Meanwhile, Bradley has gone 4/8 in the two games against NY, tacking .091 onto his BA and .255 onto his OPS.
JBJ: Elite Defender With Some Pop
- Thread starter gedman211
- Start date
-
- Tags
- jackie bradley jr
I fucking hate the existence of this thread. JBJ has complete job security for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, could we change the title to something more general?
Or, you know. Lock it down and move on.
At the very least, could we change the title to something more general?
Or, you know. Lock it down and move on.
Can JBJ's career in Boston be saved? His career looks useful for a GG caliber fielder (2000+ PA, OPS+90) but he is far below that now.
This question relevant. https://bosoxinjection.com/2018/05/06/red-sox-save-jackie-bradleys-career/
This question relevant. https://bosoxinjection.com/2018/05/06/red-sox-save-jackie-bradleys-career/
Two questions:
In what world is JBJ far below GG caliber and why do you cite OPS to demonstrate it?
What did the article in that link contribute to any understanding of JBJ?
JBJ is the starting CF, period. We don't have a more optimal alignment vs LHP as an alternative when factoring in the downgrades on defense. I think we need more than one year of defensive WAR data to statistically understand a player's real value in the field, but these ones just pass the sniff test.
Also, I think the value of an elite centerfielder who isn't a zero at the plate or on the bases is being underrated here. Guys like Kevin Pillar and Kevin Kiermaier immediately come to mind. It's a core player type skill set even if the hitting is streaky. I would even argue that the value of having a guy with some modest power threat at the bottom of the order is a plus in that your lineup is causing more stress pitches to occur.
We hopefully will get to see what playoff Cora is later this year. I think it would be fair to ask if JBJ has job security in that kind of situation. He's a matchup vulnerability because when teams have more lefties in the pen in the postseason, he's the obvious target. Cora isn't going to want to take his defense out of a close/late game and will be disinclined to pinch hit his way out of the matchup. I would hope that JBJ's month at the plate hasn't changed that kind of conversation. He was probably already a little vulnerable here. The bench has enough flexibility and depth in Nunez and Moreland that they can maximize offense early and maximize defense late. I think you see Bradley more as the strong side of a platoon in the postseason, in the case that you're riding a hot hand and need to force a bat into the lineup. You could see a Holt hot streak pushing Bradley to the bench a little bit as a late inning guy.
Also, I think the value of an elite centerfielder who isn't a zero at the plate or on the bases is being underrated here. Guys like Kevin Pillar and Kevin Kiermaier immediately come to mind. It's a core player type skill set even if the hitting is streaky. I would even argue that the value of having a guy with some modest power threat at the bottom of the order is a plus in that your lineup is causing more stress pitches to occur.
We hopefully will get to see what playoff Cora is later this year. I think it would be fair to ask if JBJ has job security in that kind of situation. He's a matchup vulnerability because when teams have more lefties in the pen in the postseason, he's the obvious target. Cora isn't going to want to take his defense out of a close/late game and will be disinclined to pinch hit his way out of the matchup. I would hope that JBJ's month at the plate hasn't changed that kind of conversation. He was probably already a little vulnerable here. The bench has enough flexibility and depth in Nunez and Moreland that they can maximize offense early and maximize defense late. I think you see Bradley more as the strong side of a platoon in the postseason, in the case that you're riding a hot hand and need to force a bat into the lineup. You could see a Holt hot streak pushing Bradley to the bench a little bit as a late inning guy.
JBJ Career Splits:
Low leverage: 7.6 BB%, 24.3 K%, .245/.317/.413 in 1054 PA
Medium leverage: 9.5 BB%, 24.8 K%, .237/.319/.411 in 797 PA
High leverage: 13.8 BB%, 26.7 K%, .184/.294/.289 in 232 PA
Low leverage: 7.6 BB%, 24.3 K%, .245/.317/.413 in 1054 PA
Medium leverage: 9.5 BB%, 24.8 K%, .237/.319/.411 in 797 PA
High leverage: 13.8 BB%, 26.7 K%, .184/.294/.289 in 232 PA
Regarding your first question I believe he meant that if he hit to his career average it would be acceptable for an OF as good as JBJ is but since he is hitting worse than that then it is in question.
