As someone noted they would if they traded Holt which seems like an absolute certainty after bringing Nunez back.
JDM is signed-5 years, 110 mil
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Because that would create a second DH slot in the lineup? Dickerson has never played anything but OF or DH. They have more than enough coverage at any position he can play, which also roster wise overlaps to 1B. The 3 Bs, Hanley, Moreland and JDM can easily cover the OF and 1B, roster them through DH. They aren’t paying that much money for injury insurance and otherwise there’s no place for him.
Yes, but for a much lower amount of money than was expected.
Risk doesn't complete the economic analysis; even when we talk net present value, the amount of the deal and not just the the risk applies (obviously).
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If you had told me in October that they were getting this guy for only this money I would have been quite pleased. I am completely gun shy on FA signings but they have invested a lot in making a run the next couple of years and this was the best option available to round out the team: you really don't want a 2003 scenario where you build the really good team except for one important piece. This is a very different signing than Pablo or Hanley, who needed to maintain or improve their performance from the previous year to be worth the money. Even if Martinez is the 900 OPS version of JDM instead of the 1100 OPS JDM he substantially helps the team in 2018/19.
Giancarlo Stanton and J.D. Martinez Since 2014:
Stanton - .366 OBP, .573 SLG, 149 wRC+, 2,118 PA
Martinez - .362 OBP, .574 SLG, 148 wRC+, 2,143 PA
Stanton - .366 OBP, .573 SLG, 149 wRC+, 2,118 PA
Martinez - .362 OBP, .574 SLG, 148 wRC+, 2,143 PA
In a way, this scenario seems lovely if everyone's good with it. Maybe under Cora they are.
I don't know though. Until he tweets or says otherwise, I still imagine there's a chance Hanley would rather enter free agency a full-time player, even if it's a foregone conclusion he won't trigger the option with JDM in town. He seems super motivated with the Brady diet and statements about wanting to play "ten more years" and "150-158 games" at first. Can't tell if the subtext there is "I'm pumped for the season!" or "I'm a full-time player!" but I could see it going either way. Finding another home for him frees up PAs for Swihart, who we need to expose, and to a lesser extent Brentz. And Nunez once Pedroia returns.
I haven't watched him play there with my own eyes, but Nunez has quite high UZR rates in left. I could also see a post-Hanley scenario where we protect JDM from the monster and Nunez takes those LF at-bats after Pedroia returns, and the guys we need to establish as major leaguers playing more substantial roles. Like this (Holt and Leon are gone):
DH: Martinez 650 PA
C: Vazquez 450 PA, Swihart 250 PA
1B: Moreland 550 PA, Nunez/Travis 150 PA
2B: Pedroia 400 PA, Nunez 200 PA, Swihart 100 PA
3B: Devers 600 PA, Nunez/Marrero 100 PA
SS: Bogaerts 650 PA, Nunez/Lin/Marrero 50 PA
LF: Benintendi 500 PA, Nunez 100 PA, Swihart/Brentz/Martinez 100 PA
CF: Bradley 600 PA, Benintendi 100 PA
RF: Betts 700
Happy to eat the appropriate crow if the Sox play 2018 with a happy and productive Hanley contributing as the 10th man. He's so fun to root for when he's on.
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He played a little 1B in rookie ball and low-A in 2009 in his first professional season. That's it.
All in all, this is about as good of a deal as they could have gotten to sign him. If he doesn't hit in the next two years, though, it will be like extending the Hanley/Pablo problem another 3 years.
I don't think he's going to hit as well as some expect, but it should be good enough to justify the first two years. I think leaving the desert for Fenway is going to hurt him more than we think (for his bat, not referring to chemistry or fan relations or any of that).
I don’t post in this forum, but I’m freakin’ pumped by this addition. This is the major bat the Red Sox lacked the previous year and needed this season to have a legit change at contending. If JD mashes for 2 years and opts out, who cares? Combined with the Nunez signing, the offensive bump this team has received within the last few days is exciting. I can’t wait for this season to start.
Any indications about what type of locker room presence he is? Is he a outspoken leader or tend to be more introverted??
