Jets Week
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Since someone brought up the Pats defense and their 4.9 YPC against, I'd thought I would do a quick game-by-game summary. The following is the NE defense's yards per carry against
Steelers: 5.4
Bills: 5.9
Jax: 2.9
Dallas: 4.2
Indy: 5.5
The Pats run defense was not particularly good against either the Steelers or the Bills. Things improved quite a bit against Jacksonville and Dallas. A lot of Dallas' rushing yards came on one drive in the 3rd quarter, the one in which the Cowboys went for the gimme FG on 4th-and-short to make it 20-6. Other than that, Randle was relatively quiet.
I'm still not sure what to make of the run defense against Indy. Frank Gore had a good game (6 YPC), but he seemed to have little impact on the Colts fortunes beyond the first Colts scoring drive. He had some good runs when the Colts got the ball in the 3rd quarter, but the fake fake punt travesty resulted in the drive stalling anyway.
I think it bears watching, and let's hope that Sheard's injury is not too serious. This weekend will be the interesting test.
Steelers: 5.4
Bills: 5.9
Jax: 2.9
Dallas: 4.2
Indy: 5.5
The Pats run defense was not particularly good against either the Steelers or the Bills. Things improved quite a bit against Jacksonville and Dallas. A lot of Dallas' rushing yards came on one drive in the 3rd quarter, the one in which the Cowboys went for the gimme FG on 4th-and-short to make it 20-6. Other than that, Randle was relatively quiet.
I'm still not sure what to make of the run defense against Indy. Frank Gore had a good game (6 YPC), but he seemed to have little impact on the Colts fortunes beyond the first Colts scoring drive. He had some good runs when the Colts got the ball in the 3rd quarter, but the fake fake punt travesty resulted in the drive stalling anyway.
I think it bears watching, and let's hope that Sheard's injury is not too serious. This weekend will be the interesting test.
Well, Bowles is part of it...along with Revis, Cromartie, Marshall, Skrine, and Not Geno Smith. The performance of that defense, in particular, is more about the talent level than anything. Rex would probably have the same record, honestly.tims4wins said:
snowmanny said:
Who has a better chance of picking the game, 538 or a puppy going after bowls of food labeled with the teams?
Why do people even continue to cite 538 and their proven track record of 51% against the spread? They admit they rely on last years data for a lot of their analysis and have no advanced algorithms or anything worth discussing.
I'm not sure anyone you quoted was citing the spread. Simply the outcome. There's a difference, especially when the spread is 9 or 10 points.j44thor said:
I think the trepidation is based on:
1) Recent history of close games, even when the Jets were a laughing-stock;
2) Strong NYJ start this season and the sense that this isn't the same bumbling organization with Rex gone;
3) Rash of injuries to the Pats' O-line, leading up to a game against a D we fear;
3-a) Traumatic memories of past juggernaut Pats teams derailed by strong pass rushes from the "other" NY team
I also think some people are getting a little carried away with their Ivory fear. Yes he's a beast, and he'll get his yards. I guarantee there will be times when I'll be screaming about how we're getting gashed. But I think the Pats are still going to put up some points, and it's awfully difficult to outscore a prolific offense if you're relying on long sustained drives and have Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing on the occasional long 3rd down.
1) Recent history of close games, even when the Jets were a laughing-stock;
2) Strong NYJ start this season and the sense that this isn't the same bumbling organization with Rex gone;
3) Rash of injuries to the Pats' O-line, leading up to a game against a D we fear;
3-a) Traumatic memories of past juggernaut Pats teams derailed by strong pass rushes from the "other" NY team
I also think some people are getting a little carried away with their Ivory fear. Yes he's a beast, and he'll get his yards. I guarantee there will be times when I'll be screaming about how we're getting gashed. But I think the Pats are still going to put up some points, and it's awfully difficult to outscore a prolific offense if you're relying on long sustained drives and have Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing on the occasional long 3rd down.
For the life of me given the two teams performance against each other over the past couple of years, (close games) and the current environment (Pats banged up, Jets healthy) how the Pats are - 9 1/2. I thought this game was more a Pats -6 or -7 line, and that may be rich for what IMO will be a low scoring game.Papelbon's Poutine said:
Two most interesting lines of the week are in this game and USC/Utah.
Establishments are begging people to take the Jets and Utes. if you want a basis for optimism, that may be as solid a foundation as you'll get.
Pats/Jets line worth following thru tomorrow.
Establishments are begging people to take the Jets and Utes. if you want a basis for optimism, that may be as solid a foundation as you'll get.
Pats/Jets line worth following thru tomorrow.
Didn't BB do that back in '07? I recall reading that this was common for him to do... In a way it seemed like he was allowing offense to dictate, but on the other hand, you can have your top guys play a side they might prefer (if Revis has that) and you're thinning the play book by forcing them towards plays to the opposite side (theoretically). It might make it easier to scheme your D.NortheasternPJ said:
I'm not saying it is a good idea here, but I do think BB did things of that nature. Yam Bag talked about it.
