Joe Kelly's Win Streak

AlNipper49

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Joe Kelly is 14-0 with a 3.82 ERA since Aug. 1, 2015. This matches him with the longest Red Sox win streak in modern history with Clemens' historic 1986 run.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Funny if you go to BRef and see most similar pitchers by age, #3 = Dice-K but #8 = John Farrell. I wonder if Farrell sees a kindred spirit each time he looks at JoeKe.
 

BaseballJones

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Joe Kelly is 14-0 with a 3.82 ERA since Aug. 1, 2015. This matches him with the longest Red Sox win streak in modern history with Clemens' historic 1986 run.
All he does is win.

Seriously, I wonder why Farrell seems to have so little faith in him. I thought at the end of the year last year he really showed something. But even with a ton of guys out, he seems like Farrell's last option.
 

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I thought that The Steamer had a year when he was 14-0. Looking at his baseball-reference page, I found out some interesting things:
  • It was 1978 that I was thinking of. He went 15-2, with 10 saves and a 2.60 ERA (ERA+ of 160). But his longest winning streak was 11 games.
  • He also had 8 saves during that streak. Not a single one of those saves was of the "Tony LaRussa Clean 9th Inning" type.
  • He twice finished 7th for Cy Young (78 and 82).
  • He received MVP votes three times (78, 82, and 83).
  • Two time All-Star (79 & 83)
  • Career ERA+ was 118
  • Career 115-97 with 132 saves
I think for many of us, our memory of him was the fateful Game 6 in 86, but he was a very useful player for most of his career.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I thought that The Steamer had a year when he was 14-0. Looking at his baseball-reference page, I found out some interesting things:
  • It was 1978 that I was thinking of. He went 15-2, with 10 saves and a 2.60 ERA (ERA+ of 160). But his longest winning streak was 11 games.
  • He also had 8 saves during that streak. Not a single one of those saves was of the "Tony LaRussa Clean 9th Inning" type.
  • He twice finished 7th for Cy Young (78 and 82).
  • He received MVP votes three times (78, 82, and 83).
  • Two time All-Star (79 & 83)
  • Career ERA+ was 118
  • Career 115-97 with 132 saves
I think for many of us, our memory of him was the fateful Game 6 in 86, but he was a very useful player for most of his career.
Steamer was also a guy who was rumoured to be more effective the more he pitched and he hadn't pitched in 3 days before game 6. Fun fact: he pitched five times in the '86 WS and didn't give up a run or an earned run.
 

Rasputin

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All he does is win.

Seriously, I wonder why Farrell seems to have so little faith in him. I thought at the end of the year last year he really showed something. But even with a ton of guys out, he seems like Farrell's last option.
I'm not sure I buy that.

Kelly has made five appearances. Three of them were either a tie (2) or within one run (1, -1). It includes two innings in the 12 inning game, two in the blowout loss to the O's where he came in with the game relatively close (-4) and 2.2 in the Pomeranz five inning ten K game. He's had two four day breaks, once with the flu and once after the 44 pitch outing in the O's blowout.

I don't think that's indicative of being Farrell's last option. I think that's indicative of being the relief ace we've been wanting for 20 years. Need a guy to pitch multiple mid-to -late innings, that can come in with men on base, and who can be relied upon to keep the game close most of the time? That's what Joe Kelly has done so far.
 

HriniakPosterChild

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The TV guys at the time talked about it like it was an accepted fact.
Derek Lowe, for one, didn't buy it.

DL: Did pitching on two days of rest help your sinker?

Lowe: I don’t believe in that. I would much rather pitch at full strength. You still need your legs under you, and you still need your arm in the right arm slot. If you get too tired, your ball doesn’t move anymore. I promise you. They should do that on the show Myth Busters, because it’s not true.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/qa-derek-lowe-on-game-7-of-the-2004-alcs/
 

EddieYost

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Derek Lowe, for one, didn't buy it.
To be fair, as I recall, the context was around his usage as a reliever. He felt like he was more effective if he was used a lot out of the bullpen. When he hadn't worked in a few days, he felt "too strong".

