JD 2.0

dhappy42

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JD Martinez is crushing it. I'd love to see him in a Sox uniform next year. JD - Beni - Mookie, left to right.

Nothing against JBJ, but as great a CF as he is, the lineup needs more power.
 

Lowrielicious

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JD Martinez is crushing it. I'd love to see him in a Sox uniform next year. JD - Beni - Mookie, left to right.

Nothing against JBJ, but as great a CF as he is, the lineup needs more power.
When healthy he is an absolute beast and I think he will get paid like one too, although he's no spring chicken at 30 and the health factor will ding the cost.
He only found his swing 4 seasons ago and has games played since then with WAR:
123 : 4.0
158 : 5.0
120 : 1.8
115 : 4.0

Needless to say none of that positive WAR comes in defense.

He's a pretty ideal DH with occasional fill in in the outfield. If not for Hanley taking that spot (-outfield, +1b) I would think sox would be all over him.
Hanley wouldn't get much in trade if anything.
I don't know that I'd want giving up and of the outfield gloves to put JD out there. I'm sure the pitching staffs wouldn't either.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I was clamoring for him at the trade deadline and instead he went to Arizona for next to nothing.

He is MURDERING lefties this year. It was a big miss not getting him at the deadline for a similar package. He would have made and enormous difference on this club.
 

crazybird1

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I think he is going to be the starting left fielder for the Sox next year. Even though it would be ideal to trade Hanley, I think he is unmovable. So I think JBJ is playing his final games with the Sox
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I think he is going to be the starting left fielder for the Sox next year. Even though it would be ideal to trade Hanley, I think he is unmovable. So I think JBJ is playing his final games with the Sox
I don't think they can afford Martinez unless they move at least some of Hanley's contact.
 

mauidano

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FWIW, J.D. has been pretty outspoken on how much he loves it there and wants to be with Arizona next year. The feelings are mutual. I guess it all comes down to dollars but it might be hard to pry him away from the desert.
 

NDame616

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FWIW, J.D. has been pretty outspoken on how much he loves it there and wants to be with Arizona next year. The feelings are mutual. I guess it all comes down to dollars but it might be hard to pry him away from the desert.
What do you expect him to say as the season wraps up? "Gee this place is a dump and I can't wait to go to the highest bidder this winter!"?
 

The Gray Eagle

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Why would you trade Bradley? If you sign Martinez, you let Moreland go and play Hanley at first, with Travis available when Hanley can't play first. If Hanley can't play first often enough, then he doesn't get enough at-bats to trigger his option.

We have a great outfield, where we need to upgrade is DH. Martinez isn't even a very good outfielder, he would be a huge improvement at DH though.
 

NDame616

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The Red Sox already have a $20M DH. I don't think they'd sign another one
 

nvalvo

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Why would you trade Bradley? If you sign Martinez, you let Moreland go and play Hanley at first, with Travis available when Hanley can't play first. If Hanley can't play first often enough, then he doesn't get enough at-bats to trigger his option.

We have a great outfield, where we need to upgrade is DH. Martinez isn't even a very good outfielder, he would be a huge improvement at DH though.
This is exactly right. Martinez should replace both Moreland and Chris Young, with Hanley playing first with Travis as his backup.

Martinez gets 120 games at DH and 30 in LF.

The Red Sox already have a $20M DH. I don't think they'd sign another one
With the structure of Hanley’s deal, it would be more accurate to say we can’t afford *not* to sign someone who will challenge him for playing time.

If he hits well enough to justify the playing time to vest the option, fine.
 

OurF'ingCity

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The Red Sox already have a $20M DH. I don't think they'd sign another one
Well, under the proposed scenario Hanley would be a $20m 1B - I think his defense was ok enough last year that this could work although he'll be two years older.

Or, heck, could Martinez play 1B? There's only so many times you want to do the converted-to-a-1B thing, but they could just try both Martinez and Hanley at 1B in Spring Training and see who did better.
 

MikeM

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Why would you trade Bradley? If you sign Martinez, you let Moreland go and play Hanley at first, with Travis available when Hanley can't play first. If Hanley can't play first often enough, then he doesn't get enough at-bats to trigger his option.

