Jets HC Saleh Fired
- Thread starter bsj
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He was 23-32-1 against the spread overall. So 42%. Underperformance.
But the non-conference record speaks to the team's inability to prepare for teams they might not be familiar with.
Not a huge follower of the NFL, so this is a genuine question and not a criticism: Are coaches truly evaluated on how they have fared against the spread rather than on their overall won-loss record? That seems like a crazy concept to me, but it may well be rooted in something worthwhile.
I don't think that's a barometer but I think where he's going is this. If you've got a shit team that factors into the spread each week derived by guys that are paid to have a good idea about how much a team should win or lose by. If you start off the year as a ten point underdog in the first four games and you lose them all by 3 yes, your record is 0-4 but you're performing better than was generally expected. Conversely if on paper you're the '07 Pats and each week you're favored to beat everyone by double digits and you just squeak by people every week people are going to wonder what's wrong with the team.
There is an endogeneity problem but the spread somewhat corrects for talent level. Let’s look at Bobby on the money line
Kyle Shanahan after 71 games: 32-39
Sometimes situations dictate records more than coaching ability. Not sure Saleh can be a head coach, but not sure this was telling either.
Sometimes situations dictate records more than coaching ability. Not sure Saleh can be a head coach, but not sure this was telling either.
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HIs overall record was deplorable. His record against the spread was terrible. He was a bad coach.
Judging his record to assess if he was a good coach is insane?
So I think all of this is pointless, but Saleh's record is appears in largely part a product of getting 50 game with a bad roster.
He had the same winning percentage as a favorite as John Harbaugh. 1% behind Andy Reid, 10% better than Stefanski, 20% better than Demeco Ryan.
Fits the general pattern... Wins in the NFL are primarily about talent and particularly QB talent. Elite caches help, but nobody can sustain success with really bad QB play over multiple seasons
He had the same winning percentage as a favorite as John Harbaugh. 1% behind Andy Reid, 10% better than Stefanski, 20% better than Demeco Ryan.
Fits the general pattern... Wins in the NFL are primarily about talent and particularly QB talent. Elite caches help, but nobody can sustain success with really bad QB play over multiple seasons
22-33-1 against the spread during Saleh’s tenure. But they were 18-29-1 against the spread during the three years prior to Saleh’s arrival, so those records probably tell us the Jets are chronically overrated. Or maybe Jets fans are exceptionally likely to gamble on their shitty team, though in that case you’d expect smart money on the other side to even things out.
Even if you think records ATS are probative, why would you cherry-pick non-conference games?
No kidding. This reminds me of those who think the various betting sites on the web are somehow predictors of how campaigns will play out. If you want to criticize Saleh as a coach, go for it. He definitely wasn't fixing anything, that's for sure. But to do so on the basis of betting odds/margins is absurd.
Saleh doesn’t control and doesn’t even care about the spread. He would happily go 17-0 winning by 1 point each week. Record against the spread has too many confounders, including stupid betting patterns, be used to judge a coach’s acumen.
Why not go the other way and say you’ll eat a log of your own shit if Jets make the playoffs?
Rodgers claims of innocence are so transparently false that I'm not going to spend more than one sentence even addressing it. He clearly wields significant influence over team decisions. To suggest such an unprecedented move was made without his approval is insulting. I don't believe him.
Three things come to mind:
1) Ulbrich retro mohawk:
2) Panchakarma cleanse in honor of AR. Google it on a non work computer.
3) Ayahuasca retreat also in honor of AR. These are legal but you have to organize it with specific churches and organizations.
These would all make good jokes I hope.
That was pretty great. Really excellent insights all around, including from Matty P, somewhat surprisingly. Now Part II, why did a great culture fall apart in NE? It takes so much to build it, once you have it, how do you lose it, etc. Ultimately it's results, or a crushing mistake, like Mac.
For the Jets I feel like they were leaving Rodgers aside, only referring obliquely to his impact on personnel. He definitely has some role here. But I guess they wanted to keep the focus on coaches and FO guys.
Please let’s not infect this wonderful thread with suggestions that Mac Jones single-handedly destroyed the Patriots culture.
Tho if he did, let’s hope he finds his way to the Jets one of these days.
Tho if he did, let’s hope he finds his way to the Jets one of these days.
I don’t know what kind of sicko I am but it’s really funny to me that Saleh sent BB out with a loss at home in the snow
Thank you
That was really good. I really like Bill and would like him to get a team and break the record, but I love listening to him talk about coaching. The fact he is so articulate and thoughtful makes his refusal to talk to the press even funnier.
Jets were not favorites very often.
Saleh went 20-36 overall. I'm sure Saleh would love to have won a lot of games by 1 point. He wasn't winning many games at all.
Are people seriously arguing he was a good coach?