At least that is how I remember it.
 

BaseballJones

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I'm not sure I buy that.

Kelly has made five appearances. Three of them were either a tie (2) or within one run (1, -1). It includes two innings in the 12 inning game, two in the blowout loss to the O's where he came in with the game relatively close (-4) and 2.2 in the Pomeranz five inning ten K game. He's had two four day breaks, once with the flu and once after the 44 pitch outing in the O's blowout.

I don't think that's indicative of being Farrell's last option. I think that's indicative of being the relief ace we've been wanting for 20 years. Need a guy to pitch multiple mid-to -late innings, that can come in with men on base, and who can be relied upon to keep the game close most of the time? That's what Joe Kelly has done so far.
In the 12 inning game, Kelly was their 5th reliever used, after Barnes, Kimbrel, Hembree, and Scott. If he was their "relief ace", he wouldn't have been 5th in line.

He pitched an inning in a blowout win, and two in a blowout loss. Hardly the times to use a "relief ace".

And then he came in as the middle reliever to pick up Pomeranz, in the 5th inning, Sox down a run, and went 2.2 innings in that one.

So in only one of his five appearances (on April 7) did he make an appearance that could remotely be considered in a spot where a "relief ace" would have pitched. But even THEN, he really wasn't.

The 8th inning began with the Sox up 5-4. Hembree came in to start the 8th, and he proceeded to strike out two and then walk two. I'm sure the plan was for Hembree to get through the 8th unscathed, but those two walks did him in. In comes Scott to face Mahtook, who promptly doubled in a run. Then, and only then, did Farrell bring in Kelly, who promptly walked two guys to force in a run before getting out of the inning. If Hembree or Scott did their jobs, Kelly never sees the mound that day.

So in precisely ZERO of these appearances was Kelly treated like a "relief ace".
 

Cesar Crespo

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What has he done this year to be treated like a relief ace especially when given the other options?
 

phenweigh

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I recall Roger Moret vulturing quite a few wins. In 1973 he went 13-2 and in 1975 he went 14-3. Both years he started and relieved.
 

Rasputin

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In the 12 inning game, Kelly was their 5th reliever used, after Barnes, Kimbrel, Hembree, and Scott. If he was their "relief ace", he wouldn't have been 5th in line.
Not sure I buy that. Sale pitched seven. Barnes is clearly the 8th inning guy, and at home, the closer pitches the ninth in tie games. They went matchups for the tenth, then went to Kelly in the 11th. I guess you could argue that a true relief ace would have been used in regulation, but we know that's never going to happen when you have established 8th and 9th inning guys, and it's been made pretty clear by usage since that Farrell considers Barnes the 8th inning guy.

He pitched an inning in a blowout win, and two in a blowout loss. Hardly the times to use a "relief ace".
The inning he pitched in the 8-1 game was his first appearance in four days and came after he was sick and while other folks were sick. I'm not sure how being one of the relatively few competent pitchers who weren't puking regularly makes him not a relief ace.

He didn't come into a blowout loss. Wright barfed up a bunch of runs and was replaced in the second inning by a sacrificial lamb, but Taylor pitched well and even Abad had a scoreless inning. Meanwhile, the offense scored five runs to cut the deficit to a relatively reasonable four runs. Kelly turned it back into a blowout by pitching poorly.

And then he came in as the middle reliever to pick up Pomeranz, in the 5th inning, Sox down a run, and went 2.2 innings in that one.
Sounds like a relief ace outing to me. The game is close, the starter clearly struggling, and with runners on base it could very quickly get unclose.

So in only one of his five appearances (on April 7) did he make an appearance that could remotely be considered in a spot where a "relief ace" would have pitched. But even THEN, he really wasn't.

