

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I think he's solidly in the 6-9 range. Almost every non top 5 player has no shows, and he sneaks into the top 5 maybe only if the injured players don't come back close to where they were. Giannis, Jokic, Embiid are locks. Healthy Kawhi is a lock. Then it's murky - is KD still better? Luka? I think the public does consider those 2 as above Tatum though there are plenty of analytics that argue otherwise. What about Motivated Playoff Lebron? I think Tatum's overall game puts him above Steph or healthy Dame or healthy AD for sure but say that out loud and there are sure to be a few complaints. That's 10 that could be ahead, but I don't think all of them are. The rest of the best are healthy PG13, Butler, Trae, Ja, Booker, KAT and I think it's clear that Tatum is better than those guys.
Healthy Kawhi was last seen partying with Bigfoot and Yeti over at Loch Ness. Healthy AD was hanging with them in his free time, which there’s lots of in his case given his injury history. On any given day LeBron and KD can be better. But not night in and night out. But it’s a moot point now, 1st Team All NBA. Top 5.
 

nighthob

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This means Tatum is eligible for more money in his supermax and would have to turn down an even larger amount to leave at the end of his deal, correct?
Yes, Tatum is eligible for a designated veteran (35% max) deal when he opts out of this deal in a couple of years. Other teams can only offer him 30%. This is the situation Milwaukee was in with Giannis (and one reason that he was happy to re-sign there).
 

Jimbodandy

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Booker over Steph is UTTER BULLSHIT (by RPM, Curry #3, Booker #23; by RAPTOR, Curry #6, Booker #19; plus it's fucking Steph Curry v. Devin Booker), but Tatum is richly deserving.

Steph, Luka, Tatum, Giannis, Jokic is the correct answer.
Fwiw, DARKO doesn't even think that Booker is the best guard on his own team.

Happy for Tatum. Voters got it right.


edit:
Booker: 4.5O, -.9D, 3.7 overall
Paul: 3O, 1.6D, 4.6 overall
 

nighthob

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First team has two lockdown defenders, with the second team you don’t even really have to go hunting. Of course both back courts are pretty bad defensively.
 

RetractableRoof

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I bet people would pay serious money to see a scrimmage between those two teams. No clock, first to 50, no substitutions, full refs - or maybe Elam endings of some sort.

Being greedy, best 2 of 3 with 20 minutes between sets.
 

The Social Chair

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Yes, Tatum is eligible for a designated veteran (35% max) deal when he opts out of this deal in a couple of years. Other teams can only offer him 30%. This is the situation Milwaukee was in with Giannis (and one reason that he was happy to re-sign there).
He's actually not eligible. Needed to make at least 3rd team last year. Could bite the Celtics in the ass in a few years.
 

lexrageorge

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He's actually not eligible. Needed to make at least 3rd team last year. Could bite the Celtics in the ass in a few years.
If he makes the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team All NBA either next season or the following, he would then be eligible for the supermax extension in the summer of 2024. Making it this season allows an election next season to satisfy the criteria.

EDIT: What Tatum lost by not making All NBA last season was the kicker in his current contract. That is gone for good, unfortunately. But it's not the team's fault, and the fact remains that only the Celtics would be able to offer him the supermax in 2 years.
 
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Mystic Merlin

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If he makes the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team All NBA either next season or the following, he would then be eligible for the supermax extension in the summer of 2024. Making it this season allows an election next season to satisfy the criteria.
Yep. He lost out on about 30M under the rookie extension, which lasts three more years with a PO for the fourth, due to missing All NBA last year, but he can readily qualify for the 7-8 year super max.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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The meme just highlights, frankly, why Curry and Booker should be flipped.
Yea, swap Curry and Booker and it’s not even a topic of conversation. Casuals still think KD is the best player in the world. First team would torch Second
 

Jimbodandy

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Yea, swap Curry and Booker and it’s not even a topic of conversation. Casuals still think KD is the best player in the world. First team would torch Second
Giannis is so wildly above everyone else that it's laughable, and I love KD.

We just watched Giannis drag a team of so-so players to 7 games against the same team that swept Durant and a bunch of so-so players plus Kyrie.
 

mostman

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GA just dragged his team of non third-team NBA players to game 7 of a series against a superior team. Him with the other first-team players? Please. That’s a sweep.

Edit: Jimbo got it.
 

nighthob

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He's actually not eligible. Needed to make at least 3rd team last year. Could bite the Celtics in the ass in a few years.
Nope. He can still be Boston’s designated veteran. The requirements are that a player either be on their rookie deal or be with the team that signed them to their first rookie extension (for players traded during their rookie deal).
 

Eddie Jurak

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Nope. He can still be Boston’s designated veteran. The requirements are that a player either be on their rookie deal or be with the team that signed them to their first rookie extension (for players traded during their rookie deal).
Taken literally, the bolded would suggest he is not eligible.
 

nighthob

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Taken literally, the bolded would suggest he is not eligible.
If you are traded during your first four years you are eligible to be a designated veteran. If you are still with the team that drafted you, you’re eligible to be a designated veteran. If Tatum were traded to the Lakers this summer, the Lakers could not make him their designated veteran (this is what’s meant by supermax, a premature bump to the next level). Tatum can be offered a 35% max deal when he opts out of this deal.
 

lovegtm

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Second team has fucking DeRozan.

Come on.
The first team might have some serious defensive issues. Booker, Jokic, and Doncic can all be part of good schemes, but throwing them all out there together could be rough.

Giannis and Tatum in help covers a lot of sins though, and Jokic can guard Embiid.