Juan Soto is on the trade block; rejects $440 million contract extension from Washington

Sad Sam Jones

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This all sounds to me (except for the trade part) like a conversation about Frank Thomas 30 years ago.
 

nighthob

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Corbin would be deal breaker for me. He is a terrible pitcher and the money tied up on him would prevent other moves. And you would almost be forced to put a garbage SP into your rotation. Double whammy.
But what if Xander and Corbin got you Justin Turner and Miguel Vargas from LA? (Assuming that Casas was part of the Soto package that lets you shift Raffi to 1B long term).
 

nighthob

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Are you certain he's on the market in 2 years if he goes to a big-payroll team this season? The "well Mookie's going for Free Agency and isn't going to extend" theory/talking point evaporated within 6 months.
Yeah, if you’re Boston, Soto’s favorite team, having him for 2+ years pretty much guarantees that you’ll be able to extend. In a bidding war you only get to talk to his agent, but if he’s yours you get to talk to him daily. Get him to Boston and he ain’t going anywhere.
 

moondog80

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I'd be shocked if Washington made taking on Corbin a requirement of the deal. 60 million for nothing, it would mean a massive reduction in the prospects coming back. It's a top third revenue team, they can afford to keep him around while they collect prospects and rebuild. If anything, they should offer to take Sale on as well just to get more cost controlled talent back and then spend like drunken sailors in a couple of years..
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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But what if Xander and Corbin got you Justin Turner and Miguel Vargas from LA? (Assuming that Casas was part of the Soto package that lets you shift Raffi to 1B long term).
LA is going to take on 2/$60 of Corbin to get < half season of Bogaerts? Why would they even need X when they have Trea?

SD seems like a much more logical destination for Bogaerts, should the Sox go that route. Or STL.
 

nighthob

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In theory to move to 3B to complete their MLB all star team. (And they'd clearly have the money to re-sign him, I don't think that thought enters the equation for them at all.)
 

nighthob

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I'd be shocked if Washington made taking on Corbin a requirement of the deal. 60 million for nothing, it would mean a massive reduction in the prospects coming back. It's a top third revenue team, they can afford to keep him around while they collect prospects and rebuild. If anything, they should offer to take Sale on as well just to get more cost controlled talent back and then spend like drunken sailors in a couple of years..
I agree that that's more likely (and still unlikely). I'd imagine that Soto's acquisition cost for Boston would begin with Casas, Bello, and Jordan with a lottery ticket or two (like Lugo) plus some guys that are going to get caught in the 40 man crunch this winter. From Boston's perspective I'd probably prefer to play Soto in LF and since Verdugo is so mediocre/bad at not LF I'd try include him in place of Jordan.
 

chawson

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Remember that the shift is gone next year, so Soto’s numbers will get an additional boost going forward.

If there’s a knock on him, it’s his somewhat elevated ground ball rate. That’s resulted in the shift being fairly effective against him. He’s shifted on in 56 percent of his PAs. With the rule change in effect next year, he’d stand to be an even more valuable hitter than he has been.

‘20-22
No shift: .469 wOBA
Shift: .386 wOBA

This, to me, also complicates the comparisons of Soto to Votto’s early years, or pretty much anyone besides his contemporaries. Soto has played his entire career in the advanced shift eta, and he’s still put up a 175 wRC+ before turning 24.
 
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YTF

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I doubt the Sox can offer (or be willing to offer) the best package, but I’ll be extremely disappointed in ownership/Chaim if they don’t at least give this a real shot.

