Loses its mind? Please.Yeah this is silly. We’ve had one B2B so far and Horford didn’t play. We’ve played 7 games and he’s played 25 min or fewer in 4 of them. We go to OT in one game and this board loses its mind lol.
Loses its mind? Please.Yeah this is silly. We’ve had one B2B so far and Horford didn’t play. We’ve played 7 games and he’s played 25 min or fewer in 4 of them. We go to OT in one game and this board loses its mind lol.
I wouldn't say anyone is losing their mind - I get the concerns, I just think they're misplaced. Anecdotal and all, but I work out a ton and one hard day never kills me. Now, I'm not as old as Al, but I am 1 year out of heart surgery, so I imagine that levels things out . It's when I go out and try to bust my ass two or three days in a row that I wake up with joint pain and brain fog and all the signs of an overloaded system. That's when you start being at greater risk for injuries.Yeah this is silly. We’ve had one B2B so far and Horford didn’t play. We’ve played 7 games and he’s played 25 min or fewer in 4 of them. We go to OT in one game and this board loses its mind lol.
The buried lede here is that you had heart surgery and are kicking ass. Everything else is gravy.I wouldn't say anyone is losing their mind - I get the concerns, I just think they're misplaced. Anecdotal and all, but I work out a ton and one hard day never kills me. Now, I'm not as old as Al, but I am 1 year out of heart surgery, so I imagine that levels things out . It's when I go out and try to bust my ass two or three days in a row that I wake up with joint pain and brain fog and all the signs of an overloaded system. That's when you start being at greater risk for injuries.
Last year the main thing that kept them from a Championship was being run into the ground. Part of that was the staggering number of minutes the rotation played in the regular season. A lot of it was refusing to tank at the end for way more favorable seeding - when given the chance to rest key players, Udoka and/or the front office decided it was better to keep them tuned up and playoff ready, and as a result they had by far the most grueling playoff schedule, and looked completely wasted by the Finals.The buried lede here is that you had heart surgery and are kicking ass. Everything else is gravy.
That said, you had heart surgery in 2021? And you made it through last year?
Back to the minutes, I understand the concerns people have here but I just find it difficult to imagine that say, Horford, who almost certainly has one goal this season, let alone the Cs, who are likely aligned with Al's objective, to the regular season get in the way if they can avoid it.
However some folks really feel like Mazzulla, like Udoka and Stevens before them, is running the team into the ground. Maybe they will be proven correct but I would like to think this is something everyone with the team watches closely.
I remember hearing a stat that if you're one of the handful of people on the planet who is 7 feet tall, you have a 1 in 6 chance of playing in the NBA. Doesn't mean you'll be Shaq, but you'll get a shot.This came up in the offseason when one poster (for the life of me I forget who it was) was adamant that backup bigs grow on trees. I’ve always promoted that this is one of the most difficult positions to fill as the player pool of 7-foot tall men in this world who can compete in an NBA game is extremely small. We are seeing an example of that right now.
FWIW, I never realized how tall 7’ really was until one day I was checking in at the reception desk at the American Airlines Admiral’s Club at Logan Airport. Next to me was Bill Walton (Kevin McHale was inducted into the B-Ball HoF over the prior weekend). Seven feet is fucking tall.I remember hearing a stat that if you're one of the handful of people on the planet who is 7 feet tall, you have a 1 in 6 chance of playing in the NBA. Doesn't mean you'll be Shaq, but you'll get a shot.
If they put the upper 1/6th of athletes who are my size on the NBA court, as opposed to the usual upper 0.00001%, I imagine they'd look about as awkward as most NBA bigs do while lumbering around with all these athletic freaks around them.
My dad and I was in line behind Hank Finkel at a K-mart in Scarborough, ME in about 1979 and he's far and away the tallest human being I've ever seen in person. Still sticks with me.FWIW, I never realized how tall 7’ really was until one day I was checking in at the reception desk at the American Airlines Admiral’s Club at Logan Airport. Next to me was Bill Walton (Kevin McHale was inducted into the B-Ball HoF over the prior weekend). Seven feet is fucking tall.
I had not been around 7-footers since my playing days (3 of them semi-regularly) but one guy in our poker room played for Carnesecca at St Johns. My sleuth work found that he was listed at 7-2 in college. He’s tall.FWIW, I never realized how tall 7’ really was until one day I was checking in at the reception desk at the American Airlines Admiral’s Club at Logan Airport. Next to me was Bill Walton (Kevin McHale was inducted into the B-Ball HoF over the prior weekend). Seven feet is fucking tall.
