JBJ: Elite Defender With Some Pop

[soxeast]

My "narrative" is whether santa Claus delivers me cases of Dogfish 90 during JBJ's at bat.
That also makes little sense and is not how most managers see the game.

What are we arguing? Maybe you are trying to morph this argument into something it isn't? Specifically what I said to you or whoever responded to my post about "going off" can't change the meaning of my definition to your own definition. I don't think most managers see the game like you are trying to do if you are suggesting a .180 CF outstanding defensively is a position type player you wouldn't consider platooning. I think you are making up "what most managers would do." The SOx didn't have much of an alternative before Pearce, but they got a RH bat now not only for 1B, and to sub Beni.

Anyhow, at this moment I said I'd play him. So what's the problem? As for how mangers see the game- you think if JBJ hits .180 they won't take him out more and use Pearce unless the other bottom of the order guys hit so you don't have for example up to 4 holes in the lineup? When they got Pearce DD specifically said he is a 1B and an OF. An outfielder too. An outfielder too. If he goes to .180 again while Pearce is hitting very well vs LH pitching and the SOx need to win to keep up with trying to win the division vs gettign the wild card, while the other guys 6-9 struggle hitting - we'll see "how managers see the game." Now that they have a RH bat and if Moreland continues to play at all-star level vs other AL 1B. I hope this doesn't morph this into "I hate JBJ."

There is reason why WAR has him 22nd - 24th CF. It's because of his lousy hitting. You want to say that's okay and most managers would go with your view - okay. We can respectfully agree to disagree. But right now I'm all for playing him too.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Huh? I said it was great to see JBJ go off. Wasn't it? Is he on a tear right now? He's 8 for his last 16. That's a 4 to 5 game tear. I meant a month tear. If anyone thinks "batted balls" is the definition of "going on a tear" that;s fine with their definition but it isn't mine. I'm looking for that huge run of 25-30 games that he actually gets hits. Not 25-30 at bats, or hard hit balls to the 2b. I'm darn happy what we saw vs Angels. And I'm very hopeful to see a big run with many hits. He can do it.

I agree with you about Pearce in generality. But there is also other weaknesses such as JBJ has had reverse splits. I heard about a week ago JBJ is hitting .118 vs curveballs? Is it just an anomaly? Power pitchers bother certain players etc. I just made my reply to JoeSixpack making it a point that Pearce is also a JBJ replacement as you say. There was a post following ours that said JBJ's replacement is "Swihart." That's not real unless things go super great or terribly wrong, right? As a genarility, Pearce is also for JBJ as you say. Not Swihart. And I threw out the numbers of 60% etc just as a generality in reply to a post made by someone else on this thread or another that the Pearce trade move was 60MM/30JBJ/10 Beni. I think with JBJ vs MM it's play it as it comes with JBJ getting a slight nod for the time being. He can't be hitting .180. Which he no longer is. That's great. Hopefully the hits can continue. Is that wrong to say?

First, my comment about JBJ’s replacement being Swihart was made 1.5 days before Pearce was traded to the Red Sox.

Second, your entire argument, from an offensive perspective, is based on the controlling importance of batting average as a measure of meaningful offense. This has been proven, time and again, to be one of the least useful or predictive stats in terms of actual offensive value, because it does not consider either raw batted-ball data, nor raw on-base data. May as well use Runs.

Third, your entire argument, from a defensive perspective, is based on the controlling importance of current in-year dWAR as a measure of meaningful defense. This has been proven, time and again, to be one of the least useful or predictive stats in terms of actual defensive value, because it does not consider sample sizes of relevant size to control for the error bars created by the very statistical calculations necessary to create the statistic itself. May as well use Errors.

JBJ has 33 Runs, 17% above the average of all #9 hitters in MLB (28.2 R). He also has 1 Error, which is a whopping 153% better than the average CF in MLB (2.53).