Someone mentioned upthread, but he’s not gonna sign an extension with the trade most likely , so I understand it’s hard to trade multiple top prospects for 2 plus years of control, but with a guy like this you’ve got to give this a go.
OK, so let's suppose that the Sox land Soto at the deadline. Let's not even worry about the exact package of prospects that it takes to get him, what do you think 2 plus years of Soto looks like. I don'r see much upside for this season. Sure he solves a big ? In the outfield, but first base and the pen are still an issue and the boost we expected from getting Sale back isn't going to happen. It makes no sense to me to trade what little you might have left in the farm (assuming there's anything left that other teams value) to try to bolster the rest of the needs for this season so Soto's not likely to do much for you this year. And if you think we have needs now, wait until next season rolls around. Both catchers are FAs as are Martinez, Hernandez, RFsnyder, Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill and Strahm. On top of that, Bogaerts is likely to opt out and some of the in house talent that may have been used to replace some of these guys will likely have been included in the deal to bring Soto in. So in addition to possibly not being of much help this season, he's likely going to have to endure a rebuild of sorts next year. If that's the case we now look at 2024 possibly being the end of the Soto era in Boston. Can Bloom retool this team quickly enough to take full advantage of the trade that he made? Will Soto see enough to persuade him to extend? And I haven't even mentioned Devers yet. With much of the future possibly traded off for Soto, might the ability to extend Soto influence Dever's impending extension/free agency decision? I mean if Soto gives a strong indication that he's going to test the market, what incentive would Devers have to stay with Soto walking and little left in the farm?
 

moondog80

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The Sox can pay both Devers and Soto and have their remaining payroll be higher than the total payroll for about half the league.
 

Petey Bienel

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I'd be shocked if Washington made taking on Corbin a requirement of the deal. 60 million for nothing, it would mean a massive reduction in the prospects coming back. It's a top third revenue team, they can afford to keep him around while they collect prospects and rebuild. If anything, they should offer to take Sale on as well just to get more cost controlled talent back and then spend like drunken sailors in a couple of years..
this is right. After a Soto trade, the Nationals will have no long term pieces in their lineup other than Keibert Ruiz. If you squint, Luis Garcia might have an MLB bat, and Victor Robles can field. Other than that, they really do not have a position prospect much closer than high A. Using the Fangraphs system ranking, they do not have a non-catcher position player with a grade of 40 or higher with an ETA before 2024. They do have some plausible near term rotation pieces (Cavalli, Henry, Rutledge, maybe some dark horses). this is a very bad team, so they need position players.

They are not in a position like the Red Sox were when they forced LA to take on Price to get Mookie. The Sox had a number of pieces in place and were over if not hard up against the CBT threshold. The Sox wanted some space to do clever signings. The Nats could actually take on more salary rather than dump the $60 million owed Corbin over the next 2 years. As bad as he's been since 2019, Corbin still eats innings (sort of) and is better than the assorted rotation filler they have until Cavalli and Henry are up with Gray (and Fedde?). For the next 2 year, they have only Strasburg's and Corbin's contracts as fixed obligations. They don't really need salary relief, and there's almost no combination of prospects they could get back for Soto, Cruz, Bell, and some relief arms that would advance their next contention window to before 2025 (when Corbin's contract expires and some of their low A prospects are projected to be up).
 

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There are very few players I would “give anything” to get. Soto is one of those players. If it costs Mayer and Bello with other parts, so be it. After the first couple of rounds of this years draft I think we have about 48 shortstops to take the place of Xander. Mayer is projected to be very good. Soto IS very good.

I’d like us to trade for him now and move JDM, Evoldi, Xander if he’s willing to waive NTC for a shot at a ring, and anyone else that will net a decent MLB-ready player or (better yet) solid prospect or two. Build around Devers and Soto with long-term deals and enjoy.

With the extra wild card slots around, I’d think the price for guys like these will be higher than previously from teams who think a rental is all they need to get them over the hump.
 

chawson

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The Sox can pay both Devers and Soto and have their remaining payroll be higher than the total payroll for about half the league.
Seconded. I’m shocked at the opposition to obtaining a player that people are going to tell stories about for decades.

The end of the shift makes Soto’s career projections a lot better. And people are freaking out about 15/$440M as though the market won’t adjust and leaguewide salaries aren’t also going to increase substantially with the higher CBT threshold.
 

BigSoxFan

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There are very few players I would “give anything” to get. Soto is one of those players. If it costs Mayer and Bello with other parts, so be it. After the first couple of rounds of this years draft I think we have about 48 shortstops to take the place of Xander. Mayer is projected to be very good. Soto IS very good.