Bite your tongue! Bill Walton was only 6'11" you hater!FWIW, I never realized how tall 7’ really was until one day I was checking in at the reception desk at the American Airlines Admiral’s Club at Logan Airport. Next to me was Bill Walton (Kevin McHale was inducted into the B-Ball HoF over the prior weekend). Seven feet is fucking tall.
The problem tonight vs the Heat wasn't the rotation, who had performed admirably under the trying circumstances. It was that nobody had any ideas on what action to run and were drained mentally and physically. If you want them to summon the energy for one good possession at the end of the game, you need to let them catch their breath for a minute, and tell them what to run so they don't have to think as much.The Celtics are on the back end of a back to back and gassed. They literally have nobody they can play. 4 of their top 6 players are out. Really not sure what mazz can do at this point.
CJM should also call a TO at the end because 80% of the closing lineup (MB, MS, JB, AH) isn't even dressed, so there is no long-term benefit to "letting them figure it out on their own".Mazzulla's machismo about not calling timeouts to "let the players figure it out on the floor" has finally bit us in the ass good and hard.
The problem tonight vs the Heat wasn't the rotation, who had performed admirably under the trying circumstances. It was that nobody had any ideas on what action to run and were drained mentally and physically. If you want them to summon the energy for one good possession at the end of the game, you need to let them catch their breath for a minute, and tell them what to run so they don't have to think as much.
And then maybe use only half of those 16 seconds they had, such that if they miss, they still have a prayer to foul and tie. With our high BBIQ vets (Horford and Smart) out, the person who needed to make everyone aware of the situation was the coach.
This was a winnable game, and our coach didn't lose it for us, but he didn't put us in the best position to win.
Part of the issue on this play is that they didn't want Miami to be able to sub. Right or wrong, that was a motivation.Mazzulla's machismo about not calling timeouts to "let the players figure it out on the floor" has finally bit us in the ass good and hard.
The problem tonight vs the Heat wasn't the rotation, who had performed admirably under the trying circumstances. It was that nobody had any ideas on what action to run and were drained mentally and physically. If you want them to summon the energy for one good possession at the end of the game, you need to let them catch their breath for a minute, and tell them what to run so they don't have to think as much.
And then maybe use only half of those 16 seconds they had, such that if they miss, they still have a prayer to foul and tie. With our high BBIQ vets (Horford and Smart) out, the person who needed to make everyone aware of the situation was the coach.
This was a winnable game, and our coach didn't lose it for us, but he didn't put us in the best position to win.
They lost a game in January. No one on either side will remember this game a month from now. Calling a timeout might have changed the chance of winning there from 25% to 30%, idk.Mazzulla's machismo about not calling timeouts to "let the players figure it out on the floor" has finally bit us in the ass good and hard.
...
For me, it's more about it being a preview of how Mazzulla will think when the chips are down. If he flips a switch and does a full Playoff Tito, like that old SNL Reagan mastermind sketch, OK fine. But the evidence we have before us at the moment is that he'll be paralyzed by the moment when something isn't working and we're giving up a long run, and I haven't seen a lot of creativity in ATO plays either. It's a valid concern.I agree with the criticism of the timeout usage. Referring to it as coaching malpractice or getting anything other than annoyed with it seems a lot extra given where we are in the calendar and how well the team has done overall.
Except he wasn’t paralyzed by the moment. He made an active choice to prevent Miami from subbing. Maybe it was not our preferred decision, but there was a thought process behind it.Moving from the game thread:
For me, it's more about it being a preview of how Mazzulla will think when the chips are down. If he flips a switch and does a full Playoff Tito, like that old SNL Reagan mastermind sketch, OK fine. But the evidence we have before us at the moment is that he'll be paralyzed by the moment when something isn't working and we're giving up a long run, and I haven't seen a lot of creativity in ATO plays either. It's a valid concern.
Maybe it's questionable decision-making reflecting shortcomings as a coach. (although not letting Miami make subs seems like a valid reason to me). But "machismo"? seriously? Letting others figure it out is the opposite of "machismo."Mazzulla's machismo about not calling timeouts to "let the players figure it out on the floor" has finally bit us in the ass good and hard.
I thought the decision not to call a TO on the final play was correct last night. We had the ball in Tatum’s hands which is what we wanted……the Heat were forced to keep Herro on the floor rather than being able to sub likely Robinson for him. Why would we call a TO to allow them to substitute their preferred personnel? A similar situation happened a week or two ago in a Laker/Sixers game when Westbrook had Embiid in iso 25-feet from the basket and after he lost his handle (and the game) everyone was killing Ham for not calling a timeout when they had the ideal matchup.Part of the issue on this play is that they didn't want Miami to be able to sub. Right or wrong, that was a motivation.
I don't think Mazzulla's decision not to call time excuses Tatum for throwing the ball away. Your best player should be able to not do that in any situation.
The issue with Mazzulla and timeouts is conflating a few different things. Timeouts to stop a run vs. timeouts to set up a play vs. timeouts because you have a guy down on the floor and your ballhandler is being blitzed and is about to turn it over. Not all the same.
Even if that was the right choice, and in my opinion it wasn’t, he needed to call one when Tatum waved away the screen. Whatever “play” they were running was already dead and they needed to organize and run something quickly that would get a shot away. The double was cemented and Tatum was in a position that was easy to trap.Except he wasn’t paralyzed by the moment. He made an active choice to prevent Miami from subbing. Maybe it was not our preferred decision, but there was a thought process behind it.
He's been quoted as saying he's not calling TOs to, essentially, toughen the players up, and have them not think they can rely on a mental break to reset. "This'll learn ya!" is not exactly the motivating principle I'm looking for. If neither Belichick nor Terry Francona nor (in basketball) Popovich would take that approach, I find it hard to justify with some sort of coaching theory.Maybe it's questionable decision-making reflecting shortcomings as a coach. (although not letting Miami make subs seems like a valid reason to me). But "machismo"? seriously? Letting others figure it out is the opposite of "machismo."
I think this is a mischaracterization, and an unfair one.He's been quoted as saying he's not calling TOs to, essentially, toughen the players up, and have them not think they can rely on a mental break to reset. "This'll learn ya!" is not exactly the motivating principle I'm looking for. If neither Belichick nor Terry Francona nor (in basketball) Popovich would take that approach, I find it hard to justify with some sort of coaching theory.
There are some variations on that theme that have some social proof and history behind them. For example, Geno Auriemma's general demeanor with his team is to focus on the negatives up until about February ("break them down"), and then focus on the team's strengths and positives from then through the NCAA tournament ("build them back up"). His players have been quoted as thinking they're the worst team in the country up until February each year, and after that being made to think they're the best team in the country. There's some method to that madness, especially given that the learning curve with college players is just very different than with seasoned pros.
And maybe I'm thick and don't know ball like the rest of you, but I just don't see the same method here, only madness dressed up as "toughening them up".
Do you have any statistical evidence that calling a timeout during an opponent's run leads to better outcomes than letting the players play through it? If not, your characterization is definitely twisting Mazzulla's words into your own narrative.He's been quoted as saying he's not calling TOs to, essentially, toughen the players up, and have them not think they can rely on a mental break to reset. "This'll learn ya!" is not exactly the motivating principle I'm looking for. If neither Belichick nor Terry Francona nor (in basketball) Popovich would take that approach, I find it hard to justify with some sort of coaching theory.
There are some variations on that theme that have some social proof and history behind them. For example, Geno Auriemma's general demeanor with his team is to focus on the negatives up until about February ("break them down"), and then focus on the team's strengths and positives from then through the NCAA tournament ("build them back up"). His players have been quoted as thinking they're the worst team in the country up until February each year, and after that being made to think they're the best team in the country. There's some method to that madness, especially given that the learning curve with college players is just very different than with seasoned pros.
And maybe I'm thick and don't know ball like the rest of you, but I just don't see the same method here, only madness dressed up as "toughening them up".
This is a fair post. I hope that ultimately you're right and I'm wrong - and I particularly hope that we see a different approach in the playoffs.I think this is a mischaracterization, and an unfair one.
I'm going to leave further back-and-forth on the narrative (and my armchair psychoanalysis) aside, and focus just on your question, since it's both interesting, valuable to understanding the game, and strikes me as answerable.Do you have any statistical evidence that calling a timeout during an opponent's run leads to better outcomes than letting the players play through it? If not, your characterization is definitely twisting Mazzulla's words into your own narrative.
Vice, Dec 2015:While cutting his teeth as a coach in England, where he spent more than a decade leading a handful of clubs that no longer exist, Nurse would watch Phil Jackson's Bulls over and over and over. He absorbed how Jackson used to let his teams play through painful runs and course-correct on the fly. "I've got a little bit of that in my blood," Nurse says. "There are times when I think I should probably call one. Then I say, 'No, no, let 'em figure it out. Let 'em go through it.' I probably do that a little more than maybe I'd like to, to be honest."
Warriors coach Steve Kerr won three championships in five seasons on Jackson's Bulls; he subscribes to his former coach's strategy. "It's good for a team to get itself out of a ditch instead of relying on a timeout and grumbling at each other," he says. "Let's communicate, get all five guys [working] together and execute a play. And if they can do that on their own, it's very empowering."
