JDM

Status
Not open for further replies.

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,675
I can see how this strategy makes sense for a team that isn't near the luxury tax threshold right now and/or isn't trying to win right now. Bloat your payroll with some dead or moribund weight for a few years, with the payoff coming later when the prospects the bad contract was attached to hit their prime. But that's nothing like the Red Sox' current situation. They're trying to win now, so any large contract liabilities they take on now should be highly productive in the short term (with an accepted, inevitable risk that the production nosedives down the line). Shouldn't they?
Certainly some contracts would cripple the team in the future (and definitely so if JDM signs). But if a rebuilding team wants to get out from under one- or maybe two-year deal, there are possibilities.

Guys that come to mind are Jason Hammel, V-Mart, Jose Iglesias, Kazmir, Brandon Moss, Mesoraco, Pence, McCarthy, Grandal, Forsythe, Ryu, Volquez, Arruebarrena, etc. We don’t have use for a lot of those guys, but if assuming them gets us even a modest prospect, I’d rather DD do that than hover at a $225M salary.

The Royals and Tigers in particular are both race-to-the-bottom teams with a good amount of debt, and the Dodgers might wanna get creative in dumping salary to sign Darvish. The prizes there—and sorry to keep banging this drum—are Castellanos and Duffy. Castellanos is a terrific alternative to JDM, far better than any FA. If there’s a scenario where we absorb V-Mart to get him, we should explore that.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,656
Rogers Park
The Royals and Tigers in particular are both race-to-the-bottom teams with a good amount of debt, and the Dodgers might wanna get creative in dumping salary to sign Darvish. The prizes there—and sorry to keep banging this drum—are Castellanos and Duffy. Castellanos is a terrific alternative to JDM, far better than any FA. If there’s a scenario where we absorb V-Mart to get him, we should explore that.
Speaking of those Tigers... by July we might also know a lot more about the status of Miguel Cabrera's decline: whether he is totally cooked, or was just affected by his injuries.

JDM is plan A by a mile, and a plan I still believe will be realized. But there are other options. JDM himself was just a cheap mid-season acquisition.
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,109
Florida
I think this is where the long wait hurts both JDM and Boras. It's not that hard for a player to "justify" taking what many believe to be a lower offer from a particular team when the player and agent can reasonably spin it as being done for non-monetary reasons (the "hometown" discount, the always-wanted-to-play-for-X discount, etc.) JDM could have done that with AZ... IF he had signed 2-3 months ago, like Upton did with LAAA.

But now? What would be Boras' explanation for why JDM took a lesser offer from AZ than he got from Boston, 3+ months into free agency? Because JDM always wanted to re-sign with AZ? That doesn't wash. The narrative will be that Boras grossly overplayed his hand and lost control of the negotiations. That doesn't attract more clients, so it's certainly NOT a result that Boras wants. At all. JDM could still do it, out of petulance or whatever. But it would certainly make Boras look bad.

So the only way BOS is likely to lose out in this is if AZ gets really close to BOS's offer and/or offers something particularly unusual. Since AZ is already at a franchise high payroll, I'm having a hard time believing that they'll go an extra $22-25M+ to add the all-bat, no-glove JDM. The guesses to date have been that AZ hasn't made competitive offers to JDM yet, even though they would like to keep him, because they need to shed significant salary first. That hasn't happened. And doesn't look very likely...
The narrative Boras will spin on a shorter term deal centered around an early opt out will indeed be that Arizona was the place JDM most wanted to play. Which would ideally come with a notable per/salary he could then emphasize as being better then what other players are getting. You'll point to the total money not being there. He'll point to finger at a shady market, where he still walked out getting his client top per/year dollars, a large amount of player driven security, and the still open possibility to get paid what he deserves down the line.

You are right in that it isn't going to make for the best wash, but make no mistake in weighing the alternative outcome possibilities there. The hardest stain of all to get out and which ultimately hurts Boras and his brand the most (by far) here would be total surrender to the Sox on some predetermined value offer they've had sitting out there for months. Losing a much bigger battle in the war then he did with Drew is one thing, and obviously bad in it's own right, but now you are talking a pulling the curtain aside and exposing Oz level of bad. Boras' entire appeal as an agent is essentially built on the surrounding belief that he's the pitbull that would never do that.