The 8th inning began with the Sox up 5-4. Hembree came in to start the 8th, and he proceeded to strike out two and then walk two. I'm sure the plan was for Hembree to get through the 8th unscathed, but those two walks did him in. In comes Scott to face Mahtook, who promptly doubled in a run. Then, and only then, did Farrell bring in Kelly, who promptly walked two guys to force in a run before getting out of the inning. If Hembree or Scott did their jobs, Kelly never sees the mound that day.
As you may or may not recall,Kelly had the proverbial flu like symptoms so I'm sure Farrell was trying to stay away from him entirely.

So in precisely ZERO of these appearances was Kelly treated like a "relief ace".
You clearly have a different definition of relief ace than I do because the April 16 game is exactly how a relief ace is going to be used. The game is on the line, but it's not the late innings. I'd argue that in extras with your regular late game relievers exhausted is also right in the relief ace wheelhouse, as is the Wright game.

I mean, we're never going to get the platonic ideal of a relief ace. It's just not going to happen. You're going to have designated 8th and 9th inning guys. You're going to have designated matchup guys. Farrell's use of Kelly so far suggests that Kelly is the guy Farrell's going to go to when the game is on the line and either it's not the late innings, or the late inning guys have already been used. The guy who pitches when the game is on the line and it's not the 8th and 9th is the definition of a relief ace.

What has he done this year to be treated like a relief ace especially when given the other options?
You mean other than pitch well?

Eight innings. Five hits. Three walks. 1.000 WHIP. Two runs allowed. 2.25 ERA.

He had a shitty outing in Detroit where he walked two guys and only got one out. He was sick at the time.

He had a shitty outing against Baltimore where he allowed two runs on three hits.

He's allowed two of four inherited runners to score.

He also pitched two scoreless innings in the 12 inning game, One scoreless inning against the Orioles, and 2.2 scoreless against Tampa Bay when Pomeranz got chased early.

He obviously hasn't been perfect, but he's allowed his own runs in precisely one game. He could go belly up soon, but the guy is pitching well and if Farrell continues to use him in situations where the game is on the line, in innings other than the 8th and 9th, I'm totally okay with it.
 

BaseballJones

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If Kelly was their "relief ace", why on earth didn't he pitch *last night*?

Johnson went 5 innings, and the Sox held a 6-4 lead. So they still had to get 4 innings' worth of outs. Kimbrel was not available, so Barnes was going to be the 9th inning guy (he pitched poorly in that role, but whatever). That left the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings in a game where the Sox held a marginal lead entering the 6th.

The first guy they bring in - in a spot that you just defined was the quintessential "relief ace" role - was NOT Joe Kelly. It was Hembree. Now one, not knowing what happened the day before, and thinking that Kelly really is their "relief ace", might have thought that Kelly was used the day before so was not really available for last night's game.

Au contraire.

Kelly did not pitch in Monday's 4-3 win over Tampa. That was a game the Sox led 4-2 after two innings, and had to get 3 innings out of their bullpen because Wright went 6 innings. Instead of using Kelly in those "relief ace" innings, they went with Ross, rookie Ben Taylor (!), and then Hembree, to bridge the gap to Kimbrel. No sign of Joe Kelly. Maybe that was because Kelly had pitched 2.2 innings the day before, which would be a fair counter. But then it would have meant Kelly was available last night, having had a day off, while Hembree had pitched the night before.

So last night, in an ideal "relief ace" spot, despite having had the previous day off, and despite Hembree having pitched the previous day, it was Hembree who they brought into the game in the 6th. He went 2 innings. Then Abad and Barnes finished the game.

So the Sox have had many spots where a "relief ace" should have been used, if Farrell was thinking along those lines. And in only *one* of those spots could we remotely suggest that Kelly was the guy used in that role.

So I grant that it's possible that you and I are seeing this differently, even in terms of what a relief ace is. I'm trying to use your criteria (as best as I can), and I still only see one instance where it could even be argued that Kelly was used in that role.

The thing is, I think he SHOULD be used in that role. He seems to be pitching very well. But it doesn't appear that Farrell is thinking of him that way. He seems like the quintessential...... middle reliever.
 