Clearly, JBJ is above-average, both offensively and defensively.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

LOL at anyone calling JBJ above average offensively with a straight face even with any type of qualifier. He has been shit.

edit: People are going to some greath lengths and jumping through flame rings to defend JBJ's offense. If you think he'll hit going forward because of his batted ball profile going foward, fine. But don't ignore the actual results, either.

 

[williams_482]

Nobody cares (or nobody should care) how JBJ has hit before or how he is hitting "right now" except insomuch as that allows us to project his performance in the future. He can control whether or not he's hitting screaming line drives. He can't control whether or not those screaming line drives find gloves.

I will continue to happily ignore that his results have been bad as long as JBJ continues to hit the ball hard, work counts, and play good defense.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Nobody cares (or nobody should care) how JBJ has hit before or how he is hitting "right now" except insomuch as that allows us to project his performance in the future. He can control whether or not he's hitting screaming line drives. He can't control whether or not those screaming line drives find gloves.

I will continue to happily ignore that his results have been bad as long as JBJ continues to hit the ball hard, work counts, and play good defense.

I'm pretty sure JBJ could go 1500 PA with a sub .600 OPS and people would still say the same thing. At some point, results matter more than luck.

 

[soxeast]

Nobody cares (or nobody should care) how JBJ has hit before or how he is hitting "right now" except insomuch as that allows us to project his performance in the future. He can control whether or not he's hitting screaming line drives. He can't control whether or not those screaming line drives find gloves.

I will continue to happily ignore that his results have been bad as long as JBJ continues to hit the ball hard, work counts, and play good defense.

DD cared enough to address to get a bat vs left-handed hitters. DD is not ignoring it. He shouldn't. Right now they are hitting throughout the lineup. SO yes "no one cares." But DD even said in his press conference he got a bat to address LH pitching didn't he? So was it only to get a sub for MM? It wasn't.

If they are winning and other players are carring that bat load at he bottom such as Devers lately then you can afford less hitting from either or both the catcher or CF etc.

If you want to happily ignore the hitting results - fine - I do too as long as they are winning. But I never have a problem with a team trying to improve their positions that they are most weakest. I think they've done fine now.

 

[Byrdbrain]

LOL at anyone calling JBJ above average offensively with a straight face even with any type of qualifier. He has been shit.

edit: People are going to some greath lengths and jumping through flame rings to defend JBJ's offense. If you think he'll hit going forward because of his batted ball profile going foward, fine. But don't ignore the actual results, either.

I haven't and wouldn't call him above average offensively.
What I have said and will continue to say is JBJ is the best option the Sox have in CF this year due to elite defense and potentially decent offense. He's been scalding the ball for over a month now, at first he wasn't getting results but it was clear to almost everyone what was going on. The results have been there for more than two weeks now and I fully expect the team to give him every opportunity in the field to keep it up.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I haven't and wouldn't call him above average offensively.
What I have said and will continue to say is JBJ is the best option the Sox have in CF this year due to elite defense and potentially decent offense. He's been scalding the ball for over a month now, at first he wasn't getting results but it was clear to almost everyone what was going on. The results have been there for more than two weeks now and I fully expect the team to give him every opportunity in the field to keep it up.

Buzzkill Pauley did. Granted he is a JBJ fan boy. He also hasn't been getting results for 2 weeks. He got results for a 4 game stretch. The week prior to the 4 game stretch he had an OPS under .500 in 6 games. What results? Prior to that 4 game stretch, his slash line in the month of June was .127/.233/.238 in 78 PA. People make false narratives around JBJ.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Buzzkill Pauley did. Granted he is a JBJ fan boy. He also hasn't been getting results for 2 weeks. He got results for a 4 game stretch. The week prior to the 4 game stretch he had an OPS under .500 in 6 games. What results? Prior to that 4 game stretch, his slash line in the month of June was .127/.233/.238 in 78 PA. People make false narratives around JBJ.

Fair enough, I looked at the "last 14 days" splits yesterday and they were good. Looking again he is at .851 for the past 14 days but that is heavily weighted towards a couple of big games the past couple of weeks.
He's still hitting the ball hard and most people, with a very specific exception in this thread, think that is a good indicator.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Fair enough, I looked at the "last 14 days" splits yesterday and they were good. Looking again he is at .851 for the past 14 days but that is heavily weighted towards a couple of big games the past couple of weeks.
He's still hitting the ball hard and most people, with a very specific exception in this thread, think that is a good indicator.

Like you said before, they don't really have a better choice anyway. If he's OPSing around .630 at the end of the year though, I hope they let him walk/trade him rather than pay him $9-10mil.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Buzzkill Pauley did. Granted he is a JBJ fan boy. He also hasn't been getting results for 2 weeks. He got results for a 4 game stretch. The week prior to the 4 game stretch he had an OPS under .500 in 6 games. What results? Prior to that 4 game stretch, his slash line in the month of June was .127/.233/.238 in 78 PA. People make false narratives around JBJ.

I think you need to check your sarcasm meter.

Or, maybe I do.

 

[soxeast]

First, my comment about JBJ’s replacement being Swihart was made 1.5 days before Pearce was traded to the Red Sox.



Clearly, JBJ is above-average, both offensively and defensively.

No. He isn;t.

He's hitting 9th for a reason behind what once was also lousy hitting catchers and Nunez and at the time a struggling Devers. The bottom of the order was a hitting problem. They were able to overcome it. But as of right now JBJ's WRC+ is 69. His batting average .200 with a .289 OBP. His WOBA for CFers of .277 is 24th best amongst all CF outfielders. These are not the stats of an above average hitter. You can't go and ignore these stats.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Billy Hamilton 2017 - 5.27 runs in 136 games with him vs. 5.85 runs in 26 games without him
Kiermaier 2017 the opposite - 4.48 runs in 96 games with him vs. 4.15 runs in 66 games without him
Marisnick 2017 - 4.17 runs in 83 games in CF, 3.25 runs in 8 games in the corners, 4.62 runs in 71 games without him

I don't have any point. Just looking this stuff up.

For guys who have a small number of games on the bench, you should look up pitching too, because if the starting OF plays the most with the best pitchers, then the sub is going to have worse runs numbers even if defense is even.

 

[The Red Industry]

You can't go and ignore these stats.

I will continue to happily ignore that his results have been bad as long as JBJ continues to hit the ball hard, work counts, and play good defense.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I think you need to check your sarcasm meter.

Or, maybe I do.

WBCD: no. No, you don’t.

I mean, seriously?

Buzzkill Pauley did. Granted he is a JBJ fan boy. He also hasn't been getting results for 2 weeks. He got results for a 4 game stretch. The week prior to the 4 game stretch he had an OPS under .500 in 6 games. What results? Prior to that 4 game stretch, his slash line in the month of June was .127/.233/.238 in 78 PA. People make false narratives around JBJ.

Somehow, bosox79 missed the entire point that I had to intentionally compare JBJ to the entirety of #9 hitters — including NL starting pitchers — to find a stat that shows he’s been an above average hitter in 2018.

Lol, with a straight face.

Then there’s this gem:

I think all the stats stated above have no relevance.

You can't go and ignore these stats.

I can’t even. No words.

 

[soxeast]

WBCD: no. No, you don’t.

I mean, seriously?





Then there’s this gem:





I can’t even. No words.

With respect. I feel the same way. You and maybe a couple of others on here are the only ones from all the websites I've been on to suggest JBJ is an above-average hitter. I can't believe it. Also, I don't know if it was you or someone else who was making up some stats of +/- without taking into account of so many other factors but that was another.

All the stats I give and you want to focus narrowly on the #9 hitter without focusing on the stats. It's unreal to me. Tell me why all the stats I gave are not valid for explaining why he isn't that type of bottom of the order type of hitter? If his WOBA, WRC+, his ba and OBP are at the bottom - that doesn't mean a thing? huh? We shouldn't count them to show he is a sub-par hitter?

 

[sean1562]

i think we have hit the point here where both sides have their own opinions of the guy and now we are just descending into talking at each other. I am a little disappointed with JBJ's season so far, but I think Devers is going to heat up and we can carry JBJ's bat for a bit until he gets hot and sustains it for a bit. Here is to hoping his hottest month is in October.

It is important to note that we are leading the AL East and are firmly in the upper echelons of the league. If Nunez, Devers and JBJ heat up? With Price returning to form? And possibly Pomeranz as well? I like our chances of winning it all, this team is better than last year's, no question

 

[The Red Industry]

i think we have hit the point here where both sides have their own opinions of the guy and now we are just descending into talking at each other.

It's clearly this issue. JBJ has been subpar offensively up to this point but all signs point to a breakout. It's really whatever narrative you want to hang your hat on but with more snark. At the end of the year one side will be proven more right than the other hopefully.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

With respect. I feel the same way. You and maybe a couple of others on here are the only ones from all the websites I've been on to suggest JBJ is an above-average hitter. I can't believe it. Also, I don't know if it was you or someone else who was making up some stats of +/- without taking into account of so many other factors but that was another.

All the stats I give and you want to focus narrowly on the #9 hitter without focusing on the stats. It's unreal to me. Tell me why all the stats I gave are not valid for explaining why he isn't that type of bottom of the order type of hitter? If his WOBA, WRC+, his ba and OBP are at the bottom - that doesn't mean a thing? huh? We shouldn't count them to show he is a sub-par hitter?

You have obviously not understood what I have actually said.

 

[judyb]

He still completely missed the point of you telling WBCD he's not the one who needs to check his sarcasm meter. I don't get how people who've been hanging around here as long as soxeast has can take even half the things you and E5 Yaz post seriously.

 

[soxeast]

okay everyone I'm done with this thread for a while. Sorry it got to the last point. Waiting for another great game tonight.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

WBCD: no. No, you don’t.

I mean, seriously?



Somehow, bosox79 missed the entire point that I had to intentionally compare JBJ to the entirety of #9 hitters — including NL starting pitchers — to find a stat that shows he’s been an above average hitter in 2018.

Lol, with a straight face.

Then there’s this gem:





I can’t even. No words.

No I didn't. I said JBJ is a terrible hitter regardless and you coming up with someway to say that he's been actually good up to this point in the season with ANY TYPE OF QUALIFIER is laughable.

 

[joe dokes]

No I didn't. I said JBJ is a terrible hitter regardless and you coming up with someway to say that he's been actually good up to this point with ANY TYPE OF QUALIFIER is laughable.

The only point I care about is that Cora was right to stick with him through the stretch of hard hit outs, because to anyone paying attention, it was quite likely that those hard hits outs would soon be hard hit not-outs.

The hard hit balls were outs so " so what" is Joe Morgan territory. (A guy who gives up 5 billion runs in 5 innings but gets the win pitched better than the guy who lost 1-0.)

 

[judyb]

No I didn't. I said JBJ is a terrible hitter regardless and you coming up with someway to say that he's been actually good up to this point in the season with ANY TYPE OF QUALIFIER is laughable.

Being laughable was the point.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Being laughable was the point.

I guess I missed that part. If so, my bad.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I guess I missed that part. If so, my bad.

In all seriousness, my only point throughout this entire thread, has been that as bad a hitter as JBJ has been, it’s still been better to play him in centerfield rather than sit him out of the lineup.

Now, that fact was predicated on his offensive substitute actually being Swihart, and his defensive substitute actually being JDM. Since Pearce is on the team, that calculus changes, because he has become both the offensive and defensive substitute.

But even so, it’s too early to say that it’s better for the team overall, to play Pearce and sit JBJ. Because we still don’t have sufficient defensive data to address how much worse a Pearce-Benintendi-Betts outfield would be, in comparison to the original.

And we do know that the Red Sox can win games at a historic rate, despite carrying JBJ’s poor bat.

 

[dbn]

IMVHO, this thread needs a few days on the bench to get itself together.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

For guys who have a small number of games on the bench, you should look up pitching too, because if the starting OF plays the most with the best pitchers, then the sub is going to have worse runs numbers even if defense is even.

That would take more work

 

[The Needler]

For guys who have a small number of games on the bench, you should look up pitching too, because if the starting OF plays the most with the best pitchers, then the sub is going to have worse runs numbers even if defense is even.

And the RS/g or OPS of the opponents in the games the starter didn't play. And we still don't know who the other OF were in those games. The need for all of this additional data, which after analysis still doesn't establish causation with any reliability, is probably why on vs. off is not a widely kept or utilized defensive statistic.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

And the RS/g or OPS of the opponents in the games the starter didn't play. And we still don't know who the other OF were in those games. The need for all of this additional data, which after analysis still doesn't establish causation with any reliability, is probably why on vs. off is not a widely kept or utilized defensive statistic.

True. It’s just as polyvalent and problematic as cERA. And no one ever tried to use that unreliable measure to assess what a catcher’s true in-game impact happens to be.

 

[The Needler]

True. It’s just as polyvalent and problematic as cERA. And no one ever tried to use that unreliable measure to assess what a catcher’s true in-game impact happens to be.

I don't really get the upshot of your sarcasm, but yeah, it's even more problematic and less valuable than cERA.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Last 15 games: .340/.404/.580 on a .375 BAbip in 57 PA.
Last 13 games: .256/.340/.442 on a .294 BAbip in 50 PA.

He had the 2 games where he went 6/7, but he's still been pretty solid since then too. This is probably his best stretch of hitting he has had all year. He did have a nice stretch at the end of May but it was fueled by an incredibly high BAbip. In his last 15 games, he has 8 xbh. He had 15 xbh in the first 68 games.

Those 15 games raised his season line from .178/.275/.288 to .208/.299/.342. That's 76 points in OPS. If JBJ continues to hit that way for the next 15 games and 57 PA, giving us a "JBJ month", his season line would be ..229/.315/.380, which isn't far off from last year's line of .245/.323/.402. That's a big if, but it is pretty remarkable how fast a season can change with a good or bad month. Then again, that 57 PA sample is 18.5% of his season. Manny Margot is having a somewhat similar season OPS wise to JBJ and raised his from .522 to .699 in 29 games (.327/.404/.522, 104 PA), though he has fallen back down to .656 in the 14 games since (.184/.259/.204, 54 PA).

Long story short, JBJ can still save his season, and he can do it relatively quickly by turning that 15 game hot streak into a 30 game one. Of course, the opposite is true too but lets think positive. I've been pretty down on him all year but he's been getting results and looking good in the process for a couple weeks now.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Last 15 games: .340/.404/.580 on a .375 BAbip in 57 PA.
Last 13 games: .256/.340/.442 on a .294 BAbip in 50 PA.

He had the 2 games where he went 6/7, but he's still been pretty solid since then too. This is probably his best stretch of hitting he has had all year. He did have a nice stretch at the end of May but it was fueled by an incredibly high BAbip. In his last 15 games, he has 8 xbh. He had 15 xbh in the first 68 games.

Those 15 games raised his season line from .178/.275/.288 to .208/.299/.342. That's 76 points in OPS. If JBJ continues to hit that way for the next 15 games and 57 PA, giving us a "JBJ month", his season line would be ..229/.315/.380, which isn't far off from last year's line of .245/.323/.402. That's a big if, but it is pretty remarkable how fast a season can change with a good or bad month. Then again, that 57 PA sample is 18.5% of his season. Manny Margot is having a somewhat similar season OPS wise to JBJ and raised his from .522 to .699 in 29 games (.327/.404/.522, 104 PA), though he has fallen back down to .656 in the 14 games since (.184/.259/.204, 54 PA).

Long story short, JBJ can still save his season, and he can do it relatively quickly by turning that 15 game hot streak into a 30 game one. Of course, the opposite is true too but lets think positive. I've been pretty down on him all year but he's been getting results and looking good in the process for a couple weeks now.

JBJ usually has a streak where he hits several home runs and we haven't seen that yet. He hasn't homered since June 28th. His HR/FB is at 9% which is solidly below his post-2014 career normal between 15-18%. So I still expect him to get a bit of a power boost at some point even if he doesn't have an insane hot streak like 2015 or parts of 2016. A mid-700s OPS from JBJ is a very good player and I still think he can get there this season with a little flurry of power.

 

[phenweigh]

Eck commented last night that on JBJ's double off the wall he was in a hitter's count and didn't try and pull the ball. Maybe that's a sign that all the hard-hit balls into the shift that have been turned into outs have led him to change his approach. Also, maybe JDM who likes to go the other way and takes what the pitcher gives him is having a positive influence oh JBJ.

 

[bradmahn]

Bradley's Last 30-15-7 Game BA/OBP/SLG slashes are perfectly fine to me.

Last 30: .222/.307/.414 (.721 OPS)
Last 15: .340/.404/.580 (.984 OPS)
Last 7: .280/.321/.480 (.801 OPS)

Over the last two months, a 50 game sample that begins the first day after he was given a few games off in early May, he is at .233/.322/.396 (.719 OPS).

 

[AB in DC]

Now, that fact was predicated on his offensive substitute actually being Swihart, and his defensive substitute actually being JDM. Since Pearce is on the team, that calculus changes, because he has become both the offensive and defensive substitute.

Baseball stats have become so complicated (and opaque) these days. What I'd really like to see is a stat that answers this question:

Player A (with statistical profile X) replaces Player B (stat profile Y) in the lineup. How does that change the expected number of runs the team would score tonight against average pitching?

To be more generalizable, compare X to a replacement-level hitter and Y to a replacement level hitter; then the difference between the two metrics should answer the question.

This doesn't sound like it should be too complicated to generate -- you may need to make some simplifying assumptions (e.g. assume exactly four PAs, no change in batting order, average hitting players in the rest of the lineup) but that should be enough to get started.

 

[Boggs26]

Baseball stats have become so complicated (and opaque) these days. What I'd really like to see is a stat that answers this question:

Player A (with statistical profile X) replaces Player B (stat profile Y) in the lineup. How does that change the expected number of runs the team would score tonight against average pitching?

To be more generalizable, compare X to a replacement-level hitter and Y to a replacement level hitter; then the difference between the two metrics should answer the question.

This doesn't sound like it should be too complicated to generate -- you may need to make some simplifying assumptions (e.g. assume exactly four PAs, no change in batting order, average hitting players in the rest of the lineup) but that should be enough to get started.

Wouldn't that just be the difference in two players' WAR or VORP? They may not be perfect measures, but the theory is that they represent a players value over some imaginary replacement player, right? So simply subtracting should give you a value over the other player. (WAOP or VOOP?)

 

[Van Everyman]

 

[nvalvo]

I posted something like this in another thread, but I have a theory about Bradley's season.

I think he tried to do the launch angle thing. Normally, that leaves a hitter somewhat vulnerable to a high strike, but for whatever reason, it left Bradley completely vulnerable.

He had a .733 OPS for the first 17 games, with only 7 Ks, but it only took that long for the league to figure out that they could beat him with high fastballs. His strikeouts ballooned. Over the next 17 games, he K'd an insane 26 times, posting a .259 OPS for that stretch. Unplayable.

Cora sat him for a few games, and I think he went back to old swing mechanics. He's at a .713 OPS since then, with better and worse stretches coming as BABIP offered or (mostly) withheld her favors. But basically, other than his 17 game crisis when he couldn't touch even pedestrian fastballs at the letters, he's been the same guy as last season. And that's a good player.