I'll admit, I never would have guessed that Dombrowski had the patience to wait out a scenario like this, after his willingness to pay whatever it took in prospects for Kimbrel and Sale and in cash for Price. Love, love, love this deal, opt outs included. Maximize the window we have through 2019 and see what we get. I knew I'd be excited if they signed JDM, but I find myself surprisingly giddy about this upcoming season. Bring it on.
Wow, I'd think you could win a lot of bar bets with those numbers. I'm sure casual fans (and probably some not so causal fans) would have no idea they're so close.
DD really waited out Boras beautifully. Took advantage of a soft market to grab Nunez. Terrific job. Might even still pluck a left handed reliever yet still.
I don't have anything to directly quote, but I know I've seen posts here and stuff in articles about him being well liked and respected. If this is true I think adding a guy with the skills to back himself up, be older than the core but still young enough to relate to them will be a huge plus on the clubhouse
DD literally said after the winter meetings "we are going to have to be patient". He was and it works out beautifully.
Yeah, not Dombrowski's usual m.o. Considering how the Sox ownership feels about Boras. You have to wonder how much autonomy he had in this particular situation.
This has to be one of or the biggest Boras loss right? The market is obviously the market, but I don't recall such an extreme example of rumored asking price vs what was eventually settled on before.
Seems like teams can try to use this strategy now - not on the headliners next year, but the mid tier guys.
Also - an article on JDM and his clubhouse reputation. Looks like exactly what they need.
http://www.weei.com/articles/column/bradford-youre-really-going-want-jd-martinez-after-reading
Seems like teams can try to use this strategy now - not on the headliners next year, but the mid tier guys.
Also - an article on JDM and his clubhouse reputation. Looks like exactly what they need.
http://www.weei.com/articles/column/bradford-youre-really-going-want-jd-martinez-after-reading
And Martinez’s hyperbolic performance last year wasn’t a single-season anomaly; since 2014, when Martinez first emerged in Detroit, he’s ranked among the league’s best hitters. Only Mike Trout has a higher slugging percentage than Martinez’s .574 in that span, and only Trout, Votto, and Giancarlo Stanton (barely) have a better overall batting line by wRC+, which adjusts for a player’s home ballpark and league context.
By way of further comparison, Martinez’s rate stats are nearly identical to Stanton’s through the last four years, meaning Boston adds a like-for-like complement to its biggest rival’s biggest offseason acquisition.
Stanton walks more and is a tad more fond of homers, but Martinez’s overall production mirrors Stanton’s, and last year, even with the former Marlin winning MVP honors and crushing 59 homers, Martinez actually owned the superior batting line. Of course, Stanton is two years younger than Martinez, and he’s a better baserunner and defender, but Boston isn’t paying Martinez Stanton money or surrendering any prospects in a trade. And with their outfield already full of two-way talents in Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Andrew Benintendi, the Sox can afford to place Martinez in the DH spot and let the homers and Green Monster doubles commence.
https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/2/19/17030124/boston-red-sox-sign-jd-martinez
By way of further comparison, Martinez’s rate stats are nearly identical to Stanton’s through the last four years, meaning Boston adds a like-for-like complement to its biggest rival’s biggest offseason acquisition.
Stanton walks more and is a tad more fond of homers, but Martinez’s overall production mirrors Stanton’s, and last year, even with the former Marlin winning MVP honors and crushing 59 homers, Martinez actually owned the superior batting line. Of course, Stanton is two years younger than Martinez, and he’s a better baserunner and defender, but Boston isn’t paying Martinez Stanton money or surrendering any prospects in a trade. And with their outfield already full of two-way talents in Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Andrew Benintendi, the Sox can afford to place Martinez in the DH spot and let the homers and Green Monster doubles commence.
https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/2/19/17030124/boston-red-sox-sign-jd-martinez
You said it better than I could hope too. All of a sudden I went from "Oh, Truck Day was lat week?" to "Man, I can't wait for the season to start."
Stanton also hits infield pops more than twice as much as JDM. Would be nice to not lead the league in that category again this year.