I’d like us to trade for him now and move JDM, Evoldi, Xander if he’s willing to waive NTC for a shot at a ring, and anyone else that will net a decent MLB-ready player or (better yet) solid prospect or two. Build around Devers and Soto with long-term deals and enjoy.

With the extra wild card slots around, I’d think the price for guys like these will be higher than previously from teams who think a rental is all they need to get them over the hump.
I like the way you think and I’d be on board. If our farm system/Chaim’s drafting is as good as we think/hope, we can afford losing 2-3 top tier prospects without going into an absolute tailspin. Mayer is a top 10 prospect. If he were on the table, I bet you could hold onto Casas. Soto would be such a star in Boston and having him and Devers for the next decade would be great entertainment.

I don’t like the Angels analogy because that organization is a joke and I’d have confidence that Chaim could build a good team around those guys, especially with Sale’s contract off the books before Soto’s new extension kicks in.
 

Apisith

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It’s strange that there's no action from the Angels re: Ohtani, because this is exactly what they should be doing. Fangraphs has their farm system ranked 28th, so they have really have no shot at competing for the next few years. Time to start a full rebuild and get a nice haul from Ohtani (and I would do for Trout as well).
 

Murderer's Crow

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I like the way you think and I’d be on board. If our farm system/Chaim’s drafting is as good as we think/hope, we can afford losing 2-3 top tier prospects without going into an absolute tailspin. Mayer is a top 10 prospect. If he were on the table, I bet you could hold onto Casas. Soto would be such a star in Boston and having him and Devers for the next decade would be great entertainment.

I don’t like the Angels analogy because that organization is a joke and I’d have confidence that Chaim could build a good team around those guys, especially with Sale’s contract off the books before Soto’s new extension kicks in.
I think the issue is we have no idea what it would take to land Soto. They are going to want top tier prospects and major league ready talent. If they are going to trade a 23 year old mega star jersey seller, franchise talent, they aren’t doing it for a single top 10 prospect and some goodies. I genuinely think this trade will set a franchise’s farm back quite a bit.

From the Yankees perspective, I’ve been trying to work out whether we can maintain any sort of payroll flexibility while keeping Judge and extending Soto. It’ll be a very rough 3-4 years but it’s doable. They lose Donaldson, Rizzo, Gallo, Chapman, Britton, and Taillon over the next 2 seasons and have to decide what to do with Gleyber, 3B, and 1B. Stanton also will be working toward the end of his agreement soon but until that’s gone, it will be pretty tight.

From a farm perspective, we have the pieces and then some, but Volpe and/or Peraza are part of the plan to fill out the roster. If we deal from pitching, there’s a lot for the Nats to choose from but no ready to go ace. Also, I think Cashman has to use some prospect capital for a pitcher this deadline. Im not sure he will truly gut the system but if we want the Sotos of the world, you gotta feel the pain. Maybe the Nats like Gleyber?
 

Wingack

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It’s strange that there's no action from the Angels re: Ohtani, because this is exactly what they should be doing. Fangraphs has their farm system ranked 28th, so they have really have no shot at competing for the next few years. Time to start a full rebuild and get a nice haul from Ohtani (and I would do for Trout as well).
Isn't the Angels farm system always ranked 28th?
 

jon abbey

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From the Yankees perspective, I’ve been trying to work out whether we can maintain any sort of payroll flexibility while keeping Judge and extending Soto. It’ll be a very rough 3-4 years but it’s doable. They lose Donaldson, Rizzo, Gallo, Chapman, Britton, and Taillon over the next 2 seasons and have to decide what to do with Gleyber, 3B, and 1B. Stanton also will be working toward the end of his agreement soon but until that’s gone, it will be pretty tight.
There is so much we don't know and here that starts with whether or not Cashman will get the go-ahead to Steve Cohen the payroll if he thinks that is the smartest way to go. If there is an international draft instituted, I think that will remove a big reason for NY to stay under the top tax line as they mostly have.