Remember him? Weird...
I don't know how reliable this site is - http://www.scoresandodds.com/casinogrid.html?sort=rot - but they list the total money bet on the game as 60-40 Jets-Pats. In contrast Chiefs -3 has only 20% on the favorites with 80% coming in on Pitt.dcmissle said:
So even Pats -9 is not enough to get huge numbers of people to take the Jets.
I tend to agree with you that the spread most likely means bookies are begging people to take the Jets. But it could also be that everyone wants to bet the Pats this week and the sports books feel like they can steal a few extra points on the line while still getting a majority of Jets bets.
(I know sports books set their lines for value, not to equalize money. But points and total money are not totally linear so I could imagine there if there are many people that would take the Pats even at -14, it might be a value play for the books to push up the line)
The other fear factor for me at least is no Sheard/DH with their running game esp after the first game last year where they ran wild
Belichick has done it at times. Keeping the CB on one side has advantages. Seattle typically leaves their corners on one side as well. I'd say the biggest advantage is that you don't put players in unfamiliar spots. The Gronk touchdown in the Super Bowl is an example - Seattle had Sherman follow the CB to the slot on the left side, which left Gronk matched up one-on-one on a linebacker split out wide. If Seattle had left Sherman there, Gronk wouldn't have had such a favorable matchup. That likely would have left a LB on a WR on the slot on the other side, but the slot defender has more help.simplyeric said:
Jets have a completely different vibe without Rex. Almost feels like any other team now, the rivalry was Rex and Sanchize and all that bullshit.
I think it's more that other teams have sucked up all the ill will that would otherwise be directed at our nearest geographical rival.
I mean, I'm closer to liking the Jets than sharing the same level of disgust for them that I feel for the Colts.
I mean, I'm closer to liking the Jets than sharing the same level of disgust for them that I feel for the Colts.
Any lead on where to find data on how much money was bet?j44thor said:
I found this site which claims to aggregate data from various books.
http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart
The Pats plot is strange- more people are taking the Pats (moved from 60% to 55% Jets) as the line fell from -9 to -7.5. Which is what you'd expect if bookmakers were trying to drive action to the Pats by moving the line, but the opposite of what you'd expect if books were responding to bettors who have recently come in on the Jets.
http://account.sportsinsights.com/spreadbasic.aspx?sport_id=1&v_nss=459&v_date=10/25/2015>ype=4
If you look at the Tampa, Dallas, or Atlanta games the correlation moves in the opposite direction- the expected direction.
I'm not sure if the plots are percentages of numbers of bets or percentages of money bet, that could also explain it (i.e. sharp bets are few but big dollars).
In any case I give the Pats more than a 50% but less than an 80% chance to win. -7 is what I'd guess a fair line is, maybe -6. Pats are not as good as they've looked, OL is a potential danger and Jets secondary might be able to take away many quick routes. Plus Bowles and the new Jets discipline bodes well for them. On the other hand though Rex was good at getting the Jets up for the Pats and often they played down to other teams. Maybe Bowles has evened them out, but that might mean they are comparatively more prepared for other teams and less prepared for the Pats.
This game scares me.
Nah, I teased NE once it hit 8. Sharps were always going to buy this back but books were in a bad spot because they're going to get all the money on NE/Arizona teasers and get murdered if the pats win a close one. I never bet against the pats but wouldn't touch -9dcmissle said:
lexrageorge said:
I think a lot of this has to do with BB's strategy of taking away the opposing team's number one option. For example, it was pretty clear against Indy that BB was hyper focused on eliminating TY Hilton and Coby Fleener who basically did nothing (Hilton had 43 of his 69 yards in the 4th quarter when Indy was down 34-21, and Fleener had a total of 3 catches for 20 yards after having 9 receptions the week before) , and thus, there were holes available for Gore to exploit. In the Pittsburgh game, they were playing without Bell, and so BB put the focus on stopping the passing game and Big Ben, opening holes for DeAngelo Williams. On the flipside, BB punished the Jacksonville running backs, and put the onus on Bortles to beat them, and likewise with Dallas and Brandon Weeden (eliminating Witten). The Bills game is the one real anomaly, but it's skewed a bit because Tyrod Taylor had 43 yards on the ground himself, at an average of 8.6 pc, and a lot of the damage was done by the Bills when the game was pretty much out of hand.
I think BB will have the team focused this week on eliminating Ivory and Brandon Marshall, and forcing the Jets to beat them with guys like Decker and whoever the hell is playing tight end for them now. It's this extreme focus on taking away opponents strengths that leads to us scratching our heads when guys like Scott Chandler, or Dustin Keller or DeAngelo Williams put up big numbers against us out of nowhere.