Whether you wanted him or not, I think the one aspect that has been getting somewhat lost in all this dollar value evaluation is just how good and generally rare a FA hitter acquisition JDM really is.
The Bryce Harpers of the world are hardly ever upcoming in the prime free agents, and it's not likely that DD was going to have a do-over option of equal caliber (at least without them being on the notably older side) in the event he passed this one up.
Absolutely. He saved a tiny bit of face in the end with the opt outs, but I think this and a shifting market will certainly serve as a potential blow to his future "I'm definitely going to drop my agent and pick up Boras heading into FA" appeal.
There isn't a whole lot to dislike about this deal. I wasn't all-in on Martinez, since 1) I think the team was well-enough-constructed without him to compete and 2) paying a DH $25M+/yr is not the best use of resources. However, he's obviously a top flight hitter and makes the lineup considerably better. I think any of us would have wanted to sign him in a heartbeat for 2/$50 or 5/$110; the concern was always with a long, expensive deal for a 30yo DH. This is neither, even considering this offseason's depressed market for hitters. We don't know what JDM/Boras originally asked for. We do know they publicly floated 7/$210M. And the consensus was somewhere around 6/$150M was realistic. The notion that the Sox/DD "blinked" is silly. Negotiations are just that: one party aims high, the other aims low, and they meet somewhere between. Where this ended up is certainly a lot closer to where the Sox started, even with any consideration of opt-outs.
Speaking of...without completely rehashing a discussion of them, the opt-outs shift risk from the player to the team, yes. But even if JDM mashes for 2 (or 3) years and opts out, that doesn't necessarily mean the Sox would want to keep him at the remaining 3/$60. Just because he can get more money in FA doesn't mean he should as a 32yo DH or that the Sox should be the ones to give it to him, considering what the roster/payroll/window will look like then. If he does underperform or start to decline, there's no current indication that we expect it to be precipitous enough that a 5/$110M deal today isn't a really good deal. It's a pretty far fall (though not out of the realm of possibility) over the next few years for him to get into territory similar to where Hanley is today. He'll also be making a couple million dollars less at that point than Hanley does now.
The biggest downside for me is that we don't get to witness what the non-JDM lineup would do in 2018. There's been so much discussion of whether 2017 was a product of natural variation and the majority of guys will bounce back in 2018; I was looking forward to seeing how our thought experiments and arguments played themselves out this season. With the re-insertion of a big bat into the lineup, we don't get to find out if 2017's offensive regression was simply a down year or maybe had more to do with the loss of Ortiz. And on a lesser note, I was also looking forward to getting to see Bryce Brentz get a shot. Here's to hoping we can get a lottery ticket for him. I fully (and irrationally) expect him to go be a 2-3 WAR player for someone for peanuts.
Speaking of...without completely rehashing a discussion of them, the opt-outs shift risk from the player to the team, yes. But even if JDM mashes for 2 (or 3) years and opts out, that doesn't necessarily mean the Sox would want to keep him at the remaining 3/$60. Just because he can get more money in FA doesn't mean he should as a 32yo DH or that the Sox should be the ones to give it to him, considering what the roster/payroll/window will look like then. If he does underperform or start to decline, there's no current indication that we expect it to be precipitous enough that a 5/$110M deal today isn't a really good deal. It's a pretty far fall (though not out of the realm of possibility) over the next few years for him to get into territory similar to where Hanley is today. He'll also be making a couple million dollars less at that point than Hanley does now.
The biggest downside for me is that we don't get to witness what the non-JDM lineup would do in 2018. There's been so much discussion of whether 2017 was a product of natural variation and the majority of guys will bounce back in 2018; I was looking forward to seeing how our thought experiments and arguments played themselves out this season. With the re-insertion of a big bat into the lineup, we don't get to find out if 2017's offensive regression was simply a down year or maybe had more to do with the loss of Ortiz. And on a lesser note, I was also looking forward to getting to see Bryce Brentz get a shot. Here's to hoping we can get a lottery ticket for him. I fully (and irrationally) expect him to go be a 2-3 WAR player for someone for peanuts.