As long as Boras has JDM's ear this whole "let's just wait for him to take our offer" strategy isn't going to end up with JDM in Boston.
 

koufax32

He'll cry if he wants to...
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2006
9,106
Duval

According to an industry source the Red Sox offer to JD Martinez has been 5 years and $110 million . It was reported at $125 mil. Scott Boras would not comment when I asked him about it.

Uh oh, the patented Red Sox We Tried Leak
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569

According to an industry source the Red Sox offer to JD Martinez has been 5 years and $110 million . It was reported at $125 mil. Scott Boras would not comment when I asked him about it.
Well, if it’s true then you can see why JDM’s pissed and hasn’t signed. He was hoping to get $100MM more than the best offer.

That isn’t chump change. It’s basically half his self-valuation.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,851
Maine
Well, if it’s true then you can see why JDM’s pissed and hasn’t signed. He was hoping to get $100MM more than the best offer.

That isn’t chump change. It’s basically half his self-valuation.
Considering how many different figures we've now seen attached to the Red Sox' 5-year offer, I think we should take them all with a grain of salt. Obviously, whatever the number is, it isn't what Martinez was looking for at the start of the winter or he'd be signed by now. But if whatever it is in indeed the biggest offer he's seen, then the only person he should be pissed at is himself (or Boras) for totally misreading his market. The Red Sox nor any other team should be under any obligation to make sure their best offer is anywhere near the player's desired salary if they're the highest bidder or even the only bidder for his services.
 

One Red Seat

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 30, 2003
1,223
Guilderland, NY
“Well, if it’s true then you can see why JDM’s pissed and hasn’t signed. He was hoping to get $100MM more than the best offer.

That isn’t chump change. It’s basically half his self-valuation”


Understood but, why direct that anger towards the team giving you the best offer? Shouldn’t his anger be directed at the other teams not stepping up to the plate. Instead he is “fed up” with the Sox for not sweetening what is reportedly already the best offer? That is just dumb. I believe it may be true that he is pissed at Sox but, that just makes him the dummy.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
Understood but, why direct that anger towards the team giving you the best offer? Shouldn’t his anger be directed at the other teams not stepping up to the plate. Instead he is “fed up” with the Sox for not sweetening what is reportedly already the best offer? That is just dumb. I believe it may be true that he is pissed at Sox but, that just makes him the dummy.
No, that makes him human.

JDM was one of the top, what? 10-15 people in the world last season at hitting the snot out of a baseball. That kind of accomplishment is both enabled by, and further encourages, the development of an unassailable ego, even to the point of hubris.

And yet, the Red Sox are offering to pay him only slightly more per year than they will be paying the tub of goo that used to be Pablo Sandoval.

IMO, and YMMV, people have an astounding ability to externalize disappointment. And honestly, that trait is exactly what I want to see in a power hitter on the Red Sox. The person who can strike out 6 times in a row and still toe up to the plate in his next plate appearance with a plan to murderize the next fat pitch? And who’s angry at the umps and pitchers who robbed him, rather than at himself for striking out or guessing wrong?

That’s not a problem, it’s perfect!
 
Last edited:

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,426
Understood but, why direct that anger towards the team giving you the best offer? Shouldn’t his anger be directed at the other teams not stepping up to the plate. Instead he is “fed up” with the Sox for not sweetening what is reportedly already the best offer? That is just dumb. I believe it may be true that he is pissed at Sox but, that just makes him the dummy.
In fairness, we don't know his side of the negotiation. If he/Boras are coming back with something like 5/$120, I can see why he'd be annoyed that DD wouldn't just go with it.

I doubt that's what's happening, but, again, the point is we don't know.
 

In my lifetime

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
959
Connecticut
I am still a little puzzled. If the 5/125 MM RS offer as reported is accurate, it doesn't make much sense to me that JDM hasn't signed. Ignoring talk of a slight market correction, just how much upside $ is there for JDM.