AB in DC

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Per Farrell, Kelly was unavailable last night. The implication was that he's still recovering from the 2 2/3 innings in the Pomeranz game from Saturday.

So, yeah, he's basically filling the role of long relief right now.
 

lexrageorge

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I don't know if Kelly is the "relief ace", and I don't believe he is a better pitcher out of the pen than Kimbrel (I realize noone has claimed this. I'm only bringing up Kimbrel as he's probably the best reliever on the team and therefore could be called the "relief ace").

However, Kelly's usage does seem to indicate that Farrell perhaps views him as the "jack of all trades relief ace" that can go multiple innings when needed. And at this point in the season, I cannot argue with Farrell being cautious using him after a multiple inning outing in a high leverage situation.
 

BaseballJones

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I respect Ras a lot, but I just don't see the argument that Kelly is, in any way, shape, or form, their "relief ace". He seems like one of the last guys Farrell goes to in tight spots.
 

joe dokes

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One of the problems here is the definition of terms. We've got a "closer," an "8th inning guy," a LOOGY, a BORAT, and A Bad. So, assuming everyone is relatively available, what do you call Kelly? "1st out of the pen if the game is winnable after the 5th and before the 8th"? FOOP?
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Noe Ramirez is a FOOP.

Farrell's
Optionable
Outmatched
Pitcher

Kelly is more like a CHUFFER.

CHerington's
Unreliably
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chawson

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Just noticed Joe Kelly's K rate is wayyyy down (one on the year in 30 batters faced).

Velo seems fine. Can anyone tell what's going on? SSS?
 

Rasputin

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So the Sox have had many spots where a "relief ace" should have been used, if Farrell was thinking along those lines. And in only *one* of those spots could we remotely suggest that Kelly was the guy used in that role.

So I grant that it's possible that you and I are seeing this differently, even in terms of what a relief ace is. I'm trying to use your criteria (as best as I can), and I still only see one instance where it could even be argued that Kelly was used in that role.

The thing is, I think he SHOULD be used in that role. He seems to be pitching very well. But it doesn't appear that Farrell is thinking of him that way. He seems like the quintessential...... middle reliever.
Three.

Twelve inning game. The game Wright barfed up, and the other one I mentioned earlier that I don't feel like looking up again.
 

BaseballJones

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Three.

Twelve inning game. The game Wright barfed up, and the other one I mentioned earlier that I don't feel like looking up again.
I guess you and I have a difference of opinion as to what situation a "relief ace" would have been brought in then. When you're down 4 runs in the 7th inning in a non-must-win game, I don't see that as a time to bring in your "relief ace". He was neither preserving a lead nor entering a close game. Four runs in the 7th is classic mop up duty. Maybe if they were UP four runs....*maybe*.

The 12 inning game...well...all I can say is that he could have been brought into a tie game in the 8th, but they chose Barnes. He could have been brought into a tie game in the 9th, but they brought in Kimbrel. Maybe you say, yeah, well, those were those guys' designated roles and you don't want to mess with that, and maybe I could grant you that. But surely in the 10th, they bring him in because as the "relief ace", he's the next best pitcher. Nope. Hembree gets the nod. It wasn't until they burned through three other guys that Kelly *finally* got a chance to pitch. If the Sox' offense had scored one measly run in 10 innings, Kelly would never have pitched a single pitch in the game.

So honestly, I don't consider either of those games to be examples where his usage smacks of "relief ace". So in my opinion, that leaves one game where he's pitched in a "relief ace" role.

If we go game-by-game, I think we can see many opportunities to use Kelly in a "relief ace" role but they didn't.

Game 1 - vs Pit. 7th inning, up 5-3, Porcello pulled after 6 innings. Ideal spot for a "relief ace". Farrell goes with Barnes, not Kelly. After Barnes, Farrell uses Scott. Then in the 8th, it's not Kelly then, either. It's Hembree. Finally, Kimbrel to close it out in the 9th. Relief ace opportunity, but Kelly isn't used.