I also think folks need to stop worrying so much about the Patriots defense early in games. The game threads are littered with people freaking out on the first couple defensive series about how we can't stop the run, or we can't get a pass rush. It's like folks haven't realized by now that BB doesn't throw many blitzes or exotic coverage packages out early on. Just like a lot of teams script their first 15 or so offensive plays before a game starts, BB seems to use that time on defense to get a feel for what the opponents are going to do. Then he writes his little notes with his pencil in his little notebook, adjusts and reacts to the opponent and voila, Pats win. It's a script that has played out many, many times and often times results in a long drive and points for the opponent early on, and very little thereafter.
Until the Patriots start losing games at home with any regularity, I have a hard time getting nervous about any of these games at Gillette. I was much, much more concerned about last week against Indy than I am this one, and I hope that's not misguided, but it's the truth. Having been present for literally hundreds of games, including dozens in which I heard folks talk about how they were uneasy or nervous pre-game, that resulted in the Patriots dominating the opponent and half the place filtering out in the third quarter, it's just gotten to the point where I'm probably way too confident about each game at home. If you eliminate the games like the last one last season, where the Pats were resting starters, does anyone know off hand how many games Brady and BB have lost in the last 14 years at home?
I respectfully disagree. You're basically saying the Patriots run defense was good against shitty running teams and allowed good running teams to run on them due to scheme.Deathofthebambino said:
I think its more likely that they are what they are. Can stop bad running teams, but will have trouble with good ones. Which makes them an average run defense.
I'm ok with that. You can win with an average run defense in today's NFL.
That's a real shame bc, give the jets particular strengths on D, the pass-catching RB is a role that might be more open than most to help move the ball.
Kenny F'ing Powers said:
That's not really true though. Would you consider the Colts a good running team, or a good passing team? When the Pats played Pittsburgh, they weren't a good running team (their offense line was decimated and Bell was suspended), yet the Pats struggled to stop the run against both of them. Whereas, Dallas has one of the best running games in football, but the Pats had one of their better run stopping games against them. Jacksonville is a bad running and bad passing team, but if choosing between which of the two is their strength and which is more exploitable, I think BB chose to stop the run and make Bortles beat them. I think ypc vs. a given opponent is a misleading stat when it comes to the Patriots. I think most defensive statistics for the Patriots are misleading to some extent, but when it comes to ypc, I believe it's more of a strategic decision than it is a function of how good or bad they are against the run.
The bottom line is that any team can stop the run and eliminate an opponents ypc, by simply throwing 9/10 men in the box. However, you do that at the risk of having the opponent throw all over you. It's very, very difficult to be great against both the pass and the run, and since BB got here, he's always focused on taking away an opponents' strengths and making them beat you another way, and in the first 6 games of the year, I think the numbers bear that out. I think today, you'll see the Pats focus on eliminating Ivory and trying to contain Marshall.
Now, if folks want to just look at the numbers and call the Pats an average run defense, and a bad passing defense, I'm fine with that. I just don't think either is true. I think they are what they need to be each given week in order to put themselves in a position to win. If the Pats start giving up big numbers to a guy like Ivory, when they are actually focusing on stopping him, that's when I'll concede they've got problems. That just hasn't happened yet.
GeorgeCostanza said:
Is that just a total of all home games since Brady became the starter? Does that include 2008, or the games like the end of last year when they basically didn't play to win and rested their starters for most of it? I'm actually surprised he's got 15 losses at home during that time period. I'd be hard pressed to find 5 of them that didn't involve games that the Pats were basically punting in the past 10 years or so.
I am feeling a statement day for Gronk and Julien! It will be a close game until the 3rd qtr and the hearts of Gangreen will be broken (again).
One thing for sure, Jets are for real and Bowles has this team headed in the right direction.
Injuries to Skrine, Pryor, Ivory (although it seems minor), and especially to Mangold will have to be closely watched.
Injuries to Skrine, Pryor, Ivory (although it seems minor), and especially to Mangold will have to be closely watched.
SeoulSoxFan said:
Clock management skills may hold Bowles back. Must have learned that under Andy Reid in 2012.
http://forums.theganggreen.com/threads/week-7-new-york-jets-vs-new-england-patriots-thread.85259/page-42
where post game discussion starts
where post game discussion starts
soxhop411 said:
For the most part, the thread is pretty standard GG fare, but I this one kind of stood out:
My mom "They should throw it downfield!"
Me "They won't. They'll call five yard passes."
*Cue two five yard passes in a row*
That's past - well, anything except sad
I don't think so. They may have a letdown / tough game there but Bowles has these guys focused. I expect them to stay in the race. They could still lose at Oak though.Ferm Sheller said:
Given the suckage in the league, they, like Denver will win games on the strength of their D, and Fitzy is ok at QB. Jets are most likely a WC team.nothumb said:
