Jets Week

Dan Murfman

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RED = NY Jets @ New England [incl AK/HI]
BLUE = Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
GREEN = Houston @ Miami
YELLOW = Oakland @ San Diego (late)
PURPLE = Cleveland @ St. Louis
 
Ian Eagle/Dan Fouts doing game
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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I'll be at a wedding in Sarasota this weekend. For what reason would the greater tampa area be getting Oakland/San Diego?
I can understand not putting Miami on within the Bucs area. But with all the New England transplants there they give two west coast AFC teams?
 

Marciano490

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( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
I'll be at a wedding in Sarasota this weekend. For what reason would the greater tampa area be getting Oakland/San Diego?
 
Because you touch yourself at night.
 

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
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I am not a Jets fan but I love watching Ivory run.  The phrase "running angry" is a cliche, but if you could say it about anyone, it's him.  You can tell that skinny CB hate that they have to tackle this guy; even LB who are pretty big guys come out the losers in their collisions with Ivory.
 
Patriots shouldn't lose this game, but they can lose it.
 

genoasalami

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( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
I'll be at a wedding in Sarasota this weekend. For what reason would the greater tampa area be getting Oakland/San Diego?
I can understand not putting Miami on within the Bucs area. But with all the New England transplants there they give two west coast AFC teams?
 
We have the double header this weekend and with the Bucs having a 1 pm game, WTSP (the CBS station) in the market, is limited to just the late game, I think they are showing golf at 1pm.
 

Dehere

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Went to the WAS-NYJ game yesterday and was impressed. That is a legit, physical and frankly likable team. I don't think they can win in Foxboro but they're a playoff team that could steal a wildcard game on the road. Ivory is a treat to watch. Fitz has got some balls; yesterday he twice took off running and made a cut in open space rather than slide. One such run went for a first down, the other a TD. Pats win this but Jets are an intriguing team in an AFC that's lacking in blue-collar football.
 

dcmissle

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Ok, the line makes more sense to me now. It's still a big number, but I wrongly thought the game is in NY.

Quirky schedule - this is the first of three home games in a row, which sets up very favorably for the Pats. Other teams have scheduling oddities too -- Ravens for example.
 

soxhop411

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Manish Mehta ‏@MMehtaNYDN 11m11 minutes ago
Jets are signing WR Kenbrell Thompkins to the active roster off practice squad, source confirms (as @RapSheet said). Will replace Enunwa
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory

soxhop411

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@kguregian: Matthew Slater just walked through the lockeroom which would appear to be a good sign. He was last seen on a cart favoring a knee in Indy
 

edmunddantes

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Veteran guard Willie Colon was asked why the Jets are not talking up the Patriots game like in years past and laughed, knowing reporters were looking for him to take a dig at Ryan.
“New regime, new regime,” Colon said with a chuckle. “Next question.”
But Colon then expanded on Bowles’ mantra to the team to stay even-keeled, just like its coach.
“I think good teams don’t ride the emotional roller coaster. They stay steady. They stay straight ahead,” Colon said. “They stay in their lane. They don’t look left or right and see what other teams are going through. We’re trying to be that team. We don’t have to look at what Buffalo is going through or what New England is doing. We’ve got to just worry about what the New York Jets have to do and be competitive and play hard.”
 
Son of a bitch! 
 
The Jets might actually be learning.
 

TrotWaddles

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For some reason, I'm a bit more worried about the Jets than for the Colts.  For the longest time, the Jets have been just an absolute shit show and this year they just seem to be getting on with having a very good defense and getting some wins.  I think the Pats win but I'm not liking the new quiet, go about their business Jets.
 

EricFeczko

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TrotWaddles said:
For some reason, I'm a bit more worried about the Jets than for the Colts.  For the longest time, the Jets have been just an absolute shit show and this year they just seem to be getting on with having a very good defense and getting some wins.  I think the Pats win but I'm not liking the new quiet, go about their business Jets.
I'm extremely worried about the Jets compared to the Colts (who are 3-3 playing in, arguably, the worst division in the NFL). This is the Patriots first real test since week 1. The Jets have played as the 2nd best defense (2nd to the broncos) this year. Although the Broncos have had more pressure on QB, the Jets have been just as good at limiting pass efficiency. Furthermore, Fitzpatrick has been playing far better than Manning, and the Jets have a good running game as well. Unless Fitz gets pick happy, this will be a tough home game.
 

lexrageorge

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The Jets, who were a shitshow last season, played NE very tight in the 2 games last season.  The Jets will be amped up, and so I would expect nothing less than their best effort from their varsity in this one.  And this has implications for the early division race.  So, yes, this one will be a real test for the Patriots, especially after the emotional Sunday night win on the road.  Hey, this is what's it's all about when you play your division rivals.  
 

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
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EricFeczko said:
I'm extremely worried about the Jets compared to the Colts (who are 3-3 playing in, arguably, the worst division in the NFL). This is the Patriots first real test since week 1. The Jets have played as the 2nd best defense (2nd to the broncos) this year. Although the Broncos have had more pressure on QB, the Jets have been just as good at limiting pass efficiency. Furthermore, Fitzpatrick has been playing far better than Manning, and the Jets have a good running game as well. Unless Fitz gets pick happy, this will be a tough home game.
 
I have watched them a couple of times, and I agree with this.  It seems as if Fitz is tending better as the season goes along.  The running game is solid.  Marshall (stupid lateral aside) is doing well, which has enabled Decker to not have to be a #1.  Even though Decker has missed a couple of games, he has been effective.  If the Jets had even a league-average or slightly below TE, they would be a formidable offense.  As it is, with this defense, they are good enough to be a tough out.
 

Stitch01

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Fitz is almost certainly a mirage given his track record. This would be a very good team with an average quarterback
 

Tony C

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I share the worry about the Jets and that they're a much tougher club than the Colts. But I don't get the love for Fitz -- I watched very little of him vs the Red....er D.C. club, but the game before against Miami he was the definition of scattershot.
 

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
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Tony C said:
I share the worry about the Jets and that they're a much tougher club than the Colts. But I don't get the love for Fitz -- I watched very little of him vs the Red....er D.C. club, but the game before against Miami he was the definition of scattershot.
I agree that he's not an above-average quarterback, but in my admittedly random, occasional, and perfunctory looks at the Jets this year, Fitz seems to be developing the habit of pulling the ball down and running when he gets into trouble, instead of tossing picks.  SSS of SSS, but I was surprised to see, "hey, he can actually run, sort of."
 

EricFeczko

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Stitch01 said:
Fitz is almost certainly a mirage given his track record. This would be a very good team with an average quarterback
Over his career, Fitz manages 6.6 yards per attempt (6.9 in 2015) with a 60 percent completion (~62 in 2015) and a 3.5 interception percentage (4.1 in 2015; sorry oilcan). Adjusting for picks he manages 5.9 yards per attempt (6.1 in 2015). Adjusting for sacks and picks, he manages ~5.3 (~6 in 2015). The big difference between 2015 Fitz and his career are the sacks; for his career Fitz gets sacked on 5.7 percent of plays, but only 1.2 percent in 2015. Furthermore, he's played on teams with bad lines, so it is unclear whether 5.7 percent may represent his true ability at avoiding sacks. He's always had some mobility as a QB (4.6 yards per attempt for his career; 4.2 in 2015; sorry oilcan).

Make no mistake, Fitz is clearly an average/below average QB in 2015 and for his career. However, he's more mediocre than terrible, which makes him somewhat underrated.
 

5dice

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I am scared of Pittsburgh because the Patriots are going to be so angry after the awful offseason and will be too tightly wound.

I am scared of Buffalo because Rex Ryan has taken an awesome D and made it better and the stadium will be crazy.

I am scared of the Cowboys and the return of Greg Hardy because Tom Brady doesn't like facing scary pass rushers.

I am scared that Indianapolis is really prepared and compensating for the way we have been running over them.

Now I am really scared of an inferior Jets team led by Ryan Fitzpatrick because it now carries itself semi-professionally.

I guess we wouldn't be fans if we couldn't manufacture fear for each game. Oh, and Jacksonville at home was a trap.
 

Bergs

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EricFeczko said:
Over his career, Fitz manages 6.6 yards per attempt (6.9 in 2015) with a 60 percent completion (~62 in 2015) and a 3.5 interception percentage (4.1 in 2015; sorry oilcan). Adjusting for picks he manages 5.9 yards per attempt (6.1 in 2015). Adjusting for sacks and picks, he manages ~5.3 (~6 in 2015). The big difference between 2015 Fitz and his career are the sacks; for his career Fitz gets sacked on 5.7 percent of plays, but only 1.2 percent in 2015. Furthermore, he's played on teams with bad lines, so it is unclear whether 5.7 percent may represent his true ability at avoiding sacks. He's always had some mobility as a QB (4.6 yards per attempt for his career; 4.2 in 2015; sorry oilcan).

Make no mistake, Fitz is clearly an average/below average QB in 2015 and for his career. However, he's more mediocre than terrible, which makes him somewhat underrated.
 
Ironically, Fitzpatrick's one big game against the Pats in 2011 was the major contributor to his retirement security. He signed that ludicrous extension with the Bills a month after he led them in a comeback vs NE, only to go 2-8 after signing, including a lovely revenge beatdown on the final week of the season in Foxboro.
 
Edit: Quoted wrong post
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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The Jets will be tough but I wouldn't go overboard.  Their offense blows - Fitz is a bottom tier QB, they don't have a single TE that can catch the ball, they don't have a decent 3rd WR, Ivory is a good hammer but he can't catch the ball and Powell is a mediocre 3rd down back.  Their strength is the starting WRs but its not like Brandon Marshall is AJ Green or Julio Jones.    The offensive line is pretty mediocre and four of its starters are on the wrong side of 30.
 
The defense is legitimately great but our strengths on offense play well against their strengths on defense (interior line, run defense, Revis).  We'll probably concede the run completely and spend the whole afternoon exploiting matchups in the short to medium passing game against their weaker defenders.
 
It won't be easy and we could very well lose but Vegas probably has this one largely correct (Pats giving nine).  Anything can happen in the league but this isn't a particularly close matchup.
 

Tony C

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OilCanShotTupac said:
I agree that he's not an above-average quarterback, but in my admittedly random, occasional, and perfunctory looks at the Jets this year, Fitz seems to be developing the habit of pulling the ball down and running when he gets into trouble, instead of tossing picks.  SSS of SSS, but I was surprised to see, "hey, he can actually run, sort of."
 
Yep, that much is true -- has really run effectively.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Tony C said:
 
Yep, that much is true -- has really run effectively.
Given the lack of tight end threat, maybe we see a lot of Collins playing spy, like we did this week against Luck?
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Al Zarilla said:
Really? Fitz warrants a spy? Seriously doubt Belichick/Patricia would do that.
Mainly spitballing here. Some stats, if interesting to anyone:
Luck (three games prior to Patriots): 14 rushes for 65 yards total, long of 15
Fitz (five games prior to this week's matchup): 20 rushes for 83 yards, long of 19.

I'm not sure if those includes sacks or not and how to tease that out if so.

Of course, keeping Collins home in the middle of the field may have more to do with his role in a zone defense than with spying either QB.
 

Reverend

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5dice said:
I am scared of Pittsburgh because the Patriots are going to be so angry after the awful offseason and will be too tightly wound.

I am scared of Buffalo because Rex Ryan has taken an awesome D and made it better and the stadium will be crazy.

I am scared of the Cowboys and the return of Greg Hardy because Tom Brady doesn't like facing scary pass rushers.

I am scared that Indianapolis is really prepared and compensating for the way we have been running over them.

Now I am really scared of an inferior Jets team led by Ryan Fitzpatrick because it now carries itself semi-professionally.

I guess we wouldn't be fans if we couldn't manufacture fear for each game. Oh, and Jacksonville at home was a trap.
 
We're a Belichick coached fan base.
 

simplyeric

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edmunddantes said:
 
Son of a bitch! 
 
The Jets might actually be learning.
BB has stood out as a calm and reserved and slightly surly coach; the consummate professional.
Now other teams are starting to pick up on this, and are seeing success.

So soon enough, we'll see ebullient and brassy loudmouth Bill, exploiting the market inefficiency of "the crazy coach" once all the other coaches fall into BB's current pattern...
 

Devizier

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OilCanShotTupac said:
I agree that he's not an above-average quarterback, but in my admittedly random, occasional, and perfunctory looks at the Jets this year, Fitz seems to be developing the habit of pulling the ball down and running when he gets into trouble, instead of tossing picks.  SSS of SSS, but I was surprised to see, "hey, he can actually run, sort of."
 
Fitz actually has his highest INT% in some time this year. Somewhat higher than his career average. He's playing roughly as well as Blake Bortles, which is quite a bit (!) better than Manning or Luck.
 

tims4wins

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Bruschi said the Jets are the best team the Pats have faced to date this year, and I have to agree with him. Whodathunkit 8-9 months ago or even 2 months ago?
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Don't take too long of a half-time break:
 
@RichCimini Jets have outscored teams, 34-0, in 3rd Q. -- only team not to allow a point. NE averages NFL-high 10.2 ppg in 3rd quarter.
 

RedOctober3829

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It isn’t Patriots-Jets week without some trash-talk coming out of the Jets’ locker room.
Jets defensive end Sheldon Richardson guaranteed a win Sunday, which would give the Jets a 5-1 record and first place in the AFC East.
“This is going to be another win for us. We’ll let you all write the columns about validating wins and stuff like that. This is going to be another win in the win column if we got out there and execute and do what we’re supposed to do,” Richardson told Metro New York.
“We’re going to be up in the division, that’s how we’re going to look at it. We’re going to be the front-runners, that’s how we look at it.”
Richardson made his season debut last week after serving a four-game suspension.
 
http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports/newengland/football/patriots/2015/10/22/jets-sheldon-richardson-guarantees-win-over-patriots/
 

RIrooter09

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Yawn. How many times have we heard that out of a division rival over the last 15 years?
 

pokey_reese

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tims4wins said:
Bruschi said the Jets are the best team the Pats have faced to date this year, and I have to agree with him. Whodathunkit 8-9 months ago or even 2 months ago?
FO's DVOA has them as the 5th best team in the NFL, ESPN's FPI has them as the 6th best team, and 538's ELO system has them as the 14th best, they're 5th in scoring differential, and ESPN's human power rankings has them at 8th. ELO is a little heavily weighted towards previous seasons' performance, but even just averaging these evenly puts them at 7th or 8th, and just eyeballing the 538 rankings I would say they should definitely leapfrog a few people ahead of them (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/)
 
This is a borderline top-5/top-8 team heading into this game, so I don't think it is a stretch at all to say that they are our best opponent to date. I've seen in some places that the Jets are getting 10 points, which is insane. Unlike some previous weeks, I don't care about style at all, and I have no expectations. I will be nervous until the final horn, and pleased as punch if the Pats win by a single point.
 

tims4wins

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Agreed all around. When Rex was around I generally wanted to embarrass the Jets but with the regime change all I care about is the W again.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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pokey_reese said:
FO's DVOA has them as the 5th best team in the NFL, ESPN's FPI has them as the 6th best team, and 538's ELO system has them as the 14th best, they're 5th in scoring differential, and ESPN's human power rankings has them at 8th. ELO is a little heavily weighted towards previous seasons' performance, but even just averaging these evenly puts them at 7th or 8th, and just eyeballing the 538 rankings I would say they should definitely leapfrog a few people ahead of them (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/)
 
This is a borderline top-5/top-8 team heading into this game, so I don't think it is a stretch at all to say that they are our best opponent to date. I've seen in some places that the Jets are getting 10 points, which is insane. Unlike some previous weeks, I don't care about style at all, and I have no expectations. I will be nervous until the final horn, and pleased as punch if the Pats win by a single point.
 
I think people underestimate the strength of both the Steelers (with Ben) and the Patriots.  The Steelers are right there with the Jets on pretty much all these advanced metrics, despite having played 3.5 games with Mike Vick or Landry Jones at QB.  Its hard for me to buy an argument for the Jets being a better team than the Steelers with Roethlisberger.
 
Vegas lines might be off by a point or so at times but are pretty much never "insane," as in a field goal or more off what the "true" number should be.  If you're looking at the current line (-9 in most books, with most of the action on the Jets and those books seemingly willing to gamble against the public at that number) and you think its insane, that's usually an indication that your perspective on the matchup is off base.
 
The Jets are a pretty good team this year but the Patriots are a really, really good team and playing at home.  The Jets are likely to win somewhere between 20-25% of the time. 
 

Stitch01

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Yeah I think -9 is a little high, but the last two Pats lines would have translated to something like -16/-15 at home against Indy and Dallas and they were -14 against Jacksonville.  I think there's an argument this should be a 7, and I expect sharps buy the Jets later in the week, but the Pats are the consensus best team and playing at home, not sure how it tightens more than that.
 

soxhop411

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Jeff Howe ‏@jeffphowe  1m1 minute ago
Patriots cut DT Khyri Thornton, who has been inactive for all 3 games in which he's been on the 53-man roster. Could become LaFell's spot.
 

Silverdude2167

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I would not be surprised to see the Jets win, but they have faced a slew of terrible teams this season and I bet their numbers are inflated due to that.
 
We should hold off on calling them a top team (I realize the league sucks this year) when they have beat the Browns, Colts, Dolphins and Redskins and lost to an average at best Eagles team.
Let's see how they respond to a team that will not beat them self with terrible turnovers and who can take a punch.
 
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soxhop411 said:
Jeff Howe ‏@jeffphowe  1m1 minute ago
Patriots cut DT Khyri Thornton, who has been inactive for all 3 games in which he's been on the 53-man roster. Could become LaFell's spot.
Dobson Lives! (For now.) I smell a junk-for-junk trade...
 

E5 Yaz

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Oddly enough, I didn't find what Richardson said to be trash-talking. He says they expect to win. They should say things like that. It might even happen.
 
It won't, but there's little doubt to this point that the Jets are a different bunch than what we used to seeing
 

Trlicek's Whip

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E5 Yaz said:
Oddly enough, I didn't find what Richardson said to be trash-talking. He says they expect to win. They should say things like that. It might even happen.
 
Agreed. "This is going to be another win in the win column if we got out there and execute and do what we’re supposed to do,” being the operating phrase. 
 
The first line of the story is a hot take spin for clicks.
 

Rosey Ruzicka

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I don't understand why Sheldon Richardson's off-season incident is being forgotten in the media and ignored by the NFL.  Has anyone heard anything else on this recently?  The fact that he is only being charged with resisting arrest and a few traffic misdemeanors should not let him off the hook for clear child endangerment, especially based on the NFL and media's handling of other recent events.