We have a great outfield, where we need to upgrade is DH. Martinez isn't even a very good outfielder, he would be a huge improvement at DH though.
Bradley goes there because it'll be deemed that the fairly massive offensive upgrade is worth the defense downgrade, and dropping $200m (or whatever) on a 30yo guy who's going to limit the overall flexibility coming out the gate over the next 6-7 years is probably the worst long term approach on the table.

I totally get the overwhelming appeal there if/when this offense falls on it's face again in the playoffs, but we also need to acknowledge the reality that JD Martinez is going to get stupid money from somebody this winter. Like Mike Stanton's contract doesn't look *as* crazy anymore stupid. If we aren't looking at Martinez as a guy who can reasonably hold down the LF spot for at least the next 4-5 years...we ultimately shouldn't even be looking at him imo.
 

RedOctober3829

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The guy who's been at or below replacement level 3 of the last 6 seasons? No thanks.
You're really going back to his age 22 season to judge where he is as a player now? He's coming into his prime years now and has had 2 really good offensive seasons over the last 3. Combine that with his 3 Gold Gloves over the last 4 seasons and he'd be who I'd want to have next year.
 

E5 Yaz

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You're really going back to his age 22 season to judge where he is as a player now? He's coming into his prime years now and has had 2 really good offensive seasons over the last 3. Combine that with his 3 Gold Gloves over the last 4 seasons and he'd be who I'd want to have next year.
You should have seen his hot take after Mike Schmidt's rookie year
 

RIrooter09

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You're really going back to his age 22 season to judge where he is as a player now? He's coming into his prime years now and has had 2 really good offensive seasons over the last 3. Combine that with his 3 Gold Gloves over the last 4 seasons and he'd be who I'd want to have next year.
Despite his gold gloves most evidence points to him being only an average defensive first baseman (below average range, good at scooping). You don't have to go back 6 seasons to find a bad offensive season, he OPS'd .751 last year and .716 in 2014. He's been good two of the past 4 seasons, and bad two of them. This year he's running a BABIP 37 points higher than his career average. No thanks.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-talk-about-eric-hosmers-defense/
 

Minneapolis Millers

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They could probably move Hanley if they subsidized him. And if they then let Moreland and Young go, they could replace them with JD Martinez and Travis, as suggested above. But imo they only do that if JD is taking an EE-type deal, say 4/80. They need to keep mot of the powder dry for their Killer B extensions...
 

nvalvo

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I think people in this thread are going to be surprised by how high payroll goes over the next two or three years.

The reason they held the line this season was to reset the penalties for the rest of our window.

Next year, they’ll have a stacked rotation, a young lineup core, and — with Smith healthy — likely a very good bullpen.

The *only* missing piece is a cleanup-type power bat, someone with legitimate 30+ HR power to put with Hanley and Devers in the middle of the order.

So you know Dombrowski is going to get *someone.* The only question IMO is whether we would prefer a LHH.
 

Lowrielicious

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I think people in this thread are going to be surprised by how high payroll goes over the next two or three years.

The reason they held the line this season was to reset the penalties for the rest of our window.

Next year, they’ll have a stacked rotation, a young lineup core, and — with Smith healthy — likely a very good bullpen.

The *only* missing piece is a cleanup-type power bat, someone with legitimate 30+ HR power to put with Hanley and Devers in the middle of the order.

So you know Dombrowski is going to get *someone.* The only question IMO is whether we would prefer a LHH.
I'm hoping you're right wrt payroll. That this was a reset year and the purse strings loosen during this window.

The questions with the bolded is (if we are only talking free agents) who would that be?
Duda and Bruce will be available. But their handedness doesn't cover the huge gap in offense to get anywhere near JD.
CarGo if he hadn't fallen off a cliff.
Old man Werth.
Not much else out there LHH.
 

MikeM

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I'd rather spend the cash on Eric Hosmer.
Agreed, at least in comparison to what JD Martinez's market is going to be looking like.

Although having the major bat upgrade come through an outfielder addition also potentially voids the easier pass you'd be giving Hanley at getting his option year vested. As in you could then send Hanley home for the winter with the full motivation that he'll have to be earning that as a full time 1st baseman that stays healthy in 2018, and that we'll instead be shopping more flexibly on the other end for a value type signing to plug into DH.
 

dhappy42

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If I understand Cot's correctly, the Red Sox have three free agents in 2018, Moreland, Young and Abad. That's $14 million in payroll, most of it from to players JD would replace and the rest from one that doesn't need replacing. If they were to trade JBJ for prospects, that's another $6 million freed up, minimum, depending on JBJ's arbitration and the OF salary. That's 20 mil. It might take $25 mil to land JD.

Is JD + Travis + 4th OF > JBJ + Moreland + Abad?
 

sean1562

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I think we need to upgrade this offense in some fashion. JD is one way, is there another? I think JBJ is a solid CF, but would an OF with benintendi in cf and JD in left be better for this team? Is JD a good permanent DH with Hanley/Travis 1b? Are we interested in any of the "lower tier" guys like Lucas Duda or jay Bruce?
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Given that last year's FA market did not result in the expected big deals for older one dimensional sluggers (the very definition of JD) its unlikely he will cost a fortune.

But I want no part of him in LF - leave the OF as is - it's arguably the best defensive OF in baseball - and should only improve offensively.

I'd sign him as a DH with Hanley back to first and Travis as backup. I'd also bring Nunez back as the supersub. I have been underwhelmed by Moreland's supposed strength - his defense. Having Travis as a defensive replacement also has the happy effect of limiting Hanley's plate appearences.


So

Incoming:
JD Martinez

Re-sign:
Nunez

Promote
Travis

Outgoing:

Moreland
Holt
Young

With a lineup up
rf: Betts
2b: Pedroia
lf: 10D
dh: JD Martinez
3b: Devers
1b: Hanley
ss: X
cf: Bradley
c: Vazquez

Bench:
Leon
Nunez
Travis
Marrero

Martinez acts as the default 4th OF

I think you need both Marrero and Nunez due to Pedroia's ongoing knee issues.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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If I understand Cot's correctly, the Red Sox have three free agents in 2018, Moreland, Young and Abad. That's $14 million in payroll, most of it from to players JD would replace and the rest from one that doesn't need replacing. If they were to trade JBJ for prospects, that's another $6 million freed up, minimum, depending on JBJ's arbitration and the OF salary. That's 20 mil. It might take $25 mil to land JD.

Is JD + Travis + 4th OF > JBJ + Moreland + Abad?
You also have to consider aav on those deals still on the books -
Which may or may not be higher/lower- and also factors in raises for all the arbitration guys.
 

MikeM

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Given that last year's FA market did not result in the expected big deals for older one dimensional sluggers (the very definition of JD) its unlikely he will cost a fortune.
JD Martinez just turned 30, plays a full time outfield (regardless whether it's a downgrade for our current team), had three .900'ish OPS seasons going in to this one, and is currently putting up a walk year slash line of .306/.380/.699 with 45 home runs. Nobody on last year's market, or in the recent markets before that, makes for an arguably good and even comp there. The guy has point blank positioned himself as the best hitter to hit free agency is quite some time, and a guy like that 100% isn't falling through any "the market just isn't there" cracks this winter.

He's the indisputable King Fish going in. Who's contract is going to completely blow the ones Cespedes/EE got last year away, and probably has a good chance of setting the new per/year salary bar on what positional players are making. *That* is the very definition of JD atm.

In fact and in a way this monster year was really a worse case scenario for our core hitter hunt imo, because even without the inflation value it's going to bring he would still of been a great fit here. That guy I might have made the pay the premium price argument on. The potential bar setting and 1.000ops+ guy plays out to be a different story though. As much as I'm willing to concede that this Killer B lineup core isn't going to cut it, Martinez just has too much of a sell your soul to the FA devil feel to it. Especially if/when he comes back down to earth in year 1. Combined with the back end of Price's deal that could also make for some really ugly times down the road.
 

nvalvo

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Let's think about what a deal for JDM would look like.

His 3-2-1 weighted three-year WAR is 4.0. Let's say we expect his age 30, 31 and 32 seasons to maintain that level, before decline sets in. It's hard for a DH (or bad defensive left fielder) to reach or exceed a 5 WAR threshold, as fans of David Ortiz are well aware: only David's '05, '06, and '07 prime seasons exceeded that level in a long and illustrious career. Martinez is bad enough in LF that his value stays basically flat, perhaps even improving by a few runs, with a move to DH.

So we expect something like an aging curve of 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, 1.5, age 30-37, for a total of 24.5 wins. That's "worth" something in the ballpark of $200m over 8 years in a market with an $8m win, depending on how the deal is structured.

There are enough candidates who might be shopping for a $200m DH/bad corner OF that I could see him reaching that level. It only really takes two.

The big-market candidates seem to be:
  • Arizona, obviously. But what is their payroll going forward?
  • Washington, post Werth. But should they save their money for Harper?
  • Toronto, post Bautista.
  • Texas is playing Delino Deshields Jr. in LF. But I can't really tell where they're taking that roster.
  • San Francisco needs power desperately. But after a terrible year, should they rebuild or reload?
  • Houston could use him in a LF/DH situation after Beltran.
  • Possibly LAD?
  • Us.
Did I leave anyone out? I think the AL teams and Washington make the most sense. Most of the other NL teams are set in the corner OF or are rebuilding.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I would want no part of an 8 year for a 30 year old late bloomer. (I seem to recall a Bill James study showing late bloomers tended to fade quicker - no link)

I would, however offer a 3/4 year deal at 25m per.

He looks a lot like EE to me. We shall see what kind of a market he will generate.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Clearly we need some power in the middle of the lineup and Hanley is unfortunately goin (g to occupy that DH spot (occasional 1B backup) next season. There's no way he's moving back to 1st either. Personally I don't want to downgrade the outfield defense and one could reasonably expect a better year next season for Betts and JBJ and even Benintendi (perhaps not much, but enough for them in aggregate to change the overall offensive side of the team).
I'm not sold on Devers as a 3rd baseman, but I think he deserves more time there to find out. Sam Travis doesn't seem quite up to the challenge of being an .800+ OPS 1B so his likely future is on another team in a minor trade this offseason, or more time as a AAAA replacement level guy.
I know CarGo hasn't had a great year but he's been heating up and I'm wondering if he could be had on a short term deal for a bargain price learning 1B and of course the occasional day in the field (Hanley plays first and other guys can get a breather by Nunez taking their spot).
There's not too many pure 1B available that are an outright major improvement over Mitchy so it seems the best route is to offer that role to a player on a short term deal.
 

sean1562

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The nationals do not need a werth replacement. Michael Taylor has been better in cf than JBJ this year and Adam Eaton returns next season from injury. No way they are in the jd market

Edit: also victor Robles, their top prospect and a top 5 mlb prospect, is a cf. no way they spend money on Martinez. They have tons of outfielders
 
Last edited:

crazybird1

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The issue is if not JD Martinez then who? Yeah he is going to be expensive, but do we really want to waste a year of sale and the last year of Pom and Kimbrel hoping the current players can take a step forward offensively? I think this is going to need yo be priority number one for DD
 

MikeM

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I would want no part of an 8 year for a 30 year old late bloomer. (I seem to recall a Bill James study showing late bloomers tended to fade quicker - no link)

I would, however offer a 3/4 year deal at 25m per.

He looks a lot like EE to me. We shall see what kind of a market he will generate.
If EE was 4+ years younger and had been a full time first baseman going in that market ends up playing out a lot different then it did.
 

nvalvo

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The nationals do not need a werth replacement. Michael Taylor has been better in cf than JBJ this year and Adam Eaton returns next season from injury. No way they are in the jd market

Edit: also victor Robles, their top prospect and a top 5 mlb prospect, is a cf. no way they spend money on Martinez. They have tons of outfielders
Thank you for the information. In that case, I think it’s much less likely that he gets $200m, and I’m much more excited about giving him a deal.
 

MikeM

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Thank you for the information. In that case, I think it’s much less likely that he gets $200m, and I’m much more excited about giving him a deal.
Your list isn't completely accounting for the possibility that Martinez's bat is both good and rare enough (from an availability standpoint) that a team doesn't necessarily have to have a pre-existing hole or spot open to be interested in adding a 169+ops bat to their lineup. Kinda like the Nationals a few years back when they didn't arguably "need" a Max Scherzer at the time either, but jumped in on him anyway.