And of course the second part here is what NY would have to give up to actually get Soto. If it is my proposal of Volpe/Dominguez and 4-5 high ceiling pitchers, NY would still have a bunch of young guys to try to slot in around the big contracts.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think the issue is we have no idea what it would take to land Soto. They are going to want top tier prospects and major league ready talent. If they are going to trade a 23 year old mega star jersey seller, franchise talent, they aren’t doing it for a single top 10 prospect and some goodies. I genuinely think this trade will set a franchise’s farm back quite a bit.

From the Yankees perspective, I’ve been trying to work out whether we can maintain any sort of payroll flexibility while keeping Judge and extending Soto. It’ll be a very rough 3-4 years but it’s doable. They lose Donaldson, Rizzo, Gallo, Chapman, Britton, and Taillon over the next 2 seasons and have to decide what to do with Gleyber, 3B, and 1B. Stanton also will be working toward the end of his agreement soon but until that’s gone, it will be pretty tight.

From a farm perspective, we have the pieces and then some, but Volpe and/or Peraza are part of the plan to fill out the roster. If we deal from pitching, there’s a lot for the Nats to choose from but no ready to go ace. Also, I think Cashman has to use some prospect capital for a pitcher this deadline. Im not sure he will truly gut the system but if we want the Sotos of the world, you gotta feel the pain. Maybe the Nats like Gleyber?
It’ll definitely be a hit to anyone’s system but you’d be getting a young star for 2+ years, at a minimum. It all comes down to price. There will likely be many teams who don’t want to meet whatever price the Nationals set because they know they won’t be able to sign him long term.

If the Yankees and Sox are ever going to stretch their payrolls behind the levels of the last couple of years, now is the time. He is such a difference maker and is so young.
 

sodenj5

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It’ll definitely be a hit to anyone’s system but you’d be getting a young star for 2+ years, at a minimum. It all comes down to price. There will likely be many teams who don’t want to meet whatever price the Nationals set because they know they won’t be able to sign him long term.

If the Yankees and Sox are ever going to stretch their payrolls behind the levels of the last couple of years, now is the time. He is such a difference maker and is so young.
I think people also underestimate how extraordinarily rare it is to have a guy that’s 23 and already on a superstar, potentially HOF trajectory, become available. I would say the comp is Miguel Cabrera. That trade was 15 years ago.

Typically superstars that move are on the tail end of their prime. Their original team likely already saw their best and certainly most cost efficient years. Their contracts become an albatross because they’re getting paid for what the accomplished in the past.

Juan Soto has the entirety of his prime ahead of him. Look at what the Tigers gave up for Cabrera. Do you think anyone in Detroit was mourning the loss of Andrew Miller and Dontrelle Willis when Miggy was winning back to back MVPs?

Soto is the guy you break all the rules for.
 
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Yaz4Ever

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I think people also underestimate how extraordinarily rare it is to have a guy that’s 23 and already on a superstar, potentially HOF trajectory, become available. I would say the comp is Miguel Cabrera. That trade was 15 years ago.

Typically superstars that move are on the tail end of their prime. Their original team likely already saw their best and certainly most cost efficient years. Their contracts become an albatross because they’re getting paid for what the accomplished in the past.

Juan Soto has the entirety of his prime ahead of him. Look at what the Tigers gave up for Cabrera. Do you think anyone in Detroit was mourning the loss of Andrew Miller and Dontrelle Willis when Miggy was winning back to back MVPs?

Soto is the guy you break all the rules for.
This. And Cabrera was over 18 months older than what Soto is now at the time of the trade.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think people also underestimate how extraordinarily rare it is to have a guy that’s 23 and already on a superstar, potentially HOF trajectory, become available. I would say the comp is Miguel Cabrera. That trade was 15 years ago.

Typically superstars that move are on the tail end of their prime. Their original team likely already saw their best and certainly most cost efficient years. Their contracts become an albatross because they’re getting paid for what the accomplished in the past.

Juan Soto has the entirety of his prime ahead of him. Look at what the Tigers gave up for Cabrera. Do you think anyone in Detroit was mourning the loss of Andrew Miller and Dontrelle Willis when Miggy was winning back to back MVPs?