Game 2 - vs Pit. The 12 inning game referenced above. Kelly could have been used in the 8th or 9th or 10th, but he was the *sixth* Boston pitcher used instead. Relief ace opportunity, but Kelly isn't used until much later, when they got deeper into their bullpen.

Game 3 - vs Det. Sox make a great 8th inning comeback to go up 5-4. Kelly isn't brought in. Was he tired? No, as we shall see in a moment. Instead, it was Hembree. Hembree gets two K's, then gives up two walks. Then Scott comes in. And only after both of those guys fails, does Kelly come in. Why not use Kelly FIRST? Relief ace opportunity, but Kelly isn't used until two other guys fail to do their jobs.

Game 4 - vs Det. Down 4-1 in the 6th. By your way of thinking, this would be a good time for a "relief ace". Not Kelly. Instead, Ben Taylor. In the 7th, still down 4-1, they bring in Noe Ramirez, not Kelly, who doesn't pitch at all. Relief ace opportunity, but Kelly isn't used.

Game 5 - vs Det. Tied at 3 in the 7th. Porcello still on. Gives up a homer and a single. Still relief ace time, right, just down one run? Kelly time. Nope. Barnes instead. Barnes goes two innings, in fact. The 7th when they're down, and then in the 8th, after they've taken the lead. Kimbrel closes it out in the 9th. Relief ace opportunity, but Kelly isn't used.

Game 6 - vs Det. Tied at 1 in the 8th. Sale gives up a run putting Det up 2-1. With two outs, they bring in a relief pitcher. Perfect time for a "relief ace". Not Kelly though. Nope. Not even Barnes, the "8th inning guy". It's Hembree again. Relief ace opportunity, but Kelly isn't used.

Game 9 - vs Pit. Sox down 2-1 in the 6th. EdRo puts two on with one out. Perfect "relief ace" time. Kelly, right? Nope. Hembree again. Lets an inherited runner score. Finishes the inning. Then the 6th. Still "relief ace" time. No Kelly. Hembree for another inning. Then in the 8th, it's Barnes. The Sox take the lead and Kimbrel closes it out. Relief ace opportunity, but Kelly isn't used.

Game 11 - vs TB. Sale is great. Sox up 2-1 in the 8th. Barnes and Kimbrel finish the job. Maybe not a "relief ace" role, if you're going to say that the 8th inning is reserved for Barnes.

Game 12 - vs TB. Up 5-4 in the 6th. Pomeranz gets through 5, and up a run, perfect "relief ace" spot. And YES! Kelly comes in. Goes 2 scoreless. Barnes and Kimbrel close it out. Relief ace opportunity, and Kelly is used.

Game 13 - vs TB. Sox up 4-2 in the 7th. Wright puts a runner on and is lifted for a reliever. Perfect "relief ace" spot. But no Kelly. That's fair...he worked 2 innings the game before. Instead, Ross and Taylor and Hembree bridge the gap to Kimbrel. Relief ace opportunity, but Kelly isn't used.

Game 14 - vs Tor. Sox up 6-4 in the 6th. Perfect "relief ace" opportunity. But no Kelly. Instead, it's Hembree in the 6th. And again in the 7th. Abad and Barnes finish it up. Kelly maybe unavailable again because of the outing in game 12. Relief ace opportunity, but Kelly isn't used.

So in their 14 games, I think a "relief ace" opportunity presented itself in 10 of those games, and Kelly was used as the "relief ace" in just one of them. And in Kelly's 5 appearances, *I* only see him being used as the "relief ace" in 1 of them (MAYBE 2 if you count the 12 inning game in which he was actually the 6th pitcher used).

Again, maybe you see it differently but I don't see the argument for it.
 

Rovin Romine

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It's easier to count backwards with Farrell.

If there's a tie or a save-ish situation 9th inning then Kimbrel.
Barnes 8th.
Hembree 7th.

That's it, very simple. If Farrell thought Kelly were actually some kind of relief ace, he'd promptly plonk him in the 8th inning spot and be done with it.