So JDM's contract would be tied for 5th most in the history of baseball for a position player. It just makes me wonder if the 5/125 MM offer is not overstated. How much more is JDM realistically going to get this year? And to take a shorter term contract makes no sense considering his age and the outstanding year he just put up.
Now with the new information that the offer may have been 5/110MM, the delay in signing makes a lot more sense. As I suspected, JDM not signing a 5/125 MM offer just didn't seem realistic on JDM/Boras end (turning down the 5th highest AAV contract ever by a position player who adds no value in the field). There is still no way he takes a 1 yr contract as that has a very large chance to cost him more money over the 5 years and I am sure he could always talk a team into a 1-2 yr opt out, which would protect him in case of injury or down year.
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member

According to an industry source the Red Sox offer to JD Martinez has been 5 years and $110 million . It was reported at $125 mil. Scott Boras would not comment when I asked him about it.
Scott Boras's assistant, standing right next to Scott Boras: "The Red Sox have only offered $110M/ 5 yrs."
Bruce Levine: "Scott, is this true?"
Scott Boras: "I can't comment on that."

The lack of leaks up until this week (from any MLB front office, really) has been astounding; that we're getting lots of commentary after the Superbowl right before pitchers and catchers report, indicates that this needs to get done and both sides know it.

I could see the Sox having a $125M/ 5 yr deal on the table, someone leaking that it's only $110, then everyone saves face when JDM signs for $125M.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,417
Although the Boston Red Sox have been seen as the main competitor to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the J.D. Martinez derby, for now the bigger threat could be a holdout (or at least a decision by Martinez to remain unsigned).

With two teams believed to be at very similar levels – word is, both have signaled a willingness to go to five years at more than $100 million (how much more isn’t known), and agent Scott Boras says an earlier report of Arizona only offering a one-year deal is “not accurate” – and a belief and resolve in his position, Martinez has told people close to him that he intends to remain unsigned unless something changes.
They, too, have resolve in this case. Word is, owner Ken Kendrick has met multiple times with Boras. People who have spoken to Martinez in recent days say he has remained confident in his position. It was reported early on he was seeking seven years for close to $30 million annually, and while he will have to come off those numbers, there’s obviously a serious gap between that and what he’s being offered.
There is a zero chance you are getting 30 million a year.

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-d-backs-join-red-sox-in-jd-martinez-stare-down/
 
Last edited:

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Boras has pulled a lot of rabbits out of a lot of hats in the past, but I don't see how this posturing is going to work. If anything, his already small market will probably shrink, as the Sox and the Dbacks will eventually move to their Plan B's.

I would guess it's far more likely that he signs within a week than he remains unsigned for another month.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
I wonder how much of a factor Chavis is here. If the Sox are bullish on his chances of being a legit MLB power hitter, and they think he'll graduate by April 2019 at the latest, that might be a factor limiting how much they'll invest in a long-term contract for an FA slugger. They don't have to think Chavis is going to be as good as Martinez to think that he might be good enough to fill a similar role in their lineup cheaply, giving them more resources to put into wrapping up Betts and perhaps others over the next couple of years.
 

sketz

Bad Santa
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
203
seattle
Really getting tired of the Martinez drama. I know it’s all posturing & negotiating tactics, but if he really wanted to be in Boston, he would be already. At this point, I’d rather put that money towards extending Sale/Betts, add one of Morrison/Duda and save-what’s left over for a mid season trade.
 

TomBrunansky23

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2006
772
Crapchester, NY
Boras has pulled a lot of rabbits out of a lot of hats in the past, but I don't see how this posturing is going to work. If anything, his already small market will probably shrink, as the Sox and the Dbacks will eventually move to their Plan B's.