Soto is the guy you break all the rules for.
Agreed. Whatever the fair market value of his FA contract will ultimately be generally worth it unless he suffers some kind of major injury. He’s exactly the kind of guy you splurge on and stretch the payroll for. Losing Mayer, Casas, more would obviously hurt the farm in the short-term but you have to trust Chaim to rebuild, which he’s already shown an ability to do.

Soto’s age is exactly why I would be extremely aggressive here. It’s such a unique opportunity.
 

sean1562

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While elite prospects can turn into the foundation of your franchise, many of the very best prospects fail to turn into the stars they are projected to be. Just looking at MLB's Top 100 prospects from 2020, there are countless busts within the top 20.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/top100/

3. MacKenzie Gore(I know it may be too early to call him a bust, but two years after he was the third ranked prospect in baseball, expectations have dropped dramatically)
6. Nate Pearson
7. Royce Lewis
9. Jarred Kelenic
10. Christian Pache
11. Joey Bart(again, maybe he is a serviceable major leaguer in the future but a star that you wouldn't include in a Juan Soto package?)
16. Austin Martin(prospect ranking dropped to mid 50s)
17. Forrest Whitley


Wander Franco, Dylan Carlson, and Julio Rodriguez all look like they will be good to great major league players. But there is a pretty solid chance that of the group of coveted prospects we have, some of them will not hit their ceilings and some of them may bust entirely. 2.5 years is a decent amount of time for other prospects to emerge, for some of the younger international free agents signed years ago to develop and emerge as top prospects. For a team like the Dodgers, that has done such a great job building their development pipeline to be consistently churning out big time prospects, cashing in some prospects for one of the best young hitters in the history of baseball is probably a pretty good gamble.
 

sodenj5

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While elite prospects can turn into the foundation of your franchise, many of the very best prospects fail to turn into the stars they are projected to be. Just looking at MLB's Top 100 prospects from 2020, there are countless busts within the top 20.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/top100/

3. MacKenzie Gore(I know it may be too early to call him a bust, but two years after he was the third ranked prospect in baseball, expectations have dropped dramatically)
6. Nate Pearson
7. Royce Lewis
9. Jarred Kelenic
10. Christian Pache
11. Joey Bart(again, maybe he is a serviceable major leaguer in the future but a star that you wouldn't include in a Juan Soto package?)
16. Austin Martin(prospect ranking dropped to mid 50s)
17. Forrest Whitley


Wander Franco, Dylan Carlson, and Julio Rodriguez all look like they will be good to great major league players. But there is a pretty solid chance that of the group of coveted prospects we have, some of them will not hit their ceilings and some of them may bust entirely. 2.5 years is a decent amount of time for other prospects to emerge, for some of the younger international free agents signed years ago to develop and emerge as top prospects. For a team like the Dodgers, that has done such a great job building their development pipeline to be consistently churning out big time prospects, cashing in some prospects for one of the best young hitters in the history of baseball is probably a pretty good gamble.
We all want to see Casas, Bello, and Mayer reach their full potential on the Sox, but Juan Soto already is their wildest projections realized at the major league level.

There is no grouping of prospects that I would blink at shipping to Washington for Soto. Take them all. Take Duran and Bobby D too.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Cabrera has also been replacement level or worse for the last six seasons.
I don't disagree with this. I'm still willing to give up Mayer and Bello and sign him to a 15 year deal (if he insists on that length) and will be thrilled with 10-12 years of his current performance waning down to what Cabrera is now for the last few.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Cabrera deal would have been fine had Dombrowski not given him the unnecessary golden parachute extension which started in ‘16.
 

BigSoxFan

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Totally, which is why a 15 year deal is nuts. That could be like four presidents from now, a lot can happen and most of it isn’t good.
I doubt a 15 year deal would be needed here anyways. And Miggy’s back end of the deal aged so poorly because he, quite frankly, let his body go. I guess that risk would also be present for Soto but he seems to have a more athletic body type than a young Miggy.
 

Kliq

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The thing about the Miggy contract is that the Tigers were going to have to rebuild anyway so it didn't really matter that he was grossly overpaid over the final years. I suppose if he had a more tradeable contract, he could have been flipped for prospects to help speed the rebuild up, but ultimately I don't think a lot of harm has been done with his deal. The Tigers fans I know are happy that he's stuck around and him getting to some milestones the past few seasons have been a reason to watch a rebuilding team.
 