As to your second question I can only assume the poster wrote that article.
Caveat that this team is fantastic and super entertaining.
JBJ has been nearly 2014 dreadful since the 2nd half last year.
2014 - .198/.265/.266
2nd half 2017 - .204/.277/.302
This season .178/.264/.271
That pace equates to roughly replacement level if he is typical JBJ in the field.
I'm not sure what Beni would have to hit to make up for Bradley's superior defense should he move to centerfield in the future, but he'd probably be more valuable if he hits like steamer projects. They don't really have a good left field replacement right now, so I doubt that happens.
I'm not advocating benching Bradley since the team offense is great though the reasonable Sean McAdam thinks so.
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2018/05/06/mcadam-mitch-moreland-needs-play-jackie-bradley-jr/
JBJ has been nearly 2014 dreadful since the 2nd half last year.
2014 - .198/.265/.266
2nd half 2017 - .204/.277/.302
This season .178/.264/.271
That pace equates to roughly replacement level if he is typical JBJ in the field.
I'm not sure what Beni would have to hit to make up for Bradley's superior defense should he move to centerfield in the future, but he'd probably be more valuable if he hits like steamer projects. They don't really have a good left field replacement right now, so I doubt that happens.
I'm not advocating benching Bradley since the team offense is great though the reasonable Sean McAdam thinks so.
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2018/05/06/mcadam-mitch-moreland-needs-play-jackie-bradley-jr/
Last edited:
Yankee stadium is a decent ballpark to hide JDM. I'd do that and get the best lineup possible since they are facing Severino.
Last edited:
This was my takeaway, as well. And I didn’t even open the link.
I believe we’ll see a toilet-specific OF alignment of AB-7/MLB-8/JDM-9 this week, but also that JBJ shouldn’t be written off for the season.
But frankly, if he got on-board the S.S. Launch-Angle Revolution, then JBJ needs to disembark at the first port of call and return to using a shorter and more direct swing focusing on hitting to the opposite field, ASAP.
Earlier in the thread I said that making JDM a full-time OF and giving JBJ's starts to Moreland would make the team worse. I'm not so sure anymore. OTOH I don't know if JBJ can solve this from the bench. It's a tough spot for both him and Cora.
isn't the real debate between Jackie and HANLEY?
Moreland was a better hitter than Hanley last year, is better again this year, and is obviously far better defensively.
The only reason Hanley's line looks better than last year so far is due to his likely unsustainable .340babip.
Over this year and last:
Moreland: 657pa, 109wrc+, 1.9war
Bradley: 662pa, 82wrc+, 1.9war
Ramirez: 687pa, 98wrc+, 0.1war
Bradley and Moreland are 2 defense-first player's with just enough offense to make them passable starters.
Hanley is a league average bat with no defensive value - I.e. a replacement player.
now if bradley's bat has deteriorated even further and turned him into a replacement level playee himselt, then there might be an argument for hanley to start.
Moreland was a better hitter than Hanley last year, is better again this year, and is obviously far better defensively.
The only reason Hanley's line looks better than last year so far is due to his likely unsustainable .340babip.
Over this year and last:
Moreland: 657pa, 109wrc+, 1.9war
Bradley: 662pa, 82wrc+, 1.9war
Ramirez: 687pa, 98wrc+, 0.1war
Bradley and Moreland are 2 defense-first player's with just enough offense to make them passable starters.
Hanley is a league average bat with no defensive value - I.e. a replacement player.
now if bradley's bat has deteriorated even further and turned him into a replacement level playee himselt, then there might be an argument for hanley to start.
Last edited:
Hanley's career BAbip is .322. I think the more troubling thing is even with a .340 BAbip, his slash line isn't all that spectacular. His ISO is a sad .135.
I think it's a coin flip at this point in what is the better overall team. Hanley's .366 obp this season is more in line with his career .362 and obp is far more valuable than slugging. His exit velocity has improved a bit - not sure if 3mph is significant enough over last year, but it's also 1 mph higher than his good 2016.
I think they will both improve since JBJ has nowhere to go but up and the weather hasn't been great, but I am leaning more towards good defense until the team struggles to score runs.
Though I would give him a few days at this point.
I posted this in another thread, but Bradley has entirely respectable batted ball data in the Statcast numbers. Not amazing, but fine: his Barrels/Batted Ball Event ranking comes in a run of good hitters: Nomar Mazara, Adam Jones, Joey Votto, Mark Canha, Aaron Hicks, JBJ, Avisail Garcia, Max Kepler...
He's been pulling the ball (hard!) on the ground more than he should, which makes him pretty shiftable.
The issue seems to me that he has changed his swing in a way that makes him extremely vulnerable to high fastballs. Teams have figured this out, and so they now nibble until they get two strikes, and then strike him out with high heat. If they can locate at the letters, he's helpless: he needs to adjust back.
Neither his overall K rate nor his contact numbers are bad. He just has to find a way to fix that hole at the top of the zone.
He's been pulling the ball (hard!) on the ground more than he should, which makes him pretty shiftable.
The issue seems to me that he has changed his swing in a way that makes him extremely vulnerable to high fastballs. Teams have figured this out, and so they now nibble until they get two strikes, and then strike him out with high heat. If they can locate at the letters, he's helpless: he needs to adjust back.
Neither his overall K rate nor his contact numbers are bad. He just has to find a way to fix that hole at the top of the zone.
And he's been easier prey to the shift so far this year than ever before. Teams are shifting on him more-- the percentage of his PA that ended in a BIP against a shift has gone up from 32% in 2016 to 43% so far this year--because it's working: JBJ's pulled ground ball rate vs. the shift has gone up from 27.5% to 42.3%. The result has been that while JBJ hit a grounder into a shift in only 8.8% of his PA in 2016, so far this year it's been more than double that, 18.2%.
He's on thin ice imho. Cora should sit him for a few games and give Swihart a couple of games. Can't be any worse except maybe on defense but it's not like a night and day difference.
I actually agree that a day off couldn't hurt. However to say the difference on defense between JBJ is not like a night and day difference when that's pretty much exactly what it is.
If Blake Swihart is JBJ's biggest threat for PT then he's pretty safe for the time being.
That said I do fully believe JBJ came into this year at a career crossroad, and that his time here had/has the potential to end in a much more sudden and disappointing manner then a lot people would have previously been projecting a month ago. It would be one thing if we were talking about a sub-25yo kid here, but I'm doubting DD rides out more then 2 consecutive halves of .600ops'ish hitting at this point.
It sure seems as though the writing's on the wall. Fortunately for Jackie, Benintendi is stuck in his rut also. I'm not sure if putting the extra pressure of a more challenging position on Benintendi is really the best thing for him right now. He needs to focus on offense, not spend his time studying defensive skills, strategies, alignments etc. Do you think about putting Holt in center every now and then? At any rate, I don't think they will put up with much more than 3-4 more weeks of futility from JBJ. After that, Holt, JD, possibly Swihart and Nunez can all eat into his innings until they make a deal for an outfielder in July. Or they could try and shed $5 million off the books in order to get a half season of Rusney. But certainly not if he's still OPSing .750.
The club's hot start gives them time to figure this out. It is certainly discouraging to see that JBJ can't seem to reliably produce as a hitter, and when combined with the C position, it creates a hole at the bottom of the lineup. Yet for the time being, the team is winning in spite of it.
If JBJ continues to hit like this, he will be platooned more, and used a defensive replacement more. Then again, the weather will warm up, the season will progress, and it's quite possible that he will hit just enough to remove any doubt as to his worth.
If JBJ continues to hit like this, he will be platooned more, and used a defensive replacement more. Then again, the weather will warm up, the season will progress, and it's quite possible that he will hit just enough to remove any doubt as to his worth.
Given the LF and CF dimensions, Yankee Stadium is not one of the parks where you want JBJ on the bench, unless you're moving Betts over to CF. That is highly unlikely at this point.
I'd take my chances with the extra ~.500 points of OPS Moreland brings to the table and JDM in the OF.
Jackie is of course an elite CF and the defensive difference between him and everyone not named Benintendi and Betts on this team is indeed night and day. But his performance at the plate this season and for much of last season has been pathetic. Catcher is already a huge weak spot in the Sox line-up and it's tough for any offense to carry two of same. I've always thought that if Jackie could provide something on offense, that his D would offset whatever deficiencies existed. I no longer think that. There's just too much of a gap between what he is and the minimum acceptable level. Whatever metrics that show he's been victimized by bad luck etc. are in my view, metrics that overly complicate what is relatively simple. The maddening thing is that his hot streaks and performance at times show that he has it in him to be an adequate hitter and for whatever reason has not shown that in quite some time.
Based on the rumors over the years, I'm guessing that the Sox have explored trading him and have found the return to be wanting. Whether that's true or not, it's hard to think that he would bring a lot back now. If the Sox offense can't hide him well, then lesser line-ups would fare even worse. So they are in a very tough spot but the answer should not be to continue to play him and hope things change. Whether it's sitting him for a while in an attempt to right him, or moving him to the bench or elsewhere, they have to make a change.
Based on the rumors over the years, I'm guessing that the Sox have explored trading him and have found the return to be wanting. Whether that's true or not, it's hard to think that he would bring a lot back now. If the Sox offense can't hide him well, then lesser line-ups would fare even worse. So they are in a very tough spot but the answer should not be to continue to play him and hope things change. Whether it's sitting him for a while in an attempt to right him, or moving him to the bench or elsewhere, they have to make a change.
Betts did start one of the Toronto games in CF to give JBJ a day off and start JDM in RF.
My JBJ frustration goes beyond the numbers. I don’t see any attempts to tweak things - a smaller bat, a slight change in stance, improved bunting to provide some situational value...SOMEthing to show this isn’t be proverbial “definition of insanity” situation.
I recognize he could be doing a lot of studying and experimenting behind the scenes, but my eyes see a guy spinning the roulette wheel and hoping he hits his number next time.
Given his potential value as even an avg hitter, you’d hope he’s up for making material changes to an approach that clearly doesn’t work.
I recognize he could be doing a lot of studying and experimenting behind the scenes, but my eyes see a guy spinning the roulette wheel and hoping he hits his number next time.
Given his potential value as even an avg hitter, you’d hope he’s up for making material changes to an approach that clearly doesn’t work.
Baseball Prospectus addresses this very issue
http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/09/theres-little-projection-left-for-jbj-and-thats-okay/
JBJ's AB's are about as frustrating as watching Xander last half of 2017. Constantly missing the one pitch to hit and flailing away at everything else. Is Jackie so stubborn that he doesn't see how bad he is at the plate? To my untrained eye, he shown no inclination to just try & make contact, hit it where he's pitched, always swinging for the stands.
I really wanted JBJ to succeed. The defense is terrific but 2 black holes at the bottom of the lineup concerns me.
http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/09/theres-little-projection-left-for-jbj-and-thats-okay/
JBJ's AB's are about as frustrating as watching Xander last half of 2017. Constantly missing the one pitch to hit and flailing away at everything else. Is Jackie so stubborn that he doesn't see how bad he is at the plate? To my untrained eye, he shown no inclination to just try & make contact, hit it where he's pitched, always swinging for the stands.
I really wanted JBJ to succeed. The defense is terrific but 2 black holes at the bottom of the lineup concerns me.
He's still passable vs R but fell off a cliff this year vs lefties. Considering we have 2 other guys who can play CF, it shouldn't be too hard to find a bat if need be.
Probably not that simple. As a golfer, I'm fine taking a full swing with the driver and any of the other clubs. But if I'm less than a pitching wedge from the green and need to take something off, I muff the shot much more often. Jackie's probably been swinging that way all his life and it would be hard to "take something off". Try to go to left more, maybe. Probably. I'd love to be a fly on the batting cage when he's hitting in front of Tim Hyers and Cora though and hear what they say.
Considering it isn't actually a thing and just a myth, probably impossible to change.
Well, no, muscles do not have a "memory" but a swing gets honed over the years and I bet JBJ is reluctant to change what got him to the majors. How low does his production have to get before he realizes a change is needed?
So does that make the presumption that JBJ did not make adjustments after his abysmal showing in 2014 that led to his resurgence in late 2015 and a great 2016? That he just stubbornly plowed through with the exact same mechanics and approach then and things turned around for him anyway? In that case, I think we just wait him out until he gets hot again.