I would guess it's far more likely that he signs within a week than he remains unsigned for another month.
And what scares me is that I think you are 100% correct that it happens within days...we are witnessing the death rattle of Boras' myopic campaign to get 7/$210 for a one-dimensional player on the wrong side of 30. He is going to sign here, and when he does and when he is in the throes of the adjustment period that seems to be required of every free agent that signs here, he will be crucified unmercifully by the media and fans. To me all signs point to disaster - Crawford/Sandoval level disaster I am afraid.
 

TomBrunansky23

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2006
772
Crapchester, NY
There really are no signs that point to disaster.
I hope he comes here and rakes like he has since he came into his own four years ago. The problem is that I fear he comes here, starts slow like most recent FAs have, and gets ripped to shreds on account of how this offseason has unfolded. There is no way to know how he will handle that if it comes to pass. I only invoke Crawford's and Sandoval's names because they came here from smaller ponds in pursuit of the biggest dollars available and couldn't handle the market.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I hope he comes here and rakes like he has since he came into his own four years ago. The problem is that I fear he comes here, starts slow like most recent FAs have, and gets ripped to shreds on account of how this offseason has unfolded. There is no way to know how he will handle that if it comes to pass. I only invoke Crawford's and Sandoval's names because they came here from smaller ponds in pursuit of the biggest dollars available and couldn't handle the market.
How has this offseason unfolded? Just slowly, but in the end, if he signs here it will be to a relatively "reasonable" contract. Sandoval came in fat and lazy. Crawford came in surly and relying on his fading speed. JDM is going to be asked to do one thing, and there are no signs that he won't be able to hit. And there are no signs that he'll be treated particularly harshly if he comes in in shape, works hard, and says the right things. And there is no reason to think he won't do those things. I think this situation is as far from the two you mentioned as any you could serve up.
 

TomBrunansky23

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2006
772
Crapchester, NY
How has this offseason unfolded? Just slowly, but in the end, if he signs here it will be to a relatively "reasonable" contract. Sandoval came in fat and lazy. Crawford came in surly and relying on his fading speed. JDM is going to be asked to do one thing, and there are no signs that he won't be able to hit. And there are no signs that he'll be treated particularly harshly if he comes in in shape, works hard, and says the right things. And there is no reason to think he won't do those things. I think this situation is as far from the two you mentioned as any you could serve up.
We are going to have to respectfully agree to disagree. Do you believe that he will be arriving here under the same circumstances as a "normal" free agent? That no pressure or "surliness" will be added by missing 7/$210 by a mile or the narrative of the last week that he is disenchanted with the organization and doesn't want to be here?

I think the likes of Shank are just dying for Martinez to scuffle out of the gate or be completely outperformed by Stanton to change his name in the papers to something like "Just Dollars" or some other silliness. Crawford absolutely recoiled from the harsh glare of the Boston media spotlight when he underperformed - is Martinez ready to handle that?

I hope as a fan that I am dead wrong and he performs consistent with his recent level of production. Unfortunately, he isn't coming here in a vacuum and will have to battle several significant external forces to succeed to the level and length of his contract.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
We are going to have to respectfully agree to disagree. Do you believe that he will be arriving here under the same circumstances as a "normal" free agent? That no pressure or "surliness" will be added by missing 7/$210 by a mile or the narrative of the last week that he is disenchanted with the organization and doesn't want to be here?

I think the likes of Shank are just dying for Martinez to scuffle out of the gate or be completely outperformed by Stanton to change his name in the papers to something like "Just Dollars" or some other silliness. Crawford absolutely recoiled from the harsh glare of the Boston media spotlight when he underperformed - is Martinez ready to handle that?

I hope as a fan that I am dead wrong and he performs consistent with his recent level of production. Unfortunately, he isn't coming here in a vacuum and will have to battle several significant external forces to succeed to the level and length of his contract.
Yes, he will be a normal free agent. You're reading way too much into a negotiation. I think your concerns might be more warranted if he did, in fact, get his $200 million.

Anyway, my original point is that I believe that something will happen soon, whether he comes here or not. And at the price neighborhood being leaked, I hope it's here.
 

carver

New Member
Oct 9, 2009
1,781
Omaha, NE
Scott Boras's assistant, standing right next to Scott Boras: "The Red Sox have only offered $110M/ 5 yrs."
Bruce Levine: "Scott, is this true?"
Scott Boras: "I can't comment on that."