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The advantage of hitting free agency that young is that at least the player is getting paid for prime production years.

Signing to Soto for 15 years will surely mean some years of lean production. That will always happen and the only fix will be to pay the players their money at an earlier stage. Not happening for some time.

Meanwhile, a player of the likes of Soto will command these deals.

I too, would tell the Nationals to choose who they want from EVERYONE in the minors (and would throw some major leaguers in the shopping list too. He is that good.
 

Kliq

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Being a Nationals fan must be a tough beat. They did win that title which makes a lot of it easier; but you look at all that talent they've had, a lot of it homegrown (Harper, Soto, Turner, Rendon, Strasburg, Scherzer) and the only one it looks like atm they will have retained for the long haul is Strasburg, who they never should have paid.
 

BigSoxFan

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Being a Nationals fan must be a tough beat. They did win that title which makes a lot of it easier; but you look at all that talent they've had, a lot of it homegrown (Harper, Soto, Turner, Rendon, Strasburg, Scherzer) and the only one it looks like atm they will have retained for the long haul is Strasburg, who they never should have paid.
Yup. They had such a high concentration of elite talent there. It’s too bad that we didn’t get to see that lineup together for longer. What’s more amazing is that they lost all those guys and have very little to show for it. I’m sure the Soto return will be nice on paper but we’ll see what it ultimately yields.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Yup. They had such a high concentration of elite talent there. It’s too bad that we didn’t get to see that lineup together for longer. What’s more amazing is that they lost all those guys and have very little to show for it. I’m sure the Soto return will be nice on paper but we’ll see what it ultimately yields.
Is it too late to send the Swihart and Owens?
 

jon abbey

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What's equally amazing is how close that 2019 WAS team was to fizzling out multiple times. They famously started the season off slow at 32-38, they were in danger of missing the playoffs with a week to go in the regular season, they were losing the wild card game 3-1 in the 8th before scoring 3 off Hader (the top NL reliever that year), they were down 2 games to 1 in the 5 game NLDS to the superior Dodgers, and they were losing game 7 of the WS 2-0 to HOU after 6.

The only point there is basically no matter how loaded you are, you can easily not win it all.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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I'm pretty sure I'd weather a decade in the abyss just fine if it followed a Cleveland World Series Championship (that would describe most of my first decade of being a fan anyway). Doing it "Marlins style" would be a tough pill to swallow, though.
 

chawson

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Totally, which is why a 15 year deal is nuts. That could be like four presidents from now, a lot can happen and most of it isn’t good.
Can you say what bad thing you think could happen?

The Sox can spend $281 million in 2025 before incurring any sort of roster-building penalty, and even that penalty is quite modest. And we don't know what the 2026 CBA will look like, but I'm fairly confident it will raise the luxury tax even further.

Say the Sox sign Juan Soto -- a 23-year-old hitter by every indication primed to have one of the best couple dozen careers in MLB history who happens to have grown up idolizing the three greatest Red Sox players of this century -- to a 15/$500M deal. Why is it so devastating that we might be stuck paying him 9 percent of our team's salary in like, 2031?
 

Max Power

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Can you say what bad thing you think could happen?

The Sox can spend $281 million in 2025 before incurring any sort of roster-building penalty, and even that penalty is quite modest. And we don't know what the 2026 CBA will look like, but I'm fairly confident it will raise the luxury tax even further.