...
Stevens led a team that's finished with the third-fewest timeouts this season and the second fewest in 2017-18. "If I had my druthers I would always choose to run against a defense that's not set, or execute with an action you feel like is great at that moment without calling a timeout," he says. "I would always prefer that."
So what about actual scientific approaches to the question?Numbers support the idea that NBA coaches aren't dramatically affecting games with their ingenious timeout play-calling. An analysis of the play-by-play data compiled at NylonCalculus.com reveals that after-timeout plays (ATO) over the past six seasons average 0.836 points per play—notably less efficient than other half-court plays, which average about 0.885 points per play. This may be due to the fact that by definition ATO plays start from a dead ball, and dead-ball plays are the league's least efficient.
"After a timeout, you're always five-on-five against a set defense," said O'Koren. "Defensive coaching around the league is good, and while you have time to set your offensive play, the opponent has time to plan their defense."
Thanks for reading me charitably! I'm interested myself to see if it works in the long run. It seems like a novel approach for sure.This is a fair post. I hope that ultimately you're right and I'm wrong - and I particularly hope that we see a different approach in the playoffs.
Great post.I'm going to leave further back-and-forth on the narrative (and my armchair psychoanalysis) aside, and focus just on your question, since it's both interesting, valuable to understanding the game, and strikes me as answerable.
SI, May 2019: Lots of coaches go on record talking about the times they've let it ride, particularly at the very end of the game, and seen players execute and win. D'Antoni asserts: "There are no analytics that really proves that if you call a timeout, it stops the run of the other team," he says. "Actually, there's evidence that doesn't support that." Or some other prominent names:
Vice, Dec 2015:
So what about actual scientific approaches to the question?
Econ PhD Thesis on the subject, 2011: "This paper explores the claim that timeouts enhance short-term performance following a series of negative events". It covered a sample of ~3700 games from 2006-2009. Its conclusions: once you control for the fact that a team calling timeout after giving up a run starts the next possession with the ball, and for home-court advantage generally, there is a small positive effect of timeouts for momentum-stopping purposes, with teams scoring ~0.5 more out of the next 10 points scored than the similarly-situated teams who did not call timeout. However, there's also plenty of mean reversion: teams who give up runs tend to outscore their opponent following those runs anyway, rather than let it continue to snowball, as you would frankly expect with the results of possessions being fully stochastic.
arXiv paper July 2021: these guys conclude the opposite, or rather, have a stronger conclusion based on asking the question better. Using what seems like a better technique, they conclude that letting players play through it is more advantageous than calling a timeout.
Based on those, I think we can agree that me drawing a conclusion in the other direction was largely bullshit. Thanks for sending me in that direction.
Yup. This is more of a player issue for me. If Tatum wants to hoist a trophy, he needs to close better. I think Joe is giving him the rope to figure it out, even if the results haven’t been great lately. It’s the biggest concern I have for this team outside of general health.Great post.
One thing to keep in mind is that this team has struggled to close out games for several years now, notably in the playoffs last year. It lead to series going on longer than needed and a more fatigued team at the end. This has gone on through 3 coaches, all of whom seem to know what they are doing.
I think it’s important to recognize that most teams struggle to close out games……bc closing out NBA games against end of game defense is really freakin hard.Great post.
One thing to keep in mind is that this team has struggled to close out games for several years now, notably in the playoffs last year. It lead to series going on longer than needed and a more fatigued team at the end. This has gone on through 3 coaches, all of whom seem to know what they are doing.
ha, beat you to it by one postI think it’s important to recognize that most teams struggle to close out games……bc closing out NBA games against end of game defense is really freakin hard.
Yes, if anything, I think Tatum is now trying to do the right thing, trust his teammates, and not force hero ball at the end. He has been successful at it lately, but last night just didn't make the right read at the end with the pass. He used to just go 1-on-3 or -4 and have some ridiculously impossible shot. Seems to be growing, to me.I think it’s important to recognize that most teams struggle to close out games……bc closing out NBA games against end of game defense is really freakin hard.