Again, take a comparison look at all the other established big bats contracts signed in recent years by guys who weren't already pushing 35yo, and the #'s they were putting up. Even ball parking Cespedes' per/year $$$ at Justin "defensive metrics didn't like him either" Upton years puts you at 6/$165m. Which is likely being as conservative as you realistically can be there as well.
 

sean1562

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Your list isn't completely accounting for the possibility that Martinez's bat is both good and rare enough (from an availability standpoint) that a team doesn't necessarily have to have a pre-existing hole or spot open to be interested in adding a 169+ops bat to their lineup..

Like the Red Sox? Could the yanks use him in the same capacity? The diamondbacks do make a lot of sense.

Does anyone think Justin upton opts out? I want no part of that but maybe the angels make a jd push? Hamilton is off the books after this season. And they need to be competitive soon if they want any chance of retaining trout
 

MikeM

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Does anyone think Justin upton opts out? I want no part of that but maybe the angels make a jd push? Hamilton is off the books after this season. And they need to be competitive soon if they want any chance of retaining trout
I'd guess Upton opts out, but buying into his walk year is probably even riskier overall then JD imo.

I personally don't trust him enough at this point not to essentially end up being Hanley Ramirez v2.
 

nvalvo

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Your list isn't completely accounting for the possibility that Martinez's bat is both good and rare enough (from an availability standpoint) that a team doesn't necessarily have to have a pre-existing hole or spot open to be interested in adding a 169+ops bat to their lineup. Kinda like the Nationals a few years back when they didn't arguably "need" a Max Scherzer at the time either, but jumped in on him anyway.

Again, take a comparison look at all the other established big bats contracts signed in recent years by guys who weren't already pushing 35yo, and the #'s they were putting up. Even ball parking Cespedes' per/year $$$ at Justin "defensive metrics didn't like him either" Upton years puts you at 6/$165m. Which is likely being as conservative as you realistically can be there as well.
I was thinking that the Upton deal is a good comp, actually. Martinez is the better hitter, but Upton had better pedigree, a longer track record, and was two years younger at FA, so a six-year deal only extended through his age 34 season.

edited to clarify: but if we have multiple big-market suitors, it will certainly be more expensive.
 

Idabomb333

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Given that last year's FA market did not result in the expected big deals for older one dimensional sluggers (the very definition of JD) its unlikely he will cost a fortune.

But I want no part of him in LF - leave the OF as is - it's arguably the best defensive OF in baseball - and should only improve offensively.

I'd sign him as a DH with Hanley back to first and Travis as backup. I'd also bring Nunez back as the supersub. I have been underwhelmed by Moreland's supposed strength - his defense. Having Travis as a defensive replacement also has the happy effect of limiting Hanley's plate appearences.


So

Incoming:
JD Martinez

Re-sign:
Nunez

Promote
Travis

Outgoing:

Moreland
Holt
Young

With a lineup up
rf: Betts
2b: Pedroia
lf: 10D
dh: JD Martinez
3b: Devers
1b: Hanley
ss: X
cf: Bradley
c: Vazquez

Bench:
Leon
Nunez
Travis
Marrero

Martinez acts as the default 4th OF

I think you need both Marrero and Nunez due to Pedroia's ongoing knee issues.
I don't know enough about Martinez to feel strongly about most any points in this thread, and I think you have some decent points in this post, but there's a glaring hole here. Has anyone ever gone into a season with the plan that the normal 4-man bench includes no one who plays the outfield? Having your DH be the only legit backup for 3 positions is going to mean a weirdly large # of games where you lose the DH, and/or too many games where you put an emergency player in the outfield who has no business being there. Generally I see 2 bench players who can play in the outfield, at least one of whom also has another position. Right? Are you expecting Nunez or Travis or Marrero to pick up significant outfield time?
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I don't know enough about Martinez to feel strongly about most any points in this thread, and I think you have some decent points in this post, but there's a glaring hole here. Has anyone ever gone into a season with the plan that the normal 4-man bench includes no one who plays the outfield? Having your DH be the only legit backup for 3 positions is going to mean a weirdly large # of games where you lose the DH, and/or too many games where you put an emergency player in the outfield who has no business being there. Generally I see 2 bench players who can play in the outfield, at least one of whom also has another position. Right? Are you expecting Nunez or Travis or Marrero to pick up significant outfield time?
I think I viewed Nunez as the the de facto 4th OF .. I believe he has OF experience. If they resign him I could see him getting 400 ABs without having a regular position.