But seriously, I have to think he can make adjustments and/or changes to what got him to the majors, but it's not like it will happen overnight. He's probably working on anything they think will help "fix" him, but it's not as though even the right fix is something he can instantly apply and be accustomed to and repeat, especially if it is mechanics-related.
We've actually seen him change his swing since coming to the majors.
Or did I just hallucinate all that, with the leg kick and the nineteen moving parts he had. People documented the change in the hole in his swing and everything, in my recollection anyway...
It's hard to do so because it's really just an extended exposition on the fact that he's struggling and has been disasppointing.
Not a lot of hope, really. It was kind of a moribund piece to read.
Judicious (enough, I hope) excerpting:
For Jackie Bradley Jr., this is what bottom looked like.
With a runner on first and no outs in the top of the fifth inning Tuesday, Bradley received as meaty an offering as any Red Sox batter would see all night from Yankees ace Luis Severino. A straight, 99-mile-per-hour four-seamer flew right down the middle of the plate.
..............
Against the 1,021 four-seam fastballs that have flown through that center-cut location in two-strike counts this year, 97.1 percent inspired swings. Bradley was left to make the desolate march back to the dugout, in the company of that unfortunate 2.9 percent that declined to attack such an offering.
..............
“I’m not exactly sure what happened,” said Red Sox assistant hitting coach Andy Barkett. “I haven’t talked to him about that particular pitch, but he’s not off to a particularly great start. He’s showed signs of coming around. But tonight it seemed like on that particular pitch, he might have gotten mentally locked up a little bit.
“When you’re scuffling, sometimes you talk yourself into looking for certain things. Sometimes you have different thoughts that go through your brain. Sometimes it locks you up.”
......................
The Red Sox insist that some of Bradley’s struggles are attributable to bad luck, and that’s undoubtedly true; five of the six hardest-hit balls by Bradley (exit velocities of 99 m.p.h. or higher) during this stretch have resulted in outs. But there also has been a jarring number of times in which Bradley hasn’t made contact. His 43 percent strikeout rate since April 21 is the highest by a qualifying player in the big leagues.
“He’s working,” Cora said before the game. “Like I said last week, he keeps getting pitches that he can drive in the strike zone and he’s fouling them off. You can take it in different ways — he’s slumping or he’s very close. I’ll take it that he’s very close.
“This is a guy we trust. We’re going to keep putting him in the lineup, getting his at-bats.
.............................
Is there anything to suggest that Bradley can do that? Actually, yes.
At the start of this season, in 17 games preceding the Manaea no-hitter, Bradley was doing an impressive job of attacking strikes, walking six times and striking out just seven times in 69 plate appearances (10.1 percent strikeout rate).
..............................
Yet another slump may be even more relevant when considering Bradley’s current rut. In 2015, across a few trips from Triple A (where he spent most of the first half) through his first plate appearance (a strikeout) of an Aug. 6 game against CC Sabathia and the Yankees, Bradley went 5 for 50 with a .100/.217/.160 line and a 27 percent strikeout rate. Yet that day, he had a single against lefty reliever Justin Wilson and added walks against Sabathia and Andrew Miller.
A flood of hits soon followed. From Aug. 9 through Sept. 7, Bradley hit .446/.489/.952 with 24 extra-base hits in 25 games,
You're right, Rev, I completely forgot about the infamous Toe-Tap From Hell. At this point, I don't know what to say about Jackie except that I'm sure it's all Farrell's fault and he should be fired forthwith.
I forget to add that I was talking about the other guys on the roster that have the ability to play CF. I guess I can't assume that others here can read my mind (I can't even understand me sometimes). He's is one of the better defensive players in the game with the glove but that bat. Lots of great responses here and thinking.
In the words of Alex Cora "I trust the guy. I trust him, but we’ve got to sit down and talk, obviously."
And that brings us to where the Red Sox stand and the question that recessitated this thread remains:
Can JBJ's career in Boston be saved?
This better not be a segue into a crappy link about what they might be able get for trade from him.
Again.
For a start, let’s not see him bat against lefties. Let’s use him a) defensive replacement for JDM in winning games b) in games against weaker teams/weaker RHanded pitchers. Reward him for hitting to the left side, even outs. Punish him for letting fast balls down the middle go. Symbolic financial incentives - carrots and sticks.