Ranking of toughest things to beat…..ha, beat you to it by one post
These people just need to look at this Twitter account regularly: https://mobile.twitter.com/notjustyourteamIf you're going to handwring after a B2B road loss, missing 4 of the top 7 guys, the NBA regular season just might not be the sport for you. (general statement; I'm not subtweeting anyone in particular)
Many Celtics fans are operating with a “championship or bust” mentality and I think we’re hypersensitive to any perceived issues. This franchise has been so incredibly close the last 5 years and I think that plays into the angst. Clearly, this is a very good team that should have a great shot of winning it all, if health persists.These people just need to look at this Twitter account regularly: https://mobile.twitter.com/notjustyourteam
I think part of the issue is that most Celtics fans, and most NBA fans in general, just pay attention to their own team and end up creating dumb narratives about their teams (the Mazzulla timeout thing is talk radio slop for hogs who think they're smarter than an NBA coach, for instance). These fans aren't really looking at the rest of the league. Every team in the league blows late/2nd half leads, it's documented by the account above. It's especially silly to get upset about it when you're missing the majority of your rotation on the 2nd night of a back-to-back on the road. That makes it seem like some people go in with the expectation that the Celtics should win every regular season game, regardless of any context, and if they don't, it proves that they're mentally weak or the coach is stupid.
4. The Orlando MagicRanking of toughest things to beat…..
3. End of game NBA defense
2. NBA betting market
1. SoSH posters to the punch
Its not just that some people appear to expect an undefeated season. It extends to in game execution where anything less than perfection and aesthetically pleasing basketball results in heavy complaints. Meanwhile, to your point, this season the Cs are better than most other teams at this stuff though you wouldn't know it from the narratives.These people just need to look at this Twitter account regularly: https://mobile.twitter.com/notjustyourteam
I think part of the issue is that most Celtics fans, and most NBA fans in general, just pay attention to their own team and end up creating dumb narratives about their teams (the Mazzulla timeout thing is talk radio slop for hogs who think they're smarter than an NBA coach, for instance). These fans aren't really looking at the rest of the league. Every team in the league blows late/2nd half leads, it's documented by the account above. It's especially silly to get upset about it when you're missing the majority of your rotation on the 2nd night of a back-to-back on the road. That makes it seem like some people go in with the expectation that the Celtics should win every regular season game, regardless of any context, and if they don't, it proves that they're mentally weak or the coach is stupid.
Great point. I was just trying to create context for "malpractice" crowd.I think it’s important to recognize that most teams struggle to close out games……bc closing out NBA games against end of game defense is really freakin hard.
Thanks for all this, wow!! Excellent data!I'm going to leave further back-and-forth on the narrative (and my armchair psychoanalysis) aside, and focus just on your question, since it's both interesting, valuable to understanding the game, and strikes me as answerable.
SI, May 2019: Lots of coaches go on record talking about the times they've let it ride, particularly at the very end of the game, and seen players execute and win. D'Antoni asserts: "There are no analytics that really proves that if you call a timeout, it stops the run of the other team," he says. "Actually, there's evidence that doesn't support that." Or some other prominent names:
Vice, Dec 2015:
So what about actual scientific approaches to the question?
Econ PhD Thesis on the subject, 2011: "This paper explores the claim that timeouts enhance short-term performance following a series of negative events". It covered a sample of ~3700 games from 2006-2009. Its conclusions: once you control for the fact that a team calling timeout after giving up a run starts the next possession with the ball, and for home-court advantage generally, there is a small positive effect of timeouts for momentum-stopping purposes, with teams scoring ~0.5 more out of the next 10 points scored than the similarly-situated teams who did not call timeout. However, there's also plenty of mean reversion: teams who give up runs tend to outscore their opponent following those runs anyway, rather than let it continue to snowball, as you would frankly expect with the results of possessions being fully stochastic.
arXiv paper July 2021: these guys conclude the opposite, or rather, have a stronger conclusion based on asking the question better. Using what seems like a better technique, they conclude that letting players play through it is more advantageous than calling a timeout.
Based on those, I think we can agree that me drawing a conclusion in the other direction was largely bullshit. Thanks for sending me in that direction.
I really, really wonder how much of this year's perceived closing issues boil down to: "closing close games in the NBA is hard, you don't win them all, and the great regular season teams are usually great because they whomp the opposition and don't have many close games."
The Celtics have had plenty of good late wins this year, maybe even more than their fair share. If you're going to handwring after a B2B road loss, missing 4 of the top 7 guys, the NBA regular season just might not be the sport for you. (general statement; I'm not subtweeting anyone in particular)
I am wondering for games that are within 2 possessions (6 points) with 2 minutes remaining, what are the relative impacts of the following in the eventual outcome:I think it’s important to recognize that most teams struggle to close out games……bc closing out NBA games against end of game defense is really freakin hard.
That’s what happens to star players in OT games when you have a soft scheduling stretch. LeBron played 44. We won…..and have the next 3 days off.That’s the second time in five games that Tatum has played 41 straight minutes, that’s just not good lol.