The lack of leaks up until this week (from any MLB front office, really) has been astounding; that we're getting lots of commentary after the Superbowl right before pitchers and catchers report, indicates that this needs to get done and both sides know it.

I could see the Sox having a $125M/ 5 yr deal on the table, someone leaking that it's only $110, then everyone saves face when JDM signs for $125M.
That was my thought exactly. Everything about Boras is the perception of his negotiating skills...
 

chicoliv

New Member
Nov 29, 2005
3
Santa Fe, NM
I wonder how much of a factor Chavis is here. If the Sox are bullish on his chances of being a legit MLB power hitter, and they think he'll graduate by April 2019 at the latest, that might be a factor limiting how much they'll invest in a long-term contract for an FA slugger. They don't have to think Chavis is going to be as good as Martinez to think that he might be good enough to fill a similar role in their lineup cheaply, giving them more resources to put into wrapping up Betts and perhaps others over the next couple of years.
I don't think Chavis is a big part of this. He is too much of an uncertainty, and even if they are enthusiatic on him, he plays infield (?1B) more, and I think they would like him to establish a position in AAA (?1B) before bringing him up. Seems a waste to consign him to DH when he has potential to be more. JDM is a (poor) outfielder, and looks to be primarily DH.
As has been amply discussed elsewhere, the bigger issue is Hanley, and perhaps Devers. Bringing in JDM will significantly cut back on Hanley's at bats. If he is truly healthy now and starts to mash, we lose about 1/2 of those at bats as he platoons at 1B. If Devers progresses as hoped, and Hanley starts to mash, then perhaps blowing all that money on a DH is not as much of a priority and not the best choice.

Yeah....I know....if...if...if....lots of ifs.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2007
64,387
This like wat hong someone try to get out of an arranged marriage.

There’s suspense, but not a lot of joy in the process.
 

StuckOnYouk

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
3,541
CT
This is where in the old days the Yankees would swoop in out of nowhere, give him 5/135, add a 3rd huge bat to the middle of that lineup and say that John Henry didn't try enough for his team.
Now with their intent to stay under the luxury tax they can't do that. But imagine with Martinez's right field power in that ballpark how lethal the middle of that lineup already would be. They could go Judge/Stanton/Martinez 2/3/4, geezus.

Thank god they won't...at least I don't think so.

But all these players costs are dropping so low Cashman is just going to pick off at least one bargain out there, no doubt.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,083
The only obvious place for NY to upgrade currently is backup C and they haven’t seemed too interested in that so far for whatever reason.

To add Martinez, they would almost certainly need to move Gardner, positionally and financially. I don’t see that happening but this offseason has been really unpredictable so far so who knows.

My guess as of now is that Cashman doesn’t add anyone else with a guaranteed major league spot and he keeps the financial flexibility for midseason. I think he’d like to add a SP better than Sonny Gray so a top 3 guy along with Severino/Tanaka but it makes sense to wait and see how guys like Fulmer and Archer rebound from their year-end issues last year. His half-hearted pursuit of Gerrit Cole (Torres, Florial, Sheffield, Andujar all off the table) means to me that he thinks he can do better than that at some point.
 

The Talented Allen Ripley

holden
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 2, 2003
12,737
MetroWest, MA
Yes, he will be a normal free agent. You're reading way too much into a negotiation. I think your concerns might be more warranted if he did, in fact, get his $200 million.
This, a thousand times. If Martinez signs for what seems a relative bargain compared to the numbers that were tossed about last November/December, there aren't going to be any perception issues at all. At least not from reasonable fans.

Oh.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
I only invoke Crawford's and Sandoval's names because they came here from smaller ponds in pursuit of the biggest dollars available and couldn't handle the market.
Is The Market some incurable, terminal disease? If the pressure from the market was what made Crawford play like a 4th outfielder and Sandoval play so poorly they cut him, wouldn't they have started playing well again after leaving? Neither approached anything close to their previous levels of success upon leaving Boston.