Yeah, that was my thinking. I know he has innngs there. He’s not a Swiss Army knife like Holt in the field, but in a big symmetrical outfield like Toronto or Anaheim or whatever, you could move Mookie to center in a pinch. Maybe Lin is better. Not enough reps to know for sure, but if Holt is gone, with two first baseman and a new $25m DH/average outfielder, Nunez is probably going to end the year with innings at five positions.
Some other notes on Martinez.
--Career numbers pulling the ball(540 PA): .454./452/.814(!!!) (1.266 OPS!!) 41 HR 123 RBI
--High leverage career stats: 675 PAs .256/.320/.492 35 HRs 181 RBI(highest total of all 3 leverage levels)
--Career Fenway numbers(29 PAs) 12-for-29 with 0 HRs .444/.483/.519
--Career numbers at AL East parks:
Yankee Stadium(41 PAs) 13-for-39 with 3 HRs .333/.366/.615 (career .902 OPS against the Yankees in 90 PA)
Camden Yards(41 PAs) 9-for-34 with 3 HRs .265/.319/.618
Rogers Center(25 PAs) 7-for-25 with 0 HRs .280/.280/.440
Tropicana Field(36 PAs) 9-for-35 with 1 HR .257/.278/.400
--Career numbers pulling the ball(540 PA): .454./452/.814(!!!) (1.266 OPS!!) 41 HR 123 RBI
--High leverage career stats: 675 PAs .256/.320/.492 35 HRs 181 RBI(highest total of all 3 leverage levels)
--Career Fenway numbers(29 PAs) 12-for-29 with 0 HRs .444/.483/.519
--Career numbers at AL East parks:
Yankee Stadium(41 PAs) 13-for-39 with 3 HRs .333/.366/.615 (career .902 OPS against the Yankees in 90 PA)
Camden Yards(41 PAs) 9-for-34 with 3 HRs .265/.319/.618
Rogers Center(25 PAs) 7-for-25 with 0 HRs .280/.280/.440
Tropicana Field(36 PAs) 9-for-35 with 1 HR .257/.278/.400
Let me introduce you to a thread called "Red Sox Interested in Signing Kevin Millar."
There is a lot not to like.
The Sox just handed $110 million to a 30-year old who figures to be a DH moving forward and has played more than 125 games in a season exactly once. And if he exceeds expectations, he’ll opt out after 2 years — so we don’t get the upside if JDM’s aging curve ends up looking like Dwight Evans’s, but we own the downside if his production falls off a cliff.
This looks like a deal done by a GM who felt he had to do something. Would’ve much rather seen him keep his powder dry.
Just a bit of wondering out loud on my part. But Dombrowski did a great job. The Sox and Martinez both looks like winners in the deal.
To keep it dry for what though? Theres not a lot left in the farm system to trade with, so it would have to be to take on salary in addition to players. Or do you mean one of the big time FAs next year and roll with what we already have this year ?
I know its front-loaded, but there won't necessarily be a lot of suitors for JD in 2 or 3 years either. Even if he does produce, he may be a little gun shy in shopping his services again. And even if he does there will be pick compensation attached.
I’m saying roll with what they’ve got.
JDM and Price are likely to be tying up north of $50 million in payroll when it comes time to make decisions on Sale, Betts, and Bogaerts. You might accept that if you had a terrific chance to win a title in the next couple of years, but I don’t think that’s the case — the MFY looked like a solid preseason favorite heading into the offseason, and they have only widened the gap (Stanton >>> JDM, obviously).
I’m afraid we’re going to be watching a terrible baseball team in the 2020s because DD decided to push his chips into the center of the table (or was told to do so by ownership), and I doubt we’re going to have a pennant to show for it.
Is this like talk radio where something pretty great happens and yet there's always that one guy who has to be the contrarian? I'm having trouble squaring this:
with this:
Why is a team with Sale, Betts and Bogaerts (and Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Devers, etc.) not worth improving in 2018-19, just so we can be sure to re-sign those guys when they're two years older, with no obvious studs coming along in the farm system to add to them?
go read some comparisons again (in this very thread, even) and get back to me on this.