I anticipate a good second half, but mediocre full season numbers.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

He looks like a hell of a hitter when it appears he tries to hit to all fields - that's when he's at his best and that's when he goes into 30 game hit streaks.

When he strays from that and starts trying to uppercut HR's to right he goes into a massive funk.

Let that be a lesson to all kids - hit the ball where its pitched, you'll be a better hitter for it.

 

[williams_482]

Honestly, he looks like he's in the middle of a career year that's been undercut by absolutely miserable BABiP luck.

His xwOBA continues to rise, up to .357 now (better than any wOBA or xwOBA he has posted in his career). His exit velocity (92.0, 92nd percentile) and hard hit rate (49.1%, 96th percentile) are superb. His average launch angle is 11.5, pretty solid for someone who isn't going to sell out for power, and his launch angle distribution looks pretty good as well: Plenty of liners, relatively few popups.

Just imagine how different this thread would be if the rockets he's been hitting had started falling in a little sooner.

 

[Reverend]

This thread title is legitimately irritating at this point.

 

[gedman211]

Is JBJ's job safe?



Yes...Yes, it's very safe

 

[The Needler]

JBJ’s catch going back to the wall against Mancini in the 7th inning last night was pretty great. I wanted to see how Inside Edge rated it, so I took a screenshot of his fangraphs page to compare it to this morning. It has been updated today, and only added three putouts to his total, all at “routine.” But he actually had three putouts. Does anyone have direct access to the Inside Edge data, or otherwise know what’s going on here? It seems the likely possibilities are that the play is under further review, or Jackie broke their system.

 

[teddywingman]

Fielding metrics are useless at this point. They will improve over time I'm sure, but so far they only have amusement value.

In the JDM fielding thread, there's some discussion about how outfield defense has very little impact because they have so few chances to make plays that aren't either routine or impossible. If that's the case, then JBJ is even better than I thought, because he's making 3 plays a week that I could not categorize as routine. And it seems like nearly once a week he makes a catch that makes me say, "nobody else gets to that."

 

[joe dokes]

I saw about 45 minutes of the NYY-NYM game Saturday afternoon. I saw 4 (? at least 3) NYY balls hit to or near CF in one inning that Met "CF" Vern den Herder was unable to catch. I *think* JBJ would have had them all.

 

[The Needler]

Fielding metrics are useless at this point. They will improve over time I'm sure, but so far they only have amusement value.

In the JDM fielding thread, there's some discussion about how outfield defense has very little impact because they have so few chances to make plays that aren't either routine or impossible. If that's the case, then JBJ is even better than I thought, because he's making 3 plays a week that I could not categorize as routine. And it seems like nearly once a week he makes a catch that makes me say, "nobody else gets to that."

Thanks. I'm still interested in how Inside Edge categorized the play at least as much as how you categorized it.

 

[teddywingman]

Thanks. I'm still interested in how Inside Edge categorized the play at least as much as how you categorized it.

I'm interested too.

 

[Pitt the Elder]

Honestly, he looks like he's in the middle of a career year that's been undercut by absolutely miserable BABiP luck.

His xwOBA continues to rise, up to .357 now (better than any wOBA or xwOBA he has posted in his career). His exit velocity (92.0, 92nd percentile) and hard hit rate (49.1%, 96th percentile) are superb. His average launch angle is 11.5, pretty solid for someone who isn't going to sell out for power, and his launch angle distribution looks pretty good as well: Plenty of liners, relatively few popups. View attachment 22164

Just imagine how different this thread would be if the rockets he's been hitting had started falling in a little sooner.

JBJ's has the biggest negative difference between BA and xBA in the league and the 3rd biggest negative difference in SLG and xSLG.

 

[teddywingman]

Statcast says that catch had a 42% chance of being caught? (Sunday vs. Twins at Fenway)

Bull. Shit.