Both were simply awful signings, which many here pointed out when they were signed. As BMHH has pointed out, there are no indications that Martinez is going to stop doing what he does so well. Over the last four years he's been one of the top 10 hitters on the planet. If he can be had for 5/125, he's a steal.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
Both were simply awful signings, which many here pointed out when they were signed. As BMHH has pointed out, there are no indications that Martinez is going to stop doing what he does so well.
What were the indications in Crawford's case? He was an outstanding player, still under 30 (a year younger than Martinez is now) and at the top of his game, coming off the best season of his career. His abrupt transformation into a replacement-level player was not something anyone could reasonably have foreseen. There was reason to be worried about the length of the deal, but not about the short-term ROI--which makes him a very fair cautionary comp here.

Sandoval, yes, the warning signs were there; I think people were confused by his youth and couldn't believe that a 28-year-old had already entered his decline phase in earnest.
 

billy ashley

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,229
Washington DC
Agreed on Crawford. There was actually a lot of research suggesting that a player with his skill set is actually able to weather decline better than players with a more narrow skill set/specialty.

The only beef I think folks had at the time was that it was strange to pay a premium defense left fielder to play half his games at Fenway.

Other than that... it was widely agreed that Crawford was a great signing.

Sometimes you step on a rake and it's not your fault.

Sandoval was another story. We clearly misguessed the market. I thought it would be okay... 2.5 win players get 20 million.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,426
Weren't both of those guys playing hurt their first years? And then required season-ending surgeries the following years? The merits of each signing can be debated, but I think it's tough to make the case that Big Bad Boston broke these two guys, especially in Sandoval's case.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
What were the indications in Crawford's case? He was an outstanding player, still under 30 (a year younger than Martinez is now) and at the top of his game, coming off the best season of his career. His abrupt transformation into a replacement-level player was not something anyone could reasonably have foreseen. There was reason to be worried about the length of the deal, but not about the short-term ROI--which makes him a very fair cautionary comp here.

Sandoval, yes, the warning signs were there; I think people were confused by his youth and couldn't believe that a 28-year-old had already entered his decline phase in earnest.
I think the biggest thing with Crawford was that he was a bad fit for a park like Fenway which would limit his defensive value, and defense was a big part of his game. He was also a guy who was never a great hitter to begin with, so if the speed did slip a little (which it did) his game was going to start falling apart.

I was actually a Crawford believer at the time, so I wasn't one of the people opposed to the signing, but there was a very vocal crowd of nay sayers when the rumors kicked up, and they ended up being right.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
They also signed Crawford thinking he was going to hit for a lot more power than he had previously because he was entering the prime of his career and just posted a career high ISO.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

has fancy plans, and pants to match
Dope
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2001
24,622
Other than that... it was widely agreed that Crawford was a great signing.
Really? From what I remember there wasn't a lot of people who were happy that the Sox signed Crawford because there was no real need for him or his skill set.

People were pumped that they traded for Adrian Gonzalez that offseason, but Crawford was a looked at as a very expensive redundancy.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
Agreed on Crawford. There was actually a lot of research suggesting that a player with his skill set is actually able to weather decline better than players with a more narrow skill set/specialty.

The only beef I think folks had at the time was that it was strange to pay a premium defense left fielder to play half his games at Fenway.

Other than that... it was widely agreed that Crawford was a great signing.
Not true. It was widely agreed that the Gonzalez trade was great. But there was a significant amount of concern about Crawford.

First and foremost were the concerns about his relatively low BB-rate and how his HR power would be sapped by Fenway’s RF.

Of secondary concern was whether it made sense to put a plus defensive LF in front of the monster knowing that his arm precluded a switch to RF.

Third, it was clear that there wasn’t a top-of-the-lineup slot available, so his bat wasn’t going to play anywhere except where he’d have to redefine himself as a hitter. Plus, his struggles against LHP caused questions about whether he’d need to be platooned, despite his $20MM AAV.