I haven’t read anyone argue that he’s a good coach. I have read several people argue that he was hamstrung with crap QB options and an overall poor offensive roster, and that, as such, it’s not easy to determine whether he is or isn’t a good coach. I don’t know how a fair reading of this thread would lead anyone to any other characterization of what people are arguing.
Aside from the W/L record he didn't demonstrate a capacity to manage the operation. The Hackett stuff, handling Rodgers, it was all fell apart when that got out of hand. In the BB video above they make a good point about when guys are getting head coaching jobs now. Basically it's a few years into the NFL careers. Bill's was 16. Xs and Os prowess is one thing but management is another and it's rare to find both. The latter falls apart much more often.
I don't know if Saleh is a good coach or not. He was a successful defensive coordinator. A combination of Andy Reid and Bill Belichick could not have made a Zach Wilson led team to victory. Either way, it was dumb for Woody Johnson to prioritize Hackett's feelings over Saleh, but that is what makes them the J-E-T-S Jets!!
Matt LeFleur took Malik Willis, terrible QB, and turned him into Fran Tarkenton this year.
Kevin O'Connell took Sam Darnold, Jet bust in a long line of Jet busts, and has turned him into Steve McNair this year.
Kyle Shanahan took Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant, and turned him into Tom Brady plus wheels.
So teams can work around bad QBs and perform if they run solid schemes and prepare. The Jets have never been prepared. And even if Zach Wilson sucks, and he does, the Jets used him incorrectly.
And this year, the Jets have Aaron Rodgers, not Zach. And while Rodgers is nearing washed levels, he still has incredible arm talent. And the Jets are 2-3 because they beat the two worst teams in the NFL. Denver and SF have 5 cumulative wins and 40% of those wins are against the Jets.
Saleh was not a great coach. If his situation wasn't ideal, he operated in a fashion to exacerbate the problems and didn't mollify anything.
Brock Purdy is not a bad QB, unless you willingly overrate draft position. Sure, if you have the right roster, you can work around a mediocre QB. But not even Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels could work around Cam Newton. Zach Wilson is much closer to a washed Cam Newton than he is to being even a below average NFL QB.
Saleh may be a bad head coach; I honestly don't know. All I know is that the Jets bungled this badly.
The Jets seem to do just fine at destroying their culture as things are. They are the poster child for this. What would Mac Jones add?
No, we're saying your repeated mentions of the spread are pretty strange, at least to me.
He record by itself is enough to say, hey it's not great.
I think “the spread” is to denote times where he may have been projected to lose, and still lost worse than anticipated. But obviously it works the other way in terms of games he was supposed to win but maybe didn’t win by enough.
I don’t disagree that it doesn’t mean very much and his record is bad enough where we can say pretty definitively that he wasn’t good.
Much like Flores, he wasn’t able to figure out the offensive side of the ball as a head coach. Some guys are just great defensive coordinators, and I think Saleh is one.
Saleh being kind of a happy puppy that just desperately wanted Aaron Rodgers to love him (and was rejected very publicly in multiple ways) is maybe how I'll remember him. It transformed an underwhelming on-field tenure into a cute greek tragedy.
He seemed to cultivate good talent and approach on defense. On offense, he was mostly given a bad situation and did zero to improve or grow it. In terms of in-game management / strategy, I have no real memory of anything positive occurring over these 56 games.
He seemed to cultivate good talent and approach on defense. On offense, he was mostly given a bad situation and did zero to improve or grow it. In terms of in-game management / strategy, I have no real memory of anything positive occurring over these 56 games.
Yeah, Saleh was great but Demeco Ryans was a good replacement.
The problem has been one year of Wils and what we have now.
I also pause at the spread references. I totally do get it, annd ultimately it’s just another lens to look through, but all I can think is ‘why does my analysis factor in what the Bankroll bunch (or whatever) thought at the time’? They couldn’t be a bigger bunch of dopes. If this sounded obnoxious I apologize it wasn’t meant to or to lump us collectively into the dope bucket. Though I coincidentally happen to be one, I’m not a betting one.
Groh is also one of three people to have multiple wins against Belichick (as Pats coach) without a loss. The others were McDaniels (ironically) and Ron Rivera, who was the only one to do it against the Brady/Belichick combo.
Jets take play calling away from Hackett.
View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1844383241832116641?s=46&t=23orJRFkAhpzRtm4p3-oEw
View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1844383241832116641?s=46&t=23orJRFkAhpzRtm4p3-oEw
It doesn't matter. Anyone who calls plays is going to get told to fuck off by Rodgers anyway. Just admit Rodgers will be doing all the play calling. And dragging the team into the abyss.
That’s fine. The problem with Hackett even doing everything Rodgers wants is that the operation was slow. They need to get the plays in quicker. Rodgers is going to pick from whatever 3 plays he is given regardless.