With the possible exception of Kopech, which prospect did DD trade that would have extended the window? Moncada could obviously turn out well, but he wasn’t exactly promising this year and there wasn’t a place for the rest. Please don’t even mention Travis Shaw.
Curious if our Yankee fans here would rather have Stanton or JDM with their respective contracts - not trolling just wondering.
Most of us are resigned to the fact that the team has a two year window with this roster. By 2020 they will have 64 million in commitments and half that if Price has opted out. His salary after the 2019 season will be pretty irrelevant. Particularly if Mookie and Sale walk and the team is fully rebuilding. If they are awesome he may want to stay anyhow. And how much more would he really make as a 32 year old DH?
I would just counter that he is much more likely to stay healthy as a DH and it may preserve his elite bat longer.
Most of us are resigned to the fact that the team has a two year window with this roster. By 2020 they will have 64 million in commitments and half that if Price has opted out. His salary after the 2019 season will be pretty irrelevant. Particularly if Mookie and Sale walk and the team is fully rebuilding. If they are awesome he may want to stay anyhow. And how much more would he really make as a 32 year old DH?
No, ‘most of us’ are not resigned to that. The pessimists are. Jesus shit, they’ve won 93 games the last two seasons and have a very young roster. I have no idea why people are so quick to say it’s all going to crumble so quickly.
I take the opposite view. Chances are for the next two years he'll be terrific allowing the team to be a top tier hitting team thus optimizing all the prior moves made of selling off the farm in order to win now. And if he stays beyond year 2, there are chances that his decline in year will still mean he is a superior hitter. The point is, his decline (especially in year 3) can still be very good. And that It's not etched in stone as he declines it means at 33 or 34 he will stink. And with years 4 and 5 as reset years, blowing past whatever threshold there will be won't be much of an issue.
And imo the injury issue is overstated. He'll be a primary DH.
JDM just "fixed" the hitting issue unless anyone thinks every other player will remain at their 2017numbers vice 2016. Now it comes down to if the pitchers can perform. This will have little to do with JDM.
Well neither of us can predict the future and of course they could be good in 2020, but don't you think their best shot is now until then given they have the best closer in the game (for a year) and two Cy Young candidates and an MVP candidate while those players are on the team?
There is no guarantee any of the core stays after that. Add to that they have a bottom 10 farm system, probably not getting top 10 picks, nor prime free agent over that span and the evidence is that a downturn could be coming.
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ZiPS projections for JDM (courtesy of Dan Szymborski)
Has him worth 52 million over the next 2 years, 74 over 3, and 104 over 5. Pretty much in line with the contract.
Has him worth 52 million over the next 2 years, 74 over 3, and 104 over 5. Pretty much in line with the contract.
There’s never any guarantees and with Hanley and Pablo dropping off, they can afford to retain some of that core and once you get in the dance, anything happens. Did 2013 honestly not teach you anything?
Farm systems can turn around quickly - positively or negatively; performances vary over such a long season; teams on paper mean shit. This isn’t a ‘Pats with TB12’ or ‘Cavs with Lebron’ window. That’s not this situation. They have plenty of talent to stay competitive.
I’m sorry, I don’t mean to unload on you but it’s really fucking frustrating on this board to read about how this team is going to be in the doldrums in two years. There is a shit ton of moving parts to this game and they have a lot of great pieces in place, far more than a lot of teams and plenty of avenues to be a contender for a long time. This isn’t the NBA where you can pencil in the legit title contenders years ahead of time.
I'm not a game threading pessimist.I have always been enthused with the future of the team since Theo took over. I can't recall a season where I didn't think they had a shot. I thought both last place finishes were flukey because so many previously great players had down years. I think this may be the most talented team they have ever had and fully intend to enjoy every game.
Overall though for the above reasons and with the Yankees improving while still having a very good farm system and still payroll space with bad contracts ending - it's a bit tough to see them atop the standings in a few years, I'll even toss in a "Bryce Harper won't automatically sign with the Yankees" peace offering, but really, I'm just trying to be realistic with the information we have now.
Let's revisit this in 2020 and enjoy the ride.
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