However, these concerns were pretty much drowned out by the prospect of obtaining some prime years of a dynamic player who had tortured Wakefield and the rest of the pitching staff for ages.

So the consensus view emerged that although $20MM was a lot of money, and that he duplicated the skill set of another player already on payroll, and potentially that of a top prospect, it was totally worth it to stack the team with such a great player.

Note that the first and third concerns were pretty much exactly the same concerns raised about Panda, as was the consensus view that emerged.

The nice part today is that, despite the obvious long-term performance risk of a JDM signing, none of these other concerns apply. So signing JDM is a risk that most likely should be taken, even if it doesn’t work out perfectly to plan.

[edit]: ninja’d by JMOH!
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
I don't disagree that there were legitimate concerns about whether Crawford was a good fit for Fenway or for the Sox' needs at the time. My point was just that he answered quite well to Snod's statement about JDM, that "there are no indications that [he] is going to stop doing what he does so well."

I would also point out that a few people have raised questions about JDM's offensive Fenway fit because his HR power is so oppo-oriented--sort of Crawford's issue in reverse. I think that's overblown--he would lose a few HR to right and gain a few to left, but the sum total would probably be a wash. But it's something people have flagged. And there's also concern about the fact that he's a poor defender but doesn't want to DH, which is not the same as, but sort of analogous to, the questions about Crawford's defensive fit in Fenway.

In short, I don't think there were a lot more reasons to think Crawford would be a bad signing than there are to think that of Martinez. They're just slightly different reasons. Crawford might not have been an ideal fit, but he certainly should have been much, much better than he was. And there's no particular reason to think we might not be saying the same thing about JDM in a couple of years.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,675
The Crawford thing is tragic. He wasn't a great defensive fit from the start, but his batting profile during his 2010 season in Tampa had no holes. His weighted production per 100 pitches:

Pitch type – MLB rank
wFB - 57th
wSL - 25th
wCT - 24th
wCB - 37th
wCH - 24th
wSF - 1st

Shows how hard it can be to evaluate. Crawford could hit anything thrown at him pretty well, but was destroyed by fastballs the very next year and never really recovered. (Splitters accounted for about 1.5 percent of pitches in 2010, even less in 2017.)

Here's JDM's 2016-17 rank vs pitch type (min 800 PAs):

wFB - T-1st (with Freddie Freeman)
wSL - 63rd
wCT - 130th (improved to 20th in MLB in 2017)
wCB - 38th
wCH - 43rd
wSF - 128th

Seeing how the average fastball and slider is about 1 to 1.5 mph faster than it was in 2010, and slider usage is going up leaguewide, getting guys who can mash those two pitches seems like a smart investment.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
Really getting tired of the Martinez drama. I know it’s all posturing & negotiating tactics, but if he really wanted to be in Boston, he would be already. At this point, I’d rather put that money towards extending Sale/Betts, add one of Morrison/Duda and save-what’s left over for a mid season trade.
You mean lack of drama? So far the only "drama" is Martinez himself commenting on how nothing is happening. But yeah, I too am starting to talk myself into LoMo. What a huge F-U to Boras that would be...
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,109
Florida
You mean lack of drama? So far the only "drama" is Martinez himself commenting on how nothing is happening. But yeah, I too am starting to talk myself into LoMo. What a huge F-U to Boras that would be...
I ultimately can't see the Sox taking an upside flyer on Morrison when they are already pot committed for $22m on another.

That bluff card was something you play before re-signing Moreland.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,557
Somewhere
I remember watching Crawford putting up some videos of his Nomar-esque training regimen and thinking... PEDs.

Not that his decline could have been foreseen anyways, but it would give some cause, right?
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,675
You mean lack of drama? So far the only "drama" is Martinez himself commenting on how nothing is happening. But yeah, I too am starting to talk myself into LoMo. What a huge F-U to Boras that would be...
And a huge one right back to us in June when he’s sitting on a .750 OPS.

LoMo’s another guy who gets shifted on in half his at-bats, when he becomes as easy an out as Marrero. He’s a terrible idea.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.