Say the Sox sign Juan Soto -- a 23-year-old hitter by every indication primed to have one of the best couple dozen careers in MLB history who happens to have grown up idolizing the three greatest Red Sox players of this century -- to a 15/$500M deal. Why is it so devastating that we might be stuck paying him 9 percent of our team's salary in like, 2031?
I don't think anyone would have a problem paying him 9 percent of the payroll in 2031. It's that he'd still be under contract in 2038. That's like 2 or 3 CBAs down the road. It seems crazy that anyone would sign an agreement for that long with so many unknowns.
 

moondog80

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I don't think anyone would have a problem paying him 9 percent of the payroll in 2031. It's that he'd still be under contract in 2038. That's like 2 or 3 CBAs down the road. It seems crazy that anyone would sign an agreement for that long with so many unknowns.
15 years sounds crazy but these mega long deals do come with a relatively smaller AAV. It was over 20 years ago when A-Rod signed for 25 mil AAV (with a Rangers' payroll just over 100 mil). I thought we'd be at least at 40 mil per by now, but instead it's the years being extended. Would they be better paying say, 400 mil for 10 years?
 
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Washington, DC
Does anyone think that Soto turned for 440/15 because of the AAV or the term or the total? Or does he simply want out of Nats-town? Seems to me that $440/13 might solve the former. Or $400/12. Something like that.
Jesse Dougherty, the Nationals beat writer at the Post, said that Soto/Boras were looking for a 10 year+ deal with a record total value (above Trout’s $426.5 million) and an AAV in the ballpark of the biggest long term deals (i.e., around $36 million). So, something like $440/12.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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I don't think anyone would have a problem paying him 9 percent of the payroll in 2031. It's that he'd still be under contract in 2038. That's like 2 or 3 CBAs down the road. It seems crazy that anyone would sign an agreement for that long with so many unknowns.
That's a lot of weight to assign those unknowns. Paying Bogaerts that kind of money through 2038? I'm with you. Any pitcher? Of course. But Soto has the best plate discipline in baseball at 23, and we know that plate discipline is the last skill to decline. He’ll be 40 in 2038. There would also be no shift (as far as we can tell), which is a plus for him.

The risk looks to me that Soto might put up an OBP-heavy .750 OPS or so as a DH in 2038. But it's not a sure bet it would be that bad. Ken Griffey Jr., one of few hitting comps for Soto, sustained a ton of injuries (and lost a ton of value) playing center field until age-37, but he still put up an wOBA in the .360s until he turned 38. Jim Thome, maybe the only recent hitter with a batting eye comparable to Soto who played into his 40s, put up a .283/.412/.627 line in his age-39 season. Chipper Jones was still very good, Todd Helton was still playable. David Ortiz was a monster. Soto, at this age, compares favorably to all these guys.

Another potential factor is that JWH will likely be dead by the time Soto is 40, and this ownership group probably doesn't own the team. Bloom has almost certainly moved on too. Even if something freakish happens to Soto that somehow ends his career a decade short, I think from a legacy perspective it will be seen as the right move to acquire him, from what we know right now. If you have a chance to get 23-year-old Ted Williams, you do it.
 
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Lose Remerswaal

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Does anyone think that Soto turned for 440/15 because of the AAV or the term or the total? Or does he simply want out of Nats-town? Seems to me that $440/13 might solve the former. Or $400/12. Something like that.
$29.333 Million AAV isn't Top 10 in MLB right now. It would be 11. AKA "Rapidly passed by more deals in the next few years". Of course the money is obscene, but I don't blame him for turning that down
 

moondog80

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Sep 20, 2005
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$29.333 Million AAV isn't Top 10 in MLB right now. It would be 11. AKA "Rapidly passed by more deals in the next few years". Of course the money is obscene, but I don't blame him for turning that down
Yep. As I eluded to be bringing up A-Rod's deal, given how revenues have grown we are well overdue for a seismic shift in the top end of the salary structure. Within reason, I'd be OK with the Sox doing that with Soto.
 

8slim

has trust issues
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Nov 6, 2001
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We all want to see Casas, Bello, and Mayer reach their full potential on the Sox, but Juan Soto already is their wildest projections realized at the major league level.

There is no grouping of prospects that I would blink at shipping to Washington for Soto. Take them all. Take Duran and Bobby D too.
These discussions always remind me of the Garnett trade in the summer of 2007. A not insignificant number of people were very concerned about letting Al Jefferson go in that deal, thinking he was on the precipice of becoming a star. I just kept thinking that the Cs would be getting a player that has already realized the potential that we were fervently wishing that Jefferson might achieve. So yeah, empty the farm for a guy like Soto.